Pacific Northwest Market Report - Q3 2023 - South Region

Q3 2023

OREGON • SW WASHINGTON • PUGET SOUND

PAC I F I C N O R T H W ES T

Q3

2023 MARKET REPORT

ABOUT THIS REPORT The Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Quarterly Market Report features the latest MLS data and local market statistics. Through year-over-year comparisons of key performance indicators and market summaries, this report delivers a comprehensive overview of residential real estate activity for the regions we service across the Pacific Northwest, including: • Mid-Willamette Valley (Marion, Polk, Linn, and Benton) • Eugene, Coastal, and Southern Oregon (Lane, Tillamook, and Douglas) • Central Oregon • Greater Portland Metro Area • Southwest Washington (Vancouver Metro Area) • Greater Seattle Metro Area (King, Pierce, Snohomish, and Thurston)

Learn about trends affecting sales activity and price, read decisive takeaways for each market, and empower yourself with Northwest Knowledge.

ABOUT US Since 1942, we’ve been helping people buy and sell homes in Oregon and Washington. With 33 offices and a growing regional network of nearly 1,000 real estate professionals, we lead the Northwest in delivering exceptional service backed by data-driven market intelligence, just like you’ll find throughout this report.

For more information and assistance to help successfully navigate today’s real estate market, contact your local Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices broker.

We are All statistics are based upon MLS data for the period of 07/01/23 - 09/30/23.

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES

PAC I F I C N O R T H W ES T

Q3

2023 MARKET REPORT

LET TER FROM THE EDITOR As we navigate the fall and winter months, buyers and sellers alike are keeping a close watch on interest rates, which have had a significant impact on the housing market and made affordability more of a challenge for many buyers. With homeowners unwilling to part with their lower interest rates unless life events necessitate a move, buyer demand continues to exceed inventory for sale.

The low number of available homes in Oregon and Washington is reflective of the limited listing inventory across the U.S. and that trend is expected to continue, instilling optimism in sellers in the year ahead while the slower pace of the market may provide encouragement to home buyers seeking more flexible terms. With prices being closely linked to inventory levels, a slight increase in median home prices is anticipated through the end of next year.

Across the Northwest, average sales prices in Q3 were generally higher than the previous quarter yet showed mixed results in some submarkets, ranging from modest movement to double-digit percentage increases and decreases. This has been a year impacted by inflation and rising interest rates which we anticipate will begin to trend downward and create a more balance market in the coming year, offering hope and opportunity for both buyers and sellers in our region.

I am confident the insights shared in this report will provide valuable perspectives as you navigate the ever-evolving real estate landscape. You can trust the expertise of a Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices real estate professional to help guide you through the buying or selling process today, tomorrow, and forever.

Melanie Weidenbach, President & CEO

LET TER FROM THE EDITOR

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES

Mid-Willamette Valley (Marion, Polk, Linn, and Benton) Inventory remained low and sales activity was down throughout the Mid-Willamette Valley, as buyers eyed rising rates with caution and sellers saw widespread price adjustments that gave them pause. Tight inventory and higher rates continue to constrain would-be buyers, but as inventory rises month-over month, buyers should expect more selection in the new year.

DAYS ON MARKET Average days on market increased 42% to 44 days this quarter. In Monmouth, average days on market was up a slight 4% to 51, days but in Philomath, average days on market climbed significantly, rising 52% to 38 days. At 37 days, Salem/Keizer posted the fastest average time period; however, this figure still represented a 32% rise from yearago figures.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE IAverage sales price ($453,188) was flat in the Mid-Willamette Valley compared with this time last year. Prices in Monmouth skyrocketed, up 54% from year-ago figures to record the highest average sales price in the region at $708,728.

PENDING SALES, NEW LISTINGS, & ACTIVE LISTINGS Pending sales declined 12% to end Q3 2023 at 1,114. Active listings were also down, dropping 14% from year-ago figures to 2,487 from 2,889 last year, and new istings (1,482) fell 23% compared with this time last year.

HOME SALES Closed transactions in Marion and Polk Counties declined 19% compared with Q3 2022, ending this quarter at 1,144. In Monmouth, closed units (23) were down 61% year-over-year, but in Independence, closed units increased, rising 8% to 40 units this quarter.

Q3

PAC I F I C N O R T H W ES T

2023 MARKET REPORT

MID-WILLAMETTE VALLEY 2022

2023

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE $451,885

SALEM/ KEIZER

28

$438,051

37

$472,197

STAYTON

24

$414,370

61

$460,976

DALLAS

30

$444,128

44

$460,177

MONMOUTH

49 $708,728

$422,384

INDEPENDENCE

36

$404,324

54 $487,132

PHILOMATH

25

$514,295

ALBANY

38

$442,989

28

$442,830

39 $562,086

CORVALLIS

34

$543,562

LEBANON

31

$395,883

33

$398,362

64

$370,866

SWEET HOME

37

$345,599

$0K

MID-WILLAMET TE VALLEY

$100K

$200K

$300K

51

56

$400K

$500K

$800K

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES

Q3

PAC I F I C N O R T H W ES T

2023 MARKET REPORT

MID-WILLAMETTE VALLEY 2023

2022

NUMBER OF CLOSED UNITS

1200 1000 910

800 600

731

400

SALEM/ KEIZER

200

320 300 280 260

257

240

243

220 200

208

180 166

160 140 120

129

100

109

80

93

93

68

60 59

55 37

SWEET HOME

LEBANON

CORVALLIS

22

PHILOMATH

MONMOUTH

STAYTON MID-WILLAMET TE VALLEY

40

23

22

INDEPENDENCE

20

37

ALBANY

44

DALLAS

40

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES

Eugene, Coastal,& Southern Oregon (Lane, Tillamook, and Douglas) Eugene, Coastal and Southern Oregon posted moderate gains and losses this quarter. New listings were slightly lower than this time last year, active listings were slightly higher, and average sales price edged up overall, though various cities saw double-digit percentage price declines and gains.

DAYS ON MARKET Average days on market in the region was up 36% from year-ago figures, ending Q3 at 34 days. In Tillamook, it jumped 148% to an average of 109 days. Eugene posted the fastest average market time at 26 days, which was a 30% rise from this time last year.

CLOSED UNITS Closed units fell 17% year-over-year to 1,566 this quarter.

While most cities in the region also posted closed unit declines, there were three notable standouts: In Florence, closed units (111) only decreased by 1%; in Garibaldi, closed units (2) were unchanged from last year; and in Netarts/Oceanside, closed units (12) increased 20% from year-ago figures.

NEW LISTINGS, ACTIVE LISTINGS, AND PENDING SALES Throughout the region, new listings dropped 5% to 2,099, active listings increased 1% to 3,299 and pending sales missed the mark by 12% to end the quarter at 1,526 compared with 1,739 in Q3 of last year.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE Average sales price increased 1% to $454,149 in Eugene, Coastal and Southern Oregon. In Tillamook, average sales price ($449,223) was 14% higher than Q3 2022. Netarts/Oceanside posted the highest average – $613,458, still a 29% drop in average sales price compared with this time last year.

Q3

PAC I F I C N O R T H W ES T

2023 MARKET REPORT

EUGENE, COASTAL, & SOUTHERN OREGON 2022

2023

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE $514,630

EUGENE

26

$380,220

ROSEBURG GARIBALDI

31

$368,212

38

$351,250

20

$301,250

37

$395,446

TILLAMOOK

44

$449,223

109 $858,500

NETARTS/ OCEANSIDE

$613,458

35

$466,123

$150K

EUGENE, COASTAL, & SOUTHERN OREGON

$300K

$450K

17 42

$429,214

FLORENCE

$0K

20

$520,593

49

$600K

$750K

$900K

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES

PAC I F I C N O R T H W ES T

Q3

2023 MARKET REPORT

EUGENE, COASTAL, & SOUTHERN OREGON 2022

2023

NUMBER OF CLOSED UNITS

850 800 750 721

130

650 614

110

550

112

111

100

500

90

450

80

400

70

350

60

300

50

250

40

150

173

39

30

26

20

100

10

50 ROSEBURG

EUGENE

2

EUGENE, COASTAL, & SOUTHERN OREGON

10

2

12

FLORENCE

195

NETARTS/ OCEANSIDE

200

TILLAMOOK

600

120

GARIBALDI

700

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES

Central Oregon New listings, active listings, closed transactions, and pending sales all experienced year-over-year declines in Central Oregon, but with low inventory and strong demand from those buyers remaining in the buyer pool, average prices held steady. The days-on-market average nearly doubled, reflecting a wait-and-see approach among buyers looking for price adjustments, lower interest rates or ideally, both.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE Compared with this time last year, average sales price in Central Oregon ($795,860) remained virtually unchanged. In a city-by-city analysis, results are mixed: Year over year, average sales price was flat in Redmond/Terrebonne ($556,786), fell 21% in Sunriver ($699,515), and increased 3% in Bend ($924,355), where the highest average sales price in the region was recorded.

CLOSED TRANSACTIONS & PENDING SALES Closed transactions declined 11% from year-ago figures to end Q3 2023 at 1,146. Across the board, closed transactions were down in all cities surveyed for this report, but fell most dramatically in Bend, where 655 units represented a 15% decrease from year-ago figures. Pending sales (1,135) were down 2% compared with this time last year.

NEW LISTINGS & ACTIVE LISTINGS At 1,312, new listings in Central Oregon decreased 17% year-over-year. Active listings were also lower, falling 7% from year-ago figures to 2,476 this quarter.

DAYS ON MARKET Jumping 41%, average days on market in Central Oregon increased to 41 days, compared with 29 days in Q3 2022. In Sunriver, average days on market (56 days) increased 124% from year-ago figures, though results were less dramatic elsewhere in the region, such as Redmond/Terrebonne, where average days on market (37 days) was up 28% from this time last year.

PAC I F I C N O R T H W ES T

Q3

2023 MARKET REPORT

CENTRAL OREGON 2022

2023

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE $894,101

BEND

$924,355

REDMOND/ TERREBONNE

$557,143

29 37 $888,727 $699,515

$150K

$300K

35

$556,786

SUNRIVER

$0K

26

$450K

$600K

25 56

$750K

$900K

NUMBER OF CLOSED UNITS 450 400 1,200

350

1,050

300

600

250

771 655

200

450

150

300

100

150

50

BEND CENTRAL OREGON

265 261

66

62

SUNRIVER

750

REDMOND/ TERREBONNE

900

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES

Greater Portland Metro Area Inventory continues to increase throughout the Greater Portland Metro Area, which is putting pressure on prices throughout the region, especially as affordability wanes amid higher interest rates. Activity slowed this quarter, with new listings, active listings, pending sales, and closed transactions all posting lower figures than this time last year.

DAYS ON MARKET In the Greater Portland Metro Area, average market time increased 39% to an average of 32 days. Across the region, average days on market was up, though on a percentage basis it jumped the most in Tigard/Tualatin – a 200% year-over-year climb to an average of 57 days – and the least in West Linn – a 8% year-over-year rise to an average of 26 days.

NEW LISTINGS, ACTIVE LISTINGS, & PENDING SALES New listings (8,596) fell 16% from year-ago figures and pending sales (5,798) were down 14% compared with Q3 of last year. Active listings declined 9% year-overyear to end Q3 2023 at 13,257.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE Average sales price in the Greater Portland Metro Area was $610,969 this quarter, a 1% drop from year-ago figures. Lake Oswego recorded the highest average sales price in the region – $1,221,571, which was a 16% increase from year-ago figures. Average sales price in Sherwood also saw double-digit percentage gains, jumping 20% year-over-year to $848,294.

CLOSED TRANSACTIONS Closed transactions (6,069) missed the mark by 19% compared with this time last year, but a city-by-city analysis reveals losses and gains. In Tigard/Tualatin, closed units dropped 55% from year-ago figures to 123, but in McMinnville, closed units increased 6% from year-ago figures to 137 this quarter.

Q3

PAC I F I C N O R T H W ES T

2023 MARKET REPORT

GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA 2022

2023

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE $759,755

PORTLAND - W

28

$724,302

38

$510,015

PORTLAND - N

25

$476,818

PORTLAND - NE

34 $594,281

21

$588,967

27

$543,440

PORTLAND - SE

23

$515,022

25

NW WASHINGTON COUNTY

$744,130

22

$764,551

26 $1,050,338

LAKE OSWEGO

24

$876,095

26

$508,819

GRESHAM/ TROUTDALE

23

$482,648

27 $579,737

SANDY

22

$536,463

MILWAUKIE/ CLACKAMAS/ HAPPY VALLEY

36

$597,614

25

$577,295

34

OREGON CITY

$608,709

27

$606,054

34

$620,371

CANBY

24

$572,277

BEAVERTON/ ALOHA

64

$553,572

21

$555,080

24

$630,089

TIGARD/ TUALATIN

19

$613,318

WILSONVILLE HILLSBORO/ FOREST GROVE

57 $715,391

21

$706,746

30

$591,482

23

$565,181

29 $705,702

SHERWOOD

21 $848,294

41

$462,924

MCMINNVILLE

21

$490,662

33 $633,819 $627,594

YAMHILL/ CARLTON

22 51

$575,188

NEWBERG

$250K

27

$906,700

WEST LINN

COLUMBIA COUNTY

19

$1,221,571

19

$537,897

30

$450,787

25

$435,732

$375K

GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA

38

$500K

$625K

$750K

$875K

$1M

$1.25 M

$1.5 M

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES

Q3

PAC I F I C N O R T H W ES T

2023 MARKET REPORT

GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA 2023

2022

NUMBER OF CLOSED UNITS 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 900

800

720 692

632

610 505

300

336 283

387 307

244

203 204 108

WEST LINN

LAKE OSWEGO

NW WASHINGTON COUNTY

PORTLAND - SE

PORTLAND - NE

PORTLAND - N

201

MILWAUKIE/ CLACKAMAS/ HAPPY VALLEY

159

100

PORTLAND - W

349 299

GRESHAM/ TROUTDALE

200

497

480

400

172

116

113

BEAVERTON/ ALOHA

500

CANBY

600

770

OREGON CITY

700

700 600 500 498

400

403

300

GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA

172 129

102

137

MCMINNVILLE

COLUMBIA COUNTY

SANDY

74

26

24

144

126

NEWBERG

100

SHERWOOD

103

HILLSBORO/ FOREST GROVE

123

124

106

YAMHILL/ CARLTON

201

TIGARD/ TUALATIN

100

274

WILSONVILLE

200

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES

Southwest Washington (Vancouver Metro Area) New listings and active listings were both down in Southwest Washington, reflecting low levels of inventory, but average sales price dropped just 2% from year-ago figures as high demand in the Vancouver Metro Area kept home prices relatively steady.

DAYS ON MARKET Average days on market in the Vancouver Metro Area lengthened 11% from year-ago figures to 30 days. In Battle Ground, average days on market jumped 53% year-overyear to 49 days, but in Washougal, average days on market fell 26% to an average of 31 days. At 26 days, Vancouver posted the fastest days on market average for the region, which represented an 8% rise from Q3 figures last year.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE In Southwest Washington, average sales price ($592,897) declined 2% from year-ago figures. In Battle Ground, average sales price ($615,517) fell 24% compared with this time last year, though in Woodland, average sales price ($608,073) increased 19% on a year-over-year basis.

CLOSED TRANSACTIONS & PENDING SALES Closed transactions dropped 20% to end the quarter at 1,698. Year-over-year, closed units in La Center nearly doubled, jumping 50% to 54 units this quarter. In Longview/Kelso, closed units revealed a different story, dropping 32% from year-ago figures to a total of 170 units this quarter.

NEW LISTINGS & ACTIVE LISTINGS Compared with year-ago figures, new listings (2,120) decreased 17%, active listings declined 15% to 3,227, and pending sales fell by 17% to 1,575 this quarter.

Q3

PAC I F I C N O R T H W ES T

2023 MARKET REPORT

SW WASHINGTON METRO AREA 2022

2023

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE $526,629

VANCOUVER

24

$537,409

26 $725,316

WASHOUGAL

42

$661,968

31 $813,566

BAT TLE GROUND

32

$615,517

49

$512,931

WOODLAND

30 $608,073

41

$657,932

LA CENTER

37

$584,285

31 $702,907

RIDGEFIELD

23

$639,971

35 $799,447

CAMAS

29

$838,859

LONGVIEW/ KELSO

$200K

$300K

31

$381,325

26

$398,092

31

$400K

$500K

$600K

$700K

$800K

$900K

NUMBER OF CLOSED UNITS 325 2000

300

1800

250

1600

225

249

1400

176

150 125

600

100

400

75

200

50

135

103

132

94

55

SW WASHINGTON METRO AREA

WOODLAND

BAT TLE GROUND

WASHOUGAL

VANCOUVER

40

54 36

LONGVIEW/ KELSO

800

170 156

CAMAS

1,050

178

RIDGEFIELD

1000

182

175

LA CENTER

1200

200 1,263 1,363 1,252

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES

Greater Seattle Metro Area (King, Pierce, Snohomish, and Thurston) While Q3 usually experiences an early-autumn housing market slowdown, this decrease in activity was compounded by rising rates that continue to sideline buyers and impact affordability. With pent-up demand and low inventory in the Greater Seattle Metro Area, prices are expected to gradually increase throughout the new year.

DAYS ON MARKET In the Greater Seattle Metro Area, days on market increased 9% from an average of 23 days in Q3 last year to 25 days this quarter. Gig Harbor/Key Peninsula recorded the highest days on market average for the region at 40 days, which was a 60% jump from year-ago figures. Some areas went against the regional trend; days on market in Snohomish County (23 days) fell 4% compared with this time last year and days on market in Kirkland/Bridle Trails (16 days) dropped 27% this quarter from Q3 last year.

CLOSED TRANSACTIONS Closed transactions (13,425) were down 21% compared with the same period last year. Across the Greater Seattle Metro Area, closed units fell, though they declined the least on a percentage basis in West Seattle, where 417 closed units this quarter represented just a 3% decrease from Q3 2022.

PENDING SALES, NEW LISTINGS, & ACTIVE LISTINGS Pending sales (13,013) declined 18% from year-ago figures; new listings (16,441) dropped 25% year-over-year, and active listings in the Greater Seattle Metro Area(22,802) missed the mark by 26% compared with this time last year.

AVERAGE SALES PRICE Average sales price increased 2% from year-ago figures, ending Q3 2023 at $852,265. Throughout the region, average sales prices didn’t follow a consistent trend, posting numbers that were both up and down compared with Q3 last year. Notably, in Juanita/Woodinville, sales price was up 18% from year-ago figures, ending Q3 2023 at an average of $1,488,467. Average sales price decreased the most on a percentage basis in North Seattle, with a 5% year-over-year decline and a Q3 2023 average sales price of $1,019,156.

Q3

PAC I F I C N O R T H W ES T

2023 MARKET REPORT

GREATER SEATTLE METRO AREA 2022

AVERAGE SOLD PRICE KING COUNTY PIERCE COUNTY

$1,014,411

21

$1,040,431

23

$613,856

25

$600,913

28

SNOHOMISH COUNTY THURSTON COUNTY

$774,997

24

$776,467

23

$542,871

22

$561,954

26

WEST SEAT TLE

$876,859

18

$872,997

24

CENTRAL SEAT TLE

$1,102,345

19

$1,118,727

29

$1,074,635

NORTH SEAT TLE

16

$1,019,156

BURIEN/ NORMANDY PARK KENT

21

$640,034

19

$718,791

29

$621,761

22

$631,782

26 $1,560,914

BELLEVUE FEDERAL WAY/ DASH POINT

PUYALLUP

22

$1,686,652

19

$589,599

20

$568,103

22

GIG HARBOR/KEY PENINSULA TACOMA/ UNIVERSITY PLACE

$877,188

25

$914,706

40

$548,792

23

$536,992

24

$577,534

28

$566,015

25

$813,298

LYNNWOOD/ EDMONDS

22

$846,829

EVERET T

19

$622,553

21

$628,265

18 $2,803,104

MERCER ISLAND

21

$1,358,183

20

$1,390,339

22

$1,368,042

16

$1,260,352

JUANITA/ WOODINVILLE

$0K

20

$1,333,970

KIRKLAND/BRIDLE TRAILS

LACEY/ DUPONT

20

$2,735,579

REDMOND/ CARNATION

OLYMPIA

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

2023

24

$1,488,467

26

$588,232

21

$625,158

25

$525,180

22

$532,198

24

$375K

GREATER SEAT TLE METRO AREA

$750K

$1.1M

$1.5M

$1.8M

$2.2M

$2.6M

$3M

$3.3M

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES

Q3

PAC I F I C N O R T H W ES T

2023 MARKET REPORT

GREATER SEATTLE METRO AREA 2023

2022

NUMBER OF CLOSED UNITS 11,000 10,000

900

9,000

800 700

8,019

600

7,000

500 400

5,000

432

417

300

4,000 3,531

249

239

GIG HARBOR/ KEY PENINSULA

FEDERAL WAY/ DASH POINT

BELLEVUE

KENT

1,082

THURSTON COUNTY

SNOHOMISH COUNTY

1,390

PIERCE COUNTY

330

307

100

1,000

KING COUNTY

401

287

200 2,755

417 339

BURIEN/ NORMANDY PARK

2,915

2,000

347

336

300

WEST SEAT TLE

3,000

432

NORTH SEAT TLE

3,978

439

434

1,750

700

1,500

600

1,250

500

1,281

1,000 931

GREATER SEAT TLE METRO AREA

112

JUANITA/ WOODINVILLE

KIRKLAND/ BRIDLE TRAILS

MERCER ISLAND

69

137

82

REDMOND/ CARNATION

100

511

659 487

250

622

537

466

407

408 312

LACEY/DUPONT

706

500

200

OLYMPIA

315

750

344

EVERET T

382

LYNNWOOD/ EDMONDS

355

300

PUYALLUP

400

TACOMA/ UNIVERSITY PLACE

6,000

6,673

CENTRAL SEAT TLE

8,000

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOMESERVICES

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