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ARIZONA COMMUNITY COLLEGES

2012 OUTCOMES REPORT

ArizonaCommunityColleges.org


OUR VISION Arizona’s community colleges, through a collaborative effort with education, business and community partners, will significantly increase the number of Arizonans who achieve their postsecondary education and training goals, complete a degree or certificate, and/or transfer to a university.

b


GOALS

ACCESS, RETENTION, COMPLETION

ACCESS Success After Remediation

2-3

RETENTION Course Success Rates Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates

4-5

COMPLETION Degree/Certificate Completion Percent of Transfers

8-9

APPENDIX ACCESS Indicators RETENTION Indicators COMPLETION Indicators Indicators

6-7

10-11

12 13 14-15 12-15


OUR GOALS Access Retention Completion

6


INTRODUCTION In 2011, Arizona’s community colleges embarked

It is important to note that Arizona’s community

upon a long-term Strategic Vision to significantly

colleges differ significantly in terms of the

increase the number of Arizonans who achieve

populations served, education and training goals

their postsecondary education and training goals,

of learners, and institutional priorities (such as

complete a degree or certificate, and/or transfer to

transfer or workforce preparation). Comparing

a university. In order to measure progress toward

student progress and outcomes across districts

the three major goals outlined in the Strategic

can be an extremely useful precursor to the

Vision, the colleges have implemented a rigorous

sharing of best practices and successful

self-assessment and accountability process

program models across the state. However,

centered around the annual collection and

each district must be assessed in light of its

distribution of data related to 30 key indicators.

unique characteristics, goals, and priorities, and

Statewide data pertaining to these 30 indicators

most importantly, by its ability to demonstrate

can be found in the 2012 Strategic Vision Student

incremental improvements in student access,

Progress and Outcomes Report, and online at

retention, and completion over time.

www.arizonacommunitycolleges.org/outcomes. As 2012 was the first full year of Strategic Vision The 2012 Outcomes Report complements the 2012

data collection, the outcomes presented in this

Strategic Vision Student Progress and Outcomes

document should be considered a baseline

Report, and for five core metrics illustrates how

for comparison in future years, and will enable

each of Arizona’s 10 community college districts

Arizona’s community colleges to set reasonable

compares to the others. Statewide averages are

benchmarks for attainment related to core metrics.

noted in the text accompanying each metric, and an appendix provides comparison data for all 30 indicators. 1


ACCESS

SUCCESS AFTER REMEDIATION

0%

10%

20%

30%

50%

34%

AWC

34% 37%

41% 54% 74%

27%

MARICOPA

PIMA YAVAPAI

80%

55%

EAC

NPC

70%

16%

CCC

MOHAVE

60%

45%

29%

CAC COCHISE

40%

18%

48% 32%

17% 28% 27% 46% 37%

44%

Success after developmental math Success after developmental English/reading AWC Arizona Western College CAC Central Arizona College CCC Coconino Community College 2

EAC Eastern Arizona College NPC Northland Pioneer College


The figure on pg. 2, as well as those that appear on the following pages, illustrate student progress and outcomes data for Arizona Western College (AWC), Central Arizona College (CAC), Cochise College, Coconino Community College (CCC), Eastern Arizona College (EAC), the 10 colleges and two skills centers in the Maricopa Community College District (Maricopa), Mohave Community College, Northland Pioneer College (NPC), Pima Community College and Yavapai College. After six years, 28 percent of developmental-math learners in the Statewide 2005 New Student Cohort successfully completed a college-level course in math, and 47 percent of all developmental English or reading learners in the same cohort completed a college-level English course. While comparisons with national norms will not be possible until the Voluntary Framework of Accountability begins publishing national data for these and other indicators, a study conducted by scholars at Columbia University’s Community College Research Center 1 showed that 20 percent of community college students referred to developmental math – and 37 percent of community college students referred to developmental English/reading – completed a college-level course in the corresponding subject area within three years. These national success-after-remediation rates are somewhat lower than Arizona’s rates, but are likely comparable, as the national study was limited to three years, and as a significant percentage of Arizona’s developmental learners who complete college-level courses do so in years three through six.

1 Bailey,

T., Jeong, D. W., & Cho, S. W. (2010). Referral, enrollment, and completion in developmental education sequences in community colleges. Economics of Education Review, 29, 255–270 3


RETENTION

0%

COURSE SUCCESS RATES

20%

40%

60%

59%

AWC

80%

65%

50%

CAC

75% 71%

COCHISE

82% 76%

CCC

91%

69%

EAC

89% 66%

MARICOPA

73%

58%

MOHAVE

78% 65%

NPC

80%

61%

PIMA

74% 71%

YAVAPAI

78%

Developmental course success rate College-level course success rate AWC Arizona Western College CAC Central Arizona College CCC Coconino Community College 4

100%

EAC Eastern Arizona College NPC Northland Pioneer College


Over two years, 63 percent of student credit hours attempted in developmental courses by the Statewide 2009 New Student Cohort were successfully completed (with a grade of A, B, C or Pass). In that same time period, 74 percent of student credit hours attempted in college-level courses by the Statewide 2009 New Student Cohort were successfully completed (with a grade of A, B, C or Pass). Although national course success rates are not yet available, these indicators are aligned with those included in the American Association for Community Colleges’ Voluntary Framework of Accountability initiative, which will allow for comparisons with national norms in years to come.

5


RETENTION

FALL-TO-FALL RETENTION RATES

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

AWC

83%

CAC

69%

COCHISE

69%

CCC

65%

EAC

45%

MARICOPA MOHAVE NPC

80% 38% 43%

PIMA

83%

YAVAPAI

79%

AWC Arizona Western College CAC Central Arizona College CCC Coconino Community College

6

100%

EAC Eastern Arizona College NPC Northland Pioneer College


For this measure, a specific group of students called the “Credential-Seeking Cohort” was tracked; this group is defined as full- and part-time learners who earned at least 12 credit hours by the end of their second year. Tracking this sub-cohort aligns Arizona’s data collection and accountability strategies with those of national community college initiatives such as the Voluntary Framework of Accountability (VFA). Furthermore, analysis of retention outcomes within this sub-cohort provides a more accurate gauge of community college student success, as it takes into account learners’ diverse education and training goals. Statewide, 77 percent of learners in the 2009 Credential-Seeking Cohort (excluding those who successfully transferred and/or earned a degree or certificate) persisted at their district to the following fall. The statewide rate – as well as retention rates at 7 out of 10 of Arizona’s community college districts - are somewhat higher than a comparative national rate (52 percent), 2 as the national number is not limited to credential seekers. However, because the VFA is beginning to track and analyze retention among credential seeking sub-cohorts, more accurate national comparisons should be available in

2 NCHEMS.

(2009). Retention rates – First-time college freshmen returning their second year. Boulder, Colo.: Author.

7


COMPLETION

DEGREE/CERTIFICATE COMPLETION (GRADUATION) RATES

0%

20%

40%

AWC

33%

COCHISE

26% 10%

EAC

40%

MARICOPA

30%

MOHAVE NPC PIMA YAVAPAI

34% 18% 31% 29%

AWC Arizona Western College CAC Central Arizona College CCC Coconino Community College

8

80%

30%

CAC

CCC

60%

EAC Eastern Arizona College NPC Northland Pioneer College

100%


For this measure, a specific group of students called the “Credential-Seeking Cohort” was tracked; this group is defined as full- and part-time learners who earned at least 12 credit hours by the end of their second year. Tracking this sub-cohort aligns Arizona’s data collection and accountability strategies with those of national community college initiatives such as the Voluntary Framework of Accountability (VFA). Furthermore, analysis of graduation rates within this sub-cohort provides a more accurate gauge of community college student success, as it takes into account learners’ diverse education and training goals. After six years, 30 percent of the Statewide 2005 Credential-Seeking Cohort had completed a community college degree or certificate. Graduation rates vary significantly among Arizona’s 10 community college districts and correspond, in large part, to the percentage of learners at each district who transfer to a four-year university and/or gain employment prior to earning a degree or certificate. The statewide rate – as well as graduation rates at eight out of 10 of Arizona’s community college districts – are somewhat higher than a comparative national rate (25 percent), 3 as the national number is not limited to credential seekers. However, because the VFA is beginning to track and analyze completion among credential seeking sub-cohorts, more accurate national comparisons should be available in future years.

3 U.S.

Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. (2011). Digest of education statistics. Washington, D.C.: Author. 9


COMPLETION

0%

PERCENT OF TRANSFERS WITH AGEC AND/OR DEGREE

20%

40%

60%

AWC

80%

66%

CAC

75%

COCHISE

62%

CCC

46%

EAC

61%

MARICOPA MOHAVE

51% 45%

NPC

53%

PIMA

53%

YAVAPAI

57%

AWC Arizona Western College CAC Central Arizona College CCC Coconino Community College

10

EAC Eastern Arizona College NPC Northland Pioneer College

100%


Arizona’s tribal and public community colleges and universities have agreed upon a common structure for the Arizona General Education Curriculum (AGEC) in order to ensure the comparability and seamless transfer of general education credits across institutions. The AGEC is comprised of 35 – 37 credit hours of coursework that, upon completion, will transfer to all tribal or public community colleges, as well as the three state universities, and meet lower division, general education requirements. Although most community college students take courses included in the AGEC, some transfer prior to completing the full curriculum. While these “early transfers” are still viewed as successful completers, research shows that students who have completed a common general education core (such as the AGEC) and/or a degree prior to transfer are better prepared for upper-division work and earn bachelor’s degrees in less time and with fewer excess credits – both of which lead to cost savings for students and states.4 In order to improve the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of the transfer process in Arizona, the state’s community colleges are making a concerted effort to raise the proportion (currently 52 percent statewide) of in-state transfers who have earned an AGEC and/or degree prior to transfer.

4 Kisker,

C. B., Wagoner, R. L., & Cohen, A. M. (2010). Implementing statewide transfer and articulation reform: An analysis of transfer associate degrees in four states. Los Angeles: Center for the Study of Community Colleges.

11


APPENDIX: ACCESS INDICATORS 2012 STRATEGIC VISION STUDENT PROGRESS AND OUTCOMES DATA (BY DISTRICT) Statewide Average

National Average

AWC

CAC

Cochise

CCC

EAC

Maricopa

Mohave

NPC

Pima

Yavapai

1. 2010 – 11 full-time student equivalent (FTSE) enrollment

145,470

5,828

5,129

9,788

2,399

4,476

84,544

3,975

2,219

22,907

4,250

2a. Enrollment of underserved populations (underserved minorities)

34%

42%

5

62%

42%

48%

36%

32%

33%

20%

38%

40%

6%

2b. Enrollment of underserved populations (age 24+)

42%

40%

5

37%

52%

49%

42%

53%

41%

52%

70%

34%

56%

2c. Enrollment of underserved populations (Pell recipients)

32%

42%

5

56%

34%

34%

24%

24%

31%

49%

32%

34%

28%

3. Percent of 2010 – 11 student credit hours earned via alternative delivery methods and/or at alternative times or places

59%

12%

69%

89%

50%

31%

63%

62%

66%

49%

56%

4. Community college-going rate

46%

26%

6

50%

37%

32%

9%

24%

31%

36%

15%

45%

28%

6

Access Indicators

7

5. Overall college-going rate

51%

68%

6. Success after developmental math rate

28%

VFA

34%

29%

16%

37%

54%

27%

18%

17%

27%

37%

7. Success after developmental English/reading rate

47%

VFA

45%

55%

34%

41%

74%

48%

32%

28%

46%

44%

8. Cost of attendance as a percentage of Arizona (or county) median household income

15%

21%

15%

9%

19%

18%

15%

22%

19%

7%

11%

5

U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. (2011). Digest of Education Statistics. Washington, D.C.: Author.

6

U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2011). College enrollment and work activity of 2010 high school graduates. Washington, D.C.: Author.

7

Postsecondary Education Opportunity. (2011). Arizona College-Going Rate – 2008. Oskaloosa, Iowa: The Mortenson Seminar on Public Policy Analysis and Opportunity for Postsecondary Education.

12


APPENDIX: RETENTION INDICATORS 2012 STRATEGIC VISION STUDENT PROGRESS AND OUTCOMES DATA (BY DISTRICT, CONT.) Statewide Average

National Average

AWC

CAC

Cochise

CCC

EAC

Maricopa

Mohave

NPC

Pima

Yavapai

9. College-level course success rate

74%

VFA

65%

75%

82%

91%

89%

73%

78%

80%

74%

78%

10. Developmental course success rate

63%

VFA

59%

50%

71%

76%

69%

66%

58%

65%

61%

71%

11. Percent of first college-level math and English credit hours successfully completed

69%

68%8 79%

58%

51%

78%

82%

86%

69%

67%

81%

67%

71%

12a. Percent of full-time learners completing 42 credits by the end of the second academic year

45%

VFA

58%

41%

37%

42%

43%

45%

25%

38%

47%

43%

12b. Percent of full-time learners completing 24 credits by the end of the second academic year

51%

VFA

67%

53%

40%

52%

53%

51%

45%

40%

53%

53%

13. Fall-to-next-term retention rate

93%

VFA

96%

88%

92%

92%

89%

93%

88%

80%

95%

95%

77%

9

83%

69%

69%

65%

45%

80%

38%

43%

83%

79%

Retention Indicators

14. Fall-to-fall retension rate

52%

8

National Community College Benchmark Project. (2011). Report of national aggregate data. Overland Park, Kan.: Author.

9

NCHEMS. (2009). Retention rates – First-time college freshmen returning their second year. Boulder, Colo.: Author.

13


APPENDIX: COMPLETION INDICATORS 2012 STRATEGIC VISION STUDENT PROGRESS AND OUTCOMES DATA (BY DISTRICT, CONT.)

Completion Indicators 15. Percent of learners achieving their stated education or training goal 16. Number of degrees and certificates awarded in 2010 – 11

Statewide Average

National Average

AWC

CAC

Cochise

CCC

EAC

Maricopa

Mohave

NPC

Pima

Yavapai

This indicator is in development. It will be incorporated into the Strategic Vision once enough time has passed to link intention to completion data. 34,944

1,255

974

2,686

282

981

21,396

972

424

5,157

817

30%

33%

26%

10%

40%

30%

34%

18%

31%

29%

17. Graduation (degree/certificate completion) rate

30%

25%

18. Percent of learners who complete an AGEC within six years

16%

20%

6%

10%

10%

17%

15%

6%

4%

23%

23%

9,777

354

216

225

220

153

6,793

148

98

1,775

262

20. Percent of 2010-11 transfers with an AGEC and/or degree at time of transfer

52%

66%

75%

62%

46%

61%

51%

45%

53%

53%

57%

21. In-state university transfer rate (2004 – 05 cohort)

28%

25%

35%

16%

29%

20%

29%

13%

13%

28%

25%

22. Overall transfer rate (2004 – 05 cohort)

28%

25%

24%

26%

24%

35%

27%

28%

N/A

16%

29%

33%

23. Percent of learners acheiving a successful community college outcome

77%

VFA

96%

74%

64%

73%

72%

77%

74%

66%

84%

74%

19. Number of in-state university transfers in 2010 – 11

10

10

11

U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. (2011). Digest of Education Statistics. Washington, D.C.: Author.

11

Center for the Study of Community Colleges. (2002). National transfer rates are up! Results of the 2001 Transfer Assembly Project. Los Angeles, Calif.: Author.

14


APPENDIX: COMPLETION INDICATORS 2012 STRATEGIC VISION STUDENT PROGRESS AND OUTCOMES DATA (BY DISTRICT, CONT.) Statewide Average

National Average

AWC

CAC

Cochise

CCC

EAC

Maricopa

Mohave

NPC

Pima

Yavapai

24. Percent of 2007 – 08 transfers to Arizona public universities who earn a bachelor’s degree in 4 years

70%

67%

64%

71%

63%

56%

72%

61%

61%

70%

65%

25. Percent of 2007 – 08 transfers who earn a bachelor’s degree in four years

36%

53%

28%

47%

27%

44%

57%

35%

N/A

47%

66%

47%

Completion Indicators (cont.)

12

26. Percent of occupational program completers passing a licensure exam within one year

This indicator will be incorporated into the Strategic Vision once the VFA has finalized its corresponding metric, and as soon as all community college districts are able to obtain accurate licensure data.

27. Percent of occupational program completers either employed with a livable wage or enrolled in further education

This indicator will be incorporated into the Strategic Vision once the VFA has finalized its corresponding metric, and when adjustments have been made to account for a lower median household income in Ariona.

28. Percent of ABE/GED learners who enter employment

53%

61%

29. Percent of ABE/GED completers enrolled in postsecondary education or training

82%

44%

30a. Percent of adults in Arizona (or county) with some college and/or an associated degree

34%

30b. Percent of adults in Arizona (or county) with a bachelor’s degree

26%

12

13

74%

72%

94%

54%

N/A

44%

38%

68%

51%

58%

13

91%

87%

99%

50%

N/A

73%

88%

81%

87%

66%

28%

14

31%34%

37%

38%

32%

35%42%

33%

36%

30%36%

34%

39%

28%

14

9%13%

18%

21%

31%

13%15%

29%

12%

10%14%

30%

24%

Melguizo, T., & Dowd, A. C. (2009). Baccalaureate Success of Transfers and Rising four-year College Juniors. Teachers College Record, 111 (1), 55 – 89.

13

U.S. Department of Education, Office of Vocational and Adult Education. (2011). Adult Education and Family Literacy Act of 1998: Annual report to Congress 2006 – 07. Washington, D.C.: Author.

14

U.S. Bureau of the Census. (2010). Educational attainment: 2006-2010 American Community Survey five-year estimates. Washington, D.C.: Author.

15


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Arizona Community Colleges - 2012 Outcomes Report