The Favourites Phenomenon System
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The Favourites Phenomenon System CONSISTENT … STRAIGHTFORWARD … PROFITABLE Finally Setting the record straight on ’stop at a winner’ Introduction Congratulations on your very wise decision to invest in the Favourites Phenomenon System. You are now the fortunate owner of one of the very few publicly disclosed methods which produce consistent long-term profits year after year. I want to point out that ‘Stop At a Winner’ (or SAW for short) has become a very popular form of betting in the last few years. There are numerous tipsters and systems around, many of which, unfortunately, make outrageous and unrealistic claims. Understandably, many of my professional gambling colleagues frown upon this method of betting, and I can see why. Allow me therefore to illustrate where most people go wrong, and more importantly, what you can do to avoid making the same mistakes. 1: People don’t fully understand what they are doing.
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It’s all too easy to start following a tipster or method, without being aware of the implications of what happens when things go wrong. People are often lured into a false sense of security, because these methods can sometimes work for a few weeks on the trot. With the majority of Stop At A Winner methods, whether they be systems or tipster services, what you can be sure of is that eventually (and it usually doesn’t take long), a losing run will come along which will almost certainly wipe away all your profits in one fell swoop, and probably your bank as well. The FP System is spacifically designed to completely minimise any such risks, and it is therefore of the utmost importance that you read this short manual very thoroughly. 2: People try to win too much with a betting bank that is too small. What happens here is that people don’t bother to do any calculations, or shall I say, they don’t really want to face the inevitable, so they start betting, and think to themselves “well, hopefully, that losing day won’t happen to me.” This is total madness, and the only guarantee with this approach I’m afraid, is failure. You need to do some homework first, paper trade and then start with small stakes. 3: People don’t have a plan in place for when things go wrong So, the inevitable losing day comes along, and Pete goes and loses all his profits. Panic sets in, not to mention frustration and despair at yet another system which just doesn’t work. You MUST, under all circumstances, have a plan in place at all times, whether things are going well or whether they are going badly. It’s far better to be over-prepared, so that you always remain level-headed. This will allow you to make decisions based on logic rather than emotion. 4: people lose their nerve 4 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
So the difficult day comes along. There’s no plan in place, no well thought-out strategy, and the stakes are mounting up beyond the comfort zone. Pete starts to get a tight feeling in his stomach, his hands start to shake and all of a sudden, he can’t think clearly. Pete places the next bet and prays that the horse will win. Of course, it loses, and now Pete wishes he hadn’t started this ridiculous SAW betting in the first place. Does this sound familiar? This is why I have finally released my system to the public, the same system I have been using, testing and developing for over two years. You will find below fully documented results, instructions on how to research and check the results yourself, and a very clear and simple explanation of how to use the statistics to generate profit. The Favourites PhenomenonSystem can be operated on 3 levels, with the strike rates consistently being approximately 87, 94 and 98% respectively. I have been personally using the FP System as part of my betting portfolio for the last 2 years, and generated 337 points with the Favourites PhenomenonSystem alone in 2007. The instructions in this manual are incredibly simple, as any good system should be. You’ll be doing yourself a great favour by paper trading and then building up slowly. It’s almost a bit too easy to make money with the FP System, but remember that a big part of making longterm profits, is in keeping losses to an absolute minimum. How To Succeed With The Favourites Phenomenon System 1: Read this manual all the way through. Don’t worry if the occasional thing seems confusing, as it’s good to get a general overview. 5 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
4: Decide whether you are going to start at level 1, 2 or 3. (all will be explained) My recommendation is to start at level 1 (stopping after qualifying race 5) as this is very low risk and will still make you a profit. 4: Decide whether you are going to start at level 1, 2 or 3. (all will be explained) My recommendation is to start at level 1 (stopping after qualifying race 5) as this is very low risk and will still make you a profit. 5: Practice doing the calculations, either with the calculator I have provided, or with your preferred betting software. Speed is of the essence, and the more you practice, the easier it will become. 6: Paper trade for at least 2 weeks, preferably longer. This will give you time to get used to the FAVOURITES PHENOMENONSystem in a live environment, without the risk of losing money due to a mistake. 7: After paper trading, start with small stakes, and increase as your confidence and experience grows. Betting with real money is always very different than paper trading. 8: Be patient. This is not a get rich quick system, but rather one that makes a healthy long-term profit. You will quickly build up confidence and expertise, but these things usually donâ€™t happen over night. Remember, itâ€™s persistence not perfection which will get you through the inevitable difficult moments along the way. Make a commitment to succeed, and then go for it. How the Favourites PhenomenonSystem came into existence 6 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
I’m sure most of you will be familiar with the commonly (and over-hyped) statistic that favourites win about 33% of their races. This is absolutely true, but it’s certainly no use on its own as far as making a profit goes. Another well-known fact is that a day rarely goes by without at least 1 favourite winning its race. Again this is true, but it’s still not much use to us on its own. Given the above information however, I started to see if I could see any patterns that might help to bring some of these factors together. After many hours of painstaking research and thought, I stumbled on something quite amazing. I noticed that the vast majority of the time, a favourite would win a race within the first 5 races of the day. The figure is approximately 87% in fact, and this is something which has remained constant for many years. In looking further however, I discovered some more data and patterns which lessened the losing days, and ultimately lessened the risks. Between races 1-5 a favourite will win approximately 87% of the time. Between races 1-7, the figure goes up to about 94% and between races 1-9 it is a staggering 98 to 99%. My research and results clearly show that there is absolutely no point going beyond race 9, in fact doing so could prove to be disastrous. The last major piece of information is that you will never need to bet at odds lower than 5/6 or 1.85 on Betfair. Many odds-on favourites lose and their prices are often the subject of manipulation. This can dramatically increase the stakes for us, and that’s exactly what we don’t want. It took me a very long time to discover this fact, so please use it to your advantage. 7 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
The Mechanics Behind The Favourites Phenomenon System I will shortly give you the exact steps which I follow to make a profit 98% of the time, and there’s absolutely no reason what so ever why you won’t soon be in the same position. Before this however, we need to walk through how the calculations work, so that we can then put the FP System into action. What I am about to show you are purely the mechanics behind the system. This information is widely available, and I want to be clear that this isn’t what you paid for. I even gave an illustration in the sales letter. So, without further ado, let me introduce you to something known as Profit Per Day, or PPD for short. This is a very simple concept once you get your head round it. Let’s say for example that you want to win £30. The odds of our horse are 2/1, or 3.0 in decimal odds. In order to make a profit of £30, we must stake £15. Here’s how the calculation works: With fractional odds (2/1, 3/1 etc), we divide our target (£30 in this case) by the top number in the fraction, and then multiply the result by the bottom number in the fraction. So, just to be clear, our target is £30, and our odds are 2/1. £30/2 =£15. £15 * 1 = £15 Therefore, our required stake is £15. 8 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
With decimal odds, the calculation is more straightforward. You always deduct 1 from the decimal odds. So, if the odds are 3.0, you take 1 away, to make 2.0. To work out your stake, you divide your target amount (£30 in this case) by 2. Here’s the process. Odds = 3.0 3.0 – 1 = 2 Target amount = £30 £30/2 = £15 Therefore, our stake = £15. If our horse wins, our stake of £15 is returned to us, plus 2 * £15 = £30 profit. Let’s say however, that our horse loses. We’ve lost £15. In the next race, we still want to win £30 (because that’s our PPD, or profit per day), but we need to add our £15 loss from the previous race. Therefore, £30 (ppd) + our £15 loss from race 1 = a target in race two of £45. Let’s say that the odds of our horse in race 2 are 5/2, or 3.5 in decimal. Here’s the fractional calculation. Target = £45. £45/5 (top number in fraction) = 9. 9 * 2 (bottom number in fraction) = £18. Therefore, our stake is £18. With decimal odds, the calculation is like this: Odds = 3.5 9 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
3.5 – 1 = 2.5 Target of £45/2.5 = 18. Therefore, our stake is £18. If the horse wins, we get our £18 stake back, plus £45. Because we lost £15 in race 1, we’ve actually made a profit of £30. I cannot stress how important it is to grasp how these calculations work. If it seems confusing at first, don’t worry, just take your time and understand it step by step. I have provided a special calculator which will take care of all this for us, and I will explain exactly how this works a little later. The Favourites PhenomenonSystem Rules The FAVOURITES PHENOMENONSystem is for use on UK racing only and excludes Irish racing. The actual rules are incredibly simple. There’s no need to study form, or know anything about jockey and trainer stats. As I mentioned earlier, the FAVOURITES PHENOMENON system can be operated on 3 levels. This however, only applies to the number of races you will be betting on, all other rules remain the same across the board. There are 4 rules in the FAVOURITES PHENOMENON system: 1: There must be a minimum of 2 daytime UK race meetings taking place. (Note, 1 daytime meeting and 1 evening meeting doesn’t count, nor does 1 daytime and 2 evening meetings). 2: To qualify as a selection, our horse must be the favourite in the live market, just before the off. 10 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
Personally, I wait until approximately 1 minute before the off before placing the bet. Some people find however that 1 minute doesn’t give them enough time to work out the stake, and if that’s the case then place the bet earlier. It is usually obvious which horse is the favourite, but there will be times when the market is unsure. 3: A favourite only qualifies as a selection if the odds are 5/6 (1.85 decimal) or higher. 5/6 is actually 1.83, but my experience shows that not going below 1.85 is better. 4: This rule is split into 3 parts as it deals with the number of races you will be betting on. 4.1: If a winner is not reached after you have bet on qualifying race 5, then you stop for the day. 4.2: If a winner is not reached after you have bet on qualifying race 7 then you stop for the day. 4.3: If a winner is not reached after you have bet on qualifying race 9 then you stop for the day. You need to decide therefore whether you are going to stop after 5, 7 or 9 races. The eventual aim (and most profitable method) is to go to race 9 if necessary. If you are just starting off however, I recommend stopping after race 5, and build up gradually. One thing you must absolutely avoid is swapping and changing. Once you make your decision, stick to it for at least a month. Staking And Size Of Bank All figures given below are my recommended minimum. For level 1 (stopping after race 5) use a 100 point bank. So, if you have a profit per day of £10, then 10 * 100 = £1000. For level 2 (stopping after race 7), use a 150 point bank. 11 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
So with a profit per day of £10, your bank would be £1500 (10 * 150). For level 3 (stopping after race 9), use a 200 point bank. So with a profit per day of £10, you will need a bank of £2000. I can tell you, both from my own experience and by talking to other people, that the main reason why most people fail to make a profit with this type of betting is because they try and win too much with too small a bank. It is far better (and less stressful) to have a bank that is bigger than it needs to be. The vast majority of the time, the stakes will not be high however, as with any system, there will be losing days. The FAVOURITES PHENOMENON system, along with my extensive research and experience, is designed to keep losses to a minimum. The most sensible thing after a losing day is to just carry on as normal. All three levels of the FAVOURITES PHENOMENONsystem make consistent long-term profits, so there is no need to make life complicated. If you are using level 1, then you will definitely encounter more losing days than if you were using level 2 or 3, but the losses are minimal. You must treat betting like a business. Learn to be unemotional in what you do, as this will help you make logical decisions that are ultimately best for your long-term prosperity. I can’t stress enough that it is Consistency, not Quantity, which leads to long-term profits, and you must always think of the big picture. Important Factors To Consider There is no substitute for experience, and experience comes through practice and hard work. There are however some factors to take into consideration, which again I have 12 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
included to add to the long-term profitability of the FAVOURITES PHENOMENON system. 1: How to deal with delays. Occasionally, there will be a delay at one of the meetings. This usually happens if there has been an accident, or if a horse breaks loose before the off. This can result in the next race (at a different meeting) being run prior to the one which is delayed. My advice here is to just carry on with the sequence as normal, and bet on each race as it comes. You’ve seen by now that I like to keep things simple, and I’ve found this approach to be the most effective. 2: Consider avoiding Saturdays and bank holidays Statistically, Saturdays and bank holidays are just as profitable as any other day. Be aware however, that there is more racing on these days, and the chances of overlaps are significantly increased. Sometimes, races are only 5 minutes apart, and I find that this tends to make the margins too tight. Races often overlap or go off at the same time, which doesn’t work at all well for the FAVOURITES PHENOMENONsystem. I would also advise exercising more caution when some of the big racing events are being run such as, the Cheltenham festival, Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood, as the racing is extremely competitive 3: Pay attention to weather conditions Arguably the most important factor in the outcome of a horse race is the going (or ground conditions). Some horses love harder ground, and some love soft. My rule of thumb is this: If it’s pouring with rain at the racecourse in the morning and going conditions have changed significantly, then I tend not to bet on that day. This is a personal decision, and you will develop your own instincts as to what is best suited to your own circumstances. 13 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
4: Preparation About half an hour before the first race of the day, I look at the odds of the favourites for the first 9 races. If you were using levels 1 or 2, then you would look at the first 5 or 7 races respectively. This is an essential step, as it gives you a fairly clear idea of how high your stakes could go in a worst-case scenario. There are occasions where I consider the odds to be too short in general, and therefore opt to play it safe and take the day off. The rough guide I use for myself is this: Level 1: 8 points maximum loss Level 2: 15 points maximum loss Level 3: 30 points maximum loss I realise that we all have differing thresholds when it comes to risk, so my examples above are by no means set in stone. I want to encourage you to put yourself in control of the FAVOURITES PHENOMENONSystem, and this rule of thumb has helped me out enormously. Personally, I feel no need whatsoever to bet everyday, and would rather do so when I am happy with the circumstances and I encourage you to do the same. For clarity, here is an example of how I go about making this assessment. As mentioned above, look at the odds for the days card, about half an hour before the first race is due to start. Make a note of the odds for the first 5, 7 or 9 races, depending on whether you are using level 1, 2 or 3. Next, enter the odds into the calculator I have provided. 14 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
Put an L in the Won/Lost column for each race. This will give you a fairly accurate indication of the level of risk. Example … 5: What to do in the case of joint favourites The simplest thing to do is to skip the race if there are 2 or more joint favourites. As you become more used to the FAVOURITES PHENOMENONSystem however, you may wish to dutch, and this is the approach I now take. As far as the results go however, it makes hardly any difference whatsoever, so just decide what you are comfortable with. Make sure however, that you have your approach clearly defined in your mind before using the system. During your paper trading, you may wish to experiment and see what works best for you. 6: Being clear about the numbering of the races The number of each race refers strictly to the numbering in the FAVOURITES PHENOMENONSystem. I have used the term “qualifying races 1 to 5, 1 to 7 and 1 to 9” as there will be races which you omit because the odds are too short, or because there are joint favourites and you don’t want to dutch. So for example, if the first 2 races of the day don’t qualify but the 3rd one does, then this is qualifying race 1 in the FAVOURITES PHENOMENONSystem, even though it is actually race 3 going across the card. Back-checking the results If you are not familiar with the fantastic website of Adrian Massey, then I highly recommend you check it out. 15 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
This is the easiest place to back-check the results of the Favourites PhenomenonSystem, and here’s how you do it. 1: Go to http://www.adrianmassey.com 2: Click on the link that says “Favourites Statistics”. This will take you to a page that says “Fate Of The Favourites” 3: Click on the link that says “Custom Report”. This opens a new window which says “Favourite Analysis” You will be presented with a table with 8 columns, which you can check and uncheck, depending on what you would like to include in your custom report. 4: You need to decide whether you want to include joint favourites or not. You do this by checking or un-checking the box in the “Joint/Co Favourites” column. 5: You then need to select the year you want to look at. It used to be possible to go back as far as the year 2000, but at the time of writing, you only have the option of going back to 2006. 6: Next you need to select the month. It is best to go month by month as you can only include up to 2000 results in each search. 7: Check the box that says “Use Estimated Betfair Odds” 8: In the box that says “max Number In Selections List”, set this to the maximum, which is presently 2000. 9: Click the “Go” button, and you’ll get a list of results. I have spent literally hundreds of hours doing this for you, but I wanted to give you the option of verifying the results for yourself. 16 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
Methods of placing bets You can use Betfair or your preferred bookmaker to place the bets for the FAVOURITES PHENOMENONSystem. Personally I use Betfair for the following reasons. 1: The odds are generally higher 2: You can bet in running should you miss the start of the race. 3: You can use software which makes placing the bets much faster. Do remember to take the 5% commission into account if using Betfair, or it will eat into your profits. Getting the results after a race I find that the Sporting Life website is consistently quicker at providing the results after each race, usually within a minute or so. Their website is at http://www.sportinglife.co.uk You can also find live commentary here, provided by Sports Live Radio. Be aware however, that if you are listening to the commentary over the internet, there is a time lag of about 30 seconds. I used to listen to the analysis and commentaries, and have learned a lot from this. I find however, that I can concentrate better if I just watch the numbers on the screen, but this is a personal choice. Final Thoughts As any good system should be, the Favourites PhenomenonSystem is remarkably simple and very consistent. Remember however, that we are dealing with the live market, and that there will be decisions you need to take which are dependent on circumstances. 17 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
I have put all my experience and knowledge into this short manual, and I want you to make this your own. Winning with the Favourites PhenomenonSystem is the easy part. The more challenging part is to stay disciplined, and not to try and win too much too quickly. Whether you are using level 1, 2 or 3, there will be losing days, and it is a question of keeping a distance, and remaining focused on the big picture.
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Published on Aug 12, 2011
T T h h e e F F a a v v o o u u r r i i t t e e s s P P h h e e n n o o m m e e n n o o n n S S y y s s t t e e m m B B Y Y X X P P E E R R...