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At the Center of Santa Barbara’s Cultural Conversation | www.VoiceSB.com
April 3, 2020
“What were the economic CASA Santa Barbara, Inc. • www.VoiceSB.com consequences of the 1918 influenza 924 Anacapa St #B1F, Santa Barbara, CA 93101 pandemic?” was the central question (805) 965-6448 • Established 1993 of the study. And given that it was a worldwide epidemic, “what are Independent Community Journalism the economic costs and benefits of Our mission is to provide non-pharmaceutical interventions accessible news for everyone (NPIs), such as social isolation and along with a broad and inclusive quarantining of the infected?” perspective on our local “Using geographic variation community in both our FREE in mortality during the 1918 Flu digital and print editions. If Pandemic in the U.S., we find that everyone who reads VOICE more exposed areas experience Magazine supports it, our future a sharp and persistent decline in will be made secure. economic activity,” said the study. “(Yet) We find that cities Send a contribution today to: Mark Whitehurst, PhD Kerry Methner, PhD that intervened earlier and more VOICE Magazine, 924 Anacapa, Publisher & Editor Editor & Publisher aggressively do not perform worse Suite B1-F, Santa Barbara CA, Publisher@VoiceSB.com Editor@VoiceSB.com and, if anything, grow faster after 93101 the pandemic is over,” said the study. All advertising in this publication is subject Columnists: “Our findings thus indicate that to the Federal Fair Housing Act of 1968, Robert Adams • Robert@EarthKnower.com NPIs not only lower mortality; they as amended, which makes it illegal to Harlan Green • editor@populareconomics.com advertise “any preference, limitation, also mitigate the adverse economic Alex Henteloff • papaalex@verizon.net or discrimination based on race, color, consequences of a pandemic.” religion, sex, handicap, familial status, Beverley Jackson • c/o editor@voicesb.com And there are increasing signs or national origin, or intention to make Richard Jarrette • c/o editor@voicesb.com any such that the most draconian measures Memberships: preference, Amy Beth Katz • amykatz@yahoo.com to contain the current COVID-19 limitation, or Kris Seraphine-Oster • krisoster@gmail.com pandemic by countries such as discrimination.” Sigrid Toye • Itssigrid@gmail.com This China, Singapore, and South Korea publication will Reporter: Robert N. Shutt • news@voicesb.com shortened the recovery period. not knowingly Design Editor: Michelle Tahan accept any Also, similar results are coming Translator: Jeanette Casillas advertising California Newspaper in from the EU. Germany and the which is in Publishers Association Bookkeeping: Maureen Flanigan Netherlands have reacted the quickest violation Advertising: Advertising@VoiceSB.com of this law. to the pandemic and are showing Circulation: Central Coast Circulation Our readers lower rates of infection. • (805) 636-6845 are hereby Data from Germany in another Hispanic-Serving informed that all dwellings advertised in this publication are available on an equal Publication recent MarketWatch report show opportunity basis. just 0.4 percent of people who tested The opinions and statements contained in advertising or elsewhere in this publication are those of the authors of such opinions and are not necessarily those of positive for the virus have died from the publishers. it, much less than the 9.5 percent in Italy and 4.3 percent in France. In the Netherlands, growth in transmissions of the virus have also slowed significantly. The Fed’s Spanish flu study found that while reacting ten days earlier to the arrival of the pandemic in a given Contact your local loan agent or mortgage broker for current rates: city increases manufacturing employment by around DRAPER & KRAMER MORTGAGE CORP. five percent in the post period, the researchers said, implementing restrictions for an additional 50 days Please call for current rates: Russell Story, 805-895-8831 increases manufacturing employment by 6.5 percent after PARAGON MORTGAGE GROUP the pandemic abates. Please call for current rates: 805-899-1390 The vertical line in the Fed’s graph measured HOMEBRIDGE FINANCIAL SERVICES mortality rate, while the horizontal line measured Please call for current rates: Erik Taiji, 805-895-8233, NMLS #322481 employment changes. And, the lower death rate MONTECITO BANK & TRUST correlated with higher employment. Please call for current rates: 805-963-7511 • Coastal Housing Partnership Member “We find that early and extensive NPIs have no SB MORTGAGE adverse effect on local economic outcomes. On the Harlan Green, Broker, 805-452-7696 *APR= 0 pts contrary, cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively experience a relative increase in real UNION BANK economic activity after the pandemic. Altogether, our Please call for current rates: Teri Gauthier, 805-565-4571 • Coastal Housing Partnership Member findings suggest that pandemics can have substantial Rates are supplied by participating institutions prior to publishing deadline and are deemed reliable. They do not constitute a commitment to lend and are not guaranteed. For more information and additional loan types and rates, consumers should contact economic costs, and NPIs can have economic merits, the lender of their choice. CASA Santa Barbara cannot guarantee the accuracy and availability of quoted rates. All quotes are based beyond lowering mortality.” on total points including loan. Rates are effective as of 4/2/2020. ** Annual percentage rate subject to change after loan closing. President Trump first intoned, “We cannot let the cure be worse than Computer Oriented RE Technology Santa Barbara the problem,” at the beginning of the For Information on all Real Estate Sales: pandemic. The experts are saying 805-962-2147 • JimWitmer@cox.net • Cortsb.com South County Sales just the opposite. Unless we allow a Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec worse cure, the problem of a return to normal economic activity from '11 80 94 146 119 135 140 147 156 160 128 126 170 an almost ground zero of business activity can be prolonged. '12 114 113 183 170 225 215 217 213 173 218 190 275 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560&mod=article_inline
The Cure Has To Be Worse Than the Problem
Courtesy of the Federal Reserve
P
By Harlan Green / Special to VOICE
RESIDENT TRUMP ON SUNDAY announced that he was extending his administration’s guidelines on social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic to April 30th. He seems to have taken the recommendation of his top scientific advisors Drs. Fauci and Brix to heart, backing away from his assertion that the virus will have diminished enough to be able to celebrate Easter Sunday on April 12th in churches. Dr. Fauci said Sunday on CNN’s Face the Nation that the novel coronavirus could kill from 100,000 to 200,000 people while infecting millions of others, though he said that the virus was difficult to model this early in the outbreak. But recent scientific research and mounting anecdotal evidence show the more severe the ‘cure’, including longer social isolation and business closures, the quicker the return to economic growth once it is lifted. Researchers from the Federal Reserve in a recent study of the 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic that killed more than 50 million people, cited recently by MarketWatch’s Steve Goldstein, found that the more draconian the ‘cure’ in tamping down the initial spread, the more lives were saved and there was a more robust economic recovery as well. The 1918 Flu Pandemic lasted from January 1918 to December 1920, and it spread worldwide. It is estimated that about 500 million people, or one-third of the world’s population, became infected with the virus. The number of deaths is estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide, with about 550,000 to 675,000 occurring in the United States. “Most U.S. cities applied a wide range of NPIs in fall 1918 during the second and most deadly wave of the 1918 Flu Pandemic,” said the study. “The measures applied include social distancing measures such as the closure of schools, theaters, and churches, the banning of mass gatherings, but also other measures such as mandated mask wearing, case isolation, making influenza a notifiable disease, and public disinfection/hygiene measures.
Santa Barbara Mortgage Interest Rates
Harlan Green © 2020 Follow Harlan Green on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HarlanGreen. Harlan Green has been the 16-year EditorPublisher of PopularEconomics.com, a weekly syndicated financial wire service. He writes a Popular Economics Weekly Blog. He is an economic forecaster and teacher of real estate finance with 30-years experience as a banker and mortgage broker. To reach Harlan call (805)452-7696 or email editor@populareconomics.com
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