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Carpenter Reports The Central Indiana Real Estate Market 3rd Quarter 2012

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Is The Momentum in Housing Slowing? October, 2012

The momentum in the central Indiana housing market continued through the third quarter of 2012 but at a slower pace. The good news is that the inventory levels, numbers of houses on the market, have continued to decline, down 12.7% year-over-year. That’s good news. Fewer houses on the market means stronger prices. We suspect the decline in bank-owned (foreclosed) properties hitting the market continues to drive this decline. Again, good news. The increased sales activity in housing continues from earlier quarters as well albeit a bit slower. Pended Sales were up 7% year-over-year for the third quarter. That is a bit slower than the 9.2% we saw in the second quarter and the 13.2% in the first quarter. We saw Closed Units, homes that have pended and closed, increase by 10.9% year-over-year in the third quarter. While that’s good, it does reflect a decline from the 13.9% increase in the second quarter and the 13.6% in the first quarter of 2012. Again, indicating a possible slowdown in the momentum of the housing recovery in central Indiana. The year-over-year Average Sales Price (ASP) is slightly down, and the current actual ASP slipped from $160,484 in the second quarter to $154,026 in the third quarter. It’s too early to tell, but this apparent pause in the momentum experienced earlier in the year may well be in reaction to the pending elections and the uncertainty of the year-end “fiscal cliff.” As I am writing this summary, I note that the September Consumer Confidence Index report showed a strong increase to over 70. This is the highest level year-to-date. That’s a positive indicator for housing. In addition, an early look at homes pended in central Indiana for the first ten days in October shows the strongest level of seasonally adjusted activity since April of 2010 when we saw the last of the Federal housing incentives. Both of these may well indicate the pause in the third quarter of 2012 was short-lived and the housing recovery is building momentum again in central Indiana. The next issue of Carpenter Reports is out in early January. By then, we’ll be able to quantify the impact of both the elections and the pending “fiscal cliff” on home buyers in central Indiana. Hindsight will provide us a clear view of what’s ahead. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Warm Regards,

David Caveness

Senior Vice President Carpenter Realtors® caveness@callcarpenter.com


Central Indiana Summary

3

rd

Qtr ‘11

6,418 Units Closed 6,250 Units Pending 13,643 Listing Inventory Units $158,288 Average Sale Price (closed Units) $83.30 Avg. Price per sq.ft.

3

rd

Qtr ‘12

8,536 6,686 11,914 $154,026 $80.64

Unit Change

% Change

+699 +436 -1,729 -$4,262

+10.9% +7.0% -12.7% -2.7%

2011-2012

2011-2012

-$2.66

-3.2%

Average Residential Sale Price - Closed Units County Boone Hamilton Hancock Hendricks Johnson Madison Marion Montgomery Morgan Putnam Shelby TOTALS

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3

rd

Qtr ‘11 $247,787 $253,653 $136,178 $160,501 $152,926 $81,514 $121,703 $89,959 $136,775 $122,519 $101,189

$158,288

3

rd

Qtr ‘12 $254,313 $244,147 $143,590 $155,365 $158,270 $76,427 $124,317 $101,889 $138,142 $126,748 $108,217

$154,026

DOLLAR Change

% Change

+$6,526 -$9,506 +$7,412 -$5,136 +$5,344 -$5,087 +$2,614 +$11,930 +$1,367 +$4,229 -$7,028

+2.6% -3.7% +5.4% -3.2% +3.5% -6.2% +2.1% +13.3% +1.0% +3.5% +7.0%

-$4,262

-2.7%

2011-2012

2011-2012


Pending Residential Sales - Units Unit Change

County

3rd Qtr ‘11

Boone Hamilton Hancock Hendricks Johnson Madison Marion Montgomery Morgan Putnam Shelby TOTALS

217 1,169 248 550 508 292 2,763 126 204 69 104

marion twps Center NE Center SE Decatur Franklin Lawrence Perry Pike Warren Washington Wayne TOTALS

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3rd Qtr ‘12 247 1,402 235 571 520 415 2,699 123 229 121 124

6,250

3

rd

Qtr ‘11

2011-2012

6,686

3

rd

Qtr ‘12

% Change

2011-2012

+30 +233 -13 +21 +12 +123 -64 -3 +25 +52 +20

+13.8% +19.9% -5.2% +3.8% +2.4% +42.1% -2.3% -2.4% +12.3% +75.4% +19.2%

+436

+7.0%

Unit Change

% Change

2011-2012

2011-2012

144 102 109 218 316 297 240 295 442 293

185 108 115 231 393 333 242 307 447 338

+41 +6 +6 +13 +77 +36 +2 +12 +5 +45

+28.5% +5.9% +5.5% +6.0% +24.4% +12.1% +0.8% +4.1% +1.1% +15.4%

2,763

2,699

-64

-2.3%


Listing Inventory Units County Boone Hamilton Hancock Hendricks Johnson Madison Marion Montgomery Morgan Putnam Shelby TOTALS

Marion TWPs Center NE Center SE Decatur Franklin Lawrence Perry Pike Warren Washington Wayne TOTALS

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Oct 1, 2011

Oct 1, 2012

Unit Change

% Change

577 2,429 568 1,121 1,047 807 5,650 280 569 297 298

500 2,005 497 1,064 891 760 4,849 270 538 276 264

-77 -424 -71 -57 -156 -47 -801 -10 -31 -21 -34

-13.3% -17.5% -12.5% -5.1% -14.9% -5.8% -14.2% -3.6% -5.4% -7.1% -11.4%

13,643

11,914

-1,729

-12.7%

Oct 1, 2012

Unit ChangE

% Change

Oct 1, 2011 530 299 234 458 785 630 491 689 830 704

465 265 176 446 707 503 431 620 668 568

-65 -34 -58 -12 -78 -127 -60 -69 -162 -136

-12.3% -11.4% -24.8% -2.6% -9.9% -20.2% -12.2% -10.0% -19.5% -19.3%

5,650

4,849

-801

-14.2%


Average Sales Price Per Sq. Ft. Average sale PRICE per $/sq.ft. 3rd Qtr ‘12 County 3rd Qtr ‘11 Boone Hamilton Hancock Hendricks Johnson Madison Marion Montgomery Morgan Putnam Shelby

yr. over yr.

$106.48 $103.74 $70.56 $79.18 $79.86 $48.78 $70.59 $53.17 $75.57 $71.27 $61.59

$105.61 $103.41 $70.66 $76.27 $80.02 $46.63 $72.36 $61.60 $78.45 $75.49 $62.05

-0.8% -0.3% +0.1% -3.7% +0.2% -4.4% +2.5% +15.9% +3.8% +5.9% +0.8%

$83.30

$80.64

-3.2%

Average sale PRICE per $/sq.ft. Marion TWPs 3rd Qtr ‘11 3rd Qtr ‘12

yr. over yr.

TOTALS

Center NE Center SE Decatur Franklin Lawrence Perry Pike Warren Washington Wayne TOTALS

$63.30 $37.63 $52.04 $64.16 $78.54 $60.94 $68.85 $45.88 $106.53 $47.40

$72.53 $39.12 $53.73 $70.85 $81.26 $63.11 $66.52 $49.71 $106.54 $48.66

+14.6% 3.9% +3.3% +10.4% +3.5% +3.6% -3.4% +8.4% +0.0% +2.7%

$70.59

$72.36

+2.5%

Note: These statistics are compiled by Carpenter Realtors® from data provided by the Metropolitan Indianapolis Board of Realtors® through the BLC. While deemed reliable, neither Carpenter Realtors® nor the Metropolitan Indianapolis Board of Realtors® guarantees the accuracy of the data or the analysis. “Homes Pended” means property was placed under contract to sell, but not necessarily yet closed. “Homes Pended”is used in the report to provide a more current measure of market conditions. Marion County data includes partial data for Center Township. Listing inventory data represents single family homes only. Founded in 1970, Carpenter Realtors® is one of Indiana’s largest residential real estate companies with 30 branch locations and nearly 600 sales associates serving 13 central Indiana counties.

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Carpenter Reports Q3 2012  

Carpenter provides statistics and outlook on the Central Indiana Real Estate Market.

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