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August 30, 2013

GOSPORT GOSPORT

Ready, set –

HURRICANE

NAS Pensacola Emergency Managment Office 452-4481 Quarterdeck 452-4785 For on-base emergency: 452-3333 for fire and ambulance; 452-8888 for NASP police NAS Whiting Field Emergency Center 623-7333 Emergency Communication Center 623-7193 (business/non-emergency) Corry Station Quarterdeck 452-6618 NETPDTC Saufley Field Main Gate 452-1628

Florida Division of Emergency Management 413-9969 http://www.floridadisaster.org National Hurricane Center www.nhc.noaa.gov National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration www.noaa.gov

NFAAS: Navy Family Accountability and Assessment System https://navyfamily.navy.mil/cas/login

American Red Cross Northwest Florida http://www.redcross.org/fl/pensacola

Fleet Weather Center Norfolk http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/fwc-n

Escambia County Sheriff’s Office 436-9630 http://www.escambiaso.com

Ready Navy http://www.Ready.Navy.mil Air Force Be Ready http://www.beready.af.mil/

Santa Rosa County Sheriff’s Office 983-1100 http://www.santarosasheriff.org

Ready Army http://www.acsim.army.mil/readyarmy/

Emerald Coast Utilities Authority 476-0480 http://www.ecua.org

Federal Emergency Management Agency www.fema.gov (800) 621-FEMA (3362)

Pensacola Energy (natural gas) 435-1800 http://www.pensacolaenergy.com/

Be Ready Escambia: Escambia County Public Safety 471-6400 http://www.bereadyescambia.com/ Santa Rosa County Emergency Management 983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency/

Gulf Power (outages and service interruptions) 800-487-6937 http://www.gulfpower.com AT&T http://www.att.com

August 30, 2013

PA G E

NOAA update: 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook From http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov

NOAA’s updated 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook continues to call for an abovenormal season, with the possibility that the season could be very active. The outlook indicates a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 25 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5 percent chance for a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons, which have been slightly modified from previous years. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. As predicted in May, atmospheric and oceanic anomalies across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea (called the Main Development Region, MDR) are now conducive to an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. These conditions are expected to persist throughout the peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season in association with the tropical multi-decadal signal, which has contributed to the high activity era that began in 1995. This signal is linked to aboveaverage sea surface temperatures in the MDR and to an enhanced west African monsoon, both of which are now in place. The presence of two named storms in the deep tropical Atlantic during June-July reinforces the expectation for an above-normal season. Historically, years with early-season activity in this region have a high likelihood of being above-normal, with many also being very active (i.e., hyper-active).

A third factor for the season is the likely continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions. There is only a low probability (19 percent) that La Niña will develop and further enhance the activity, and an even lower probability (8 percent) that El Niño will develop and suppress the activity. Based on the current and expected conditions, combined with model forecasts, we estimate a 70 percent probability for each of the following ranges of activity for the entire 2013 Atlantic hurricane season: • 13 to19 named storms. • Six to nine hurricanes. • Three to five major hurricanes. • Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 120-190 percent of the median. The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70 percent of seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. The expected ranges are centered well above the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) 1981-2010 seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Activity to date: Six tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic basin to date, with Chantal and Dorian forming in the deep tropical Atlantic. Significant activity is expected for the remainder of the season, with an additional nine to 15 named storms likely, of which six to nine are expected to become hurricanes with three to five reaching major hurricane status.

“Enhanced activity (this year) means the more likely the chances are that a hurricane is going to make landfall this season. NASP personnel need to make sure you don’t let your guard down; stay prepared.” – NAS Pensacola Emergency Manager Burt Fenters For more, visit http://www.ready.navy.mil/

Changes from the pre-season outlook issued May 23: All of the predicted ranges of activity have been lowered and narrowed slightly from the May outlook. Three reasons for these changes to the ranges are: (1) No hurricanes or major hurricanes formed during June and July; (2) The probability of La Niña developing during August-October is now low; and (3) Many models now have more conservative predictions of hurricane activity. Hurricane landfalls: While NOAA does not make an official seasonal hurricane landfall outlook, the historical likelihood for multiple U.S. hurricane strikes, and for multiple hurricane strikes in the region around the Caribbean Sea, increases sharply for very active (or hyperactive) seasons (ACE more than 165 percent of median). However, regardless of the activity predicted in the seasonal outlook, it only takes one storm hitting an area to cause a disaster. Therefore, residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and nearcoastal regions are urged to prepare every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other, seasonal outlook. Predicting where and when hurricanes will strike is related to daily weather patterns, which are not reliably predictable weeks or months in advance. Therefore, it is currently not possible to accurately predict the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes at these extended ranges, or whether a particular locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season.

Storm names for 2013 Andrea Barr y Chantal Dorian Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Ingrid Jerr y Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

HURRICANE CATEGORIES TROPICAL STORM: Minor winds — 39-73 mph Category 1: Minimal winds — 74-95 mph Category 2: Moderate winds — 96-110 mph Category 3: Extensive winds — 111-130 mph Category 4: Extreme winds — 130-156 mph

NAS Pensacola

Category 5: Catastrophic winds — 156-plus mph

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Gosport - August 30, 2013  
Gosport - August 30, 2013  

Weekly newspaper for Naval Air Station Pensacola