Douglas’s team at OCCIAR combined information from several sources to develop this new tool:
• •
•
Specific farming data from OMAFRA. The Land Suitability Rating System (LSRS), an existing tool that includes consideration of landscape, soil, and climate variables. The Climate Change Hazards Information Portal (CCHIP), developed by Risk Sciences International (RSI), which projects changes including change in growing degree days in the farming regions of Canada and how they are expected to change into the future.
In order to understand climate change risks, it’s important to conduct risk assessments for specific commodities and in specific regions because impacts vary across the province. For this project, OCCIAR examined climate impacts on timothy production in the clay belt in Northern Ontario and corn production in the Chatham-Kent region of Southern Ontario out to 2050. Timothy Production in the Clay Belt The Centre looked at historic relationships between climate and timothy production, then incorporated projections of climate change to understand impacts and changes in yield. Climate change is usually measured in 20-30 year periods, called normals periods, to establish a baseline for comparison to future climate pattern projections. In the clay belt region, two recent normals periods, from 1951-1980 and 1981-2010, show an increase in average annual temperature of about 1-2˚C and an increase in annual average rainfall. Looking ahead to the 2050s, projections suggest that the annual temperature will increase a further 2-3˚C and that it will continue to get wetter. To determine the impact of climate factors on timothy production, OCCIAR used previous research on timothy production related to growing degree days and considered important limiting factors for timothy growth, such as fall hardening (cold days in fall that harden plants for winter can benefit production) and winter thaw days (above freezing in winter can cause damage). The calculations suggest that by 2050 the growing
season will increase by about 50 days and the LSRS score will move from a Class 5 (very severe limitation) to a Class 3 (moderate limitation). This will likely mean that on average, two—and possibly even three—cuttings of timothy/forages per season will be possible in this region—an overall estimated yield increase of 30%. Corn Production in Southern Ontario OCCIAR also studied the impacts of climate change on corn production in Chatham-Kent, the southern tip of the province. In their calculations, they primarily considered crop heat units, potential evaporation, growing season length, and excess spring/fall moisture. They also incorporated five extreme event indices that are limiting for corn, such as early flooding or drought at certain growth stages, based on previous research. Calculations suggest that average temperature in the Chatham-Kent region will increase by 3˚C and annual precipitation will increase by about 6% by the 2050s. However, when accounting for seasonal differences, OCCIAR anticipates that summer months will experience increased drought conditions because the impact of evaporation will undo any extra precipitation. The growing season will likely increase by 30 days. The projected increase in temperature also means that what is currently considered Class 1 on the LSRS score will become Class 2, with some limitations due to the increased heat and resulting dryness in summer. However, based on the increase in heat units alone, OCCIAR anticipates a 41% increase in corn yield. Adaptation Having established the scientific picture of expected changes, the project team then developed 15 adaptation recommendations for timothy production and 12 adaptation recommendations for corn production in the regions studied. These include recommendations around soil health, water management, and increased research and knowledge exchange. The recommendations are valuable both to policy makers and to farmers and farm organizations to encourage discussion of what changes need to be implemented in order to sustain or maintain current levels of production in the context of changing climate.