Non-Handicap Draw Analysis
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Non-Handicap Draw Analysis It’s a well known fact that winners are easier to find in non-handicap races than in handicaps – the conditions of the former type of events usually favour just a handful of runners, whereas in a handicap race each runner is theoretically weighted to hold an equal chance to all of their rivals. If we look at the performances of all runners in non-handicap races over the last ten seasons, as can be expected the strike-rate drops as the SP lengthens…. SP WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% <1/2 892 1219 73.17 -49.64 -4.07 1/2 - <8/11 1004 1726 58.17 -126.87 -7.35 8/11 - <evens 1201 2255 53.26 -73.37 -3.25 evens - <5/4 942 2039 46.20 -91.50 -4.49 5/4 - <6/4 884 2126 41.58 -84.48 -3.97 6/4 - <7/4 969 2579 37.57 -100.73 -3.91 7/4 - <2/1 1007 2958 34.04 -144.81 -4.90 2/1 - <5/2 1721 5905 29.14 -538.46 -9.12 5/2 - <3/1 1554 5996 25.92 -388.00 -6.47 3/1 - <4/1 2515 11647 21.59 -921.23 -7.91 4/1 - <6/1 3415 21583 15.82 -2236.50 -10.36 6/1 - <8/1 1939 17489 11.09 -2873.50 -16.43 8/1 - <10/1 1114 13345 8.35 -2911.00 -21.81 10/1 - <12/1 842 12400 6.79 -2984.00 -24.06 12/1 - <16/1 998 21282 4.69 -7318.00 -34.39 3 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
16/1 - <20/1 453 12114 3.74 -4411.00 -36.41 20/1 - <24/1 385 15151 2.54 -7052.00 -46.54 24/1 - <33/1 271 13789 1.97 -6734.00 -48.84 33/1 - <50/1 278 22696 1.22 -12971.00 -57.15 50/1 and more 96 29785 0.32 -23801.00 -79.91 The LSP% is very similar in all SP groups from odds-on up to the 7/4 - <2/1 group, before shooting up dramatically as the SP’s increase. For this exercise we’ll concentrate solely on those horses which were returned with an SP of less than 2/1. An average strike-rate of 46.3% was returned for this SP group over the 10 year period studied. We can now analyse the stats of this SP group by sorting each racecourse into strike-rate order…. CATEGORY WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% Warwick 136 255 53.33 34.78 13.64 Chester 122 242 50.41 9.97 4.12 Lingfield (turf) 189 377 50.13 10.46 2.77 York 147 295 49.83 10.64 3.61 Pontefract 174 353 49.29 -11.02 -3.12 Ripon 160 326 49.08 -9.22 -2.83 Hamilton 186 382 48.69 -7.61 -1.99 Redcar 175 360 48.61 -23.46 -6.52 Beverley 221 455 48.57 -1.76 -0.39 Doncaster 216 450 48.00 8.12 1.80 Windsor 177 370 47.84 0.78 0.21 Leicester 204 428 47.66 -6.31 -1.47 Edinburgh (Musselburgh) 149 314 47.45 -12.82 -4.08 Chepstow 110 234 47.01 -0.37 -0.16 Salisbury 171 365 46.85 7.72 2.12 Goodwood 204 436 46.79 -12.38 -2.84 Catterick 154 330 46.67 -19.53 -5.92 Southwell (aw) 406 874 46.45 -19.53 -2.23 Bath 172 371 46.36 -17.44 -4.70 Carlisle 75 162 46.30 -16.11 -9.94 Brighton 206 447 46.09 -23.50 -5.26 4 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
Epsom 87 191 45.55 -6.61 -3.46 Newmarket (July) 189 415 45.54 -26.52 -6.39 Nottingham 202 447 45.19 -44.34 -9.92 Yarmouth 225 499 45.09 -41.65 -8.35 Wolverhampton (aw) 472 1048 45.04 -56.25 -5.37 Thirsk 154 344 44.77 -38.28 -11.13 Ayr 151 340 44.41 -43.20 -12.71 Haydock 185 417 44.36 -32.24 -7.73 Lingfield (aw) 454 1034 43.91 -78.25 -7.57 Kempton 135 310 43.55 -26.43 -8.53 Newcastle 165 380 43.42 -55.70 -14.66 Sandown 150 350 42.86 -38.63 -11.04 Newbury 155 362 42.82 -36.73 -10.15 Ascot 114 268 42.54 -18.25 -6.81 Folkestone 114 270 42.22 -25.21 -9.34 There is quite a percentage range between top and bottom strike-rates, with Warwick hitting 53.33% and Folkestone just 42.22%. Logically thinking, if the top tracks from the above table can produce a profit (albeit a small one) from blindly backing every nonhandicap runner sent off at less that 2/1, then surely adding a draw bias filter should produce a highly profitable method. Weâ€™ll start at the top and work our way down, looking at each course and how the results are affected by the draw. On the tracks with both a round and straight course, we have to separate these and analyse them individually, as the draw bias (if any) may be in complete contrast to one another. WARWICK CATEGORY WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% Warwick 136 255 53.33 34.78 13.64 A 53% strike-rate and a LSP% of +13.64 is incredible considering these runners were backed blindly, but these excellent results can be improved upon further by analysing the draw statsâ€Ś.
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CATEGORY WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% lowest quintile 31 50 62.00 13.82 27.64 low side quintile 36 57 63.16 20.82 36.53 central quintile 28 53 52.83 6.70 12.64 high side quintile 17 46 36.96 -8.31 -18.07 highest quintile 24 49 48.98 1.75 3.57 Clearly it is an advantage to be drawn low at Warwick, and simply by concentrating on the lowest 60% of the draw the already impressive results improve to the following…. CATEGORY WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% Warwick 95 160 59.38 41.34 25.84 At Warwick, back all runners in non-handicaps sent off at shorter than 2/1 which are drawn in the lowest 60% of the field. CHESTER CATEGORY WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% Chester 122 242 50.41 9.97 4.12 Chester is notorious for having a strong draw bias, with those drawn on the inner (low) usually holding a strong advantage at all distances. It therefore should come as no real surprise to find that the above stats can be improved upon significantly by using the draw to discard those runners disadvantaged by the tracks configuration…. CATEGORY WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% lowest quintile 20 29 68.97 13.31 45.90 low side quintile 32 56 57.14 13.11 23.41 central quintile 19 50 38.00 -11.55 -23.10 high side quintile 22 47 46.81 -1.91 -4.06 highest quintile 29 60 48.33 -2.99 -4.98 The lowest 40% of the draw is clearly favoured…
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CATEGORY WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% Chester 52 85 61.18 26.42 31.08 At Chester, back all runners in non-handicaps sent off at shorter than 2/1 which are drawn in the lowest 40% of the field. LINGFIELD (turf) CATEGORY WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% Lingfield (turf) 189 377 50.13 10.46 2.77 All races on the turf track at Lingfield at distances shorter than 1m take place on the straight course, with the high drawn runners up against the nearside running rail. On the round course it’s the lowest drawn horses which have the advantage of the rail. The straight course stats are as follows…. CATEGORY WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% lowest quintile 22 41 53.66 5.04 12.29 low side quintile 25 50 50.00 2.93 5.86 central quintile 33 54 61.11 11.13 20.61 high side quintile 27 51 52.94 6.92 13.57 highest quintile 43 83 51.81 2.82 3.40 No apparent draw bias, with every quintile profitable. The round course stats read…. CATEGORY WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% lowest quintile 5 13 38.46 -1.35 -10.38 low side quintile 10 28 35.71 -7.57 -27.04 central quintile 7 13 53.85 1.39 10.69 high side quintile 10 19 52.63 0.49 2.58 highest quintile 7 25 28.00 -11.34 -45.36 Disappointing stats, with only two of the quintiles making a profit. Sticking to the straight course only, a healthy profit can be made…..
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CATEGORY WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% Lingfield 150 279 53.76 28.84 10.34 On the turf at Lingfield, on the straight course back all runners in nonhandicaps sent off at shorter than 2/1. YORK CATEGORY WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% York 147 295 49.83 10.64 3.61 York’s 5f and 6f trips are run on the straight course, the 7f course is on an extension to the straight, while the longer distances take place on the round track. The straight course/extension stats are….. CATEGORY WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% lowest quintile 8 24 33.33 -8.21 -34.21 low side quintile 10 22 45.45 -0.95 -4.32 central quintile 9 28 32.14 -11.94 -42.64 high side quintile 16 29 55.17 4.32 14.90 highest quintile 25 41 60.98 12.46 30.39 The highest two quintiles (next to the running rail) clearly hold the advantage here. The round course stats read….. CATEGORY WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% lowest quintile 10 15 66.67 6.42 42.80 low side quintile 18 31 58.06 7.31 23.58 central quintile 14 31 45.16 0.06 0.19 high side quintile 22 37 59.46 9.44 25.51 highest quintile 15 37 40.54 -8.27 -22.35 Only the quintile drawn furthest away from the running rail produce a loss, the others perform exceptionally well. CATEGORY WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% York 105 184 57.07 40.01 21.74 8 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
At York, back all runners in non-handicaps sent off at shorter than 2/1 which are drawn in the highest 40% of the field on the straight course/extension (5f – 7f), and in the lowest 80% of the field on the round course. Following these rules from the four courses would have produced the following results over the last 10 seasons… WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% 402 708 56.78 136.61 19.30
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