Climate Perspectives Spring 2024

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“it is imperative we overhaul our current economic model” Johan Pretorius
SPRING 2024 for changemakers
CLIMATE
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Image: Johan Pretorius, Founder of Toco currency and Carbon Reserve.
PERSPECTIVES

The Common. From tragedy to triumph. Commonomics: a monetary framework to address externalities that threaten global prosperity.

Johan Pretorius, Founder of Toco currency and Carbon Reserve.

Dominic Brennan, Senior Technical Adviser, Industrial Energy Transformation Fund, Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. 10

Executive Director, Green Alliance.

Got an article in mind? Publisher Shawn Coles Interviewer Andy Walker All enquiries shawn@binarycarbon.co.uk

Contents
COVER
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STORY
In climate conversation with… Shaun Spiers De-risking Early Movers

Energy Storage: Horses for courses.

Guest student writer

Ramla Khan, PhD Student, The Open University.

Investigating the effects of temperature extremes on urban trees

The UK’s only not-for-profit climate magazine

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2024 regular columns
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Contents
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By Prof Seamus Garvey, Neville Rieger Professor of Dynamics, University of Nottingham.
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The Common. From tragedy to triumph. Commonomics: a monetary framework to address externalities that threaten global prosperity.

Climate change represents a market failure within our economic model, arising from the negative externality of carbon emissions not being adequately accounted for. This is a classic Tragedy of the Commons dilemma, where shared resources are rapidly depleted due to individual actors prioritising their own benefits over collective well-being. In the case of climate change, economic agents enjoy the benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while bearing none of the societal or environmental costs, thus incentivising their overproduction.

In market-based economies, governments intervene to correct such failures. Various solutions have been employed, including direct taxes

to account for the associated costs (e.g. taxing tobacco for healthcare expenses) and privatisation to incentivise sustainable resource management (e.g. fishing quota systems). Additionally, cap-and-trade schemes have yielded positive outcomes, as seen in the US Acid Rain program. However, these traditional solutions like carbon taxes or cap-and-trade systems have failed to address climate change due to its global and complex nature.

International cooperation and coordination are essential for their success but too challenging to achieve given the differing interests and capabilities among nations. Our institutions are simply not equipped to deal with this new type of global common resource pool dilemma.

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Instead of “benevolent despot” external to the economy, they act as self-interested agents themselves, effectively exacerbating the tragedy.

To better address these global externalities it is imperative we overhaul our current economic model. Our existing framework prioritises private goals over environmental concerns, resulting in the degradation of our planet's ecosystems. We need a better model where environmental costs are intrinsic to economic activities, and achieving economic prosperity is intricately linked with preserving our planetary boundaries. This necessitates reimagining our monetary system.

An updated monetary framework, where carbon mitigation outcomes (such as allowances, credits, offsets or removals) serve in part as the foundation for regulating the global money supply, offers a powerful mechanism to balance economic needs with environmental sustainability. A currency backed by carbon mitigation outcomes inherently holds value tied to environmental stewardship –intrinsic value is directly derived from real-world environmental impact. This linkage between environmental preservation and

economic growth ensures that as the economy expands, the need for the money supply increases, driving demand for more carbon mitigation.

Instead of mining gold or silver to support the money supply, we "mine" carbon. Carbon mitigation outcomes, such as carbon credits or offsets, share similar properties with gold, historically used as the basis for money. Carbon is scarce, expensive, and challenging to produce, making its supply reasonably inelastic. Moreover, carbon is increasingly gaining cultural value, symbolizing sustainability credentials much like gold once represented wealth and status. This positions carbon well as a new standard for measuring and signaling sustainability, a robust store of value and a suitable foundation of our monetary system.

This approach not only aligns economic incentives with environmental goals but also drives positive outcomes for both the planet and the economy. By integrating environmental sustainability into the financial system, we establish a profound connection between economic activities and enhanced environmental stewardship. We harness the substantial everyday money needs of people and business to transmit fresh demand

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to carbon markets. Businesses and individuals are incentivised to invest in sustainable practices, as carbon becomes a source of new revenue and a measure of sustainability.

Furthermore, nature-based carbon sinks gain value within this monetary framework, serving as assets that yield income and offering an alternative means of exploitation that is planet positive. In this framework the market should naturally seek to reduce its carbon footprint simply to maintain a stable money supply.

Central banks can play a pivotal role in this transition by incorporating carbon mitigation targets into their mandates. In addition to their existing dual mandates of price stability and maximising employment, central banks could adopt a third leg focused on carbon mitigation targets aligned with international climate goals. Policy instruments such as establishing a carbon reserve system or setting minimum reserve requirements with commercial banks will encourage significant investments in mitigation and channel capital towards environmentally sustainable activities. By buying and holding carbon credits and allowances as part of the central banks’ balance sheets

they can regulate money supply to balance economic and environmental needs.

This presents a unique and innovative approach to optimally manage the global common we depend on. By harnessing the power of monetary policy, we can drive a transition towards a more sustainable economy turning tragedy into triumph.

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De-risking Early Movers

The UK often lays claim to ‘Early Mover’ status on the global stage, and not without good reason. The world’s first national grid opened in the UK in 1935. Later, in 1956, Calder Hall was the world’s first nuclear reactor built to produce domestic electricity. More recently, the UK was the first to set legally binding carbon budgets, with over 40% of its power being generated from renewable sources in 2022.

But is simply creating early movers sufficient? Without the collective weight of the UK following the example of early movers, any momentum gained can be quickly lost.

Unlocking early movers is a common challenge the world over. The UK

faces the perennial problem of being left in the lurch as companies move abroad (typically to the US) to grow their valuations. Dreaming of more than being an incubator, there is sentiment among industry to capitalise on the skills and knowledge embedded within UK early movers.

Chris Skidmore in the 2023 Spring edition discusses the two action paths that the UK can take: leading or following. Leading gains first mover advantage, inward investment, new supply chains and pipelines, and lower costs of wider deployment. Following, meanwhile, trades financial risk for the risks of offshored jobs and lost infrastructure investments. Yet, leading often falls at the first hurdle: financing.

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Andy Cox, Head of Energy Transition at Howden Group, echoes this hurdle. In the 2023 Autumn edition, Andy discusses why financing steep costs of capital remains a barrier to unlocking early mover technology. The solution? By instead shifting the risk to more stable counterparties, obstructive volatile market trends can be dampened.

The UK Government often can act as this stable counterparty. By financially supporting energy intensive industries (EIIs) on their path to Net Zero, volatile market trends can be moderated, enabling the rollout of necessarily disruptive new technologies. The Industrial Energy Transformation Fund (IETF), one such market de-risking vehicle

now nearing its final phase, has assisted EIIs across the spectrum in unlocking solutions to their Net Zero challenges.

More than simply being the training wheels of industry, the stability of government backing can establish a pipeline of Net Zero-enabled industries and supportive technologies.

Unfortunately, stability is not absolute. Ever the incubator, the UK faces conceding its early mover momentum to larger players. The sheer size and comprehensiveness of the Inflation Reduction Act in the US grants stability where the UK Government may perhaps struggle.

Government funding vehicles like the IETF are essential to enable early movers in EII to adopt net zero technologies

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The c.$6B offered by the Advanced Industrial Facilities Deployment Program (a distant American cousin to the IETF) suggests just this point.

It is not simply the available funding that develops business, but also the stability of the system into which they will develop. Government funding exists to no longer be needed, and so what comes after an early mover?

The UK must do what it may culturally struggle with: advertise its wins. Capitalising on the momentum of early movers is essential to bring wider industry up to speed with its Net Zero commitments. Within and across industries, companies must platform their learnings and share their teething problems.

To really benefit from this momentum, the UK must facilitate this platforming across the whole system of industries.

A systems approach is necessarily comprehensive, and only by doing so may we uncover oversights. Enabling carbon capture will reduce process emissions, but what of the environmental impact of its solvent wastes? Up-rating local grid connections on the path to electrification will abate site

emissions, but what of electricity price uncertainties driven by, e.g., locational marginal pricing?

Externalising risks simply kicks the can down the road.

Stability need not be limited by the UK purse. A comprehensive, certain pathway provides confidence to adopt solutions demonstrated by our early movers. There is fierce appetite among EIIs to electrify despite the current large costs of electricity, relying on good faith that electricity costs will fall in line with gas.

Government funding is essential to leverage the UK’s in-house knowledge. Equally essential is cultivating an environment wherein these solutions can take root.

Going forward: de-risking the market requires a stable, unified system. Platforming our early movers will pay dividends only when these early movers can be adopted across the breadth of industry. Reaching this point needs certainty as much as it needs funding, and so only by broadening and deepening its commitments may the UK retain its Early Mover trophy.

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A climate perspective

England (μ7.5c) and Wales (μ6.9c) had the warmest February on record. Very little frost has made flowers bloom early. Experts say fruit crop yields will be negatively affected as they need a cold winter to rest.

Credit: xiaoliangge / stock.adobe.com

In climate conversation with…

Shaun Spiers

Shaun Spiers is the chief executive of the influential think tank Green Alliance, which works with leaders in business, NGOs and politics to accelerate political action and create transformative policy for a greener UK. He spoke to Andy Walker for Climate Perspectives.

Shaun Spiers is an optimist when it comes to sustainability. Optimism is one of the key values of the organisation he leads, so it’s kind of baked into everything he does. “I think we are making progress on the environment, but nobody is making enough progress and this is the problem,” he says. “I can look at some of the changes that have taken place

in the last few years and say that my organisation has played a big role in them, which is what gets you out of bed in the morning,” says Spiers. Those changes include things like the zero-emissions vehicle mandate, which Spiers says will be hugely important in taking carbon out of the system, and also the Environment Act, with world-leading targets to reverse the decline of biodiversity.

I ask Spiers about the challenge of coalition building amongst environmental organisations and he says it’s one of the strengths of the sector. “We all have different aims and supporters, but in the environment sector there is better

Andy Walker, Interviewer, Climate Perspectives
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Spiers
Shaun

cooperation than in other sectors. There are good relationships between the leaders of the different groups, which helps, we have got the urgency of a cause, we got ourselves organised in the aftermath of Brexit - I think we work pretty well together,” he tells me.

Turning to transport, what progress does Spiers think the UK is making to decarbonise, what’s going well and what’s holding us back? “We are making pretty good progress in technical terms. To get the agreement to phase out petrol and diesel vehicles by 2030 was a great success, though its very regrettable that the prime minister has put that back to 2035. We really need to get ahead of the curve on electrification and decarbonising. The harder task on transport is anything that looks like behaviour change, anything that looks like saying that people should drive less or fly less or get the bus and politicians are really frightened of that,” he says.

Despite the need to rapidly cut emissions to meet the country’s net zero target, transport emissions have remained stubbornly high. I ask him about how we change that. “The best way to go about it is to make the alternatives to private transport more attractive. The government is

right to invest in buses and try and make them cheaper but we also need a long-term strategy, including things like high-speed rail and the recent cancellation of that is not helping at all,” Spiers says.

He thinks that bigger thinking is needed. “We need to make a national mission of transport. And that means investing in public transport. The government isn’t doing enough. The scrapping of HS2 should be a real wake-up call for the country. If we can’t get that right, what can we do?”

I ask him whether there’s a danger that this government or one in the future will backtrack on their commitments in the face of economic challenges. “There’s certainly a danger, but not on the zero-emissions vehicle mandate because that decision has been taken. Businesses always say that they need certainty and consistency of policy so long-term investment decisions can be taken, so think that policy is safe,” Spiers says.

He does worry though about the politicisation of sustainability. “The big question now is whether we are going to have a general election where all the main parties are saying the future of this country is to decarbonise and we need to go with a net zero future, or is there going to be

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a political cleavage with the Conservatives saying we can’t afford it and that it’s going to add costs so we need to throttle back? It’s a bit depressing that the environment has become a political dividing line and that’s not good. This should not be a party-political issue – it’s about the future of the country,” says Spiers.

Apart from his infectious optimism, Spiers draws inspiration for the future from the people he works alongside every day. “I’m inspired by my colleagues who are all so bright and committed. What is the way to achieve change? It’s not just by producing reports or saying the right thing, it’s by saying the right thing at the right time and getting it to the right people to achieve that change. Practical stuff that makes an impact. Sometimes it can take years but it’s inspiring when it happens,” he tells me.

I ask him about planning, an issue close to his heart. He wrote a book about it, How to build houses and save the countryside, while he was CEO of the Campaign for the Protection of Rural England. “Planning is hugely important. We need to reboot the planning system, invest in it, say that we have a national mission and a challenge and plan for it positively and engage

people in it. Planning can be an enabler so let’s stop stigmatising planners and plan properly for the nature rich zero carbon future that we need. I wish I could hear that from more politicians,” he says.

Finally, we return to where we started the interview and the issue of optimism. So, how optimistic is he about the future? “One of Green Alliance’s values is optimism, so it’s compulsory, I have to be optimistic. Even though the scale of the climate challenge is huge, we can do it. Businesses are ahead of politics, people are ahead of politics, so I am optimistic despite the political machinations. We have to do this and there are enough good signs that humankind can make it happen,” says Spiers.

You can listen to the full interview with Shaun Spiers and other changemakers we have interviewed over the last two years on our Climate Perspectives Spotify channel here.

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Energy Storage: Horses for courses.

Net Zero is achievable, affordable and essential – for the UK and for most other countries. A small minority (Mino henceforth, for brevity) still sees fit to question those three facts. The arguments upon which Mino bases its objections weaken by the day. Two points trotted out repeatedly by Mino relate to offshore wind in particular: (1) the energy produced by windfarms in the UK so far has been moderately expensive and (2) the wind resource does not always coincide with the occurrence of high energy demand. Point #1 is valid – but Mino extrapolates incorrectly from this point to conclude that offshore wind must necessarily be expensive in future. The strongest evidence that wind power and solar

power deliver low cost per unit of energy collected comes from the everincreasing occurrence of cases where hard-nosed businesses are installing solar panels and wind turbines to supply their energy needs. This report is a good case-in-point. Point #2 is commonly misunderstood. Of course, no fixed mixture of solar panels and wind turbines can magically deliver output energy exactly matching demand. Mino is correct to assert that IF we were to attempt to use lithiumion batteries to provide all of the energy storage suitable for reconciling supply and demand in future zerocarbon energy system, the costs would be unacceptable. In energy storage, like everything else, there are horses for courses.

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A report entitled Large-scale Electricity Storage was published in September 2023 by the Royal Society (R-S). This examined whether a Net Zero UK electricity system UK could be achieved affordably using energy storage to provide all flexibility. It was recognised that spreading power between countries via interconnectors does help. Similarly, managing demand can help - but both of these measures have limitations. Prof. Sir Chris Llewellyn Smith (a former Director-General of CERN) led the RS report development and commanded a formidable team of experts in the field of clean energy to get the best available evidence. The R-S report revealed some striking findings:

• To understand the problem properly, it is necessary to model several decades of data for both demand and supply characteristics. The R-S work used 37 years and the Met Office recommended 60 or more. No other substantive report had taken this long view.

• Both wind power and solar power are strongly seasonal and by mixing them optimally, we get a system in which net supply (averaged over a few weeks) varies approximately like net

demand. That optimum calls for a mix of energy from wind:solar of about 80:20

• The energy collected from a fleet of wind turbines in a year has strong variation. In a future Net Zero energy system, this year-toyear variability drives a realisation that substantial amounts of energy might be stored for several years at a time.

• In a cost-optimal Net Zero UK, several tens of TWh of electricity storage are called for. It is realistic for the UK to implement most of this storage using hydrogen stored in salt caverns. As well as being rich in wind resource, the UK is fortunate also to have large deposits of bedded salt suitable for caverns.

• The costs of implementing storage using hydrogen stored in caverns is about 0.5% of the cost of lithium batteries for the same output electrical energy. The salt caverns would credibly last a century or two. Implementing, say, 40TWh of such storage might cost us ~£30bn – much less than one year of present UK energy costs.

Perhaps predictably, Mino sought to discredit the report and challenged

various aspects without any success and with several striking instances of desperation. An assertion around how much energy would be required to realise 1kWh of electricity storage capacity was incorrect by a factor of 2,400!

Mino is absolutely right about one thing though: the UK taxpayer and energy consumer should expect clear and quantitative explanations behind choices made on our behalf.

It is beyond doubt that the future Net Zero UK will draw much of its primary energy input from wind power. Agglomerating renewable energy supply and electricity demand over the country and then scaling generation and storage such that they can meet demand, we find that >90% of all energy coming from energy storage would emerge in periods between 6 and 200 hours.

The R-S report found we can operate a Net Zero UK using hydrogen in caverns for storage and achieving costs well below £100/MWh. Cost reductions of 5%-10% are possible if we blend in compressed air, liquid air or pumped thermal energy storage technologies. Then the spend on these technologies would be approximately the same as the spend on the hydrogen technologies and roughly 65% of the energy emerging from storage would come from these. Our energy storage needs and opportunities will be driven mainly by wind power characteristics. The solutions we choose should match those. The nature of resources in the UK determines the course we will take towards decarbonising power. We should be careful to select the appropriate energy storage horses to compete on that course.

Is Category Design the Secret to a True Triple Bottom line Business?

What do net positive homes, hydrogen cars, direct carbon capture, green pensions, ocean plastic trainers and plant-based tuna all have in common? Guessed it? They are all regenerative categories.

Some of the categories mentioned above now operate in billion dollar industries and are building businesses that are visibly contributing to a more meaningful cause. Regenerative categories can deliver powerful strategies that will eventually touch and transform the landscape of every global industry.

So, can category creation really save us from a climate disaster? OK, I’ll break it down a bit…

Let's start with the basics. What is regenerative? I find it best to say repair or repairing. We have a damaged planet that's being broken by modern day existence. It desperately needs repairing.

So what is a category? Your category is the space in which the business and brand operates. It's the problem that it solves or the value that it offers. The difference between regenerative category design to normal category design is that there’s an equal focus on planetary impact as well as consumer problem or perceived value.

Most categories are chaotic, competitive and inconsistent. Yours is probably very similar. But if you

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carve off a new space, niche down and design a new category that is simple to understand, in-demand and consistent, you can play in your own playground. A more profitable space that supports people and the planet. This is described as regenerative category design.

Category design can be a gamechanger for businesses looking to innovate new products, differentiate themselves from competitors and contribute meaningfully to the planet with minimum impact. The core unified value that binds leadership teams is a mindset and unwavering commitment that business is about promoting life.

Regenerative categories should:

• Advance the health of ecological systems with practices that protect and promote nature and the natural world

• Continually decrease planetary impact, restore natural spaces and sequester more greenhouse gases than it omits

• Guard the health of (and provide equitable living for) its workers, supply chains and the communities that are impacted the most by its direct or indirect operations

Designing a new category is a process of reinvention. Through a decade of observing strategies from planet conscious and successful leaders, I’ve put together some key steps to designing a new regenerative category…

Shape

Spend tonnes of time with the community you want to help. Meet them where they are. Literally! Go and meet them where they live, work, socialise, understand their worries and stresses. What part of your industry, sector or vertical creates the most amount of headache? How could your new category play a role in their life? What problem would it solve?

Design

Is there a space to niche down into those problems? Do you have a solution that is the more sustainable option whilst creating demand and value in your customers' lives? Much like in traditional category design, here, you're designing the space surrounding your company. It's not just about what you sell, your category is the very solution and value you want customers to associate with your identity.

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Audit

Auditing the new category’s impact ensures that your newly shaped category aligns with planetary and social boundaries. There are many frameworks and processes to guide our audit but the one we use is the Doughnut Economic Model. This is a ring-shaped framework that helps us understand how to stay within said boundaries.

Align

This critical stage ensures that the category we've shaped aligns with our collective purpose.

How can we make sure our new category stays true to our brand DNA? Pause and reflect. What are the foundational values that we believe in? What societal and environmental goals do we aim to achieve? By reaffirming our purpose, we set the stage for a category that is not just in alignment, but amplifies our broader vision.

As we align, it's crucial to ensure ethical coherence. Does every component of our category adhere to ethical standards? From sourcing materials to production practices, ethical alignment reinforces our commitment to sustainability - every link in the chain matters.

To sum it up: yes, category creation can really save us from a climate disaster, but it's not just about the products or services. It's about the impact you bring to the world. In embracing regenerative practices, you're not just designing a category; you're designing the entire ethos of your company.

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Investigating the effects of temperature extremes on urban trees

Urban trees play a vital role in enhancing the cultural and ecological environment of cities globally. Tree planting is a vital tool in progress on sustainability in cities worldwide. As well as greatly enhancing the aesthetics of a place, trees also support and enhance the mental and physical well-being of those who reside in the city, offering green vistas, and spaces for recreation and relaxation. Trees provide substantial benefits that are crucial for urban ecosystems: trees act as natural air purifiers, mitigating pollution by absorbing harmful gases and particulate matter while releasing oxygen for us to breathe. They also sequester carbon dioxide, older and larger trees absorb more than smaller

and younger trees. Very importantly, trees have been shown to reduce urban heat effects through shade and evapotranspiration (moving water into the atmosphere). As we see global temperatures rise, urban trees can play a critical role in regulating temperatures in cities around the world and making them habitable places. Additionally, urban trees foster biodiversity, providing habitat for urban wildlife.

The significance of trees in urban environments is widely acknowledged. However, escalating global temperatures resulting from climate change pose a significant threat to many species of trees in cities, especially those being newly planted as part of sustainability

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Ramla Khan and colleague are pictured while collecting physiology data from the outdoor experimental system consisting of eight Acer Campestre trees, the most popular choice of species for UK urban tree planting.

activities. With increasing temperature ranges and extreme weather patterns, many urban trees struggle to thrive and mature to sequester carbon at the rates we need.

Open University doctoral researcher, Ramla Khan has delved into this pressing issue, examining the repercussions of rising temperatures and heatwaves by studying the effects of climate change on trees in Milton Keynes.

Using Treezilla, a citizen science tool that collects data from the public on the location of various tree species and genus in the UK, 7,750 trees were found to be mapped in Milton Keynes. This includes 200 of the most common tree species found in the UK: Acer Campestris Elegant (Field Maple). The Open University campus is now the site of a controlled set-up comprising eight Acer Campestre trees housed in 90-liter pots, alongside a reservoir tank equipped with a float chamber and mesocosms to enable the collection of physiology data from the trees and illustrate the impact of the frequent and intense heatwaves of 2022 on the physiological functions of the tree specimens.

In addition, data from Sentinel-2 satellite imagery (Google Earth)

enables examination of the city’s treescape and plotting of the effects of weather conditions on the health status of the city’s trees, in particular, the 200 Field Maple. In the spatial maps generated, the effects of temperature rise on the city’s trees is clearly visible in browning effects and stress. In 2018, the four heatwaves of that year are visible in this way and during those months when the trees were impacted, they were struggling to produce all the wonderful benefits outlined above. In addition, we don’t know the long-term impact of regular heat stress on the maturity and lifespan of urban trees.

The effects of climate change are leading to rising temperatures and weather extremes which mean that many recently planted native trees in urban areas will struggle to cope with the stress. Trees are such a vital part of urban life, and this research intends to inform city planners, landscapers and developers so that they can think long-term about the species of trees they are planting and how they respond to climate extremes. Sadly, many of the native species we currently plant may not bring the benefits we are counting on in later years in a changing climate.

The good news is that different tree species have different resilience

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levels in response to extreme temperatures, so we are starting to be able to specify species more likely to be resilient to predicted climate impacts.

Knowledge is key and one of the ways we can all play our part is through becoming a citizen scientist and using Treezilla to map our local trees and make the information openly available. There is a fascinating variety of urban trees in the UK and Ireland, however knowledge of what they are and where they are is poor. There may be as many as 1.5 billion urban trees in the UK, but fewer than ten percent are recorded in databases. A much smaller percentage are available in open and online information for the public –the most common example is through local authority Tree Preservation Orders. By open mapping the UK’s urban trees, we can understand more about where our trees are at risk and help produce strategies to combat rising temperatures and help our trees continue their vital work.

Treezilla is an ambitions project to map all of Britain's trees and record vital data about tree disease and the environmental benefits that trees provide. It is a platform for a wide range of enquiry-led scientific

investigations using real data from trees.

Why not map the trees near your business, near your work, in your garden, street or playground and upload photos or simply browse the trees in your area?

To find out more, log onto www.treezilla.org - you may also be interested in the guided activities that we have available for Treezilla in The OpenScience Laboratory.

To find out more about collaborating on our sustainability-related research, please visit Open Societal Challenges.

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