Page 1 - Thailand Power Report Q3 2012 Published: July 2012

No. of Pages: 61

Price: US $ 1175

We expect natural gas production to lead electricity generation in Thailand and be the main factor in turning the country from a net importer of energy to a net exporter by 2021. Our view would also depend on the success of the country’s alternative energy plans although further clarity and legislative action is needed with regards to this. Events in Japan have made the Thai authorities hesitate over the country’s long-term nuclear reactor plans, but it is hard to see how the country can avoid this form of power diversification unless it builds still greater dependency on imported gas, coal or hydro. Fresh efforts can be expected by Thai utilities to build capacity in neighbouring countries such as Myanmar and Laos, providing a new source of electricity supply. Key trends and recent developments in the Thai electricity market include: During the period 2012-2021, Thailand’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 5%, reaching 239TWh. Driving this growth are annual 5.3% and 2.9% respective gains in gasfired and hydro generation, augmenting an 9.3% average rise in the use of non-hydro renewables. Energy officials in Bangkok have drawn up no fewer than nine 15-year plans to add between 27GW and 37GW to installed generating capacity by 2021. All of the plans call for the use of coal and nuclear energy, with coal set to generate up to 21GW, while nuclear power would account for about 4GW. Thailand can meet its future energy needs without any additional hydropower imports or further investment in coal or nuclear energy, a new study shows. International Rivers commissioned the study, which states that Thailand does not need to purchase electricity from the controversial Xayaburi dam on the Mekong River in Laos to meet its domestic energy demands. The authors analysed the government’s current Power Development Plan (PDP 2010) and found that it overestimated power demand over the next 20 years by 13.2GW. Following an increase in 2011 real GDP of 0.05%, we expect stronger growth. This is based on two factors: our belief that 2011’s devastating floods were a rare event, and the base effects from 2011. The population is expected to rise slightly from 68.5mn to 71.6mn during the period 2012-2021, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 145.8TWh in 2012 to 222.8TWh in 2021. Thailand’s power supply shortfall of around 1.1TWh is set to peak by 2015 at 4.01TWh and will decline slowly to reach a surplus of 1.96 by 2021. Underpinning this view is our positive view on natural gas usage in the world

Thailand Power Industry - Table of Contents BMI Industry View . 5 SWOT Analysis 6 Thailand Power SWOT . 6

Global Industry Overview . 7 Regional Industry Overview 14 Industry Forecast Scenario 19 Thailand Snapshot (Macro) 19 Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 19 Electricity Consumption 32 Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 34 Key Policies/Market Structure 36 Regulation and Competition . 36 Key Projects Database 38 Power Risk/Reward Ratings 42 Asia Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings 42 Power Risk/Reward Ratings 48 Thailand Power Rating . 48 Rewards 48 Risks 48 Competitive Landscape and Company Profiles 49 Electricity Generating Authority Of Thailand (EGAT) 50 Independent Power (Thailand). 51 Glow Energy 51 CLP/EGCO . 51 Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding Public Company Limited (RATCH) 52 Glossary of Terms . 54 Methodology and Sources . 55 Industry Forecasts 55 Power Industry - Data Methodology 56 Generation and Consumption Data . 56 Electricity Generation Capacity Data 57 Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 57 Sources 60 - Thailand Power Report Q3 2012  

We expect natural gas production to lead electricity generation in Thailand and be the main factor in turning the country from a net importe...