Professional Soccer Gamblers “Betting Exchange” Secrets
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Professional Soccer Gamblers “Betting Exchange” Secrets In recent years we have seen a new betting opportunity arise through a new breed of web site called “betting exchanges.” These sites allow for “person to person” betting without a bookmaker being involved. Quite simply, you are able to accept bets on offer from other visitors who are either offering bets available to “back” to win or “lay” to lose. As a visitor to the Betting Exchange, you also have the power to offer your own bets at the stakes and prices of your choice.
Other visitors then have the option to “take” the bet that you offered or they might ask for their own bet.
Some visitors will want to bet that a certain outcome will happen, whilst another visitor will want to bet that it won’t. When these visitors get together their wager is “matched” and the betting exchange will hold on to both visitors stake money until the outcome is
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decided, then pay the winner from the losers account less a small commission of between 2 and 5 percent.
With the advent of the bookmaker, we now see visitors competing between each other to offer attractive bets for visitors resulting in one thing: Great value opportunities with prices available being so much better than regular bookmakers that its hard to see where their place will be in the future.
Remember, a regular bookmaker will have high overheads and they must always offer bets on all of the possible outcomes of an event. The individual however has the luxury of accepting and offering just the bets that they want, usually as a result of their own research or through the research of their preferred Soccer Tipster.
Just on the most basic level, you’ll find that if you wanted to back a certain team to win, you’ll get better odds at the betting exchange than you would at the bookmakers hence every time you win, you’ll now win more.
However, this report was created to show how the professionals are using the Betting Exchange sites to make profits that are virtually guaranteed and in some cases they are definitely guaranteed!
After you have visited these sites, you’ll be able to pick out your favourite and have the choice to simply stay with one or use a combination of betting exchanges to effectively work between them for extra profit opportunities. 4 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
Betting Exchange Facilities If you visit one of the betting exchanges mentioned, you’ll see that you can click on a variety of events and tournaments. With each Soccer Team you’ll find prices available to back the team in question or to lay it and the same goes for the draw options.
At this stage it’s probably best if you visit the sites yourself to get a feel for their layout and where their Soccer Teams are positioned plus their online tutorials for using the sites as they all come with easy user guides.
The power that you now have is the ability to bet that something won’t happen (lay) which until recently was the luxury of the bookmaker only.
All figures are written in the decimal format so if you are new to decimalised odds you can use the tables within this manual to convert between fractional and decimal.
Taking Advantage of Extra Value By now you’ll be aware of the extra value that the betting exchanges give us and the vast majority of users visit the betting exchanges just to “back” the Soccer team that they will feel will win at better odds than they could possibly hope for at their regular bookmaker.
If you are used to only using your local bookmaker for bets, now’s a good time to benefit from the better prices available. For example, you might want to back a team to win and the best odds available at your local bookie might be say around the 5/1 / 11/2 mark. 5 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
Checking the betting exchange websites you’ll more than likely find the same bet available at 8 or 8.5. That’s 7/1 and 15/2 marking substantial better value.
Betting On The Draw Going back to the Bookie Beating Soccer Course, you’ve seen how the professionals monitor results to develop a points system to show which teams are most likely to win lose or draw. Using the points system, you can see which teams have the same number of points and are, on paper, evenly matched. These are the teams that statistically, are most likely to draw.
Now, lets say that you’ve identified that Liverpool and Chelsea are two teams that are evenly matched and want to bet on a 1-1 draw. Traditionally the majority of punters would use a bookmaker to place this wager and settle for the odds given. At best they might shop around a few bookmakers before placing their wager.
The professionals however now take full advantage of what’s available through placing a selection of bets at the Betting Exchanges so that:
If you are correct and the match results in a 1-1 score, you win more than if you’d placed the wager at a bookmakers and: You cover all other likely draws so that whichever draw finally occurs, you make a profit. Here’s how: Betting On The Draw 6 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
Lets say you’ve checked with your bookmaker and they are offering a Liverpool / Chelsea draw at 11/2 which is 6.5 decimalised. However, you check with an exchange and find that the same bet is available at 15/2 or 8.5 decimalised. At the same time you see that all the draw options are available as follows:
0-0 16.5 8.5 2-2 20.00 70.00
By recognising the extra value available, you can cover all likely draw outcomes as follows to make a profit on all draws and a massive profit if you are correct with your 1-1 prediction as follows:
So, for a £118 stake you profit by £732 if your 1-1 prediction is correct which is still better than any bookmaker odds available. At the same time by placing smaller wagers 7 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
on the other draws, you can make a profit on the other draws as well. I staked a little more on the 2-2 outcome as this is the next most likely draw but you might want to stake a little less.
Remember, you will be using statistically the teams most evenly matched and hence this bet provides you with the power that you didnâ€™t have prior to the betting exchanges arriving without paying over the odds for it. Try it next time you want to bet on a draw. With a little practise you can create the exact bets that you want.
Football Betting Without The Risk An old favourite system of many experienced Soccer gamblers is to wait for the season to start and settle down before placing a series of wagers (to win the league) on the five or so teams dominating the league.
Lets say that you are certain that you can pick out the top five teams in the league where you feel that one is almost certain to end as the league winner.
Football Betting Without The Risk Continued Lets say you have the following odds available on these top teams:
9/1 at bookie A
8/1 at bookie B
7/1 at bookie A
13/2 at bookie A 8 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
5/1 at bookie B
If you convert the odds for each team into percentages (which also gives you your stake) you get the following stakes and profits when teams 1,2,3,4 or 5 win the league.
Team 1 at 9/1 = 10% so stake = 100
Team 2 at 8/1 = 11.11% stake = 111.10
Team 3 at 7/1 = 12.50% stake = 125.00
Team 4 at 13/2 = 13.33% stake = 133.30
Team 5 at 5/1 = 16.67% stake = 166.70
Total staked £636.10
Trading For Risk Free Soccer Bets The above staking shows an old way to cover all likely outcomes and is used by many professional Soccer Gamblers to make annual profits on the eventual league winners.
We can now go one step further. Here’s how:
With the introduction of the betting exchanges, we now have the ability to trade by betting for and against the same outcome of an event. If our calculations are correct we can guarantee a profit by trading during the duration of the bet.
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For example, let’s say that the Premier league or another division has turned into a two horse race. It could be that you’ve seen that Arsenal and Chelsea are pulling away from the rest of the table in one season and that Arsenal are leading the way.
When you check the odds on Arsenal to win at a betting exchange, you might see quite short odds of around 1.57 (4/7) and Chelsea at more tempting odds of around 3.25 (9/4).
At the same time, you notice that from the fixtures, Arsenal have a difficult month ahead of them whilst in contrast Chelsea have some relatively easy matches. So what do you do?
The answer is to back Chelsea whilst their odds are high. What we want is for Chelsea to then pull off the expected wins and hence their odds will shorten whilst Arsenals odds grow as they struggle during their tougher matches. It’s not unusual for two dominating teams to even switch odds completely during such times.
Look at how this transfers into profit:
August 1st back Chelsea £100 at 3.25 To Win Sep 1st back Arsenal £100 3.25 To Win
Result: Winning bet = £225 minus the losing bet of £100 = £125 profit (less £6.25 commission) leaves us with a nice risk free profit. 10 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
At this point you might be thinking that such bets are possible with regular bookmakers. Well this is true but the bookmakers over round and odds compilers make it so that creating a guaranteed profit situation for your self is an extremely difficult task. You can end up taking risks you shouldn’t.
With Betting Exchange websites you’ll find that the value in the odds allows for you to use your knowledge to trade in and out profitable bets like in the example above. You can also “ask” for the odds of your choice to see if another visitor will accept making “bookie to exchange” arbs very popular as you can always ask for a bet and the worst that can happen is that it does not get matched costing you nothing.
With the ratings systems and statistical advice given in the Bookie Beating Soccer Handbook, you’ll have the tools to make more powerful and informed decisions.
The Singles Bet Money Maker Occasionally we see bookmaker’s singles bets that stand out a little as being good value. This is due to bookmakers having to compile their odds early in the week so that they offer set prices on the Thursday when the coupons come out ready for Saturday’s matches.
Another example of a better value bet might come from what we call
“concessions” where the bookmakers offer a nice value bet with the aim of hooking in more regular users of their service.
We can’t bet the doubles or trebles at the exchanges but professionals are using a singles method (on good value bets) to guarantee a profit. 11 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
Now, when we see a singles bet that stands out with a good price you should try to “lay” the bet to lose at the exchange at a price below that of the bookmakers. If your bet is matched you can either back your bet at the bookmaker for a guaranteed profit or wait to see if you can reverse out of the bet at the exchange when the market settles down. The other option is to accept other people’s bets if the price is right although it’s more likely that you will need to offer your own.
To get in on these types of profits you need to get hold of and check your coupons as early as possible so that you can create your bets before the market falls in line.
Get in on the live action for guaranteed profits Betting “live” is a term used for placing wagers or asking for bets whilst the event is actually taking place.
Live action betting is exciting but it does however offers much more to the professional Soccer gambler as it provides another opportunity to bet risk free or take a guaranteed profit. Here’s how:
Lets say that you’ve used the information in this handbook (or a tipster) and your research shows that you’ve identified that you should place a wager on a home team win for team x at odds of 3.0
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This is your wager and if you follow a successful tipster or do your homework you should find that over time you’ll make a profit and your winning bets will pay for your losing bets and leave you with a profit. In this respect, you are placing your wager and letting it run its course.
However, with in action betting, if you know what you are doing you can place another wager at the betting exchange “in action” to take the risk away by laying the same team x to lose during live action.
If you back £50 on team x to win at 2/1 (3.0) you would be looking at winning £100. If you’ve done your research, during the match you should see your team go ahead and be winning at some point. Maybe it’s towards the end of the match and your team scores and is leading 1-0 and looking sure to win. It’s at this time when you can look to the betting exchange to see what you can “lay” the same team at to lose.
If you find that at this time you now have the option to lay at 1.05, you can place a tiny £2.50 “lay” bet that would protect your £50 original bet because laying at 1.05 is the same as backing at 21.0 so £2.50 multiplied by 21 = £52.50 less your £2.50 stake returns you your £50. So for just £2.50 out of your £100 winnings you will have “edged” your initial wager during live action and things can’t go wrong for you if team “y” suddenly scores a last minute equaliser.
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Not only this if you take it further and increase your “lay” stake you’ll see that you now have a guaranteed win bet regardless of the outcome. Try it out on paper now and see.
How you use this information is up to you. Some professionals make a habit of taking a guaranteed smaller profit as soon as one is available whilst others will let their bets run to their conclusion safe in the knowledge that their research will make them bigger gains in the long term rather than cutting them short by securing an arb.
I would say that if you have the chance to take a guaranteed reasonable profit, to take it as long as you are not selling yourself too short. On the bets that you don’t have the chance to trade out of for a risk free profit, these are the bets that sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. If you and/or your tipster have done your homework though, you should increase your profits further over time through covering your losing bets with your winning bets plus leaving you with increasing profits.
Knowing The Market and its behaviour As you can see from the above example, knowing how a match is most likely to pan out is key to making guaranteed risk free “trades” whether it be through placing one bet on one day and another a month later to level it out or whether you place a bet with a bookmaker on one day and then go to trade out of it the next day at the exchange.
This is where your research comes in which goes back to the statistics monitoring you have learned in the bookie beating soccer course. The more you do the more likely it is that you can become an experienced trader. Trying to trade without experience or 14 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
knowledge is too risky and if keeping records and playing with your calculator isn’t your thing, it’s probably best that you steer clear of live trading and stick with the other methods of professional soccer betting.
Backing and Laying We have seen how backing teams at the betting exchanges offer great value and you’ll see this when you compare the prices to your regular bookmaker. However we also have the ability to lay which means that we can bet on an outcome not happening.
What this means is that lets say you think a team is playing at home but you think that it won’t win. Before to bet on this you’d have to place one bet on the away team and one bet on the draw. Doing these two bets at the bookmaker would result in you paying the bookmakers over round twice which would wipe out any statistical advantage that you had. Over the long term, you’d lose. However, if the above example happens to you now, you can bet against the home team winning on an exchange without being penalised through an over round.
If you are backing, you want to back at the highest possible price whilst when you are laying you want to lay at the lowest possible price.
To quickly see the “back” and “lay” prices, we’ve placed a table below showing the back price on the left and its equivalent lay price on the right. Back and Lay Price Equivalents in Decimals as seen at Betting Exchanges 15 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
Back Price 100 98 96 94 92 90 88 86 84 82 80 78 76 74 72 70 68 66 64 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19.5 19 18.5
Lay Price 1.010 1.010 1.011 1.011 1.011 1.011 1.011 1.012 1.012 1.012 1.012 1.013 1.013 1.014 1.014 1.014 1.015 1.015 1.016 1.016 1.017 1.018 1.018 1.019 1.020 1.020 1.021 1.022 1.023 1.024 1.026 1.027 1.029 1.030 1.032 1.034 1.036 1.037 1.038 1.040 1.042 1.043 1.045 1.048 1.050 1.053 1.054 1.056 1.057
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Back Price 18 1.061 17 1.065 16 1.069 15 1.074 14 1.080 13 1.087 12 1.095 11 10.5 10 1.114 1.116 1.119 1.122 9 1.128 1.132 1.135 1.139 8 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 7 6.8 6.6 1.185 1.192 6 1.204 1.208 1.213 5.6 5.5 5.4 1.233 1.238 1.244 5 4.9 4.8
Lay Price 1.059 1.063 1.067 1.071 1.077 1.083 1.091 1.100 1.105 1.111
1.143 1.147 1.152 1.156 1.161 1.167 1.172 1.179
1.217 1.222 1.227
1.250 1.256 1.263
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Back Price 4.6 1.286 1.294 4.3 1.313 4.1 4 3.95 3.9 3.85 3.8 3.75 3.7 3.65 3.6 3.55 3.5 3.45 1.417 3.35 3.3 3.25 3.2 3.15 3.1 3 2.98 2.96 2.94 2.92 2.9 2.88 2.86 2.84 2.82 2.8 2.78 2.76 2.74 2.72 2.7 2.68 2.66 2.64 2.62 2.6 2.58 2.56 2.54
Lay Price 1.278
1.303 1.323 1.333 1.339 1.345 1.351 1.357 1.354 1.370 1.377 1.385 1.392 1.400 1.408 1.426 1.435 1.444 1.455 1.465 1.476 1.500 1.505 1.510 1.515 1.521 1.526 1.532 1.538 1.543 1.549 1.556 1.562 1.568 1.575 1.581 1.588 1.595 1.602 1.610 1.617 1.625 1.633 1.641 1.649
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Back Price 2.52 2.5 2.48 2.46 2.44 1.70 2.4 2.38 2.36 2.34 2.32 2.3 2.28 2.26 2.24 2.22 2.2 2.18 2.16 2.14 2.12 2.1 2.08 2.06 2.04 2.02 2 1.99 1.98 1.97 1.96 1.95 1.94 1.93 1.92 1.91 1.9 1.89 1.88 1.87 1.86 1.85 1.84 1.83 1.82 1.81 1.8 1.79 1.78
Lay Price 1.658 1.667 1.676 1.685 1.694 1.71 1.72 1.74 1.75 1.76 1.77 1.78 1.79 1.81 1.82 1.83 1.85 1.86 1.88 1.89 1.91 1.93 1.94 1.96 1.98 2.00 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.06 2.08 2.09 2.10 2.11 2.12 2.14 2.15 2.16 2.18 2.19 2.20 2.22 2.23 2.25 2.27 2.28
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Back Price 1.77 1.76 1.75 1.74 2.37 1.72 1.71 1.7 1.69 1.68 1.67 1.66 1.65 1.64 1.63 1.62 1.61 1.6 1.59 1.58 1.57 1.56 1.55 1.54 1.53 1.52 1.51 1.5 1.49 1.48 1.47 1.46 1.45 1.44 1.43 1.42 1.41 1.4 1.39 1.38 1.37 1.36 1.35 1.34 1.33 1.32 1.31 1.3 1.29
Lay Price 2.30 2.32 2.33 2.35 2.39 2.41 2.43 2.45 2.47 2.49 2.52 2.54 2.56 2.59 2.61 2.64 2.67 2.69 2.72 2.75 2.79 2.82 2.85 2.89 2.92 2.96 3.00 3.04 3.08 3.13 3.17 3.22 3.27 3.33 3.38 3.44 3.50 3.56 3.63 3.70 3.78 3.86 3.94 4.03 4.13 4.23 4.33 4.45
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Back Price 1.28 1.27 1.26 5.00 1.24 1.23 1.22 1.21 1.2 1.19 1.18 1.17 1.16 1.15 1.14 1.13 1.12 1.11 1.1 1.09 1.08 1.07 1.06 1.05 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.01
Lay Price 4.57 4.70 4.85 5.17 5.35 5.55 5.76 6.00 6.26 5.56 6.88 7.25 7.67 8.14 8.69 9.33 10.09 11.00 12.11 13.50 15.29 17.67 21.00 26.00 34.33 51.00 101.00
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