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November 21 - 27, 2012

2 | NEWS

Euro zone aims for deal on Greek aid, debt reduction l

Last reforms, euro zone parliamentary approvals, needed for final OK, while payout not likely before Dec. 5

Euro zone finance ministers were discussing giving tentative approval to the next tranche of loans to Greece and seeking a way to cut the country’s huge debt on Tuesday, although no money is likely to be disbursed before December. Officials expect a “political endorsement in principle” on unfreezing loans to Athens, after Greece completed almost all the reforms that were required. “It is clear that Greece has delivered,” the chairman of the euro zone finance ministers, Jean-Claude Juncker, told reporters before the meeting. “We must still reach an understanding on several details and I would expect that the chances are good that we will come to a final and joint solution this evening. But I’m not entirely certain,” he said. EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said that the ministers would still need to tackle the issue of cutting Greek debt. “The Eurogroup will take the necessary decisions to ensure the debt sustainability of Greece,” he told reporters. “It’s essential that we will be able to decide on a set of credible measures on reducing the debt burden of Greece.” The euro zone and the IMF want to be sure that Greek debt, expected to be almost 190% of GDP next year, will fall at some point to a more sustainable 120%, so that they will not have to keep financing Athens. The IMF and the euro zone are at odds on whether to shift the original target date for Greece to do that from 2020 to 2022, torn between the need to retain market confidence and allowing the Greek economy some breathing space.


Rehn also said the euro zone should be ready to do more for Greece in the coming years to ensure Greek debt was sustainable

if the country stayed on track, in an apparent reference to the German Bundesbank’s idea of a reduction in official sector loans to Athens as a reward for diligent reform implementation. “It’s essential now that we take a decision on a set of credible measures on debt sustainability and, at the same time, we need to be ready to take further decisions in the light of future developments and of course, conditional and dependent on the full implementation of the reforms and the programme by Greece over the coming years,” Rehn said. He did not elaborate, but the idea of a haircut on official loans is now off the table because many countries, including Germany, see it as politically and legally impossible. French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici said a deal was at hand, but everybody would have to make concessions. “I have the impression that a political agreement is within reach and I think it is our duty. Everyone has to accept that they will have to go beyond their red lines,” Moscovici said. Greece got a second financing programme from the euro zone and the IMF in February, but two subsequent parliamentary elections and a deep depression threw its reforms and fiscal consolidation off course. Lending was frozen in June and to get it going again Greece had to show it was fully committed to a detailed package of economic reforms or “prior actions”. How to reduce debt in a country where the economy is expected to contract for a sixth year running in 2013 is one of the biggest challenges of the talks, which are based on a debt sustainability analysis prepared by the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the European Central Bank. Options include halving the interest on existing, bilateral loans to Greece from the current 150 basis points above financing costs, lengthening loan maturities, returning profits from the ECB’s Greek bond portfolio and a debt buy-back.

Germany has floated an idea that Greece could buy back half of its 60 bln euros in bonds remaining in private hands, offering 25 cents per euro. Euro zone officials have asked for a legal analysis of a debt buyback and a more operational description.


Once a deal is done, proposals on how to cut Greek debt and provide additional financing can be sent to national parliaments for approval, a step expected to be completed by November 30. This will give Athens time to complete the few outstanding “prior actions”. International lenders will check if the remaining reforms are in place on November 28 and euro zone finance ministers will make a final decision to pay the next tranche to Athens on December 3. Greece and the European Commission would then sign a revised memorandum of understanding on December 4 and Greece would get the money on December 5. Having missed two tranche payments because of the suspension of the programme, Greece should now get a total of 44 bln euros if the next tranche, due in December, is paid out together with the overdue ones. More than half of that total is cash to recapitalise Greek banks after Greece’s debt restructuring hurt their capital base. But some officials said incomplete data on the recapitalisation might result in the payout of 31 bln euros, rather than the full 44 bln. The ministers also had to decide how to finance two extra years, until 2016, they gave Greece to reach the target of a primary surplus that would allow the country to start cutting its debt pile in a sustainable way. The troika estimated that such an extension would entail almost 33 bln euros more in financing for Athens, which is politically difficult because of growing opposition to bailouts in many euro zone countries, notably Germany and Finland.

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German bond prices fell on Tuesday as growing speculation that euro zone finance ministers would agree to release aid to debtladen Greece reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Bunds rose earlier after France lost a second triple-A credit rating but, with the Moody’s downgrade of the euro zone’s second biggest economy widely expected, the move soon reversed as traders refocused on the Greek aid talks. “It doesn’t look like they (the ministers) are going to have an immediate long-term solution for Greece but there will be some deal to kick the can...(for) a quarter or two. So, some of the risk premia is being priced out of core markets,” a trader said. Bund futures shed 62 ticks to settle at 142.38, having broken below last week’s low of 142.83, while German 10-year yields rose 6 basis points to 1.42%. Cash 10-year yields were likely to rise to 1.50% in coming days if expectations on Greek aid are met, some traders and strategists said. “With the 10-year around 1.40%, we see yields backing up to around 1.50% but we still see the market well supported into year-end and

1.50% should present a buying opportunity,” David Schnautz, a strategist at Commerzbank, said. Euro zone officials have clashed with the IMF over how to ensure Greece’s finances are sustainable and whether to push back the target date for its debt to fall to 120% of output to 2022 from 2020. “The key thing is how to make the debt mountain of Greece sustainable, if they really agree on softer targets. That remains to be seen but there won’t be a near-term accident for Greece,” Schnautz said. Greek bond prices were marked higher across the strip. Portuguese bonds also rallied, albeit in thin volumes, on the prospect of further aid for Greece and after Lisbon’s international lenders said on Monday the country had passed the sixth quarterly review under its bailout programme . Portuguese 10-year yields fell as much as 33 bps on the day 8.21%, their lowest since late October. Among higher-rated euro zone debt, French bond yields rose after Moody’s cut the country’s rating to Aa1, citing an uncertain fiscal outlook and a deteriorating economy, and warned fresh downgrades could follow.

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November 21 - 27, 2012


Budget deficit heading for increase The budget deficit looks like it is on course to record a larger deficit than in 2011 according to the figures for January-September. The consolidated accounts (cash basis) show a deficit of EUR 582.3 mln in the first nine months of the year, compared with EUR 565.6 mln in the same period of 2010. If there is a similar gap for the whole year, the cash-basis budget deficit could rise to EUR 1.1 bln, or 6.2% of GDP in 2011, from 6% of GDP in 2011 according to Sapienta Economics

calculations. The accruals basis deficit will rise even higher, especially as the government has reportedly run up a lot of unpaid debts to suppliers. In 2011 the accruals basis deficit was 6.3% of GDP. Data just released for the third quarter give an indication of what has been going wrong. Revenue dropped in July-September 2012 by 3.6% to EUR 1,913.4 mln while expenditure rose by 2.5% to EUR 1,944.8 mln.

VAT revenues fell in the third quarter by 0.5% to EUR 395.4 mln. Clearly the 2 percentage point increase in VAT has not brought in the EUR 160 mln that the government had hoped for. Taxes on income and wealth dropped even more dramatically, by 15.1% to EUR 600.7 mln, no doubt as a result of rising unemployment and weak business profits. The only substantial increase was in revenue from the fairly small category of sales of


Recession moderates in Q3 Cyprus remained stuck in recession in the third quarter but recorded its mildest slump this year according to the Statistical Service’s flash estimate based on partial data. In July-September real GDP contracted in seasonally adjusted terms by 0.5% compared with the previous quarter, having dropped by 0.9% in the second quarter and 0.6% in the first. Cyprus has now recorded five straight quarters of quarter on quarter decline.

The milder slump is thanks to tourism and legal and accounting services, which according to the Statistical Service recorded growth in this period. Tourism arrivals rose over the year earlier by 4.1% in January-October while the legal and accounting professions appear to have benefited from a shift of business from Greece to Cyprus. By contrast, a whole range of sectors recorded a decline: construction, manufacturing, retail and wholesale

goods and services, which rose by 36.6% to EUR 146.8 mln. On the expenditure side interest payments shot up 59.9% as those who lend to the government demanded more for taking the risk of lending. Current transfers climbed by 18.9% to EUR 56.0 mln, perhaps reflecting payments to the EU for the Greek bailout. Social transfers, which include unemployment benefit, rose by 1.9% to EUR 641.2 mln.


trade, transport, public administration and recreational and cultural activities. Compared with the same period of the previous year real GDP declined in

seasonally adjusted terms by 2.3%, after a fall of 2.5% in the second quarter and 1.7% in the third quarter.

Tourism arrivals up 0.8% in October On the basis of the results of the Passengers’ Survey, arrivals of tourists rose by 0.8% to 261,997 in October 2012 compared with 259,863 in October 2011. An increase of 41.5% was recorded in tourist

arrivals from Russia (from 32,995 in October 2011 to 46,690 in October 2012), and 6.7% from Austria (from 3,318 to 3,539 this year). A fall of 5.4% was recorded from the United Kingdom (107,046 in October 2012 compared with

113,205 in October 2011). There was a 4.4% decrease from Sweden (12,037 compared with 12,591), a 14.3% decrease from Germany (18,998 compared with 22,179 last year) and a 3.2% decrease from

Greece (11,289 compared with 11,665 last year). For the period January - October 2012 arrivals of tourists rose by 4.1% over the year earlier to reach 2,326,116 compared with 2,234,011 in the corresponding period of 2011.

November 21 - 27, 2012


COLA, SIF remain thorns in Troika’s side l €1

bln from privatisations; Banks recap at €9-10 bln, says Pimco

Government officials and trade union leaders were burning the midnight oil trying to find a way out of the wide disagreements with the Troika inspectors on the state pension fund, the COLA automatic wage indexation, benefits and pay cuts in the public sector. The negotiators from the international lenders (European Commission, European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund) had been working intensively over the past few days and delayed their departure, initially planned for last Saturday, in order to convince the government that a lot of work was still needed to make any bailout repayment sustainable. Although an in-principle benchmark of “up to” 10 bln euros may have been concluded between Troika negotiators and the Central Bank of Cyprus as a bailout for the two main banks with an unmanageable exposure to Greek debt, further cuts are still warranted in public wages and the government’s biased contributions to civil servants’ pension funds, bonuses and benefits. Two meetings were held in parallel until late on Tuesday at the Ministries of Finance and Labour where in the first case the leadership of the civil servants’ trade union, Pasydy, were being briefed on the Troika’s unconditional demands, while at Labour and Social Insurance, private sector trade union reps and officials from the Employers Federation OEV and KEVE Chamber of Commerce were told of the “huge differences” on how to resolve the Social Insurance Fund’s viability. The government wants to reach a deadlock as a way to force the Troika delegation to back down on some of their demands, especially as we are only four months away from the next presidential elections and every happy or disgruntled vote counts. Already, President Christofias has on several occasions declared that he would not agree to the current form of the memorandum devised by the Troika, while Pambis Kyritsis, Akel MP and leader of the communist trade union PEOm said that the Troika “insists on the unacceptable positions” and that the union would consider public reaction and mobilization. Meanwhile, one of the Troika’s proposals, that the future revenues from oil and gas exploration be used to pay down the Cyprus bailout, was opposed by Nobel Economics prize winner Dr Christophoros Pissarides, who said that this would be wrong and should constitute a red line for the Cyprus government.

“Be clear on Russia,” says gov’t Government Spokesman Stephanos Stephanou has called on the EU to be clear not only about the objectives that Russia has but also about its own objectives, pointing out that everybody needs and benefits from a strong EU-Russia relationship. Stephanou was addressing a conference organised by the Center for European and International Affairs of the University of Nicosia in cooperation with the Russian Embassy in Cyprus on “EU-Russian Relations: the rhetoric and the record”. Stephanou noted that the events of recent years have changed the nature of the relationships in a number of ways and that the past ten years have seen the EU and Russia change and develop to a very great extent. “It is important to recognise these changes within Russia and the EU, since as the two partners evolve so does the balance of the partnership between them arguably and hopefully for the benefit of both,” he added. He also said that it is a fact that during the past few years the EU is experiencing an increasingly improved climate in its relations with Russia, boosted by marked progress in key areas such as the recent accession of Russia to the World Trade Organisation, the developments in the visa dialogue, crisis management, migration and climate change. “We are all aware that stable energy relations are also important for EU and Russia. Reliable and predictable energy relations are a clear win-win for both,” Stephanou said, pointing out that “the positive momentum achieved in other dossiers can serve as a precedent and pave the way for breakthroughs”. “The prospect of visa free travel could be used as leverage for progress in other areas and have tremendous catalytic effect on our overall relationship with Russia”.

However, he urged parliament to push through the bill to establish an energy wealth fund so as to ringfence any future income from oil and gas exploration and downstream sales.

President disagrees with Troika on quangos


President Demetris Christofias said he disagrees with the Troika (EC, ECB, IMF) on matters relating to semi-government organisations and natural gas. He said that it is critical that the state controls vital sectors such as natural gas, electricity, ports and telecommunications. “We all want a more effective state. It’s one thing to have a more effective state and another to have a practically non-existent state, which will leave citizens unprotected in a world where the weak survive with difficulty,” he said.

The Troika negotiators and the international lenders they represent have agreed on a key capital ratio for banks and a system for the sector’s supervision, officials had said over the weekend, signalling some progress in the talks. They agreed that both commercial banks and cooperatives would be overseen by the Central Bank, Finance Ministry and Central Bank officials said. Cooperatives were previously overseen by a separate authority. They also set a core Tier 1 ratio - a measure of financial strength - of 9% by the end of 2013 for banks, which could then rise to 10% in 2014. They had previously been discussing setting the ratio at 8%. The banks’ recapitalisation is estimated at 9-10 bln euros, according to global fund manager Pimco which has been hired to advise on restructuring the island’s ailing banking sector. Already, the state has bailed out Laiki Popular Bank to the tune of 1.79 bln euros and has taken a controlling 84% stake. Banking sector analysts expect Laiki to repay its debt by 2016 and the bank to return to the control of its shareholders.


The size of the national bailout - speculated to be anything between 11 and 16 bln euros and the bulk of it for banks - will be huge in proportion to the 17.9 bln euro economy, the third smallest in the euro zone. Earlier on Friday, the Troika officials had demanded deeper spending cuts in the public sector worth 1.2 bln euros, up from the previously sought spending cuts of 975 mln euros. Their demand for deeper cuts came as the statistics service said the public deficit rose to 3.2% of gross domestic product in the first nine months of the year, up 0.5 percentage points from the same period last year. Central bank governor Panicos Demetriades urged the state “to do everything possible to support the banking system”, in contrast to the Communist-led administration that has been

causing irreparable harm to the banking sector’s reputation by embarking on a witch hunt. The Troika wants to axe payment of the 13th monthly salary to civil servants in 2013, privatisation of semi-governmental organisations within a clear timeframe and freezing the COLA wage hikes and halving it when they are unfrozen. About 1 bln euros may be raised from the privatisation of state-owned assets, but unions and political groups have opposed any sell-off of the profitable utilities, such as telco Cyta and power generator EAC. As regards the near-bankrupt Social Insurance Fund, the Troika has warned the government to stop contributing its share in the case of civil servants in order to ensure the viability of the national pension fund and to make it self-sufficient. In that context, raising the retirement age to 65 now seems unavoidable, with militant trade unions backing down on this issue. But the health services also needs major reforms with the Troika representatives urging all social partners to speed up the much-delayed National Health System that would relieve some of the burden from the state-run medical services, where access is a privilege enjoyed only by low-income workers and all public servants, regardless of their household income.

Entrepreneurship Ecosystem: Taking a Cyprus IPO to NASDAQ With the Cyprus economy facing its deepest crisis since 1974 and youth unemployment over 25%, a new study examining the current situation and carving a roadmap to organic growth has been released that drives what can be done in the next eight years to take a Cypriot start-up to an IPO and ring the opening bell at NASDAQ. The study, titled “Cyprus Entrepreneurship Ecosystem: A roadmap to growth”, was compiled by economist and entrepreneur Marina Theodotou of the economic intelligence consultancy Curveball Ltd., and sponsored by KPMG and Cyproman Services. It tackles the challenges, highlights the opportunities and drafts a roadmap to nurture the entrepreneurship Ecosystem in Cyprus. In particular, the study defines and highlights the key stakeholders and drivers of entrepreneurship ecosystems and venture capital (VC) activity, identifies key best practices from the peer country group (Denmark, Estonia, Ireland and Israel) including specific tax incentives for angel investors and startups to foster the entrepreneurship ecosystem in Cyprus in line with the EU Single Market Act and EU2020 goals. “The study is the first important step in assessing the current situation of entrepreneurial activity in Cyprus and we hope it becomes a catalyst to innovative thinking outside the barriers of our small country”, said Christophoros Anayiotos, Head of Transactions & Restructuring Advisory Services at KPMG Cyprus. Speaking about the findings of the study, its author, Marina Theodotou explained: “There are several key components of an entrepreneurial ecosystem including the legal and regulatory framework, culture, finance, human capital, voice of the industry and access to customers and markets. Cyprus currently

trails behind in several components but also has many ingredients that can be leveraged into significant opportunities to increase risk appetite, spur innovation, provide access to finance through venture capital and private equity funds and articulate success stories that resonate with key opinion leaders, angel investors and venture capitalists locally and globally”. An entrepreneurship ecosystem can help close this gap by fostering innovation, start-ups, access to new customers and markets and job creation. Despite all odds and amidst the dire financial crisis, there are signs of nascent grass roots entrepreneurial activity with disruptive innovation tech startups, hackathons, meet-ups and a start-up accelerator, all of which are sprouting fast in Cyprus. “Undeniably, a country’s future hinges on its ability to nurture its most valuable resource: its people” stated Costas Christophorou, General Manager of Cyproman Services. In order to work however, all of these initiatives need support including mentoring, funding and a supportive legal framework and a strong voice of the industry.

November 21 - 27, 2012


When Berlin is the capital of Cyprus Will Berlin be the new capital of Euro zone? Let’s be frank. Berlin is already the de facto capital of the new Europe, including Cyprus. Watching our aging, overweight politicians taking their orders from the brash young Troikans, you almost feel sorry for them. Of course, they deserve it. Our political masters have made such a mess of the economy that we might be forgiven for thinking that any change might be an improvement. Do they, the Troikans, really know better? They are here to implement Germany’s austerity formula for the economic crisis. Many of their recommendations – reducing the public sector, elimination of COLA, privatisation, etc. – represent changes for the better, bringing Cyprus into the real world. But are these decisions considered in their totality leading toward a better future? It would be the cruelest blow of all if, having bowed to their demands, the result at the end of day saw us even worse off. This disastrous development is not idle speculation. Judging by some of the results these policies have produced, there is a strong basis for doubt as to the competence and economic strategy of the newcomers.

As the so-called peripheral countries in the Euro zone have sunk into debt, they have become dependent on bailouts (loans from other member countries). Their ability to make their own decisions has been ceded to foreign bodies in exchange for loans. These lenders understandably require some assurance that they will see their loans returned. Hence, the onerous con-

A Question of Sovereignty

The smaller countries in the Euro zone are particularly at risk from this loss of sovereignty. It has been clear from the early days of the Euro zone that the larger countries (mostly Germany and France) were the key decision makers. The voice of the smaller countries is rarely heard at the frequent meetings of the European leaders. Nor is this likely to change. Indeed, the change that appears most likely is in the opposite direction. The move is toward more centralisation. “More Europe” is the new direction now favoured by the key decision makers. This clearly points toward an increasing degree of centralised coordination.

There is also the awkward question of sovereignty. What has happened to the government that was elected by the Cypriot people and which until a short time ago was the only authority responsible for such decisions? Many of the countries visited by the Troika, not least this one, have fought for their sovereignty. Somehow, this has slowly changed to the situation we see today, an elected government following orders effectively dictated by others. We all know why this is.

By Dr. Jim Leontiades Cyprus International Institute of Management ditions imposed by the bailout agreements and the necessity of countries in debt to accept conditions they may not agree with.

A Voice for the Smaller Countries?

Is Der Spiegel right? An article in Germany’s Der Spiegel the other week said that the bailout which Cyprus is currently negotiating with the troika (European Commission, European Central Bank and IMF) “might mainly benefit Russian oligarchs who have parked illegal money in bank accounts in Cyprus.” It added that “Russian deposits there total $26 billion” and claims to have got its information from the German intelligence services.

By Fiona Mullen Director, Sapienta Economics Ltd There are plenty of political reasons why this report came out when it did—upcoming German elections, an opportunity to squeeze Cyprus on a tax system that sees German shipping and transport companies preferring to base themselves in Cyprus rather than in Germany, and perhaps an old bias not exclusive to Germany that assumes all Russians are crooks. But the article also started with a glaring inaccuracy. The figure of $26 billion represents the entire non-resident deposit base of Cyprus, not just that held by Russians. As of August 2012 deposits of non euro area non-residents

More centralised control is very likely to be reinforced by a change in the present voting structure of “one country one vote”. A recent article in the Financial Times points out that “It is naïve to expect the Germans to tolerate governance arrangements that combine high potential taxation without commensurate representation.” In other words, the Euro zone is bound to move toward a system of weighted voting, giving the larger countries an even greater “weight” in decision making. This, together with the trend toward centralisation of power, does not bode well for countries such as Cyprus. A more centralised Europe is unlikely to ignore what it considers to be anomalies between the member states on subjects like taxation, subsidies, nationalised industries, investment incentives, etc.

Centralisation and Taxation A centralised economic system is bound to consider such differences as “distortions” which are disruptive and unwarranted. Why should some people and some companies pay different taxes within the same economic zone? We have already had a taste of this thinking in the Troika’s comments as regards our low corporate tax. Whatever the decision on this in the current negotiations, the issue will not go away. Proposals for more uniform taxation at all levels are bound to be a recurring theme of a more centralised Europe. The Euro zone is essentially a financial institution. Germany as the major financial power will continue to have the major say. In the future, the smaller peripheral countries are likely to continue to be “peripheral” not only geographically but also in terms of decision making.


amounted to EUR 21.0 bln, or around $26.8 bln at today’s exchange rate. This is where Der Spiegel, or the secret services, must have got the “$26 bln” figure from. But not all of this deposit base is Russian. According to my reliable source, who unfortunately does not want to be identified, 40% of this non-resident deposit base is Russian, equivalent to around EUR 8.4 bln or $10.7 bln on deposit. So Russian money accounts for just under 12% of the total deposit base of EUR 70.7 bln. By contrast, the domestic deposit base of Cyprus is a much larger EUR 43.4 bln. Add the EUR 6.3 bln deposits by other euro area residents and the eurozone accounts for 70% of the deposit base of Cyprus. How much of the money in Cyprus had been laundered? The truth is I haven’t a clue, which is why I can never answer diplomats’ or foreign journalists’ questions about it. All I know is that Cyprus had a very bad reputation in the 1990s but cleaned up its act enough to get onto the OECD White List in April 2009. This is why I hope that the secret services report is actually published and discussed openly in the German parliament as some have demanded. Then we can see if there is any documentary substance to the accusations, or if it is based on a few coffees between diplomats and locally based individuals with an axe to grind. But the greatest lesson we can learn from Der Spiegel is that the sins of the fathers will continue to be visited on the children for some time yet.

Total population By major group Cypriots Non-Cypriots Not stated EU citizens (EU 15 in 2001) By major country Greece United Kingdom Romania Bulgaria Philippines Russia Sri Lanka Vietnam Syria India Poland Ukraine Georgia Germany

2001 census 689 565

2011 census 840 407

% change 2011/2001 21.9%

Absolute change 150 842

624 755 64 116 694 32 214

667 398 170 383 2 626 106 270

6.8% 165.7% 278.4% 229.9%

42 643 106 267 1 932 74 056

17 459 11 871 1 778 2 411 3 245 4 952 4 939 n/a 1 436 131 158 1 259 984 803

29 321 24 046 23 706 18 536 9 413 8 164 7 269 7 028 3 054 2 933 2 859 2 742 2 093 1 109

67.9% 102.6% 1233.3% 668.8% 190.1% 64.9% 47.2% 112.7% 2138.9% 1709.5% 117.8% 112.7% 38.1%

11 862 12 175 21 928 16 125 6 168 3 212 2 330 1 618 2 802 2 701 1 483 1 109 306

Source: Statistical Service, 2011 census.

It doesn’t matter that there are 27,000 Russian citizens in the UK and only 8,164 in Cyprus according to the latest census. It doesn’t matter that Spain is offering residency (meaning eventual EU citizenship) to Chinese investors for EUR 160,000. The rest of the world still thinks that Cyprus is crawling with men in big coats and metal suitcases. So we need to keep raising our standards to ensure that this image is consigned once and for all to the history books.

ERPIC award for Amb Papadopoulos Andrestinos Papadopoulos, Ambassador a.h., received a special achievement award for his contribution to the development of the European Rim Policy and Investment Council (ERPIC), an independent non-partisan, non-profit group dedicated to the study of political and economic issues affecting Cyprus and its surrounding

region. The award was presented by Christodoulos Pelaghias, a fellow founder of ERPIC, during a luncheon held at the Hilton Cyprus and attended by diplomats, business leaders and opinion makers, where Amb. Papadopoulos elaborated on the econopolitical subject, “The Case for an Eastern Mediterranean Energy Corridor”.

November 21 - 27, 2012


If only we had Monti… EDITORIAL He came, he saw and he conquered. At least some 2 bln euros worth of investments that Qatar’s wealth fund will pump into Italy, thanks to “interim” prime minister Mario Monti’s visit to the Gulf area. Italy has now joined a growing list of European states looking to tap the oil-and-gas-rich emirate’s vast wealth to support national industries that are struggling to finance their way out of recession. The Qataris’ interest focused mainly on the food, fashion and luxury goods sectors, as well as furniture and design, tourism and leisure, while half the investment by state-owned Qatar Holding will be pumped into the crucial small and medium-sized enterprises in the form of sovereign bonds and

affordable financing. Perhaps Monti’s biggest achievement is that he took the matter a step further by offering political reassurances and saying that the next government after March 2013 will be responsible to see these investments through. Next to visit Doha is Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras who will be in Qatar to discuss the prospects of new investments in public companies, the privatisation of state assets such as the state lottery and the natural gas company, DEPA, as well as equity stakes in some of the biggest banks and cooperation with the likes of Aegean Airlines and steel producer Halyvourgiki. Qatar Holding is already a bidder in the sale of Hellenikon, the 620-hectare prime real estate project in Athens that used to house the capital’s main airport, and has already invested some 1.2 bln euros in a gold mining

operation in northern Greece. Meanwhile, in sunny Cyprus, the incumbent president is only concerned with concluding the best possible deals with the oil and gas majors for the offshore exploration blocks, with the hope of clinching some form of advance payment to satisfy the civil servants’ union over pay prior to the elections in February. The mega property deal in Nicosia has flopped because we could not secure the right deal with the Qatari investors, which also put the Emir and his people off any further participation in infrastructure projects, whether in the energy or leisure sectors. Instead, presidential candidates keep on bickering among themselves over who is perceived to be the saviour of the Cyprus people and the bankrupt economy. Another opportunity lost…

European personalities urge EU leaders to back Erasmus More than 100 European personalities from the worlds of education, art, literature, economics, philosophy and sport have signed an open letter to EU Heads of State and Government in support of the Erasmus student exchange programme, currently under threat. The signatories come from every EU member state and include the Spanish film director Pedro Almodovar, the president of FC Barcelona Sandro Rosell, Nobel Prize winner Professor Christopher Pissarides and several Olympic champions. They are responding to concerns that student places on the scheme, as well as grants, may have to be severely reduced due to wrangling over the 2012 and 2013 EU budgets. The programme already faces a 90 mln euro shortfall this year and it is feared the situation will worsen in 2013. Over the past 25 years, Erasmus has enabled nearly 3 mln young Europeans to study abroad. More recently, it has also supported job placements in companies abroad. A whole generation has learned what it means to live and work alongside people from another culture, and to develop the skills and versatility which are vital for the modern labour market. The letter warns that unless the 2012 and 2013 EU budgets are sufficient to meet pledges already made to students on the basis of previously agreed commitments, “thousands could miss out on a potentially life-changing experience”. The threat to the programme could not come at a worse time for Europe’s young people. Youth unemployment among 15 to 24-year-olds has increased by half since the start of the crisis and, today, one in five young Europeans – more than 5 mln – is without a job. The letter calls for investment in education and training to be at the heart of Europe’s response to the crisis. It also highlights the Commission’s plans to increase opportunities for young people to boost their skills and employability under the new ‘Erasmus for All’ programme, due for launch in 2014.

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The letter concludes: “Erasmus for All will cost less than 2% of the total EU budget. In the coming weeks, you, the EU’s government leaders, will have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to endorse the new programme and give it the resources it needs. Our youngsters deserve it. Our future depends on it.” Androulla Vassiliou, European Commissioner for Education, Culture, Multilingualism and Youth, welcomed the publication of the letter: “The Erasmus programme has been changing lives and opening minds for 25 years. Long may that continue! Young people have had to bear the brunt of the crisis. They need our support more than ever now. I am proud and moved that so many people, from different walks of life, have come forward to declare their support for Erasmus.”

ETEK supports development at the Limassol Old Port The Cyprus Scientific and Technical Chamber (ETEK) has been watching with concern the on-going public debate and the reactions expressed in relation to the design and the implementation of the Limassol Old Port renewal by the Cyprus Ports Authority. The assignment of the architectural design for the redevelopment was the result of the first prize within the context of a 2-phase architectural competition, which was completed with the announcement of the results and the public presentation of the award-winning design of the second phase of the competition in 2004. According to the data that the Chamber has in its disposal, the modifications made to the plans of the awarded study, the intensity and the nature of the development have not been substantially changed in connection with the provisions of the architectural competition. Therefore, ETEK considers the reactions motivated by a disagreement with the tender conditions to be of deferred character and does not share the approaches tending towards stigmatizing or demonizing the entire project and its contributors. However and despite the fact that many of the subsequent changes made also aimed towards addressing specific reactions that occurred, the Chamber cannot but emphasize that the Evaluation Committee’s approval should also have been procured following the completion of these changes. As far as the allegations with regard to possible breaches of



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the Local Plan and the Area Plan is concerned, the Chamber wishes to underline that these should become more specific, since they pertain to particular permits for the realization of the project. Notwithstanding the above and in order to counterbalance the commercial character of the development at the Old Port, the Chamber deems that the implementation of public character projects as these were envisaged in the provisions of the architectural competition and/or of the awarded design should be promoted and that efforts should be made towards utilizing parts of the available spaces for purposes of cultural nature. Moreover, the Cyprus Ports Authority, in co-operation with the Department of Town Planning and the Limassol Municipality, ought to encourage the works having to do with public benefit projects in the area, while a public presentation of the project would also be useful. On this occasion, ETEK reiterates its unequivocal support with respect to the procedure of the Architectural Competition, as the only choice for the design and the realization of similar projects and as an institution that ensures transparency, inclusiveness and the architectural quality of the project. The Chamber also underlines that, especially for public projects of this scale, it is important to conduct a public presentation and consultation with a view to ensuring the greatest social acceptance possible before finalizing the terms and conditions for the building program of the competition.

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November 21 - 27, 2012


A Green European Budget However predictable the difficult negotiations that accompany European politics may seem to be, in the end they seldom fail to surprise. A crucial European Union summit aimed at securing a deal on the EU budget for 2014-2020, the so-called multi-annual financial framework (MFF), will take place later this week, and the mood music surrounding it has been intense, to say the least. Before even a word has been spoken, Europeans are being told that the negotiations in Brussels will be “bad-tempered,” with vetoes by individual member states looming large. Unfortunately, such talk could well become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Consider this: A group of major companies based in various EU countries – the likes of Tesco, Shell, Barilla, and Philips – are insisting that whatever its final size, the MFF deal should commit to a proposed minimum of 20% of spending in 2014-2020 on green and low-carbon growth. These are the same companies that Europe’s national governments court and listen to on a daily basis. But, when it comes to the MFF, Europe’s national leaders appear not to be listening closely. Nor do they say much about the obvious dividends that such spending could provide, from the United Kingdom in the west to the EU’s newest candidate country, Croatia, in the east. Europe’s 500 million citizens may not be surprised by what is playing out in the corridors of power, but they ought to find it very disturbing. The issue is not only what could be lost in the race to the bottom in which many EU national governments are now engaging, but also the manipulative anti-EU sentiment coming from many quarters of the European press, which appears intent on pushing various national leaders into another

By Jacques Delors Former president of the European Commission and a former French minister of economics and finance, is founding President of the Notre Europe – Jacques Delors Institute.

budget showdown. In the EU’s western, net-contributor states, the MFF debate remains narrowly focused on how much money can be cut from the European Commission’s proposed ?1.033 trillion ($1.3 trillion) budget for 2014-2020. Next to nothing, though, is being said about the Commission’s more important, and more integral, proposal: the 20% spending commitment for projects and initiatives that can stimulate resource-efficient business, protect Europe’s collective, boundary-less environment, and ensure a better future for families across the continent. The dividends promised by a “green” MFF (which recently received the support of the European Parliament) are at least threefold: a higher share of jobs in one of the world’s fastest-growing economic sectors; lower energy bills for households throughout Europe; and help in achieving the reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions to which all EU states have agreed as part of their “Europe 2020” commitments. The green potential within EU spending has already taken root. In France, for example, social housing organizations have rapidly

deployed ?320 million of EU money in the last few years to improve energy efficiency in existing housing stock. This European finance triggered additional investment of €2.2 billion, created 15,000 local jobs, and has resulted in savings of ?98 per month per household, thanks to a 40% average decrease in heating costs. Recently, Michael Heseltine, a former minister in Margaret Thatcher’s government, stressed the importance of wind energy for deprived regions of the United Kingdom, such as the northeast of England. And yet the penny has not dropped in London that focusing European investment funds accordingly would create opportunities to build stronger businesses and increase competitiveness in the technologies of the future – and to share these gains within and beyond the EU. Instead, in the UK and elsewhere, the predictable MFF chest-thumping that is now underway threatens to dispatch this kind of opportunity to the bin beneath the negotiating table. Europe has come a long way since 1951 and the creation of the European Coal and Steel Community, the forerunner of the EU. But we are now in the process of constructing the EU economy anew, striving to overcome the economic crisis, and creating a more sustainable, globally competitive, and resilient European economy – an economy that can be green as well as productive. The EU’s heads of government need to understand the bigger picture as they prepare for this week’s MFF summit. Europe’s common good – indeed, its most promising path to a prosperous future – is at stake. © Project Syndicate, 2012.

Missing Growth Multipliers PRINCETON – In April 2010, when the global economy was helps to explain why the growth deceleration has been so widebeginning to recover from the shock of the 2008-2009 financial cri- spread and persistent. When a country’s economic growth slows, sis, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook predicted that global GDP it imports less from other countries, thereby reducing those coungrowth would exceed 4% in 2010, with a steady annual growth rate tries’ growth rates, and causing them, too, to reduce imports. The eurozone has been at the epicenter of this contractionary of 4.5% maintained through 2015. But the forecast proved to be far force on global growth. Since eurozone countries trade extensivetoo optimistic. In fact, global growth has decelerated. In its most recent WEO, ly with each other and the rest of the world, their slowdowns have the IMF forecasts global GDP to grow by only 3.3% in 2012, and by contributed significantly to a decrease in global 3.6% in 2013. Moreover, the downgrading of growth prospects is trade, in turn undermining global growth. In particular, as European imports from East Asia have fallen, remarkably widespread. The forecast errors have three potential sources: failure to rec- East Asian economies’ growth is down sharply from ognize the time needed for economic recovery after a financial cri- last year and the 2010 forecast – and, predictably, growth in their sis; underestimation of the “fisimports from the cal multipliers” (the size of outrest of the world put loss owing to fiscal austerihas lost momenty); and neglect of the “worldtum. trade multiplier” (the tendency Visiting professor of International Economic Global trade for countries to drag each other Policy at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public has steadily weakdown as their economies conand International Affairs, Princeton University. ened, with almost tract). no increase in the For the most part, the severity and implications of the financial crisis were judged well. last six months. The once-popular notion, built into Lessons from the October 2008 WEO, which analyzed recoveries growth forecasts, that exports would provide an after systemic financial stress, were incorporated into subsequent escape route from the crisis was never credible. That notion has now been turned on its head: as economforecasts. As a result, predictions for the United States – where household ic growth has stalled, falling import demand from deleveraging continues to constrain economic growth – have fall- trade partners has caused economic woes to spread en short only modestly. The April 2010 report forecast a US growth and deepen. The impact of slowing global trade is most apparrate of roughly 2.5% annually in 2012-2013; current projections ent for Germany, which was not burdened with put the rate a little higher than 2%. By contrast, the fiscal multiplier was seriously underestimated excessive household or corporate debt, and enjoyed a – as the WEO has now recognized. Consequently, forecasts for the favorable fiscal position. To escape the crisis, United Kingdom – where financial-sector stresses largely resem- Germany used rapid export growth – especially to meet voracious Chinese demand. Although growth bled those in the US – have been significantly less accurate. The April 2010 WEO forecast a UK annual growth rate of near- was expected to slow subsequently, it was forecast at ly 3% in 2012-2013; instead, GDP is likely to contract this year and roughly 2% in 2012-2013. But, as Chinese growth increase by roughly 1% next year. Much of this costly divergence has decelerated – owing partly to decreased exports from the earlier projections can be attributed to the benign view of to Europe – the German GDP forecast has been halved. And, given that this year’s growth has largefiscal consolidation that UK authorities and the IMF shared. Likewise, the eurozone’s heavily indebted economies (Greece, ly already occurred, Germany’s economy has now Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) have performed considerably plateaued – and could even be contracting. In good times, the trade generated by a country’s worse than projected, owing to significant spending cuts and tax hikes. For example, Portugal’s GDP was expected to grow by 1% growth bolsters global growth. But, in times of crisis, this year; in fact, it will contract by a stunning 3%. The European the trade spillovers have the opposite effect. As the Commission’s claim that this slowdown reflects high sovereign- global economy has become increasingly intercondefault risk, rather than fiscal consolidation, is belied by the UK, nected, these trade multipliers have increased. Indeed, while less ominous and dramatic than where the sovereign risk is deemed by markets to be virtually nonfinancial contagion, trade spillovers profoundly influexistent. The world-trade multiplier, though less widely recognized, ence global growth prospects. Failure to recognize

By Ashoka Mody

their impact implies that export – and, in turn, growth – projections will continue to miss the mark. The projected increase in global growth next year will likely not happen. On the contrary, policy errors and delays in individual countries will seriously damage economies worldwide. © Project Syndicate, 2012.

November 21 - 27, 2012


Bulls, not bears, go into hibernation The longest losing streak on world markets since the darkest days of the euro crisis in late 2011 shows how reluctant investors are to trust in any sustained recovery after years of crisis. Global equity indices on Friday flirted with a record eight consecutive days in the red for the first time in a year. Do a sweep of all related risky assets around the world and there’s been a similar pattern of pullback. And given those are the eight trading days since the U.S. election results on November 7, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out the dominant market concern of the moment. Investors of all hues just seemed to have downed tools for the year as they await the outcome of the battle between reelected Democrat President Barack Obama and Republicandominated House of Representatives over how to avert the “fiscal cliff”. If there were any doubt about the shift in dominant risks over the year, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s latest investment funds poll this week showed 54% citing the impending threat of automatic U.S. tax rises and spending cuts as the biggest global risk - more than twice those citing the euro crisis. For the record, they swapped places in the September poll after 17 months in which euro angst was seen as the top threat. But the result of the election was exactly as most people had forecast for months, the nature of the cliff hasn’t changed an iota and the big funds nearly all expect some resolution anyhow. So, it might seem just a little odd why people waited until after the election to dump stocks. At the very least it begs yet another question about how efficient markets really are in discounting future risks. Some strategists, such as Barclays, say it was important to wait for post-election negotiating positions to be laid out and, on that basis, reckon the chances of hitting the cliff are now “non-trivial.” But maybe the sudden funk is less rooted in Washington than it is in the edginess of year-end markets - markets that have been tossed around for two years now on a welter of crises

and crisis-management but making about as much net headway as their “zig-zagging” underlying economies, to borrow this week’s phrase from Bank of England chief Mervyn King. What looked like a pretty impressive year for virtually all asset classes up to November is now in danger of wimping out as funds bank profits on their winning 2012 trades. With a little over a month to go, Wall Street’s once doubledigit year-to-date rises have shrunk to less than 8%, while


By Mike Dolan

German equity gains of more than 25% have slipped into the teens. Emerging market equities, which were up almost 20% by February, have pared back to 10%.


With the rump gains still relatively punchy given the economic backdrop, then it’s easy to see persistent temptation to cash in without any breakthrough stateside. Hard currency emerging market debt and global high-yield bonds, for example, are still up over 15% each. In fact, in a year driven by central bank monetary stimuli it was hard to lose money anywhere beyond a near 20% drop in soft commodities. So-called safe-havens are up alongside the riskier plays, with gold still up 10% and 10-year U.S. Treasuries up more than 5%. But with the global economy still slowing and major economies in Europe and Japan flatlining or in recession, are these market moves all just monetary smoke and mirrors? A quick check of net asset moves over the two years of both euro sovereign debt and U.S. fiscal anxiety offers perspective. Since the end of 2010, developed market equities have actu-

ally done very little, with total returns just 3%. Ditto for the U.S. dollar. Emerging market equities have done even worse, with net losses over the two years still at more than 10%. The big winners are all monetary-policy sensitive or safety plays - with some 15-25% gains in gold, oil, U.S. Treasuries, German bunds, corporate and emerging market debt. Gold and oil aside, other demand-driven commodities such as copper and soft commodities have been hammered by 1030%. So, how important then is the cliff or even the euro crisis if the monetary taps keep coming on at every critical juncture? Well, one way to look at this year’s moves is to watch the jump in positive surprises on U.S. economic data - as captured by Citi’s economic surprise index - even as equivalent European measures have turned down again. But Wall Street has not followed this leading signal yet as it appears to have done routinely in the past - in fact it’s gone the opposite direction over the past fortnight. Is this then the fiscal cliff factor? Will macro data roll over if the cliff is hit? Or has a dour earnings season been swamped by all the tax uncertainty that means at least some pent-up demand will be seen come an eventual deal? With the bulls rather than bears setting up for hibernation this winter, maybe the long-term pessimists have an answer. Many of them reckon the macro data and policy environment has merely masked a cliff of another kind. “Despite the upside economic surprises, profits have been spiralling downwards,” said Societe Generale’s Albert Edwards. “It’’s not the impending fiscal cliff the market is worrying about, it’s the actual profits cliff we have already fallen off.” Third-quarter S&P500 earnings were flat from a year ago, Thomson Reuters data shows, and they slightly beat forecasts for the first decline in three years. But Edwards reckons the rate at which earnings estimates are being downgraded suggests we are already in a profit recession, that consensus forecasts of 12% next year are optimistic and - just like in 2008 - the economic data would follow suit. “Expect the New Year to bring nothing but disappointment.”

You want to be a Board Director - now what? You’re a sitting chief executive who wants to see how another company’s board governs. Or you’re an aspiring CEO who wants to benefit from a valuable professional development opportunity and expand your marketability. Perhaps you are a newly retired executive who wants to stay active and connected. Or maybe you’re a functional leader who wants to contribute your expertise in exchange for gaining a broader strategic perspective. You may even be a CEO or chief HR officer looking for ways to improve your own company’s succession planning by getting your CEO-ready executives some boardroom experience. Many of today’s senior executives would like to join a corporate board of directors. The irony is that while much has been written about the legitimate difficulties of companies finding qualified and interested directors for their boards, there are a growing number of prospective directors who would be all too happy to serve. If you are one of these prospective directors, the question is how to position yourself and navigate the nuances of the director selection process to get placed on a board. Here are six steps to follow: 1. Board Bio - Create a compelling and concise board bio, which prominently outlines your skills and experiences. Focus on what you would bring to the boardroom. If you have financial expertise make that your key selling point. Many companies are wrestling with the impact of social media and are looking to bring that expertise into the boardroom. Others are seeking experience and relationships in China, India, Brazil and other emerging markets, so trumpet that if you have it. Of course, if you have experience interacting with a board of directors, highlight that as well. The key is to articulate the value that you will bring to a company’s board. 2. Target List - Determine what types of boards would be most interesting and relevant for you. Serving as a director is a time-consuming activity, so you want to be enthusiastic about investing your time. What industry sectors or types of

business issues are of greatest interest to you? Do you prefer private-equity backed or public companies? Make an expansive target list of companies whose boards would be of interest to you. Peruse lists of fastest growing companies and take a geographic cut. Think about private-equity or venture-backed companies — be systematic and go through the websites of PE

By James Citrin Senior Director at Spencer Stuart and VC firms, identify interesting portfolio companies and add them to your target list. Then organise the list into categories and identify the board members of each. You may be surprised to find people you know or one degree of separation away. 3. Your Interests - With board bio and target list in hand, you’re now ready to get the word out. Express your interests to colleagues or people you know who already serve on a board. These individuals are frequently approached about other board opportunities and might be too busy to pursue them and therefore able to refer you. Make other targeted outreaches to people who may be influential in director selection, including executive search firms that focus on director recruitment, lawyers, accountants, investment bankers, and management consultants. Be very focused in your “ask” – for an introduction to a specific person or company or to be kept in mind should they be asked to recommend someone for a prospective director. 4. Director Events - Attend director education events, which offer the opportunity both to become more familiar

with the governance issues confronting boards today, and meet well-connected individuals who can offer insights into the director selection process or recommend you at some point in the future. Expanding your own network through these types of events can be one of the most powerful ways to get into the community of board directors. 5. Search Firms - Be responsive to outreach by the executive search firms that specialise in board director recruitment. Just remember that these firms represent the client company and are likely to only be able to place you on a board if your unique experience matches the criteria that they have been retained to find. 6. Not for Profits - Get started with a not-for-profit or community board. If you are eager to get going and corporate board opportunities have yet to materialise, it may be both pragmatic and fulfilling to pursue a directorship with an educational, healthcare, social services, or other mission-driven organisation. Often, these become stepping-stones for corporate boards through the interconnected web of relationships. If you are an excellent director, adding value and working collaboratively with others on your not-for-profit board, you may be surprised how directly this can create opportunities for other board directorships. Board service is often a rewarding experience both professionally and personally. There is a growing demand for dedicated directors who can guide and govern our corporations. So, if you want to be a board director and bring your expertise to bear, these six steps will get you on your way. Good luck. James M. Citrin is a member of the worldwide board of directors and co-leads the North American Board & CEO Practice at Spencer Stuart, one of the world’s leading executive search consulting firms.

November 21 - 27, 2012


Is Finance Too Competitive? Many economists are advocating for regulation that would make banking “boring” and uncompetitive once again. After a crisis, it is not uncommon to hear calls to limit competition. During the Great Depression, the head of the United States National Recovery Administration argued that employers were being forced to lay off workers as a result of “the murderous doctrine of savage and wolfish competition, [of] dog-eat-dog and devil take the hindmost.” He appealed for a more collusive business environment, with the profits made from consumers to be shared between employers and workers. Concerns about the deleterious effects of competition have always existed, even among those who are not persuaded that government diktat can replace markets, or that intrinsic human goodness is a more powerful motivator than monetary reward and punishment. Where the debate has been most heated, however, concerns the effects of competition on incentives to innovate. The great Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter believed that innovation was a much more powerful force for human betterment than was ordinary price competition between firms. As a young man, Schumpeter seemed to believe that monopolies deaden the incentive to innovate – especially to innovate radically. Simply put, a monopolist does not like to lose his existing monopoly profits by undertaking innovation that would cannibalize his existing business. By contrast, if the industry were open to new players, potential entrants, with everything to gain and little to lose, would have a strong incentive to unleash the waves of “creative destruction” that Schumpeter thought so essential to human progress. In a competitive industry, only paranoid incumbents – those constantly striving for betterment – have any hope of surviving. As an older man, Schumpeter qualified his views to argue that some degree of monopoly might be preferable to competition in creating stronger incentives for companies to innovate. The rationale is simple: If patent protection were limited, or if it were easy for competitors to innovate around intellectual property, a firm in a competitive market would have very little incentive to invest in pathbreaking research and development. After all, the firm would gain only a temporary advantage at best. If, instead, it withheld spending, and simply copied or worked around others’ R&D, it could survive perfectly well – and might be better off. Knowing this, no one would innovate. But if the firm enjoyed a monopoly, it would have the incentive to undertake innovations that improved its profitability (so called “process” innovations), because it would be able to capture the resulting profits, rather than see them be competed away. A “boring” bank, shielded from competition and knowing that it “owns” its customers, would want to go the extra mile to help them, because it would get its pound of flesh from their future business. Customers can be happy even when faced by a monopoly, though they would grumble far more if they knew how much they were paying for good service! An analogy may be useful. A monopoly is like running on firm ground. Nothing compels you to move, but if you do, you move forward. The faster you run, the more scenery you see – so you have some incentive to run fast. Competition is like a treadmill. If you stand still, you get swept off. But when you run, you can never really get ahead of the treadmill and cover new terrain – so you never run faster than the speed that is set. So which industrial structure is better for encouraging you to run? As economists are prone to say, it depends. Perhaps one can have the best of both worlds if one starts on a treadmill, but can jump off if one runs particularly fast – the system is competitive, but those who are particularly innovative secure some monopoly rents for a while. This is what a strong system of patent protection does. But patents are ineffective in some industries, like finance. The overwhelming evidence, though, is that financial competition promotes innovation. Much of the innovation in finance in the US and Europe came after it was deregulated in the 1980’s – that is, after it stopped being boring. The critics of finance, however, believe that innovation has been the problem. Instead of Schumpeter’s “creative destruction,” bankers have engaged in destructive creation in order to gouge customers at every opportunity while shielding themselves behind a veil of complexity from the prying eyes of regulators (and even top management). Former US Federal Reserve Board Chairman Paul Volcker has argued, somewhat tongue-in-cheek, that the only useful financial innovation in recent years has been the ATM. Hence, the critics are calling for limits on competition to discourage innovation. Of course, the critics are right to argue that not all innovations in finance have been useful, and that some have been downright destructive. By and large, however, innovations such as interest-rate swaps and junk bonds have been immensely beneficial, allowing a variety of firms to emerge and obtain finance in a way that simply was not possible before. Even mortgage-backed securities, which were at the center of the

By Raghuram Rajan Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and the chief economic adviser to the government of India, is the author of Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy.

financial crisis that erupted in 2008, have important uses in spreading home and auto ownership. The problem was not with the innovation, but with how it was used – that is, with financiers’ incentives. And competition does play a role here. Competition makes it

harder to make money, and thus depletes the future rents (and stock prices) of the incompetent. In an ordinary industry, incompetent firms (and their employees) would be forced to exit. In the financial sector, the incompetent take on more risk, hoping to hit the jackpot, even while the regulator protects them by deeming them too systemically important to fail. Instead of abandoning competition and giving banks protected monopolies once again, the public would be better served by making it easier to close banks when they get into trouble. Instead of making banking boring, let us make it a normal industry, susceptible to destruction in the face of creativity. © Project Syndicate, 2012.

November 21 - 27, 2012

10 | WORLD

Monti seals deal with Qatar l

Venture will focus on food, fashion, luxury

Qatar has agreed to invest as much as 1 bln euros in Italian companies, aiding efforts by Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti to breathe life into a weak economy. A joint venture between Italy’s strategic investment fund and state-owned Qatar Holding will invest in sectors including food, fashion and luxury goods, furniture and design, tourism and leisure. The venture will have capital of up to 2 bln euros provided equally by both partners over the first four years, according to the agreement signed during Monti’s visit to the small, energy-rich Gulf state. The “IQ Made in Italy Venture” will start with 300 mln euros of capital. “We have four or five ideas (for investment in Italy) we are studying at the moment,” Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh

Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani said at a news conference in Doha. Qatar is also preparing to sign another agreement with Italy worth 1 bln euros aimed at small and medium-sized enterprises, Sheikh Hamad said, adding that Qatar would participate in half that amount. Monti’s visit to the Gulf was partly aimed at attracting new investment both for Italian sovereign bonds and for companies which have had serious problems raising capital as the financial crisis has squeezed bank balance sheets and cut off lending. “It’s significant that Italy now seems to be proactive in attracting long-term institutional investors and this venture with Qatar clearly signals that,” said Rachel Zeimba, senior analyst and sovereign wealth fund expert at Roubini Global

Economics in London. “It is not clear if the investments are restricted to listed companies alone but it proves that Qatar sees long-term value in sectors such as food and fashion in the country and wants to play in on these themes,” she said.

US approves Russia trade bill… with human rights slap l

Moscow calls bill an “insult,” says will respond

The U.S. House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly to “name and shame” Russian human rights violators as part of a broader bill to drop Cold War-era trade restrictions, brushing off warnings from Moscow that the move would damage relations. The House voted 365-43 to approve the legislation, which takes a jab at the policies of Russian President Putin while ensuring U.S. companies get the full benefits of Russia’s entry into the World Trade Organization on August 22. “Since Vladimir Putin was re-elected president in May 2012, his government has taken a harsh and confrontational approach to ongoing protests, cracking down on the Russian people’s growing discontent with corruption and creeping authoritarianism,” said Representative Jim McGovern, a Democrat. The bill, which still needs Senate approval, would establish “permanent normal trade relations,” or PNTR, with Russia. In a provision that infuriates Moscow, the bill would direct President Barack Obama to publish the names of Russians believed involved in the abuse and death of Sergei Magnitsky, a Russian anti-corruption lawyer who died in a Moscow jail in 2009.

It would also require the United States to deny visas and freeze the assets of any individual on the list, as well as other human rights violators in Russia on an ongoing basis. Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov was in Washington to witness the vote, which came on the third anniversary of Magnitsky’s death. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ileana RosLehtinen, a Republican, said in a statement that Nemtsov told her that Putin had made stopping the legislation his utmost priority because it threatened to ensnare those closest to the Russian leader. Without PNTR, Russia could deny U.S. exporters some of the market-opening benefits others will enjoy due to Russia’s WTO entry. The United States also could not use the WTO dispute-settlement system to challenge Russian actions without PNTR. U.S. business groups believe PNTR could help them double or triple exports to the world’s ninth-largest economy. “With our high unemployment, we cannot afford to pass up any opportunity to increase our exports and create jobs,” said House Ways and Committee Chairman Dave Camp, a

US heading for another crash, debt crisis looms Two leading U.S. economists have expressed deep pessimism that politicians in Washington will be able to strike a deal to rein in America’s soaring national debt. Sheila Bair, the former chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and Stephen Roach, a veteran economist at Yale University’s School of Management, also said the Federal Reserve was creating another catastrophic financial bubble with attempts to stimulate the economy through its policy known as quantitative easing. The two were speaking at a conference on global risks sponsored by the Rand Corporation and Thomson Reuters, at Rand headquarters in Santa Monica, California. Bair, who stepped down as head of the FDIC in July 2011, said the Fed’s policy of pumping money into the economy, combined with an unprecedented period of historically low interest rates, was creating “the mother of all bond bubbles.” Bair said she believed the United States was heading for a financial crash on the scale seen when the housing market collapsed six years ago, but this time because of investors who were looking for higher and riskier returns in other asset classes. Roach called the Fed policy of low interest

rates and quantitative easing a “ticking time bomb that keeps on ticking.” The two spoke as congressional leaders in Washington met with Obama to try to find common ground on taxes and spending that will allow them to head off a looming “fiscal cliff” that could push the U.S. economy back into recession. About $600 bln worth of tax increases and spending cuts begin to kick in on January 1 unless Congress can find a way to replace them with less severe deficit-reducing measures before then. Bair and Roach both said they believed Congress will find some way to “kick the can down the road” on the question of the fiscal cliff. Neither believes Washington will pass the fundamental structural reforms necessary to deal with America’s long-term debt crisis. The U.S. has been running annual deficits of over $1 trln for several years. National debt now tops $16 trln. A series of panels and commissions last year recommended a mix of revenue increases and spending cuts as a way to pay down the debt. Efforts by Obama and John Boehner, the Republican House Speaker, to reach a “grand bargain” on debt reduction collapsed amid acrimony last year.

Republican. Obama is expected to sign the bill if it reaches his desk, even though the White House initially pressed for PNTR legislation without the human rights sanctions provisions.


The Russian Foreign Ministry called the legislation “an aggressively unfriendly, provocative insult” and said “measures in response will certainly follow.” It urged Obama not to sign the bill, saying: “We hope the American executive authorities understand the pernicious consequences to which the legislative actions of ill-wishers and opponents of our bilateral interaction may lead.” Both the House bill and a similar one pending in the Senate would allow the White House to keep secret the names of some individuals on the Magnitsky list if the president determined that was in the national security interest of the United States. Magnitsky was jailed in 2008 on suspicion of tax evasion and fraud, charges colleagues say were fabricated by Russian police investigators he had accused of stealing $230 mln from the state through fraudulent tax refunds. The Kremlin’s own human rights council has said he was probably beaten to death.

US lawmakers confident they can avoid ‘fiscal cliff’ Leading U.S. lawmakers have expressed confidence that they could reach a deal to avert the “fiscal cliff” even as they laid down markers on taxes and spending that may make any agreement more difficult. Republicans and Democratic leaders have agreed on a framework to reform the tax code and government benefit programs next year, but first need to prevent acrossthe-board tax increases and spending cuts due to begin in January that could push the economy back into recession. That toxic $600 bln combination, known as the fiscal cliff, is the legacy of earlier failed budget deals. Both sides say they see greater willingness to compromise this time. “What I hear is a perceptible change in rhetoric from the other side,” Dick Durbin, the No. 2 Senate Democrat, said on CNN’s “State of the Union” program. “And what it is is an invitation for our side to basically sit down and say, ‘What can we do for this country’?” Taxes are the biggest hurdle. President Barack Obama campaigned on a promise to raise tax rates on the wealthiest 2% of households, who have benefited more than the rest of the population over the past

several decades as globalization and technology have transformed the U.S. economy. He wants to extend low tax rates for the bottom 98% of the population, but said he will not sign a budget deal that keeps low rates for the wealthiest in place. Nancy Pelosi, the top Democrat in the House of Representatives, echoed this view. Though Republicans control the House, they will probably need Democratic votes to get any deal passed. “If it’s going to bring in revenue, the president has been very clear that the higher-income people have to pay their fair share,” she said on ABC’s “This Week.” A top Republican, Representative Tom Price, said his colleagues recognize the need to generate more tax revenue even as he said any tax-rate increase on the wealthy would lead to job losses. Most Republican lawmakers have signed a pledge promising they will not tax rates. Instead, they want to generate more revenue through a rewrite of the code that would eliminate exemptions, lower rates and presumably spur the economy. They also say tax changes must be paired with spending cuts.

November 21 - 27, 2012


AÚ. 890

∆∂∆∞ƒ∆∏, 21 ¡√∂ªµƒπ√À, 2012

AÁοıÈ Ê˘ÛÈÎfi ·¤ÚÈÔ, ËÌÈÎÚ·ÙÈÎÔ›, ∞∆∞ Î·È Û˘ÓÙ·ÍÈÔ‰ÔÙÈÎfi ∞ÓÔȯٿ ˙ËÙ‹Ì·Ù· ÛÙȘ ‰È·Ú·ÁÌ·Ù‡ÛÂȘ ∫˘‚¤ÚÓËÛ˘-∆ÚfiÈη˜ Το φυσικÞ αέριο, το συνταξιοδοτικÞ, η ΑΤΑ, και η ιδιωτικοποίηση των ηµικρατικών οργανισµών, αποτελούν τισ τελευταίεσ δύο µέρεσ αντικείµενο έντονων διαπραγµατεύσεων ανάµεσα στην Κυβέρνηση και του κλιµακίου τησ ΤρÞικασ. Στο θέµα τησ ATA, η ΤρÞικα φαίνεται να ζητά πάγωµα του θεσµού κατά τη διάρκεια του προγράµµατοσ προσαρµογήσ και ακολούθωσ θέλει να καταβάλλεται κατά το ήµισυ σε ετήσια βάση. Επίσησ, οι πιστωτέσ προτείνουν να αφαιρεθούν απÞ τον κατάλογο των προϊÞντων για τον δείκτη υπολογισµού τησ ΑΤΑ κάποια απÞ αυτά, περιλαµβανοµένου του ηλεκτρικού ρεύµατοσ. Εξάλλου, το κλιµάκιο τησ ΤρÞικασ, αν και δεν είχε θέσει το θέµα του συνταξιοδοτικού απÞ την αρχή, κατά την επάνοδÞ τησ στο νησί ζητά να µηδενιστεί η συνεισφορά του κράτουσ προσ το ΤΚΑ, ύψουσ 4,3% και είτε να αυξηθεί η εισφορά απÞ εργοδÞτεσ και εργοδοτούµενουσ είτε να µειωθούν τα ωφελήµατα.

Κάτι τέτοιο, εκτιµάται Þτι οδηγεί σταδιακά στην ιδιωτικοποίηση του ασφαλιστικού. Εξάλλου, η ΤρÞικα φέρεται να ζητά τη διαγραφή του χρέουσ του κράτουσ προσ το ΤΚΑ, ύψουσ 7,2 δισ., κάτι µε το οποίο η Κυβέρνηση δεν συµφωνεί, καθώσ θέτει θέµα βιωσιµÞτητασ του Ταµείου Κοινωνικών Ασφαλίσεων.

™À¡∆∞•∏ ™∆∞ 65 Ωσ προσ το Þριο συνταξιοδÞτησησ, φαίνεται αναφέρουν οι πληροφορίεσ, Þτι υπάρχει συµφωνία στο 65ο έτοσ τησ ηλικίασ. ΠαρÞλα αυτά, η ΤρÞικα ζητά διασύνδεση του ορίου αφυπηρέτησησ µε το προσδÞκιµο ζωήσ, που συνήθωσ αυξάνεται και αναθεωρείται προσ τα πάνω. Η Κυβέρνηση, σύµφωνα µε πηγέσ, φαίνεται να απορρίπτει τη λογική τησ ιδιωτικοποίησησ των κερδοφÞρων ηµικρατικών οργανισµών και θεωρεί την πρακτική αυτή αντιορθολογική, καθώσ υπάρχουν οργανισµοί που

¶ÈÛÛ·Ú›‰Ë˜: ∫·Ì›· ‰È·Ú·ÁÌ¿Ù¢ÛË ÁÈ· ·¤ÚÈÔ

∂ÓË̤ڈÛË ·fi ÃÚÈÛÙfiÊÈ·

ΚÞκκινη γραµµή θα πρέπει να αποτελέσει για την κυβέρνηση το θέµα τησ χρήσησ των εσÞδων απÞ το φυσικÞ αέριο, υποστήριξε σε δηλώσεισ του ο Χρινοµπελίστασ στÞφοροσ Πισσαρίδησ. Σε παρέµβαση του για το θέµα που φαίνεται να προκύπτει απÞ την απαίτηση τησ τρÞικασ Þπωσ συµπεριληφθεί πρÞνοια στο µνηµÞνιο, υποστήριξε πωσ τα έσοδα απÞ το φυσικÞ αέριο θα πρέπει να χρησιµοποιούνται πρωτίστωσ για αποπληρωµή του χρέουσ, άσχετα µε το τι θέλει η ΤρÞικα. Ο κ. Πισσαρίδησ είπε Þτι, επείγει η βουλή να ψηφίσει ταµείο για τα έσοδα απÞ το φυσικÞ αέριο πριν αρχίσουν διάφοροι να έχουν απαιτήσεισ.

Ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ ∆ηµήτρησ ΧριστÞφιασ, συγκάλεσε για σήµερα το πρωί, σύσκεψη των αρχηγών των κοµµάτων για ενηµέρωσή τουσ, αναφορικά µε τισ διαπραγµατεύσεισ µε την τρÞικα. Στισ διαπραγµατεύσεισ, «παραµένουν διαφωνίεσ σε σοβαρά ζητήµατα» ανέφερε ο κυβερνητικÞσ εκπρÞσωποσ Στέφανοσ Στεφάνου. Απέφυγε να υπεισέλθει στο θέµα των διαφωνιών και περιορίστηκε να αναφέρει Þτι, έγινε παρά πολλή δουλειά. Μέσα απÞ τη διαπραγµάτευση, επιτεύχθηκαν συγκλίσεισ σε διάφορα ζητήµατα, πρÞσθεσε, χωρίσ και πάλι να γίνει συγκεκριµένοσ.

συνεισφέρουν στα έσοδα του κράτουσ. ΑπÞ την άλλη, φέρεται να συµφωνεί πωσ πρέπει είτε να ιδιωτικοποιηθούν είτε να καταργηθούν κάποιοι ηµικρατικοί οργανισµοί, ενώ συµφωνία φαίνεται Þτι υπάρχει και ωσ προσ την ιδιωτικοποίηση του ΧΑΚ, αν και υπάρχει αµφιβολία ωσ προσ την καταλληλÞτητα τησ παρούσασ χρονικήσ περιÞδου.

∆ƒ∞¶∂∑∂™ Σύµφωνα µε τισ ίδιεσ πληροφορίεσ, η Κυβέρνηση θεωρεί ανοιχτÞ το θέµα τησ ανακεφαλαιοποιήσησ των τραπεζών, ενÞσω αναµένει τα αποτελέσµατα απÞ τον διαγνωστικÞ έλεγχο που διενεργεί η Pimco. Η εκτίµηση τησ ΤρÞικασ είναι Þτι το ποσÞ θα ανέλθει στα 10 δισ., για σκοπούσ εργασίασ, αναθεωρηµένο προσ τα κάτω απÞ τισ αρχικέσ τησ εκτιµήσεισ για 12 δισ ευρώ. ΑπÞ την άλλη πλευρά, η Κυβέρνηση φαίνεται Þτι αναµένει πωσ το ποσÞ που θα προκύψει απÞ την έρευνα τησ Pimco θα είναι χαµηλÞτερο απÞ τα 10 δισ. Προτίθεται, σύµφωνα µε τισ πληροφορίεσ αυτέσ, να λάβει σοβαρά υπÞψη το αποτέλεσµα τησ Pimco, απÞ την άλλη Þµωσ δεν θεωρεί πωσ αυτÞ θα είναι δεσµευτικÞ, κρατώντασ έτσι ένα περιθώριο για ελιγµούσ. Αναφορικά µε τη διαπραγµάτευση στο θέµα τησ χρονικήσ διάρκειασ τησ εκποίησησ ακινήτων, η κυβερνητική πλευρά φαίνεται πωσ διαβλέπει κάποια βελτίωση. Σύµφωνα µε τισ πληροφορίεσ, υπάρχει συµφωνία να δοθεί µια περίοδοσ χάριτοσ προτού αρχίσει η διαδικασία εκποίησησ, την οποία η ΤρÞικα τοποθετεί µετά την

ανάκαµψη και την επάνοδο τησ οικονοµίασ σε τροχιά ανάπτυξησ. Κατά την ΤρÞικα, η διάρκεια τησ διαδικασίασ εκποίησησ ακινήτων κυµαίνεται απÞ 18 µήνεσ έωσ 2 χρÞνια για την ιδιοκατοίκηση. Η κυβερνητική πλευρά φαίνεται Þτι θα ήθελε να υπάρξει επιµήκυνση τησ περιÞδου που χρειάζεται για τη διαδικασία εκποίησησ. ΑνοιχτÞ εξάλλου φαίνεται Þτι παραµένει και το θέµα των αξιογράφων, αν και η κυβερνητική πλευρά µάλλον συµφωνεί µε τη θέση τησ ΤρÞικασ Þτι οι τράπεζεσ θα έπρεπε να επωµισθούν το κÞστοσ και Þχι το κράτοσ.

«°∫ƒπ∑√» ºÀ™π∫√ ∞∂ƒπ√ Ωσ προσ το φυσικÞ αέριο φαίνεται πωσ υπάρχουν «γκρίζα σηµεία» µεταξύ των δύο πλευρών, µε την κυπριακή πλευρά να επιδιώκει να καταστήσει σαφέσ πωσ το θέµα τησ διαχείρισησ των εσÞδων αποτελεί κυριαρχικÞ τησ δικαίωµα. Η κυπριακή πλευρά έχει καταθέσει πρÞταση στη βάση του νορβηγικού µοντέλου, σύµφωνα µε την οποία ένα µέροσ των εσÞδων θα πηγαίνει στον κρατικÞ προϋπολογισµÞ για την αποπληρωµή του δανείου, ένα µέροσ σε επενδύσεισ για υποδοµέσ, κυρίωσ για το φυσικÞ αέριο, και ένα µέροσ θα κατατίθεται για τισ µελλοντικέσ γενιέσ, Þχι µÞνο ωσ αποθεµατικÞ αλλά και σε επενδύσεισ. ΑπÞ την πλευρά τησ, η ΤρÞικα ζητά Þπωσ τα έσοδα του φυσικού αερίου κατατίθενται κατά προτεραιÞτητα για την αποπληρωµή του χρέουσ.

¢∏™À: ∫Ô‡ÚÛ· ‰È·‰Ô¯‹˜ ·fi ºÂ‚ÚÔ˘¿ÚÈÔ ∞‚¤ÚˆÊ, ∫·ÛÔ˘Ï›‰Ë˜ Î·È ÛÙÔ ‚¿ıÔ˜ £ÂÔ¯¿ÚÔ˘˜ Î·È ∆ÔÚÓ·Ú›Ù˘ Η προδιαγραφÞµενη αποχώρηση του Νίκου Αναστασιάδη απÞ τον προεδρικÞ θώκο του ∆ΗΣΥ σε περίπτωση πάντα που επιβεβαιωθούν οι δηµοσκοπήσεισ και γίνει στισ εκλογέσ του Φεβρουαρίου ο νέοσ ένοικοσ του Προεδρικού Μεγάρου άνοιξε για τα καλά την κούρσα διαδοχήσ του στην Πινδάρου. Ο αναπληρωτήσ ΠρÞεδροσ του ∆ΗΣΥ Αβέρωφ Νεοφύτου αν και ο ίδιο δήλωνε προ τριµήνου σε δηµοσιογράφουσ Þτι δεν επιθυµεί να είναι ο νέοσ ΠρÞεδροσ σηµειώνοντασ χαρακτηριστικά «δεν πρÞκειται να γίνω Βενιζέλοσ του Συναγερµού», εντούτοισ φαίνεται να έκανε δεύτερεσ σκέψεισ κάτι το οποίο γίνεται εύκο-

λα αντιληπτÞ και απÞ τισ κινήσεισ που κάνει το τελευταίο διάστηµα. Κινήσεισ Þπωσ η επίσκεψη του στην Κεντρική Τράπεζα για να δει το ∆ιοικητή τησ Πανίκο ∆ηµητριάδη ένα εικοσιτετράωρο πριν τη συνάντηση του κύριου ∆ηµητριάδη µε τον Νίκο Αναστασιάδη ακÞµη και το «κÞψιµο» του βουλευτή του κÞµµατοσ Ανδρέα Πιτσιλλίδη απÞ το φιλανθρωπικÞ σÞου Dansing δείχνουν µια νέα αρχηγική προσέγγιση. Τισ δικέσ του σκέψεισ για να διεκδικήσει την Προεδρία κάνει Þπωσ µαθαίνουµε ο ευρωβουλευτήσ του κÞµµατοσ Γιαννάκησ Κασουλίδησ ο οποίοσ επιχείρησε κάτι τέτοιο χωρίσ επιτυχία και στο παρελθÞν (λαµβάνο-

ντασ 47% έναντι 53% του Νίκου Αναστασιάδη), Þπωσ και η συνάδελφοσ του Ελένη Θεοχάρουσ, ενώ η θέση δεν αφήνει αδιάφορο ούτε το Νίκο Τορναρίτη. Φηµολογία πάντωσ που αναπτύχθηκε το τελευταίο διά-

στηµα η οποία φέρει το Νίκο Αναστασιάδη να παραιτείται απÞ τη θέση του πριν τισ Προεδρικέσ εκλογέσ τησ 17ησ Φεβρουαρίου χαρακτηρίζεται απÞ πηγέσ τησ Πινδάρου ωσ αβάσιµη.


21 ΝΟΕΜΒΡΙΟΥ, 2012

2/14 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ

µ√C: ∂ÂÍÂÚÁ¿˙ÂÙ·È Û¯¤‰ÈÔ ·ÔÎÔÒÓ Του φρονίµου τα παιδιά πριν πεινάσουν µαγειρεύουν λέει η γνωστή παροιµία και στην Τράπεζα Κύπρου Þπωσ πληροφορείται η Financial Mirror επεργάζονται σχέδιο το οποίο θα προνοεί και κλιµακωτέσ µειώσεισ στισ απολαβέσ του προσωπικού. Οι µειώσεισ Þµωσ µασ ανέφεραν χαρακτηριστικά υψηλÞβαθµεσ πηγέσ του Συγκροτήµατοσ θα είναι σαφώσ µικρÞτερεσ απÞ αυτέσ που ανακοινώθηκαν στη Λαϊκή Τράπεζα οι οποίεσ ξεκινούσαν στο 4% και έφθαναν µέχρι το 17%. Την ίδια ώρα ήδη τÞσο ο CEO τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου Γιάννησ Κυπρή, Þσο και οι υπÞλοιποι γενικοί διευθυντέσ έχουν συναινέσει σε µείωση του µισθού τουσ απÞ 10%15%. Οι ίδιεσ πηγέσ δεν απέκλεισαν να προσφερεί και σχέδιο εθελούσιασ εξÞδου στο προσωπικÞ παρÞµοιο µε αυτÞ που εκπονήθηκε για τη Λαϊκή Τράπεζα µε στÞχο να εξοικο-

νοµηθούν και άλλοι πÞροι. Η κίνηση αυτή να σηµειωθεί γίνεται και µε τισ ευλογίεσ του ∆ιοικητή τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ Πανίκου ∆ηµητριάδη ο οποίοσ έβαλε στÞχο να σµικρύνει το τραπεζικÞ σύστηµα τησ Κύπρου µε στÞχο να γίνει πιο ανταγωνιστικÞ. Σε µια άλλη εξέλιξη το γεγονÞσ Þτι η ΤρÞικα συναίνεσε Þπωσ το Core Tier 1 να αυξηθεί στο 9% αντί στο 10% που ήθελε προηγουµένωσ αυτÞ συνεπάγεται για το ΣυγκρÞτηµα εξοικονÞµηση 250 εκ. ευρώ απÞ το συνολικÞ ποσÞ τησ ανακεφαλαιοποίησησ τησ. Τέλοσ σύµφωνα µε πληροφορίεσ µασ το τελικÞ ποσÞ που θα απαιτηθεί για την ανακεφαλαιοποίηση τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου αποτελεί κλειδί για το ενδεχÞµενο αύξησησ τησ συµµετοχήσ του Ρώσου κροίσου Ντιµίτρι ΡυµπολÞβλεβ ο οποίοσ για την ώρα κρατά στάση αναµονήσ.

∏ ¡oble ı¤ÏÂÈ ¤ÏÂÁ¯Ô ÙÔ˘ ÙÂÚÌ·ÙÈÎÔ‡ ·ÏÏ¿ ... Απαντήσεισ στα ερωτήµατα για την ανάπτυξη των αναγκαίων υποδοµών, αγωγοί και τερµατικÞ , προσ εκµετάλλευση του φυσικού αερίου απÞ το ΟικÞπεδο 12 αναζήτησε η υπουργική επιτροπή µε την οµάδα διαπραγµάτευσησ µε την Noble Energy. Ùπωσ πληροφορείται η εφηµερίδα µασ απÞ αναφορέσ µέλουσ τησ οµάδασ αυτÞ που θα επιδιωχθεί θα είναι να κλειδώσει ο έλεγχοσ του τερµατικού απÞ το κράτοσ έστω και αν σε αυτÞ συµµετέχουν πολλοί επενδυτέσ. Σύµφ��να µε πληροφορίεσ η αµερικανική εταιρεία παρά του Þτι ήθελε τον έλεγχο του τερµατικού κατανοεί

τισ ανησυχίεσ τησ κυβέρνησησ. Προσ ικανοποίηση των απαιτήσεων τησ εταιρείασ η κυβέρνηση προσανατολίζεται να τησ δώσει δεσπÞζουσα θέση στην πρώτη γραµµή παραγωγήσ ώστε να προχωρήσει µε την αξιοποίηση του κοιτάσµατοσ απÞ το οικÞπεδο 12. Παράλληλα θα συνεχιστούν εντÞσ τησ βδοµάδασ και οι διαπραγµατεύσεισ για τα άλλα 4 οικÞπεδα στο πλαίσιο του Β γύρου αδειοδοτήσεων Οι κοινοπραξίεσ ΕΝΙ και ΤΟΤΑΛ ΝΟΒΑΤΕΚ κλήθηκαν απÞ το Υπουργείο Εµπορίου να καταθέσουν βελτιωµένεσ προτάσεισ τÞσο σε οικονοµικÞ Þσο και τεχνικÞ επίπεδο.

∆Ô ¿Ó ‰ÈηÛÙÈο ÔÈ Î¿ÙÔ¯ÔÈ ·ÍÈÔÁÚ¿ÊˆÓ Ùρουσ εντολήσ σε δικηγÞρουσ έδωσε ο Σύνδεσµοσ ΚατÞχων Αξιογράφων. Τραπεζικών Συγκεκριµένα ο Σύνδεσµοσ έδωσε εντολή στουσ δικηγÞρουσ Μάριο Ηλιάδη, Αλέκο Μαρκίδη, Κρισ Τριανταφυλλίδη και Μάρκο ΓρηγÞρη ∆ράκο, να προβούν σε διαδικασίεσ διεκδίκησησ ενώπιον δικαστηρίου των δικαιωµάτων των κατÞχων τραπεζικών αξιογράφων. Με αυτÞ τον τρÞπο, ο Σύνδεσµοσ προχωρεί στην υλοποίηση τησ οµÞφωνησ απÞφασησ τησ 4ησ Παγκύπριασ Συνέλευσησ των ΚατÞχων Τραπεζικών Αξιογράφων, που πραγµατοποιήθηκε την περασµένη Παρασκευή. Οι Þροι εντολήσ του Συνδέσµου προσ τουσ δικηγÞρουσ είναι πρώτον «να κινηθούν νοµικά, περιλαµβανοµένων και ιδιωτικών ποινικών και αστικών αγωγών εναντίον παντÞσ υπευθύνου, ο οποίοσ, άµεσα ή έµµεσα, εθελουσίωσ ή αθελήτωσ, συµµετείχε στην καταδολίευση και ή παραπλάνηση των καταθετών/µελών µασ, µετατρέποντασ, εν µία νυκτί, τισ καταθέσεισ τουσ σε αξιÞγραφα». Ο Σύνδεσµοσ θεωρεί ωσ υπεύθυνουσ τουσ Προέδρουσ και τα µέλη των ∆ιοικητικών Συµβουλίων των Τραπεζών Κύπρου και Λαϊκήσ, παρÞντων και απελθÞντων, τα διοικητικά στελέχη των δύο τραπεζών, τουσ διευθυντέσ και τουσ υπαλλήλουσ των καταστηµάτων των δύο τραπεζών, οι οποίοι βρίσκονται εν υπηρεσία ή έχουν αποχωρήσει. Επίσησ, το ∆ιοικητή και τα στελέχη τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ τησ Κύπρου, τουσ εσωτερικούσ και εξωτερικούσ ελεγκτέσ των δύο τραπεζών, που ασκούσαν έλεγχο στισ δύο τράπεζεσ Þταν εκδÞθηκαν/πωλούνταν τα αξιÞγραφα, καθώσ και οποι-

ουσδήποτε άλλουσ στουσ οποίουσ επιρρίπτει ευθύνη το πÞρισµα τησ έρευνασ που διεξήγαγε η Κεντρική Τράπεζα ύστερα απÞ οδηγίεσ τησ Επιτροπήσ Θεσµών και Αξιών τησ Βουλήσ των Αντιπροσώπων. Επίσησ, µέσα στουσ Þρουσ εντολήσ τησ οµάδασ των δικηγÞρων είναι και «να επιδιώξουν αµέσωσ τη λήψη ασφαλιστικών µέτρων και την έκδοση ενδιάµεσου διατάγµατοσ (interim order), το οποίο να απαγορεύει την άµεση η έµµεση στο παρÞντα χρÞνο ή στο µέλλον µετατροπή των αξιογράφων σε µετοχέσ, Þπωσ η πρÞθεση των τραπεζών και τησ ΤρÞικασ. Επίσησ, να απαγορεύει την ανταλλαγή των αξιογράφων τησ Λαϊκήσ µε κυβερνητικά οµÞλογα. Για Þσο χρÞνο δεν καταβάλλεται τÞκοσ για τα αξιÞγραφα, να απαγορεύει στισ τράπεζεσ να χρεώνουν τÞκουσ στα δάνεια που συνήφθησαν µε εξασφάλιση τα αξιÞγραφα και να επιβάλλει παγοποίηση των δÞσεων των εν λÞγω δανείων». Επιπλέον, οι δικηγÞροι καλούνται απÞ το Σύνδεσµο να µετακαλέσουν απÞ την Αγγλία δικηγÞρουσ εγνωσµένου κύρουσ, οι οποίοι στο πρÞσφατο παρελθÞν κέρδισαν δίκεσ εναντίον τραπεζών για απερίσκεπτεσ/αµελείσ πωλήσεισ (misselling) αξιογράφων και άλλων αξιών. Ο Σύνδεσµοσ εκφράζει την ετοιµÞτητά του να αναστείλει τη λήψη νοµικών µέτρων, αν οι τράπεζεσ, έστω και τη δωδεκάτη, συνετισθούν και παρουσιάσουν σαφώσ βελτιωµένεσ προτάσεισ βάσει των οποίων θα επιστραφεί το κεφάλαιο των καταθέσεων και οι συσσωρευµένοι τÞκοι των κατÞχων αξιογράφων.

ŒÚÌ·ÈÔ ÙˆÓ ‰È·Ú·ÁÌ·Ù‡ÛÂˆÓ ÙÔ Ã∞∫ Aπώλειεσ κατέγραψε χθεσ το Χρηµατιστήριο Αξιών Κύπρου, λÞγω τησ αβεβαιÞτητασ που επικρατεί σε σχέση µε τισ µαραθώνιεσ διαπραγµατεύσεισ που είναι σε εξέλιξη µε την τρÞικα και τισ πληροφορίεσ που διαρρέουν Þτι µεταξύ των δύο πλευρών υπάρχουν διαφωνίεσ σε κεφαλαιώδη θέµατα. Ο ΓενικÞσ ∆είκτησ έκλεισε µε πτώση 2,08% και διαµορφώθηκε στισ 127,79 µονάδεσ. Απώλειεσ, αν και χαµηλÞτερεσ, σηµείωσε και ο δείκτησ FTSE/CySE 20, ο οποίοσ υποχώρησε κατά 1,94% και διαµορφώθηκε στισ 49 µονάδεσ. Ο Þγκοσ συναλλαγών ανήλθε σε 533.853,84 µονάδεσ. Το µεγαλύτερο επενδυτικÞ ενδιαφέρον συγκέντρωσαν οι µετοχέσ τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου µε Þγκο συναλλαγών 317.004 ευρώ (τιµή κλεισίµατοσ 0,283 ευρώ – πτώση 2,41%), τησ Λαϊκήσ Τράπεζασ µε 148.991 ευρώ (τιµή κλεισίµατοσ 0,053 – πτώση 3,63), τησ CTO Public Company µε 38,323 ευρώ – άνοδοσ 3,33%), τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ µε 11.006

(τιµή κλεισίµατοσ 0,176 ευρώ – άνοδοσ 0,57%) και τησ Cyprus Cement µε 7.638 ευρώ (τιµή κλεισίµατοσ 0,150 – πτώση 6,25%).

√Úȷο Î¤Ú‰Ë ÛÙÔ Ã∞ Ο γενικÞσ δείκτησ στο Χρηµατιστήριο Αθηνών έκλεισε σχεδÞν αµετάβλητοσ, παρά τισ πιέσεισ που σηµειώθηκαν στον τραπεζικÞ κλάδο, οι οποίεσ στο µεγαλύτερο µέροσ τουσ αποδίδονται σε κινήσεισ κατοχύρωσησ κερδών µετά την έντονα ανοδική κίνηση τησ ∆ευτέρασ. Στο ταµπλÞ, ο ΓενικÞσ ∆είκτησ έκλεισε µε οριακά κέρδη 0,04% στισ 821,23 µονάδεσ. Για τον δείκτη των τραπεζών, µε µοναδικÞ τίτλο σε θετικÞ έδαφοσ αυτÞν τησ Eurobank, οι απώλειεσ διαµορφώθηκαν σε 2,53% (έωσ το -5,00% ενδοσυνεδριακά) στισ 276,54 µονάδεσ.

48ˆÚË ·ÂÚÁ›· ÙˆÓ ÔÈÎÔ‰fiÌˆÓ Παραλύει την Πέµπτη και την Παρασκευή ο οικοδοµικÞσ τοµέασ τησ Κύπρου, αφού οι συντεχνίεσ των οικοδÞµων κατέρχονται σε 48 απεργία, µια κίνηση που οι Γενικοί Γραµµατείσ τησ ΣΕΚ και τησ ΠΕΟ χαρακτήρισαν ωσ µήνυµα προσ τουσ εργοδÞτεσ ευρύτερα, οι οποίοι, Þπωσ είπαν, εκµεταλλεύονται την οικονοµική κρίση για να πλήξουν τα δικαιώµατα των εργαζοµένων.

™ÙȘ 28/11 Û˘Ó‰ÚÈ¿˙ÂÈ Ë §·˚΋ Στισ 28 Νοεµβρίου, 2012 θα συνέλθει το ∆ιοικητικÞ τησ Συµβούλιο τησ Cyprus Popular Bank Public Co Ltd, για να εξετάσει, µεταξύ άλλων, τα Οικονοµικά Αποτελέσµατα για την περίοδο Ιανουαρίου - Σεπτεµβρίου 2012.

√ CIPA ‚Ú¿‚¢Û ‰ÈÂıÓ›˜ ÂȯÂÈÚ‹ÛÂȘ Ο ΚυπριακÞσ ΟργανισµÞσ Προσέλκυσησ Επενδύσεων (CIPA) βράβευσε διεθνείσ επιχειρήσεισ που δραστηριοποιούνται στην Κύπρο. ΠρÞκειται για τισ εταιρείεσ Lidl Cyprus, H.M. Housemarket (Cypus) Ltd, Laureate International Universities, Alfa Capital Holdings (Cyprus) Ltd, Columbia Shipmanagement Ltd, Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement,(Cyprus) Ltd και NCR (Cyprus) Ltd. Ειδικά βραβεία απονεµήθηκαν στην Noble Energy Inc και στο Μιχάλη Ζαµπέλα.

°ÈÔÚÙ‹ Ù˘ ∑È‚·Ó›·˜ Το µήνα Ζιβανίασ διοργανώνουν απÞ κοινού η Εταιρεία Ανάπτυξησ και Προβολήσ ΤροÞδουσ, η Περιφερειακή Ένωση Συνδέσµων Αποδήµων Πιτσιλιάσ και οι κοινÞτητεσ Άλωνασ και Πελενδρίου, µε υποστηρικτή τησ οργάνωσησ την CTC-ARI Airports, η εταιρεία που διαχειρίζεται τα καταστήµατα αδασµολογήτων στα αεροδρÞµια Λάρνακασ και Πάφου. Οι εκδηλώσεισ για τον µήνα Ζιβανίασ θα ξεκινήσουν την Κυριακή 25 Νοεµβρίου στην πλατεία του χωριού Άλωνα απÞ τισ 11:00 π.µ. µέχρι 16:00. ΣτÞχοσ τησ εκδήλωσησ είναι οι επισκέπτεσ να µπορούν να παρακολουθήσουν τη διαδικασία παραγωγήσ ζιβανίασ, απÞ το άλεσµα των σταφυλιών µέχρι την απÞσταξή τησ, την κατασκευή παραδοσιακών εδεσµάτων απÞ χυµÞ σταφυλιού. Οι εκδηλώσει κορυφώνονται την Κυριακή 2 ∆εκεµβρίου στο ΠολιτιστικÞ Κέντρο Πελενδρίου. Οι διοργανωτέσ παρέχουν δωρεάν µεταφορά σε Þσουσ θέλουν απÞ την ΛεµεσÞ και την Λευκωσία. Για πληροφορίεσ στα τηλέφωνα 22674264, 25323211.

∆Ô ‚ÈÔÏ› ÙÔ˘ ÁÈ· ÂÙ·ÈÚÈÎfi ÊfiÚÔ Ô ™fiÈÌÏÂ Έχοντασ στο πλευρÞ του και τη Γαλλία ο ΓερµανÞσ ΥπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών ΒÞλφγκανγκ ΣÞιµπλε επιδιώκει να προκαλέσει τριγµούσ στην Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση µε την εµµονή του να θέσει µέσω των G20, δηλαδή των πλουσιÞτερων οικονοµιών του πλανήτη, θέµα εναρµÞνισησ του συντελεστή φορολογίασ επιχειρήσεων, κάτι που εκ των πραγµάτων αγγίζει και την Κύπρο. ΣτÞχοσ του ΣÞιµπλε Þπωσ µασ αναφέρθηκε αρµοδίωσ απÞ υψηλÞβαθµεσ πηγέσ στισ Βρυξέλλεσ είναι η υιοθέτηση ενÞσ κοινού φορολογικού συντελεστή κατά πάσα πιθανÞτητα το 15%, Μάλιστα µε βάση πληροφορίεσ φέρεται να έχει αποστείλει και επιστολή προσ τον αµερικανÞ οµÞλογÞ του, ζητώντασ τη συµβολή και των Ηνωµένων Πολιτειών για µια συνολική λύση, σε παγκÞσµια κλίµακα, γύρω απÞ το φαινÞµενο των ούτω καλούµενων φορολογικών παραδείσων. Πρακτικά παρά το Þτι η Κύπροσ βρίσκεται αυτή τη στιγµή µε την πλάτη στον τοίχο αφού τυχÞν συµφωνία µε την ΤρÞικα θα περάσει και απÞ το γερµνατικÞ κοινοβούλιο υπάρχουν αρκετέσ δυσκολίεσ για να υλοποιήθει άµεσα η προσπάθεια του κ. ΣÞιµπλε. Η κυβέρνηση πάντωσ έχει για την ώρα τη στήριξη τησ ΚοµισιÞν.

21 ΝΟΕΜΒΡΙΟΥ, 2012


ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | 3/15

¡¤· ÁÂÓ¿ ÙÔÈÎÒÓ Û¯Â‰›ˆÓ ∞ÓÙÒÓ˘ §Ô˚˙Ô˘ ∞ÓÙÒÓ˘ §Ô›˙Ô˘ F.R.I.C.S. & ™˘ÓÂÚÁ¿Ù˜ §Ù‰, ∂ÎÙÈÌËÙ¤˜ ∞ÎÈÓ‹ÙˆÓ & ¢È·¯ÂÈÚÈÛÙ¤˜ ŒÚÁˆÓ ∞Ó¿Ù˘Í˘

Το αξιÞλογο σεµινάριο που έλαβε χώρα στισ 10/11/2012 απÞ τον Σύνδεσµο ΠολεοδÞµων Κύπρου, ήταν µια εµπειρία για Þλουσ, παρευρισκÞµενουσ και µη. Είµεθα παρÞντεσ και ωσ οµιλητέσ (Α.Λ.) και υποβάλαµε τα πιο κάτω: - Η νέα γενεά έχει µεν καινοτÞµεσ, αλλά η νοοτροπία των υπευθύνων τησ Πολεοδοµίασ παραµένει η ίδια. Τα νέα και «αναβαθµισµένα» τοπικά σχέδια δεν λαµβάνουν υπÞψη ούτε τα οικονοµικά δεδοµένα, ούτε τισ υφιστάµενεσ νοοτροπίεσ και ούτε την τοπική οικονοµική κατάσταση. - Η έλλειψη απαντήσεων απÞ το Υπουργείο Εσωτερικών είναι µια ένδειξη και υποδείξαµε το τεράστιο πρÞβληµα που δηµιουργείται απÞ το νέο µέτρο τησ µεµονωµένησ κατοικίασ. - Η µη απάντηση µασ σε ερωτήµατα για την «νέα γενεά», µασ οδήγησε να απευθυνθούµε στον Γραµµατέα του Υπουργικού Συµβουλίου, χωρίσ να υπάρχει η ανάλογη ανταπÞκριση (µÞνο µε την παρέµβαση του Γραµµατέα) απÞ το Υπουργείο. - Η απÞσυρση τουριστικών κλινών έχει αποτύχει πλήρωσ,

διÞτι και σε αντίθεση µε τισ αρχικέσ δηλώσεισ, εκ των υστ��ρων άλλα ήταν τα δεδοµένα, µε αποτέλεσµα να µετατραπούν ξενοδοχεία σε παράνοµα διαµερίσµατα. - Η απαίτηση για χώρουσ πρασίνου επιβάλλεται τώρα σε µικρά τεµάχια µε αποτέλεσµα να υπάρχουν δηµÞσιοι χώροι των 30-50 τ.µ. που καταλήγουν σε σκουπιδÞτοπουσ που ούτε οι ∆ήµοι δεν θέλουν κÞστοσ συντήρησησ κλπ. - Το ανÞητο τησ ύπαρξησ ελάχιστων τ.µ. για οικιστικά διαµερίσµατα προκαλεί ζηµιά στην αγορά, αυξάνει την ανάγκη τησ επιχορήγησησ απÞ το Κράτοσ και αναγκάζει το Κράτοσ να χρησιµοποιεί χαλίτικη γη (που έχει κÞστοσ) επιβαρύνοντασ τουσ υπÞλοιπουσ. - Η µεµονωµένη κατοικία µε την αψυχολÞγητη απÞφαση προκαλεί τεράστια ζηµιά στουσ πολίτεσ, στουσ χρηµατοδÞτεσ και µε αποτέλεσµα την περαιτέρω διαβάθµιση των χρηµατοδοτών λÞγω µείωσησ των εξασφαλίσεων (ιδιαίτερα τώρα µε την ΤρÞικα!!). - Στα γήπεδα γκολφ µε δυνατÞτητα ύπαρξησ 400 σκαλών χώρων πρασίνου, τοποθέτησαν περιµετρικά µε αποτέλεσµα να µην µπορούν να χρησιµοποιηθούν αυτέσ οι 400 σκάλεσ για αθλοπαιδιέσ ωσ η πολιτική τησ Κυβέρνησησ. - Η πολεοδοµική αµνηστία έχει αποτύχει διÞτι τÞσο η διαδικασία Þσο και η πληρωµή τησ αποζηµίωσησ δεν βοηθά ιδιαίτερα τώρα που η αποζηµίωση θα πρέπει να είναι -40% (βάσει υφιστάµενησ αξίασ). - Η ανÞητη απÞφαση για την µεταφορά συντελεστή δÞµησησ γύρω στο 1.0 εκ. δεν µπορεί να απορροφηθεί και είναι τελείωσ θεωρητική. Με την παραχώρηση του 15% για εµπορι-

κά/τουριστικά έργα και 3% στα οικιστικά, η παραχώρηση είναι δώρο άδωρο. Επιπλέον θα καταστρέψει την αγορά για τα διατηρητέα κτίρια και άρα τα διατηρητέα θα παραµείνουν ωσ έχουν – παλιο-κτίρια. - Ενώ έγινε µια πρÞταση εξαίρεσησ για καλυµµένεσ βεράντεσ (20%) δεν υπάρχει Þµωσ πρÞνοια για κοινÞχρηστουσ διαδρÞµουσ, αναβαθµίζοντασ την ποιÞτητα ζωήσ. - Το κυριÞτερο είναι η αλλαγή νοοτροπίασ απÞ τουσ ιθύνοντεσ τησ προηγούµενησ και τησ υφιστάµενησ νοµοθεσίασ. Ùµωσ εάν είναι νέασ η παλιάσ γενιάσ, η νοµοθεσία διοικείται ακÞµη απÞ τουσ υφιστάµενουσ δηµÞσιουσ υπαλλήλουσ οι οποίοι Þχι µÞνο δεν είναι βοηθητικοί, αλλά και αρνητικοί µε στÞχο πωσ θα εφαρµÞσουν κατά γράµµα την νοµοθεσία µε τισ δικέσ τουσ νοοτροπίεσ αντί να διακατέχονται απÞ ένα ευρύ και βοηθητικÞ πνεύµα - ∆ηλώσαµε την στήριξη µασ για το τέλοσ αναβάθµισησ των πολεοδοµικών ζωνών, αλλά για να εφαρµÞσει χρειάζεται τεράστια λεπτοµέρεια στην εκτέλεση/εφαρµογή. - Ùσον αφορά την φορολογία των ακινήτων που δεν αναπτύσσονται/ διατίθενται (αδρανήσ πλούτοσ) σε εποχέσ δύσκολεσ, το θέµα βρίσκεται στην δυσκολία τησ εφαρµογήσ. Θεωρίεσ λοιπÞν αγαπητοί µασ αναγνώστεσ απÞ τη µια και πρακτική εφαρµογή. Μπογιατίσαµε λοιπÞν ένα mini απÞ άσπρο σε κÞκκινο, βάλαµε και ένα αλογάκι στην πρÞσοψη και το ονοµάσαµε Maserati. Ùµωσ παραµένει η ίδια µάρκα και ο ίδιοσ οδηγÞσ. Και ερωτούµε αυτή είναι η νέα γενεά είναι καλύτερη απÞ την προηγούµενη - Þχι.

∫·Ù·Ù›ıÂÙ·È ·‡ÚÈÔ Ô ¶ÚÔ¸ÔÏÔÁÈÛÌfi˜ ÙÔ˘ 2013 Στην ολοµέλεια τησ Βουλήσ των Αντιπροσώπων κατατίθεται αύριο Πέµπτη απÞ τον ΥπουργÞ Οικονοµικών ο ΠροϋπολογισµÞσ του κράτουσ για το 2013. ΣτÞχοσ, Þλων είναι η Þσο το δυνατÞν καλύτερη ενηµέρωση τησ Βουλήσ για τουσ προϋπολογισµούσ Þλων των υπουργείων. Να σηµειωθεί Þτι στην κατ’ άρθρον συζήτηση του προϋπολογισµού δεν θα είναι παρÞντεσ οι υπουργοί αλλά οι τεχνοκράτεσ των υπουργείων. Ùπωσ δήλωσε ο Αναπληρωτήσ ΠρÞεδροσ τησ Κοινοβουλευτικήσ Επιτροπήσ Οικονοµικών Άγγελοσ ΒÞτσησ,

√È ƒÒÛÔÈ ÎÚ·ÙÔ‡Ó ¿Óˆ ÙÔÓ ÙÔ˘ÚÈÛÌfi Αύξηση, για έκτο στη σειρά µήνα, που ανήλθε στο 0,8% σηµείωσαν οι αφίξεισ τουριστών τον Οκτώβριο του 2012, φθάνοντασ σε 261.997, σε σύγκριση µε 259.863 τον Οκτώβριο του 2011, γεγονÞσ που οφείλεται στη σηµαντική αύξηση που σηµειώθηκε στισ αφίξεισ τουριστών απÞ την Ρωσία Σύµφωνα µε τα στοιχεία που δηµοσιοποίησε η Στατιστική Υπηρεσία, για την περίοδο Ιανουαρίου – Οκτωβρίου 2012 οι αφίξεισ τουριστών ανήλθαν σε 2.326.116 σε σύγκριση µε 2.234.011 την αντίστοιχη περίοδο του 2011, σηµειώνοντασ αύξηση 4,1%. Τον Οκτώβριο του 2012, µε βάση τα αποτελέσµατα τησ Έρευνασ Ταξιδιωτών, σηµειώθηκε αύξηση 41,5% στισ αφίξεισ τουριστών απÞ τη Ρωσία (απÞ 32.995 τον Οκτώβριο του 2011 σε 46.690 τον Οκτώβριο του 2012) και 6,7% αύξηση απÞ την Αυστρία (απÞ 3.318 σε 3.539). Αντίθετα µείωση 5,4% σηµειώθηκε στισ αφίξεισ τουριστών απÞ το Ηνωµένο Βασίλειο (107.046 τον Οκτώβριο του 2012 σε σύγκριση µε 113.205 τον Οκτώβριο του 2011), 4,4% µείωση απÞ τη Σουηδία (12.037 σε σύγκριση µε 12.591), 14,3% µείωση απÞ τη Γερµανία (18.998 σε σύγκριση µε 22.179 πέρσι) και 3,2% µείωση απÞ την Ελλάδα (11.289 σε σύγκριση µε 11.665 πέρσι). Ο Οκτώβριοσ είναι ο έκτοσ στη σειρά µήνασ - απÞ τον περασµένο Μάιο - κατά τον οποίο καταγράφεται αύξηση στισ αφίξεισ τουριστών, σε ετήσια βάση. Το Σεπτέµβριο του 2012 η αύξηση στισ αφίξεισ τουριστών είχε ανέλθει στο 10,2%, τον Αύγουστο στο 7,9%, τον Ιούλιο στο 3,4%, τον Ιούνιο στο 9,7% και το Μάιο στο 3,5%.

Þλοι έχουν πλήρη επίγνωση τησ κατάστασησ στην οποία βρισκÞµαστε και του επείγοντοσ σε Þ,τι αφορά την κατάληξη σε µια συµφωνία τÞσο σε επίπεδο µνηµονίου Þσο και σε επίπεδο προϋπολογισµού». Ερωτηθείσ εάν αποτελεί υποβάθµιση του Κοινοβουλίου η συζήτηση του κορυφαίου ζητήµατοσ ενÞσ κράτουσ, Þπωσ είναι ο προϋπολογισµÞσ, µε τεχνοκράτεσ, ο κ. ΒÞτσησ είπε Þτι «υπήρξε ενÞχληση στην Επιτροπή απ’ αυτή την εξέλιξη. Ùµωσ οι στιγµέσ που ζούµε δεν είναι οι καλύτερεσ, ο χρÞνοσ που έχουµε ενώπιον µασ δεν µασ παρέχει άνεση να κινηθούµε Þπωσ ενδεχοµένωσ θα θέλαµε».

∂ÓÈ·›Ô Ù¤ÏÔ˜ ÂÁÁÚ·Ê‹˜ €150 ·Ó¿ fi¯ËÌ· Προσ ψήφιση στην Ολοµέλεια τησ Βουλήσ αύριο Πέµπτη, παρέπεµψε η κοινοβουλευτική Επιτροπή Οικονοµικών, την πρÞνοια του νοµοσχεδίου για τα οχήµατα, που προβλέπει την κατάργηση του φÞρου εγγραφήσ Þπωσ εφαρµÞζεται σήµερα και θεσµοθέτηση ενιαίου τέλουσ εγγραφήσ ύψουσ 150 ευρώ για κάθε Þχηµα. Η εφαρµογή τησ συγκεκριµένησ πρÞνοιασ αποτελεί υποχρέωση τησ Κύπρου προσ την ΕΕ, ενώ εάν δεν υπάρξει συµµÞρφωση τησ κυπριακήσ νοµοθεσίασ σε σχέση µε αυτÞ το θέµα τÞτε θα µασ επιβληθεί πρÞστιµο. Ωσ γνωστÞ η Κυπριακή ∆ηµοκρατία κινδύνευε µε την επιβολή προστίµου απÞ την ΕΕ λÞγω τησ µη συµµÞρφωσησ τησ µε το ευρωπαϊκÞ κεκτηµένο γι’ αυτÞ το νοµοσχέδιο παρÞλο που ετοιµάστηκε προ πολλού απÞ την κυβέρνηση τώρα κατατέθηκε. ΕκπρÞσωποσ τησ Νοµικήσ Υπηρεσίασ δεν απέκλεισε το ενδεχÞµενο η ΕΕ να ζητήσει εξηγήσεισ για τη µετονοµασία του φÞρου εγγραφήσ σε διοικητικÞ τέλοσ έγγραφησ. Με βάση αυτή την πρÞνοια, καταργείται ο φÞροσ εγγραφήσ Þπωσ εφαρµÞζεται σήµερα και εισάγεται ένα ενιαίο

τέλοσ εγγραφήσ 150 ευρώ ανά Þχηµα, ανεξάρτητα αν αυτÞ είναι καινούργιο ή µεταχειρισµένο ή αν προέρχεται απÞ κράτοσ µέλοσ τησ ΕΕ ή απÞ τρίτεσ χώρεσ. Το Υπουργείο Οικονοµικών έχει δεσµευτεί εντÞσ δύο µηνών να συµφωνήσει µε Þλα τα εµπλεκÞµενα µέρη και στισ υπÞλοιπεσ πρÞνοιεσ του νοµοσχεδίου για να επιτευχθεί ψήφιση και του υπολοίπου µέρουσ του νοµοσχεδίου». ΣτÞχοσ, Þλων είναι η πλήρησ εναρµÞνιση τησ Κύπρου µε την ευρωπαϊκή πρακτική Þσον αφορά την φορολÞγηση των αυτοκινήτων, σύµφωνα µε την οποία ο υπολογισµÞσ του τέλουσ κυκλοφορίασ θα γίνεται µε βάση τισ εκποµπέσ ρύπων και Þχι µε βάση τησ ιπποδύναµησ των οχηµάτων. Ùπωσ δήλωσε ο Αναπληρωτήσ ΠρÞεδροσ τησ Επιτροπήσ Άγγελοσ ΒÞτσησ, «Έχουµε άµεση υποχρέωση να προχωρήσουµε στην κατάργηση του φÞρου εγγραφήσ Þπωσ εφαρµÞζεται σήµερα και θεσµοθέτηση ενιαίου τέλουσ εγγραφήσ», είπε και πρÞσθεσε Þτι εάν δεν κατατεθούν σύντοµα στη Βουλή προσ ψήφιση και οι υπÞλοιπεσ πρÞνοιεσ του νοµοσχεδίου τÞτε το κράτοσ θα χάσει έσοδα.

∆Ô CIª ·ÓÙÈÚfiÛˆÔ˜ Ù˘ ∫‡ÚÔ˘ ÛÙÔ BUSINET Ωσ αντιπρÞσωποσ τησ Κύπρου στο BUSINET (Network International Business Schools), επιλέγηκε το CIM το οποίο ιδρύθηκε το 1996 µε απώτερο σκοπÞ τη δικτύωση των Business Schools σε ένα παγκοσµιοποιηµένο περιβάλλον και αριθµεί πέραν των 100 µελών απÞ 25 χώρεσ. Η επίσηµη ένταξη του CIM στο BUSINET έγινε κατά τη διάρκεια των εργασιών του ετήσιου συνεδρίου του NIBS που πραγµατοποιήθηκε φέτοσ στη Μπρατισλάβα, Σλοβακία, 14-18 Νοεµβρίου.

Το CIM αντιπροσώπευσε ο ΒοηθÞσ ΓενικÞσ ∆ιευθυντήσ Γιάγκοσ Χατζηγιάννησ. Στο συνέδριο παρευρέθησαν πέραν των 300 συνέδρων που µελέτησαν διάφορεσ προοπτικέσ συνεργασίασ για την παροχή εκπαιδευτικών προγραµµάτων που να ανταποκρίνονται στισ σύγχρονεσ ανάγκεσ των φοιτητών. Ùπωσ αναφέρεται, ο κ. Χατζηγιάννησ είχε την ευκαιρία να συζητήσει διάφορεσ προοπτικέσ συνεργασίασ και να προάγει την Κύπρο ωσ ένα διεθνέσ εκπαιδευτικÞ κέντρο.

21 ΝΟΕΜΒΡΙΟΥ, 2012


4/16 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ

∂ÁÒ ÛÙÚ·ÒÓÓˆ Ù˙È·È Ô˘ÏÒ, ÂÛ‡ ¿ÌÏÂ Ù˙È’ ·ÁfiÚ·˙ ∏ ∫ÔÌÈÛÈfiÓ Û˘Ì‚Ô˘Ï‡ÂÈ ·ÊÔ‡ ÔÈ ·ÁÔÚ¤˜ ·fi ÙÔ ‰È·‰›ÎÙ˘Ô ÚÔÛʤÚÔ˘Ó Â˘Î·Èڛ˜ ·ÏÏ¿ ÎÚ‡‚Ô˘Ó Î·È ÎÈÓ‰‡ÓÔ˘˜ Ùπωσ λέει και µια λαϊκή ρύση τησ κυπριακήσ τοπολαλιάσ «Εγιώ στραώννω τζιαι πουλώ τζιαί σου άµπλεπε τζι αγÞραζε», δηλαδή εγώ σε στραβώνω και σου πουλώ Þτι θέλω, εσύ να προσέχεισ τι αγοράζεισ. ΑυτÞ µασ συµβουλεύει και η ΚοµισιÞν που παρουσίασε το εργαλείο των κέντρων καταναλωτή τησ ΕΕ που ελέγχει τουσ διαδικτυακούσ εµπÞρουσ. Μασ προτρέπει να χρησιµοποιούµε το Howard Online Shopping ( ένα εργαλείο που είναι διαθέσιµο στισ ιστοσελίδεσ του Ευρωπαϊκού Κέντρου Καταναλωτή για να ελέξετε έναν ιστÞτοπο πριν αγοράσετε. Το σύστηµα έχει αναπτύξει το ECC NET τησ ∆ανίασ µε δική του πρωτοβουλία και η Επιτροπή προσπαθεί τώρα να το αναβαθµίσει. Το ΕυρωπαϊκÞ Κέντρο Καταναλωτή θέλοντασ να προστατεύσει τα δικαιώµατα των καταναλωτών, δηµιούργησε το ∆ίκτυο των Ευρωπαϊκών Κέντρων Καταναλωτή (ΕΚΚ) το οποίο λειτουργεί σε 29 χώρεσ, σε Þλα τα κράτη µέλη τησ Ε.Ε. συµπεριλαµβανοµένων τησ Ισλανδίασ και τησ Νορβηγίασ. Το ∆ίκτυο παρέχει πληροφορίεσ και συµβουλέσ σε Þλα τα θέµατα που αφορούν τουσ καταναλωτέσ σχετικά µε τα οικονοµικά τουσ συµφέροντα. Για την Κύπρο επισκεφθείτε την ιστοσελίδα Η Επιτροπή δίδει οδηγίεσ για να είστε ενήµεροι, αφού οι αγορέσ απÞ το διαδίκτυο προσφέρουν ευκαιρίεσ αλλά κρύβουν και κινδύνουσ. Τα προηγούµενα δύο χρÞνια έγιναν καταγγελίεσ απÞ 31.000 καταναλωτέσ στα κέντρα τησ ΕΕ (ECC Net) απÞ τισ οποίεσ οι µισέσ αφορούσαν online αγορέσ.

∫∞¡√¡∂™ - Να γνωρίζετε απÞ ποιÞν αγοράζετε: Προσπαθήστε να ψωνίσετε σε µία γνωστή ή συνιστώµενη ιστοσελίδα και βεβαιωθείτε Þτι έχετε το Þνοµα και τα πλήρη στοιχεία επικοινωνίασ. Θα πρέπει να ξέρετε ταχυδροµική διεύθυνση τησ ιστοσελίδασ. Μην βασίζεστε µÞνο σε ένα e-mail ή σε µία ηλεκτρονική διεύθυνση. Μην υποθέτετε Þτι ένασ ιστοχώροσ βασίζεται στην χώρα που υποδεικνύεται απÞ π.χ. ηλεκτρονική διεύθυνση του. ∆ηλαδή το “.cy” δεν σηµαίνει απαραίτητα Þτι η ιστοσελίδα

σχÞλια για έµπορο που άφησε άλλουσ καταναλωτέσ εκτεθειµένουσ αλλά και σε ψευδή θετικά σχÞλια που έµποροι γράφουν για τον εαυτÞ τουσ, ειδικά στισ δικέσ τουσ ιστοσελίδεσ. Να ξέρετε επίσησ Þτι πολλοί πληρώνουν, έτσι ώστε να εµφανίζονται στην κορυφή τησ αναζήτησησ. Μην ξεγελιέστε απÞ την κατάταξη και κάντε την δική σασ έρευνα. - Πληρωµέσ µε ασφάλεια: Ποτέ µην στείλετε µετρητά ή επιταγή, γιατί δεν θα µπορείτε να προσφύγετε αν κάτι πάει στραβά. Συνήθωσ έχετε µεγαλύτερη προστασία, αν χρησιµοποιείτε µια πιστωτική κάρτα. Σιγουρευτείτε ακÞµα Þτι χρησιµοποιείτε µια ασφαλή ιστοσελίδα για να εισάγετε τα στοιχεία τησ πιστωτικήσ κάρτασ. Ψάξτε για ένα κλειστÞ λουκέτο στην κάτω δεξιά γωνία του παραθύρου του προγράµµατοσ περιήγησησ και για τη διεύθυνση τησ ιστοσελίδασ που πρέπει να αρχίζει µε «https://». Βεβαιωθείτε Þτι ο υπολογιστήσ σασ έχει anti-virus λογισµικÞ.

έχει έδρα την Kύπρο. Να θυµάστε επίσησ πωσ εάν ψωνίζετε απÞ δικτυακούσ τÞπουσ µε έδρα εκτÞσ τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ένωσησ τα δικαιώµατά σασ ωσ πολίτησ τησ ΕΕ δεν θα έχουν εφαρµογή και µπορεί να αντιµετωπίσετε απροσδÞκητεσ χρεώσεισ ή φÞρουσ! - ∆ιαβάστε πριν αγοράσετε: Προσοχή στισ ιστοσελίδεσ που έχουν µÞλισ πρÞσφατα δηµιουργηθεί. Yπάρχουν πολλέσ ιστοσελίδεσ που εµφανίζονται και εξαφανίζονται πολύ γρήγορα. ΑκÞµα να ερευνάτε πάντα το ιστορικÞ των άγνωστων εµπÞρων πριν απÞ την αγορά. Μια απλή αναζήτηση στο διαδίκτυο µπορεί να αποκαλύψει πολλά. Προσοχή σε αρνητικά

- Αποφύγετε τισ απάτεσ: Ποτέ µα ποτέ, µην απαντήσετε σε ανεπιθύµητα µηνύµατα ηλεκτρονικού ταχυδροµείου (spam) και να είστε προσεκτικοί Þταν κάνετε κλικ σε συνδέσεισ σε µηνύµατα ηλεκτρονικού ταχυδροµείου. Προσέξτε υποσχέσεισ για τεράστιεσ ανταµοιβέσ, Þπωσ κέρδη λαχείων. Να είστε επιφυλακτικοί και να θυµάστε Þτι αν κάτι ακούγεται πολύ καλÞ για να είναι αληθινÞ, συνήθωσ δεν είναι. ΥπÞψη σασ πωσ δεν πρέπει να αποκαλύπτετε προσωπικέσ πληροφορίεσ που δεν είναι αναγκαίεσ για την ολοκλήρωση µιασ συναλλαγήσ. Ορισµένεσ προσωπικέσ λεπτοµέρειεσ, σε συνδυασµÞ µε τον αριθµÞ τησ πιστωτικήσ σασ κάρτασ, θα µπορούσε να οδηγήσει σε κλοπή ταυτÞτητασ. Τέλοσ αποφύγετε την αγορά παραποιηµένων προϊÞντων. Τέτοια προϊÞντα είναι συχνά επικίνδυνα ή κακήσ ποιÞτητασ και µπορεί να είναι πολύ δύσκολο να λάβετε αποζηµίωση σε περίπτωση που κάτι πάει στραβά. Η πώληση των προϊÞντων αποµίµησησ είναι παράνοµη και είναι συχνά συνδέεται µε το οργανωµένο έγκληµα. - Κατανοήστε τη δέσµευσή σασ: Είναι σηµαντικÞ να διαβάζετε πάντα τα ψιλά γράµµατα και να ξέρετε ακριβώσ τι αποδέχεστε πριν προχωρήσετε µε τη σύµβαση. Βεβαιωθείτε Þτι έχετε επίγνωση τησ πολιτικήσ επιστροφήσ. Φροντίστε ακÞµα να κρατήσετε αντίγραφο τησ συναλλαγήσ.

27% ÙÒÛË ÛÙÔ ÎfiÛÙÔ˜ ·Ó¿ ‰È·Ó˘ÎÙ¤Ú¢ÛË ÛÙËÓ ∫‡ÚÔ Το µεγαλύτερο ποσοστÞ µείωσησ για το µήνα Νοέµβριο παρουσίασε η Κύπροσ Þσον αφορά το κÞστοσ ανά διανυκτέρευση σε σχέση µε τα ξενοδοχεία σε άλλεσ ευρωπαϊκέσ πÞλεισ. Η πτώση που καταγράφηκε στην Κύπρο είναι τησ τάξησ του 27% και µε µέση τιµή ανά διανυκτέρευση στα 86 ευρώ, ενώ ακολουθεί η Ουγγαρία µε 25% και µέση τιµή για δίκλινο δωµάτιο στα 67 ευρώ. Αµέσωσ επÞµενη στη λίστα των µεγαλύτερων µειώσεων έρχεται η Ιταλία µε 21% (110 ευρώ ανά διανυκτέρευση) και η Τσεχία µε το ίδιο ποσοστÞ µείωσησ (21% σε σχέση µε τον προηγούµενο µήνα) µε µέση τιµή ανά διανυκτέρευση στα 87 ευρώ. Η Πάφοσ παρουσιάζει το µεγαλύτερο ποσοστÞ µείωσησ τησ τάξεωσ του 55% (µέση τιµή 87 ευρώ) σε σχέση µε τον προηγούµενο µήνα και µÞλισ 2% σε σχέση µε το 2011. Οµοίωσ στη ΛεµεσÞ το ποσοστÞ µείωσησ σε σχέση µε πέρυσι είναι 4%, ενώ σε σχέση µε τον προηγούµενο µήνα εκτοξεύεται στο 48% (µέση τιµή ανά διανυκτέρευση στα 95 ευρώ). Η µÞνη Κυπριακή πÞλη που παρουσιάζει µεγάλη µείωση τιµών και σε σχέση µε τον προηγούµενο µήνα και σε σχέση µε το 2011 είναι η ΠÞλισ µε µέση τιµή διανυκτέρευ-

σησ στα 76 ευρώ (µείωση 39% σε σχέση µε τον προηγούµενο µήνα και 30% σε σχέση µε το προηγούµενο έτοσ). Τα ποσοστά αυτά προκύπτουν απÞ τα αποτελέσµατα του ΚαταλÞγου Ξενοδοχειακών τιµών τησ για το µήνα Νοέµβριο. Η trivago είναι ένα online meta search που συγκρίνει τιµέσ ξενοδοχείων απÞ περισσÞτερα απÞ 100 διαφορετικά sites κρατήσεων για 600.000 ξενοδοχεία ανά τον κÞσµο. Σύµφωνα µε τα αποτελέσµατα Þλεσ οι µεγάλεσ ελληνικέσ πÞλεισ και οι κυρίωσ χειµερινοί προορισµοί παρουσιάζουν αισθητή µείωση των τιµών σε σχέση µε τον προηγούµενο µήνα αλλά και σε σχέση µε το προηγούµενο έτοσ. Πιο

αναλυτικά, στην Αθήνα και παρά το γεγονÞσ Þτι τα Χριστούγεννα είναι προ των πυλών, οι τιµέσ παρουσιάζουν πτωτική τάση µε µέση τιµή διανυκτέρευσησ για δίκλινο δωµάτιο στα 76 ευρώ Τέλοσ στο Παρίσι η µείωση αγγίζει το 23% (µέση τιµή διανυκτέρευσησ τα 165 ευρώ), στη Ρώµη η µέση τιµή για ένα δίκλινο δωµάτιο τη βραδιά είναι στα 114 ευρώ (µείωση 31% σε σχέση µε τον προηγούµενο µήνα). Στη Βιέννη το ποσοστÞ µείωσησ σε σχέση µε τον προηγούµενο µήνα είναι τησ τάξεωσ του 18% µε τη µέση τιµή ανά διανυκτέρευση για δίκλινο δωµάτιο να αγγίζει τα 111 ευρώ.

¶ÚfiÙ·ÛË Ù˘ ∫˘Úȷ΋˜ ¶ÚÔ‰ڛ·˜ ÁÈ· ÙËÓ ÙÚ·Â˙È΋ ÂÓÔÔ›ËÛË Συµβιβαστική πρÞταση µε στÞχο την άρση του αδιεξÞδου στισ διαπραγµατεύσεισ στο Συµβούλιο Υπουργών ECO-FIN για την τραπεζική ενοποίηση και ειδικÞτερα το ρÞλο που θα παίζει η Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα, υπέβαλε η Κυπριακή Προεδρία. Οι διαπραγµατεύσεισ που γίνονται µε βάση την πρÞταση τησ ΚοµισιÞν για την σύσταση ενÞσ ενιαίου µηχανισµού εποπτείασ των ευρωπαϊκών τραπεζών υπÞ την αιγίδα τησ ΕΚΤ δεν προχωρούν, εξαιτίασ των διαφωνιών κυρίωσ απÞ την πλευρά του Ηνωµένου Βασιλείου, τησ Γερµανίασ, τησ Ολλανδίασ και του Λουξεµβούργου, καθώσ και άλλων χωρών που δεν µετέχουν στο ευρώ (Σουηδία, ∆ανία, Πολωνία). Οι βασικέσ ενστάσεισ των παραπάνω χωρών έχουν να

κάνουν µε το ρÞλο τησ ΕΚΤ. Για παράδειγµα το Ηνωµένο Βασίλειο δεν θέλει να δοθούν οι αρµοδιÞτητεσ εποπτείασ στην Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα, γιατί δεν µετέχει στο ευρώ. Η Γερµανία απÞ την πλευρά τησ αντιδρά για διαφορετικούσ λÞγουσ, πιστεύει Þτι η ΕΚΤ δεν µπορεί να αναλάβει την εποπτεία χιλιάδων τραπεζών τησ ΕΕ γιατί τεχνικά είναι πολύ δύσκολο. Η συµβιβαστική πρÞταση τησ Κυπριακήσ Προεδρίασ, επιδιώκει να καθησυχάσει τισ χώρεσ που δεν µετέχουν στο ευρώ, µέσω τησ χαλάρωσησ τησ δέσµευσησ στην εφαρµογή των αποφάσεων τησ ΕΚΤ. Ετσι µια χώρα εκτÞσ Ευρωζώνησ θα µπορεί να αρνηθεί να εφαρµÞσει µια εντολή τησ ΕΚΤ χωρίσ νοµικέσ επιπτώσεισ.

Το µÞνο που θα µπορούσε να υποστεί είναι η ΕΚΤ να χαλαρώσει ή να αναστείλει τη συµµετοχή τησ χώρασ αυτήσ στη διαδικασία τησ τραπεζικήσ ενοποίησησ. Θα µπορεί επίσησ η εν λÞγω χώρα να αποχωρήσει µÞνη τησ. Σύµφωνα µε την πρÞταση τησ Κυπριακήσ Προεδρίασ, τα παραπάνω θα µπορούν να γίνουν µέσω τησ σύστασησ ενÞσ µηχανισµού που θα αφορά τισ χώρεσ εκτÞσ Ευρωζώνησ, που επιθυµούν να συµµετάσχουν στην τραπεζική ενοποίηση. Η πρÞταση τησ Κυπριακήσ Προεδρίασ προβλέπει ταυτÞχρονα την ενίσχυση των αρµοδιοτήτων των εθνικών αρχών εποπτείασ του τραπεζικού τοµέα, ωστÞσο η ΕΚΤ θα εξακολουθήσει να έχει την γενική εποπτεία. Την αύξηση των αρµοδιοτήτων των εθνικών αρχών εποπτείασ ζητούσε η Γερµανία.

21 ΝΟΕΜΒΡΙΟΥ, 2012



OÈ “ηı·ÚÔ› ÏËÚˆÙ¤˜” Ì·˜ Ô‰ËÁÔ‡Ó Û η΋ Û˘Ìʈӛ· ∂∫: ¶ÚÔÊ˘Ï¿ÍÙ ٷ ÎÔÓ‰‡ÏÈ· ÁÈ· ·Ó¿Ù˘ÍË Î·È ··Û¯fiÏËÛË Nα µην αφήσουν τα κράτη µέλη που είναι “καθαροί πληρωτέσ” (Βρετανία, Γαλλία, Γερµανία, Αυστρία, ∆ανία, Σουηδία και Φινλανδία) να οδηγήσουν στην επίτευξη µιασ κακήσ συµφωνίασ κατά τη σύνοδο κορυφήσ που θα πραγµατοποιηθεί αύριο 22 και 23 Νοεµβρίου, θα προσπαθήσουν οι ευρωβουλευτέσ, ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Επιτροπήσ Ζοζέ Μανουέλ ΜπαρÞζο και ο Κύπριοσ ΥφυπουργÞσ για Ευρωπαϊκά Θέµατα Ανδρέασ ∆. Μαυρογιάννησ. ΣτÞχοσ Þλων είναι η επίλυση του αδιεξÞδου που έχει προκύψει στισ διαπραγµατεύσεισ για τισ πρÞσθετεσ δαπάνεσ του ευρωπαϊκού προϋπολογισµού 2012, έπειτα απÞ την απειλή του βρετανικού βέτο και την άρνηση άλλων χωρών να συµφωνήσουν σε επιµέρουσ θέµατα, Þπωσ την οικονοµική βοήθεια στουσ σεισµÞπληκτουσ στην Ιταλία. Η Επιτροπή θα υποβάλει νέο σχέδιο προϋπολογισµού για το 2013, καθώσ το Συµβούλιο και το Κοινοβούλιο δεν κατάφεραν να συµφωνήσουν πριν απÞ τη λήξη τησ προθεσµίασ στισ 13 Νοεµβρίου.

¢π∞ºø¡π∂™ Το ΕΚ είχε τÞτε αποφασίσει ��α απέχει απÞ την τελική διαπραγµάτευση για τον προϋπολογισµÞ του 2013, λÞγω τησ απουσίασ συµφωνίασ µεταξύ των κρατών µελών για τον κρίσιµο συµπληρωµατικÞ προϋπολογισµÞ του 2012, που είναι απαραίτητοσ για να καταβάλλει η ΕΕ χρήµατα στα κράτη µέλη για δαπάνεσ που έχουν ήδη κάνει για προγράµµατα Þπωσ το “Εrasmus”. Στισ διαπραγµατεύσεισ για τον προϋπολογισµÞ τα τελευταία χρÞνια έχουν κυριαρχήσει οι διαφωνίεσ για τουσ τρÞπουσ υπολογισµού του ύψουσ των πληρωµών. Το ΕΚ ζητά απÞ την οµάδα διαπραγµάτευσήσ του, να προφυλάξει τα κονδύλια του προϋπολογισµού που αφορούν την ανάπτυξη και

την απασχÞληση, και σηµειώνει Þτι οι πÞροι πρέπει να συγκεντρωθούν σε εκείνουσ τουσ τοµείσ στουσ οποίουσ ο προϋπολογισµÞσ τησ ΕΕ µπορεί να προσφέρει πρÞσθετη αξία, ενώ θα µπορούσαν να µειωθούν σε τοµείσ που παρουσιάζουν αδικαιολÞγητεσ καθυστερήσεισ και χαµηλή απορρÞφηση. Οι ευρωβουλευτέσ πιστεύουν Þτι η ΕΕ, στο σηµερινÞ πλαίσιο των πολιτικών λιτÞτητασ, οφείλει να επιδείξει υπευθυνÞτητα και να λάβει άµεσα, συγκεκριµένα µέτρα για την καθιέρωση µιασ ενιαίασ έδρασ για το ΕυρωπαϊκÞ Κοινοβούλιο. Το σχέδιο προϋπολογισµού τησ ΕΕ για το 2013 που προτείνεται απÞ την Επιτροπή ανέρχεται σε 151 δισ. ευρώ σε πιστώσεισ αναλήψεων υποχρεώσεων (ΠΑΥ) (δηλ. +2% σε σύγκριση µε τον προϋπολογισµÞ του 2012) και σε 138 δισ. ευρώ σε πιστώσεισ πληρωµών (ΠΠ) (δηλ. +6,8% σε σύγκριση µε τον προϋπολογισµÞ του 2012. Η αύξηση των πληρωµών είναι σχετικά υψηλή, Þχι µÞνο επειδή τα επίπεδα πληρωµών διατηρήθηκαν σε τεχνητά χαµηλά επίπεδα κατά τα προηγούµενα έτη, λÞγω τησ αναβολήσ των πληρωµών των λογαριασµών, αλλά και λÞγω τησ πραγµατικήσ εκτέλεσησ προγραµµάτων, που αναµένεται Þτι θα αποκτήσει σταθερή ταχύτητα στο τελευταίο έτοσ του τρέχοντοσ Πολυετούσ ∆ηµοσιονοµικού Πλαισίου.

µέλη συµφωνούν µαζί µασ, υπάρχουν ορισµένα που αρνούνται” αυτή την πραγµατικÞτητα. Μια συνέπεια αυτού είναι κράτη µέλη που χρειάζονται τη βοήθειά µασ, Þπωσ η Ελλάδα, η Ισπανία, η Ιταλία, η Πορτογαλία ή η Ιρλανδία να βρεθούν χωρίσ (ευρωπαϊκά) κονδύλια στο τέλοσ του έτουσ. Επιθυµία µασ είναι σε κάθε περίπτωση να αρχίσουµε και πάλι τη διαπραγµάτευση επί πιο ικανοποιητικήσ βάσεωσ µε σκοπÞ να φτάσουµε σε συµφωνία πριν απÞ το τέλοσ ∆εκεµβρίου”.

∆π £∞ °π¡∂π ∞¡...;

£∂ª∞ ∞•π√¶π™∆π∞™

Ο πρÞεδροσ τησ επιτροπήσ Προϋπολογισµών και επικεφαλήσ τησ διαπραγµατευτικήσ οµάδασ του ΕΚ, Γάλλοσ ευρωβουλευτήσ του ΕΚ, Αλέν Λαµασούρ, εξήγησε απÞ την πλευρά του Þτι “ήδη απÞ τον Οκτώβριο δεν υπάρχουν πια κονδύλια για σηµαντικά προγράµµατα Þπωσ το Έρασµοσ, η ανθρωπιστική βοήθεια, το ΚοινωνικÞ Ταµείο, το Ταµείο Συνοχήσ, η ανάπτυξη τησ υπαίθρου και η έρευνα”. “∆υστυχώσ παρÞτι πολλά κράτη

Η πρÞταση των κρατών µελών για µείωση των κονδυλίων για την έρευνα κατά 15% στον προϋπολογισµÞ τησ ΕΕ για το 2013, θέτει υπÞ αµφισβήτηση την αξιοπιστία ακÞµα και των πλέον επίσηµων αποφάσεων των συνÞδων κορυφήσ, δήλωσε ο πρÞεδροσ τησ επιτροπήσ Προϋπολογισµών του ΕΚ, Alain Lamassoure, σηµειώνοντασ Þτι µÞλισ στισ 29 Ιουνίου οι ηγέτεσ τησ Ένωσησ συµφώνησαν στο Σύµφωνο Ανάπτυξησ συµπεριλαµβανοµέ-

νησ τησ διάθεσησ 55 δισ επιπλέον για την έρευνα και την καινοτοµία ωσ µηχανέσ ανάπτυξησ. Μετά τη σύνοδο κορυφήσ, οι κυβερνήσεισ επανήλθαν στο πλαίσιο του συµβουλίου υπουργών µε εντελώσ αντίθετεσ προτάσεισ, ζητώντασ µείωση των κονδυλίων για την έρευνα κατά 15%, των κονδυλίων για τισ µικροµεσαίεσ επιχειρήσεισ κατά 28% και των κρίσιµων κονδυλίων συνοχήσ κατά 1,6 δισ. ευρώ, κατήγγειλε ο Alain Lamassoure (Γαλλία, ΕΛΚ). Ο επικεφαλήσ διαπραγµατευτήσ του ΕΚ για τον προϋπολογισµÞ του 2013, ΙταλÞσ ευρωβουλευτήσ του ΕΛΚ, Giovanni La Via (ΕΛΚ, Ιταλία) σηµείωσε Þτι πρÞκειται για ένα αντικρουÞµενο µήνυµα που στέλνουν αυτέσ οι περικοπέσ σε πολίτεσ και αγορέσ: “πολύ θα ήθελα να καταλάβω γιατί ορισµένεσ κυβερνήσεισ απÞ τη µία ζητούν απÞ την Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή να διαθέσει κονδύλια στη χώρα τουσ και απÞ την άλλη απαντούν µε ένα “Þχι” Þταν τουσ ζητηθεί χρηµατοδÞτηση για τα ίδια αυτά έργα”.

ŒÌÊ·ÛË ÛÙËÓ ÏËÚÔÊÔÚÈ΋ Έκθεση τησ ΚοµισιÞν στο εκπαιδευτικÞ σύστηµα 31 χωρών δείχνει Þτι η διδασκαλία τησ τεχνολογίασ των πληροφοριών, των επιχειρηµατικών δεξιοτήτων και τησ αγωγήσ του πολίτη έχει θεµελιώδη σηµασία για τη σηµερινή αγορά εργασίασ, αλλά τα σχολεία δεν δίνουν επαρκή προσοχή σ’ αυτέσ τισ οριζÞντιεσ δεξιÞτητεσ σε σύγκριση µε τισ βασικέσ δεξιÞτητεσ στα πεδία τησ γλώσσασ, των µαθηµατικών και τησ φυσικήσ. Σύµφωνα µε την ΚοµισιÞν, µÞνον 11

ευρωπαϊκέσ χώρεσ (το Βέλγιο-φλαµανδική κοινÞτητα, η Βουλγαρία, η Εσθονία, η Ιρλανδία, η Γαλλία, η Λετονία, η Λιθουανία, η Μάλτα, η Πολωνία, η Σλοβενία και η Φινλανδία) έχουν τυποποιηµένεσ διαδικασίεσ για την αξιολÞγηση των δεξιοτήτων στον τοµέα τησ αγωγήσ του πολίτη, που έχει ωσ σκοπÞ την ανάπτυξη τησ κριτικήσ σκέψησ και τησ ενεργού συµµετοχήσ στο σχολείο και την κοινωνία. Αντίθετα, τέτοιου είδουσ αξιολÞγηση δεν

υφίσταται καθÞλου για την επιχειρηµατικÞτητα και τισ δεξιÞτητεσ στον τοµέα τησ τεχνολογίασ των πληροφοριών σε καµία απÞ τισ 31 χώρεσ που πήραν µέροσ στην έρευνα (τα 27 κράτη µέλη τησ ΕΕ, την Κροατία, την Ισλανδία, τη Νορβηγία και την Τουρκία). Η έκθεση περιγράφει επίσησ την πρÞοδο που έχει συντελεστεί σε έξι απÞ τισ οκτώ βασικέσ ικανÞτητεσ που ορίζονται σε επίπεδο ΕΕ για τη διά βίου µάθηση σε Þ,τι αφορά γνώση, δεξιÞτητεσ και συµπεριφορέσ.

™ ø ™ ∆ ∂ ÙÔ ÚfiÁÚ·ÌÌ· Erasmus



ΠροσωπικÞτητεσ απÞ Þλεσ τισ χώρεσ τησ Ευρώπησ κινητοποιήθηκαν για τη σωτηρία του προγράµµατοσ Erasmus απÞ το οποίο χρηµατοδοτούνται υποτροφίεσ φοιτητών σε άλλεσ χώρεσ. Σε ανοιχτή επιστολή τουσ προσ τουσ Ευρωπαίουσ ηγέτεσ, άνθρωποι του πολιτισµού, του αθλητισµού και των γραµµάτων υπενθυµίζουν Þτι απÞ το 1987 το πρÞγραµµα Erasmus επέτρεψε σε περίπου 3 εκατοµµύρια νέουσ να σπουδάσουν στο εξωτερικÞ και να επιµορφωθούν για να βρουν “καλύτερη δουλειά”.Υπογραµµίζουν Þτι η οικονοµική κρίση πλήττει κυρίωσ τουσ νέουσ και Þτι ένασ στουσ πέντε νέουσ Ευρωπαίουσ είναι άνεργοσ. Η Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή έχει ζητήσει απÞ τουσ “27” να εγκρίνουν µια πρÞσθετη χρηµατοδÞτηση ύψουσ 8,9 δισ ευρώ προκειµένου να στηριχθούν διάφορα προγράµµατα, µεταξύ των οποίων και το Erasmus για το οποίο απαιτούνται λιγÞτερα απÞ 100 εκ. για να ανταποκριθεί στισ υποχρεώσεισ.

ΑπαισιÞδοξοι είναι οι Βρετανοί, οι Γερµανοί και οι Γάλλοι για το µέλλον τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ένωσησ µε βάση δηµοσκÞπηση. Στην πλειοψηφία τουσ οι κάτοικοι και στισ τρεισ αυτέσ χώρεσ, εµφανίζονται απαισιÞδοξοι για την ευρωπαϊκή προοπτική. Παράλληλα, η πλειοψηφία των Βρετανών πολιτών τάσσεται υπέρ τησ αποχώρησησ τησ χώρασ απÞ την Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση, µε το 49% των Βρετανών να δηλώνει Þτι θα ψήφιζε υπέρ τησ αποχώρησησ τησ χώρασ απÞ την ΕΕ, ενώ το 28% υπέρ τησ παραµονήσ τησ και το 17% αναποφάσιστο. Αντιθέτωσ, το 57% των Γερµανών τάσσονται υπέρ τησ παραµονήσ τησ χώρασ στην ΕΕ, το 25% επιθυµεί την αποχώρησή τησ και το 9% εµφανίζεται αναποφάσιστο. Στη Γαλλία, το 43% των ερωτηθέντων δήλωσε Þτι επιθυµεί να παραµείνει η χώρα στην ΕΕ, το 32% να αποχωρήσει και το 10% είναι αναποφάσιστο.

Οι ελεγκτέσ των οικονοµικών ΕΕ ζητούν απÞ τα κράτη µέλη και την Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή να βελτιώσουν τη διαχείριση των δαπανών τουσ, αφού συµπέραναν Þτι για το 2011 οι πληρωµέσ που έγιναν περιείχαν ποσοστÞ σφάλµατοσ που ανέρχεται στο 3,9% του συνÞλου του προϋπολογισµού τησ ΕΕ. Σύµφωνα µε το ΕυρωπαϊκÞ ΕλεγκτικÞ Συνέδριο (ΕΕΣ) που ελέγχει τα οικονοµικά τησ ΕΕ οι λογαριασµοί του 2011 παρέχουν ακριβοδίκαιη εικÞνα τÞσο τησ οικονοµικήσ κατάστασησ τησ ΕΕ Þσο και των αποτελεσµάτων των πράξεων και των ταµειακών ροών τησ για το εν λÞγω οικονοµικÞ έτοσ. Σηµειώνει µεν Þτι τα έσοδα και οι αναλήψεισ υποχρεώσεων δεν περιείχαν ουσιώδη σφάλµατα, αλλά αναφέρει Þτι αντιθέτωσ, οι πληρωµέσ περιείχαν ουσιώδη σφάλµατα και το εκτιµώµενο ποσοστÞ σφάλµατοσ ανέρχεται σε 3,9% για το σύνολο του προϋπολογισµού τησ ΕΕ.

21 ΝΟΕΜΒΡΙΟΥ, 2012


6/18 | ∆ΙΕΘΝΗ

ªÂ ÙÔ ‚ϤÌÌ· Û Eurogroup Î·È ∏¶∞ ÙÔ Â˘ÚÒ ™Ù¿ÛË ·Ó·ÌÔÓ‹˜ Á‡Úˆ ·fi Ù· 1,28 ÁÈ· ÙËÓ ÈÛÔÙÈÌ›· ∂˘ÚÒ – ¢ÔÏ·Ú›Ô˘ ·Ó·Ì¤ÓÔÓÙ·˜ Î·È ¿ÏÈ ÙȘ ÂÍÂÏ›ÍÂȘ ·fi ∂˘ÚÒË Î·È ∏¶∞ fiÛÔ ·ÊÔÚ¿ Eurogroup Î·È Fiscal Cliff ¡›ÎÔ˜ ªÈ¯·ËÏ›‰Ë˜ Foreign Exchange Analyst Email: Σταθεροποιητικά κινήθηκε την εβδοµάδα που µασ πέρασε η ισοτιµία Ευρώ - ∆ολαρίου η οποία Þµωσ συνεχίζει να διαπραγµατεύεται κάτω απÞ τα πολύ κρίσιµα σηµεία του 1.28. Συγκεκριµένα η ισοτιµία απÞ τα 1.2700 τησ περασµένησ εβδοµάδοσ αν και αρχικά υποχώρησε µέχρι και τα 1.2660 στην συνέχεια ενισχύθηκε µέχρι και τα 1.2780 Þπου και κινείται τισ τελευταίεσ ηµέρεσ. Βασικά θα λέγαµε πωσ ο τÞνοσ αισιοδοξίασ που βγαίνει απÞ τα λεγÞµενα Ευρωπαίων αξιωµατούχων για τελεσίδικη λύση στο ΕλληνικÞ ζήτηµα κρατάει το Ευρώ κοντά στα 1.2800. Η βιωσιµÞτητα του ελληνικού χρέουσ είναι το φλέγον θέµα πλέον για τουσ Ευρωπαίουσ οι οποίοι αφού εδώ και τρία χρÞνια βύθισαν την Ελλάδα σε ένα πηγάδι χρέουσ και ύφεσησ χωρίσ πάτο τώρα θυµήθηκαν κατÞπιν εορτήσ πωσ το χρέοσ δεν είναι βιώσιµο. Ίσωσ οι Ευρωπαίοι προσφέρουν στην Ελλάδα µια δίχρονη επιµήκυνση ακÞµα και µειωµένα επιτÞκια αλλά αυτÞ δεν είναι παρά µÞνο µια σταγÞνα στον ωκεανÞ. Το παιχνίδι Þσο αφορά την Ελλάδα έχει χαθεί προ πολλού και πλέον το µÞνο που σώζει την Ελλάδα είναι ένα πολύ επιθετικÞ κούρεµα του χρέουσ και σταδιακή απεµπλοκή απÞ τα εγκληµατικά µνηµÞνια σκληρήσ λιτÞτητασ. Επειδή Þσο και να µειωθεί το χρέοσ µιασ χώρασ αν η χώρα αυτή δεν αναπτύσσεται είναι απλÞσ θέµα χρÞνου να παράγει και πάλι νέο χρέοσ. Και η Ελλάδα Þχι µÞνο δεν αναπτύσσεται αλλά συρρικνώνεται µε ρυθµούσ τριτοκοσµικήσ χώρασ. Βεβαίωσ η γενική διευθύντρια του ∆ιεθνούσ Νοµισµατικού Ταµείου Κριστίν Λαγκάρντ προερχÞµενη στο Eurogroup δηλώ-

νει αποφασισµένη να θέσει το πλαίσιο για οριστική λύση στα ζητήµατα που αφορούν την Ελλάδα, τη στιγµή που εντÞσ του Εκτελεστικού Συµβουλίου αλλά και µεταξύ των εµπειρογνωµÞνων του Ταµείου, επικρατεί προβληµατισµÞσ για τη διαχείριση τησ ελληνικήσ υπÞθεσησ και τη βιωσιµÞτητα του χρέουσ τησ χώρασ Ùπωσ µεταδίδουν ξένα ΜΜΕ επικαλούµενα πληροφορίεσ απÞ την Ουάσιγκτον, η κα Λαγκάρντ φέρεται να επιµένει µεν στην επίτευξη του στÞχου, το ελληνικÞ χρέοσ να βρίσκεται στο 120% του ΑΕΠ έωσ το 2020, αλλά µπροστά στον κίνδυνο µιασ ευρύτερησ αποσταθεροποίησησ που θα προκαλούσε η ευθεία σύγκρουση µε την Ευρώπη και µια νέα αποτυχία στη λήψη απÞφασησ για την Ελλάδα, συζητεί την αποδοχή µιασ λύσησ που, σε πρώτη φάση, δεν θα περιλαµβάνει «κούρεµα» του χρέουσ, κάτι που εκτιµάται Þτι θα επανεξετασθεί µετά τισ γερµανικέσ εκλογέσ, Þταν θα είναι πολιτικά εφικτÞ υπÞ την προϋπÞθεση Þτι η Ελλάδα θα έχει αρχίσει να εφαρµÞζει µε επιτυχία τισ µεταρρυθµίσεισ. Σε περίπτωση που επιτευχθεί συµφωνία, το ΕκτελεστικÞ Συµβούλιο του ∆ΝΤ θα συνεδριάσει για να εκταµιεύσει την επÞµενη δÞση στισ αρχέσ ∆εκεµβρίου, το πιθανÞτερο στισ 7 του µηνÞσ, ενδεχοµένωσ και λίγεσ ηµέρεσ αργÞτερα, εάν η οριστική απÞφαση του Eurogroup προκύψει τελικά την άλλη ∆ευτέρα. Μια εξέλιξη που σαφώσ δίνει και πάλι προσωρινέσ ανάσεσ σε χρηµαταγορέσ και Ευρώ. ΑπÞ την άλλη Þµωσ δεν αποτελεί τελεσίδικη λύση και η αβεβαιÞτητα και οι ανησυχίεσ πέριξ βιωσιµÞτητασ του ελληνικού χρέουσ θα επανέλθουν λεία συντÞµωσ. ΕκτÞσ του ελληνικού ζητήµατοσ αισιÞδοξα µηνύµατα φαίνεται να βγαίνουν και απÞ ΗΠΑ για λύση του περίφηµου ζητήµατοσ του «δηµοσιονοµικού γκρεµού». ΘετικÞ κλίµα που δηµιούργησε η πρώτη συνάντηση των ηγετών του κογκρέσου. «Πιστεύω πωσ το πλαίσιο που σκιαγραφήσαµε στη σηµερινή συνάντηση είναι σύµφωνο µε το κάλεσµα του προέδρου για

µία δίκαιη και ισορροπηµένη προσέγγιση,» δήλωσε ο επικεφαλήσ των Ρεπουµπλικάνων στη Βουλή John Boehner µετά τη συνάντηση τησ Παρασκευήσ στο ΛευκÞ Οίκο. ΑπÞ την πλευρά τησ η επικεφαλήσ των ∆ηµοκρατικών στην Βουλή Nancy Pelosi σηµείωσε πωσ η συνάντηση ήταν εποικοδοµητική και πωσ πρέπει να τεθούν τα Χριστούγεννα ωσ διορία για την επίτευξη συµφωνίασ. Την αισιοδοξία του για την πορεία των διαπραγµατεύσεων εξέφρασε και ο πρÞεδροσ των ΗΠΑ Barrack Obama ο οποίοσ την Κυριακή δήλωσε σε συνέντευξη Τύπου στην ΜπανγκÞγκ πωσ είναι βέβαιοσ πωσ η δηµοσιονοµική κατάσταση τησ χώρασ µπορεί να αντιµετωπιστεί. Τεχνικά Þσο η ισοτιµία σε εβδοµαδιαία βάση κρατάει τα επίπεδα του 1.28 η βραχυπρÞθεσµη πτωτική τάση τησ ισοτιµίασ διατηρείται. Βεβαίωσ Þπωσ αναφέραµε και στο τελευταίο µασ άρθρο οι πολιτικοοικονοµικέσ εξελίξεισ τρέχουν και η µεταβλητÞτητα στην ισοτιµία Þσο πλησιάζουµε το τέλοσ του έτουσ θα αυξάνεται και οι ακραίεσ διακυµάνσεισ στην ισοτιµία δεν µπορούν να αποκλειστούν.


Fitch: ∞ÈÛÈfi‰ÔÍÔÈ ÔÈ ∂˘Úˆ·›ÔÈ ÂÂÓ‰˘Ù¤˜ Συγκρατηµένα αισιÞδοξοι για την επίλυση τησ κρίσησ χρέουσ στην ευρωζώνη, εµφανίζονται οι Ευρωπαίοι επενδυτέσ, καθώσ θεωρούν πωσ οι πρÞσφατεσ πολιτικέσ πρωτοβουλίεσ δείχνουν πωσ έχουν γίνει σηµαντικά βήµατα παρά τουσ κινδύνουσ που παραµένουν. Το συµπέρασµα αυτÞ προέκυψε απÞ την τριµηνιαία έρευνα τησ Fitch, ΕιδικÞτερα, το 86% των ερωτηθέντων δήλωσε πωσ οι πρÞσφατεσ πρωτοβουλίεσ που έχουν αναληφθεί, Þπωσ αυτή τησ υπÞ προϋποθέσεισ αγοράσ οµολÞγων των κρατών τησ ευρωζώνησ απÞ την ΕΚΤ και τα σχέδια για τραπεζική ενοποίηση, αποτελούν σηµαντικά βήµατα προσ την επίλυση τησ κρίσησ χρέουσ στην ευρωζώνη. Το 81% των συµµετεχÞντων στην έρευνα αναγνωρίζει ωστÞσο πωσ παραµένουν σηµαντικοί οικονοµικοί, χρηµατοπιστωτικοί και πολιτικοί κίνδυνοι. Το υπÞλοιπο 14% των Ευρωπαίων επενδυτών που έλαβαν µέροσ στη δηµοσκÞπηση, εµφανίστηκαν περισσÞτερο απαισιÞδοξοι, καθώσ σύµφωνα µε αυτούσ οι πρωτοβουλίεσ που έχουν αναληφθεί θα έχουν περιορισµένη επίδραση, ενώ εκτιµούν πωσ θα επανέλθουν οι πιέσεισ των αγορών σε Ισπανία και Ιταλία. Σηµειώνεται Þτι η τριµηνιαία έρευνα διεξήχθη µεταξύ 2 Οκτωβρίου και 6 Νοεµβρίου και σε αυτήν ερωτήθηκαν managers ιδρυµάτων µε συνολικά κεφάλαια περί τα 7,4 τρισ. δολάρια.

Ο ΙταλÞσ πρωθυπουργÞσ Μάριο ΜÞντι δήλωσε Þτι η ευρωζώνη ξεπερνάει την κρίση χρέουσ και Þτι οι χώρεσ µέλη είναι αποφασισµένεσ να διατηρήσουν το ενιαίο νÞµισµα. “Το ευρώ είναι κάτι περισσÞτερο απÞ ένα νÞµισµα, είναι ένα σύµβολο τησ ευρωπαϊκήσ ολοκλήρωσησ που οι ευρωπαϊκέσ κυβερνήσεισ είναι αποφασισµένεσ να διατηρήσουν και να ενισχύσουν”, σηµείωσε. “Το τελευταίο εξάµηνο, έχουµε σταθεροποιήσει τισ χρηµατοπιστωτικέσ αγορέσ δηµιουργώντασ ένα στέρεο και διαρκέσ ταµείο αρωγήσ, τον ΕυρωπαϊκÞ ΜηχανισµÞ ΣταθερÞτητασ”, πρÞσθεσε ο ΙταλÞσ πρωθυπουργÞσ. “ΑπÞ την πλευρά τησ, η Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα δηµιούργησε ένα πρÞγραµµα αγοράσ οµολÞγων για να διασφαλιστεί Þτι το κÞστοσ τησ χρηµατοδÞτησησ των κυβερνήσεων είναι ανάλογο µε τα οικονοµικά θεµέλια και τισ προσπάθειεσ µεταρρύθµισησ” που καταβάλλουν, πρÞσθεσε.

“Τον ερχÞµενο µήνα, θα υιοθετήσουµε έναν συγκεκριµένο οδικÞ χάρτη για να ενισχυθεί η δοµή τησ οικονοµικήσ και νοµισµατικήσ µασ ένωσησ, αρχίζοντασ απÞ έναν µηχανισµÞ ενιαίασ επίβλεψησ για τισ τράπεζεσ για να µπορούµε στη συνέχεια να αναγνωρίζουµε και να ρυθµίζουµε νωρίτερα τα προβλήµατα”, κατέληξε ο ΙταλÞσ πρωθυπουργÞσ.

H ‚ÂÏÙ›ˆÛË ÙÔ˘ ÂÂÓ‰˘ÙÈÎÔ‡ Îϛ̷ÙÔ˜ ÛÙËÚ›˙ÂÈ ÙÔ Â˘ÚÒ ¢ÔÍԇϷ ¶·Û¯·Ï›‰Ô˘ Treasury Division, Alpha Bank Cyprus Ltd Το ευρωπαϊκÞ νÞµισµα κατέγραψε στισ αρχέσ τησ εβδοµάδασ υψηλÞ ($1,2820) 14 ηµερών έναντι του δολαρίου επηρεαζÞµενο θετικά απÞ τη σηµαντική βελτίωση του επενδυτικού κλίµατοσ ενÞψει τησ αναµενÞµενησ εκταµίευσησ τησ νέασ δÞσησ προσ την Ελλάδα. Η σύσκεψη των Υπουργών Οικονοµικών τησ Ευρωζώνησ αναµένεται να δώσει το πράσινο φωσ για την εκταµίευση ποσού συνολικού ύψουσ έωσ 44 δισ ευρώ έωσ το α’ δεκαήµερο του ∆εκεµβρίου για τη χρηµατοδοτική στήριξη τησ Ελλάδασ. Εκτιµάται Þτι η εκταµίευση τησ δÞσησ θα πραγµατοποιηθεί εφÞσον η Ελλάδα έχει εκπληρώσει Þλα τα προαπαι-

τούµενα ενώ θα συνεχιστούν οι συζητήσεισ επί προτεινÞµενων µεθÞδων διαχείρισησ του δηµοσίου χρέουσ τησ χώρασ. Η αισιοδοξία Þτι θα επιτευχθεί συµφωνία στο κογκρέσο για τη διαχείριση τησ δηµοσιονοµικήσ κατάστασησ στισ ΗΠΑ επιδρά θετικά στη διάθεση για ανάληψη κινδύνου και στο ευρώ. Ο ΠρÞεδροσ των ΗΠΑ εξέφρασε την αισιοδοξία του Þτι θα επιτευχθεί συµφωνία σχετικά µε την πολιτική δηµοσιονοµικήσ προσαρµογήσ προκειµένου να αποτραπούν οι αυτÞµατεσ αυξήσεισ φορολογίασ και περικοπέσ δαπανών στισ αρχέσ του 2013 ύψουσ $607 δισ. Προσωρινή αρνητική επίπτωση είχε στην ισοτιµία ευρώ/δολάριο η υποβάθµιση τησ πιστοληπτικήσ ικανÞτητασ τησ Γαλλίασ απÞ τον οίκο αξιολÞγησησ Moody?s κατά µία βαθµίδα, απÞ Αaa σε Aa1 µε αρνητική προοπτική. Στην έκθεση του οίκου αξιολÞγησησ αναφέρεται Þτι η εξέλιξη τησ δηµοσιονοµικήσ κατάστασησ τησ Γαλλίασ είναι αβέ-

βαιη, κυρίωσ λÞγω τησ επιδείνωσησ τησ οικονοµικήσ προοπτικήσ σε βραχυπρÞθεσµο και µακροπρÞθεσµο ορίζοντα. Ο οίκοσ επισηµαίνει Þτι η µακροπρÞθεσµη οικονοµική προοπτική τησ Γαλλίασ επηρεάζεται αρνητικά απÞ τισ διαρθρωτικέσ προκλήσεισ που θα πρέπει να αντιµετωπισθούν. Τονίζει επίσησ, τη µεγάλη έκθεση τησ Γαλλίασ στισ περιφερειακέσ οικονοµίεσ τησ Ευρώπησ και τισ υποχρεώσεισ που προκύπτουν απÞ την ανάγκη στήριξησ οικονοµιών τησ Ευρωζώνησ. Σε µια άλλη εξέλιξη, θετικά επηρεάστηκε το γιεν απÞ τον περιορισµÞ τησ διάθεσησ για ανάληψη κινδύνου µετά την ολοκλήρωση τησ διήµερησ σύσκεψήσ τησ Τράπεζασ τησ Ιαπωνίασ. Στην εν λÞγω σύσκεψη η Τράπεζα τησ Ιαπωνίασ διατήρησε αµετάβλητα το επιτÞκιο αναφοράσ (0-0,10%) και το ύψοσ των προγραµµάτων αγοράσ τίτλων (66 τρισ γιεν) και παροχήσ ρευστÞτητασ (25 τρισ γιεν).

21 ΝΟΕΜΒΡΙΟΥ, 2012


ΕΛΛΑ∆Α | 7/19

™˘Ì‚È‚·ÛÙÈ΋ χÛË ÁÈ· ÙËÓ ∂ÏÏ¿‰· ÛÙÔ Eurogroup «Η Ελλάδα έχει εκπληρώσει τισ υποχρεώσεισ τησ και πιστεύω πωσ µÞλισ ρυθµιστούν κάποιεσ αποµένουσεσ εκκρεµÞτητεσ θα λάβει την επÞµενη δÞση των δανείων», δήλωσε ο πρÞεδροσ του Eurogroup, κ. Ζαν Κλοντ Γιούνκερ, την ώρα που γίνονταν προσπάθειεσ προσ την εξεύρεσησ µιασ συµβιβαστικήσ λύσησ ανάµεσα στο ∆ιεθνέσ ΝοµισµατικÞ Ταµείο (∆ΝΤ) και τισ χώρεσ τησ Ευρωζώνησ για τη βιωσιµÞτητα του ελληνικού χρέουσ. Ο κ. Γιούνκερ ανέµενε να επιτευχθεί µια συµφωνία επί του θέµατοσ τησ βιωσιµÞτητασ του ελληνικού χρέουσ, για το οποίο, ωσ γνωστÞν, υπάρχει διάσταση απÞψεων τησ Ευρώπησ µε το ∆ΝΤ, αναφορικά µε τισ χρηµατοδοτικέσ ανάγκεσ. Οι εµπειρογνώµονεσ των οικονοµικών επιτελείων των χωρών τησ Eυρωζώνησ στην τελευταία τουσ συνεδρία αναζήτησαν έναν συνδυασµÞ «τεχνικών λύσεων» για την κάλυψη του λεγÞµενου χρηµατοδοτικού κενού, ύψουσ 32,5 δισ. ευρώ ωσ το 2016, αλλά και για την ελάφρυνση των δανείων προσ την Ελλάδα.

Αναφορικά µε την αντιπαράθεση του ∆ΝΤ µε τισ χώρεσ τησ Ευρωζώνησ για το θέµα τησ βιωσιµÞτητασ του ελληνικού δηµÞσιου χρέουσ, στην Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα εκτιµούν Þτι Þλεσ οι πλευρέσ θα υποχωρήσουν, ωσ προσ τισ απαιτήσεισ τουσ και τελικά θα επέλθει ο συµβιβασµÞσ. Επιπλέον, στην ΕΚΤ εκτιµούν Þτι η λύση του Eurogroup για το ελληνικÞ χρέοσ θα περιέχει «λίγο απÞ Þλα». Σε Þ,τι αφορά στην έγκριση τησ επÞµενησ δÞσησ, θεωρείται Þτι θα δοθεί η τελική έγκριση, µέσω τηλεδιάσκεψησ, στισ 26 Νοεµβρίου ή και αργÞτερα. Η απÞφαση θα πρέπει να λάβει την έγκριση ορισµένων εθνικών κοινοβουλίων, εκ των οποίων και τησ Γερµανίασ, ούτωσ ώστε να εκταµιευθεί περί τισ αρχέσ ∆εκεµβρίου.

™∆π™ 5 ¢∂∫∂ªµƒπ√À ∏ ¢√™∏ Η εκταµίευση τησ δÞσησ των 44 δισ ευρώ προσ την Ελλάδα, πιστεύεται Þτι θα γίνει στισ 5 ∆εκεµβρίου µε την προϋπÞθεση Þτι θα πληρούνται Þλοι οι εναποµείναντεσ

Þροι, σύµφωνα µε ευρωπαϊκέσ πηγέσ. Η Ελλάδα θα πρέπει επίσησ να αποδείξει τη δέσµευσή τησ να υιοθετήσει «τισ προηγούµενεσ ενέργειεσ», ένα λεπτοµερέσ πακέτο οικονοµικών µεταρρυθµίσεων, προτού δοθεί στη χώρα η δÞση του δανείου.

Τέλοσ, σε Þ,τι αφορά στο ενδεχÞµενο περαιτέρω αναδιάρθρωσησ του ελληνικού χρέουσ, στο οποίο επιµένει το ∆ΝΤ, οικονοµικοί και πολιτικοί αναλυτέσ εκτιµούν Þτι είναι ακÞµα πολύ νωρίσ για να ληφθούν τέτοιου είδουσ πολιτικέσ αποφάσεισ.

«∫·Ù¤‚·Û·Ó ÚÔÏ¿» 68.000 ÂȯÂÈÚ‹ÛÂȘ Στο υψηλÞτερο ποσοστÞ που έχει σηµειωθεί φτάνει ο αριθµÞσ των «λουκέτων» στην Ελλάδα. Το 2013 εκτιµάται Þτι θα κλείσουν 20% λιγÞτερεσ επιχειρήσεισ καθώσ το πρώτο κύµα των επιπτώσεων τησ κρίσησ δείχνει να ολοκληρώνεται και πλέον οι περισσÞτερεσ απÞ τισ εταιρείεσ που παρέµειναν «ζωντανέσ», έχουν προσαρµοστεί. Εν τούτοισ, τα προβλήµατα παραµένουν µεγάλα, µε την έλλειψη ρευστÞτητασ και τη συνεχιζÞµενη κάµψη των πωλήσεων να αποτελούν τουσ σηµαντικÞτερουσ κινδύνουσ για τη βιωσιµÞτητα των εταιρειών.

ΩστÞσο, η πρÞβλεψη για λιγÞτερα λουκέτα προκύπτει απÞ τισ απαντήσεισ των ίδιων των εταιρειών σε έρευνα, σύµφωνα µε την οποία, σε ποσοστÞ 79% οι µικρέσ επιχειρήσεισ (οµÞρρυθµεσ επιχειρήσεισ- ετερÞρρυθµεσ επιχειρήσεισ) και σε ποσοστÞ 88% οι µεγάλεσ επιχειρήσεισ (ΑΕ-ΕΠΕ), θεωρούν απίθανο να κλείσουν µέσα στο 2013. Το 45,8% των επιχειρήσεων προβλέπουν πάντωσ Þτι δεν θα καταφέρουν να εκπληρώσουν τισ υποχρεώσεισ τουσ µέχρι το τέλοσ του χρÞνου, ένα στοιχείο που δείχνει Þτι το πρÞβληµα τησ έλλειψησ ρευστÞτητασ

∫Ï›ÓÔ˘Ó Ù· Costa Coffee ÛÙËÓ ∂ÏÏ¿‰· Λουκέτο στα δέκα καταστήµατα Costa Coffee στην Ελλάδα βάζει η εταιρεία «The Greek Coffee Company A.E.» που αντιπροσώπευε στη χώρα τη γνωστή βρετανική αλυσίδα. ΤÞσο το κατάστηµα τησ ΛεωφÞρου Κηφισίασ, στο Monumental Plaza, στο Μαρούσι, στο εµπορικÞ κέντρο Avenue αλλά και τα υπÞλοιπα στο κέντρο τησ Αθήνασ και

στα νÞτια προάστια είναι ήδη κλειστά. ΕκπρÞσωποι τησ εταιρείασ επιβεβαίωσαν την αναστολή λειτουργίασ των Costa, αναφέροντασ πωσ το εγχείρηµα δεν ήταν πλέον βιώσιµο παρÞτι έγινε κάθε προσπάθεια να συνεχίσει να λειτουργεί και ήδη έχουν ξεκινήσει διαδικασίεσ για την πώληση παγίων. Τα Costa Coffe ξεκίνησαν να λειτουργούν στην Ελλάδα απÞ το 2007.

√√™∞: ¶ÚÒÙË Ë ∂ÏÏ¿‰· Û ηÓÈÛÙ¤˜ Î·È ÙÚÔ¯·›· Στην Ελλάδα η οποία δεν κάνει παιδιά, κατοικούν οι περισσÞτεροι καπνιστέσ στην Ευρώπη ενώ έχει αριθµÞ ρεκÞρ και στα θανατηφÞρα τροχαία δυστυχήµατα. ΑυτÞ έδειξε έρευνα του ΟΟΣΑ “ Η υγεία στην Ευρώπη µε µια µατιά” σε 35 κράτη. Συγκεκριµένα, µε το 19,1% του πληθυσµού τησ χώρασ έχει ξεπεράσει το 65ο έτοσ τησ ηλικίασ του, οι Έλληνεσ κατακτούν το χάλκινο µετάλλιο µετά τη Γερµανία και την Ιταλία. Αντίστοιχα, ανησυχητικά είναι και τα στοιχεία για τισ γεννήσεισ, καθώσ το 2010 καταγράφτηκαν 10,1 γεννήσεισ ανά 1000 ανθρώπουσ, ενώ σε κάθε Ελληνίδα αναλογούν µÞλισ 1,5 γεννήσεισ. ΤαυτÞχρονα, 13,6 ανά 1000 ανθρώπουσ χάνουν τη ζωή τουσ ετησίωσ απÞ τροχαία δυστυχήµατα, αριθµÞσ που κατατάσσει την Ελλάδα στη δεύτερη θέση µετά τη Ρουµανία.

Ùµωσ τι και αν οι Έλληνεσ είναι οι πιο θεριακλήδεσ; Τα ποσοστά καρκίνου των πνευµÞνων δεν αγγίζουν πρωτιέσ στη λίστα των 35 χωρών. Σύµφωνα µε τα στοιχεία, 73 άνθρωποι ανά 100.000 πεθαίνουν κάθε χρÞνο απÞ καρκίνο των πνευµÞνων. Ùσον αφορά τισ θανατηφÞρεσ περιπτώσεισ καρκίνου του µαστού, η Ελλάδα βρίσκεται στη 7η θέση απÞ το τέλοσ τησ λίστασ µε 21,1 γυναίκεσ στισ 100.000 να χάνουν ετησίωσ τη µάχη. Την ίδια ώρα οι δαπάνεσ για την υγεία µειώθηκαν στο 6,9%. ΠαρÞλα αυτά κατέχουµε την υψηλÞτερη αναλογία γιατρών και πληθυσµÞ στην Ευρώπη, µε 6,1 ειδικούσ ανά χίλιουσ κατοίκουσ. Βέβαια οι κλίνεσ που αναλογούν σε 1000 κατοίκουσ αγγίζουν µÞλισ τισ 4,9 δείχνοντασ Þτι η Ελλάδα βρίσκεται πολύ πιο κάτω απÞ τον ευρωπαϊκÞ µέσο Þρο.

παραµένει ακÞµη έντονο. Σηµειώνεται Þτι την περίοδο 2011-2012, εκτιµάται Þτι «κατέβασαν ρολά» συνολικά 68.000 επιχειρήσεισ. Για να αντιµετωπίσουν τισ συνέπειεσ τησ κρίσησ, οι περισσÞτερεσ απÞ τισ εταιρείεσ περιορίζουν το κÞστοσ λειτουργίασ (17,8%) προχωρούν σε προσφορέσ και εκπτώσεισ τιµών (15,2%), αλλάζουν προµηθευτέσ (13,2%). Σύµφωνα µε την έκθεση φαίνεται Þτι η ανεργία πλέον σαρώνει το ελληνικÞ εµπÞριο, καθώσ ο τοµέασ είναι αυτÞσ που τροφοδοτεί πλέον τισ απώλειεσ θέσεων εργασίασ.

Μέσα στο 2012 χάθηκαν συνολικά 93.500 θέσεισ απασχÞλησησ στο εµπÞριο, αριθµÞσ που αντιστοιχεί στο 24% των συνολικών θέσεων που χάθηκαν στην ελληνική οικονοµία, µεταξύ β’ τριµήνου 2011-β΄ τριµήνου 20122,(361.000 θέσεισ εργασίασ συνολικά). Οι προβλέψεισ των εταιρειών για την κερδοφορία του 2013 είναι ιδιαίτερα απαισιÞδοξεσ, καθώσ επτά στισ 10 µικρέσ επιχειρήσεισ και τέσσερισ στισ 10 µεγάλεσ, προβλέπουν ακÞµη χειρÞτερα µεγέθη για την επÞµενη χρονιά.

Aegean: ¶Ù‹ÛÂȘ Ì Singapore Airlines ΑπÞ την 1η ∆εκεµβρίου 2012 οι πελάτεσ τησ Singapore Airlines θα µπορούν να πετούν προσ Αθήνα και Θεσσαλονίκη, χάρη στη συµφωνία συνεργασίασ για πτήσεισ κοινού κωδικού µε την Aegean Airlines, η οποία συµµετέχει µαζί µε τη Singapore Airlines στο δίκτυο τησ Star Alliance. Στο πλαίσιο τησ συµφωνίασ η SIA θα προσθέσει τα διακριτικά «SQ» στισ πτήσεισ τησ Aegean µεταξύ Αθήνασ και Φρανκφούρτησ, Λονδίνου, Μιλάνο και Μονάχου, καθώσ και στισ πτήσεισ µεταξύ Θεσσαλονίκησ και Φρανκφούρτησ και Μονάχου. Αντίστοιχα, τα διακριτικά τησ Aegean «A3» θα τοποθετηθούν στισ πτήσεισ τησ SIA µεταξύ Σιγκαπούρησ και Φρανκφούρτησ, Μιλάνου και Μονάχου, καθώσ και στισ πτήσεισ µέσω Σιγκαπούρησ προσ Μελβούρνη και Σύδνεϋ. Οι πτήσεισ κοινού κωδικού µετά την προσθήκη των διακριτικών τησ Aegean στισ πτήσεισ τησ SIA θα ξεκινήσουν µÞλισ εξασφαλιστούν οι προβλεπÞµενεσ εγκρίσεισ. Η έκδοση εισιτηρίων για πτήσεισ κοινού κωδικού έχει ξεκινήσει και αφορά τισ πτήσεισ που θα πραγµατοποιούνται απÞ 1ησ ∆εκεµβρίου 2012.

ŒÎÏÂÈÛ 16 ηٷÛÙ‹Ì·Ù· Ë Citibank Στην απÞφαση να κλείσει 16 υποκαταστήµατα στην Ελλάδα, περιορίζοντασ τισ δραστηριÞτητέσ τησ στην ελληνική αγορά, προχώρησε η Citibank. Παράλληλα, εδώ και αρκετÞ καιρÞ “τρέχει” πρÞγραµµα εθελουσίασ εξÞδου µε στÞχο τη µείωση άνω των 200 θέσεων. Η απÞφαση τησ διοίκησησ κινείται, σύµφωνα µε πληροφορίεσ, στο πλαίσιο µείωσησ των λειτουργικών δαπανών, σε µια προσπάθεια να παραµείνει η τράπεζα ενεργή και να εξυπηρετεί απρÞσκοπτα τουσ πελάτεσ τησ. Με το κλείσιµο των 16 υποκαταστηµάτων η Citibank περιορίζει τισ δραστηριÞτητέσ τησ

στην Αθήνα, αφού το µÞνο υποκατάστηµα εκτÞσ Αθηνών που θα συνεχίσει να λειτουργεί είναι αυτÞ τησ Θεσσαλονίκησ. Στα 16 καταστήµατα συµπεριλαµβάνονται και σηµεία εξυπηρέτησησ στην Αθήνα, τα οποία θα “συγχωνευθούν” µε πιο κεντρικά καταστήµατα. Μετά την ολοκλήρωση του σχεδίου, η τράπεζα θα διαθέτει συνολικά 21 καταστήµατα στην Ελλάδα, εκ των οποίων τα 20 στην Αθήνα. Σηµειώνεται εξάλλου, Þτι τα τελευταία 2 χρÞνια η Citi έχει επικεντρώσει τισ λειτουργίεσ τησ στα επενδυτικά και καταθετικά προϊÞντα, καθώσ και στισ πιστωτικέσ κάρτεσ.

21 ΝΟΕΜΒΡΙΟΥ, 2012


8/20 | ΑΓΟΡΑ

¡¤Ô ηٿÛÙËÌ· CELIO ÛÙÔ The Mall Αρχέσ ∆εκεµβρίου εγκαινιάζεται ένα ακÞµα κατάστηµα αντρικήσ µÞδασ CELIO στην Κύπρο, στον πρώτο Þροφο του The Mall of Cyprus, στη Λευκωσία. Τα CELIO ανήκουν σε µια απÞ τισ πλέον εδραιωµένεσ εταιρείεσ στο χώρο τησ ανδρικήσ µÞδασ παγκοσµίωσ, µε 850 καταστήµατα σε περισσÞτερεσ απÞ 40 χώρεσ στον κÞσµο. Tα αντρικά ρούχα CELIO είναι γνωστά για την ιδιαίτερη και νεανική αισθητική και ποιÞτητά τουσ. Επικεντρώνονται στην ποικιλία των χρωµάτων, στη φινέτσα και στη διακριτικÞτητα, προσφέροντασ έτσι στουσ άντρεσ, µÞδα άνετη και συγχρÞνωσ καλαίσθητη, πάντα σε προσιτέσ τιµέσ. Η φιλοσοφία των καταστηµάτων CELIO είναι να προσφέρουν στον σύγχρονο άντρα µοντέρνα και ευκολοφÞρετα κοµµάτια που προσφέρουν άνεση και στιλ, σε χαµηλέσ τιµέσ. Οι συλλογέσ CELIO ακολουθούν πάντα τισ τελευταίεσ τάσεισ τησ µÞδασ, είναι πάντα πλούσιεσ σε ποικιλία και στοχεύουν πάντα στο ίδιο αποτέλεσµα: σε ανεπιτήδευτα εντυπωσιακέσ εµφανίσεισ για τον σύγχρονο άντρα, για κάθε ώρα τησ ηµέρασ.

∫·ÚÙÔÎÈÓËÙ‹ ÁÈ· ÙÔ˘˜ Ê›ÏÔ˘˜ ÙÔ˘ ∞¶√∂§ Το νέο πακέτο προπληρωµένησ τηλεφωνίασ, αποκλειστικά αφιερωµένο στουσ φίλουσ του AΠΟΕΛ παρουσίασε το ΑΠΟΕΛ ΠοδÞσφαιρο Λτδ και η ΜΤΝ. Το νέο πακέτο προπληρωµένησ τηλεφωνίασ APOEL FC Mobile περιλαµβάνει αποκλειστικά προνÞµια για τουσ συνδροµητέσ του: - 200ΜΒ Þγκο δεδοµένων ∆ΩΡΕΑΝ, για πρÞσβαση στο internet Þταν ο συνδροµητήσ ξεπεράσει τα 15 ευρώ χρήσησ τον προηγούµενο µήνα - ∆ωρεάν goal alerts για Þλα τα παιχνιδια του ΑΠΟΕΛ σε κυπριακÞ πρωτάθληµα και ευρώπη. - 5 SMS δώρο κάθε φορά που σκοράρει ο ΑΠΟΕΛ, για χρήση εντÞσ Κύπρου - Συµµετοχή σε διαγωνισµούσ και κληρώσεισ για πλούσια δώρα Þπωσ δωρεάν εισιτήρια αγώνων, υπογραµµενεσ φανέλεσ, 1 µέρα µε τον αγαπηµένο παίχτη και πολλά άλλα - Μέχρι και 15% έκπτωση για αγορέσ απÞ το Orange shop. Το πακέτο APOEL FC Mobile συµπεριλαµβάνει ήδη 5 ευρώ χρÞνο οµιλίασ και 20 SMS και διατίθεται προσ πώληση στο Orange shop και Orange Online, στα MTN Stores και επιλεγµένα περίπτερα.

ÃÚÈÛÙÔ‡ÁÂÓÓ· ÛÙȘ ο‚˜ La Maison Du Vin Τισ προτεινÞµενεσ επιλογέσ κρασιών για το φετινÞ Χριστουγεννιάτικο τραπέζι παρουσίασαν σε ειδική εκδήλωση οι κάβεσ La Maison Du Vin, ξεκινώντασ έτσι τισ προετοιµασίεσ για να υποδεχθούν την οµορφÞτερη γιορτή του χρÞνου, τα Χριστούγεννα. Σε ένα γιορτινÞ τραπέζι παρουσιάστηκαν οι 8 απÞ τισ 75 χριστουγεννιάτικεσ επιλογέσ κρασιών τησ κάβασ. Στα πλαίσια τησ εκδήλωσησ οι προσκεκληµένοι είχαν την ευκαιρία να δοκιµάσουν και αφρώδεισ διεθνείσ οίνουσ που εκπροσωπούνται αποκλειστικά στην Κύπρο απÞ τισ κάβεσ La Maison Du Vin Þπωσ Ruinart Champagne, Mandois Champagne, Zardetto Prosecco και άλλα. Σε λευκούσ οίνουσ οι κάβεσ προτείνουν, το Κτήµα Άλφα – Μαλαγουζιά 2011, το A. Bichot - Chablis 2011, το Zenato – Pinot Grigio 2011, σε ρÞζε το Chateau Les Valetines Rose 2011, σε ερυθρούσ οίνουσ το Zenato Valpolicella Classico Superiore 2010, το Chateau La Croix Meunier St. Emilion Grand Cru 2009, το Marques de la Concordia Rioja 2010, και το Κτήµα Κατσαρού ΚÞκκινο 2007, εγκαινιάζοντασ και την καινούργια συνεργασία µεταξύ των δυο. Για περισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ µπορείτε να επισκεφτείτε την ιστοσελίδα

°ÓˆÚ›ÛÙÂ Ù· ÚÔ˚fiÓÙ· Bioten Γνωρίστε τα προϊÞντα περιποίησησ και σώµατοσ Bioten τησ εταιρείασ X.A Παπαέλληνασ σε Þλα τα καταστήµατα Beauty Line και σε υπεραγορέσ. ∆ερµατολογικά ελεγµένα χωρίσ Parabens και παραφίνη και σε εκπληκτικέσ τιµέσ. H Bioten σασ προσφέρει µία ευρεία γκάµα καλλυντικών για το πρÞσωπο και το σώµα που ικανοποιούν τισ ανάγκεσ κάθε ηλικίασ και κάθε τύπου δέρµατοσ. Τα προϊÞντα Bioten είναι δερµατολογικά ελεγµένα για να διασφαλίσουν τη συµβατÞτητα µε το δέρµα καθώσ και την αποτελεσµατικÞτητα του κάθε προϊÞντοσ. H Bioten επενδύει στην κλινική έρευνα και την κοσµετική τεχνολογία για να δηµιουργεί ολοένα και πιο αποτελεσµατικά και ασφαλή για το δέρµα προϊÞντα. Αυτέσ οι κλινικέσ δοκιµέσ επιβεβαιώνουν τα αποτελέσµατα που αναγράφονται στη συσκευασία κάθε προϊÞντοσ, διασφαλίζοντασ την εγκυρÞτητά τουσ. Για περισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ, επισκεφθείτε το site

N¤· ÀÂÚ·ÁÔÚ¿ ∂&S ÛÙË ¢ÂÚ‡ÓÂÈ· ΑπÞ την Παρασκευή 16 Νοεµβρίου ακÞµη µια Υπεραγορά E&S ενισχύει την παρουσία του συνεργατισµού στην ελεύθερη ΑµµÞχωστο. Οι κάτοικοι τησ ∆ερύνειασ και των γύρω περιοχών, µπορούν πλέον να επωφεληθούν των πραγµατικών προσφορών και των χαµηλών τιµών των Υπεραγορών Ε&S. Σε ένα χώρο 650 τετραγωνικών µέτρων, το κοινÞ έχει την επιλογή ολÞφρεσκων φρούτων και λαχανικών απÞ την φρουταρία, µεγάλη επιλογή τυριών και αλλαντικών απÞ το τµήµα delicatessen και να επιλέξει απÞ µια µεγάλη ποικιλία τροφίµων και Þτι άλλο χρειάζεται ένα σπίτι. Αξίζει να δοκιµάσετε τα προϊÞντα απÞ το ΣυνεργατισµÞ τησ Ιταλίασ COOP και του Ηνωµένου Βασιλείου THE CO-OPERATIVE τα οποία είναι ανώτερησ ποιÞτητάσ και σε απίστευτα χαµηλέσ τιµέσ.

¡¤Ô ÚÔ˚fiÓ ·fi ÙËÓ CNP Laiki Insurance Η CNP Laiki Insurance Holdings Ltd στην Ελλάδα, µέλοσ του Γαλλικού Ασφαλιστικού Κολοσσού CNP Assurances, ανακοίνωσε τη διάθεση του νέου προϊÞντοσ Πρωτοβάθµιασ Περίθαλψησ Bonjour PRIMARY, το οποίο και θα προωθείται αποκλειστικά στην ελληνική αγορά µέσω του δικτύου ανεξάρτητων ασφαλιστικών διαµεσολαβητών τησ Εταιρείασ. Το Bonjour PRIMARY, είναι ένα ολοκληρωµένο και σύγχρονο προϊÞν Πρωτοβάθµιασ Περίθαλψησ, µέσω του οποίου ο πελάτησ έχει τη δυνατÞτητα να αξιοποιήσει προσ ÞφελÞσ του υπηρεσίεσ και παροχέσ πρωτοβάθµιασ ιατρικήσ περίθαλψησ. Το Bonjour PRIMARY αποτελεί το δεύτερο προϊÞν υγείασ, µετά το Bonjour Health, για το δίκτυο ανεξάρτητων ασφαλιστικών διαµεσολαβητών τησ Εταιρείασ, οι οποίοι ωσ εξειδικευµένα στελέχη τησ ασφαλιστικήσ αγοράσ, αναµένεται να έχουν πρωταγωνιστικÞ ρÞλο στην ενηµέρωση των πελατών για νέεσ και διαφορετικέσ λύσεισ.

™¯Â‰fiÓ ¤ÙÔÈÌË Ë ˘ÂÚ·ÁÔÚ¿ √ÚÊ·Ó›‰Ë Συνεχίζονται µε γοργούσ ρυθµούσ οι εργασίεσ στη µεγάλη υπεραγορά Ορφανίδη στο Nicosia City Mall στον ΣτρÞβολο. Η ανακαίνιση προχωρά σύµφωνα µε το πρÞγραµµα, έτσι ώστε τέλη Νοεµβρίου να λειτουργήσει µια υπεραγορά µε υπερσύγχρονουσ και αισθητά πιο βολικούσ χώρουσ. Θα περιλαµβάνει τα πιο εκλεκτά προϊÞντα στα τµήµατα φρουταρίασ, τυριών και αλλαντικών, κρεοπωλείου, ψαραγοράσ, φούρνουζαχαροπλαστείου και ψησταριάσ. Οι καταναλωτέσ θα επωφεληθούν µε τισ καλύτερεσ τιµέσ στο παντοπωλείο, κάβα, κουζινικά, είδη προίκασ, είδη σπιτιού, παιχνίδια, ηλεκτρικά, DIY, καλλυντικά, παιχνίδια, ανθοπωλείο και mini shop. Θα διαθέτει 15 ταµεία και άνετουσ χώρουσ στάθµευσησ. Μέσα στον χώρο του Nicosia City Mall, οι καταναλωτέσ θα µπορούν να απολαύσουν την άψογη εξυπηρέτηση στην µοντέρνα καφετέρια και παράλληλα, οι γονείσ να ψωνίζουν ξέγνοιαστα, καθώσ τα παιδιά θα διασκεδάζουν στον παιδÞτοπο.

November 21 - 27, 2012


PrimeTel runs new “Sonus” voice platform PrimeTel, the first private telecommunication company in Cyprus, has begun its collaboration with “Sonus Networks”, a global leader in SIP communications, after which many business and corporate customers have been migrated to the new “Sonus” voice platform. This partnership enhances the company’s capability to provide new, advanced and quality telephony services in the Cyprus market and improve its existing secure and reliable network.

During the second stage of this project, PrimeTel’s home customers will also enjoy the advanced services from the first quarter of 2013 and will be able to use calling features such as call forwarding, call waiting, conference calling, barring, find-me and call transfer. Meanwhile, PrimeTel’s billing on the Sonus network will be real-time allowing the company and its customers to keep track of bills and help customers to manage their spending, as well as detect and limit bad debt and fraud.

Aphrodite Hills wins 2012 Best Resort award InterContinental Aphrodite Hills Resort Hotel was awarded Best Resort Hotel, Cyprus at the International Property Awards 2012 Gala ceremony held at the London Marriott Hotel in London earlier this month. Developed to identify, highlight and reward excellence throughout the global hospitality industry, the International Hotel Awards in association with Bloomberg Television, seek to recognise the finest operations throughout a wide range of areas. In addition to categories for all manner of

different sized and specifically targeted hotels, there are also sections for the best hotel architecture, interior design, marketing and website. On behalf of Aphrodite Hills this year’s awards were accepted by the Hotel’s General Manager, Andreas Christodoulides, who said: “We are very proud to receive this prestigious award for a second consecutive year. Thank you for this huge recognition and like all InterContinental properties we will continue to offer A Great Hotel that Guests Love!”

Legal Resources Centre in strategic alliance with Forensic Healthcare Services The Legal Resources Centre, an affiliate partner of the law office of Christodoulos G. Vassiliades & Co. LLC, has forged a strategic alliance and exclusive representation arrangement with Forensic Healthcare Services (FHC), a UK-based organisation which offers a specialised resource for the provision of expert witnesses for criminal and civil courts. FHC aims, wherever possible, to identify appropriate, experienced, authoritative and independent experts for those agencies seeking expert opinion and testimony from witnesses. Advocates, legal consultants, crime investigators, police authorities, Ministries and other entities associated with the medico-legal sphere in Cyprus, will be able to have access to an established network of highly skilled specialists, offering invaluable resources, cuttingedge technology, a wealth of experience and unrivalled expertise in a diverse range of disci-

plines in the forensics field. The Legal Resources Centre will also offer FHC training courses tailored to the needs of individual clients in the areas of medical practice, crime prevention and law enforcement. The co-operation between FHC and LRC is an important development and a significant step for those in Cyprus who are exposed to and involved in diverse disciplines which are encountered in the intriguing field of forensic science. The inauguration ceremony and reception to mark LRC’s exclusive collaborative arrangement with FHC, was held at the Ledra Business Centre where invited guests where addressed by LRC’s founder, Christodoulos G. Vassiliades, Consulting Director, Peter Pafitis, FHC’s Medical Director, Dr. Jason PayneJames and the British High Commissioner, Matthew Kidd.

November 21 - 27, 2012


Risk assets soar on US fiscal cliff hopes World stock markets and commodities surged on Monday, recovering some of the previous week’s sharp losses as traders focused on politicians’ comments indicating readiness to compromise to avoid the U.S. “fiscal cliff.” Wall Street stocks climbed almost 2%, extending a rally that began on Friday, while crude oil was up almost 3%. The S&P 500 closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time in the past eight sessions. U.S. lawmakers indicated compromises were possible in negotiations to avert $600 bln in tax increases and spending cuts due to start in January - the “fiscal cliff” that threatens to send the U.S. economy back into recession.

Legislators from both parties have indicated in recent days compromise was possible on key issues like raising tax rates for wealthy individuals, which previously seemed unlikely. MSCI’s world equity index jumped 2%, more than erasing the 1.8% drop it posted last week. Monday was the best day for the index since July 27. “At this point, we haven’t seen any of the details, so we’re still a bit cautious but optimistic that we will see an agreement reached some time,” said Joseph Tanious, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds in New York. “It’s become fairly clear that both sides of the aisle are willing to compromise and want to negotiate.”

Brent steady above $111 Brent crude held steady above $111 a barrel on Tuesday, on hopes a U.S. budget crisis will be averted and on supply worries triggered by tensions in the Middle East. Oil prices found additional support from the growing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Investors are waiting to find out if it will be truce or war. Mediator Egypt says a deal to end the fighting could be close. Israel says it is prepared to move troops into Gaza but prefers a diplomatic solution. Optimism that debt-laden Greece will get more funding also helped brighten the outlook for oil demand, but price gains were

checked as the euro fell after Moody’s stripped France of its prized triple-A rating. A stronger dollar makes commodities priced in the greenback less appealing to holders of other currencies. Promising data from the U.S., the world’s top oil consumer, also helped keep oil prices near the peak reached in the previous session. U.S. home resales rose in October and a gauge of homebuilder sentiment climbed to a six-year high in November, signs of surprising vigor in the country’s still-struggling housing market.

Optimism in Europe over the prospects of a deal this week to release much-needed aid for Greece also lent support. European officials are expected to discuss a two-year funding plan for Athens at a meeting in Brussels, which would postpone any longer-term solution until after a September 2013 German general election. ECB policymaker Joerg Asmussen said at the weekend that the ministers were likely to agree to the deal and leave resolution of a longer-term debt stabilization plan for Greece, which is at the heart of a disagreement with the IMF, until later. The euro rose 0.5% to $1.28, well above the two-month low of $1.2661 hit last week and

near the top end of its recent range, suggesting the foreign exchange market expects an agreement on Greece. “This message from the ECB would tell me that, yes, what we are heading to this week is an agreement that would keep Greece out of trouble for the next year or so,” said Gilles Moec, senior European economist at Deutsche Bank. The rising hopes of a deal on closing the U.S. budget gap, which has clouded the outlook for global growth, spread through commodity markets, lifting oil, copper and gold. Copper rallied 2.3% to $7,803.75 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, and gold rose $18.11 to $1,731.6 an ounce.

China FDI inflows on track for $100 bln China’s foreign direct investment is on track to top $100 bln in 2012 even as the longest run of year-on-year declines in inflows since 2009 extended into October, dragged down by an uncertain outlook for corporate spending as global trade sags. The Commerce Ministry said that China drew $91.7 bln in FDIs between January and October, down 3.45% on the same period a year ago, marking the tenth month that aggregate year-to-date flows fell compared with the previous period. China’s economy is acutely sensitive to external demand, despite a gradual

rebalancing towards domestic consumption. Total exports were worth about 31% of GDP in 2011, according to World Bank data, and an estimated 200 mln Chinese jobs are in the export sector or supported directly by foreign investment, making FDI a particularly important gauge of prospects for China’s vast factory sector. Despite the slowing rate of inflow, China remains firmly on course to secure more than $100 bln of FDIs for the third successive year, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

JPY at 7-month low vs. USD The yen hovered near a seven-month low against the dollar on Tuesday and was likely to stay under pressure in the near term, dealers said, amid mounting political calls for more aggressive monetary expansion. The yen showed little reaction after the Bank of Japan held off from additional monetary stimulus, in line with expectations, after having eased in September and October. The dollar last traded at 81.28 yen. The greenback was within sight of the previous day’s high of 81.59 yen, the dollar’s highest level versus the yen since late April. The yen has slid over the past week on market expectations that a likely new Japanese government after a December election would push the BOJ toward more forceful monetary stimulus, and analysts said the

dollar may have more room to rise against the Japanese currency in the near term. Japan’s opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has a commanding lead in opinion polls ahead of the election on Dec. 16, has become increasingly vocal in its calls

In the latest sign of the LDP’s stance on monetary policy, the Nikkei newspaper reported that the party is likely to include in its campaign platform a pledge to consider revising a law guaranteeing central bank independence.

FOREX COMMENTARY & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS for more monetary stimulus. Shinzo Abe, the leader of the LDP, has called on the BOJ for bolder policy action, including “unlimited easing”, pushing interest rates to zero or below zero and directly underwriting bonds issued to fund public works spending.

While there is the possibility of the LDP toning down its rhetoric after the election, such calls for forceful BOJ easing are likely to persist for now and support the dollar against the yen, said Rob Ryan, a strategist at RBS. Against this backdrop, the dollar may find support against the yen on any pull-back.

Some Japanese importers and investors may have been caught off guard by the dollar’s recent surge against the yen, said a trader for a Japanese bank in Singapore. “So, downside dips will be bought into,” the trader said. At the same time, some traders are looking to sell the dollar if it rises towards 82.00 yen, the trader added. The euro dipped 0.2 percent to $1.2790, having eased after Moody’s cut France’s sovereign rating by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa, citing an uncertain fiscal outlook and deteriorating economy. The single currency’s losses were limited, however. Analysts said the downgrade did not come as a surprise, with Standard & Poor’s having already downgraded France in January.

Disclaimer: The commentary appearing on this page is for indication purposes only and Eurivex does not take any responsibility for investment action taken. Nothing in this report should be considered to constitute investment advice. It is not intended, and should not be considered, as an offer, invitation, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any of the financial instruments described herein. Trading on leverage is very risky and may lead to losses.

November 21 - 27, 2012


Sayonara Deflation, Konnichiwa Yen Carry-Trade? Marcuard’s Market update by GaveKal Research Jesper Koll of JP Morgan once wrote that there are two simple rules to remember when investing in Japan. The first is to never underestimate the amount of pain that the Japanese population can endure. The second is to never underestimate the Japanese policymakers’ ability to test the first rule. Nothing that has occurred in recent years challenges this observation. From the Japanese government’s hapless reaction to last year’s tsunami, to the inability to check the yen’s rise against most of its trade competitors, to the debacle surrounding the use of nuclear energy, to the inability of fostering an engaging relationship with China and Korea (two of Japan’s biggest trade partners), the ruling DPJ has hardly covered itself in glory. This probably explains why, with news of snap elections set for December 16, the market seems to be cheering a likely change of leadership. The Nikkei has risen smartly just as all other global equity markets continued their post-US election and post-QE3 slump. So is this the start of a new trend? One of the major hurdles for Japanese risk assets in recent years has been the almost open conflict between the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance. In essence, the dialogue has gone something like this The BoJ: “Our tax receipts have fallen from Y60tr to Y35tr in the past 20 years. We need to move away from a reliance on corporate taxes and instead tax consumption, assets and inheritance at higher rates.” To which the elected officials at the MoF would typically reply: “That sounds great, but more than half of voters are either retired or will be soon. They’ve paid income taxes their whole working lives. If we increase the taxes on their assets, on which they already get meager returns, and tax their consumption, I am not going to hold on to my job past the end of this week. I have a better idea, why don’t you print a bunch of yen, monetize my debt and weaken the yen, thereby boosting returns in our exporting industries and allowing the tax office to collect more money.” To which the BoJ, at least under Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, has typically replied: “We have tried this in the past and it does not work.” This is how Japan has been in limbo, with a

yen creeping higher against other currencies suffering debasement, a bond market that did very little and an equity market that drifted back down to 1982 levels. The big question for investors is whether the above dynamic is about to change. If nothing else, the rhetoric from Shinzo Abe, the LDP leader, is pointing in another direction. Abe is proposing a two-front (fiscal and monetary policy) attack on deflation with the launch of a JPY 200trn public works program to rebuild roads and re-enforce public buildings against earthquakes and tsunamis: i.e.: a “shovel ready” arrangement equivalent to about 4% of GDP a year for a decade. This would be funded by issuing bonds that the BoJ

bonds for the yield pick-up? Buy Indian or ASEAN equities for the growth story? Play the European convergence trade once again? At this stage, it is hard to say, but monitoring the funds that Nomura, Daiwa and Mizuho sell over the coming quarters may turn out to be important! Our conclusion is that something is starting to unfold in Japan: policymakers will change for sure, with very likely changes in fiscal and monetary policies, and in the value of the currency. The combination should logically lead to a repricing of a number of assets; in Japan obviously, but potentially around the world as well.

Still, however one cuts it, the odds seem to favor the following: The yen is potentially heading much lower. Not just against the US dollar but also against Japan’s true competitors, namely Korea (the won is up 11% this year against the yen), China (up 6% against the yen ytd), Switzerland and Germany. A weaker yen should have a big impact on the equity market where the valuation gap between domestic plays boosted by the strong yen (retail, pharmas, railways, staples, etc.) and exporters has never been this wide. This valuation gap could close quite quickly and provide terrific opportunities for Japan long-short funds (and we are not just saying that because




EUROPEAN Belarussian Ruble British Pound * Bulgarian Lev Czech Koruna Danish Krone Estonian Kroon Euro * Georgian Lari Hungarian Forint Latvian Lats Lithuanian Litas Maltese Pound * Moldavan Leu Norwegian Krone Polish Zloty Romanian Leu Russian Rouble Swedish Krona Swiss Franc Ukrainian Hryvnia


8530 1.591 1.529 19.8264 5.8313 12.2363 1.279 1.655 220.25 0.54355 2.6994 0.3356 12.2785 5.7466 3.2318 3.5447 31.4286 6.7433 0.9416 8.188


1.0405 0.9969 7.7517 55.03 81.16 1082.1 1.2225 1.224


0.3770 6.0973 12143.90 3.9236 0.7059 0.2819 1501.00 0.3850 3.6407 3.7501 8.8580 3.6728


0.7837 150.23 1.8016


would buy in size as soon as April when Shirakawa-san has to leave, most likely be replaced (under an Abe premiership) by the dovish ex-MoF Vice Minister Katsu. Of course, there are many potential hurdles to this two-pronged attack on deflation. The most obvious one is that the LDP needs to win next month’s election in the face of a growing challenge from smaller, more reformist and sometimes more nationalist parties (nationalism is playing well as tensions with China keep ratcheting up). The other is that, even if the LDP does well in the upcoming election, it may not control the upper-chamber and will thus be forced to embrace some compromises.

Australian Dollar * Canadian Dollar Hong Kong Dollar Indian Rupee Japanese Yen Korean Won New Zeland Dollar * Singapore Dollar

we happen to manage one!). Finally, a weaker yen could have implications for other asset classes around the world. The last time that Japan embarked on a determined QE program (2002-2004), Japanese investors (who remain amongst the most asset rich in the world) saw the BoJ policy as an invitation to seek yield overseas, safe in the knowledge that whatever returns they could harvest abroad would not be eaten up by yen appreciation. Instead, returns were often enhanced by yen depreciation. This raises the question of what Japanese investors will do if such an opportunity comes along again. Buy funds packed with AUD/BRL/NZD/RMB

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA Bahrain Dinar Egyptian Pound Iranian Rial Israeli Shekel Jordanian Dinar Kuwait Dinar Lebanese Pound Omani Rial Qatar Rial Saudi Arabian Riyal South African Rand U.A.E. Dirham ASIA

Disclaimer: This information may not be construed as advice and in particular not as investment, legal or tax advice. Depending on your particular circumstances you must obtain advice from your respective professional advisors. Investment involves risk. The value of investments may go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee for future performance. Investments in foreign currencies are subject to exchange rate fluctuations. Marcuard Cyprus Ltd is regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySec) under License no. 131/11.

Azerbaijanian Manat Kazakhstan Tenge Turkish Lira Note:

* USD per National Currency

The Financial Markets Interest Rates Base Rates

LIBOR rates


0-0,25% 0.50% 0.75% 0-0,1% 0-0,25%

Swap Rates















0.21 0.50 0.06 0.13 0.00

0.26 0.51 0.09 0.15 0.01

0.31 0.52 0.13 0.19 0.03

0.53 0.68 0.25 0.30 0.12

0.86 1.04 0.50 0.51 0.31


0.37 0.66 0.39 0.25 0.05

0.45 0.71 0.50 0.24 0.08

0.58 0.82 0.66 0.26 0.16

0.77 0.97 0.85 0.30 0.27

1.16 1.32 1.23 0.43 0.53

1.65 1.84 1.67 0.74 0.88

Exchange Rates Major Cross Rates CCY1\CCY2 USD EUR GBP CHF JPY

Opening Rates

1 USD 1 EUR 1 GBP 1 CHF 1.2790 0.7819

100 JPY

















1.1602 86.19

Weekly movement of USD































1.5910 1.2790 81.16 0.9416

Last Week %Change 1.5869 1.2686 79.29 0.9496

-0.26 -0.82 +2.36 -0.84

November 21 - 27, 2012


Bankers prep $7 bln debt for buyouts l

Leveraged M&A pipeline upbeat for 2013

Bankers are working on debt packages totalling around 5.5 bln euros for a string of buyouts which are a welcome relief after a dearth of M&A activity this year. The buyouts - which include motoring services group AA, academic book publisher Springer Science & Business Media, and meter-reading company ista International - are part of a growing pipeline of deals set for 2013. M&A loan volume is down 53% to $20.9 bln year-to-date, according to Thomson Reuters LPC data. “All of a sudden, within a few weeks, sponsors are thinking about buying and selling assets. The pipeline is building for 2013 and these are not just straightforward refinancings like we have seen recently but proper new deals that require underwriting. It is very good for the market,” a banker said. Bankers said they have been asked to provide indicative debt and leveraged levels needed to back a buyout of the AA. The 107-year-old AA and over-50’s insurance and travel company Saga are owned by Acromas, which appointed Ernst & Young to carry out vendor due diligence earlier this year as its private equity owners Charterhouse, CVC and Permira explored valuations for the companies as two separate entities. Banks are working on AA or Saga to discuss buyout and pre or post-IPO financing, respectively, as Saga is a likely candidate for flotation, bankers said.

Debt for an AA buyout will be approximately 2 bln pounds via the leveraged loan and high yield bond market, they said. Acromas was formed in 2007 though the 6.2 bln pound private equity-backed merger of AA and Saga, which was funded with a 4.8 bln pound leveraged loan.


Private equity firms EQT and GIC Special Investments of Singapore were expected to sell German Springer Science, bankers said, after previously considering options to sell the company or refinance it. JP Morgan has been mandated to advise on the process, which could also result in an IPO, and an information memorandum is being put together to send to potential buyers, bankers said. The company could attract interest from private equity or trade buyers including German media group Bertelsmann as the company has performed well and EBITDA has risen to around 330 mln euros, from 310 mln in 2011, bankers said. Bankers are putting together debt packages in excess of 1 bln euros to back a potential buyout if a private equity firm were successful, the bankers said. EQT and GIC acquired Springer Science & Business Media in 2009 for 2.3 bln euros from Candover and Cinven, backed by 1.72 bln euros debt, according to TRLPC data.

Springer Science is the world’s second-largest publisher of scientific research journals in science, technology and medicine and is the largest publisher of books in the field, according to EQT. Elsewhere, Charterhouse, which bought German firm ista in 2007 for 2.4 bln euros backed with 2.1 bln debt, is set to sell, bankers said. Potential buyers are lining up and bankers are working on debt packages of around 2 bln euros to back any buyout, they said, adding Goldman Sachs will likely run the sales process.

Banks to shrink for good as lay-offs near 160,000 l

More cuts likely as industry restructures, while investment bankers, equities traders bear brunt of lay-offs

Major banks have announced some 160,000 job cuts since early last year and with more lay-offs to come as the industry restructures, many will leave the shrinking sector for good as redundancies outpace new hires by roughly two-to-one. A Reuters analysis of job cuts announced by 29 major banks showed the lay-offs were much bigger in Europe than in Asia or the United States. That is a particular blow to Britain where the finance industry makes up roughly 10% of the economy. The tally of nearly 160,000 job cut plans, meanwhile, is likely to be a conservative estimate as smaller banks and brokers are also cutting staff or shutting up shop, and bigger banks have not always disclosed target numbers of lay-offs. The tally also does not include reports of 6,000 job cuts to come at Commerzbank, for example, which the German group would not confirm last week. Well-paid investment bankers are bearing the brunt of cost cuts as deals dry up and trading income falls. That is particularly the case in some activities such as stock trading, where low volumes and thin margins are squeezing banks. The job cuts eat into tax revenues usually reaped from the sector at a time when the global economic recovery is slowing. This year’s tax income from the industry in Britain could drop to around 40 bln pounds ($63 bln), compared to 70 bln in 2007/08, when the financial crisis hit, the Centre for Economics

and Business Research (CEBR) think-tank said this week. The job cuts announced since the beginning of 2011 come on top of job cuts already carried since 2009. Of the 29 banks, from Europe’s biggest bank HSBC to U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley, just over 83,700 net jobs have been lost since 2009, with 167,200 jobs axed and 83,500 created. Squeezed by regulations forcing banks to store up more capital in their trading businesses, firms are likely to shrink their investment banking units even further, as they overhaul their models to survive. “It is structural as well as in response to cycles in the market. The market is still over-broked,” said Zaheer Ebrahim at recruiters Kennedy Group. Swiss bank UBS last month outlined a further 10,000 lay-offs after announcing a plan for 3,500 job cuts last year. It said in October it had decided to exit most of its rates and debt trading units. Workers in retail banking operation will not be immune to job cuts either, particularly in slowing European economies. In France for instance, bank executives predict retail revenues will falter. “There are still 300,000 too many full-time employees in the top financial services players in Europe,” said Caio Gilberti from

the financial services practice of consultancy AlixPartners. Gilberti said cutting those jobs could lop just over 20 bln euros off banks’ collective cost base.


As banks shrink, fewer of those leaving are able to find equivalent jobs at rivals, head-hunters and bankers said, and only a small proportion of those are qualified to move into other jobs at hedge funds, for instance, which look for specialised, skilled traders. Mergers and acquisition dealmakers are now also coming under pressure, with fees in that area down 21% worldwide to $13.9 bln in the first nine months, Thomson Reuters data showed. More senior investment bankers are among those in the line of fire. Those ranking as managing directors (MDs), who can command base salaries of around 350,000 pounds ($556,000), are becoming costly to keep - and difficult to take on. “At MD level, it is tougher to accept smaller jobs, and they do not have the same drive and ambition as the young bankers who have just graduated,” Ebrahim from the Kennedy Group said. Many of those that have enjoyed lucrative careers in the fatter years are instead leaving big banks for good, setting up their own small consultancies or different types of businesses.

UK finance bonuses to plummet as London loses Bonuses for 2012 in London’s financial sector will more than halve to 1.6 bln pounds in total, a study found, and some shareholders are urging banks to cut pay even more. The handouts will keep falling until 2015, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said, reflecting the impact of tougher financial market conditions and public disquiet over the size of banker payouts. Yet the impact of the squeeze on the sector goes further than bonus payments and the researchers also said employment in London’s banks, brokerages and other financial sector firms - collectively known as the City - will keep shrinking. They said this would allow rival centre Hong Kong to overtake London by size in the next three years. Banking job cuts have hit London hard in the past three years as euro zone woes and regulation eat into firms’ income, and a further slowdown in stock trading and merg-

ers and acquisitions is expected to affect pay levels for 2012. Payouts have also fallen after a public backlash over big bonuses, blamed for helping create the climate which led to the financial crisis which started in 2008. Shareholders upset about poor returns are becoming more demanding too. Shareholder activist group Hermes Equity Ownership Services (EOS) on Monday called on the industry to base bonus payouts on a performance period of three to five years, rather than annual performance, echoing earlier proposals on how payouts should be calculated. Hermes EOS, which is owned by Hermes Fund Managers which is owned by the BT Pension Scheme, B ritain’s biggest private sector pension fund, also recommended banks pay only up to a quarter of their revenue to staff, rather than the current 40 to 50%. Earlier this year several banks including Barclays were hit by a bigger than usual backlash from shareholders over pay

when they sought approval for payout plans. “The money that governments intend the banks to use to rebuild their balance sheets has been in large part siphoned off into individuals’ pockets,” Hermes EOS said in a report. Hermes EOS, which has over $120 bln of assets under advice, said pay changes were one of the overhauls needed to make banks investible again.


London financial sector bonuses for 2012 - likely to be paid in January or February next year - will be more than 86% down on the 11.5 bln pounds worth of payouts in 2007-2008, when dealmaking was booming just before the financial crisis, the CEBR data showed. Base salaries have risen since then, partly in response to controversy over incentive-related bonuses, meaning overall levels of pay have not dropped by quite so much.

November 21 - 27, 2012


November 21 - 27, 2012


Looking hard for reasons to give thanks l

Euro zone in fresh crisis talks over Greece, as budget wrangling in US, EU could sour sentiment

With every year that passes, fewer and fewer people lead a life that is poor, nasty, brutish and short. So it is only right to step back, as America does this Thursday, to appreciate the bounties bestowed by economic progress. Yet this Thanksgiving, with the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis refusing to fade, will not feel like a time to celebrate. In Europe, another week brings another meeting of finance ministers to try to ‘save’ Greece as well as another set of surveys likely to show the euro zone heading for another quarter of recession. And in the United States, despite warm words after talks on Friday, worries about the capacity of politicians to put the public finances on a sustainable footing are sure to persist. Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies in New York, said he was sceptical of the consensus that Democrats and Republicans would strike a budget bargain by the year-end deadline for the two sides had painted themselves into corners. He said it was important to distinguish between the compromises needed to dodge the immediate ‘fiscal cliff’ - a mix of tax increases and spending cuts set to take effect in January and a long-term deal to slash the deficit. “It’s virtually impossible to get a long-term budget deal done before the end of the year. The fiscal cliff doesn’t end the process; it’s just the beginning. So we still have the threat of another credit downgrade hanging over our head,” McCarthy said. Joe Carson, an economist at AllianceBernstein in New York, shares those concerns; a short-term fix would not provide the clarity that businesses and consumers need. “And without a legislative solution to the federal deficit and ever-rising federal debt problem, the U.S. runs the risk of another credit rating downgrade, with the added costs and uncertainty that could also weigh on economic growth prospects for years to come,” Carson said in a note.


Leaders of the 27-member European Union will hold a two-

day meeting in Brussels this week to try to thrash out a longterm budget of their own. Tempers can be expected to fray. Of greater immediate importance, however, will be talks among euro zone finance ministers to try to agree with the IMF on a stop-gap financing programme for Greece. Athens is drowning in debt and needs a new write-off, the IMF and virtually all private economists say. But that is politi-

By Alan Wheatley Global Economics Correspondent, Reuters cally taboo before German elections next September. Hence the need to keep drip-feeding aid to Athens - something the Fund is reluctant to do on the basis of debt sustainability projections it considers unrealistic. The European Central Bank has reduced the risk of a disorderly break-up of the euro by promising in principle to buy the bonds of big indebted countries such as Spain and Italy. But the wrangling over Greece is a constant reminder of the single currency’s shaky foundations, and that weighs heavily on Europe’s economy. “The financial stability that has been created by the measures that the ECB has taken over the summer is not translating into a better economic outlook,” said Bert Colijn, an economist in Brussels with the Conference Board, a research outfit.


The euro zone went into the fourth quarter with industrial output slumping, and a November survey of the area’s purchasing managers due on Thursday is likely to offer scant relief. Economists polled by Reuters expect the index derived from

the survey to tick up to just 45.8 from 45.7 in October - still well below the boom-bust threshold of 50. A parallel poll of procurement executives from German industry is forecast to show no change, while on Friday Munich’s IFO institute is expected to report a deterioration in the business climate in Europe’s biggest economy. Colijn said concern over the prospects for China, a big customer, was affecting Germany. “You see in declining orders and business confidence that the global weakening in manufacturing is a concern to Germany as well,” he said. But there should also be reasons this week to give some sort of thanks. Several banks expect China’s HSBC/Markit purchasing managers’ index (PMI) to regain the neutral mark of 50 after a reading of 49.5 in October. And even the dark cyclical cloud enveloping the euro zone’s PMIs has a silver structural lining, according to a Goldman Sachs study. Although pointing to a second straight quarter of recession, the recent surveys are consistent with the economic rebalancing that the single currency area needs, the bank said. Germany is gradually stimulating domestic services, while Spain’s export sector is faring better at the expense of construction and public services. In sum, Goldman suggests, “Spain is an economy where the all too obvious pain of the current recession may be obscuring an ongoing, necessary and broadly effective restructuring.” As for the United States, October data on housing starts and building permits due on Tuesday might show some payback after a strong September. But McCarthy with Jefferies said he was confident that housing was in the early stages of a long-term rebound. “What I like about it is that it’s balanced and a gradual process, not a boom, which means it’ll probably have longer legs. Housing typically leads recoveries. This time it has lagged, which means as a consequence that the recovery itself could have longer legs,” he said. Amen to that.

Task force says global shadow banking hits $67 trln l

G20 group charts rise of sector blamed for aggravating crisis

The system of so-called “shadow banking,” blamed by some for aggravating the global financial crisis, grew to a new high of $67 trln globally last year, a top regulatory group said, calling for tighter control of the sector. A report by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) appeared to confirm fears among policymakers that shadow banking is set to thrive, beyond the reach of a regulatory net tightening around traditional banks and banking activities. The FSB, a task force from the world’s top 20 economies, also called for greater regulatory control of shadow banking. “The FSB is of the view that the authorities’ approach to shadow banking has to be a targeted one,” the group wrote in a report, noting the current lax regulation of the sector. “The objective is to ensure that shadow banking is subject to appropriate oversight and regulation to address bank-like risks to financial stability,” it said. Officials at the European Commission in Brussels also see closer oversight of the sector as important in preventing a repeat of the financial crisis that has toppled banks over the past five years and rocked the euro zone. The study by the FSB said shadow banking around the world more than doubled to $62 trln in the five years to 2007 before the crisis struck. But the size of the total system had grown to $67 trln in 2011 - more than the total economic output of all the countries in the study. The multitrillion-dollar activities of hedge funds and private equity companies are often cited as examples of shadow

banking. But the term also covers investment funds, money market funds and even cash-rich firms that lend government bonds to banks, which in turn use them as security when taking credit from the European Central Bank. Even the man credited with coining the term, former investment executive Paul McCulley, gave a catch-all definition, saying he understood shadow banking to mean “the whole alphabet soup of levered up non-bank investment conduits, vehicles and structures,” such as the special investment vehicles that many blamed for the financial crisis.

The United States had the largest shadow banking system, said the FSB, with assets of $23 trln in 2011, followed by the euro area with $22 trln - and the U.K. - at $9 trln. The U.S. share of the global shadow banking system has declined in recent years, the FSB said, while the shares of the United Kingdom and the euro area have increased. The FSB warned that tighter rules that force banks to hoard more capital reserves to cover losses could bolster shadow banking. It advocated better controls, although cautions that shadow banking reforms should be dealt with carefully because the sector can also be a source of credit for business and consumers. Forms of shadow banking can include securitization, which can transform bank loans into a tradeable instrument that can then be used to refinance credit, making it easier to lend. In the run-up to the crisis, however, banks such as Germany’s IKB stored billions of euros of such instruments in off-balance sheet vehicles, which later unravelled. Another example is a repurchasing agreement, or repo, where a player such as a hedge fund could sell government bonds it owns to a bank, agreeing to repurchase them later. The bank may then lend those bonds onto another hedge fund, taking a position on the government debt. Such agreements are used by banks to lend and borrow. A risk could arise if one of the parties in the chain collapses. The European Commission is expected to propose EUwide rules for shadow banking next year.

November 21 - 27, 2012


Banks face extra monitoring in return for aid Greece’s international lenders will enforce additional supervision on the country’s troubled banks along with the billions of euros they will provide to shore them up, senior bankers said on Friday. The so-called troika of the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund lenders wants its own monitors at each bank receiving state support to oversee credit policies and restructuring plans. “The supervision by monitoring trustees has been demanded by the troika and the EU Competition Commission,” one of the bankers told Reuters. “The trustees will not only be looking at new credit, they will also have a say on how lenders are managing their entire loan book and their follow-up on existing loans.” They will also oversee any lending to top management, board members and staff, and their families, the banker said. Of Greece’s second 130 bln euro bailout package, 50 bln is earmarked to recapitalise the battered banking sector, and international lenders want better supervision to ensure banks follow best practice. In 2012 Reuters published several in-depth reports on alleged mismanagement at Greek and Cypriot banks, including Proton Bank, Piraeus Bank and Marfin Popular Bank, now renamed Cyprus Popular Bank.

In May, Piraeus announced it was suing Reuters over a report about the bank renting properties owned by companies run by its chairman and his family.


Last week, Athens unveiled a long-awaited framework to recapitalise its banks, whose equity base was nearly wiped out by huge losses from a sovereign debt swap and rising loan writedowns in a deep recession. Under the plan, banks will have to issue new shares to achieve at least a 6% core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio plus bonds that can be converted into shares - so-called CoCos - to boost it up to 9%. The private sector will have to take up at least 10% of the new shares to be issued to keep lenders privately run. Failure will mean nationalisation. The remainder will be taken up by a bank support fund, the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF), which is funded from the country’s bailout and has already injected 18.5 bln euros into the four biggest banks. The HFSF, which will provide most of the new capital by buying most of the new shares and all of the convertible bonds, will become the banks’ biggest shareholder. “Adding an extra layer of supervision will mean less flexibility for bank managements,” said Euroxx Securities analyst Maria

Kanellopoulou. “The troika does not want banks to be nationalised. But given the large amounts that will be pumped into them, it wants to have a say.” Bankers expressed reservations on the troika’s demand for tighter scrutiny, saying it might prove cumbersome for commercial banking operations. The independent monitors will be picked from credible auditing firms and will have to be approved by the European Commission. They will report to the troika and have full access to banks’ books, the bankers said. According to Kathimerini newspaper, the tighter supervision also aims to cut the umbilical cord between banks and the political system and big media organisations, some of which have received loans that might not have been granted under strict banking criteria. The paper said all loans would come under the microscope credit extended to banks’ staff, shareholders and top management, including their spouses, children and relatives. In the state-financed political system, big political parties pledged future state funding as collateral to get bank loans. The parties, with debt of more than 200 mln euros, now face much lower income to service their loans, as falling popular support in recent elections means they will get less from the state, which bases its funding on the proportion of votes won.

Most want the euro, oppose austerity Most Greeks want their country to stay in the euro zone even though they are increasingly angry about the job losses, pay cuts and other sacrifices demanded by international lenders, a poll showed. The survey, conducted last week after parliament approved a new wave of austerity, shows that about 63% want Athens to stay in the single currency bloc at all cost, significantly lower from 81.6% just before a June 17 election. “The tough austerity measures are weighing on Greeks,” Takis Theodorikakos of the GPO poll company told Reuters. “The price they are paying for staying in the euro is very high.” More than 40% of those polled said they were angry and disappointed with their politicians, the judicial system and labour unions. About 63% said they viewed the government’s handling of the crisis negatively. If elections were held now, the radical leftist SYRIZA party,

which opposes tough austerity measures, would win with 22.3%, the poll for MEGA TV found. It said the ruling conservative New Democracy party would get 20.1%. Both parties have dropped supporters since the election. New Democracy won the vote with 29.6% while SYRIZA came second with 26.9%. The ultra-nationalist Golden Dawn party, which entered parliament for the first time, has ridden a wave of public anger aimed at corrupt politicians, austerity measures and illegal immigration. The poll said it would come third with 10.3%, up from 6.9% in the election. More than half of those polled said their income had dropped and that they struggle to make ends meet. Most Greeks said they do not want a snap election, but 50.4% said a cabinet reshuffle was necessary. Government officials told Reuters on Monday that Samaras would reshuffle his cabinet once he secured the next loan tranche to try to make his government more effective.

Jumbo 3Q “better than expected” Financial results for toys retailer Jumbo came in above estimates in the first quarter of FY12/13 (July 2012 – September 2013), due to lower distribution costs. The company reported sales of EUR 124 mln (+2.84% y-o-y), gross profits came in at 57.5 mln (-0.6% y-o-y), EBITDA settled at 24.5 mln (-4.4% y-o-y), while net profits reached 17.2 mln (-4.2% y-o-y, 10% above estimates). Revenues at home and other countries rose by 1.6% y-o-y in the quarter thanks to the operation of six new stores in Greece. Revenue from the Greek operation declined by a double-digit rate in 1Q13, reflecting the deteriorating consumer sentiment in the home market. Sales from Cyprus grew by 2.9% y-o-y,

NBG to hold new vote on Eurobank Nov 23 Greece’s largest lender National Bank will hold a third and final shareholder meeting next week to vote on its offer to take over rival Eurobank after two previous assemblies did not achieve a quorum. National Bank made a share-swap offer in early October to buy all of rival Eurobank, offering 58 new shares for every 100 Eurobank shares. “There will be a third and final shareholder meeting on November 23,” a National Bank official told Reuters. Completion of the deal will give NBG shareholders 75% of the combined entity, with Eurobank shareholders owning the rest.

while sales from Bulgaria increased by 24% y-o-y due to the contribution of the new store in Rousse. Operating expenses came in at EUR 37.3 mln compared to estimates of 40 mln. Operating cash flow settled at EUR 30.2 mln compared to cash outflows of 1.4 mln due to the decrease of working capital by 7.0 mln. “On the whole, Jumbo delivered resilient financial results despite the tough economic environment in Greece. We feel comfortable with our revenue estimates for FY13, while we should increase our gross margin estimate and net profits of EUR 86.0 mln, 11% above our current estimate,” said Dimitris Birbos, analyst at the Investment Bank of Greece, a Laiki Popular Bank subsidiary.

C/A balance shrinks Greece’s current account deficit in January-September fell by EUR 11.3 bln to 3.46 bln, (-76.5% YoY), while the September current account balance showed for a third consecutive month a surplus of EUR 775 mln compared to a deficit of EUR 1.07 bln in the same month last year, according to Bank of Greece data. “The trade deficit in the 9-month period decreased by EUR 5.3 bln (-25.4% YoY) due to a 3.1 bln decline in the trade deficit excluding oil and ships, a 2.0 bln fall in net payments for purchases of ships and a lower net oil bill by 257 mln,” explained Vassilis Roumantzis, analyst at the Investment Bank of Greece, a Laiki Popular Bank subsidiary. Receipts from exports of goods (excluding oil and ships) rose modestly by 1.8% YoY to EUR 10 bln, while the corresponding import bill declined by 15% YoY to 16.7 bln due to the economic recession. In September, exports (excluding oil and ships) were down 16% YoY to EUR 1.1 bln, while imports (excluding oil and ships) were down 30% YoY to 2.4 bln. In the 9-month period, the surplus of the services balance recorded an increase of 4.9% YoY to EUR 12.6 bln. In September, travel spending in Greece by non-residents was marginally up by 0.7% YoY to EUR 1.62 bln.

OPAP quarterly net down 20% Profit at Greek gaming monopoly OPAP is expected to drop by a fifth in the third quarter, hit by the country’s deep recession. Net profit at the state company, which reports quarterly results this week and is slated for privatisation, was expected to fall to 108.9 mln euros on average, a Reuters poll of eight banks and brokerages showed. Austerity measures taken as part of the country’s international bailout have crimped Greeks’ income, dampening their appetite for gambling. OPAP sales were seen down 11% to 893.2 mln euros amid lower turnover from its flagship Kino game. The company makes the bulk of its revenue from Kino, and its second-biggest game, Stihima. Greece has launched the sale of its stake in OPAP, one of Europe’s biggest listed gaming companies with a total market value of 1.5 bln euros. The company’s shares trade at about 3 times estimated 2012 earnings, compared with a multiple of about 12 for U.K.-based betting firm William Hill, according to ThomsonReuters I/B/E/S estimates. OPAP shares have dropped 31% so far this year, underperforming a 16% rise in the Athens general index over the same period.

Greece sells 500K carbon credits Greece sold 500,000 EU carbon permits from the second phase of the EU’s emissions trading scheme (2008-2012) on Monday at 6.64 euros ($8.48) each, totalling 3.32 mln euros, according to the Athens Stock Exchange, which hosted the auction.

November 21 - 27, 2012




Number Nominal


Shares ('000) Aριθµός µετοχών

Cap. ('000) Kεφαλ. EUR

Value euro Aξία EUR

Book Value Price to Per Share euro Λογιστική αξία


Book Value 2010 Times EUR ('000) Tιµή προς Κέρδη µετά λογιστ. αξ. φορολ.



1 795 141 3 411 086 595 436 74 080 246 214 460 547 80 966

1.00 0.10 0.43 0.35 0.35 0.17 0.35

508 025 180 788 104 797 19 261 11 326 8 290 4 048 836 534

1.25 0.00035 0.78 0.81 0.52 0.24 1.68 0.75

0.23 151.43 0.23 0.32 0.09 0.08 0.03 21.77

306 000 87 100 8 889 3 274 -17 397 -10 243 3 328 380 951



114 252 71 936 182 725 175 000 282 213 13 416 38 750 8 200 45 000 35 000 122 804 48 006

0.34 0.43 0.17 0.34 0.27 0.35 0.17 1.03 0.17 0.35 0.10 0.35

114 320 30 213 30 150 21 875 14 111 14 087 5 038 4 100 4 275 3 710 4 175 2 352 248 405

1.76 3.07 0.28 0.45 0.26 4.69 0.30 3.16 0.09 1.91 0.05 0.53 1.38

0.15 0.14 0.59 0.28 0.19 0.22 0.43 0.16 1.06 0.06 0.72 0.09 0.34



36 572 98 861 158 660 110 358 39 109 15 438 141 692 10 070 108 163 288 141 24 379 208 700 5 140 137 611 3 059 92 079 14 973 80 999 13 506 16 000 348 333 31 344 34 000 4 805 100 000 22 343 7 967 30 978 17 985 20 400 62 446 101 683 43 211 78 415 14 900 424 435 9 660 87 500 22 100 382 440 3 590 297 915 33 000 36 529 66 520 32 500 12 212 20 700 9 788 75 000

0.35 0.26 0.09 0.35 0.35 0.17 0.43 0.35 0.35 0.08 0.17 0.87 0.43 0.43 1.73 0.85 0.43 0.09 0.35 0.62 0.09 0.09 0.29 0.87 0.17 0.34 0.35 0.43 0.31 0.43 0.20 0.35 0.35 0.17 0.14 0.17 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.17 1.73 0.03 0.17 0.43 1.00 0.69 0.34 0.03 0.05 $ 0.10

5 852 15 818 1 587 5 518 25 421 2 933 5 668 201 5 408 2 881 7 314 6 261 1 388 23 394 4 160 34 069 2 096 5 670 810 6 240 3 483 627 4 760 2 306 11 000 447 956 11 462 1 619 12 036 4 371 5 084 7 346 1 568 149 25 466 773 68 250 1 768 19 122 5 421 2 979 1 650 2 192 3 991 7 475 3 175 414 196 75 000 447 775

0.88 0.49 0.02 0.49 0.73 0.80 0.49 0.42 0.39 0.07 0.65 0.09 0.27 2.20 6.13 1.84 0.47 0.28 0.29 0.67 0.04 0.20 0.32 2.55 0.97 -0.05 0.09 3.55 0.41 0.68 0.36 0.80 0.64 0.10 0.02 0.20 0.18 1.31 0.40 0.01 3.35 0.04 0.12 0.48 1.59 2.36 0.41 0.04 0.11 0.20 0.78

0.18 0.32 0.56 0.10 0.89 0.24 0.08 0.05 0.13 0.14 0.46 0.33 1.00 0.08 0.22 0.20 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.58 0.26 0.10 0.43 0.19 0.11 -0.43 1.28 0.10 0.22 0.87 0.20 0.06 0.27 0.20 0.43 0.30 0.44 0.59 0.20 4.07 0.45 0.25 0.42 0.13 0.04 0.10 0.64 0.50 0.18 5.08 0.48

8 848 1 310 4 108 6 309 -47 25 987 -1 903 2 574 -1 453 456 -8 419 71 37 841



1 767 4 363 -5 724 -1 339 4 108 257 -6 512 -622 -3 641 -7 007 -157 1 211 -1 031 -6 432 568 13 270 1 157 2 183 -380 575 -5 602 -980 1 048 614 -1 668 -844 -738 -3 358 -760 969 -2 094 -3 469 -1 746 -4 952 -594 -9 238 313 8 617 11 -5 231 362 14 344 131 -9 983 1 165 -181 -25 -43 -330 -41 634

6M 2011 EUR ('000) Kέρδη 2011

9M '11

6M 2012 EUR ('000) Kέρδη 2012

9M '12

3 024

3 026

3 024

3 026

6M '11 3 010 1 038 448

6M '12 1 535 1 906 386

-27 2 069 -1 021 258 -727 -414 -398 -383 3 853

-2 638 3 665 -570 -919 -448 -691 -1 747 -981 -502

6M '11 840 1 121 -332 -2 979 2 240 417 -3 664 -189 -2 493 -2 739 -6 805 -234 -3 125 -463 1 448 1 239 940 -210 215 -2 944 -111 -161 1 028 3 742 -940 -89 -6 279 323 276 -1 396 -4 233 36 -761 -191 -8 696 -426 4 281 -631 -2 464 -191 -347 234 1 094 -3 875 -787 -151 -16 -22 2 280 -28 586

6M '12 111 887 -325 -3 979 1 457 455 -2 768 -184 -3 871 -2 043 -6 -186 -282 -2 970 -1 653 -1 778 43 597 -208 -684 -3 487 -75 -1 223 -210 -1 012 -1 393 -160 -2 674 -233 -1 095 -840 -4 478 -964 -302 -140 -8 419 -311 2 536 -171 -2 165 -396 -372 -1 427 -1 506 -4 416 -1 074 -132 -133 -13 1 661 -52 011


2011 EUR ('000) Κέρδη µετά φορολ.

P/E ratio 2011

Earnings Per

Dividend Per

Dividend Yield

Share 2011 Cents



Share 2011 Cents

2011 -1 371 000 -3 650 380 -100 658 3 585 -6 894 -82 674 -8 648 -5 216 669

n/a n/a n/a 5.37 n/a n/a n/a 0.12

2011 6 674 -1 174 4 122 245 -1 734 2 133 -1 600 -947 -1 333 759 -2 667 -1 302 3 176

2011 373 2 334 -2 594 -2 121 2 306 570 -3 519 -375 -3 942 -7 654 -65 -3 921 -513 -4 630 -4 127 5 693 1 104 1 604 -526 -257 -212 -15 562 1 608 5 130 -2 198 -110 -3 948 -804 100 -1 392 -6 299 1 345 -3 185 -281 -16 880 -1 314 10 753 -868 -6 352 73 151 546 964 -19 100 1 577 -689 11 -37 2 753 -74 480

4.52 n/a 7.31 89.29 n/a 6.60 n/a n/a n/a 4.89 n/a n/a 9.82

2012 High Low EUR EUR Aνώτατο Kατώτατο

Last Close EUR Kλείσιµο

Price 31/12/2011 EUR Tιµή 31/12/2011

31/12/2011 Ποσ. Μετ. 31/12/2011

% Change


385.85 134.85 365.45

84.53 34.56 116.68

127.79 49.00 207.16

295.94 104.60 196.84

-56.82 -53.15 5.24

377.70 0.755 0.390 0.356 0.340 0.080 0.037 0.120

75.13 0.160 0.030 0.165 0.240 0.046 0.018 0.047

117.58 0.283 0.053 0.176 0.260 0.046 0.018 0.050

286.83 0.61 0.30 0.36 0.27 0.05 0.04 0.12

-59.01 -53.61 -82.15 -51.25 -3.35 -9.80 -51.35 -58.68

Cents -76.37 -107.02 -16.90 4.84 -2.80 -17.95 -10.68





Cents 5.84 -1.63 2.26 0.14 -0.61 15.90 -4.13 -11.55 -2.96 2.17 -2.17 -2.71

Cents 5.80

% 21.97

704.24 0.340 0.570 0.200 0.167 0.070 1.100 0.180 0.650 0.099 0.120 0.047 0.070

573.37 0.230 0.350 0.150 0.120 0.047 0.280 0.130 0.500 0.090 0.080 0.020 0.049

614.55 0.264 0.420 0.165 0.125 0.050 1.050 0.130 0.500 0.095 0.106 0.034 0.049

656.6 0.32 0.35 0.18 0.167 0.06 1.00 0.18 0.63 0.10 0.08 0.05 0.06

-6.40 -17.24 21.74 -7.82 -25.15 -20.63 5.00 -27.78 -20.63 -3.06 27.71 -27.66 -18.33

Cents 1.02 2.36 -1.63 -1.92 5.90 3.69 -2.48 -3.72 -3.64 -2.66 -0.27 -1.88 -9.98 -3.36 -134.91 6.18 7.37 1.98 -3.89 -1.61 -0.68 -45.77 33.47 5.13 -9.84 -1.38 -12.74 -4.47 0.49 -2.23 -6.19 3.11 -4.06 -1.89 -3.98 -13.60 12.29 -3.93 -1.66 2.03 0.05 1.65 2.64 -28.71 4.85 -5.64 0.05 -0.38 3.67







7.00 1.20

10.77 6.32







647.61 0.16 0.16 0.01 0.05 0.65 0.19 0.04 0.02 0.05 0.01 0.30 0.03 0.27 0.17 1.36 0.37 0.14 0.07 0.06 0.39 0.01 0.02 0.14 0.48 0.11 0.02 0.12 0.37 0.09 0.59 0.07 0.05 0.17 0.02 0.01 0.06 0.08 0.78 0.08 0.05 1.51 0.01 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.23 0.26 0.02 0.02 1.00

738.87 0.17 0.16 0.02 0.10 0.83 0.21 0.07 0.02 0.05 0.01 0.31 0.05 0.32 0.18 3.20 0.32 0.17 0.09 0.06 0.38 0.02 0.03 0.15 0.48 0.12 0.03 0.14 0.70 0.09 0.65 0.09 0.08 0.19 0.04 0.01 0.11 0.08 0.52 0.06 0.06 1.62 0.01 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.23 0.26 0.02 0.02 1.00

-12.35 -5.88 0.00 -50.00 -50.00 -21.69 -9.52 -42.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 -3.23 -40.00 -15.63 -5.56 -57.50 15.63 -17.65 -22.22 0.00 2.63 -50.00 -33.33 -6.67 0.00 -8.33 -33.33 -14.29 -47.14 0.00 -9.23 -22.22 -37.50 -10.53 -50.00 0.00 -45.45 0.00 50.00 33.33 -16.67 -6.79 0.00 -37.50 -33.33 -40.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

November 21 - 27, 2012







Book Value

Shares ('000) Aριθµός µετοχών

Value euro Aξία EUR

Cap. ('000) Kεφαλ. EUR

Per Share euro Λογιστική αξία


58 430 56 147 49 385 44 494 200 000 282 483 14 000 56 545 11 000 20 247 2 729 2 729 1 364 13 468


81 202 128 936 99 925 5 055 50 000 1 950 391 155 157 138 7 700 25 000 11 385 47 853 72 562 60 250 2 000 21 827 42 450 61 739 189 377 8 571 67 770 296 665 46 355 54 166 70 220 629 785 38 581 124 009 60 674

Price to


2010 Book Value Times EUR ('000) Tιµή προς Κέρδη µετά λογιστ. αξ. φορολ.



993 6 457 494 5 473 51 600 847 1 246 2 545 473 405 2 183 5 458 709 3 367 82 250

0.0379 0.2771 0.0100 0.2665 0.7501 0.0072 0.0667 0.1633 0.0682 0.0308 1.0430 2.1427 0.6125 0.2300

-55.15 -58.50 0.00 -53.85 -65.60 -58.33 33.43 -72.44 -36.95 -35.06 -23.30 -6.66 -15.10 8.70

812 12 894 4 996 202 3 000 137 7 823 1 571 385 16 250 228 39 239 7 256 7 833 440 218 5 519 9 261 1 894 1 971 14 232 2 967 464 4 875 702 6 298 386 1 240 36 404 189 496

0.1763 0.06 0.02 -1.21 0.12 -3.03 -0.12 -0.20 -0.05 1.30 0.086 0.05 0.29 0.67 0.2208 0.11 0.45 0.06 -0.38 0.41 0.50 -0.27 0.004 0.28 0.000 -0.06 0.05 -0.12 0.43

2010 0.17 0.27 0.10 0.30 0.87 0.02 0.17 0.51 0.51 0.09 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.17

-760 -3 213 -2 533 -10 875 -15 581 -5 227 -6 -12 850 -112 -195 389 -446 -7 -127 -51 543

6M 2011 EUR ('000) Kέρδη 2011

6M 2012 EUR ('000) Kέρδη 2012

6M '11 -59 -1 207 -284 -3 086 -826 -2 488 -12 -3 619 -72 -75

6M '12 -43 -316 -705 -2 885 2 100 -1 489 -12 -873 -136 -82


0.21 0.17 0.35 0.03 0.35 0.35 0.086 0.17 0.12 0.43 0.43 0.87 0.34 0.35 0.43 0.17 0.17 0.06 0.01 0.35 0.17 $0.20 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.04 0.17 0.09 0.57


-94.33 1.67 2.27 -0.03 0.50 -0.02 -0.16 -0.05 -1.09 0.50 0.23 16.40 0.34 0.19 1.00 0.09 0.29 2.65 -0.03 0.56 0.42 -0.04 2.50 0.33 33.33 -0.16 -0.08 1.40

1 804 461

-214 -3 960 -11 422 -1 353 1 542 440 232 -31 800 -335 -1 938 221 -504 -2 203 -703 -180 774 999 -2 378 -7 100 -501 5 981 -50 257 -9 573 93 -173 -50 598 -1 062 -764 -6 534 -173 270 152 345

2011 EUR ('000) Κέρδη µετά φορολ.

P/E ratio 2011

-737 -4 301 -1 465 -10 771 -14 687 -6 357 -255 -9 493 -165 -150 331 -136 -36 -303 -48 525

-241 -4 682

6M '11

6M '12



-5 391 -70 -493 -522 -29 288 -4 033 -79 -449

-16 719 -106 -1 487 -665 -32 125 -4 345 -132 -588

-977 -75

-1 226 -57



-2 708 -173 1 121

-2 452 -196 888

-419 64

6 -111

-12 257

-12 535

-137 -3 801 -59 290

-322 616 -72 939

-27 -12 265 -6 400 -1 856 -7 900 -4 006 -23 885 -9 100 -245 -701 35 -551 -2 754 -77 -180 87 612 -2 656 -11 700 -438 2 076 -32 272 -2 192 -328 -320 -16 501 -1 737 -60 -6 248 -141 589

-92 770

-127 108

-5 478 087

Earnings Per

Dividend Per

Dividend Yield


Share 2011 Cents






Results Cents


-43 -11 771



Cents -1.26 -7.66 -2.97 -24.21 -7.34 -2.25 -1.82 -16.79 -1.50 -0.74 12.13 -4.98 -2.64 -2.25

2012 High Low EUR EUR Aνώτατο Kατώτατο



Last Close EUR Kλείσιµο

Price 31/12/2011 EUR Tιµή 31/12/2011

31/12/2011 Ποσ. Μετ. 31/12/2011

559.06 0.017 0.115 0.010 0.123 0.258 0.003 0.089 0.045 0.043 0.020 0.800 2.000 0.520 0.250

454.51 0.02 0.09 0.03 0.14 0.19 0.01 0.10 0.10 0.04 0.02 0.80 2.00 0.60 0.25

23.00 -15.00 27.78 -66.67 -12.14 35.79 -70.00 -11.00 -55.00 7.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 -13.33 0.00

0.01 0.10 0.05 0.04 0.06 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.05 0.65 0.02 0.82 0.10 0.13 0.22 0.01 0.13 0.15 0.01 0.23 0.21 0.01 0.01 0.09 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.60

0.01 0.11 0.05 0.04 0.06 0.09 0.06 0.01 0.05 0.65 0.02 0.62 0.16 0.11 0.27 0.01 0.13 0.14 0.01 0.23 0.21 0.02 0.01 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.60

-9.09 0.00 0.00 -22.22 -66.67 32.26 -37.50 18.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -

% Change





-0.03 -9.51 -6.40 -36.72 -15.80 -205.44 -6.11 -5.79 -3.18 -2.80 0.31 -1.15 -3.80 -0.13 -9.00 0.40 1.44 -4.30 -6.18 -5.11 3.06 -10.88 -4.73 -0.61 -0.46 -2.62 -4.50 -0.05 -10.30









source: Eurivex Ltd. NAV: Net Asset Value

PAT:Profit After Tax

Bold: Final results

EPS: Earnings per Share based on existing number of shares. P/E: Price to Earnings ratio. Weighted P/E ratio: Calculated based on market cap weighting of profit reporting companies, Book Value: According to our estimates. N/A Indicates Not Applicable, Price 31/12/2009 is the closing price or in case of New Listings the opening price.



No. of Shares (000) 1 690 1 950 300 000 1 575 100 000 8 057 1 200 35 052 3 400 321 10 906 1 810 8 390 6 500 18 568

Market Cap EUR (000) 11 830 36 855 270 000 5 513 75 000 21 834 14 280 42 062 3 400 1 611 43 624 2 552 14 263 10 010 48 834 589 839

Latest price EUR 7.00 18.90 0.90 3.50 0.75 2.71 11.90 1.20 1.00 5.02 4.00 1.41 1.70 1.54 2.63

Nominal Value EUR 0.30 0.01 0.10 0.30 0.50 1.00 0.01 0.25 0.10 1.00 0.32 1.00 0.01 0.20 0.59

Listing Date 29/3/10 29/3/10 29/3/10 29/3/10 06/8/10 21/7/11 10/9/10 10/10/11 2/11/11 10/04/12 28/06/12 29/06/12 17/07/12 11/09/12 17/10/12


Ignores weighted number of shares in circulation Forecasted profits are liable to change without notice and responsibility

No. of warrants (000) 24831 17606

Mkt Cap (00) 25 176 224

CSE Code No. of Bonds

Exercise Period

Exercise Price euro cents

Expiry Date

20-30 Jun 2001-2015 1-15 May & 1-15 Nov 07-13

173 20c or EUR 35c

30-06-2005 15-11-2013

Latest Close 0.001 0.010


1 040

Market Cap EUR 104 000 000

Latest price EUR 100 000

Listing Date 8 Nov 2011

Latest NAV N/A

Kappasquare Ltd Nugreat Ltd Zetadynamic Ltd


17 000 23 000 9 000

1 700 000 2 300 000 900 000

100 100 100

30 Mar 2012 30 Mar 2012 30 Mar 2012


Akcern Ltd


2 001

200 100


9 May 2012


DISCLAIMER: The information, comments, analyses and financial data published in this newspaper were obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed and may change without notice. Any of the information or opinions published herein should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell investments. No liability is accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this publication.

November 21 - 27, 2012


Investors near ‘cliff’ with bungee cord WALL ST WEEKAHEAD The 1987 crash. The Y2K bug. The debt ceiling debacle of 2011. All these events, in the end, turned out to be buying opportunities for stocks. The “fiscal cliff” will be as well, some investors say as they watch favorite stocks tumble during the political give-and-take happening in Washington. The first round of talks aimed at avoiding the “fiscal cliff” caused a temporary rise in equities on Friday, signalling Wall Street’s recent declines could be a buying opportunity. The gains were small and sentiment remains weak, but it suggests hope for market bulls. Although stocks ended moderately higher on Friday, it was not enough to offset losses for the week. The S&P 500 was down 1.5%, while both the Dow and the Nasdaq fell 1.8%. The S&P 500 is down more than 5% in the seven sessions that followed President Barack Obama’s re-election. Uncertainty arose as attention turned to Washington’s task of dealing with mandated tax increases and spending cuts that could take the U.S. economy back into recession. Some see the market’s move as an overreaction to hyperbolic headlines about policy gridlock in Washington, believing stocks may start to rebound in what should be a quiet few days ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. “It just doesn’t seem to make any sense that you suddenly wake up the day after the election and realize we’ve got a fiscal cliff,” said Krishna Kumar, partner at New York hedge fund Goose Hollow Alpha Advisors. Not long ago, the S&P was on target for its second-best year in the last ten, riding a 17% advance in 2012. That has been halved to about 8%, which isn’t bad but disappointing compared with just a month ago. Investors have been selling the year’s winners. Apple is down 25% from its peak above $700. General Electric is down 14%; Google has lost 16%. Overall, the stocks that make up the top 10% of performers in the month prior to Election Day have

been the worst performers since, according to Bespoke Investment Group of New York. “I think it’s a good opportunity to be long stocks at these levels,” Kumar said. Increases on capital gains and dividend taxes are on the line, and Obama has dug in his heels on what he sees as a mandate to make the tax code more progressive. He seems to have the upper hand in dealings with Congress because Republican lawmakers don’t want to see tax rates rise, which is what will happen if no solution is found by the beginning of 2013. Republicans don’t want to take the blame for driving the economy over the cliff. The current crisis is similar to last year’s fight to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, which led to the downgrade of the United States’ top credit rating in early August 2011. During the dealings, the S&P 500 lost 18.8% between its peak in July 2011 and its bottom in August. As the market slid, the political standoff badly hurt investors’ confidence in Washington, setting off a spike in volatility. In the end a deal was announced that raised the ceiling and put off longer-term fiscal decisions until January 1, 2013, setting the stage for today’s “fiscal cliff” crisis. After staying flat through September 2011, the S&P 500 jumped 31% between its October low and the end of March.

BUY THE DIP? Gridlock in Washington and all that could possibly go wrong with the economy if a deal is not reached have grabbed the headlines, but the negotiations leave room for stock market gains. Congressional leaders said they would work through the Thanksgiving holiday recess to find a solution. “The debate over how to solve (the fiscal cliff) may be more productive than is commonly recognized,” said Brad Lipsig, a senior portfolio manager at UBS Financial Services in New

York. “The U.S. is facing a major debt overhang, and serious steps toward addressing it might ultimately be viewed as a positive for future growth,” he said. “The market may recognize this and, after a time of hand wringing, recover from the concerns with a renewed sense of optimism.” The recent selling took the S&P 500’s relative strength - a technical measure of internal strength - below 30 last week, indicating the benchmark is oversold and due for a rebound. The RSI in four of the ten S&P sectors - utilities, telecoms, consumer staples and technology - is below 30 and the highest RSI reading, for the consumer discretionary sector, is below 40, suggesting a bounce is in store. “What I want to do is what we did during the decline following the budget negotiations in the summer of 2011: The lower the stock market goes, the more I want to own stock,” said Brian Reynolds, chief market strategist at New York-based Rosenblatt Securities. “If we go off the cliff it will be with a bungee cord attached,” he said.

KEEP CALM AND HEDGE Volatility is expected to rise through the end of November and to spike in late December if no agreement on the fiscal cliff is reached in Congress. Alongside comes opportunity for those with high risk tolerance.As the fiscal cliff drama plays out, it will be worthwhile to watch the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, Wall Street’s favourite barometer of investor anxiety.

Financial Mirror 21Nov 2012