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5

Rich&Risk

Çѹ·Õè 22 ¡ØÁÀҾѹ¸ 2553

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6

¶¹¹¹Ñ¡Å§·Ø¹

Çѹ·Õè 22 ¡ØÁÀҾѹ¸ 2553

“àÃ×Íè §ËŒ¹Ø ¼ÁäÁ‹à»š¹Ë‹Ç§ Áѹŧ䴌 Áѹ¡ç¢¹éÖ ä´Œ ¼Á¤Ô´Í‹ҧ¹Õàé ÊÁÍ·Ø¡Í‹ҧÁѹÁÕÃÒ¤Ò·Õàè ËÁÒÐÊÁáÅÐÂص¸Ô ÃÃÁ¢Í§Áѹ ·Ø¡¤ÃÑ§é ·ÕÁè ÇÕ ¡Ô ÄµÔ ¨Ð¶×Í໚¹âÍ¡ÒÊ ËŒ¹Ø ·Õäè Á‹¹Ò‹ ¨Ð¶Ù¡¼Å¡Ãзº¨Ò¡¡ÒÃàÁ×ͧ 䴌ᡋ ¡Å‹ÁØ ¤ŒÒ»ÅÕ¡ áÅиØáԨÍÒËÒà ¡Å‹ÁØ ·Õ¶è ¡Ù ¼Å¡Ãзº 䴌ᡋ ¡Å‹ÁØ ¾Åѧ§Ò¹ áÅи¹Ò¤ÒþҳԪ” ´Ã.¡ŒÍ§à¡ÕÂÃµÔ âÍÀÒÊǧ¡Òà »Ãиҹ¡ÃÃÁ¡ÒúÃÔËÒà ºÅ.àÍà«Õ ¾ÅÑÊ

¡ÅÂØ·¸¡ÒÃŧ·Ø¹ Private Equity    (Private Equity)    ! " #$%  + * #, G44*  +* $4:  { 4;G +  = =   $   & U&#    /$* B6  $ ,| #&+  8 & : M { 4;G   C:  & ! $/ *   $ ,|+ :  +& , +8#/$"$:  = $  <+* / /H$ B 8/<&+ & B $&=    +*/   << $  &$   6 +& <+ <  / */ =   4 +*#<&+ &   48  : } 6C #/HM   +* / &+  C   8/= * + +   M (High Networth Individual) +  <&+ & <   +*6 +*4 6 +& </=  +* = M  4    4 { 4;G   $& "+?#" ++! <#+ 2 !% "2 "+/ Leverage Buyout (;% "*"  "W !""% &   LBO) ?=  4   4! ?=  * 4+< < $ #:  

/ +, +8 ?=   /$*  >+ 4 4$   4 ,   /= 4! ?=  * 4 +  #:   / +B$& C  4    C   < $ &  +8 Leverage Buyout  "$#: /$ $: =   +*/ , +  +*< $ #$ +*   +/ # ?= 4  "$:#/$ $:466 +*,   /$* $:/=   , #$ 6B   4 + $ ?=   #$# 4   B6 $=  B$&/+  8 #$# ?=  4 46C= & !  $: = +<  $   86 4 +*  & ! Non-recourse Financing ? +8#/$4$ /<   C #/$ +*8  +* + /=  #$/< $ +*B Leverage Buyout + 8#/$"C$: = /$* /= "$: +*#<&+ & < $ " 8< B6&  $ =  4 #$+* $$ # $ ?=  4 

#/HM $&  $: =  +* B6< $  && * 4+? =  B$& +* $ 8 86/  6  C8>+ +? = ! &86 B+  & $:=  +*  $ ?= 4  <&+ & 46B   < B$&B     #& C 6 * 4+ !- /  /= &     "$#: /$ $: ,    &  : 6/&  60-90%    +  ?=    #/  6/& ~ 2000-2005  & $ :  +* #: & 59-67%  / & & +* #$+*   <C  # ?=  4  #/  ?=  4  $& $B:  Leverage Buyout  B  $#~ 1955 ,  $ ?=  4  BB B  (Pan Atlantic Steamship) B6 &  B (Waterman Steamship Corporation) , >+ B *  /  (Mclean Industries) #

 >+ B+8  $: = 48& 42 $ /HB6 /$* $ :  7 $ /H =  +8 $ ?=  4 +   /4 ?=   $ B$&  B6+   >+ &  B48& 20 $ /H< $C : 8 #$/ =

  Leverage Buyout +,  + * = $ ?=  4  , (RJR Nabisco) ,  +*   (KKR Private Equity) #~ 1989  # $ ?=  4 #  :C 3.1 /= $ /HC= & ! ?=    4 + : + * #, #& / * #  < $C : 8 $ !  #=   Barbarian at the Gate: The Falls of RJR Nabisco G44*C  #  6+'< $ +*    =  : : $ /=  +*C #/HM + #4+*# $ ?=  4  $& $:   #6+'<+ +  < #/$    +* >6 & <&+ & / = { 4;G B   #

C$ =  </+  +*#<++ = +/  /   6  +*   <+ 4 ,}/$ U!<< $

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       (             )  0.25% ! 0.75% "#$&'* + 19 .. 2553 , - / +46+8#/$   $:  ; : &6    & +"   < $   $:  =  '>#&

$ =  .. 53 ?,     66 (Fed Fund Rate)

 2. /$* DJIA , FTSE, DAX (*,)

   & , B   +8+'+ 

   $ =    &  B C  B        6 #  :       

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G44 #   & / " $&& K < $  ,   &   DJIA < $ 3. (Big Market Cap.) 

    

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 (GAP) 720 730 *, " ! "9# "$%   1 - 2 !% !: $ * ! "4 $%

 ( ;% $% +/) 

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8#/ B  Indicators (MACD, 14RSI, Modified Stochastic) 4 * 8 : !HH   B$& 66 B& $  700 705, 710 B6 720 - 730 4* / " 

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< < $  /$*     = C=   

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8 (Low) 556.11 4* B6 4* : (H) + 758.55 4* !  4* 4  =  5 B$&& 66C   (Fibonacci Retracement) 46< $ 38.2% = 682, 50% = 658 B6 61.8% = 634 4* 8  ? SET < $ &  B& 680 - 682 4*   B$&  &    C= & !B&+   7.SET 46

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</  &  * +:  33.17  +/

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