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Financial Year 2012 1H review Saturday 25th February


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私人客户股票交易

股票市场

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Agenda 讲座进程 Part 1 – FY 2012 Market Performance 2012财年市场表现  2012 H1 Share market performance 2012 上半个财年股票市场表现  Forward looking 2012 2012年展望  ASX Sector analysis ASX各板块分析  Stock Picker Must knows 股票挑选须知

Part 2 – Leverage your investment returns via Exchange Traded Options 通过交易所买卖期权获得投资回报  Call options 看涨期权  Protective Puts

保护性看跌期权


ASX: FY 2012 First Half Global Index performance 2012上半财年全球股指表现

1,600

7000

1,500

6500

SP 500

1,400

6000

1,300

5500

1,200

5000

1,100

4500

ASX

1,000

4000

900

3500

800

3000

700

2500

600

2000

Mar-07

Oct-07

May-08

Nov-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jul-10

Jan-11

Aug-11

Mar-12


Sector performances 各板块表现

12 Months Energy 能源

-17%

Materials 原材料

-22%

Industrials 工业

-8%

Consumer Discretionary 非必需消费品 -21% Consumer Staple 必需消费品

-8%

Health Care 保健

-12%

Financials 金融

-15%

Info Tech 信息科技

-18%

Telecom Services 电信服务

14%


Sector performances 各板块表现

12 Months

2012

Energy 能源

-17%

7%

Materials 原材料

-22%

7%

Industrials 工业

-8%

7%

Consumer Discretionary 非必需消费品 -21%

3%

Consumer Staple 必需消费品

-8%

-1%

Health Care 保健

-12%

-3%

Financials 金融

-15%

1%

Info Tech 信息科技

-18%

-1%

14%

2%

Telecom Services 电信服务


ASX Sector Analysis Winners ASX各板块分析 Reporting season highlights

1H 2012 results

 Consumer discretionary remains soft DJS *-11%, SFH -64%, JBH –9%, PBG -38% 非必需消费品板块疲软  Banking sector forecast remains challenging due to cost limited capital management activity within large cap resources ANZ+4.6%, NAB+3.8%, CBA+7%, WBC-3%

Below 32%

Above 36%

银行板块前景遭遇挑战  Domestic cyclical remain at risk to the strong AUD (ANZ, NVT, BSL) 本地周期性产业因强势澳元而面临风险  Expectations were low coming in to the reporting season (OST, JBH, PRU, BXB) 财报季利润预期下调

In line 32%

*2Q sales


Reporting Season Highlights 财报季重点关注

BEST

之前

之后

%

BBG

$1.79

$2.76

+54.19%

OST

$0.73

$0.95

+30.14%

IMD

$2.03

$2.44

+20.20%

ALS

$1.16

$1.35

+16.38%

TWO

$0.55

$0.47

-14.55%

ERA

$1.54

$1.32

-14.29%

AQP

$2.50

$2.17

-13.20%

PMP

$0.42

$0.37

-12.94%

Worst


Forward looking 2012 2012年展望

Why the Australian Share market is going higher this year  China GDP growth to remain strong 中国GDP继续强劲增长  Meaning funding support for the debt ridden areas of Europe from EU and IMF 欧盟和国际货币基金组织援助欧元区债务问题严重的国家  Sustainable recover in growth from our major trading partners 周边主要贸易伙伴国家实现可持续性发展  Domestic stocks remains undervalued 本地股票价值被低估  Record level of cash

41%

31%

28%

现金储备量达到记录高点  Rate Cutting Cycle 降息周期

BHP FMG LNC OSH WPL ALK RSG NCM STO BCI BLY PBG


ASX Sector Favourites ASX最值得关注板块

Financials 金融 ANZ, NAB, SUN, AMP

Industrials 工业 DCG, MIN, RCR, NWH, EHL

Materials 原材料 BHP, RIO, FMG, PDN, RSG, GBG

Consumer 消费 RFG, PBG, MYR, CRZ, WEB

Energy 能源 OSH, LNC, DYE

Tel Co & Information Technology 电信科技 TLS, SMX, CPU


Stock Picker Must Knows 股票挑选须知 Things to consider when picking your stock of choice 挑选股票所要考量的因素  Invest in companies, not just a stock 投资一家公司,而不是一支股票 − Strong Balance sheet, Strong Management, Strong Cashflow − 财务报表乐观,管理得当  Diversify your investments 多样化投资组合  Investor for Income or Growth 稳定型和增长型投资  Protect your investments Through Options 通过期权保护投资收益

Just because the share price is large, doesn’t mean it’s expensive 股票价格高,不代表股票价格“贵”


Opportunities in 2012 2012投资机会

Stocks offering “sustainable yields”

Stocks offering Higher “Growth”

提供稳定收益的股票

提供高增长的股票

Income

FY 12 Yield

Dividend$

Growth

FY 12 EPS %

Price Target

Up side to PT

1

TLS

8.40%

0.28

PDN

92%

3.00

68%

2

MYR

9.20%

0.19

LNC

74%

3.01

114%

3

APA

7.30%

0.35

PBG

-24.5

0.89

69%

4

ENV

7.70%

0.058

MIN

37%

17.05

35%

5

QBE

10.50%

0.87

DCG

-1%

3.50

73%

6

SGP

7.50%

0.237

GBG

98%

0.93

26%

7

TTS

8.70%

0.22

BLY

40%

4.90

36%

8

ANZ

6.60%

1.43

RSG

28%

3.26

36%

9

NAB

8.00%

1.85

NWH

91%

3.50

7%

10

WES

6.10%

1.8

OSH

-14%

7.40

12%


第二部分:从股票期权中获益


Exchange Traded Options 交易所买卖期权

Call options

看涨期权( + )

The right to BUY Stock for a certain price in the future without the Obligation to do so 买方拥有在未来以约定价格购买股票的权利, 而并非义务. Buyer

Put options

看跌期权( -)

Seller

The right to SELL Stock for a certain price in the future without the Obligation to do so买方拥有在未来以约定价格变卖股票的权利,而并 非义务 Buyer

Seller

 期权是金融杠杆产品,给予买方在一定时间段内或特定日期,以约定价格购买或变卖证券的权利。  针对特定上市公司股票  小资产投入,高杠杆投资回报  保护所持有股票组合的价值  熊市牛市皆可获益

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期权的组成部分

1

ANZ OCT11 $20.00 Call @ $0.50

1. 合同大小

1份合同=100单位相关股票

2. 相关证券

合同中所指的相关股票

3. 有效期

合同涵盖的有效时间

4. 目标价位

合同中约定的买进、卖出价格

5. 期权类型

看涨或看跌

6. 价格

期权合同中买方支付给卖方的费用

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看涨期权:低廉的看涨获益途径

第一天: ANZ股价=$20每股 投资者认为ANZ股价会在十月到期日时上涨$1 至$21每股 投资者的选择:  以现价$20每股购进1000股ANZ股票= $20,000  买入10份ANZ看涨期权 @ $0.40 = $400

股票

期权

$20,000

$400

ANZ 股价@ $21.00

$1,000

$600

ANZ 股价@ $19.00

-$1,000

-$400

5%

150%

1000股 花费

% 回报率


看跌期权:保护股价下跌可能造成的损失

第一天 BHP股价= $38.00 每股 投资者认为BHP股价会在10月到期日时下跌$1,至$37每股. 投资者的选择:  以现价$38每股卖出BHP股票  买入10份 BHP 看跌期权@ $0.60

股票

期权

$38,000

*$600

BHP 股价@ $37.00

$0

$400

BHP 股价 @ $39.00

-$1,000

-$600

0%

66%

1000股花费

% 回报率


Conclusion 总结 Macro Economic environment will remain challenging for 2012 but we remain selectively bullish on some sectors. 经济大环境将在2012年面临挑战,但我们仍然选择性看好一些板块

We prefer companies with operational leverage to the Industrial and Mining Services Sectors. 我们偏向工业和矿业板块

Falling demand for fix interest assets will boost demand for high dividend paying stocks 固定收益资产的需求下降可能推动高股息股票的需求

Options can be used to protect the value of investments in falling markets 在市场低迷时,期权可被用来保护投资组合

Utilize market research available to you to make an informed decision. 整合可获得的市场分析,帮助做出投资决定 17


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Xiaoming Huang 黄小茗 Client Adviser, Equities & Derivatives

Phone 03 8601 2088 Austock Securities Limited Level 12, 15 William Street Melbourne VIC 3000

www.austock.com

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Disclaimer

This presentation has been prepared solely for the information of the particular person to whom it was supplied by Austock Securities Limited (“Austock�). Austock and its associates within the meaning of Chapter 7 of the Corporations Act may hold securities in the companies referred to in this presentation. Austock believes that the advice and information herein is accurate and reliable, but no warranties of accuracy, reliability or completeness are given (except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded). No responsibility for any errors or omissions or any negligence is accepted by Austock or any of its directors, employees or agents.


2月25日投资峰会Austock演讲稿