Handicap to Handicap System
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Handicap to Handicap System Here we are going to examine the statistics for horses which finish first, second or third in handicap races, to see how they perform on their subsequent runs. To try and concentrate on races with reliable form we’ll only include handicaps with at least 14 runners – this eliminates small field events which are often run at a false pace creating form which is often not repeated. We’ll also apply this rule to the subsequent races as quite often handicap form doesn’t carry through to non-handicaps, just as big field form doesn’t translate well to races with a small amount of runners. The table below shows the results of all next-time-out runs from horses which finished first, second or third in a handicap with 14 or more runners, as long as they reappeared in another handicap with at least 14 runners… YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% 2001 198 1671 11.85 -177.71 -10.63 2002 173 1570 11.02 -288.44 -18.37 2003 152 1361 11.17 -348.57 -25.61 2004 142 1215 11.69 -168.02 -13.83 2005 128 1117 11.46 -152.33 -13.64 If we break down these results into starting price bands, we can see that blindly backing all of the qualifiers which were sent off as SP fav on their next run would return a loss of just 1.18 LSP% from a total of 1569 bets…
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SP WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% Fav 347 1569 22.12 -18.57 -1.18 2nd fav 150 1147 13.08 -167.00 -14.56 3nd fav 87 935 9.30 -248.00 -26.52 4th fav 81 785 10.32 -30.00 -3.82 5th fav 32 563 5.68 -193.50 -34.37 6th fav 28 451 6.21 -125.00 -27.72 7th fav 23 368 6.25 -59.00 -16.03 8th fav+ 45 1116 4.03 -294.00 -26.61 To lose just 1.18% of total stakes from 1569 bets is a solid base to build on, so next we’ll examine the stats of the price bands of these favourites in their qualifying races…. SP WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% <7/2 68 264 25.76 -5.28 -2.00 4/1 to 15/2 111 553 20.07 -82.04 -14.84 8/1 to 15/1 111 515 21.55 +19.54 +3.79 16/1 to 28/1 50 197 25.38 +52.46 +26.63 33/1 and more 7 40 17.50 -3.25 -8.13
Very interesting that it’s the horses which were sent off at the bigger prices on their previous run perform better next time out than the horses which were sent off at short odds. I think this suggests that if a horse is relatively unfancied and runs a big race to finish in the first three in a big field handicap (14 runners or more) then the horse has run above expectations and is probably a little bit ahead of its handicap mark. Conversely, if a horse is fancied and finishes in the first three, it probably hasn’t run above expectations (just run to its current mark) and therefore is not ahead of the 4 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
handicapper. The final stats we’ll look at is the number of days the qualifying runners were off the track before their qualifying run…
DAYS OFF BEFORE LAST RUN WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% 1-7 days 25 112 22.32 +11.75 +10.49 8-15 days 35 179 19.55 -12.59 -7.03 16-31 days 56 231 24.24 +46.38 +20.08 32-47 days 24 71 33.80 +51.21 +72.13 48-79 days 12 43 27.91 +16.50 +38.37 80-111 days 4 13 30.77 +7.25 +55.77 112-223 days 9 75 12.00 -34.00 -45.33 >224 days 3 28 10.71 -17.75 -63.39
Apart from a small loss on the ‘8-15 days’ band, it clearly pays to avoid those qualifiers who had been off for at least 112 days before their qualifying run. This is probably because many horses which run a big race after a break are ‘rest-pattern’ types, who often need another rest before they run again – otherwise they bounce and can’t reproduce their good previous run. So if we add this final rule, we are left with the following results from the last five seasons…
YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% 2001 44 186 23.66 +31.83 +8.20 2002 30 131 22.90 +18.50 +5.01 2003 23 112 20.54 -10.17 -7.65 5 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
2004 27 113 23.89 +26.26 +23.24 2005 32 107 29.91 +54.08 +50.54 TOTAL 156 649 24.04 +120.50 +18.57 The rules are…. a) Horse must have last raced in a handicap of at least 14 runners, finishing first, second or third, at 8/1 or longer b) Horse must be running in a handicap of at least 14 runners c) Horse must be SP fav (including joint or co-fav) d) The horse must have been off the racecourse for no more than 111 days before its last run Results from 2004 Date Cse RcTyp Horse Position SP 22/02/05 LIA 4+H SENOR EDUARDO 3 4.5 28/03/05 WAR 3H BADDAM 3 2.5 02/04/05 KEM 3+H SEVEN NO TRUMPS 12 4.5 02/04/05 DON 4+H STREAM OF GOLD 1 5 13/04/05 BEV 4+H POLISH POWER 15 4.5 15/04/05 THI 3H KNOCK BRIDGE 2 3.5 25/04/05 WSR 3H DAVENPORT 1 4.5 06/05/05 NOT 3H OAKLEY ABSOLUTE 1 3.33 07/05/05 NMR 3+H KEW GREEN 1 4.5 09/05/05 WSR 3H RAWAABET 12 6 14/05/05 NOT 3+AMH SLING BACK 8 6 17/05/05 RED 3+H TELEPATHIC 10 4 20/05/05 GOO 3+AH ONE WAY TICKET 3 3 24/05/05 LIA 4+BH COMPTON ECLAIRE 3 4 24/05/05 LIN 3H RUMAN 1 2.75 25/05/05 NMR 3H ABIENTOT 8 3.5 26/05/05 AYR 3+H SHIFTY 14 1.88 30/05/05 SAN 4+H DESERT REIGN 4 4.5 03/06/05 THI 3+AH POLAR FORCE 4 4 04/06/05 EPS 4+H CROW WOOD 1 4.5 04/06/05 DON 3+H TOUGH LOVE 2 4 6 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
04/06/05 CHP 3+H SIR BLUEBIRD 12 4 06/06/05 PON 3+H KANGARILLA ROAD 6 2.5 07/06/05 SAL 3+H GOLDEN DIXIE 3 5 09/06/05 BRI 3+H CAYMAN BREEZE 1 5.5 09/06/05 BRI 3+H SAXON LIL 3 5.5 13/06/05 WSR 3+H HABANERO 1 5.5 13/06/05 WSR 3H SOUTH O'THE BORDER 3 5.5 13/06/05 WAR 3+H LISTEN TO REASON 5 3.33 15/06/05 YOR 3+H BALLAST 2 5.5 16/06/05 NBY 3+AH ATTORNEY 1 4 22/06/05 SAL 3FH COCONUT SQUEAK 1 4.5 25/06/05 LIA 3H DISOBEY 6 4 02/07/05 LEI 3FH MANIC 4 5 02/07/05 HAY 3+H WINTHORPE 7 6 02/07/05 CAR 4+MH ROUGE ET NOIR 1 4 04/07/05 BAT 3MH MASTER COBBLER 4 5 04/07/05 EDI 3H FOREHAND 11 2.75 04/07/05 WSR 3+H DORCHESTER 11 5 05/07/05 NMJ 3H STETCHWORTH PRINCE 4 5.5 08/07/05 CHE 3H FANTASY DEFENDER 11 5 08/07/05 CHP 3+H MOONLIGHT MAN 1 2.25 11/07/05 WSR 3+H DUNN DEAL 5 5 16/07/05 NBY 3+H ACE OF HEARTS 7 3.5 16/07/05 RIP 3+MH PREMIER PROSPECT 2 2 23/07/05 LIN 3+H LISTEN TO REASON 7 5 27/07/05 GOO 3+H AFRAD 1 5 27/07/05 GOO 4+H WANCHAI LAD 9 2.5 29/07/05 GOO 3+H SIERRA VISTA 5 3 29/07/05 NMJ 3+H POKER PLAYER 2 3.5 30/07/05 DON 3H BOWNESS 3 2 30/07/05 LIN 3+H PORTMEIRION 1 5.5 01/08/05 CAR 3H OUTRAGEOUS FLIRT 3 4 03/08/05 BRI 3+H BOUNDLESS PROSPECT 3 5 04/08/05 YAR 3+MH ROWANBERRY 1 3 04/08/05 BRI 3+SH TAIPAN TOMMY 10 5 7 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
06/08/05 LIN 3+H WILL THE TILL 9 6 06/08/05 LIN 3+H LABELLED WITH LOVE 1 3.5 11/08/05 CHP 3+AH SHORT CHANGE 8 2.25 11/08/05 CHP 3+H ELIDORE 1 5 12/08/05 FOL 3+FH KALLISTA'S PRIDE 1 2.5 12/08/05 CAT 3+H KALANI STAR 2 3.5 16/08/05 YOR 3+H BRIDGE LOAN 7 5.5 23/08/05 BRI 3+H KENSINGTON(I) 3 6 26/08/05 NCL 3+H PRESS EXPRESS 1 1.75 27/08/05 YOR 3+DBH IDEALISTIC 1 5 27/08/05 YOR 3+DBH TEDSTALE 11 5 27/08/05 YOR 3H TAX FREE 1 2.25 28/08/05 YAR 3+H CHARLIE TANGO 6 6 29/08/05 CHP 3+H GOT TO BE CASH 9 5 29/08/05 CHP 3+H BALLYBUNION 1 4 02/09/05 HAY 3+BH SILVERHAY 12 4.5 04/09/05 YOR 3+H NEON BLUE 1 3.5 05/09/05 NCL 3+H MUSIOTAL 9 6.5 08/09/05 BAT 3+H NIGHT STORM 1 4 11/09/05 GOO 3+AH DEEPER IN DEBT 1 4 12/09/05 RED 3+AH POLAR FORCE 1 6.5 16/09/05 AYR 3+H ICE PLANET 15 4 16/09/05 NOT 3+H INTAVAC BOY 8 5.5 17/09/05 WAR 3+H WILLHEGO 1 4 17/09/05 AYR 3+H OUT AFTER DARK 14 8 19/09/05 CAR 3H AZUREE 3 4.5 20/09/05 BEV 3+H LIZARAZU 5 3.33 24/09/05 HAY 3+H INCHNADAMPH 12 5.5 27/09/05 NOT 3+H SUMMER RECLUSE 2 5 30/09/05 NMR 3+H KING'S CAPRICE 8 5.5 30/09/05 NMR 3+H MOAYED 16 5.5 30/09/05 LIA 3H DIG DEEP 4 2.25 01/10/05 NMR 3+H BLUE MONDAY 1 5 01/10/05 NMR 3H SPEAR THISTLE 4 5.5 01/10/05 NMR 3H KARLU 10 5.5 8 SAMPLE FOR FURTHER REPRODUCTION OR DISTRIBUTION 2011. www.bettingsystemprofessional.com
03/10/05 PON 2H CHASE THE ACE 2 5 04/10/05 LEI 3+FH DANCE TO THE BLUES 1 5.5 05/10/05 NOT 3+H SECRETARY GENERAL 5 5 08/10/05 SAL 3+H HIGH BRAY 1 3.5 09/10/05 NCL 3+H EXTRA COVER 11 3.5 10/10/05 WSR 2H BOLD CROSS 2 5 11/10/05 LEI 34SH HOH BLEU DEE 8 5 14/10/05 NMR 3+H NOTNOWCATO 1 2.75 16/10/05 EDI 3+H PURE IMAGINATION 2 6.5 20/10/05 BRI 2H HEAVEN CAN WAIT 10 5 22/10/05 NBY 2H WOVOKA 8 4.5 29/10/05 NMR 3+H COMMANDO SCOTT 6 6 05/11/05 DON 3+AH GAME LAD 6 6.5 05/11/05 DON 3+AH WIGWAM WILLIE 15 6.5 12/11/05 LIA 3+H RAMSGILL 1 2.5 26/11/05 LIA 3+H PRIME POWERED 12 4
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