California Asphalt Magazine - 2025 Forecast Issue

CHURNING INTO 2025: A FORECAST IN FLUX

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Publisher’s Letter

Looking ahead while recognizing the past

I’m pleased to introduce this insightful forecast issue of CalAPA’s “California Asphalt” magazine. This issue spotlights the respected viewpoint of our colleagues at the UCLA Anderson School of Business on the state of the nation’s economy, as well as here in California, with key observations on the construction sector. It complements the exclusive “Asphalt Market Forecast for 2025” that was sent to all CalAPA members in December of 2024.

Indeed, one of the most important functions of our association is to be scanning the horizon, analyzing trends, and keeping our membership informed so they can make the very best business decisions. It also involves influencing matters that will eventually impact your bottom line, such as specification development, risk avoidance, market enhancement and ensuring that there is adequate funding in the pipeline for future work.

As we look ahead, however, it is just as important to recognize and appreciate the hard work and achievements of those who got us here. In this issue you’ll also read about our Annual Dinner and Awards Program, where we recognized our association’s leadership, saluted some legends in our industry, and paid tribute to those who have gone before us. Our special keynote speaker, Assemblywoman Lori Wilson, chair of the Assembly Transportation Committee, inspired us with her commitment not to shy away from the tough decisions ahead and to not “kick the can down the road.”

In this issue there is also a special obituary marking the passing of Carl Monismith from UC Berkeley, a giant in advancing knowledge about asphalt pavements and in many ways the father of the long-life asphalt pavement design strategy in California that has now come into widespread use. Carl has mentored so many over the years that it is impossible to assess his legacy, except to say that we all have benefited from it.

Looking ahead to the coming year, we thank all our members for supporting the association that is fighting for your interests. You’ll soon be receiving our comprehensive Almanac & Directory, which includes valuable reference information we’re sure you’ll use all year long. We also look forward to seeing you at our many exciting events this year. Our popular “Summit at the Summit: Executive Leadership Forum,” will take place June 17-19 at Incline Village, NV. We are also honored to be the host state for the annual meeting of the State Asphalt Pavement Associations, Inc. (SAPA), which will be held in August in Monterey. The company that I work for, Ergon Asphalt & Emulsions, recognizes the hard work of these dedicated state asphalt association executives to grow our asphalt industry and thus is sponsoring one of the event speakers, Jim Anderson, CEO of the California Society of Association Executives.

If you’re not a member of CalAPA, I encourage you to join, and if you are a member, I thank you and encourage you to be engaged so that you receive the full value of your membership. Your contributions are critical to our industry’s success. As we all know, quality asphalt pavements rely on a strong foundation to perform at their very best. Our industry also requires a strong foundation, and you as a CalAPA members are that foundation that this association is built on. This allows CalAPA to work on the critical issues of the future with a fundamental understanding of the past. I thank you, and I hope you enjoy the read.

Sincerely,

Scott Metcalf Ergon Asphalt & Emulsions Inc. (& 2025 CalAPA Chairman)

Astec/Carlson

Publisher’s Letter

The UCLA Anderson Forecast for the nation Cloudy with a chance of inflation

The UCLA Anderson Forecast for California California after the election

CalAPA's ‘Better-Worse’ survey

Optimism returns in CalAPA's 15th annual 'Better-Worse' survey; workforce issues continue to be a concern for many

Asphalt luminaries honored at CalAPA Annual Dinner in Los Angeles

Assembly Transportation Committee Chair Lori Wilson, speaking at CalAPA event, warns that transportation is 'at a crossroads'

On the Cover: Cover illustration by Aldo Myftari, Construction Marketing Services, LLC.

THE CALIFORNIA ASPHALT PAVEMENT ASSOCIATION www.calapa.net

2025 CalAPA Board of Directors

Jeff Benedict (Past Chair) Valero Energy

Scott Bottomley (Treasurer) Sully-Miller / Blue Diamond Materials

Frank Costa (Vice Chair) Martin Marietta

Ron Criss Hat Creek Construction

Tim Denlay Knife River

Chris Gerber (Secretary) G3 Quality

Chris Handley Tullis

Robert Jarvis Century Paving

Kevin Jeffers Albina

Kody King

Mercer-Fraser

Pete Lambert McGuire & Hester

Jeremiah Lemons CRH

Scott Metcalf (Chairman) Ergon Asphalt & Emulsions

Phil Reader Reed Family Companies

Eric Richard Reed & Graham

Steve Ward Pavement Recycling Systems

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Copyright © 2025 – All Rights Reserved. No portion of this publication may be reused in any form without prior permission of the California Asphalt Pavement Association. California Asphalt is the official publication of the California Asphalt Pavement Association. This bimonthly magazine distributes to members of the California Asphalt Pavement Association; contractors; construction material producers; Federal, State and Local Government Officials; and others interested in asphalt pavements in California and gaining exclusive insight about the issues, trends and people that are shaping the future of the industry.

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Cloudy with a chance of inflation THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST FOR THE NATION

By Clement Bohr, Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast, Winter 2024

From labor strikes to the presidential election, the uncertainties that hovered over the fourth quarter of 2024 have been resolved. In turn, there is now great uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook for 2025 and 2026. The general nature of the incoming administration’s intended policies is clear and includes tariffs, deportations, tax cuts, and deregulation. However, the exact contours of these policies remain to be seen because of practical, legal, and political constraints as well as the nondescript and often-shifting preferences of the president.

In our outlook for the U.S. economy, we have attempted to minimize the amount of speculation and only implement versions of policies that have explicitly been discussed. These policies include 25 percent tariffs on all goods from Mexico and Canada and raising the tariffs on China by 10 percentage points, which will be announced at the beginning of the next administration and be in full effect by the end of 2025. They also include deporting up to a million undocumented immigrants annually, which is gradually phased in through 2025, taking full effect in 2026. Lastly, they will make the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent.

The details of our forecasted policies will most likely differ from what will occur, as we cannot predict the future. For instance, it is not unlikely that President Trump will place more moderate tariffs on Mexico and Canada and more extreme ones on China, which

he has previously suggested. Importantly, our assumed policies strike a balance between acknowledging the extremity of the stated agenda of the incoming Republican administration while also being realistic regarding its feasibility. While the policy details will end up differing, their impact will likely be similar in many dimensions.

The assumed policies are moderate in comparison to what else has been proposed by the new administration: 20 percent acrossthe-board tariffs along with a 60 percent tariff on China, deportation of more than 11 million immigrants, and the abolition of federal income taxes. The assumed policies are also feasible. For instance, there were 400 thousand immigrants deported annually at their peaks during the Bush and Obama administrations, and major deportation exercises have previously taken place in the 1930s and 50s. Tariffs on China can easily be ramped up under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which is already in use, and tariffs on Mexico and Canada could be implemented via the International Economic Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 if necessary. While there is great uncertainty surrounding the details of these policies, they all point in one direction: the impact they will have on the cost of living. Tariffs will undoubtedly raise the price level for many goods and services. Deportation policies will create labor shortages in agriculture, non-durable manufacturing, construction, and leisure and

hospitality services, which will lead to higher prices both because of product shortages and higher labor costs. Lastly, the tax cuts may further stimulate an economy that is already at risk of remaining overheated.

Why did long-term interest rates rise while short-term rates fell?

Before we turn to our projections for the impact of Trump’s policies, it is necessary to provide an update on the strength of the economy that he has inherited. It is reflected in the fact that despite the Federal Reserve having cut short-term interest rates by 75 basis points since midSeptember, longer-term rates, such as the 10-year Treasury note, have risen by a similar amount. This was the consequence of a sequence of events that took place over the past few months, all indicating that the economy was doing better than previously thought, leading to more upside risk to economic growth and inflation.

The first event was the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut itself, which eased the likelihood of a hard landing for the economy while also elevating the chances of no landing at all. On September 26th, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released their annual revision of their economic accounts, which showed that real GDP and GDP growth had been even higher over the last few years. In addition, gross domestic income – which should be equal to GDP but was previously coming in much lower – was revised upwards, removing any concern that our

robust GDP figures were a mirage for a weaker economy. To top it off, the employment report on October 4th showed that payroll employment had increased by 254 thousand (not far from twice what was expected), and the unemployment rate had fallen to 4.1 percent.

Over the month of October, the odds of Trump winning the election grew, adding further upside risk to growth, inflation, and deficits, thereby contributing to the rise in yields as well. Then on November 6th, the day following the election, yields jumped in response to his victory. Moreover, the market yield on inflation protected treasuries did not feature a similar jump, indicating an increase in future expected inflation due to his victory.

Where will interest rates go from here?

Given the strong economy and the inflationary but uncertain contours of future U.S. policy, the Federal Reserve has already signaled that the pace of rate cuts will be more gradual. As such, after cutting the federal funds rate by another 25 basis points in December, we do not expect them to continue cutting at the beginning of Trump’s presidency, in order for some of the policy uncertainty to resolve itself. Then, with inflation

modestly rising and remaining elevated through 2025 and 2026, the Fed will only cut interest rates by another 25 basis points to end up between 4 and 4.25 percent in 2026. As short-term interest rates remain higher for longer and as inflation makes a modest comeback, we expect long-term interest rates to go higher, with the 10-year Treasury note reaching 4.8 percent in the third quarter of 2025. It will gradually decline thereafter, reaching 4.2 percent by the end of 2026.

Inflation will be higher for longer

Tariffs will be passed through into prices, temporarily boosting inflation in 2025 into the low threes. To gauge how much the price level will rise from the tariff policy, we can do the following back-ofthe-envelope calculation. Mexico, Canada, and China each make up roughly 15 percent of our imports, and imports make up around 10 percent of our consumption basket. An appreciation of the dollar did little to offset the passthrough of tariffs into prices during Trump’s 2018 tariffs. Thus, ignoring any offsetting effects, the tariff policy mentioned above will raise consumer prices by up to 0.9 percent.

The effect from tariffs on inflation will not be evenly distributed across products. In

early 2025, core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) will be slightly above headline inflation. This is primarily because services inflation continues to be elevated since the COVID-19 pandemic, but it is also boosted by imports from Mexico, the majority of which are in durable goods (machinery and cars). The tariffs on imports from China will also hit core more than headline inflation, while the opposite is true for Canada, from whom we import large amounts of oil.

As we transition into 2026, we expect inflation to be in the high twos, with headline inflation going higher than core inflation. By that time, sufficient deportations will have taken place that labor shortages are beginning to bite in the sectors where a substantial portion of undocumented immigrants work, such as agriculture and construction. Product shortages from a lack of workers and higher labor costs in agriculture will therefore result in higher food prices, elevating headline inflation.

One of the main impacts of mass deportations will be a rise in wages. The deportations will exacerbate the already existing labor shortages, particularly in construction and the food industry. With the U.S. economy already being near full employment, and

few legal residents willing to work those jobs, wages will need to rise in those industries to entice as many workers as possible. As such, we expect wage inflation to hover around four percent in 2026, instead of continuing its decline towards a level consistent with a two percent price inflation target.

An uncertain outlook for unemployment

As tariffs raise both the cost of living and the cost of production, they will suppress the demand for labor and push up unemployment in 2025. This is partly offset by a lack of growth in the labor supply due to deportations, which puts downward pressure on the labor force. As the negative impact of tariffs wanes in 2026, we have forecasted that the unemployment rate will fall to 4.0 percent by the end of 2026.

The uncertainty regarding the future path of unemployment is more elevated than usual because the impact of mass deportations on unemployment is not well understood due to limited empirical research on the subject. As mentioned above, deportations may lower the unemployment rate by constraining the labor supply. However, there are multiple ways that deportations can lead to an increase in unemployment. First, deportations diminish consumption and therefore also the demand for labor. Second, undocumented immigrants may stop working for fear of workplace deportations,

which is one of the more practical and efficient methods of rounding up large numbers of undocumented immigrants.

Third, the labor supply is highly heterogeneous, with undocumented immigrants predominantly occupying jobs that few legal residents would care to do, such as manual agricultural labor, work in food manufacturing facilities, and construction. With the deported workers being more complementary to rather than substitutable with the rest of the domestic workforce, their removal may actually lead to higher unemployment among the rest of the remaining workforce. Such unemployment multipliers have previously occurred under smaller deportation policies in the United States. These counteracting forces are the reason why we have only forecasted minor changes in the unemployment rate. It is worth emphasizing that we would not be surprised if larger swings were to occur in either direction.

Conclusion

With real GDP growth above 2 %, the U.S. economy continues to outshine its global peers. The incoming tariff and deportation policies will put upward pressure on costs and downward pressure on consumption, leading to lower GDP growth, dipping below two percent (SAAR) in the second half of 2025. We expect GDP growth to partially recover by the end of 2026 as the economy adjusts to the tariffs and the changing

composition and size of the labor force.

Finally, we have not imposed any strong assumptions regarding fiscal policy beyond the renewal of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. At this time, the fiscal outlook is highly uncertain. While the tax cuts are costly and more than can be covered by an aggressive tariff policy, the president has signaled a determination to reduce the size of government through his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative as well as his new treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, whose stated agenda is to reduce the fiscal deficit to 3 percentage points. Beyond this, it remains to be seen on what the Republican’s slim congressional majority will be able to agree. CA

Editor’s Note: This report was edited slightly from the original to conform with this publication’s style and usage guidelines and to accommodate space constraints.

Clement Bohr is an economist for the UCLA Anderson Forecast. The UCLA Anderson Forecast is published quarterly and is a unit of the UCLA Anderson School of Management.

The information provided in this article is only a small excerpt of the UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation and California. Visit www.uclaforecast.com to review the UCLA Anderson Forecast in its entirety. For information regarding sponsorship of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, please call (310) 825-1623.

California after the election THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST FOR CALIFORNIA

By Jerry Nickelsburg Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast Winter 2024

Introduction

The election is over, and economic policy will be different than that contemplated in our previous California forecast. Moreover, there are many new unknowns, and therefore, uncertainty with respect to the current forecast is elevated. For purposes of this forecast, there are four areas we consider: tariff policy, immigration policy, regulatory policy, and tax policy. The assumptions embedded in the U.S. forecast are that tariffs on China are going to be imposed in January of next year, but that other tariffs (and exemptions to those tariffs) are in the uncertain part of the forecast and are not going to directly impact the forecast presented here. For example, the President announced 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico which would have a significant impact on California. But now, there are negotiations between President Trump and President Scheinbaum to avoid those tariffs.

Immigration policy will likely have two impacts on California. The first is a withdrawal of millions of undocumented workers from the U.S. labor force either through the deportation process or because they have voluntarily stopped working in high-risk-of-deportation jobs. The second is H1B visas to work in the tech industry. For the first, we assume this will be carried out as repeatedly promised since the beginning of the election campaign. Whether there will be a Bracero program as in the Eisenhower years after mass deportations depleted the agricultural workforce or not remains to be seen. At this point, there is no discussion on implementing such a program and we assume for the purposes of this forecast that

significant Bracero program(s) will not happen during the forecast period. Even if it were to happen, it likely would only benefit agriculture in the state, as construction, hospitality, health care, daycare, and other services sectors would have a heavier lift getting a similar, large-scale program in place. With respect to H1B visas, the emphasis the new administration is expected to place on growth in technology suggests that this will benefit California’s tech industry.

With respect to taxes and regulations, our assumption is that to the extent that they happen, they will have only a minor impact and will take time to be felt. In our U.S. forecast, the 2017 tax cut is assumed to take place as are some smaller tax cuts through the next two years. Each of the above assumptions about Trump Administration policies is based on our guesses and not based on any data other than the pronouncements during the

California Regional Job Gain (December 2023 to November 2024, SAAR)

Source: California Association of Realtors Chart

Existing Single Family Home Sales (000, SA, Jan. 2004 to August 2024)

campaign and recent appointments of key personnel for the new Administration. It is important to keep in mind that political exigencies can radically alter promised policy. This California report begins with a look at the current employment and unemployment situation including a discussion of three key sectors: technology, housing/ construction, and logistics. The report concludes with a discussion of the economic outlook for the years 2024 through 2026.

Employment Retrospective

California’s unemployment rate rose to 5.4% in October, 1.3 percentage points higher than the U.S. In previous reports, we have explored this difference and found that a 0.3 percentage point difference is typical as California on average is more entrepreneurial and younger than the average for the nation. About 0.4 percentage points can be traced to the decrease in employment in the entertainment industry. Finally, a small amount is due to the cutback in employment in big tech, the reduction in agriculture and food processing due to very wet winters affecting harvests, and a reduction in couriers post-COVID and postincreases in minimum wages for some chain restaurants. For the past three months hiring in California has been relatively flat absorbing numerically the increases in the labor force. This is the background upon which deportations of some of California’s workforce will happen.

There are normally two measures of employment considered when analyzing labor markets in California; the household survey metric which counts the number of people employed and the enterprise survey metric which counts the number of payroll jobs. The household survey reported that the number of people employed in October 2024 was 2.1% below the number employed at the pre-pandemic peak, the same differential as last

Source: edd.ca.gov

August. The decline in employment over and above the decline in the labor force led to an increase in the unemployment rate to 5.4% in October. The labor force decline can be attributed to retirements, out-of-state migration, and individuals choosing to spend their time in non-market activities such as child raising. Breaking down the decrease in the labor force by county one finds that the majority of counties with a declining labor force are rural counties in northern and inland California, counties that have been losing population for some time or that are heavily agricultural. However, their losses are small relative to the decline in the Bay Area labor force.

Over the same period, California’s non-farm payroll jobs increased, and they now exceed the pre-pandemic level by 417,600 jobs. The difference between the two metrics can be

partly explained by the difference in the definition of employment in the two surveys. The household survey is a measure based on the domicile of the worker. If a former San Francisco office worker is now remote in Phoenix, then they would not be counted in the labor force and employment numbers for California in the household survey. This would represent a decrease in the state’s aggregate labor force. However, if their job were still at an enterprise in San Francisco, they would remain in the enterprise survey as employed in San Francisco. They are working in San Francisco (virtually) and living in Phoenix (in true life). This, at least in part, explains the large decline in San Francisco’s labor force. In addition, part-time gig and 1099 workers are included in the household survey, but not in the payroll jobs survey.

Construction Payroll Jobs

Nevertheless, there seems to be a disconnect between the two surveys. Since the household survey is based on a small number of interviews with individuals and the enterprise payroll job survey is based upon a large number of required regulatory reports, the enterprise survey is likely the most reliable indicator of labor markets in the state. It is important to keep in mind that these two metrics, which measure different aspects of the state of labor markets, are not interchangeable.

From the enterprise survey, for the first 10 months of the year health care and social services, retail trade, and transportation and warehousing were three of the top six sectors generating jobs. Each of these is liable to be impacted by a reduction in the workforce due to immigration policy. The remaining three sectors in the top six are education, state, and local government, and administrative services. With declining school enrollment and budget crunches in government only administrative services might add significantly to employment over the coming two years. That means that durable goods manufacturing and tech will need to pick up the slack if California is to grow as fast or faster than the U.S. in 2025 and 2026. Our expectation is for tech and durable goods manufacturing to be the bright spots as increased labor costs drive firms to seek out labor-saving technology and as AI and related technologies develop. Information, a sector with significant tech and entertainment components, should turn around as the contraction in employment in entertainment seems to be over In addition, a recovery in production rates at Boeing and an increase in production rates at Airbus coupled with increased defense demands and a booming space industry should buoy durable goods manufacturing.

The pace of employment growth in California is of course, geographically variable. Over the

first 8 months of 2024, slower than U.S. job growth has been experienced by Silicon Valley, San Francisco, and the North Bay. This reflects the slow to negative growth in technologically sophisticated equipment including computers and peripherals. In addition, the San Joaquin Valley, hit by a second year of unusual winter weather, lost payroll and farm jobs this year. In spite of anemic overall job growth from August to October, other regions in California have seen employment growing at rates approximately that of the U.S. through the first 10 months of the year.

This employment picture leads to a relatively weak California forecast for 2025 and a slow trajectory toward the national unemployment rate thereafter.

Housing markets

The housing market in California may well be on the cusp of a trend toward normalization, however, potential construction cost increases and capacity constraints could slow the process. Lower mortgage rates and the passage of time should begin to free up the existing singlefamily home market. The latest data, October 2024, reflects a market that is still at depression levels. 30-year fixed mortgage rates, which fell from 7.63% to 6.08% in September, have now inched back up to 6.8%. Nevertheless, a continued high demand has kept home prices at elevated levels.

With existing home sales at depression levels, builders should be responding with new developments, but a very wet winter has resulted in very little growth in building permits. The Winter Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast Commercial Real Estate Survey reported that 32% of the panelists in Northern California and 55% in Southern California would, however, begin one or more new multi-family projects in 2025. The constraints are the labor necessary to build these new homes and the potential

for new tariffs to raise the cost of building materials. The number of payroll jobs in construction is now at levels similar to those experienced in 2006, the peak of the speculative housing bubble in the state. These job numbers do not include the sizable undocumented labor force that might be reduced through new immigration policy. Therefore, we are forecasting a slow start to new home construction in 2025 as well as a relatively weak 2026.

Logistics

In previous California reports we documented a slowdown in goods movements through the primary seaports and airports of the state. The downturn in imported goods movement at the seaports reversed as the factors leading to it faded into the past. Some of the previous sharp downturns were due to trans-Pac shipping being diverted to East Coast ports as a risk mitigation strategy on the part of shippers with the then still unsettled labor issues at West Coast ports, and some were due to a shift by households from goods purchases back to services. Currently, longer shipping times coupled with the drought in Panama slowing passage to the Gulf of Mexico have resulted in an increase in goods movement through the California ports. The violent attacks on Red Sea freighters passing by Yemen contributed in a small way to a stronger recovery in import volume through California’s seaports. Finally, while labor issues are now settled for West Coast Ports, they are far from settled at East Coast and Gulf Coast Ports. Traffic has begun to divert to the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The prospect of increased tariffs will accelerate shipments to the ports between now and January 20 and will slow the growth of imports thereafter, but increased consumption demand from the growing U.S. economy will prevent a contraction in goods flow through California’s seaports. The weak exports evident in the

data are a consequence of two factors; weather-related reductions in agricultural shipments and weak foreign economies.

California’s international airports have now returned to normal times in the sense that air cargo is approximately at pre-pandemic levels. However, there is no clear neutral or positive trend. The expectation is that increased TransPac flights, particularly between the U.S. and China, will increase belly cargo at LAX and SFO in the coming three years. Though a similar weak pattern is seen in domestic cargo through California’s regional airports, there are currently no significant factors leading to other than a continuation of shallow growth in domestic air cargo. Domestic goods movement by air remains below pre-pandemic levels in Northern California. In Southern California, it has now recovered and is above trend.

The Forecast

The sector-by-sector analysis above results in a forecast for the California economy to grow at about the same rate as the U.S. in 2025 and 2026. The unemployment rate for the 4th quarter of this year is expected to average 5.3%, and the average for 2025 and 2026 is expected to be 5.5% and 5.0% respectively. Our forecast for 2025 and 2026 is for total employment growth rates to be -0.7% and 1.6%. Non-farm payroll jobs are expected to grow at a 1.5% and 1.3% rate during the same two years. Real personal income is forecast to grow by 2.3% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026. In spite of the higher interest rates, the continued demand for a limited housing stock coupled with state policies inducing new homebuilding should result in the beginning of a recovery this year followed by slow but solid growth in new home production thereafter. Our expectation is for permitted new units

to grow to 143K by the end of 2026. Needless to say, this level of home building means that the prospect of the private sector building out of the housing affordability problem over the next three years is nil. CA

Editor’s Note: This report was edited slightly from the original to conform with this publication’s style and usage guidelines and to accommodate space constraints.

Jerry Nickelsburg is the director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast and an adjunct professor of economics. The UCLA Anderson Forecast is published quarterly and is a unit of the UCLA Anderson School of Management.

The information provided in this article is only a small excerpt of the UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Nation and California. Visit www.uclaforecast.com to review the UCLA Anderson Forecast in its entirety. For information regarding sponsorship of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, please call (310) 825-1623.

Assessing the economic impact of the L.A.-area wildfires

Editor’s Note: After the publication of the 2025 economic forecast that appears in this issue of California Asphalt magazine, the economists at the UCLA Anderson School of Business issued a special report on Feb. 10 estimating the economic impacts the Los Angelesarea wildfires, and aftermath, may have on the California and regional economy. In the report they acknowledge that “these estimates are based on various assumptions and may be subject to future revision.” It should be noted that the Feb. 10 report was issued before recent developments that will no doubt have further impacts on the economy, including flooding and mudslides in wildfire areas, and expected insurance rate hikes to bail out the state’s homeowners’ insurance of last resort, a semiprivate insurance program known as the FAIR Plan. Reportedly one in five homeowners in the fire-ravaged Pacific Palisades area are covered by the FAIR Plan. The wildfires are expected to be among the most costly in U.S. history. With regard to the overall UCLA forecast, It should also be noted that the initial Trump tariffs on goods originating from Canada and Mexico were opposed by construction materials associations, including the National Asphalt Pavement Association, in a Jan. 31 coalition letter to the administration focusing on the negative impact to those industries. The blanket tariffs were postponed on Feb. 3 when the administration struck last-minute deals with the leaders of Canada and Mexico.

The UCLA economists reported the following as of Feb. 10:

• Total property and capital losses could range between $95 billion and $164 billion,

with insured losses estimated at $75 billion.

• A 0.48% decline in county-level GDP for 2025, amounting to approximately $4.6 billion.

• A total wage loss of $297 million for local businesses and employees in the affected areas.

• Without substantial and effective wildfire mitigation efforts and investments, Californians will face increasingly higher insurance premiums and growing health risks from wildfirerelated pollution.

• L.A. housing markets, in particular for rental units, will become increasingly unaffordable.

All wildfire mitigation investments will be justified, considering the astronomical costs associated with wildfires.

In January 2025, Los Angeles experienced the most catastrophic wildfires in its history. Since January 7, a series of wildfires have ravaged L.A. County, consuming 55,082 acres due to strong Santa Ana winds

and severe dry conditions. The Palisades and Eaton Fires were the most destructive, burning 23,400 and 14,000 acres, respectively. To date, the fires have claimed at least 28 lives and destroyed over 16,240 structures. This report provides an initial assessment of the extensive losses and economic impact of these devastating wildfires.

Direct Property Loss

The wildfires directly destroyed 16,240 homes and commercial properties, along with numerous automobiles and personal belongings. Of these, 6,822 structures in Pacific Palisades and Malibu were lost to the Palisades Fire, and 9,418 in Altadena to the Eaton Fire. In the coming months, we will be able to determine the direct insured losses through the total insurance claims summarized by the California Department of Insurance (CDI). Until then, we use data from past insured losses from California's most catastrophic wildfires to provide preliminary estimates for economic losses to insured homeowners. CA

Photo by Jeff Bliss of a recent Southern California wildfire, used with permission.

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Optimism returns in CalAPA's 15th annual 'Better-Worse' survey; workforce issues continue to be a concern for many

By Russell W. Snyder

Optimism has returned in CalAPA's annual survey of Asphalt Insider newsletter readers, a sharp contrast to recent years of COVID and post-COVID pessimism.

The 15th annual CalAPA "Better or Worse" survey found respondents much more bullish about the year ahead than they were a year ago, although there was plenty of uncertainty expressed in written comments about work-force availability and the regulatory environment.

The brief, non-scientific poll of more than 2,600 "Asphalt Insider" newsletter subscribers, conducted at the close of 2024, found overall optimism up compared to a year ago, with 55% of respondents saying 2025 would be better than 2024. Thirteen percent said 2025 would be “worse” than 2024, and 28% said they thought the coming year would be “about the same” as 2024. About 1% of respondents answered they were unsure or had no opinion.

“2024 was a very busy year for us,” one consultant commented. “I expect 2025 to be the same.” Added an asphalt producer: “Significant work in our area for 2025.” That same sentiment was offered by another asphalt producer: “Strong backlog.” A paving contractor from Southern California described the market this way: “Better backlog and more work to bid.”

"Better" (by percentage of respondents)

The jump in optimism was the largest year-over-year increase in the survey’s history, and many of the survey respondents referenced the outcome of the presidential election in their answers. Last year, the number of respondents who said 2024 would be better than 2023 stood at 30%, which was down slightly from the 32% recorded the year prior. Those who said 2024 would be worse than 2023 came in at 32%, also down 2 percentage points from the year prior. In last year’s survey the biggest percentage of respondents, 35%, said they did not know if the coming year would be better or worse, which was up from 29% the year prior. It was

the first time since 2013 that more people chose “Don’t Know” over “Better.” As we reported at the time, the big “Don’t Know” number may have been influenced by ambiguous reports about the state of the economy heading into a presidential election year. As noted in this year’s CalAPA Asphalt Market Forecast for 2025, those fears about the economy did not materialize as inflation eased and the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates.

Still, the survey numbers this year fall short of the heady days in 2017 and 2018, when the passage of SB1 promised to funnel billions of dollars to deferred pavement improvement projects.

2017 the “Better” figure was 62% and 2018 was at 67%, an all-time high for the survey. The “worse” tally in 2017 was just 5%, the all-time low for the survey, and the 2018 figure was 5%. While additional funds have flowed to transportation, less has been used for pavement improvement projects than anticipated.

The all-time high for the “Worse” number was recorded in 2022 when 34% of respondents said they believed 2023 would be worse than 2022 as the state and the nation continued to recover from COVID-19 pandemic disruptions.

The levels of pessimism in recent years has not approached the dire numbers recorded in surveys taken during the depths of the last major economic downturn in the state, however. In 2011 the share of survey respondents who said the coming year was going to be better was just 20%, the lowest ever recorded in the survey. The same year the number of respondents who said 2012 would be worse stood at 22% — substantially more pessimistic than this year’s 13%.

Workforce issues, a persistent theme in the survey in recent years, plus concerns about the regulatory environment, were on the minds of many who responded to this year’s annual survey.

“Qualified help, in the office and in the field,” lamented one asphalt producer that also has a paving division. “Finding qualified employees,” noted another asphalt producer. A paving contractor described the challenge this way: “Retaining competent younger workers.”

The CalAPA Board of Directors highlighted this trend in its most recent strategic plan update, and the association has initiated numerous workforce recruitment and retention activities, including launching a workforce-centric charity, the California Asphalt

"Same" (percentage of respondents)

Research & Education Foundation.

The Women of Asphalt California Branch has also placed workforce recruitment and development at the center of its many activities.

As has been revealed in past surveys, finding qualified personnel is a challenge also faced by agencies, although there were not as many agency comments on this topic as in the past. One agency manager lamented, “We are losing track of the basics.”

Many comments about transportation funding tended to be dour. SB1, the $50 billion Road Repair & Accountability Act of 2017, has reached the seventh year of its 10-year implementation horizon, and a new $1 trillion federal infrastructure bill passed in late 2021 also promised to infuse more money to pavement repair. However, there are persistent reports that those dollars are not showing up in pavement repairs, the bread and butter of the asphalt pavement industry. A comprehensive CalAPA analysis of Caltrans data validated those anecdotal reports. Several survey respondents complained they have not seen road repairs at the level that was promised to taxpayers and long-

suffering commuters when SB1 passed.

“Don’t see any significant public works funding,” one industry respondent said. Another added, “HMA tonnages are down, and costs (labor and materials) continue to rise.” Still, a few saw some bright spots, including the passage of local tax measures that will generate road-repair funds.

For the ninth year in a row, the survey added an optional question, “What is the No. 1 challenge where you work?” That question elicited more than 70 written responses. As it has in recent years, work force issues continued to dominate the comments. Next were supply chain issues, the economy and inflation, and the regulatory environment.

As the workforce ages and enters retirement or moves to other fields, the survey suggests, the churn in personnel continues to place stress on industry and agencies alike. Government regulations were also top-of-mind for many who took the survey. One private industry respondent described the regulatory environment thusly: “California

employment laws." Another commented, “California regulations and associated costs to comply.”

The main CalAPA survey question is purposefully vague: "For your company or organization, how do you think 2025 will compare to 2024?" However, most of the voluntary comments offered up by survey respondents to justify their opinion centered around how much work is expected in the coming year. The answer varied by company, agency and region, reflecting the size and diversity of California's massive economy and the economic micro-climates that are spread across the vast state.

As in previous surveys, the weather largely depends upon where you are standing. Some respondents commented that work was brisk, while others were disappointed, particularly in some rural areas of California.

Given the forum, some respondents took the opportunity to share a pet peeve. “Too many layers of bureaucracy,” one agency representative said. Another agency person commented: “Specification, policy and procedural changes that are illogical and undeliverable.” Yet another agency person complained about “designers pushing paving projects out in August or later.” Predictably, lawyers also were the source of derision.

One paving contractor offered up a comment that could likely resonate with just about everyone: “Our No. 1 challenge is navigating the rapid pace of technological change while ensuring that we maintain a strong focus on cybersecurity and data privacy.”

It should be noted that the survey was conducted after the presidential election but before the new president was sworn into office on Jan. 20, ushering in a

wave of chaos in Washington with numerous executive orders, layoffs and other disruption of the status quo. CalAPA analysis and reporting since then has indicated all the disruption has been disquieting for asphalt industry representatives and, especially for agency personnel, which will no doubt be reflected in the next survey.

A total of 115 people took part in the voluntary on-line survey, which was conducted from Nov. 4 to Nov. 18. On Dec. 2, CalAPA published an exclusive comprehensive analysis, “2025 Asphalt Market Forecast for California.” The highly regarded publication, in its fourth year, is filled with data and insight available nowhere else. CalAPA members will receive two updates to the forecast in 2025, plus the opportunity to hear directly from experts at CalAPA’s second annual “Summit at the Summit –Executive Leadership Forum” to be held June 17-19, 2025 in Incline Village, NV. CA

Russell W. Snyder, CAE, is executive director of the California Asphalt Pavement Association (CalAPA).

REFERENCES:

Snyder, R. (2024) “Confidence down slightly in our 14th annual ‘Better-Worse’ survey; work force remains dominant concern for 2024.” California Asphalt, Journal of the California Asphalt Pavement Association, Vol. 28, Issue 1, PP 14.

Snyder, R. (2025) “Analysis: Disruption in Washington ripples across California (again).” California Asphalt Insider newsletter, Jan. 27, 2025.

Snyder, R. (2025) “Construction industry unites to express concern about Trump tariffs” California Asphalt Insider newsletter, Feb. 3, 2025.

Percentage of respondents since 2010 to the CalAPA survey who replied that the coming year will be “Worse” than the previous year.

Special Report: Asphalt luminaries honored at CalAPA Annual Dinner in Los Angeles ASSOCIATION NEWS

By Russell W. Snyder

History – those who have made it and those who will – was on grand display at the CalAPA Annual All-Member Meeting and Awards Dinner at the stately Jonathan Club in downtown Los Angeles.

The association honored longtime paving contractor Skip Brown with induction into the association’s “Hall of Fame,” and held a special posthumous induction ceremony for Gerry Graham of San Jose-based Reed & Graham. There was also recognition for those the industry has lost in the past year, including legendary World Oil leader and philanthropist Bob Roth, Bill Darnell with Valero, Gene Guido with Reed & Graham and U.C. Berkeley Professor Emeritus Carl Monismith, a previous CalAPA Hall of Fame inductee, credited with numerous innovations, including the long-life asphalt pavement design strategy now increasingly used by Caltrans.

Keynote speaker Lori Wilson, chair of the Assembly Transportation Committee, proclaimed that the state is at a “crossroads” in terms of funding for transportation, protecting our existing roadway infrastructure and also enhancing it to withstand climate changeenhanced weather events (see sidebar).

The sometimes somber tone of the Jan. 16 evening event was punctuated by moments of levity, including when Brown unexpectedly pulled out an empty paint can, placed it on the stage near the microphone, and booted it across the room. “This association,” he growled, “has nothing to do with kicking the can down the road.

We’re going to make it better.” The stunned audience roared its approval.

Wilson, who spoke after Brown, was clearly inspired by the gesture. She has also earned a reputation in her relatively short time in Sacramento for pragmatism, coalition-building and getting things done. She asked if she could have the can to display in her office in Sacramento as a reminder to all visitors of the timeless message. She also asked Brown to sign it, which he gladly did. Over the weekend a photo of the now famous can, dent and all, perched on a ledge in Wilson’s office, was circulating on social media with the hashtag: #NoMoreKickingTheCan . Yes, that really happened.

The CalAPA Annual Dinner, a fixture of the asphalt pavement industry since the 1960s, was held once again at the historic Jonathan Club in downtown Los Angeles. Founded in 1895, the Jonathan

Keynote Speaker Lori Wilson, chair of the Assembly Transportation Committee, and the symbolic “can” at the CalAPA Annual Dinner held at the Jonathan Club in Los Angeles. The can was a symbol for the Legislature not to postpone tough decisions.

Club has hosted countless titans of business and government within its ornate halls. Gavin Newsom spoke at CalAPA’s Annual Dinner in 2014 as he was preparing his run for governor, and former Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti delivered remote remarks to the association during the pandemic year of 2020. The event also featured former Assembly Transportation Committee Chair Jim Frazier, the Assembly floor manager for SB1, the $50 billion Road Repair & Accountability Act of 2017. Another memorable speaker was State Treasurer Fiona

CalAPA Executive Director

Russell W. Snyder served as emcee of the annual event.

New CalAPA “Hall of Fame” inductee Skip Brown (right) poses with Annual Dinner

Ma, who authored an asphalt recycling bill when she was in the Assembly. She is a declared candidate for Lt. Governor.

The installation of officers for 2025, and election board members to serve two-year terms, also took place during the evening event. During the swearing-in ceremony, each pledged as a group to put the interests of the association and the industry above individual and company interests. That theme of service and integrity was emphasized by Brown, longtime owner of Delta Construction and a former CalAPA board member.

“I’m the luckiest person in this room,” Brown said shortly before his induction into the Hall of Fame. “I was born in the United States of America. I had two parents who gave me guidelines, of structure, of respect, and the value of work, and the one word that answers all questions: ethics. If you have good ethics, there is no other question. If you don’t have good ethics, there is no other question.” Brown was one of several CalAPA members who inspired the association adopting a Code of Ethics in 2014,

which is prominently displayed on the association’s website, new board member orientation materials and other public-facing venues.

Brown saluted “all the wonderful people who are in here,” thanked them for the recognition, and added, “because they all have a common sense of what we want to do, because there’s never the right time to do something wrong. And

there’s never the wrong time to do something right. And that’s what this association stands for.”

The impromptu recognition for the legendary Monismith, who died Jan. 7 in Montana at age 98, was poignant. It was led by Bob Humer, former longtime senior regional engineer for the Asphalt Institute, Jim St. Martin, a longtime former asphalt association executive, and

Sully-Miller Contracting team members with Jeff Reed of Reed Family Companies (right). Sully-Miller team; John Rogers, Dave Manuel, Michael Ramos, Eddie Carillo, Alma Cortez, Scott Bottomley, Bill Boyd.

Nolan Lohman, Ingevity (left), Kenny Talley and Nancy Talley, Talley Oil, Jill and Kevin Jeffers, Albina Asphalt and Bob Seiffert, Ingevity.

CalAPA Life Members Len Nawrocki (left), Juan Forster, and Carlos Hernandez (seated) relished the chance to reconnect and celebrate decades of friendship in the industry during the CalAPA Annual Dinner.

Chris Gerber, president of G3 Quality, a CalAPA member materials testing firm.

Humer referred to Monismith as a “giant” and recalled how when he was an engineering student in Holland in the 1970s his professors were referencing Monismith’s work. Former asphalt association executive Jim St. Martin recalled how he had known Monismith for decades on a personal as well as professional basis.

Added St. Martin: “He was honest. He was true. He was a class act. He was a real gentleman.”

Gerber echoed the sentiment of Humer and St. Martin that Monismith was instrumental in providing the foundational research to validate the long-life asphalt pavement design strategy. Long-life asphalt pavement, also known as “Perpetual Pavement,” is designed to last 40 or more years with minimal maintenance.

“I did have the opportunity to work with Carl on the Long-life Asphalt Pavement project on the 710 freeway, and for me it was such a memorable experience,” Gerber said. “He reached out, he brought industry together, with academia and Caltrans, and really made the long-life pavement program

Skip Brown, Asphalt Consulting Services and CalAPA trainer was honored at the CalAPA Annual Dinner held on January 16 at the prestigious Jonathan Club in downtown Los Angeles. Skip is pictured here demonstrating that future leaders should not be "kicking the can down the road" while Russell Snyder of CalAPA looks on.

CalAPA Board Member Eric Richard (left) and the family of Gerry Graham, Reed & Graham, who was honored posthumously at the CalAPA Annual Dinner, accepted the award on his behalf on January 16 at the Jonathan Club in downtown Los Angeles.

Pictured to Eric's left: Melissa, Nolan and Dave Graham, and CalAPA Executive Director Russell Snyder.

happen.” The 710 was constructed in phases starting in 2001 and numerous CalAPA member firms participated, including All American Asphalt.

“He was an astonishing person,” Gerber said, “and someone who I will remember the rest of my life as a mentor.” Monismith’s Memorial Service will be held March 21 in El Cerrito. A separate story about his

life and career appears elsewhere in this issue of the magazine.

Another larger-than-life figure, Gerry Graham, was remembered by his family members, who accepted his “Hall of Fame” award in his memory.

“I want to thank the Board for honoring him with this,” Dave Graham said. “This was a surprise.

[ Continued on page

Chris Gerber, G3 Quality (podium), Jim St. Martin, CalAPA Hall of Fame Member (left), Russell Snyder, CalAPA Executive Director and Bob Humer, RetiredAsphalt Institute, delivered a tribute to former UC Berkeley Professor Carl Monismith who died earlier this month at 98.

[ Continued from page 26 ]

We are very grateful as a family, and we really appreciate it. We come from a long line of asphalt pavers and asphalt producers. We were born and raised in it. My grandfather was in this industry. I’m in this industry. My son is in the industry. We’re looking at five generations if we can keep it going.”

Of his father, Graham said, “My father literally grew up playing in the sand piles in the hot plant. He was pulling the weeds along the fence line. And then he was sweeping the floors, shoveling, and running the loader. He built the plant, and then he ran the plant, he ran the business, he ran multiple businesses. He was involved in the industry from the ground up. Literally, until he died, he was involved in this industry.”

During the installation of officers part of the event, association members elected the following members to two-year terms on the Board of Directors: Scott Metcalf, Ergon Asphalt & Emulsions; Kevin Jeffers, Albina; Jeff Benedict, Valero; Frank Costa, Martin

Marietta; Ron Criss, Hat Creek Construction; Tim Denlay, Knife River; Kody King, Mercer-Fraser; Jeremiah Lemons, CRH; Scott Bottomley, Sully-Miller/Blue Diamond; Eric Richard, Reed & Graham; Chris Handley, Tullis, Inc.; Pete Lambert, McGuire & Hester; Robert Jarvis, Century Paving; Steve Ward, Pavement Recycling Systems; and Chris Gerber, G3 Quality.

The association officers for 2025 were installed as Scott Metcalf, chairman; Frank Costa, vice chairman; Scott Bottomley, Treasurer; Chris Gerber, Secretary; and Jeff Benedict, Immediate Past Chair. Metcalf delivered brief remarks commending CalAPA members and leadership for supporting the advancement of the industry.

The event sponsors were (table sponsors): Albina Asphalt; Ergon Asphalt & Emulsions; Martin Marietta; Polyco; R.J. Noble Company; Reed & Graham; Sully Miller / Blue Diamond and Valero Energy Corp. Main event sponsor

Below: Russell Snyder, CalAPA executive director (left) with new Asphalt Institute regional engineer Jhonny Habbouche at the roof top after party.

was Kenco Engineering. Reception sponsors were G3 Quality, Mercer-Fraser Company and Pavement Recycling Systems. The lanyard sponsor was Tally Oil. The “rooftop after-party” sponsor was CRH-BoDean-Dutra Materials.

Additional photos from the event are on the association's various social media feeds, including the CalAPA Facebook page.

Next year’s Annual Awards Dinner and Installation of Officers is tentatively scheduled to take place on Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026 at the Jonathan Club. All CalAPA members and their spouses are invited to attend the elegant evening. The CalAPA Board of Directors invites member companies to nominate prominent asphalt industry leaders for recognition by contacting CalAPA and requesting a nomination form. CA

Russell W. Snyder, CAE, is executive director of the California Asphalt Pavement Association (CalAPA).

Above: Sean Harrigan, Reed Family Companies, (left), Pascal Mascarenhas, CRM, Tom Lavera, Martin Marietta, Phil Reader, Reed Family Companies, Ryan Merritt, Martin Marietta, Frank Costa, Martin Marietta, Tim Saenz, RMA Companies at the Jonathan Club in Los Angeles for the CalAPA Annual Dinner.

Assembly Transportation Committee Chair Lori Wilson, speaking at CalAPA event, warns that transportation is 'at a crossroads'

By Russell W. Snyder

Assemblywoman Lori Wilson, D-Suisun City, chair of the powerful Assembly Transportation Committee, warned a gathering of asphalt industry leaders in Los Angeles that transportation in California was “at a crossroads,” with tough and complex decisions looming on funding for roads.

“What I understand, really, is the honor it is to be in this space and in this room with all of you, to stand before leaders who ensure that our statewide roadway infrastructure remains safe, connected and well-funded,” she said at CalAPA's Annual Dinner Jan. 16 in Los Angeles. “Your work paves the way, literally and figuratively, for California’s communities to thrive. Our roadways are vital to every Californian's quality of life. Every Californian. Whether it is commuting to work, transporting goods, or responding to emergencies like the devastating wildfires currently impacting our state, your efforts enable safe and efficient travel when it matters the most.”

A former mayor and member of the Suisun City City Council, Wilson said her remarks were tempered by the fact that devastating wildfires were still burning in Southern California, and in prescient fashion she warned the recovery would be long and arduous.

“One of the things fires do is they remind us of the critical role roadways play, not just for our daily commutes, but as lifelines in emergencies,” she said. “Whether it is the first responders navigating evacuation routes, or residents seeking safety, our transportation systems must be resilient.” She said “resilient infrastructure … will remain central to my legislative

focus as chair of the Assembly Transportation Committee.”

After walking the audience through the interwoven policy aims of sustainability, accountability, equity and being responsible with tax dollars, Wilson paused to address “the elephant in the room” – the state’s dwindling fuel tax revenue stream and the need to find a replacement for the system – fuel taxes – that has funded road repairs for a century.

“As Californians embrace electric vehicles and other low-emission technologies, traditional funding streams for road maintenance are drying up,” Wilson warned. “The state’s climate goals, while necessary, have created a funding gap that we cannot ignore. Gas tax revenues are projected to decline

by up to $4 billion annually by 2035. Meanwhile, our infrastructure needs are growing. You all see it first-hand.”

“We must acknowledge the looming funding gap caused by declining gas tax revenues,” she said. CalAPA’s weekly newsletter, California Asphalt Insider, ranked that issue as No. 1 in its annual prediction of the top stories that will impact the asphalt industry in 2025 and beyond. Gas consumption in California peaked in 2005 and has fallen 15% through 2023, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists. Part of that has trend has been the emergence of highermileage and electric vehicles. EVs, including plug-in hybrids, now represent about a quarter of annual new car sales in California. A controversial mandate calls for banning the sale of new gasolinepowered cars and light trucks in the state starting with the 2035 model year. The drop in gasoline usage has sent shockwaves through the oil industry and energy policy in California.

Wilson lauded programs like the road-use pilot program to test other ways to pay for transportation as “steps in the right direction,” and noted that other states, such as Virginia, Utah and Hawaii, are further along on adopting the road-user charge model. She said transitioning from fuel taxes won’t be easy, but said “it is the collaboration between public and private sectors at all levels of government (that) will be essential to make these programs a reality.” Legislative hearings on the issue are planned to be held later this year. CalAPA-supported Transportation California, an advocacy group, is

Keynote speaker at the CalAPA Annual Dinner held on January 16 at the prestigious Jonathan Club in downtown Los Angeles. dinner was The Honorable Lori Wilson, Assemblywoman of District 11 and the Assembly Committee on Transportation Chairperson.

spearheading a public education effort to raise awareness of the need to take action now to avert a road-funding crisis.

Wilson said another major issue, the disconnect between housing and transportation, is also among her top priorities. “High housing costs have pushed many families further from their places of work, increasing their reliance on long commutes. Those most affected are often the least able to afford cleaner vehicles or endure the environmental and health impacts of long hours on congested roads. Strategic investments in transportation can help address this issue. And by improving connectivity between housing and employment centers, we can reduce commute times, lower emissions and improve the quality of life for countless Californians.” Again, wildfires, and subsequent mudslides, have damaged or

destroyed thousands of dwellings in the state, putting further pressure on housing availability and affordability, and sending insurance rates skyrocketing.

“We really are at a crossroads,” Wilson concluded. “Our state faces some of the nation’s most significant challenges in terms of roadway quality and congestion. Some of our aspirational policies have left whole communities behind, even some of the most vulnerable populations. The challenges we face are daunting, but the opportunities for innovation and progress are boundless.“

In keeping with the looking back and looking ahead theme of the event, Wilson wrapped up her remarks by saying. “We made a promise to all Californians. We must continue to upgrade and complete our roadway system. This is a pivotal moment for transportation in California. And together we can tackle the challenges ahead and

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ensure that our state remains a leader in innovation, resilience and sustainability. You play an important role. The work you do matters. It matters to the millions of Californians who rely on our roads daily. It matters to the first responders who save lives during wildfires. And it matters to future generations who will inherit this infrastructure. I appreciate your commitment, partnership, and unwavering dedication to building a better California. Now, let’s get to work.” CA

Russell W. Snyder, CAE, is executive director of the California Asphalt Pavement Association (CalAPA).

REFERENCES:

Snyder, R. (2022) “What’s next? CalAPA webinars on the future of powering asphalt plants and fleets attempt to answer the question.” California Asphalt, Journal of the California Asphalt Pavement Association, Vol. 25, Issue 4, P. 8.

Memorial service set for March 21 in El Cerrito for asphalt legend and longtime UC Berkeley engineering professor Carl Monismith

By Russell W. Snyder

Amemorial service will take place on March 21 in El Cerrito for Carl L. Monismith, a distinguished U.C Berkeley engineering professor and researcher who for decades was one of the most widely admired and influential minds in the world of asphalt pavements and mentored generations of engineers. Monismith passed away Jan. 7 in Montana at the age of 98.

His courtly manner and meticulous research earned Monismith legions of admirers across the nation, and worldwide, and he remained active well into his 90s. He authored hundreds of scholarly works and his research has been cited many hundreds of times. He is a member of the National Academy of Engineering Hall of Fame, and has received recognition from the National Asphalt Pavement Association (NAPA) in its Hall of Fame, the Asphalt Institute's "Roll of Honor" and is also a member of the CalAPA “Hall of Fame” as an “Honorary Member.”

His name also lives on with the American Society of Civil Engineers Carl L. Monismith Lecture on Pavement Engineering, which has been awarded every year since 2012. His scholarly works have won awards from the Association of Asphalt Paving Technologists and the Transportation Research Board, and many others. He was active in numerous professional societies and served as past chair of the Board of Directors of the International Society for Asphalt Pavement.

One of his most impactful contributions in California was to the understanding of Long-life (Perpetual) Asphalt Pavement designs. He authored or oversaw numerous studies on the subject, and helped inspire the construction of a longlife asphalt project on the Long Beach (710) Freeway in Los Angeles County. His follow-up evaluations of the project for the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) confirmed the design was well on its way to meeting its 40-year-plus design life.

Since the construction of the 710 Long-life Asphalt Pavement project, Caltrans has built several other Long-life Asphalt Pavement projects on Interstate 5 in the North State, in the Sacramento area, and on Interstate 80 between Sacramento and the San Francisco Bay Area. The projects have garnered numerous awards for excellence and innovation, and the I-5 project in Sacramento was recognized by the national Asphalt Pavement Alliance at a meeting of the California

Transportation Commission. Once considered experimental, the Long-life Asphalt Pavement strategy is now a permanent part of the Caltrans Highway Design Manual.

As word spread of Monismith’s passing, there was an outpouring of condolences from the many lives he touched and careers he shaped.

Rita Leahy, Ph.D., former CalAPA Technical Director who also worked for the Asphalt Institute, said, “Carl was a thoughtful and generous man; a patient and perceptive listener, wise mentor, dear friend and inspiration to so many.”

Gary Hicks, Ph.D., a longtime professor of engineering at Cal State Chico and a 2018 ASCE Monismith Lecture honoree, recalls how he first met Monismith in 1962 when Hicks transferred to U.C. Berkeley and said Monismith was “highly regarded” in the asphalt industry. He chuckled at the 2010 CalAPA photo of Monismith at his UCPRC office in Richmond, recalling, “His system of filing was to stack, not file, and he knew where things were. Both his desk on campus and at the Richmond field site looked like that.”

Longtime California asphalt association executive Jim St. Martin said, “Carl was a great man, an industry giant and a truly wonderful person, a real gentleman. He was an invaluable asset to the entire HMA industry and I was honored to be able to work with him.”

Audrey Copeland, President and CEO of NAPA, recalled, “I feel very fortunate to have known Dr. Monismith – not as well as others, but to have interacted with him was a treat. I can remember how he called me a couple of times for

information and how honored I felt that he was phoning me. I was always more than happy to help him. I also loved witnessing the friendship he had with Rita Leahy and others and how they visited after retirement. Such a wonderful example of how our industry brings people together for deep and meaningful relationships.”

Chris Gerber, president of G3 Quality, a materials testing lab, and also a CalAPA Board Member and officer, worked closely with Monismith on the 710 Long-life Asphalt Pavement Project. “He was one of the major innovators of the industry. He did invaluable work in the area of long-life asphalt pavements. His work represented the foundation of the long-life asphalt pavement design strategy in California in my book. He was always putting a helping hand out to industry for the benefit of the project. His approach was always, ‘let’s do things together.’”

Bob Humer, longtime Asphalt Institute Senior Regional Engineer based in California, who recently retired from the institute and was subsequently inducted into the CalAPA Hall of Fame, noted how Monismith influenced the course of his career when he was studying engineering in Holland, which eventually led him to the United States.

“Professor Monismith was an inspiration for me to choose this specialty of pavements in Civil Engineering,” Humer said. “It is an honor to have known him personally.”

Added Michael Anderson, Director of Research and Laboratory Services at the Asphalt Institute: "It is absolutely no exaggeration to say that Carl Monismith was an icon in the asphalt world. His teaching and research influenced generations of students and asphalt technologists alike. Carl’s dedication to the principles of research, engineering, and education led the Asphalt Institute to recognize him with the Roll of Honor award thirty-five years

ago. All of us at the Asphalt Institute join with so many other colleagues and friends in both mourning his passing and celebrating his extraordinary life."

Carl Leroy Monismith was born on Oct. 23, 1926 in Harrisburg, Penn., to Carl and Camille Monismith. As a child growing up during the Great Depression, he helped support the family from the age of 10, first selling newspapers, and later working in a fish market. He enlisted in the Army in 1944 upon graduation from high school. Too young for deployment, the Army sent him to college to study civil engineering. He studied at the University of Maryland and later at North Carolina State University. He was invited to the Army’s Officer Candidate School In Fort Belvoir, Virginia, and became a 2nd Lieutenant in the Army Corps of Engineers. He was stationed in the Philippines, and after being discharged from the Army in 1947 in San Francisco he worked for a time as a surveyor for PG&E.

He earned his Bachelor of Science degree in Civil Engineering at U.C. Berkeley in 1950, and after graduation became a licensed civil engineer. In 1954 he earned his Master’s Degree in Civil Engineering from Berkeley. He eventually became a professor of engineering at U.C. Berkeley, and for more than 40 years taught transportation engineering and asphalt pavement technology. He also served as the chairman of the Civil Engineering Department for four years. He was instrumental in working with Caltrans to bring two of the hulking Heavy Vehicle Simulators from South Africa to California, which are still in service testing pavements today. He also contributed important research for the FHWA Strategic Highway Research Program, and the National Cooperative Highway Research Program. After retiring from teaching, he continued advising graduate students and conducting research for another 20 years. During his academic career he supervised 37 doctoral students

Carl Monismith in his Richmond office in 2010. CalAPA photo by Russell W. Snyder.

who went on to work in academia, government and industry in 10 states and nine countries.

During his tenure, he was active in many professional organizations, receiving numerous awards and honors. Highlights include induction into the National Academy of Engineering, the University Citation, an honorary PhD from Carlton University, induction into the Academy of Distinguished Alumni of UC Berkeley Civil and Environmental Engineering, as well as having an award named after him by the American Society of Civil Engineers.

He married Dolores Gansberg in 1949. They welcomed two children, Stephen and Carla. Carl served as Boy Scout Troop Leader for Stephen's troop for many years, camping and backpacking frequently, including leading one extended summer trip to Philmont Boy Scout Ranch in New Mexico. Carl and Dolores had been married for 67 years when Dolores passed away in 2017. During their marriage, they traveled extensively, visiting all seven continents. He lived in the Bay Area for 72 years. He enjoyed gardening at his home in El Cerrito.

Monismith always was quick to give credit to others he worked with, including many that live on in asphalt lore, such as the legendary Caltrans Materials Engineer Francis Hveem. In an oral history interview of Monismith conducted by CalAPA in 2017, he in characteristically modest fashion described his approach to innovation this way: “These things started out because people were having problems, and you get together, and then you go home and you think about what are the things that should be done.” That, in turn, results in research, pilot projects, and then new standards and new specifications.

“I’ve enjoyed my entire career, because I’ve met so many good and nice people,” he told CalAPA. “I was going to be a structural engineer, and it helped me in terms

of what I ended up doing, and I was also interested in soil mechanics, and that also helped me. But I think the thing that I think is most important, at least externally, is the fact that I have had so many fine people I’ve met in my life, not just here in Berkeley, but around the world.”

At one point during the interview he widened the lens and spoke about the importance of asphalt pavements, which connect communities across town or across the nation.

“I would say that, when you think about our infrastructure, pavements are a very large part of the infrastructure. They are important in terms of this whole matter of transportation. They take a large proportion of funds from the amount of money that we have to spend, so therefore you have to have a good education in terms of the necessary information you have to deal with. For example, in pavement design, you have to have engineering mechanics, so you can understand that. You have to have the ability to measure good material properties that can be related to the mechanics required. You have to recognize the importance of construction, because if you don’t build the pavement properly (problems can occur). You have to have good ideas and good measures of how to do this properly. In terms of drainage, you have to think of hydraulics, you have to think a little bit about the chemistry of the materials, so you have some idea of what your capabilities are. You’ll find this is a very good field to be in because you’ll have to do a lot of good work and a lot of knowledge is going to help you do good work. The important thing that you are doing is you are providing something that is going to be a lasting and very important activity.”

Monismith also was known for his keen sense of humor and quick wit, delivered with a Santa-like

twinkle in his eye, and remained active and connected to the asphalt world in his later years. A longtime subscriber of this publication, he would periodically send in notes to the editor commenting on articles. Most recently he carried the title of Robert Horonjeff Professor Emeritus of Civil Engineering at the University of California, Berkeley.

In a 1999 interview with ACCESS magazine, a University of California publication, Monismith lauded the breakthrough research happening in the area of asphalt pavements and offered a somewhat tonguein-cheek “Requiem for Potholes.” “Once we attain the quality of road standards of which we’re capable,” he said, “there’ll surely be not even a small obituary notice in the national press, because we’re seldom conscious of pavements that are intact. But, just as surely, no one will mourn the passing of the pothole.”

Monismith is survived by his son, Stephen (Lani) of Palo Alto; and daughter, Carla (Terry) of Florence, Mont.; and three grandchildren, Ariel, Scott and Julie.

A Mass of Christian Burial will be held March 21, 2025, at 10:30 AM, at St. Jerome's Catholic Church, 308 Carmel Avenue in El Cerrito, CA, followed by burial at the Sacramento Valley National Cemetery in Dixon, CA. In lieu of flowers, donations may be made to the UC Berkeley Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering CA

Russell W. Snyder, CAE, is executive director of the California Asphalt Pavement Association (CalAPA).

REFERENCES:

Snyder, R. (2022) “Long live asphalt! National recognition for innovative Caltrans design strategy delivering asphalt pavement projects that last 40 years and longer.” California Asphalt, Journal of the California Asphalt Pavement Association. Vol. 25, Issue 5, P. 8)

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