Evacuation Trepidation // Ill-conceived human industry disasters scenarios are caused by human activity. Examples include climate change caused by greenhouse gas and severe pollution. Natural planetary processes are not influenced by human activity and describe common traits of all earthlike planets including massive volcanic activity or a naturally occurring bacterial evolution creating an imbalance in our atmosphere. Extra-planetary interventions are catastrophic disasters with a direct cause outside of our local earth/moon system. A collision with an asteroid or an unusually intense solar flare capable of causing a global technological meltdown are examples of extra-planetary disasters. In addition to the catastrophic disasters caused by ill-conceived human industry, there are also non-catastrophic events that could significantly reduced quality of life resulting in at least partial evacuation. Two of these scenarios include overpopulation and a severe depletion of easily extracted raw materials on earth, the former of which is a symptom of the later.
At the earthâ€™s current population growth rate, seven billion people will live on earth before 2015. It is unlikely that our current population increase will continue at this rate, though even the best projections of the earths carrying capacity vary by 1000%. Of the studies conducted in the last fifty years, two-thirds of the projected carrying capacity maximums averaged near ten billion people. The most important factor in nearly every estimate is our ability to produce food. Technological advancements tend to distort these predictions in unpredictable ways. Even with increased utilization efficiency of raw materials, there will be a tipping point when it becomes more economically and environmentally viable to mine resources on other planets, moons or asteroids. Under the worst case scenario, droughts of specific raw materials or energies will force us to look beyond the surface of our planet, causing many to suffer from hunger and malnutrition as advanced extra-earth mining industries struggle to close the gap of supply and demand.
Design documentation for a commercial/evacuation spaceport in Ishinomaki, Japan.