2 0 1 0 NAT I O NA L D R U G CO N T R O L S T R AT E G Y
Figure 17. Worldwide Cocaine Seizures, 1996-2008 Source Zone Transit Zone to US Markets Transit Zone to Non-US Markets US Arrival Zone Internal US Federal Non-US Arrival Zone
256
276
285
280
283
2000
331
1999
300
445
492
483
2007
400
546
2006
500
1998
Cocaine Losses (metric tons)
600
464
522
358
200
2008
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
1997
0
1996
100
Source: ONDCP, Interagency Assessment of Cocaine Movement (October 2009).
Update: International Interdiction The 40 Percent Goal: The national interdiction goal, established in 2007, called for removal of 40 percent of the cocaine moving through the Transit Zone by 2014, starting with an interim target of 25 percent in 2008 and increasing incrementally by 2.5 percentage points per year to reach 40 percent in 2014. Thus, the interim target for 2010 is 30 percent. To align this goal with other ONDCP 5-year goals, the period of performance for achieving a 40-percent removal rate will move to 2015. The 2010 interim target remains 30 percent, and the annual incremental increase adjusts downward to 2 percentage points per year. The national goal was established in response to concern over longstanding trafficker success rates of between 75 and 80 percent, meaning that every year for the past two decades, as many as four out of every five shipments of cocaine from South America arrived at their destination. The interdiction target was therefore raised to a level that would have a demonstrable and lasting impact on drug availability in the United States. Evaluation Approach: The removal rate is determined by dividing seizures and removals (e.g., drugs verified to have been jettisoned or otherwise lost) by total documented movement. In other words, if 300 metric tons of cocaine are seized and disrupted in a given year and total documented movement equals 1,200 metric tons, the removal rate for that year would be 25 percent. Sixteen participating organizations evaluate drug movement event/case data on a recurring basis and decide which events meet the rigorous criteria for inclusion in the effectiveness assessment. Challenges to Success: Removal rates for the past several years have hovered near the historical norm, dropping from a high of 28 percent in 2006 to 23 percent in 2007, 20 percent in 2008, and then rising again to 25 percent in 2009, which was still 2.5 percentage points below the interim target of 27.5 percent for
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