NEWSMAKERS Erica Chenoweth
Abbas Maleki
Calestous Juma
Paul Volcker
Former International Security Program research fellow Erica Chenoweth was named one of Foreign Policy’s “Top 100 FP Thinkers” for 2013 for her research on means of political change. Her dataset, Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes 2.0, is the first to provide quantative comparisons between violent and nonviolent uprisings.
Abbas Maleki, associate with the International Security Program and a professor at Sharif University of Technology in Tehran, was appointed deputy of international studies at the Center for Strategic Research, the Iranian think tank formerly helmed by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.
Calestous Juma, director of the Science, Technology, and Globalization Project, was named one of Standard Digital’s “Top 50 Kenyans” as well as Lo Spazio della Politica’s “Top Global Thinkers of 2013” for his pioneering work in researching technology for building agricultural infrastructure in Africa.
International Council Member and former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Paul Volcker received the Eliot L. Richardson Prize for Excellence in Public Service, an award given by National Academy of Public Administration. Volcker was most recently chairman of the Economic Recovery Advisory Board under President Obama.
Rosenbach Nominated for Key Administration Role President Barack Obama has nominated former Belfer Center Executive Director for Research Eric Rosenbach as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Homeland Defense in the Department of Defense. Rosenbach is currently the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Cyber Policy at the Department of Defense.
Vol. 38 No. 3 Winter 2013/14
Rosenbach’s principal duty in this position will be the overall supervision of Defense Department homeland defense activities, reporting to the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. In his statement regarding the pending nomination of Rosenbach and another nominee, President Obama said, “I am proud that such experienced and committed individuals have agreed to serve the American people in these important roles. I look forward to working with them in the months and years ahead.”
International Security is America’s leading journal of security affairs. It provides sophisticated analyses of contemporary security issues and discusses their conceptual and historical foundations. The journal is edited at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center and published quarterly by the MIT Press. Questions may be directed to IS@Harvard.edu.
The Structure of Success: How the Internal Distribution of Power Drives Armed Group Behavior and National Movement Effectiveness Peter Krause
When and why do national movements succeed? What explains variation in the use and effectiveness of political violence employed by nationalist groups? Analysis of seventeen campaigns involving sixteen groups within the Palestinian and Algerian national movements suggests that hegemonic movements with one significant group are most likely to succeed.
Primacy or World Order? The United States and China’s Rise —A Review Essay
Yuen Foong Khong
How should the United States respond to China’s rise? What are China’s strategic goals? What are the implications of U.S.-China strategic interactions for world order? This review essay examines the answers provided by three recent works—Aaron Friedberg’s A Contest for Supremacy, Hugh White’s The China Choice, and Yan Xuetong’s Ancient Chinese Political Thought, Modern Chinese Power.
Strong Armies, Slow Adaptation: Civil-Military Relations and the Diffusion of Military Power Burak Kadercan
Why did the great powers of Europe adapt to the so-called military revolution of the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries while the Ottoman Empire failed to do so? This puzzle is best explained by two factors: civil-military relations and historical timing. The Ottoman standing army was able to block reforms that it believed challenged its interests. Absent a similar challenge, European rulers motivated officers and military entrepreneurs to participate in military reforms.
Grounds for War: The Evolution of Territorial Conflict Dominic D.P. Johnson and Monica Duffy Toft
International relations theory has thus far failed to account for the recurrence and severity of territorial conflict, especially over land with little or no value. Evolutionary biology offers a unique explanation for this behavior. An examination of territoriality across the animal kingdom as well as evolutionary game theory that deals with territorial behavior generates novel predictions about when territorial conflict is likely to occur.
Expert Knowledge in Intelligence Assessments: Bird Flu and Bioterrorism
Kathleen M. Vogel
A study of the 2011 controversy surrounding publication of Ron Fouchier and Yoshihiro Kawaoka’s H5N1 avian influenza experiments reveals that U.S. intelligence analysts do not have adequate resources to evaluate dual-use scientific experiments, or to navigate the politics that characterize the use of technical expertise in biosecurity issues. Compiled by International Security staff
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