Jonah lehrer how we decide

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The Poker Hand \ 225 laws of statistics, so that his wagers reflect the likelihood of win­ ning the hand. But the game isn't just about the cards. The act of betting is what makes poker so infinitely complicated. It's what turns Texas hold'em into a black art, a mixture of stagecraft and game the­ ory. Consider the act of raising the bet. Such a move can have a straightforward meaning: a player is demonstrating confidence in his hole cards. Or it can signal a bluff, as a player tries to steal the pot by intimidating all the other players into folding. How does one distinguish between these different intentions? That's where the skill comes in. Professional poker players are con­ stantly trying to read their opponents, searching for the minor tells of deceit. Does this bet fit into a behavioral pattern? Has the player been consistently "tight" or aggressive all night? Why is his left eye twitching? Is that a symptom of nervousness? (Those who are easy to read are known as ABC players.) Of course, the best poker players are also the best liars, able to keep their op­ ponents off balance with sincere bluffs and unpredictable bets. They know that the most important thing in poker is not what cards they actually have, but what cards people think they have. A lie told well is just as good as the truth.

of the tournament, Binger played patient poker, using his extraordinary math skills—a talent he honed in grad school—to methodically figure out which hands he should enter. Nine times out of ten he immediately folded, and he risked his money only when he had hole cards with decent statistical odds, such as a high pair or an ace-king combo. "The opening rounds of every tournament are always full of players who prob­ ably shouldn't be there," Binger says. "These are the rich guys who think they are much better than they actually are. At this stage of the game, the most important thing you can do is not IN T H E B E G I N N I N G


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