Securing water in a changing climate Declan Conway email@example.com
Characteristics of precipitation; state, timing, amount, intensity Snowmelt, glacial melt
Evaporative demand; higher temperatures, changes in radiation, humidity and windspeed
Milly et al. 2007 Science
Effects on land cover
Effects on blue water; flows, timing, frequency of extremes, etc. Groundwater recharge
Slow onset sea level rise, storm surges, saltwater intrusion, etc.
Figure source â€“ Falkenmark and Rockstrom, 2004
Three decades of research: From impacts to adaptation 1.
Nemec and Schaake (1982) Sensitivity of water resource systems to climate variation
Mid 1980s – consolidation of methods
Mid 1990s – move to adaptation 600 climate change impacts water (Scopus) climate change water adaptation (Scopus)
400 300 200
Number of publications
Research in the 2000s: Divergent themes 1. Scenario development (downscaling, etc.) 2. Characterising uncertainty – Probabilistic scenarios – Other sources of uncertainty
3. Decision-making under uncertainty – Robustness, flexibility, adaptive management, etc.
4. Institutional and policy context – Detailed case studies of management
Future variability and extremes; how to characterise?
Evaporation: how important and where?
Water security and climate change: Five questions…….. How to achieve integration? Moving from CC as single issue….
To what extent is climate change ‘just another exogenous issue’? How to link research and practice? Figure source – Falkenmark and Rockstrom, 2004
Professor Declan Conway, University of East Anglia, UK ---Securing water in a changing climate--- Impacts of global change on water security...