CHINA’S MILITARY
and
THE U.S.-JAPAN ALLIANCE IN 2030
training and operations for Japanese airmen, and equally limits their exposure to advanced concepts and capabilities along with curtailing their professional breadth.
M ilitary B alance and C ompetition in J apan ’s A ir Domain In the air domain, acquisitions of more advanced combat aircraft and continued high levels of training and logistics support in both Japan and the United States will likely ensure allied air superiority in air-to-air combat situations near Japan, and the ability to disrupt Chinese airborne and ISR operations in the area. It is also possible that the United States and Japan will be on the verge of deploying next-generation bombers or unmanned combat drones by about 2030, thus increasing by then the allied capability to penetrate Chinese air defenses.75 At the same time, those air defenses will remain a potent threat against any aircraft operating within about 200 nautical miles of China’s coastline. Finally, allied maritime strike and joint air/naval operations could also emerge to reinforce allied air and naval superiority in the area. There are several mitigating factors, however. First, while there have been recent upgrades to the JASDF’s F-2 fighter—which is derived from the U.S. F-16 Fighting Falcon, and to its indigenous AESA radar-equipped air-to-air missile—nevertheless the JASDF air order of battle is effectively obsolete. The F-X replacements (presumably the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II) programmed for JASDF’s F-4J aircraft will come very slowly and in limited numbers. Currently, there is no replacement in sight for JASDF’s F-15Js, which are early block aircraft.76 Second, the time to procure even a small number of replacement aircraft is measured in decades, and given present trends, rebuilding the JASDF would be a very long-term process. A third mitigating factor is the continuing severe budget environment confronting the JASDF and its sister services. Procuring sufficient numbers of tactical aircraft at the prices imposed by Japan’s procurement system simply will not be possible under current budgetary realities. Air defense operations also will be inherently limited by low munitions inventories. The additional possibility that initial air combat engagements might quickly deplete whatever alliance fifth-generation aircraft are available has serious implications for Japan’s aerospace defense. Fourth, independently and in combination with the United States, the JASDF has considered the reality of its force structure conundrum and the implications of the rise of China’s aerospace power. Nevertheless, no effective Japanese or allied aerospace power strategy has emerged from the U.S. Air Force, the Pentagon, or Japan’s Ministry of Defense. The lack of Japanese national or JASDF operational aerospace strategies precludes effective planning, training, integration, and acquisition of next-generation tactical aircraft. This is a very serious deficiency given Japan’s lack of strategic depth, and obstructs alliance cooperation. In Japan’s strategic circumstances, any reasonable national or alliance posture should reflect a concerted layered defense, enabled and defined by integration across service and national lines. Nevertheless, JSDF jointness lags seriously, not least in the JASDF.
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