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Croatia Autos Report 2012 Published: January 2012

No. of Pages: 36

Price:US$530

Croatia’s new vehicle sales market has witnessed something of a rebirth in 2011, after two consecutive years of heavy decline. Indeed, after plunging 53.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2009 to fewer than 45,000 CBUs sold, 2010 saw additional declines, with new car sales falling by a further 14.1% to just 38,547 units. However, the story for 2011 has been a lot more encouraging, with sales over the first 11 months of the year showing a 10% y-o-y rise to 38,985 units. German carmaker Volkswagen (VW) and its Czech subsidiary Skoda Auto remain the dominant players in the Croatian new car market, alongside Opel. As of November 2011, Skoda’s Octavia model was the best-seller in Croatia (1,791 models sold year-to-date), followed by the VW Polo (1,650) and the Opel Astra (1,639). French carmakers Renault and Peugeot are also key players in the domestic market. In terms of year-to-date sales, VW has sold 4,754 CBUs over the first 11 months of 2011 for a market share of 12.2%. In second place is Opel, on 3,789 CBUs (9.7%), followed by Renault (3,613 and 9.3%), Peugeot (3,162 and 8.1%) and Skoda (2,866 and 7.4%). If VW and Skoda’s market shares are added together, then VW and its subsidiary company account for nearly 20% of the Croatian new car sales market. However, demand for new cars remains highly constrained by an adverse economic backdrop, both domestically and across Europe. Our macroeconomic team is currently forecasting continued economic weakness for the country as it emerges from the recession of 2009-10, with just 0.5% GDP growth forecast for 2012. Inflation is also a growing concern within the country, with an annualised CPI rate standing at 2.7% for October 2011. Lastly, ongoing difficulties at the country’s banks mean that there remains the risk of a domestic credit crunch, which would make it even harder for Croatians to find financing for new car purchases. Consequently, we do not currently believe that Croatian new vehicle sales will be able to surpass their 2008 peak of 95,742 units before the end of our newly extended forecast period in 2016. Our current forecasts call for a 10.4% increase in vehicle sales over 2011, to 42,538 CBUs. Beyond the current year, we are currently anticipating 5% growth in car sales per annum over the 2012-16 period. Since Croatia is an import-driven autos market – with no significant production activity – we anticipate that trends in imports of new vehicles will largely mirror domestic sales over our forecast period. That is only likely to change in the event of a major carmaker taking a decision to establish a production/assembly facility in the country, which appears unlikely at present. This situation may change once the country accedes to the EU, which is widely expected to occur during 2013. That said, the country is enjoying some success with niche electric car production, with two companies, DOK-ING and Rimac Automobili, recently exhibiting electric concept cars at the Frankfurt Motor Show. More information on this topic can be found in the Competitive Landscape section of this report. Risks to our current sales forecasts remain weighted to the downside at the present time, with the EU struggling to contain its sovereign debt crisis and CEE banks still experiencing financial difficulties as a result of overspending during the boom years earlier in the past decade. Croatia Autos Market Table of Contents


Executive Summary .. 5 SWOT Analysis . 7 Croatia Autos Industry SWOT .. 7 Croatia Political SWOT Analysis .. 8 Croatia Economic SWOT Analysis ... 9 Croatia Business Environment SWOT Analysis .. 10 Regional Overview .. 11 Lopsided Commercial Vehicle Sales Recovery Will Suffer From European Slowdown 11 Business Environment Ratings . 14 Table: BMI Industry Risk-Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe .. 18 Industry Forecast Scenario 19 Table: Croatia Autos – Sales .. 19 Macroeconomic Forecast ... 21 Table: Croatia – Economic Activity 25 Competitive Landscape .. 26 Table: Top Ten Manufacturers By Sales (Jan-Nov 2011) 26 Alternative Fuels . 28 Company Monitor 29 Pirelli .. 29 Company Profiles 33 AutoZubak/PZ Auto . 33 Renault Hrvatska 34 BMI Methodology 35 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 35 Sources ... 36


Croatia autos report