Pacheco, Plutzer / Teen Life Transitions and Voter Turnout
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We added the 1994 adult life transitions and educational attainment in Model 3 to determine whether dropping out of high school and never returning lowered Black turnout because of a decreased opportunity to achieve later educational attainment. The third model for Blacks shows that much of the impact of dropping out of high school and never returning on turnout acts through higher educational attainment.7 The coefficient for the dropouts who never returned decreased in size and is no longer significant at the traditional levels. Last, both college enrollment variables are significant and substantively large; however, 2-year college enrollment has a larger impact than 4-year college enrollment.8 Respondents who attended a 2-year college fulltime have levels of voter turnout that are 20% higher than those who did not attend. Similarly, young Blacks who are enrolled in a 4-year college full-time have levels of voter turnout that are 8% higher compared to those respondents who are not enrolled.9
Hispanics The analyses for Hispanics are presented in the last three columns of Table 2. In Model 1, neither early parenthood nor early marriage has a significant effect on Hispanic youth voter turnout. These variables remain insignificant when we estimate the model separately for males and females. Model 2 examines dropping out, and the results for Hispanics are similar to those of African Americans, with those who never earn a degree having turnout levels roughly 12% lower than those completing a degree without interruption. The effect of dropping out but later returning is neither significantly different from zero nor significantly different from permanent dropouts.10 Model 3 shows that 4-year college enrollment has a very large effect on Hispanics’ turnout (a 14% increase for full-time enrollment), whereas 2-year college enrollment has no significant impact on turnout levels. The coefficient for those dropouts who never returned decreases by about one third but remains significant.11 This implies that similar to White respondents, dropping out of high school by 12th grade has a large net effect on Hispanic youth voter turnout that is only partially accounted for by later educational attainment.12
Self-Selection? Can the observed results, especially those concerning teen parenthood among Whites, be because of unmeasured heterogeneity? Those who become teen parents may differ from other youth in important ways that are
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