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RETAINING EXISTING HOUSEHOLDS Household growth can most easily be achieved by retaining a greater share of millennials as they age, especially since 20 to 34 year olds currently constitute the largest share (40%) of Greater Center City’s population. In 2000, there were approximately 50,000 people ages 20 to 34 in Greater Center City (Figure 11). Had they all stayed in place, we would expect to see 50,000 35 to 49 year olds in the 2014 ACS data. Instead, there were only 33,000 suggesting that a third, about 17,000, moved elsewhere. Center City’s population still increased, despite that exodus, because it was replenished by the very large cohort of millennials. But national demographic data indicate what all local colleges and

universities clearly understand: the national millennial surge, and Philadelphia’s chance to capture and retain this urban-oriented demographic, is time-limited. In our metro area, the next generation (currently under 15) is 11% smaller than the cohort of those 15 to 29 who currently or are soon to be entering the housing market (Figure 14). Many colleges and universities draw heavily from outside the region. But the recent Pew Charitable Trusts report on millennials highlights the challenge: 50% of those surveyed don’t expect to be here in the coming decade, with 38% assuming they will leave for a job opportunity and 29% leaving because of the perceived inadequacy of schools.8 Still, the passionate involvement of so many young parents in efforts to improve local public schools, bodes well for Philadelphia, if the current funding crisis can be resolved.

PHILADELPHIA’S ABILITY TO CAPTURE AND RETAIN URBAN-ORIENTED MILLENNIALS IS TIME-LIMITED. FIGURE 14: REGIONAL AGE DISTRIBUTION, 2014 NUMBER OF PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA RESIDENTS 500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000 0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

AGE

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Source: 2014 ACS 1 year

8: Millennials in Philadelphia: A Promising but Fragile Boom, The Pew Charitable Trusts, February 2014.

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CENTER CITY DISTRICT & CENTRAL PHILADELPHIA DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION WWW.CENTERCITYPHILA.ORG


Center City Reports: Sustaining Demand for Downtown Housing