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Securing water in a changing climate Declan Conway d.conway@uea.ac.uk


Characteristics of precipitation; state, timing, amount, intensity Snowmelt, glacial melt

Evaporative demand; higher temperatures, changes in radiation, humidity and windspeed

Milly et al. 2007 Science

Effects on land cover

Effects on blue water; flows, timing, frequency of extremes, etc. Groundwater recharge

Slow onset sea level rise, storm surges, saltwater intrusion, etc.

Figure source – Falkenmark and Rockstrom, 2004


Three decades of research: From impacts to adaptation 1. 

Nemec and Schaake (1982) Sensitivity of water resource systems to climate variation

2. 

Mid 1980s – consolidation of methods

3. 

Mid 1990s – move to adaptation 600 climate change impacts water (Scopus) climate change water adaptation (Scopus)

400 300 200

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

0

1991

100

1990

Number of publications

500


Research in the 2000s: Divergent themes 1.  Scenario development (downscaling, etc.) 2.  Characterising uncertainty –  Probabilistic scenarios –  Other sources of uncertainty

3.  Decision-making under uncertainty –  Robustness, flexibility, adaptive management, etc.

4.  Institutional and policy context –  Detailed case studies of management


Future variability and extremes; how to characterise?

Evaporation: how important and where?

Water security and climate change: Five questions…….. How to achieve integration? Moving from CC as single issue….

To what extent is climate change ‘just another exogenous issue’? How to link research and practice? Figure source – Falkenmark and Rockstrom, 2004

Securing water in a changing climate  

Professor Declan Conway, University of East Anglia, UK ---Securing water in a changing climate--- Impacts of global change on water security...

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