Analysis of Global Change Assessments: Lessons Learned http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11868.html CASE STUDIES OF GLOBAL CHANGE ASSESSMENTS
69
Communicating Scientific Knowledge Accurately and Effectively. Communication of the results of the ozone assessments was simpler than was the case for many other global change assessments because the decision makers and key stakeholders were well defined and limited in number. Inclusion of most of the scientists directly involved relevant research in the process and impact assessments and of the technology leaders in the TEAP ensured communication with scientists and companies. Adequate communication of findings to regulators was ensured by distributing the reports to government decision makers and following up with presentations by scientists leading the processes at international meetings and before government bodies. Environmental organizations and the media helped communicate the results to the general public. The presentation of assessment conclusions has grown increasingly sophisticated over time. The 1985 stratospheric ozone assessment did not even have an executive summary whereas recent assessment reports have carefully prepared summaries, viewgraphs, talking points, and associated nontechnical publications, such as “Common Questions about Ozone,” that summarize current knowledge in commonsense terms and implicitly address any current attempts to mislead or obscure the consensus. These assessments have continued to exercise substantial influence over policy discussions, influencing multiple revisions of the treaty. One important flaw in the stratospheric ozone assessments is that there has been no consistent treatment of uncertainties across the assessment panels or even within individual panels. Perhaps the most important advance in avoiding the political pitfalls associated with characterizing uncertainties was the development of a measure called “effective equivalent stratospheric chlorine” (EESC, a weighted combination of anthropogenic chlorine and bromine) that can serve as the key metric for monitoring progress in ozone protection. After establishing the links between ozonedepleting substances and ozone depletion and between ozone depletion and health and environmental impacts, the scientific assessment panel used the level of EESC above a designated threshold as a measure of risk. With this metric, they could present policy options in the form of EESC curves illustrating a series of possible regulatory options. Guiding Plans for Future Activities. The character of the most important questions related to ozone has shifted over time, as the policy regime and the state of knowledge have advanced. First, it was critical to demonstrate authoritatively the seriousness of the issue by projecting the magnitude of future ozone loss under a wide range of emissions scenarios without control (WMO 1986a). Then, the emphasis shifted to presenting more precise quantitative projections of future impacts of specific alternative decisions that policy makers were considering. And recently, the major objective has
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.