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Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai ​so anyways we'll be talking about Hamilton home prices and that sort of thing and that you've been reading these papers anytime soon anytime lately all the buzz and newspapers is that we're in the middle of a humongous bubble and the markets about to crash and all that sort of stuff the same stories been hearing for probably about 10 years now I'm going to move this a little bit closer here ever since I even got interested in real estate not even being a real estate agent every year you get the same story that the markets going to crash that we're reaching a peak the bubbles about to burst all that sort of stuff and every year at the end of the year like well we had a record year and everybody's cool I really doing some stuff debt levels are rising but canadians are doing a really good job of actually servicing the debt so it actually paying down their mortgages a lot faster than they ever did for taking advantage of rapid repayment programs and that sort of things available to the bank they're putting larger down payments down and that sort of thing first-time homebuyers are being hurt but they're not really being hurt necessarily by the markets are being hurt by some government program to promote jepang Mortgage rule that make it have made it more difficult for first-time homebuyers to get into the market without really having any effect on cooling the increasing prices as it was originally intended so if you're looking at buying a home in the GTA most people purchasing homes in a million and a half two million dollar range really aren't impacted by the changes to the mortgage rules that happened a year ago or so or and more and the ongoing changes that are happening those people have money so they are coming from a house they've got some equity in their home they're using that equity to purchase a new home so these changes of the mortgage rules really they're only hurting the first time home buyers who pretty much all of their solve their down payment is coming from their own personal savings which is difficult to accumulate or gifts from parents or something along those lines but most of these changes with mortgage rules really that's where it's having an impact it's really squeezing out a lot of first-time homebuyers in the really hot market if she doesn't remember that Toronto is not Canada right there are many places in Canada where the market is not hot if you look into Ottawa if you look in the East Coast if you look at a lot of places in Alberta Manitoba the market is not crazy there's the her balance markets and a lot of these changes that are happening with an eye to tame the real estate market in Toronto and Vancouver it's actually having a very negative impact on these smaller communities it is making it more difficult for first-time homebuyers to get into the market even in those communities which is not a good thing which is not a good thing this one-size-fits-all solution on a national level really doesn't have the impact and contended to have and jemmye freaking head law and negative impact if you're looking at the Hamilton market in particular it's essentially the same story as any kind of economics of supply and demand if i look at the market watch that we usually get so if i jump in on the realtor association of hamilton burlington this is the market why should I get every morning Toby how many price increases decreases if you look at the new listings which is a green bar right here there's about 147 new listings within the last 24 hours which is great that's a lot of listing 147 plus 8 that are back on the market so there's 155 essentially new properties available to purchase but how to look down here and you'll see that these three lines here active conditionally sold and no showing go out and sold pending is a much higher numbers we've got 155 new listings on the market 159 that are sold firm sold firm impending and another 51 so 210 altogether that essentially sold within the last 24 hours so we had 155 properties come on to the market in lot of 24 hours so we had 210 properties sold so again either so firms 159 of those which means either than with a cash offer place on the property and it's sold or they cleared condition so they had conditions for financing conditions for home inspection and that sort of thing and not only firmed up so we've gone through their home inspection they're happy with it they got their financing and they wage conditions and they've made it a firm deal so within the last 24 hours 155 new properties available in the Hamilton board and 210 sold that's the problem that's why where the market is where it is we're selling more than we have available it's supply and demand if you stretch it out a little bit further and you look over the last seven days the numbers are a lot higher so we get into the here the green bar 939 and 51 s about 990 and new homes on the market in the last seven days but well over a thousand sold sold pending and that sort of thing so we've got 990 roughly houses brand new on the market in the last seven days and that's the entire Hamilton area our board covers Niagara all the way up to about Oakville so within the last seven days 990 new properties available on the market or coming back on as the market after having being suspended or something along those lines and well over a thousand fold so firm or sold pending conditions and that sort of thing so again it's a supply and demand issue there was an article the other day some economist did a check out of the market I think he was in the golden mail and

they were discussing that the the real issue is is demand it's not supply well it's two sides of the same coin so I really don't understand what the issue is but or how how this economist is looking at the numbers even if we had a greater supply so presume for a second that in February 2017 we have fifty percent more houses come on to the market but if our demand has gone up by eighty percent it's still a supply vs demand issue it's still basic economics even if you take out the foreign buyers there's a big buzz going around about foreign buyers in our market driving up the prices and stuff let's assume for a second that the foreign buyers make up twenty-five percent of the higher market twentyfive percent that's outrageous I think the number right now people estimate is five could be as high as ten in some areas that sort of thing let's presume twenty-five percent of the buyers or foreign buyers if I get 20 offers on a property that means five of those people are foreign buyers so if we eliminate them let's tax them let's make it difficult for them to purchase properties we just get rid of them all together because they just think it's too difficult to come in and buy a property here in Hamilton because of the taxes or ontario that's still easy with 15 offers on this property 15 that's a lot of competition that's not really going to have a major impact on the price especially when you're looking at these things in Toronto we reading the papers and they're always focusing obviously on the most extreme case just to make it grab your attention when you look at the headlines that this property had 150 showings and add you know 70 offers and it sold for 300,000 over asking price this is happening it is happening in Toronto it's not every house in Toronto but it is happening in Toronto even if you were to eliminate the foreign buyers from that mix you're still getting an enormous number of buyers of compete over this part of the problem probably problem of the problem part of it what's causing this to happen is immigration if you have a look in here at Hamilton I can see and this was a little bit older number from 2014 produced by cmhc but we've had 3300 new people come to Hamilton and due to immigration not refugees immigration 3300 new people come from out of the country due to immigration another 3,000 people come from other provinces so they're moving here from BC from Newfoundland from Cape Breton from Quebec and they're coming and they're settling here at Hamilton there's about 3,500 people new people coming to Hamilton in 2014 and that numbers only gone up we've got 35 under new people coming into Hamilton from outside the province and from foreign countries not to mention the people who are coming here from Toronto Toronto get to vote 90,000 deliver goods a year and a lot of them actually settle this in trouble as my parents and a lot of people to even back in this these figure that it's just too expensive to live in Toronto this was this was what was happening back in the 60s so then they turned around and they came over and then moved to Hamilton is Hamilton was more affordable they would to Hamilton into London Guelph Niagara st. Catharines they moved out and so we're still seeing that migration is just being exacerbated by the fact that the supply is so low and it's not who you think if you look at this one who proceeds from the financial folks these are numbers from 2015 immigration numbers and if you look here the largest group of immigrants to canada in 2015 for filipinos people from the Philippines over 50,000 people almost fifty one thousand people from the Philippines followed by forty thousand people from India 20,000 or just over 19,000 from China and then it goes down from there Iran Pakistan Syria United States at 7,500 people 5800 people from France 5,400 people from UK colonies so Commonwealth countries and then it goes into South Korea in Egypt Jamaica Algeria Morocco Vietnam Afghanistan Colombia and even Russia 2,100 people from Russia so immigration is a big factor that's fueling a lot of this pricing we are seeing foreign buyers we're not seeing a ton of them and that is basically which driving up it's a supply and demand issue probably about 20 years ago the idea was that Toronto and the surrounding area had a little bit too much supply so we put restrictions on developers as to where they could develop where they could build new home and that put a big pinch and now it's had again like most of policies it has the opposite effect of a shortage of supplies or should the builders here are building quickly as they can they're actually poaching staff from each other and contractors from each other but once that supply if you open up the area on new developers will come in we'll build a supply it will take pressure off the system essentially we have places for people to live the competition is reduced that's just delete it and we'll get back to being into a more balanced market having said that Toronto is an international City whether we in Hamilton like to think of it this way or not says ribbit jaded we're panning out stronger just down the road you've seen Toronto million times but Toronto is our new york is our Manhattan Toronto is our Paris is our London it is an international City it has four major spate of sports franchises it's got internationally renowned museums and dining places to live school that the University of Toronto is world-renowned even down the road here in McMaster where one of the most cited children's hospitals in the world and research facilities are second to none so there's just a lot of reasons why people want to move to Toronto I've been too mad and then my opinion Toronto is no Manhattan we don't have the density we don't have the access to things that they do in Manhattan is that's Manhattan on a smaller scale but we also have a stable banking system we have universal health care we have basic education we have clean streets good roads all that sorta sucks which is really attractive to people coming from either other province or out of country if you're looking at the per

square meter price in Vancouver compared to Hong Kong my runs at remax China tell me that they're about the same but if you're buying in Hong Kong and you're being surrounded by smog and you're in you're in the middle of traffic jam that literally can last days not minutes or hours days and you had a choice to live in Hong Kong surrounded by Smaug where they have billboards with pictures of the Sun on that does that tell you where in the sky the fun is because you can't see it or you can live in Vancouver and even if you're in a traffic jam you're sitting by the ocean side actually plays relatively friendly you're moving to a nice clean neighborhood there's a lot less congestion schools are decent and all that sort of stuff where would you choose to live that's really what's happening in the markets here if you have any other questions please feel free to private message me here i'll post some of the images that i had on the paper is just below as soon as i'm done this broadcast you can have a look at them yourself finally at the geeky agent anywhere online so you can be on facebook youtube instagram I'm Twitter snapchat to look up the geeky agent I'll be there I'll be happy to any questions you might have thanks everybody for tuning in thanks Kelly for mentioning me I thanks for watching and everybody else is tuned in during the lunch hour try to be more of these during the lunch hour so you can all have time to tune in and check it out if you have any questions that you like answer in a future broadcast please let me know it be happy to talk or get in touch with me 289 237 98 96 I'm always available to chat by phone meet up for a coffee and answer any questions you might have as always I thank you all for joining me and I'll talk to you soon State University of New York College at Cortland.