FEBRUARY 12, 2010
OUTDOORS
A blue oak serves as host to the tree fungus known as red-banded polypore (Fomitopsis pinicola) in Round Valley Regional Preserve.
THEPRESS.NET
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IS THIS THE BOTTOM?
Photo by Ger Erickson
Outside from page 6A the planet, lichens are sensitive to changes in their habitat, especially the intrusion of air pollution. This makes them valuable indicators of ecosystem continuity and helps scientists identify habitats that need protection. The first mosses appeared around 350 million years ago – before reptiles and flying insects – making them among the most ancient inhabitants of the planet. Like lichens, mosses need external moisture to move nutrients from place to place – thus their penchant for damp habitats protected from direct sunlight. They’re the most luxuriantly textured of the forest’s miniature marvels, adorning rocks and trees like furry archipelagos strewn across the ocean. Mosses form a vital line of the ecosystem’s defense. Like soldiers kept in reserve at the outset of a battle, they reinforce the lichens’ shock-troop foothold on rocks,
eventually creating a layer of topsoil in which more sophisticated flora can take root. On hillsides subject to landslides, mosses provide a mat that keeps loose soil from slip-slidin’ away. Over the centuries, we humans have gotten pretty creative with mosses. We’ve mined them for use as a soil additive, fuel, home decoration and flavoring (think Scotch whiskey) – even as first-aid dressing for battlefield wounds (mosses contain a mild antibacterial agent and are highly absorbent). As our grey winter gives way to the chromatic dazzle of spring, as our attention turns to bright blossoms and sweeping vistas, let’s keep an eye peeled for the miniature marvels beneath our feet, the blue-collar crew whose down-and-dirty work makes it possible for the pageant of spring to maintain its blockbuster status. To comment, visit www.thepress.net.
So I’ve been telling you for two years now that I will tell you EXACTLY when the bottom of this market hits. Of course, I am kidding. No one knows until AFTER when you look back and see a bottom. Some people are calling the Summer of 2009 as “The Bottom.” And they have some evidence to support that call. The “good” properties are getting multiple offers and selling for at or above list price. Inventory (number of homes for sale) is declining. Pending/Closed transactions are up. Sold prices flattened and have even picked up. So, this is the “bottom” we’ve been waiting for, right? Prices are poised to skyrocket up from here, right? While I hope with every fiber of my being that that is the case, there are some factors that give me pause, what they call “headwinds.” First, you have the homebuyer tax credit that expires within the next few months. We think that has stimulated a lot of buyers to buy now, but will the demand drop off after it’s gone? FHA has tightened up some of their underwriting and raised some fees, making it a little harder to get a loan. Also, the Federal Reserve has
announced they will soon stop throwing money into the mortgage market. They were doing this to make sure rates stay low, so mortgage rates MAY rise in the future. And then on top of all that, we still have the Shadow Inventory that lurks out there. That is all the homes out there that really SHOULD be on the market right now, but aren’t for a variety of reasons. Between the lenders and the government, they are doing whatever they can to avoid dumping a bunch of bank-owned homes on the market all at once. But that doesn’t make the problem go away. So will the above list cause us to have another double-dip? Or will we hit a bottom, but then have prices limp along for years in a narrow band? Or will buyers and investors shake off all of the above since homes are now so affordable, and continue to drive prices up? Any of these three scenarios are possible. Sorry, I won’t be making a prediction. Too many variables. If you have questions on this or any other real estate topic, call me at (925) 240-MOVE (6683). To search the MLS for free and view virtual tours of homes for sale, go to: www.SharpHomesOnline.com. Sharp Realty – Advertisement
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