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September 19 - 25, 2012

2 | NEWS

Investors pressure Spain to seek aid l

Yields remain high at short-term debt auction; stocks fall sharply

Investors on Tuesday piled pressure on Spain to request international aid and trigger a European Central Bank bondbuying programme seen as inevitable to help the country finance its debt, with the benchmark 10-year bond rising to just over 6%. Yields at the latest debt sale fell slightly from last month but remained at 2.835% on the 12-month bill and at 3.072% on the 18-month paper, offering little hope the country can finance itself at reasonable levels without seeking assistance. The blue-chip Spanish index Ibex lost 1.1%, ending a twoweek rally that began after the ECB said it was ready to help distressed euro zone countries. Spain is at the centre of the euro zone debt crisis, now in its third year, with investors concerned that Madrid is unable to bring down its massive public deficit and control its soaring debt. The government has already requested a European lifeline of up to 100 bln euros for its banks, but investors are not convinced that the country can meet its financial obligations and return to economic growth without international assistance. ECB Governing Council member Luc Coene warned Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy against delaying triggering the pro-

gramme on Monday, saying it would not take long for yields to rise if he did. The country’s benchmark 10-year bond rose to around 6.03% before Tuesday’s auction from 5.65% just ten days ago. FRUSTRATION The Spanish Treasury, taking advantage of improved market conditions since the ECB announced the programme, sold more than the top end of its target of between 3.5 bln and 4.5 bln euros of 12- and 18-month T-bills. Although it was the highest amount sold at a T-bill auction since March and yields were slightly lower than a month earlier, demand for the paper was mixed and yields topped those in the grey market before the auction just a day earlier. Investor frustration is likely to lead to demands for high premiums again at a bond auction on Thursday of 4.5 bln euros of a new bond maturing 2015 and the benchmark 2022 bond. The waiting game is a typical gambit for the cautious Rajoy, who is known for dragging out decisions as long as he can, both to seek the best political timing and to tire out opponents. After he was elected last year he confounded market expectations by taking his time in announcing key cabinet members

who would handle economic policy. Earlier this year, despite heavy pressure from Brussels, he delayed presenting his tough 2012 budget until after elections in the country’s most populous region, to try not to spook voters with spending cuts. Some analysts believe he may mow be waiting until after the October 21 regional elections, including in his home state of Galicia and the Basque Country, before taking a decision. Rajoy’s cautious style is not winning him much support and his popularity has plummeted since he took power in December. A widening fiscal gap and mounting pressure from the business community and credit ratings agencies however leave Spain with little or no choice but to request European aid. Rajoy has already passed austerity measures worth 10% of GDP up to the end of 2014 and is reluctant to hand control to inspectors from the ECB, European Commission and IMF. Adding to the country’s problems, Spanish banks, awaiting the first funds from the 100-bln-euro European credit line, are coming under increased stress as bad loans rose to a record high in July and deposits from domestic companies and Spanish residents dropped.

Lawsuit threatens $10 bln Dubai Group debt deal l

Devalued stake in Laiki Group could be up for grabs

Three banks have begun legal proceedings against an investment vehicle owned by Dubai’s ruler in an unprecedented move to secure repayment of loans in the Gulf state that could delay a wider deal on restructuring $10 bln of debt. Royal Bank of Scotland launched the action against Dubai Group with German lender Commerzbank and South Africa’s Standard Bank. Dubai Group, a unit of Dubai Holding, the investment arm of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, was hit hard by the global financial crisis in 2008 due to excessive use of leverage in its investments and a sharp decline in asset values, including its then-25% stake in the Marfin Popular Group, renamed Cyprus Popular Group. Since missing interest payments on two loan facilities in 2010, Dubai has been locked in talks with its lenders to extend repayment deadlines. It wants time for asset values to recover before making sales in order to pay back its debts. RBS said it was forced to act after several concessions

offered to Dubai Group failed to secure a solution. COMPLEXITY Given the complexity, and the lack of precedent, it would take a lot of time to work through the case but the three could secure a favourable outcome, according to one Gulfbased lawyer. The case would have to overcome a number of hurdles to reach that point, including a rare challenge to the structure behind the Islamic financing facility which the three banks provided, which could have wide-ranging implications for Islamic banking. And if they secure a positive outcome from arbitration, the three banks would be unable to secure assets locally - UAE law prohibits foreign ownership of land, while businesses outside free zones must be majority-owned by a local partner - meaning they would have to pursue assets in other jurisdictions.

“A favourable judgment in a UK court opens the prospect for the attachment of Dubai Group’s international assets, pitting them against the other consenting banks,” said Ahmad Alanani, a senior executive at investment bank Exotix in Dubai. The filing comes at a time when others banks involved in the restructuring are considering a proposal, put to them before the summer, which would see debt extensions ranging from 3.5 to 12 years. Dubai Group aims to secure an agreement by year-end and is offering a signing fee to banks if the restructuring is in place by then. It is in talks with a number of parties about selling its 45% stake in Lafarge Emirates Cement. Other financial assets include stakes in Egypt’s EFG Hermes and the Popular Bank, whose recapitalisation forced Cyprus to seek a bailout. Of the $10 bln total debt, $6 bln is owed to banks and the remaining $4 bln is classed as inter-company loans.

Greece becoming more competitive, must stay in euro, says Juncker Greece’s competitiveness has greatly improved and its wage costs have fallen significantly and the euro zone must strive to keep the country as a member, the chairman of the Eurogroup of finance ministers said on Tuesday. “It is not the case that the programmes (for Greece) have been ineffective,” Jean-Claude Juncker told Bavarian television. “(A Greek exit) from the euro would be disastrous for

the Greeks... Europe as a whole would be weakened too.” Some politicians in Germany and elsewhere have publicly suggested that Greece, with a heavy debt load and now in its fifth year of recession, might fare better outside the euro zone. Juncker also said the euro zone would make “really tough” demands of Spain on structural reforms and budget savings.

Madrid is coming under growing market pressure to request aid from the eurozone’s bailout fund to help finance its debts. Juncker, who is also prime minister of Luxembourg, said plans for a new banking union had to be very carefully prepared and, echoing German concerns, added that it was difficult to envisage how the new supervisory body could oversee all 6,000 or so banks in the euro zone from the start.

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September 19 - 25, 2012


Bailout or no bailout? Juncker, Lagarde: Make up your mind” The heads of the two lenders from which Cyprus hopes to get the green light for a 5 bln euro bailout have been critical of the government’s continued delay to come up with a concrete austerity plan to support any financial aid, whether from the European Union or from Russia. Both Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker and IMF chief Christine Lagarde also expressed their displeasure that the draft proposals of the ‘troika’ inspectors were leaked to the local media, probably in an effort to garner popular support for the government that wants a softer package so as not to upset its voter base. “You have had the troika’s proposals since July. You should have clarified your position and not leaked the document a few days before the Eurogroup meeting,” Juncker is supposed to have told Finance Minister Vassos Shiarly during the Eurozone finance ministers’ meeting in Nicosia. But Lagarde put it more bluntly, telling Cyprus to clarify its intentions: “Do you need economic support or are you waiting for the Russian loan?” Officials in Moscow have also been hesitant to throw an immediate lifeline, unsure if its first loan for 2.5 bln euros will be repaid. Russia’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov was recently quoted as saying that an agreement was unlikely any time soon on a loan to Cyprus, leaving the island no viable immediate alternative to a troika bailout. Political analysts also suggest that the Kremlin’s delay has more to do with the island’s second licensing round for natural gas exploration, the wining bidders for which are expected to be announced next month. Moscow is probably holding back any pledge to bail out Cyprus until it sees if the government will keep its word and award at least one license to a consortium with Russian partners. The delay also pushes Cyprus closer to a default collapse with officials in Nicosia thinking that due to the size of the bailout, estimated at 10-15 bln euros, is more manageable and could be tapped from the European Stability Mechanism that comes into force in October with an arsenal of 500 bln euros. In any case, Finance Minister Shiarly is betting on the third visit of the troika inspectors from the EU, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund within the next fortnight, that will also coincide with his first Budget that will be tabled to parliament and should include a significant cutback in public spending, job reductions and a deficit of 3%, revised from earlier estimates of 0.5%. Shiarly said he will invite the troika in order to conclude on the first memorandum of understanding with a complete bailout package “within a month to month and a half”. In a draft document leaked to the press last week, lenders said they wanted pension reforms, privatisations, a 15% cut in the

Meeting in Nicosia on Monday, Central Bank Governor Panicos Demetriades said that “although the exact size of the banks’ capital shortfall is expected to be determined by December 2012 following a diagnostic study, it is more than evident that a significant support package will be needed to bail out banks.” “Global financial integration and the EU single market have enabled the banking sector in some member states to outgrow national GDP many times over, resulting in institutions which are “too-big-to-fail” and “too-big-to-save” under existing national arrangements. Cyprus is a prime example of that,” he added.

state payroll by the end of 2013, a 10% cut in benefits, slashing the 13th salaray for civil servants and the abolition of the inflation-linked wage indexation (COLA) in the public sector. Proposals for salary cuts in the public sector, and suggestions to increase their contributions towards pensions - they now pay less than those in the private sector - may prove difficult to digest for the left-wing government, which faces a general election in five months’ time. Instead, it wants to hike the corporation tax, a proposal that was met with swift criticism from the business community. Alternatively, it may increase VAT by one percentage point to 18%. Deflecting from the government inability to contain public spending, President Demetris Christofias once again last week blamed the “greed and mistakes of bankers and mistakes in supervision” for its present predicament. The island’s two largest banks are heavily exposed to Greece, having launched aggressive expansion plans there in the past 15 years to offset a saturated market domestically. However, the combined immediate needs of both Laiki Popular Bank and Bank of Cyprus do not exceed 2.5 bln, with the rest of the bailout expected to keep the government machine afloat until the presidential elections in February 2013. In a speech at the Informal EU Financial Services Attachés

EU think tank calls for deficit leeway All European Union countries under surveillance for exceeding budget deficit limits should be given an extra year to meet their goals, Bruegel, an influential think-tank whose proposals often inform EU policy, said in a paper on Monday. Extra time would allow the countries to better balance the need for economic growth with the demands of austerity and so regain market confidence after almost three years of the sovereign debt crisis, Bruegel said. Of the EU’s 27 countries, 21 are under what is known as the excessive deficit procedure, which means they face disciplinary action and potentially fines if they fail to bring their budget deficits below 3% of GDP in time. Most have to reach the goal by 2013, while several have a 2012 deadline and others a 2014 or 2015 target. Among the 17 countries that make up the euro zone, 13 are under such procedure and two — Spain and Portugal — have already been granted one-year extensions because of their weak economic growth. “A one-year extension to the deadline for deficit correction may be granted in case of negative growth in the EU, or in specific countries,” Bruegel scholars Benedicta Marzinotto and Andre Sapir wrote in the policy brief. “For 2012, given the general economic situation, the oneyear extension should be granted to all countries before they finalise their budgets for 2013,” said the paper. Bruegel, set up in 2005, is widely regarded as the most

influential EU think-tank dealing with economic issues and has been ranked as the world’s third most prominent thinktank. Its economists and policy experts are frequently invited to brief EU officials and provide input to policy debates. In their paper, the Bruegel economists said a decision to extend the deadline had to be taken promptly. “Thereafter, it is only important that the decision is taken earlier than normal, ideally at the beginning of April, and that it is mostly in the hands of the Commission, as are other steps in the Excessive Deficit Procedure,” they said. The EU substantially toughened its budget rules late last year to include swifter financial sanctions against countries which spend too much. The so-called “six-pack” rules are designed to prevent another sovereign debt crisis. But the huge austerity effort across the euro zone, meant to regain market confidence in public finances, is one of the main factors behind a sharp economic slowdown across Europe, which is likely to become a recession later this year. “The strengthening of the European Union’s fiscal rules... and the parallel worsening of economic conditions in Europe, re-opened the debate about the relationship between fiscal discipline and growth,” Bruegel said. “Influential voices have argued against the EU’s perceived obsession with fiscal discipline, which risks being self-defeating in bad times,” it said.

EXPEDITE TALKS “I think Cyprus and the troika have to speed up the process, with no time to lose and I am very confident that an answer to problems of this country, and they are very serious, will be found in the next coming weeks,” Juncker told reporters after the Eurogroup meeting in Nicosia.“We had a good and productive engagement about the ongoing discussions concerning Cyprus,” Lagarde told reporters after meeting President Christofias, without elaborating. Asked about the timing of any bailout deal, Christofias said: “When we are ready.” Cyprus intends to counter the troika’s proposals with proposals of its own, a government official said. Authorities plan to consult political parties and labour unions, a move the official said would give authorities a stronger hand in negotiations. Following a cabinet meeting on Monday that discussed the 2013 budget, government spokesman Stefanos Stefanou said the aim is for next year’s deficit to be under 3.0%, but he did not rule out changes when Cyprus agrees on a programme with its international lenders. The government is also expected to request a longer adjustment period - five years - instead of the standard three. Both Stefanou and Shiarly said that the state can cover its needs for the next three months, responding to a report that the state had a 530 mln euro shortfall to cover by the end of this year. Shiarly denied the report: “The possibility of a default is unrealistic.” SOCIAL COHESION European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn agreed that social cohesion is important. “We feel that social fairness is a very important principle of European integration. It is a core European principle, so we see that as Cyprus is facing economic reforms and fiscal adjustment, it is very important to maintain social fairness. It’s a key principle to this process,” he said after meeting President Christofias. But he tiptoed around a question on when he thought Cyprus and the troika might sign a deal. “... we have been discussing about how to best overcome the economic challenges of Cyprus. The European Commission stands by Cyprus in these troubled times and we are in the negotiation process of how to overcome this difficult period,” he told reporters at the presidential palace.

September 19 - 25, 2012


MTN breaks 300,000 barrier; new stores, new products MTN Cyprus, the island’s alternative telecoms provider, has broken past the psychological barrier of 300,000 subscribers, with the telco announcing further expansion of its 26-store network and the launch of new products. The company’s CEO Pieter Verkade, speaking at the recently refurbished “advanced technology” MTN Store on Ledra Street in Nicosia said that the provider also introduced a new, flexible subscriber plan, which provides total cost control to the client. The company, a partnership between global telecom provider MTN Group with 150 mln subscribers and the NK Shacolas Group in Cyprus, also plans to open new MTN Stores “as the ultimate destination for tech lovers. The new MTN Stores allow visitors to edit, test and play with the top devices market can offer: smartphones, tablets, laptops, notebooks, mobile phones and accessories,” Verkade said.

The devices, he explained, are connected to the respective operating system allowing the visitor to gain complete user experience. Furthermore, the devices are associated with innovative and smart gadgets / accessories for any use: music, games, communication etc As regards cost control, MTN introduced an innovative program, the MTN Up2U 10+ plan which is a hybrid plan that adapts to any need. It gives the subscriber the power to set his monthly credit limit and change it whenever and as many times as he wants, adapting it to his own needs. For the first time in Cyprus, a telecoms company gives the customer the absolute control of his plan, Verkade added. MTN’s CEO said market share increased to 32% this year, the subscriber base grew by 15% compared with the same period last year, while data usage saw a 28% increase and doubling of sales since last year (YTD).

MTN Cyprus employs 400 people and is primary sponsor of the APOEL football team that reached the Champion’s League elite playoffs last season.

Green Line spending shrinks in 2012 Both Greek and Turkish Cypriots spending less

Agapinor offers guaranteed capital growth investment Agapinor Hotel & Shops Complex in Paphos has launched its Special Guaranteed Capital Investment offer in an effort to lure investors away from banks, offering a guaranteed yield of 5-5.75% paid each year for investors willing to engage in a minimum 5-year tie in. Further investments for 7 years yield 5.5% and for 10 years 5.75%. The investment will be delivered without any tax or statutory deductions and carries a minimum commitment of 55,000 euros. The principal capital investment will be returned intact at the maturity date of the investment period. The funds reaised will be reinvested for further expansion of the hotel and shops complex by three extra floors to cater to growing demand due to increased flights by operators such as Ryanair, a business investment climate because of the natural gas discoveries and subsequent exploration, as well as an increase in tourist arrivals from Russia and the Ukraine.

Shop, travel with Aegean Visa Alpha Bank and Aegean have created the new Aegean Visa credit card for purchases in Cyprus and abroad, whereby the card holder collects miles, which can then be redeemed for airline tickets and other services as part of the Aegean Miles&Bonus Loyalty Programme and the Star Alliance Miles&More loyalty scheme. For every 1 euro spend using the Aegean Visa, the card holder earns 2 miles for ticket purchases at Aegean, or 2 miles for purchases at Cyprus Airports Duty Free stores or 1 mile for purchases anywhere in Cyprus and abroad. The new Aegean Visa also offers 5.000 bonus miles upon card issuance, enrollment in Aegean’s Miles &Bonus as a Blue Member, option to redeem miles at other Aegean Miles&Bonus partners, free subscription for a year and free travel insurance for tickets [purchased using Aegean Visa.

Card spending over the GREEN LINE CARD SPENDING, JAN-AUG Card spending by Greek Cypriots (defined as use of Green Line has shrunk in both directions so far this Turkish Cypriot spending local credit cards in occupied 2011 2012 % change year, according to analysis Clothing areas) dropped even further, 2 073 795 1 894 186 -8.7 of data provided by JCC DIY 1 643 283 1 794 436 9.2 by 6% in January-August to EUR 3.36 mln, from EUR 3.58 Payment Systems. 861 784 790 519 -8.3 Department stores Cumulative card Supermarkets mln in the same period of 2 456 595 2 437 721 -0.8 spending by Turkish Total 2011. 11 531 231 11 343 068 -1.6 Cypriots (defined as The biggest drop here was recorded in spending on Turkish credit cards) Greek Cypriot spending 2011 2012 % change casinos (down 39%). dropped by 1.6% in Airlines 607 516 756 302 24.5 January-August to EUR Entertainment Spending in Turkey also fell 934 365 570 025 -39.0 11.34 mln, from EUR Hotels 1 137 931 1 234 466 8.5 slightly in the first eight months of the year, by 0.9% to 11.53 mln in January- Total occ areas 3 578 860 3 364 015 -6.0 Turkey 3 326 871 3 296 738 -0.9 August 2011. EUR 3.30 mln. 6 905 729 6 660 752 -3.5 The main drop was in Occ areas and Turkey Despite lack of diplomatic spending on clothing relations with Turkey, Greek Cypriots have spent almost as (down 8.7% year on year) Source: JCC (data), Sapienta Economics (analysis). and department stores much money in Turkey this (down 8.3%). year as they have in northern Cyprus. Fiona Mullen However, spending on DIY increase by 9.2% in the same period.

Tourism: Russia soars, UK disappoints in Aug Tourism arrivals climbed by 7.9% in the key month of August, reaching 363,573 compared with 337,013 in August 2011. The biggest increase among larger markets was Russia, with arrivals rising by 55.5% compared with the same month of the previous year to 79,291 in August 2012. Russia is the second largest market after the UK. There was also a healthy increase of 13.8% to 13,616 of arrivals from Germany, the third largest market, and a 6.9% increase to 18,545 of arrivals from Sweden, the fifth largest market after Greece. Two of the large markets underperformed, however. There was a drop of 7.0% in tourist arrivals from the United Kingdom to 146,136 and a 7.8% fall in arrivals from recession-stricken Greece to 12,251. The Statistical Service has now made estimates for arrivals from selected major markets in March. A Passenger Survey was not conducted in March because the budget for casual staff had not been approved by the opposition-

TOURISM ARRIVALS UK Russia Germany Greece Israel Gulf countries Total

Jan-Aug Jan-Aug % change 2011 2012 716 547 671 585 -6.3 238 577 336 240 40.9 97 663 94 755 -3.0 96 487 91 301 -5.4 22 364 28 568 27.7 12 475 11 829 -5.2 1 669 973 1 728 762 3.5

Source: Statistical Service.

dominated House Finance Committee. For the period January - August 2012 including March, arrivals of tourists rose by 3.5% to 1,728,766 compared with 1,669,887 in the corresponding period of 2011.

ES enjoys exam successes The English School in Nicosia has much to celebrate with the release of results in the U.K.’s IGCSE, AS and A Level examinations in the last few weeks. Results this year have been in line with the high standards achieved in previous years and in a year when UK schools have seen a slight decline, from 2011 to 2012, in the numbers of students

achieving the top grades of A* and A, the percentage of ES students achieving these grades has increased. In 2011, 61% of English School students achieved A Level grades of A* or A, while in 2012, that figure is 65% with a higher rate of offers of acceptance from British universities.

September 19 - 25, 2012


Cyprus business needs Troika help or re-domiciliation to secure cheaper funding There comes a time when faced with difficulty, every CEO of a business organization has to take painful but necessary decisions and action to ensure that the business survives. The CEO of Cyprus is President Christofias and despite warning signs that the country needs to take decisive action to overcome the difficulties it is facing, he has chosen to stay numb and silent and do absolutely nothing. The recent comments made by his Finance Minister Vassos Shiarly that the country does not face funding problems until the end of the year is very worrisome, since it gives the feeling that the country’s CEO is bidding for time until the February 2013 elections, by which time he will have left office and thus is hoping that the decision to ask for funding assistance from the Troika will be left to the next President. I have been calling for Troika assistance since the beginning of the year, believing that under the supervision of the Troika, Cyprus stands a better chance of putting its finances in order, undergo painful but necessary labour market reforms and once again become competitive and productive. My “love for Troika” is based on a firm belief that none of the current Cypriot politicians can be trusted to the job right, since the economic ills of Cyprus have been caused by the political parties, irrespective of colour or ideology, who over the years have filled up government, semigovernmental and other positions with their sympathizers, giving them unrealistic salary pay increases and other perks and in the process have managed to make the country unproductive, expensive and lacking vision. While the politicians can do as they please thinking about themselves and their parties,

the same cannot be said for Cyprus businesses that are increasingly saddled with the mistakes of others, including the banks and the government. Cyprus business is faced with the stark choice of either no funding from the banks or for the very few, limited funding but at a very high cost. As was natural to expect, most businesses have already done several rounds of belt-tightening, cost-cutting including layoffs and shedding unnecessary expenses, but there is a limit to cost-cutting and it is obvious that

SHAVASB BOHDJALIAN Certified Investment Advisor and CEO of Eurivex Ltd.

without access to capital markets and bank financing, Cyprus businesses cannot function and survive. One would expect that our beloved politicians would also take this factor into consideration when deciding the timing of applying for Troika assistance, but it seems very likely that this government does not have the courage to take decisive action. This leaves Cyprus entrepreneurs no other choice but to resort to alternative methods of financing, including direct approach to investors, such as issue of shares or bonds, or in the case of major businesses seriously consider re-domiciliation to another jurisdiction through which they can secure financing from institutional investors and then invest the proceeds of the issue in the promising projects in Cyprus.

For example, the owners of a major Cyprus project in which foreign investors would be interested to participate, could establish a new holding company in Austria which still enjoys a ‘AA’ grade from the rating agencies, list the shares or bonds of the Austrian holding company on the Vienna Stock Exchange and subject to full transparency and reporting, invest the proceeds of the issue in the promising project in Cyprus. Foreign investors would be more than happy to invest in the Austrian entity which has a listing on the Vienna Stock Exchange with the full knowledge that the proceeds of the issue will be invested in Cyprus or Greece rather than have a direct exposure to a Cyprus based entity. Until now Cypriots had been doing the reverse - calling on foreign companies to use Cyprus as a base for their investments into Russia, Ukraine, India and China taking advantage of the numerous advantages of Cyprus, but now, the time has come for Cypriots to do the reverse in order to secure financing for promising and innovative projects. (Eurivex Ltd. is a Cyprus Investment Firm, authorized and regulated by CySEC, license #114/10 and approved to act as Listing Agent on behalf of Issuers wishing to list their securities on the Vienna Stock Exchange. Eurivex is also approved to act as Nominated Advisor for listings on the Emerging Companies Market of the Cyprus Stock Exchange. Eurivex offers complete packages and solutions for all types of listings including structuring assistance. The views expressed above are personal and do not bind the company and are subject to change without notice)

Laiki appoints Chris Pavlou as non-exec Vice Chair l

Takis Phidia is Acting CEO, Kounnis steps down The Cyprus Popular Bank, effectively nationalised after a 1.8 bln euro state bailout, announced that the board of directors elected Chris Pavlou as nonexecutive Vice Chairman. Chris Pavlou, an expert on treasury whose career has included executive positions in Barclays, HSBC and TFI, used to be on the bank’s board representing the 23% stake held by HSBC until 2004. He was reappointed by the government after the previous board was removed as part of the rescue deal. The bank also announced that Takis Phidia, CEO of CNP Laiki Insurance Holdings has taken over as Acting Group CEO, replacing Group CEO Christos Stylianides who is on medical leave. Deputy CEO Panayiotis Kounnis resigned from the bank and gave up his board seat last week in a flurry of resignations and early retirements. Taking charge of banking operations is Doros Ktorides.

September 19 - 25, 2012


Disy’s utopian economic policy EDITORIAL The main opposition Democratic Rally seems to have watered down some of its economic policies for the sake of securing a coalition deal with the centre-right Democratic Party in time for the next elections in February 2013. Diko is a party entrenched within the civil service because of the jobs and favours generously handed out from the days of Spyros Kyprianou and Tassos Papadopoulos, and is vehemently opposed to any privatisation of public services, such as the telco Cyta, the power utility EAC, the post office, and more, where unions (and votes) are strong. It is a shame that Disy leader and presidential hopeful Nicos Anastassiades has adopted the Diko line and has even spoken in defence of keeping the quangos intact, where productivity starts at 7.30am and efficiency stops at

2.30pm. If that were the case, why did we introduce the institution of independent regulators who are supposedly there to ensure ‘fair competition’ between the state-owned enterprises and other private providers? Ironically, it was the Disy deputy leader who had suggested some years back that Cyta, for example, be split in two – the state-controlled infrastructure owner and the privatised commercial operator where the taxpayer would have a significant, if any, stake. More recently, Mr Anastassiades decided to throw his full support behind the civil service, saying a few months ago, that it was the system that was to blame and not the people manning the bureaucratic stations. Is this not the same Disy leader who has oft criticised the current administration of hiring more people in government instead of cutting back? Anastassiades also missed a golden opportunity and

avoided slamming the Christofias government for its incompetence and shabby handling of the economy, for fear that if/when he fills the same shoes of the president, he might become the victim of ruthless critique from the admittedly better-organised Akel-PEO syndicate. However, the icing on the Disy leader’s economic cake came from a mildly worded disclaimer last week, that could have passed had the whole matter been ignored – MP and economist Costas Mavrides said during a radio talk show that he was “disgusted” by the way civil servants abuse the state welfare system through the various benefits they receive, as opposed to the private sector employees who get nothing. With the union-led uproar that ensued, Disy was quick to distance itself from one of the few people within its camp who have a clear view of the real economy. Has Mr Anastassiades succumbed to union bullying? Will the real Nicos Anastassiades please stand up?

The Great Depression - Are We Repeating History? During his address to the Democratic Convention, President Obama gave a strong hint as to his future economic direction, if re-elected. He referred approvingly to the “new deal” programme of former President Franklin D. Roosevelt who led the country out of the great 1929 depression with huge infrastructure investments. Roosevelt’s new deal was in contrast to the policies of his predecessor, President Hoover, who led the country into the great depression. On leaving office in 1932, Hoover’s advice to the incoming President was the following: “It would steady the country greatly if there could be prompt assurance that there will be no tampering or inflation of the currency; that the budget will be unquestionably balanced even if further taxation is necessary; that the government credit will be maintained by refusal to exhaust it in the issue of securities.” (*John K. Galbraith, The Great Crash 1929, London (Penguin Books) 1954.) Does that sound familiar? Does it have the ring of austerity about it? Certainly there is nothing here that could not be wholeheartedly endorsed by the Bundesbank whose policies on inflation, balanced budgets and the issue of securities have been the main influence on the German “austerity school” of economics adopted by the Euro zone. BUDGETS AND DEBT Then as now, the question of balanced budgets and government debt were at the centre of the debate on economic policy. President Roosevelt’s “new deal” required substantial investment during a time of depression and greatly reduced incomes.

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His government borrowed and invested heavily in education, roads, dams, electricity and many other public works programmes. The national debt rose (approximately tripling as a percentage of GDP between 1930 and 1940) but the economy climbed out of the greatest recession the world has known (until perhaps the current one).

By Dr. JIM LEONTIADES Cyprus International Institute of Management

The Euro zone greatly restricts the powers of national governments as regards national debt. The new “fiscal compact” which is in the process of being adopted as the major new policy document of the Euro zone would restrict them even further. The new fiscal compact requires that national debt be limited to 60% of GDP. Annual structural deficits would be limited to just one half of a percentage point of GDP. Robert Skidelsky, the prize winning economist, calls this “utterly wrong”. A number of Nobel Prize winners and much of the elite of the economic profession agree. DEBT AS AN ECONOMIC TOOL The size of a nation’s deficit is important and, as in the case of Greece, can exceed any reasonable limit if not carefully controlled. But economic conditions are subject to sudden change. Does a .05% limit on national deficits provide governments with sufficient flexibility to manage their finances? Readers will recall that neither Germany nor France were able to stay within the more generous deficit guidelines set out in the Stability and Growth pact (permitting annual deficits of 3% or less).

In 1930, before Roosevelt’s new deal, the US national debt was 16% of GDP. By 1940 it had increased to the unheard of level of 46%. During World War II it was over 125%. Today, the US national debt is approximately 100%. If President Obama is reelected it will probably go higher. TWO ECONOMIC VIEWS This underscores the distinction between two economic views which dominate Europe and America. The new fiscal compact aims to limit debt in the Euros zone to 60% of GDP or less. Any debt above that level should be eliminated as quickly as possible. The more flexible Keynesian type approach considers the national debt to be a major policy tool which can be adjusted to influence the level of economic activity. Debt can be increased during a recession to stimulate the economy, as Roosevelt did with the new deal. It can and should be decreased during more prosperous times. Moreover, as we have had occasion to observe in Cyprus, increases in the national debt can easily be wasted on non- productive projects and employments, such as wasteful and excessive enlargement of the public sector in pursuit of votes. The Euro zone approach, as propounded by the German austerity school, considers that the national debt is not a tool for stimulating the economy. National debt is to be kept as low as possible. Which approach is the best? We, in Cyprus, are in the midst of a great economic experiment. Unlike the natural sciences, economics cannot test its theories in test tube conditions. Nevertheless, many of those that are in the Keynesian “debt can be managed” school may say (are saying) that we have already had sufficient experience with economic downturns to be able to avoid the mistakes of history. Cypriots have little voice in the matter, even though we may think we do. There is not much choice for us but to wait for the troika and hope for the best.

Accountability still not a high priority for banks and insurers, says EIU Five years on from the start of the financial crisis, being a socially responsible corporate citizen is still not a top priority for many business leaders in financial services, new research from the Economist Intelligence Unit shows. In a global survey conducted for ‘Society, shareholders and self-interest: Accountability of business leaders in financial services’, an EIU report sponsored by SAS, an overwhelming majority (84%) of C-level banking and insurance executives say meeting short-term performance targets is their main priority. A smaller proportion (62%) thinks being socially responsible is also important. The C-suite in finance considers itself most accountable to the

board (90%), followed by regulators (79%) and investors (74%). Only 54% of finance leaders see themselves as accountable to society. When asked who or what they should become more accountable to, the most popular choices for these executives are CEO, investors and the board. The least popular choices are society, employees and the government or state. Nonetheless, the high level of public scrutiny since the crisis has had a perceptible impact at the top of the sector. Nearly threequarters (73%) of the executives say that their companies are making conscious efforts to improve the transparency and accuracy of the information they share with external stakeholders.

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September 19 - 25, 2012



Attacking Fraud Emerges As Top Priority l

Use the Fraud Triangle theory Incentives/Pressures, Opportunity and Rationalisation

As the economies of many countries worldwide decline and austerity measures are under way, new threats emerge. When the economic survival of many companies and individuals is under threat, the line separating acceptable and unacceptable behaviour could, for some, become blurred. Under these circumstances the risk for fraud in many companies increases significantly. Business owners and management must work together with their accountants and other experts to implement appropriate controls and other measures to mitigate the risk of fraud. I. THE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT The European economic environment continues to experience market instability and many businesses are striving to survive. In this environment, dominated by uncertainty, many businesses are struggling to remain solvent focusing mainly on improving cash flows. In order to achieve this they squeeze working capital, minimise costs, cut expenses and lay off employees. The major issue that arises however, especially because of the laying off of employees and the cutting of expenses, is the loosening of internal controls due to the lesser segregation of duties imposed. As a result, companies are becoming more vulnerable to fraud. Probably the best way to approach this issue is to test whether the ‘Fraud Triangle’ theory applies to the present economic environment. II. THE ‘FRAUD TRIANGLE’ This theory was developed in the US in the late 1940s by Dr Donald R. Cressey, but it is still applicable today; as a matter of fact, it was used as guidance for thought for most of the recent international fraud cases that ended up in court. According to this theory, the three conditions commonly found when fraud occurs are Incentives/Pressures, Opportunity and Rationalisation. Applying the Fraud Triangle Theory in today’s economic environment one can conclude the following: Incentives or Pressures -The income of both companies and individuals is more likely to be squeezed further due to additional taxes and/or lower revenues; -As people lose their jobs, and those still in employment feel more threatened than ever before, the pressure to commit fraud increases significantly; -Managers, employees and workers will be pressured more for better results and productivity. Opportunity -Internal controls and other measures previously taken are more likely to be loosening up with redundancies, layoffs and cutting of expenses. This will probably lead to less segregation of duties imposed on the remaining employees; -Internal controls for small companies are already very loose or even non-existent in some cases. Rationalisation Employees and, in some cases, managers may feel that: -They didn’t really have a choice but to commit fraud in order to meet family expenses (tuition or other running expenses) and/or preserve their standard of living;

-Others, including top managers within their company, are paid unreasonably high; -They are not the ones responsible for the crisis and hence should not be the ones to pay for it, etc. The above “analysis” sends us a clear signal that there is an increased likelihood of fraud.


Small businesses (less than 100 employees) are significantly more likely than their larger counterparts to neglect instituting basic antifraud controls that could save them from costly losses, according to a worldwide survey (Report to the Nations on Occupational Fraud and Abuse) conducted by the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners (ACFE) in May 2012. Most companies fall into this category. III. ATTACKING FRAUD Eliminating fraud risk is impossible regardless of what measures and controls companies take. The good news though is that fraud risk can be mitigated by breaking the ‘Fraud Triangle’. This implies that a business must remove at least one of the elements in the triangle in order to reduce the likelihood of fraudulent activities. Businesses are advised to attack all three elements of the triangle using, among others, the following tools, most of which can be implemented at low cost: Incentives or Pressures - Minimising employee Incentives or pressures is probably the most difficult task to accomplish. Pressures such as financial hardship or family problems are difficult to detect in employees. Companies are advised to take steps, if possible, to assist employees who might be having difficult times, especially if dealing with good employees with a proven past record; - Open Door Policies should be implemented to help employees and others to speak freely with managers about their problems; - Setting up goals and targets that can be achieved given the current economic conditions. By setting these too high, employees are confronted with a tough choice between the risk of being thought incompetent at their job and taking unethical or even illegal shortcuts to meet the targets. Opportunities - Review existing controls periodically and implement new ones whenever changes are made within a business (e.g. layoffs, change of duties, additional duties to existing employees); - Increase the Perception of Detection by surprise internal audits and the use of Analytical Review procedures for expenses and income; -Job Rotation aids in the detection of fraud that requires continuous or manual intervention; - Enforcement of Mandatory Vacations aid in the prevention of some internal fraud that require manual intervention. Rationalisation - Promote an ethical tone at the top;

- Develop a Code of Conduct promoting a culture that encourages and rewards ethical conduct and compliance; - Educate and train employees about fraud and its effects on both the company and the perpetrator; - Whistle blowing is the activity of giving tip offs about possible fraud via a special telephone hotline, e-mail, fax, etc. It can be made anonymously. This method proved to be the best way to detect fraud and in some cases prevented fraud according to the ACFE 2012 Report to the Nations on Occupational Fraud and Abuse.

especially with critical people and independent experts before taking a significant decision. He should go beyond his close circle of biased and friendly advisors, colleagues or friends. Managers who want employees to follow antifraud procedures/controls and behave ethically must adopt such practices themselves. They have to remember that leading by example is the first step in fostering a culture of ethical behaviour in their companies. Likewise managers must be the first ones to follow the antifraud procedures and controls otherwise employees will probably not follow them either.

IV. ETHICS & MANAGEMENT Historically, traditional inward looking management and leadership skills that only consider the purpose of making profit, without paying much attention to ethical considerations, are no longer sufficient for sustainable organisational success. A good leader in today’s environment must consult widely

Rakis Christoforou is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants – Forensic & Valuation Services section (AICPA) and the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners (ACFE). He is also a member of the Institute of Certified Public Accountants of Cyprus (ICPAC).

September 19 - 25, 2012


Is Europe’s Financial Crisis Over? The European Central Bank’s recently announced policy of bond buying, what it calls “outright monetary transactions” (OMTs) marks a convergence of European central banks with their Anglo-Saxon counterparts. While the ECB’s actions represent the best chance yet to put an end to a crisis that has been playing out since 2010, the Bank has markedly raised the stakes for governments. The ECB’s policy framework is well suited to fighting systemic blazes, but poorly suited to local fires, which thus can spread uncontrollably. The OMT program, which allows the ECB to buy sovereign bonds of countries that have agreed to reform their economies, significantly levels the playing field between the Bank and its advanced-economy peers. Spain has the same fiscal and structural problems that it had prior to the OMT program’s launch, but now it has an external lender of last resort. That is a game-changer. Under the pre-OMT regime, a capital outflow from Spain, whether through the sale of government bonds or the liquidation of private claims, resulted in tighter monetary conditions. The sale of sovereign bonds under the fixed exchange-rate regime put direct upward pressure on their yields, while sales of private securities by foreigners had a similar effect, but through indirect channels. Monetary tightening was forestalled only to the extent that another source of foreign capital (either private or ECB) could replace the outflow. The point at which credit risk becomes exchange-rate/redenomination risk is ambiguous. But the metamorphosis tends to go hand in hand with localized monetary contractions that exacerbate the correlated risk of sovereign default and bank failures. In Spain, as in Greece before it, the monetary squeeze has become chronic as banks run short of ECB-eligible collateral. Under the OMT program, the ECB can replace foreign outflows from sovereign-bond markets through direct purchases, putting Spain on par with non-eurozone countries like the United Kingdom. And, to the extent that there is even an informal price target associated with the ECB’s commitment to purchase bonds, foreign outflows, at least from the sovereign-bond

market, are automatically replaced, in full, with ECB cash. Without the ECB’s willingness to buy a potentially unlimited volume of sovereign bonds to achieve its very imprecise objective of mitigating redenomination risk, the eurozone would have been doomed to recurring episodes of internal funding stress. The OMT program breaks the volatile liquidity cycle that stems from chronic shortages of bank collateral and a limited fiscal transfer mechanism. More broadly, the ECB’s marginal lending facility is an indirect means of monetizing sovereign debt. It is an even less direct

By GENE FRIEDA Global strategist for Moore Europe Capital Management

way to address the private, related-debt overhang. But it works. That said, much can still go wrong. The ECB has bought time, but it has also raised the stakes. The credibility of its pledge depends as much on what it will do (buy unlimited quantities of government bonds) as on what it will not do (buy them from countries that do not fulfill conditionality). Without a credible threat to cut off wayward sovereigns, the ECB’s pledge provides a free lunch to investors and governments alike. The problem is that following through on that threat would severely test the ECB’s commitment to do whatever it takes. After all, if markets truly believed that the ECB would refuse to backstop errant governments, investors would run away from participating countries at the first sign that conditionality was not being met. As with its predecessor, the Securities Markets Program, the OMT program is legally and democratically questionable: it violates the spirit, but not the letter, of the European Union treaty’s no-bailout clause; its promise of equal treatment with private

creditors still has no precedent; and it involves back-door fiscal transfers, leaving the ECB heavily exposed to political backlash – witness the visceral reaction of the German press to ECB President Mario Draghi’s announcement. But OMTs also fit well with a large body of historical evidence that, in times of crisis, policymakers must focus on extinguishing the fire, rather than negotiating over who owns the water and what its cost should be. The OMT program will cause credit conditions to ease, but without necessarily reversing the financial balkanization of the eurozone that has occurred over the last three years. Reversal of that process will likely not occur until the three key elements of banking union – common supervision, common deposit insurance, and a common resolution fund – are within tangible reach. Indeed, if Spanish savers become truly afraid of redenomination risk in the interim, the OMT will not matter: they will just take their cash and deposit it as quickly as possible in, say, a German bank. The eurozone is still prone to bad equilibria as long as growth on its periphery remains weak. Even with OMTs, there remain crucial differences between the eurozone and the Anglo-Saxon economies. Fixed exchange rates within the eurozone impose a constraint that simply does not exist in the UK or the United States, and quantitative easing by the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve is unconditional in nature. With OMTs, the ECB has converged toward the Fed in its ability to backstop each of its individual parts. Whether that hastens or hinders political progress toward fiscal and banking federalism is the next big question. In the interim, OMTs enable financial markets to start breathing again. The acute crisis is over, at least for now. But the existential challenge – political agreement on the key elements of banking and fiscal union – is only just beginning. Unless it is met, the eurozone’s financial disintegration will eventually resume. © Project Syndicate, 2012.

A tangible Olympic economic boost? l

Few experts or UK businesses expect one, says EIU survey

The 2012 Olympics proved a compelling spectacle and appear to have been an organisational and morale-building success for the host city, London. The organisers also hope that the games will prove to have been an economic success, providing tangible benefits in terms of additional output, new jobs, improved infrastructure and regeneration of deprived neighbourhoods. Most of their hopes are likely to be dashed, to judge by the views of experts and business executives brought together by the Economist Intelligence Unit in a new report, Legacy 2012: Understanding the impact of the Olympic Games, sponsored by Cisco. In a survey of 815 business leaders in the UK, China and Brazil undertaken for the report, less than half of UK executives expected the benefits of hosting the games to outweigh the costs. By contrast, overwhelming majorities of their peers in China (in relation to Beijing 2008 games) and Brazil (looking ahead to Rio 2016) said the opposite. No more than 19% of UK respondents believe that the Olympics generate a long-term boost to economic growth, again in stark contrast to their Chinese and Brazilian counterparts. Several essayists are likewise sceptical about the existence of clear economic and business benefits to Olympic host cities and countries. Max Nathan, research fellow with the Spatial Economics Research Centre, London School of Economics, writes that hoped-for impacts from job creation, transport improvement and inducements to healthier living usually turn out to be small. He also warns that it will take years for any lasting benefits to become clear. “Assessing these impacts is tough. The effects of mega-projects are inherently hard to predict, and prone to what psychologists call ‘optimism bias’…. Worse, some games effects may show up straight away, while others take years to emerge, Nathan said, holding out more hope for London’s regeneration efforts, citing Barcelona’s ability to use its 1992 games as a “gigantic development accelerator”.

Chris Gratton and Larissa Davies, with the Sport Industry Research Centre at Sheffield Hallam University, likewise believe that regeneration expectations are realistic but warn that “planners should not expect this to take place automatically”: “Evidence … suggests that the success of event-led regeneration depends on several critical factors, including the strategic master planning of interventions.... [However], even when plans are well thought-out they can be vulnerable to economic and political issues beyond the control of event and legacy organisations,” Gratton and Davies said. Economics isn’t everything, however. Xu Guoqui, professor of history at Hong Kong University, argues persuasively that for Beijing, the most sought-after benefit of the 2008 games was the successful projection of “soft power”: “Cost was a minor concern for the authorities…. The government intended to use the games as a demonstration of soft

power, a coming-out party that underlined China’s growing economic strength, openness and international prestige. In this respect, the games were clearly a success…,” Prof. Guoqui added. Other essayists agree that a boost to prestige and civic, even national, pride can prove just as valuable a benefit for an Olympic host as the more tangible ones of jobs and output. In an interview for the report with the Economist Intelligence Unit, Eduardo Paes, mayor of Rio de Janeiro, states his city’s intention to generate a “prestige premium” from the 2016 games: “Non-tangible legacy is equally as important for us. It’s a big opportunity to demonstrate that we’re not only a city with good samba, but that we’re a good place to do business, a cultural capital, a place where you can get things done.” Other key findings from the survey conducted for the report include the following: - Only 25% of UK executives thought their own business would benefit substantially from the London games. This may explain why no more than 23% had developed strategies to take advantage, compared with 67% of China respondents who say they did in 2008, and 48% of those in Brazil who say they are planning to do so for 2016. - Fully 93% of Chinese respondents think that the authorities were effective in working with firms to maximise the gains from hosting the Olympics. Just under 70% of Brazilian respondents think this will be the case, but only 57% of UK respondents feel the same in regard to 2012. - Chinese and Brazilian respondents think the main benefits for their host cities lie in transport improvements, while UK respondents look to urban regeneration as the main plus for London. Legacy 2012: Understanding the impact of the Olympic games can be viewed free of charge at:

September 19 - 25, 2012


China’s Evolving Web In a recent article, the economist Axel Leijonhufvud defines the market system as a web of contracts. Because contracts are linked with each other, one default can trigger an avalanche of broken promises, “[making] it possible to destroy virtually the entire web of formal and informal contracts which the market system requires for its functioning.” The state’s role is to protect, enforce, and regulate these contracts and related property rights, as well as to intervene to prevent systemic failure. This web of contracts – often taken for granted in mainstream economics, to the extent that it becomes almost invisible – embodies the formal and informal rules embedded in the market system that shape and constrain individual and social behavior. They form the fabric of all human institutions. Advanced economic systems have very complex webs of contracts, such as financial derivatives. For Europe, Leijonhufvud argues, this implies a three-pronged approach that focuses on “levels of leverage,” “maturity mismatches,” and “the topology of the web,” – that is, “its connectivity and the presence of critical nodes that are ‘too big to fail.’” This is because “[t]he web of contracts has developed serious inconsistencies.” To insist that all contracts be fulfilled would “cause a collapse of very large portions of the web,” with “serious economic and incalculable social and political consequences.” By contrast, emerging markets like China have less sophisticated systems and evolve more complex contractual/institutional links over time, particularly through globalized transactions. Under China’s planned economy, most contracts were between individuals and the state, whereas more sophisticated market contracts have emerged or re-emerged only over the last 30 years. Indeed, the widespread use of market contracts with publicly-owned companies was a recent and important adaptation in the move toward a “socialist market economy.” The web of contracts, however, can also be understood as complex adaptive market systems, which encompass the state and family relations as well. To understand China’s socialist market economy, it is essential to examine systematically these different forms of contracts and their institutional structures. Family and kinship contracts, which govern marriage, adoption, cohabitation, inheritance, etc., form the basic unit of human society. These contracts are the most ancient and remain the foundation of social relationships in China today. Corporate contracts place the profit-oriented legal person at the center of the transaction and bind all of its stakeholders. Chinese corporate contracts have grown exponentially over the last 30 years, but they have special characteristics that reflect the primary role of Chinese state-owned enterprises. Market contracts between producers and consumers – and/or among producers in supply chains – link individuals, families, firms, governments, and public organizations through local or global markets. Over the last few decades, China has begun to practice modern contract law and joined the World Trade Organization, committing itself to international rules governing trade and investment. Non-governmental and non-profit civil contracts bind people together for communal, religious, social, and political activities. These contracts are still relatively new and evolving in China. Social contracts created by constitutional and administrative laws define the powers and responsibilities of the state and its constituent bodies vis-à-vis individuals and the private sector. They include the authority to impose taxes and restraints on individuals and private entities through criminal, administrative, and civil law, as well as the state’s obligation to provide public goods and services. China has strengthened its unitary state with important institutional innovations that have delivered growth and middle-income prosperity, but it still retains the basic five-level administrative structure – central government on top, with provincial, city, town, and village bodies below – that first emerged two millennia ago. Deciphering the structure of the web of contracts holds the key to understanding how an economy behaves, including its dynamic non-linear adaptation to internal and external forces. Following the physicist Fritjof Capra, one should regard living organisms, social systems, and ecosystems as an interconnected and interdependent, complex adaptive system. This means that we should view the economy and society not as rigid hierarchies or mechanical markets, but as networks or webs of life, in which contracts, formal and informal, fulfilled or violated, are the essence of human activity. Examining webs of contracts should be similar to a biologist’s examination of cell structure and DNA. China has created four functioning global-scale modern supply chains in manufacturing, infrastructure, finance, and government services, thanks to its evolving, expanding, and complex web of contracts. But how was China able to build a modern industrial base within a relatively short period of time

By ANDREW SHENG and GENG XIAO from its traditional, patrimonial family contracts and archaic constitutional structures? Through experimentation, adaptation, and evolution – a process that has been described as “crossing the river by feeling the stones” – China has been able to evolve a higher-order, or fifth, supply chain in political decision-making. This “top-level governance architecture,” as it is known in China, has been essential for coordinating and orchestrating the different supply chains and the overall web of contracts to achieve the delicate balance among individual, family,

corporate, social, and national objectives. This top-level governance architecture is analogous to a computer’s operating system, which orchestrates the other software and hardware components to form a holistic unity. Such a structure exists in many economies, but, in the Chinese context, where the state plays a central role in the economy, it is critical to the system’s effectiveness. How it is shaped will depend on how China’s history, culture, institutional context, and evolving web of contracts affect the country’s social fabric. Andrew Sheng, President of the Fung Global Institute, is a former chairman of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and is currently an adjunct professor at Tsinghua University, Beijing. Xiao Geng is Director of Research at the Fung Global Institute. © Project Syndicate, 2012.

September 19 - 25, 2012

10 | WORLD

Brussels at pains to sustain momentum l

Officials look to press on with banking, fiscal reforms; Leaders to examine next crisis-fighting steps at October summit

It has been 13 days since the European Central Bank announced it was prepared to buy the debt of struggling euro zone countries in unlimited amounts to help bring down their borrowing costs. In that time, the euro has gained 4% against the dollar, the broadest European stock index is up nearly the same amount and yields on Spanish and Italian 10-year bonds have fallen by more than a percentage point. A degree of optimism has taken root thanks to the ECB’s promise of intervention as well as a decision by Germany’s top court to approve Berlin’s participation in the euro zone’s permanent bailout fund, and a sense of progress towards a eurozone ‘banking union’. But as anyone who has followed the debt crisis for the past 2-1/2 years knows, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. And in this case, no matter how desirable the dessert, it contains a mixture of ingredients that are already proving unpalatable for those tucking in. Euro zone leaders have squandered the opportunities offered by previous lulls in the crisis and there is no guarantee that they won’t find a way of doing the same again. “There’s less panic, but that doesn’t mean there’s any complacency,” said one EU diplomat, while acknowledging that the risk of leaders sitting back or relaxing was not negligible. The first problem is Spain. While the country has admitted that its banks need help and up to 100 bln euros has been set aside to support the sector, Madrid remains reluctant to sign up to any broader or stricter bailout programme. Until it makes a request for assistance, and agrees to the conditions likely to be imposed by the European Commission, the ECB and the International Monetary Fund, the central bank can’t step in to buy its bonds and keep borrowing costs down. That uncertainty has already begun to rattle investors. Whereas 10-year bond yields fell from above 6.6% before the ECB’s move to 5.6% late last week, they are now rising again, nearing 6% on Monday. Spain’s predicament is made all the harder by Germany, the EU’s biggest economy, the largest contributor to the euro zone’s rescue fund and the most influential voice in the crisis. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is not convinced Spain needs to ask for a full programme, especially since the worst of the market pressure appears to have eased — barely two months ago Spain’s yields were a punishing 7.5%. With Finland, Austria and other northern European states largely leaning the same way as Berlin, Spain has less incentive to take the plunge. The expectation remains that it will eventually do so, perhaps around the time of the next EU summit in midOctober, but until it does, the market will be agitated and yields could well drift higher still. “The market is pondering whether or when Spain might require a bailout,” said Rabobank rate strategist Richard McGuire.

“The realisation is dawning it might not be rushing.” Greece remains far deeper in the mire than Spain and is way off meeting debt reduction targets demanded as part of its bailout. The euro zone is going to have to find a way to keep that show on the road for at least some while longer or risk plunging the currency bloc into even deeper crisis. “Even if in other ways the pieces are falling into place in tackling the crisis ... there is always Greece,” a senior EU official said. “It remains a distinct problem and it can still have a contagion impact.”

There is also a risk that the drive to cut debts in countries already in recession will eventually provoke a dramatic public backlash, in a way that has not materialised yet even if there are signs of growing civil discontent. Over 150,000 Portuguese marched over the weekend against planned tax hikes that have shattered the consensus behind austerity imposed by an EU/IMF bailout, and tens of thousands more marched in Spain. REFORM MOMENTUM In policy terms, it is not just the immediate question of if or when Spain will seek a bailout, and whether Italy will follow suit, that is making the pudding hard to digest. Long-term plans to overhaul the euro zone also threaten to ruin the flavour. This week, EU officials begin detailed discussions on the fourstep process they have committed to as part of a redesign of eco-

nomic and monetary union, the underpinning of the euro. As well as plans for a ‘banking union’, the goal is to better coordinate fiscal and budgetary policy across the euro zone (a ‘fiscal union’), work on establishing an ‘economic union’ that more close aligns labour and social policy and finally to arrive at a fully fledged ‘political union’. The European Commission set out its proposals on banking union last week, with the goal of giving the ECB responsibility for overseeing all 6,000 banks in the euro zone beginning in January 2013, with the process completed a year later. But there are already concerns about that timeline being too ambitious and disagreements between member states and the Commission about what follows afterwards. It wants to establish a pan-euro zone fund for resolving bad banks, with all countries paying in, and put in place a scheme to guarantee euro zone bank deposits. Under its proposals, once the ECB has supervisory authority, the way will immediately be clear for the euro zone’s permanent bailout fund to directly recapitalise banks. But that is apparently not how Germany sees the “sequencing”. Schaeuble and Joerg Asmussen, Germany’s executive board member at the ECB, said at a meeting of EU finance ministers in Cyprus at the weekend that direct recapitalisation was unlikely to be possible from early 2013, and raised questions about whether ECB oversight was sufficient to allow it. The banking proposals, and particularly the ECB oversight aspect, were expected to be the first and simplest step towards a deepening and strengthening of economic and monetary union, a process even optimists expect to take a decade or more. Instead it is likely that every element of banking union and the fiscal, economic and political union ambitions that follow, will be fought over at length and in detail. Tied up within banking union are some of the most contentious issues underpinning the crisis. For example, a proper deposit-guarantee scheme across euro zone banks would involve a mutualisation of risk, with each euro zone country effectively acting as a deposit backstop for the others. That is the banking equivalent of a mutualisation of debt, the very thing that Germany remains adamantly opposed to, at least until the time is right. From Berlin’s point of view, pooling of risk, whether via bank deposits or joint debt issuance, is the culmination of economic integration, not something to be tackled at the start. “That’s the end of the process, and we all know that. It’s as sensitive as mutualised debt, so it comes at the very end,” the EU official said. “It will be a long time before we get to the deposit guarantee debate.” In that regard, any sense that the days since the ECB announced its conditional bond-buying programme had somehow resolved the debt crisis would be misguided. There may be less alarm in financial markets, but a complex and deeply contentious road lies ahead.

Merkel urges go-slow on EU bank supervision German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned against rushing to create a new pan-European bank supervisor under the roof of the ECB, saying it was more important to put a credible watchdog in place than to meet Europe’s selfimposed January deadline. Speaking at her traditional summer news conference in Berlin, delayed this year to allow the Constitutional Court to rule first on Europe’s new rescue fund, Merkel also voiced support for ECB President Mario Draghi’s decision to buy the bonds of stricken euro states. Draghi’s move, the Karlsruhe court ruling in favour of the bailout fund and a strong showing by pro-euro parties in a Dutch election last week have combined to cheer markets, pushing the euro to a four-month peak against the dollar. Merkel appeared calm and confident during the hour-anda-half briefing, at which German and international journalists lobbed questions at her about the euro crisis, her re-election hopes, Muslim protests, Iran, Syria and energy policy. The 58-year-old German leader offered a robust defence of her Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who at a meeting

with his European counterparts in Cyprus over the weekend played down expectations that a new bank supervisory body would be up and running by the start of 2013. “It is not a matter of coming up with something as soon as possible which will also end up not working, but of winning back credibility,” Merkel told reporters. She also dismissed the notion that struggling banks might be able to tap the euro zone’s new rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), for direct aid before the new supervisor was up and running. Although Germany was a driving force behind the idea at an EU summit last June, it has warned since then about overburdening the ECB with new tasks too soon. For example, Berlin is resisting plans by the European Commission to give the ECB responsibility for monitoring all 6,000 banks in the bloc, in part because it wants to retain primary oversight for German regional and cooperative banks.


Merkel also touched on criticisms of Draghi’s bond-

buying programme by Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, saying her former economic adviser had a right to express his opinions on crisis strategy. Finance Minister Schaeuble, in what was seen as a direct dig at Weidmann, told a German newspaper at the weekend that the public debate over the bond-buying plan risked damaging confidence in the ECB. Merkel has had to walk a fine line, simultaneously defending Weidmann, whose criticisms are shared by many Germans, and supporting Draghi’s policies, which have calmed markets and boosted confidence that the crisis can be resolved. She told the news conference on Monday that she had no reason to believe the ECB was violating its mandate by buying bonds, a step Weidmann has said breaks a taboo on state financing. “If the ECB determines that monetary transmission has become difficult, then it must take measures to ensure price stability - it is not up to us to set it limits,” Merkel said. “The German government has made clear it believes that monetary stability issues justify the ECB’s latest decisions.”

September 19 - 25, 2012

WORLD | 11

Russian gas market power is eroding The European Commission’s antitrust case against Gazprom will force the Russian company to divest shares in gas infrastructure and shift towards shorter term supply contracts, precedent from European energy companies suggests. The case adds to structural shifts in the European gas market to erode the pricing power of Gazprom, which is more than 50% owned by the Russian state. That pressure can only strengthen the hand of China, as Russia tries to diversify its markets away from Europe and ship gas to the world’s fastest growing energy consumer, in negotiations that have stalled on price. The EU investigation centres on excessive market power including long-term contracts that have locked gas customers for up to 30 years into more expensive oil-indexed prices in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. East European countries have benefited least from imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) into west European ports and the associated rise in cheaper spot pricing in north and west European market hubs. UK hub prices were 68% of a theoretical price calculated using a traditional oil-indexed formula, the EU’s quarterly gas market review reported earBy GERARD WYNN lier this year. Reuters market analyst Rising energy dependence is driving the EU’s efforts to diversify supplies and liberalise prices, through its competitive markets drive and the shift towards renewable energy. The EU imported 62.4% of its natural gas consumption in 2011, up from 60.3% in 2007, according to the EU’s “Statistical Pocketbook 2012”. EU domestic production of natural gas continued its long term decline in 2011, at below 1,788 terrawatt hours (TWh), about 30% below production levels in 2003, the quarterly review reported. TRENDS The EU’s push for a competitive energy market has helped drive alternative supplies, by boosting cross-border interconnector pipelines, LNG port facilities and gas storage. Chart 1 shows Russia’s declining share of EU gas imports, down to 34.2% as of 2009, the latest year Eurostat data are available, from 47.7% in 2001.

ing faster than at any time since 1985, alongside renewable energy. Chart 2 shows that EU gas consumption in 2011 was at its lowest level in 11 years. Meanwhile, Australia and East Africa are emerging as new suppliers of LNG, and potentially in the future so will the United States. That is a dangerous mix for Gazprom, Russia’s biggest company, given the EU accounts for most of its gas exports.

More diversified supplies and interconnections have also pressured prices by boosting spot exchange hubs in north-western Europe, offering an alternative to more expensive, oil-indexed contracts where rapid growth of the Netherlands’ TTF (Title Transfer Facility) exchange alongside Britain’s more established NBP (National Balancing Point) is illustrative. To widen those benefits to eastern Europe, the European Commission has prioritised a northsouth gas pipeline to link the Baltic and Black Sea, and stronger interconnections between Finland, Sweden and Poland, as related last year in a discussion paper, “The internal energy market - time to switch into higher gear”. Compounding Gazprom’s problems, EU gas consumption has fallen in two of the past three years on the back of the financial crisis and rising prices. In the meantime, coal consumption is ris-

PRECEDENT The Commission’s antitrust steps will provide an extra push to erode Gazprom’s power in eastern Europe, given its successes against Europe’s biggest energy companies in similar probes. Regarding supply dominance, in 2007 the Commission forced Belgian wholesale gas supplier Distrigas to reduce the volumes it tied up in long-term contracts, after concerns that the company could set prices, with the threat of a fine equivalent to up to 10% of annual sales. That is relevant to Poland’s complaints about Gazprom’s excessively expensive, long-term contracts. The Commission says it is presently investigating whether “Gazprom may have imposed unfair prices on its customers by linking the price of gas to oil prices”, in long-term contracts. In a distribution case, the Commission in 2009 forced RWE to divest its entire western German high-pressure gas transmission network after concerns the German utility was restricting competitive access. That could equally apply to Gazprom’s dual ownership of distribution and supply businesses in Lithuania. And regarding cross-border capacity, in 2009 and 2010 the Commission forced GDF Suez to scale back its long-term reservation of French gas import capacity, Germany’s E.ON to stop hoarding import capacity into the German gas grid, and ENI to divest shares in international transport pipelines to Italy. In its Gazprom probe, the Commission is investigating whether the company “may have divided gas markets by hindering the free flow of gas across Member States”. While the notion of energy security normally attaches to customers, Gazprom will have to find alternative markets to preserve its own security in the face of EU pricing pressure while its efforts to contract gas sales to China have so far failed.

EU energy chief hopes for smooth solution to Gazprom spat l

Oettinger believes controversy with Russia can be cleared up over coming months

The European Commission is holding intensive talks with Russia and expects to reach a compromise on a legal dispute between the bloc and its biggest gas provider, while avoiding disruption to energy supplies, the bloc’s energy commissioner said on Monday. The Commission is investigating suspected anti-competitive practices by Russia’s Gazprom, which has said it will fight the case but not cut supplies in retaliation. EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said there was no supply risk. “We don’t see any direct risk for our security of our supply, either for oil, coal or gas. We assume all sides will respect contractual commitments,” he told reporters. “We have had intensive bilateral discussions about Russian

developments,” he said on the sidelines of an informal meeting of EU energy ministers in Nicosia. “A number of points are obviously controversial. But I believe that both sides can be professional on this, so much so that I believe these controversial issues can be cleared up, I believe it is possible we find compromises. Moreover the European energy market, our industry, the consumers need not suffer from this,” he added. Oettinger said he was preparing for further talks with the new Russian energy minister and the new deputy prime minister in October or November at the latest. The annual EU-Russia dialogue will be held in December.


∆∂∆∞ƒ∆∏, 19 ™∂¶∆∂ªµƒπ√À, 2012

∫·Ó¤Ó· ·Ó·ÎÔÈÓˆı¤Ó ÁÈ· ÙÔ ¶ÔÏ˘ÂÙ¤˜ ¢ËÌÔÛÈÔÓÔÌÈÎfi ¶Ï·›ÛÈÔ ∆εν θα ληφθούν οποιεσδήποτε αποφάσεισ στη διάρκεια του γεύµατοσ εργασίασ που θα έχει σήµερα Τετάρτη στισ Βρυξέλλεσ ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ ∆ηµήτρησ ΧριστÞφιασ µε τουσ Προέδρουσ τησ ΚοµισιÞν, του Ευρωπαϊκού Συµβουλίου και του Ευρωκοινοβουλίου µε θέµα το Πολυετέσ ∆ηµοσιονοµικÞ Πλαίσιο 2014 - 2020. Οι τέσσερισ ΠρÞεδροι θα συναντηθούν στισ Βρυξέλλεσ προκειµένου να συντονίσουν τισ προσπάθειέσ τουσ για επίτευξη συµφωνίασ πάνω στον επÞµενο επταετή προϋπολογισµÞ τησ Ενωσησ µέχρι το τέλοσ

∆εκεµβρίου. Η ΕκπρÞσωποσ του Προέδρου τησ ΚοµισιÞν, Πία Χάνσεν, δήλωσε Þτι πρÞκειται για γεύµα εργασίασ και άρα δεν θα ληφθούν οποιεσδήποτε αποφάσεισ. Η ΚοµισιÞν υπέβαλε την πρÞτασή τησ για το Π∆Π τον Ιούνιο του 2011. Μέχρι το τέλοσ του έτουσ πρέπει να επιτευχθεί συµφωνία µεταξύ των κρατών µελών πάνω στο Π∆Π σε συνεννÞηση µε το ΕυρωπαϊκÞ Κοινοβούλιο. Ο ρÞλοσ τησ Κυπριακήσ Προεδρίασ του Συµβουλίου είναι να βρει τη χρυσή τοµή ανάµεσα στα κράτη µέλη τησ ΕΕ και να διαπραγµατευτεί µε το Ευρωκοινοβούλιο. ΣτÞχοσ,

σύµφωνα µε τον ΠρÞεδρο του Ευρωπαϊκού Συµβουλίου Χέρµαν βαν Ροµπέι, είναι Þπωσ το Π∆Π για την περίοδο 2014-2020 υιοθετηθεί πριν το τέλοσ του 2012, δηλαδή στη διάρκεια τησ Κυπριακήσ Προεδρίασ. Για την Κυπριακή Προεδρία η επίτευξη συµφωνίασ πάνω στο Π∆Π µέχρι το τέλοσ του έτουσ αποτελεί την σηµαντικÞτερή τησ προτεραιÞτητα, καθώσ θεωρεί Þτι πρÞκειται για µια µοναδική ευκαιρία να αποδείξει η χώρα Þτι µπορεί να διαπραγµατευτεί µε επιτυχία άκρωσ σηµαντικά ευρωπαϊκά θέµατα. ΕνδεικτικÞ τησ κρισιµÞτητασ του θέµατοσ

είναι το γεγονÞσ Þτι ο ΠρÞεδροσ του ΕΣ συγκάλεσε έκτακτο ΕυρωπαϊκÞ Συµβούλιο 22 και 23 Νοεµβρίου µε µοναδικÞ θέµα στην ατζέντα το Π∆Π µε στÞχο την επίτευξη πολιτικήσ συµφωνίασ στο διήµερο αυτÞ.

™Ù· ‰ÈηÛÙ‹ÚÈ· ¢‹ÌÔÈ Î·È ∫˘‚¤ÚÓËÛË √ ¢‹ÌÔ˜ ∞Á›Ô˘ ¢ÔÌÂÙ›Ô˘ Ê·›ÓÂÙ·È Ó· ·ÓÙÈÌÂÙˆ›˙ÂÈ ÙÔ ÌÂÁ·Ï‡ÙÂÚÔ Úfi‚ÏËÌ· Î·È Â›Ó·È ¿Ú· Ôχ ‰‡ÛÎÔÏÔ Ó· ηٷ‚ÏËıÔ‡Ó ÔÈ ÌÈÛıÔ› Νοµικά µέτρα κατά τησ κυβέρνησησ για την απÞφαση τησ να αποκÞψει χορηγία προσ τουσ ∆ήµουσ αποφάσισε να λάβει η Ένωση ∆ήµων Κύπρου. Σύµφωνα µε τον ΠρÞεδρο τησ Αλέξη ΓαλανÞ το ποσÞ που διεκδικούν υπολογίζεται κοντά στα 6,5 εκ. ευρώ. Ο κ. ΓαλανÞσ τÞνισε την ανάγκη να τουσ καταβληθεί απÞ την κυβέρνηση η χορηγία που λαµβάνουν ωσ αντιστάθµισµα τησ κατάργησησ του επαγγελµατικού φÞρου. Ùπωσ δήλωσε ο κ. ΓαλανÞσ Þλοι οι ∆ήµοι αντιµετωπίζουν οικονοµικά προβλήµατα, αλλά τουλάχιστον σε οκτώ - οι περισσÞτεροι απÞ τουσ οποίουσ είναι τησ µείζονοσ Λευκωσίασ η κατάσταση είναι πολύ σοβαρή µε κίνδυνο να µείνουν απλήρωτοι οι υπάλληλοι. Ο ∆ήµοσ

Αγίου ∆οµετίου φαίνεται να αντιµετωπίζει το µεγαλύτερο πρÞβληµα και Þπωσ δήλωσε ο ∆ήµαρχοσ, Κώστασ Πέτρου είναι πάρα πολύ δύσκολο να καταβληθούν οι µισθοί. «Αν υπο-

λογίσουµε Þτι απÞ το 2002 η Κυβέρνηση, είχε αναλάβει την υποχρέωση να αυξάνεται κάθε χρÞνο αυτή η χορηγία κατά 6% µιλούµε για ένα µεγαλύτερο κονδύλι. Αυτή είναι και η γνωµάτευση του νοµικού µασ συµβούλου», είπε Ο κύριοσ ΓαλανÞσ αναφέρθηκε επίσησ και σε κινήσεισ που προωθούν οι ∆ήµοι για βελτίωση των οικονοµικών τουσ. Τα µέτρα αυτά περιλαµβάνουν την πρÞωρη εθελοντική αφυπηρέτηση, οι νέοι δήµοι να χρησιµοποιούν τισ υπηρεσίεσ των παλαιών δήµων, και ενοποίηση των φορολογιών Þλων των δήµων. Ο κύριοσ ΓαλανÞσ επισήµανε Þτι υπέβαλαν αίτηµα για επιµήκυνση των δανείων των δήµων χωρίσ να λάβουν απάντηση.

ΑναφερÞµενοσ στην ανάγκη επιβίωσησ των ∆ήµων, προειδοποίησε Þτι αν δεν δοθούν χρήµατα σύντοµα θα αρχίσουν οι ∆ήµοι να κλείνει ο ένασ µετά απÞ τον άλλο και θα υπάρξει στάση πληρωµών και απολύσεισ. Τέλοσ Þπωσ πληροφορείται η εφηµερίδα µασ κάποιοι ∆ήµαρχοι έθεσαν θέµα να µην καταβάλλουν χρήµατα στο κράτοσ Þσον αφορά τον οδικÞ φωτισµÞ κάτι το οποίο είχε τη σθεναρή αντίδραση συναδέλφων τουσ που πρÞσκεινται στο ΑΚΕΛ. Η υπουργÞσ Εσωτερικών, Ελένη Μαύρου τÞνισε Þτι καταβάλλεται κάθε προσπάθεια για να στηριχθούν οι ∆ήµοι και διαβεβαίωσε Þτι θα πάρουν το ποσÞ που περιλαµβάνεται στον προϋπολογισµÞ.

∆Ô ·Ú·Û΋ÓÈÔ ÙÔ˘ Eurogroup Μιλώντασ µε αυστηρÞ ύφοσ ο ΠρÞεδροσ του Eurogroup Ζιαν Κλοντ Γιούνγκερ ζήτησε απÞ την κυπριακή πλευρά να ξεκαθαρίσει τισ προθέσεισ τησ για το µηχανισµÞ στήριξησ αφήνοντασ αιχµέσ για καθυστέρηση στη λήψη αποφάσεων απÞ πλευράσ κυβέρνησησ. Προσβλέπουµε στη συνέχιση του διαλÞγου µε τισ κυπριακέσ αρχέσ προκειµένου να βοηθήσουµε στη στήριξη τησ οικονοµίασ, δήλωσε η ∆ιευθύντρια του ∆ιεθνούσ Νοµισµατικού Ταµείου Κριστίν Λαγκάρντ. «Πρώτα απÞ Þλα θα ήθελα να πω Þτι η Κύπροσ είναι ένασ υπέροχοσ οικοδεσπÞτησ και Þτι προσβλέπουµε στη συνέχιση του διαλÞγου µε τισ αρχέσ, προκειµένου να βοηθήσουµε στη στήριξη τησ οικονοµίασ», είπε.. Ùπωσ πληροφορούµαστε κατά τη διάρκεια συνεδρίασησ του Eurogroup ο ΠρÞεδροσ του Ζιαν Κλοντ Γιούγκερ καθώσ και η επικεφαλήσ του ∆ιεθνούσ Νοµισµατικού Ταµείου Κριστίν Λαγκάρντ εξέφρασαν τη δυσφορία τουσ για τη στάση τησ κυβέρνησησ, η οποία δεν ξεκαθαρίζει, τι προτιθεται να κάνει σχετικά µε το πρÞγραµµα οικονοµικήσ αρωγήσ. Παράλληλα επέκριναν έντονα την κυβέρνηση για τη διαρροή του εγγράφου µε τισ προτάσεισ τησ ΤρÞικα. Η Κύπροσ χρειάζεται οπωσδήποτε οικονοµική βοήθεια απÞ τουσ εταίρουσ τησ, διαφορετικά δεν θα είναι σε θέση να εκπληρώσει τισ υποχρεώσεισ τησ. ∆εσµεύοµαι Þτι το

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°È· ÙË Û˘Ìʈӛ· ¿Óˆ ÛÙÔ ·Î¤ÙÔ Ì¤ÙÚˆÓ.

µετώπιση τησ κρίσησ χρέουσ τησ Ευρωζώνησ, δήλωσε ο Ευρωπαίοσ Επίτροποσ οικονοµικών και νοµισµατικών υποθέσεων Ùλι Ρεν. Ο επικεφαλήσ του προσωρινού ταµείου χρηµατοπιστωτικήσ σταθερÞτητασ, Κλάουσ Ρέγκλινγκ, είπε Þτι έχουν ετοιµάσει τα πάντα έτσι ώστε ο ΕυρωπαϊκÞσ ΜηχανισµÞσ Στήριξησ να είναι σε θέση να εκτελεί την αποστολή του ωσ ο µÞνιµοσ µηχανισµÞσ σταθερÞτητασ στην ευρωζώνησ. Ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ Μάριο Ντράγκι σχολιάζοντασ τη δυναµική που ανα-

πτύχθηκε τισ τελευταίεσ µέρεσ µετά την απÞφαση σε σχέση µε την αγορά οµολÞγων είπε Þτι θα πρέπει να ρωτηθούν οι αγορέσ για το θέµα και Þχι ο ίδιοσ. Ο ΓερµανÞσ ΥπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών ΒÞλφανγκ ΣÞιµπλε κλήθηκε να σχολιάσει εάν θα γίνει απευθείασ ανακεφαλαιοποίση των τραπεζών απÞ την 1η του Ιανουαρίου του 2013 απαντώντασ αρνητικά. Τέλοσ στήριξη στο αίτηµα τησ Ελλάδασ για επιµήκυνση τησ δανειακήσ τησ σύµβασησ έστειλαν οι υπÞλοιποι Υπουργοί Οικονοµικών τησ Ευρωζώνησ.

επÞµενο δεκαπενθήµερο θα καλέσω το κλιµάκιο τησ ΤρÞικα στην Κύπρο ώστε να συµφωνήσουµε στο πρώτο µέροσ του µνηµονίου, δήλωσε ο ΥπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών Βάσοσ Σιαρλή. Την ίδια ώρα στα τέλη Οκτωβρίου τίθεται σε λειτουργία ο ΕυρωπαϊκÞσ ΜηχανισµÞσ ΣταθερÞτητασ, ένα απÞ τα βασικά εργαλεία µε δύναµη πυρÞσ 500 δισ ευρώ για την αντι-



2/14 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ

QE «for ever» ·fi Bernanke Î·È ¿ÚÙÈ ÛÙȘ ·ÁÔÚ¤˜ ¶ÈÛÙ‹ ÛÙËÓ ÔÏÈÙÈ΋ ÙÔ˘ ˘ÔÙÈÌË̤ÓÔ˘ ‰ÔÏ·Ú›Ô˘ Ë Fed Ù˘ÒÓÂÈ ÁÈ· ·ÎfiÌ· ÌÈ· ÊÔÚ¿ ¯Ú‹Ì· ‚˘ı›˙ÔÓÙ·˜ ÙÔ ‰ÔÏ¿ÚÈÔ Û ¯·ÌËÏfi 5 ÌËÓÒÓ Î·È ÊÔ˘ÛÎÒÓÔÓÙ·˜ ÁÈ· ·ÎfiÌ· ÌÈ· ÊÔÚ¿ Dow Jones Î·È ÂÌÔÚ‡̷ٷ ¡π∫√™ ªπÃ∞∏§π¢∏™ Foreign Exchange Analyst Email:

Σε συνεχÞµενο ανοδικÞ ράλι επιδÞθηκε για ακÞµα µια εβδοµάδα η ισοτιµία Ευρώ - ∆ολαρίου, την πέµπτη διαδοχική σηµειώνοντασ την µεγαλύτερη εβδοµαδιαία άνοδο του έτουσ, σκαρφαλώνοντασ σε νέο υψηλÞ πέντε µηνών. Συγκεκριµένα η ισοτιµία απÞ τα 1.2800 τησ περασµένησ εβδοµάδοσ ακολουθώντασ ένα έντονο ανοδικÞ ξέσπασµα σκαρφάλωσε µέχρι και τα 1.3150 Þπου και κινείται τισ τελευταίεσ ηµέρεσ. Καταλυτικά βέβαια για αυτÞ το ξέφρενο ανοδικÞ ξέσπασµα ενέργησε και πάλι η Fed η οποία στην τακτική τησ συνεδρία ανακοίνωσε νέο γύρο αγοράσ οµολÞγων διευρύνοντασ ταυτÞχρονα το «οπλοστάσιο» µη συµβατικών µέτρων που χρησιµοποιεί απÞ το ξέσπασµα τησ χρηµατοπιστωτικήσ κρίσησ µε στÞχο, Þπωσ ισχυρίστηκε να στηρίξει την εύθραυστη οικονοµική ανάκαµψη στισ ΗΠΑ. Μετά τα προσεκτικά σήµατα που έστελνε τουσ τελευταίουσ µήνεσ, η επιτροπή νοµισµατικήσ πολιτικήσ τησ Fed (FOMC) ανακοίνωσε Þτι θα προχωρά κάθε µήνα σε αγορέσ τίτλων, διασφαλισµένων µε ενυπÞθηκα πάγια, αξίασ 40 δισ. δολαρίων, ενώ άφησε ανοιχτÞ το ενδεχÞµενο να επεκτείνει αυτÞ το µέτρο, αγοράζοντασ επιπλέον πάγια εάν η αγορά εργασίασ δεν βελτιωθεί. «Εάν οι προοπτικέσ τησ αγοράσ εργασίασ δεν παρουσιάσουν ουσιαστική βελτίωση, η Επιτροπή θα συνεχίσει τισ αγορέσ διασφαλισµένων µε ενυπÞθηκα πάγια τίτλων, θα προβεί σε περαιτέρω αγορέσ παγίων και θα χρησιµοποιήσει και Þσα

άλλα εργαλεία πολιτικήσ κρίνονται κατάλληλα µέχρι να επιτευχθεί αυτή η βελτίωση», ανάφερε στην ανακοίνωση τησ. Η Fed ανακοίνωσε επίσησ Þτι θα συνεχίσει το πρÞγραµµα Operation Twist, στο πλαίσιο του οποίου πουλά βραχυπρÞθεσµα οµÞλογα και διοχετεύει τα έσοδα στην αγορά πιο µακροπρÞθεσµων τίτλων µε απώτερο στÞχο τη µείωση των µακροπρÞθεσµων επιτοκίων. Συνδυαστικά, η Fed θα αγοράζει µακροπρÞθεσµουσ τίτλουσ αξίασ 85 δισ. δολαρίων κάθε µήνα έωσ τα τέλη του έτουσ, σε σύγκριση µε τα 45 δισ. δολάρια που αγÞραζε έωσ τώρα στο πλαίσιο του Operation Twist. Παράλληλα θα τυπώνει περισσÞτερο χρήµα για να χρηµατοδοτεί τισ αγορέσ ενυπÞθηκων τίτλων, διογκώνοντασ το µέγεθοσ του ισολογισµού τησ που σήµερα φτάνει τα 2,8 τρισ. δολάρια. ΑκÞµα µια ωµή και άµεση παρέµβαση τησ Fed και δει του προέδρου τησ Ben Bernanke ο οποίοσ πιστÞσ στην φιλοσοφία του, του φθηνού δολαρίου µε αφορµή την κατάσταση εργασίασ στισ ΗΠΑ τυπώνει για ακÞµα µια φορά χρήµα σε µια περίοδο που οι οικονοµικοί δείκτεσ στισ ΗΠΑ είναι στο καλύτερο σηµείο 4ετίασ και µε τον Dow Jones σπάει το ένα ρεκÞρ 5ετίασ µετά το άλλο. Ùπωσ αναµενÞταν µετά την πιο πάνω παρέµβαση Ευρώ, Χρηµαταγορέσ, χρυσÞ, πετρέλαιο και εµπορεύµατα έκαναν πάρτι µε το δολάριο να διολισθαίνει σε νέο χαµηλÞ 5 µηνών. Και φυσικά Þλα αυτά ωφελούν, προσωρινά, στο έπακρο τισ ΗΠΑ που µε το φθηνÞ δολάριο και τον ψηλÞ πληθωρισµÞ µειώνουν το πραγµατικÞ τουσ χρέουσ ενώ απÞ την άλλη πλήττουν βάναυσα την ταλαιπωρηµένη Ευρωζώνη. Ειδικά η παραπαίουσα περιφερειακή ζώνη του Ευρώ µε τα χίλια µύρια προβλήµατα το τελευταίο πράγµα που θα ήθελε είναι ένα ακριβÞ Ευρώ που συνδυάστηκε και µε νέο ράλι στισ τιµέσ του πετρελαίου. Ειδικά το πετρέλαιο απÞ τα 70 δολάρια που ήταν προ δύο

ªÂÙÚ¿Ì ·ÓÙ›ÛÙÚÔÊ· ÁÈ· ÙËÓ ∆ÚfiÈη ΚινητικÞτητα παρατηρείται στισ διαπραγµατεύσεισ τησ Κύπρου µε την τρÞικα για τη συµφωνία πάνω στο πακέτο των µέτρων που αποτελεί προϋπÞθεση για την παροχή του δανείου προσ τη ∆ηµοκρατία. Ήδη αρχίσαµε να µετράµε αντίστροφα για την ηµεροµηνία καθÞδουσ τησ ΤρÞικα στην Κύπρο που αναµένεται να πραγµατοποιηθεί γύρω στα µέσα Οκτωβρίου, ενώ σύµφωνα µε εκτιµήσεισ κύκλων εκτÞσ ∆ΝΤ, είναι δυνατή η επίτευξη συµφωνίασ πάνω στο πακέτο των µέτρων περί τισ αρχέσ Νοεµβρίου. Με δεδοµένο αυτÞ, ωσ πιθανή ηµεροµηνία εκταµίευσησ του δανείου είναι τα µέσα ∆εκεµβρίου.

Να σηµειωθεί πωσ σύµφωνα µε τον ΥπουργÞ Οικονοµικών Βάσο Σιαρλή ο στÞχοσ για το δηµÞσιο έλλειµµα το 2013 θα είναι το 2,5%. «Το επÞµενο στάδιο τησ συζήτησησ θα είναι οι σχεδιασµοί µε τουσ οποίουσ θα πρέπει να προχωρήσουµε έτσι ώστε να µπορέσουµε να διασφαλίσουµε τον προϋπολογισµÞ που ζητείται εκ µέρουσ τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Επιτροπήσ ή τησ ΤρÞικασ», πρÞσθεσε. Σε γενικέσ γραµµέσ, είπε, «εργαζÞµαστε µε στÞχο να έχουµε τον επÞµενο χρÞνο ένα δηµÞσιο έλλειµµα τησ τάξησ του 2,5%».

∫·Ù·ÎfiÚ˘ÊË ¿ÓÔ‰Ô˜ ÛÙÔ Ã∞∫ ΚατακÞρυφη άνοδο, µετά τισ ζηµιέσ τησ ∆ευτέρασ, κατέγραψε χθεσ το Χρηµατιστήριο Αξιών Κύπρου, µε το ΓενικÞ ∆είκτη να παρουσιάζει κέρδη σε ποσοστÞ 7,95%, και να διαµορφώνεται στισ 121,46 µονάδεσ. Μεγάλη άνοδο σε ποσοστÞ 7,25% σηµείωσε και ο δείκτησ FTSE/CySE 20, ο οποίοσ ανήλθε στισ 47,46 µονάδεσ. Ο Þγκοσ συναλλαγών ανήλθε στο 1.033.915 ευρώ. Το ΓενικÞ ∆είκτη «έσπρωξαν» προσ τα πάνω τα κέρδη των Τραπεζών και τησ Κύριασ Αγοράσ. Οι δείκτεσ αυτοί σηµείωσαν άνοδο σε ποσοστÞ 8,88% και 8,69% αντίστοιχα. Το µεγαλύτερο επενδυτικÞ ενδιαφέρον προσέλκυσαν οι τίτλοι τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου µε Þγκο 577.716 ευρώ (τιµή κλεισίµατοσ 0,271 ευρώ - άνοδο 11,98%), τησ Λαϊκήσ Τράπεζασ µε Þγκο 369.825 ευρώ (τιµή 0,042 ευρώ – άνοδο 2,44%), τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ µε Þγκο 21.806 ευρώ (τιµή κλεισίµατοσ

0,199 ευρώ – άνοδοσ 1,01%), τησ Cyprus Cement Public Company µε Þγκο ∆ήµητρα Επενδυτική µε 16.271 ευρώ (τιµή 0,286 ευρώ – άνοδοσ 1,06%). Στο Χρηµατιστήριο Αθηνών η χθεσινή συνεδρίαση υπήρξε µια απÞ τισ πιο συναρπαστικέσ των τελευταίων µηνών στο Χ.Α., µε τον ΓενικÞ ∆είκτη να ανακάµπτει απÞ απώλειεσ άνω του 2% και τη διακύµανση του τραπεζικού δείκτη να ξεπερνά το 15%. Ο γενικÞσ δείκτησ εκλεισε στισ 755,98 µονάδεσ µε κέρδη 2,86%. ΑπÞ τη σύνθεση του FTSE20 ξεχώρισαν τα διψήφια ποσοστιαία κέρδη των Τρ. Κύπρου, Eurobank και MIG, καθώσ και η άνοδοσ τησ ∆ΕΗ. Αναλυτικά απÞ τον FTSE20, η Τρ. Κύπρου έκλεισε µε κέρδη 13,75% στα 0,273 ευρώ. Για τισ Alpha Bank και Cyprus PB οι συναλλαγέσ έκλεισαν µε άνοδο 7,69% και 7,50%.

∞∏∫: K·ı˘ÛÙÂÚË̤Ó˜ ÂÈÛÚ¿ÍÂȘ €40 ÂÎ. Στα 40 εκ. ευρώ ανέρχονται οι καθυστερηµένεσ εισπράξεισ για την Αρχή Ηλεκτρισµού Κύπρου µέχρι τον Ιούνιο του 2012, σύµφωνα µε στοιχεία που κατατέθηκαν ενώπιον τησ Κοινοβουλευτικήσ Επιτροπήσ Ελέγχου, η οποία εξέτασε την έκθεση τησ Γενικήσ Ελέγκτριασ Χρυστάλλασ Γιωρκάτζη για την Αρχή για το έτοσ 2011. Το ποσÞ είναι ακÞµη µεγαλύτερο και αγγίζει τα 156 εκ. ευρώ Þταν συµπεριληφθεί και η µη τιµολογηµένη κατανάλωση καθώσ και ανείσπρακτοι λογαριασµοί. Εν τω µεταξύ, πολύ πιο κάτω απÞ τα 200 εκ. ευρώ θα

είναι το κÞστοσ τησ ΑΗΚ απÞ την έκρηξη στο Μαρί, κÞστοσ για το οποίο εκχωρήθηκε το δικαίωµα σε ασφαλιστικέσ εταιρείεσ να διεκδικήσουν απÞ το κράτοσ αποζηµιώσεισ, Þπωσ ανέφερε ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ ΑΗΚ Χάρη Θράσου. Ο πρÞεδροσ τησ ΑΗΚ υπογράµµισε ταυτÞχρονα Þτι η Αρχή ετοίµασε πρÞγραµµα για µείωση του προσωπικού και εξορθολογισµÞ των επιδοµάτων, διευκρινίζοντασ Þτι ο οργανισµÞσ προχώρησε στην αναστολή του επιδÞµατοσ άτοκου δανείου για την αγορά οχήµατοσ, για υποτροφίεσ και επίδοµα κυλικείου.

µηνών Þταν το Ευρώ διαπραγµατευÞταν κοντά στα 1.20 έχει φθάσει είδη τα 100 δολάρια σηµειώνοντασ µια εκρηκτική άνοδο πέραν του 40%. Βασικά για άνοδο 8% τησ ισοτιµίασ Ευρώ - ∆ολαρίου το πετρέλαιο ενισχύθηκε περισσÞτερο απÞ 40%. Ενώ πάνω κάτω συµβαίνει και το ίδιο µε τισ τιµέσ των πρώτων αγαθών. ΜÞνο µε αυτÞ µπορεί πολύ εύκολα να αντιληφθεί ο καθένασ πÞσο ζηµιογÞνα και καταστροφική είναι για την Ευρωζώνη υπÞ τισ υπάρχουσεσ συνθήκεσ να διατηρεί ακριβÞ νÞµισµα. Φυσικά Þλοι το αντιλαµβάνονται εκτÞσ βεβαίωσ απÞ τουσ Γερµανούσ οι οποίοι κυνηγώντασ πληθωριστικά φαντάσµατα του παρελθÞντοσ δεν επιτρέπουν την υποτίµηση του Ευρώ µε τον τρÞπο που το επιτρέπουν και το εφαρµÞζουν οι Αµερικάνοι. Τεχνικά το εβδοµαδιαίο σπάσιµο του 1,2850 έχει σηµατοδοτήσει και το τέλοσ τησ βραχυπρÞθεσµησ πτωτικήσ τάσησ τησ ισοτιµίασ. Πλέον η ισοτιµία έχει αποκτήσει ανοδικÞ momentum και έχει ανοίξει διάπλατα ο δρÞµοσ για τα 1.331.35. Βεβαίωσ η ισοτιµία είναι πολύ υπεραγορασµένη αφού η ανοδική κίνηση των τελευταίων δύο εβδοµάδων έγινε πολύ βίαια και απÞτοµα και µια σηµαντική διÞρθωση κάτω απÞ τα 1.30 αναµένεται τισ επÞµενεσ εβδοµάδεσ. ΑπÞ την άλλη Þµωσ µετά τον χρησµÞ τησ Fed που Þχι µÞνο προχώρησε σε QE3 αλλά διαβεβαιώνει πωσ δεν θα σταµατήσει να τυπώνει χρήµα µέχρι να φθάσει το ποσοστÞ ανεργίασ στα επιθυµητά επίπεδα, η ανοδική βραχυπρÞθεσµη τάση θα ενισχύετε και δεν αποκλείεται το ανοδικÞ ξέσπασµα τησ ισοτιµίασ να ξεφύγει και να πλησιάσει ακÞµα και τα 1.40. Φυσικά σε αυτά τα επίπεδα µιλάµε για φούσκα και σε µεσοπρÞθεσµο ορίζοντα είναι απλÞσ θέµα χρÞνου τÞσο η ισοτιµία Þσο και οι χρηµαταγορέσ θα διολισθήσουν και πάλι.

§·˚΋: ∞ÓÙÈÚfi‰ÚÔ˜ Ô ∫ÚȘ ¶·‡ÏÔ˘ Το διορισµÞ του Κρισ Παύλου ωσ µη εκτελεστικού αντιπροέδρου του διοικητικού συµβουλίου του Οµίλου ανακοίνωσε η Λαϊκή Τράπεζα. Η Τράπεζα ανακοίνωσε επίσησ Þτι, κατά τη διάρκεια τησ απουσίασ του ∆ιευθύνοντοσ Συµβούλου του Οµίλου, κ. Χρίστου Στυλιανίδη µε άδεια ασθενείασ, προσωρινά καθήκοντα ωσ Αναπληρών Πρώτοσ ΕκτελεστικÞσ ∆ιευθυντήσ θα εκτελεί ο κ. Τάκησ Φειδία, ο οποίοσ και θα αποσπασθεί απÞ την CNP Laiki Insurance Holdings Ltd. Ο Κρισ Παύλου εργάσθηκε στην Τράπεζα Barclays, και αργÞτερα προσλήφθηκε στην HongKong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Ltd (HSBC) και ωσ Πρώτοσ ∆ιευθυντήσ τησ Υπηρεσίασ ∆ιαπραγµάτευσησ Συναλλάγµατοσ και ∆ιαθεσίµων (Treasury). Το 1995 η HSBC αναγνωρίστηκε ωσ η ηγετική Τράπεζα στισ εργασίεσ Treasury, µε εξαίρεση την Ιαπωνία. Με τη συνταξιοδÞτησή του, προσελήφθη στη Λαϊκή Τράπεζα (η HSBC κατείχε το 23% τησ Λαϊκήσ) ωσ Σύµβουλοσ και κατÞπιν ωσ µέλοσ του ∆ιοικητικού Συµβουλίου. Απεχώρησε το τέλοσ του 2004. Το 2006, προσλήφθηκε στην TFI Þπου απεχώρησε τον Οκτώβριο του 2009.



ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | 3/15

¢ÈÔÚıˆÙÈ΋ ÔÚ›· ÛÙËÓ Û·Ù¿ÏË; ∞¡∆ø¡∏™ §√π∑√À ∞ÓÙÒÓ˘ §Ô›˙Ô˘ F.R.I.C.S. & ™˘ÓÂÚÁ¿Ù˜ §Ù‰, ∂ÎÙÈÌËÙ¤˜ ∞ÎÈÓ‹ÙˆÓ & ¢È·¯ÂÈÚÈÛÙ¤˜ ŒÚÁˆÓ ∞Ó¿Ù˘Í˘

Η κατάσταση στην οικονοµία και οι συνεχώσ αυξανÞµενοι άνεργοι, ωσ επίσησ το συνεχέσ κλείσιµο των επιχειρήσεων, είναι δεδοµένα τησ καθηµερινÞτητασ πλέον. Βιώσαµε κάπωσ µια παρÞµοια οικονοµική κατάσταση µετά το 1974, αλλά τÞτε υπήρχε και η ελπίδα ανάκαµψησ, ενώ τώρα Þχι µÞνο δεν διαβλέπουµε ελπίδα, αλλά δεν έχουµε και την στήριξη των εταίρων µασ στην Ευρώπη, ενώ η Ελλάδα βρίσκεται σε χειρÞτερη µοίρα, αδυνατώντασ να µασ στηρίξει, µάλλον το αντίθετο. Παρατηρώντασ Þµωσ τισ συµπεριφορέσ µασ, είναι επίσησ δεδοµένο Þτι έχουµε αρχίσει κάπωσ δειλά-δειλά να προσγειωνÞµαστε στην σηµερινή πραγµατικÞτητα. Έχουµε γίνει πιο ευαίσθητοι στα έξοδα και στην παρακολούθηση τουσ. Στο στάδιο αυτÞ οι προσπάθειεσ Þλων µασ είναι ο περιορισµÞσ των εξÞδων και ιδιαίτερα οι σπατάλεσ. Παρακολουθούµε τώρα τον λογαριασµÞ του ρεύµατοσ µε ευλάβεια, κλείνουµε τα κλιµατιστικά Þταν δεν χρειάζονται, τα φώτα του κήπου ανάβουν µÞνο ορισµένεσ ώρεσ/περιÞδουσ, το ψώνισµα είναι περιορισµένο στα άκρωσ αναγκαία και η ποικιλία των αγορών αρχίζει να είναι πολυτέλεια. Έχουµε προσέξει Þτι π.χ. υπεραγορέσ χαµηλού κÞστουσ π.χ. Lidl έχουν ένα αυξητικÞ ενδιαφέρον και δεν δίδεται ιδιαίτερη σηµασία στην µάρκα. Ùσον και να σασ φαίνεται παρά-

ξενο ακÞµη και φαγητά χαµηλού κÞστουσ (π.χ. σουβλάκια, πίτσεσ κλπ) δείχνουν µια κατιούσα πορεία στην ζήτηση τουσ, ενώ cafe και µπαράκια διαβιώνουν και αυτά µια κατιούσα στα εισοδήµατα, µε περιορισµένη κατανάλωση και αύξηση τησ ώρασ παραµονήσ. Ùσον αφορά τισ αγορέσ αυτοκινήτων, ιδιαίτερα εκείνων του ψηλού κÞστουσ, η διαπίστωση είναι «ελεύθερη πτώση χωρίσ τέλοσ». Αυτά λοιπÞν είναι οι πρώτεσ ενδείξεισ για την αρχή στην µείωση του σπάταλου µασ βιοτικού επιπέδου. Ασφαλώσ υπάρχουν εξαιρέσεισ και µην σασ παρασύρουν οι επιφανειακοί καταναλωτέσ του πλούτου, διÞτι αυτοί είναι περιορισµένοι, ενώ Þσον αφορά τουσ ορισµένουσ νέουσ που ζουν µε το εισÞδηµα των γονέων τουσ, αυτÞ δεν είναι γενικÞ φαινÞµενο. Στον τοµέα των ακινήτων παρουσιάζεται µια σοβαρή µειωτική τάση στισ πωλήσεισ και αύξηση στισ ενοικιάσεισ. Είναι προσεκτÞ Þτι στισ ενοικιάσεισ είναι σχεδÞν περιορισµένη η ζήτηση προερχÞµενη απÞ ένα ενοικιαστή και συνήθωσ είναι είτε απÞ ζευγάρια, είτε απÞ ενοικιαστέσ εξ’ ανάγκησ (π.χ. διαζευγµένοι, µεταθέσεισ σε εργασία κλπ). Αυτέσ Þµωσ οι ενοικιάσεισ περιορίζονται σε κεντρικά σηµεία των πÞλεων και η διάρκεια τησ ενοικίασησ δεν ξεπερνά τον ένα χρÞνο, οι δε πρÞνοιεσ που προϋπήρχαν για αυξήσεισ, Þχι µÞνο δεν υπάρχουν, αλλά η Þλη προσπάθεια πλέον απÞ τουσ ιδιοκτήτεσ είναι η διατήρηση του ενοικιαστή και ιδιαίτερα η πληρωµή του ενοικίου, αποδεχÞµενοι απÞ τισ τιµέσ του 2008 επίσησ µια µείωση τησ τάξησ του 10%-15%. Τα ενοίκια διαµερισµάτων διαµορφώνονται τώρα σε µέσο Þρο για τουσ Κύπριουσ ενοικιαστέσ ωσ ακολούθωσ:

∂¶∞: ¶Ú¿ÛÈÓÔ Êˆ˜ ÁÈ· deal Laiko-Cosmos Trading Συµβατή µε τισ απαιτήσεισ τησ ανταγωνιστικήσ αγοράσ έκρινε η Επιτροπή Προστασίασ Ανταγωνισµού τη δηµιουργία τησ κοινήσ επιχείρησησ Laiko-Cosmos Trading απÞ τισ εταιρείεσ Laiko Distributors και Cosmos. Οι συµµετέχουσεσ στην παρούσα συγκέντρωση επιχειρήσεισ είναι οι ακÞλουθεσ: Η Omilos Laikou Distributors Ltd είναι εταιρεία περιορισµένησ ευθύνησ, δεÞντωσ εγγεγραµµένη σύµφωνα µε τουσ νÞµουσ τησ Κυπριακήσ ∆ηµοκρατίασ. Η Laiko Distributors δραστηριοποιείται στη διανοµή και πώληση τροφίµων, ποτών, µη τροφίµων (π.χ. πλαστικέσ σακούλεσ, τσάντεσ, είδη συσκευασίασ) και προϊÞντων κινητήσ τηλεφωνίασ στην Κυπριακή αγορά. Η Cosmos Trading Ltd είναι εταιρεία περιορισµένησ ευθύνησ, δεÞντωσ εγγεγραµµένη σύµφωνα µε τουσ νÞµουσ τησ Κυπριακήσ ∆ηµοκρατίασ. Η Cosmos δραστηριοποιείται στη διανοµή και πώληση τροφίµων, µη τροφίµων (π.χ. πλαστικά γάντια) και καπνικών προϊÞντων στην Κυπριακή αγορά. Η Υπηρεσία, ενεργώντασ στη βάση των διατάξεων του άρθρου 35 του ΝÞµου, µε σχετική επιστολή τησ µε ηµεροµηνία 17 Ιουλίου 2012 ενηµέρωσε τον ΥπουργÞ Εµπορίου, Βιοµηχανίασ και Τουρισµού σχετικά µε την κοινοποιηθείσα συγκέντρωση. Ùπωσ διαπιστώθηκε οι δύο ιδρυτικέσ εταιρείεσ δεν έχουν συνδυαζÞµενα µερίδια

αγοράσ που να υπερβαίνουν το 15% στισ αγορέσ των κατεψυγµένων λαχανικών, ψαριών σε κονσέρβαρα κατεψυγµένων ψαριών, ελαιολάδου, τυριού, κρασιού και ούζου. Σχετικά µε την αγορά του οινοπνευµατώδουσ ποτού βÞτκα, στο οποίο η εταιρεία Cosmos κατέχει σηµαντικÞ µερίδιο αγορά και το Laiko ένα µικρÞ µερίδιο η Υπηρεσία επισηµαίνει Þτι Þπωσ έχουν αναφέρει τα εµπλεκÞµενα µέρη, στην Laiko-Cosmos θα µεταφερθεί µÞνο η χονδρική πώληση και διανοµή τησ βÞτκα µε την εµπορική επωνυµία Absolute. Η πώληση και διανοµή τησ βÞτκα ΛΟΕΛ την οποία πωλεί και διανέµει η Laiko Distributors, δεν θα πωλείται/διανέµεται απÞ τη νέα εταιρεία. ΥπÞ το φωσ των πιο πάνω, η Επιτροπή κρίνει Þτι, δεν προκύπτει στην προκείµενη περίπτωση επηρεαζÞµενη αγορά µε βάση τισ πρÞνοιεσ του ΝÞµου. Με γνώµονα τα πραγµατικά και νοµικά δεδοµένα, Þπωσ αναλύθηκαν και σκιαγραφήθηκαν και Þπωσ στη λεπτοµέρειά τουσ αναδεικνύονται και βεβαιώνονται απÞ το φάκελο τησ υπÞ κρίση συγκέντρωσησ αλλά και εφαρµÞζοντασ τισ σχετικέσ διατάξεισ του ΝÞµου, η Επιτροπή, ασκώντασ τισ εξουσίεσ που χορηγούνται σε αυτή σύµφωνα µε το ΝÞµο και λαµβάνοντασ υπÞψη τη σχετική έκθεση τησ Υπηρεσίασ, κατέληξε στην οµÞφωνη απÞφαση Þτι στην υπÞ αναφορά συγκέντρωση δεν τίθεται θέµα δηµιουργίασ ή ενίσχυσησ δεσπÞζουσασ θέσησ καθώσ δεν υπάρχει επηρεαζÞµενη αγορά.

Η ζήτηση για διαµερίσµατα ψηλήσ ποιÞτητασ και εδώ αναφερÞµεθα σε µονάδεσ των 2 και 3 υπνοδωµατίων ενοικιάζονται κατά 100% στην ΛεµεσÞ και κατά 30% στισ άλλεσ πÞλεισ. Στον τοµέα αυτÞ τησ ενοικίασησ ιδιαίτερα των διαµερισµάτων θα πρέπει να δοθεί ιδιαίτερη προσοχή στην πληρωµή των κοινοχρήστων. Αν και είναι θέµα που αφορά τουσ Þρουσ του ενοικιαστηρίου εγγράφου, εντούτοισ στο τέλοσ τησ ηµέρασ ο υπεύθυνοσ για την πληρωµή είναι ο ιδιοκτήτησ τησ µονάδασ. Στον τοµέα των καταστηµάτων έχει σχεδÞν καθιερωθεί ωσ γενικÞ η µείωση των ενοικίων κατά 20% απÞ τα ενοίκια του 2008 (τα ελεύθερα ενοίκια), ενώ ο αέρασ για τα καταστήµατα (εµπορική εύνοια) δεν υπάρχει πλέον, προκαλώντασ µια πολύ µεγάλη ζηµιά στουσ ενοικιαστέσ εκείνουσ που πλήρωσαν αέρα και τώρα δεν µπορούν να τον εισπράξουν. Ωσ τώρα οι καταστηµατάρχεσ επιβιώνουν απÞ τα αποθέµατα τουσ, αλλά για πÞσο καιρÞ; Παρατηρείται µια εκδήλωση ενδιαφέ-

ροντοσ, έστω δειλή, για χαµηλού κÞστουσ προϊÞντα π.χ. χαµηλού κÞστουσ κοσµήµατα, δώρα κλπ. ∆εν γνωρίζουµε που θα καταλήξει η Þλη κατάσταση, αλλά σουβλάκια σε δισκάκια σε υπεραγορέσ µε ηµεροµηνία λήξησ 1-2 µηνών, προσφέρονται για 50% τησ κανονικήσ τιµήσ µε τον υπεύθυνο τησ υπεραγοράσ να µασ πληροφορεί Þτι είναι «ακατανÞητο» - Είναι Þµωσ; Ùσον δε αφορά το θέµα των πολυτελών κατοικιών για Κύπριουσ είναι ιστορία του παρελθÞντοσ. Τέρµα στισ κατοικίεσ απÞ 500 τ.µ. και σε µεγάλα γήπεδα. ΤÞσο η µη ύπαρξη τησ χρηµατοδÞτησησ, Þσο και η αβεβαιÞτητα του µέλλοντοσ, έχουν επηρεάσει και αυτήν την τάξη των αγοραστών (δικηγÞρουσ/ελεγκτέσ/γιατρούσ κλπ), λÞγω τησ αναβλητικÞτητασ στην οικονοµία και ίσωσ εξαγωγήσ των δικών τουσ αποθεµάτων στο εξωτερικÞ. Ùλα αυτά λοιπÞν µασ προσγειώνουν στην σηµερινή πραγµατικÞτητα και µασ στενοχωρεί.



4/16 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ

∂Ê·ÚÌÔÁ‹ ÛÙÔ Facebook Û·˜ ÌÂÈÒÓÂÈ ÙÔ Ú‡̷ ∏ ÂÊ·ÚÌÔÁ‹ «∫ÔÈÓˆÓÈÎfi˜ ∏ÏÂÎÙÚÈÛÌfi˜» (Social Electricity) Â›Ó·È ÌÈ· ηÈÓÔ‡ÚÈ· ÂÊ·ÚÌÔÁ‹ ÛÙÔ Facebook, Ë ÔÔ›· ·ÚÔ˘ÛÈ¿˙ÂÈ ÌÂÁ¿ÏÔ ÂӉȷʤÚÔÓ ÏfiÁˆ Ù˘ ·ÁÎfiÛÌÈ·˜ ηÈÓÔÙÔÌ›·˜ Ù˘

Αποτελεί ερευνητικÞ έργο του τµήµατοσ Πληροφορικήσ του Πανεπιστηµίου Κύπρου, σε συνεργασία µε την Αρχή Ηλεκτρισµού Κύπρου (AHK), µε στÞχο την ευαισθητοποίηση του κοινού σε σχέση µε την κατανάλωση ηλεκτρικήσ ενέργειασ. ΣτÞχοσ τησ εφαρµογήσ είναι να εδραιωθεί στισ συνειδήσεισ των Κύπριων καταναλωτών µε στÞχο την µείωση τησ συνολικήσ κατανάλωσησ ενέργειασ στην Κύπρο, ειδικά δεδοµένου των δύσκολων ενεργειακών συνθηκών που επικρατούν στο νησί µασ, και αφετέρου για σκοπούσ αξιολÞγησησ του project σε µετέπειτα στάδιο. Η εφαρµογή Social Electricity είναι διαθέσιµη στο σύνδεσµο, για υπολογιστέσ µε λειτουργικÞ σύστηµα Windows XP/Vista/7 ή Apple Mac. Θα πρέπει να διατηρείτε λογαριασµÞ στο Facebook για να την χρησιµοποιήσετε. Μπορείτε επίσησ να κάνετε Like στη σελίδα στο Facebook (, ώστε να ενηµερώνεστε για τα τελευταία νέα του project και πιθανέσ

αναβαθµίσεισ τησ εφαρµογήσ. Γενικά, η εφαρµογή Social Electricity έχει σαν στÞχο να βοηθήσει τουσ Κύπριουσ πολίτεσ να κατανοήσουν την ηλεκτρική ενέργεια που καταναλώνουν µέσω συγκρίσεων µε την αντίστοιχη κατανάλωση των φίλων τουσ καθώσ και µε την συνολική κατανάλωση στην γειτονιά/οδÞ/χωριÞ/επαρχία στην οποία διαµένουν. ΜÞνο µέσω αποτελεσµατικών και ρεαλιστικών συγκρίσεων µπορεί ο καταναλωτήσ να αντιληφθεί την ενεργειακή του συµπεριφορά. Με αυτÞ τον τρÞπο, οι Κύπριοι πολίτεσ θα συνειδητοποιήσουν εάν καταναλώνουν µεγάλα ποσά ενέργειασ, και αυτή η συνειδητοποίηση αναµένεται Þτι θα τουσ ωθήσει να εργαστούν ώστε να µειώσουν την κατανάλωση τουσ καθώσ και τα χρηµατικά ποσά που καταβάλλουν κάθε διµηνία. Επίσησ, µέσω τησ εφαρµογήσ, οι καταναλωτέσ µπορούν να δουν στατιστικά που αφορούν τισ περιοχέσ µε την λιγÞτερη/περισσÞτερη κατανάλωση ενέργειασ στην περιοχή τουσ, την επαρχία που διαµένουν ή και ολÞκληρη τη Κύπρο. Η εφαρµογή Social Electricity αποτελεί καινοτÞµο έργο

σε παγκÞσµιο επίπεδο και έχει πάρει το πρώτο βραβείο σε διεθνή διαγωνισµÞ για Πράσινεσ Εφαρµογέσ Τεχνολογιών Πληροφορικήσ και Επικοινωνιών (2nd Green ICT Application Challenge), που διοργανώνει η ∆ιεθνήσ Ένωση Τηλεπικοινωνιών (International Telecommunications Union, ITU). Η ∆ιεθνήσ Ένωση Τηλεπικοινωνιών είναι ο εξειδικευµένοσ οργανισµÞσ των Ηνωµένων Εθνών για τισ τεχνολογίεσ πληροφοριών και επικοινωνίασ (Information and Communication Technologies, ICTs). Η επιτυχία τησ εφαρµογήσ λαµβάνεται ωσ ιδιαίτερα σηµαντική, έχοντασ υπÞψη το κύροσ και µέγεθοσ του οργανισµού (193 χώρεσ µέλη και πέραν απÞ 700 άλλα µέλη απÞ ιδιωτικέσ οργανώσεισ και ακαδηµαϊκά ιδρύµατα). Για περισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ, επικοινωνήστε µέσω email στο

¢ÂÓ Ì·˜ ·Ú¤ÛÔ˘Ó Ù· ÚÔÌfiÙ Οι Κύπριοι πολίτεσ είναι περισσÞτερο διστακτικοί σε Þ,τι αφορά τη χρήση των ροµπÞτ σε σχέση µε τον µέσο Ευρωπαίο. Σύµφωνα µε έρευνα τησ ΕΕ, περισσÞτερα απÞ τα δύο τρίτα των πολιτών τησ ΕΕ (70%) έχουν θετική άποψη για τα ροµπÞτ, ενώ το ποσοστÞ των Κύπριων που βλέπουν θετικά τη χρήση των ροµπÞτ φθάνει το 57%. Οι πλείστοι Κύπριοι (70%) θεωρούν Þτι η χρήση των ροµπÞτ θα πρέπει να γίνεται σε τοµείσ που είναι επικίνδυνοι για τον άνθρωπο Þπωσ στον τοµέα του διαστήµατοσ (σε σύγκριση µε το 52% των Ευρωπαίων ), την έρευνα και διάσωση (52% σε

σύγκριση µε 41% των Ευρωπαίων), τον στρατÞ (48% σε σύγκριση µε 41% των Ευρωπαίων) και την µεταποίηση (23% σε σύγκριση µε 50% των Ευρωπαίων). Η ενίσχυση τησ έρευνασ και τησ καινοτοµίασ στη ροµποτική είναι µία απÞ τισ προτεραιÞτητεσ του ψηφιακού θεµατολογίου τησ Ευρώπησ. Η ΕΕ θεωρεί Þτι τα ροµπÞτ είναι απαραίτητα για τη βιοµηχανική ανταγωνιστικÞτητα τησ Ευρώπησ και Þτι υπάρχουν πολλέσ νέεσ εφαρµογέσ Þπου τα ροµπÞτ θα µπορούσαν επίσησ να συµβάλουν στην ευηµερία των ανθρώπων, συµπεριλαµβανοµένων των πιο ευάλωτων οµάδων τησ κοινωνίασ.

Αυτή την εβδοµάδα, η Επιτροπή, µαζί µε ευρωπαϊκέσ επιχειρήσεισ στο χώρο, θα δεσµευτούν Þτι θα ενώσουν τισ προσπάθειέσ τουσ στην έρευνα και την καινοτοµία προκειµένου να προετοιµάσουν το έδαφοσ για την έρευνα στο τοµέα τησ ροµποτικήσ. Για την περίοδο 2007-2013, η Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή έχει δαπανήσει περίπου 600 εκατοµµύρια στην έρευνα για την ροµποτική. ΑπÞ το 2013 έωσ το 2020, 14 δισεκατοµµύρια προορίζονται για την υποστήριξη βασικών τεχνολογιών γενικήσ εφαρµογήσ και βιοµηχανιών Þπωσ η ροµποτική.

O ıfiÚ˘‚Ô˜ ÎÔÛÙ›˙ÂÈ ÛÙËÓ ∂∂ €40 ‰È˜ ¶ÂÙÚÔϛӷ: ÀÔ„‹ÊÈ· ÁÈ· European Business Award

Επικίνδυνη για τη δηµÞσια υγεία κρίνεται η ηχορύπανση. Η ΕΕ δηλώνει αποφασισµένη να µειώσει την έκθεση των πολιτών τησ στον θÞρυβο, καθώσ το πρÞβληµα αυτÞ έχει Þχι µÞνο κοινωνικέσ αλλά και οικονοµικέσ διαστάσεισ. Η ΕΕ κατάρτισε νέεσ µεθÞδουσ αξιολÞγησησ του θορύβου, γνωστέσ και ωσ CNOSSOS-ΕΕ. Οι µέθοδοι αυτοί θα αξιολογούν ποσοτικά τον θÞρυβο απÞ την κυκλοφορία των οδικών, σιδηροδροµικών και αεροπορικών µεταφορών και την βιοµηχανία, και θα παρέχουν συγκρίσιµα στοιχεία σχετικά µε τα επίπεδα θορύβου στα οποία εκτίθενται οι άνθρωποι. Η ΕΕ καλεί τα κράτη µέλη να αρχίσουν να χρησιµοποιούν τισ νέεσ µεθÞδουσ απÞ το 2017, Þταν θα αρχίσει η νέα πανευρωπαϊκή στρατηγική χαρτογράφησησ του θορύβου. Το κοινωνικÞ κÞστοσ του κυκλοφοριακού θορύβου, (σιδηροδροµικέσ και οδικέσ µεταφορέσ) σε ολÞκληρη την Ευρωπαϊκή Ενωση, υπολογίζεται σε 40 δισ ευρώ ετησίωσ, που ισοδυναµεί µε το 0,35% του ΑΕΠ τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ενωσησ. Σύµφωνα µε την Λευκή Βίβλο τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Επιτροπήσ του 2011 για τισ µεταφορέσ, οι εξωτερικέσ δαπάνεσ απÞ τον θÞρυβο που προκαλείται απÞ τισ µεταφορέσ θα είναι κατά 20 δισ ευρώ περισσÞτερεσ κάθε χρÞνο µέχρι το 2050 εάν δεν ληφθούν επιπρÞσθετα µέτρα.

Σηµαντική διάκριση αποτελεί για την κυπριακή εταιρεία πετρελαιοειδών ΠΕΤΡΟΛΙΝΑ η υποψηφιÞτητα τησ στα Ευρωπαϊκά Επιχειρηµατικά Βραβεία 2012. Η ΠΕΤΡΟΛΙΝΑ είναι υποψήφια στην κατηγορία Περιβαλλοντικήσ και Εταιρικήσ ΒιωσιµÞτητασ (Environment And Corporate Sustainability). Τα Ευρωπαϊκά Επιχειρηµατικά Βραβεία καθιερώθηκαν για να αναγνωρίζουν και να επιβραβεύουν την αριστεία, τισ βέλτιστεσ πρακτικέσ και την καινοτοµία των επιχειρήσεων σε ολÞκληρη την Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση. Θεωρούνται η βιτρίνα των επιτευγµάτων και των καινοτοµιών τησ Ευρώπησ στον επιχειρηµατικÞ τοµέα. Ùσοι επιθυµούν, µπορούν να υποστηρίξουν την υποψηφιÞτητα τησ ΠΕΤΡΟΛΙΝΑ µέσω τησ ηλεκτρονικήσ διεύθυνσησ Η ψηφοφορία λήγει στισ 17 Οκτωβρίου 2012, ενώ οι νικητέσ θα ανακοινωθούν κατά τη διάρκεια ειδικήσ τελετήσ, η οποία θα πραγµατοποιηθεί τον Απρίλιο του 2013.



ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | 5/17

«µig Brother» Ë ∫ÂÓÙÚÈ΋ ÁÈ· ÙȘ ÙÚ¿Â˙˜ ∂Ó‹ÌÂÚË ÁÈ· οı ÙÔ˘˜ ·fiÊ·ÛË, ÂÚÈÏ·Ì‚·ÓÔÌ¤ÓˆÓ Î·È ÌÂÁ¿ÏˆÓ ‰·ÓÂÈÔ‰ÔÙ‹ÛÂˆÓ Ú¤ÂÈ Ó· ÎÚ·ÙÔ‡Ó ÙËÓ ∫ÂÓÙÚÈ΋ ∆Ú¿Â˙· Ù˘ ∫‡ÚÔ˘ ÔÈ ÙÚ¿Â˙˜ Εν µέσω τησ κριτικήσ που ασκείται στα διοικητικά συµβούλια των δύο µεγάλων τραπεζών για ανεπαρκή έλεγχο τησ εκτελεστικήσ διεύθυνσησ και για λανθασµένεσ αποφάσεισ, η εποπτική αρχή επιχειρεί να σφίξει τα ζωνάρια και µε πρÞσφατη τησ εγκύκλιο σε Þλεσ τισ τράπεζεσ, απαιτεί να τισ στέλνονται αντίγραφα των πρακτικών των συνεδριάσεων των διοικητικών συµβουλίων των τραπεζών, και Þλων των θυγατρικών τουσ εντÞσ και εκτÞσ Κύπρου. Τα πρακτικά καταγράφουν συνήθωσ σηµαντικέσ αποφάσεισ των τραπεζών σε διάφορα ζητήµατα, που περιλαµβάνουν και µεγάλεσ δανειοδοτήσεισ. Η εγκύκλιοσ έχει αναδροµική ισχύει, καθώσ οι τράπεζεσ θα πρέπει να παραχωρήσουν τα πρακτικά Þλων των φετινών συνεδριάσεων των διοικητικών τουσ συµβουλίων. ΑπÞ τώρα και στο εξήσ, οι τράπεζεσ θα πρέπει να στέλνουν τα πρακτικά αµέσωσ µετά που θα επικυρωθούν, αλλά Þχι αργÞτερο του ενÞσ µηνÞσ µετά την κάθε συνεδρίαση. Με την εγκύκλιο η Κεντρική επιθυµεί να έχει πληροφÞρηση για Þλο το εύροσ των αποφάσεων που λαµβάνουν τα διοικητικά συµβούλια. Το ζητούµενο, για την εποπτική αρχή, είναι η άµεση ενηµέρωση για σηµαντικέσ αποφάσεισ, που µε το προηγούµενο καθεστώσ έφθαναν συνήθωσ στην ΚΤ µε πρωτοβουλία των ίδιων των τραπεζών. Κάποτε δε η ΚΤ ενηµερωνÞταν για αποφάσεισ µε µεγάλη χρονική υστέρηση καθώσ ο έλεγχοσ ρουτίνασ χρειαζÞταν ένα ή και ενάµιση έτοσ, εν µέρει, λÞγω υποστελέχωσησ του συγκεκριµένου τµήµατοσ. ΑπÞ τώρα και στο εξήσ, η ΚΤ θα ζητά λεπτοµέρειεσ για

αποφάσεισ που περιλαµβάνονται στα πρακτικά, που κτυπούν τα εποπτικά καµπανάκια. Ίσωσ να εξαιρεθούν απÞ τη συγκεκριµένη ρύθµιση κάποιεσ µικρέσ θυγατρικέσ ή αυτέσ που δεν ασκούν αµιγώσ τραπεζικέσ εργασίεσ. Αυτή αναµένεται πάντωσ να είναι µÞνο η αρχή, καθώσ η εταιρική διακυβέρνηση είναι απÞ τουσ βασικούσ πυλώνεσ των αλλαγών που θέλει να επιφέρει η ΚΤ στο τραπεζικÞ σύστηµα. Ùπωσ έχει ήδη ανακοινωθεί, τροχιοδροµούνται αλλαγέσ στο θέµα τησ ανεξαρτησίασ των διοικητικών συµβούλων των τραπεζών, στα θέµατα διαχείρισησ κινδύνου και στον τρÞπο διεξαγωγήσ γενικών συνελεύσεων.

∞¢ı›·˜ ·Ó·ÎÂÊ·Ï·ÈÔÔ›ËÛË ÙÔ 2013 Σύµφωνα πάντωσ µε τον διοικητή τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ, Πανίκο ∆ηµητριάδη η Κύπροσ επιδιώκει την άµεση ανακεφαλαιοποίηση των τραπεζών απÞ το ταµείο διάσωσησ τησ ευρωζώνησ αντί µέσω του κράτουσ απÞ το 2013. Ùπωσ δήλωσε ο κ. ∆ηµητριάδησ στη γερµανική οικονοµική εφηµερίδα Handelsblatt η Κύπροσ έχει ένα µεγάλο τραπεζικÞ τοµέα που χρειάζεται βοήθεια απÞ τον ΕυρωπαϊκÞ ΜηχανισµÞ ΣταθερÞτητασ. «Θα ήταν πολύ σηµαντικÞ για µασ ο ESM να ανακεφαλαιοποιεί απευθείασ τισ τράπεζεσ µασ απÞ τον Ιανουάριο του 2013», είπε στην εφηµερίδα. Σύµφωνα µε τον κ. ∆ηµητριάδη, αναµένεται η ολοκλήρωση τον Οκτώβριο του προγράµµατοσ βοήθειασ απÞ την ΕΕ και το ∆ΝΤ. Ανέφερε Þτι η Κύπροσ θα χρειαστεί βοήθεια µέχρι και

5 χρÞνια απÞ την ΕΕ και το ∆ΝΤ. Ο πρÞεδροσ του Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Juncker, άσκησε πιέσεισ στην Κύπρο προκειµένου να ολοκληρώσει το πρÞγραµµα διάσωσησ ζητώντασ να µην υπάρχει άλλη χρονοτριβή. Ùπωσ αναφέρεται στο δηµοσίευµα, η κυβέρνηση αναµένεται να ξεκινήσει διαβουλεύσεισ µε τα συνδικάτα, τα πολιτικά κÞµµατα και άλλουσ κοινωνικούσ εταίρουσ µέσα στισ επÞµενεσ εβδοµάδεσ, έτσι ώστε να σχηµατίσουν ένα πρÞγραµµα περικοπών που θα παρουσιάσουν στουσ διεθνείσ πιστωτέσ κάποια στιγµή τον επÞµενο µήνα. Η εφηµερίδα επικαλούµενη ανεπίσηµεσ πληροφορίεσ ανέφερε Þτι η Κύπροσ θα χρειαστεί 13 δισ ευρώ για την κάλυψη των χρηµατοδοτικών αναγκών τησ και των αναγκών του τραπεζικού τοµέα.

√È ƒÒÛÔÈ «·Ó¤‚·Û·Ó» ÙȘ ·Ê›ÍÂȘ Κοντά στο ψηλÞτερο σηµείο των τελευταίων ετών κυµάνθηκαν τον Αύγουστο οι τουριστικέσ αφίξεισ, µε την ρωσική αγορά να δίνει ακÞµα µια φορά ώθηση στον κυπριακÞ τουρισµÞ. Ùπωσ ανακοίνωσε η Στατιστική Υπηρεσία τον Αύγουστο υπήρξε αύξηση στισ αφίξεισ τουριστών τησ τάξησ του 7,9%, Þπωσ αναφέρεται στην ιστοσελίδα τησ Συγκεκριµένα, µε βάση τα αποτελέσµατα τησ Έρευνασ Ταξιδιωτών, οι αφίξεισ τουριστών τον Αύγουστο 2012 ανήλθαν σε 363.573 σε σύγκριση µε 337.013 τον Αύγουστο 2011, σηµειώθηκε δηλαδή αύξηση 7,9%. Τον Αύγουστο σηµειώθηκε αύξηση 55,5% στισ αφίξεισ τουριστών απÞ τη Ρωσία (απÞ 50.989 τον Αύγουστο του 2011 σε 79.291 τον Αύγουστο του 2012), 6,9% αύξηση απÞ τη Σουηδία (απÞ 17.344 σε 18.545), 13,8% αύξηση απÞ τη Γερµανία (απÞ 11.960 σε 13.616) και 1,9% αύξηση απÞ τη Νορβηγία (απÞ 9.919 σε 10.110 φέτοσ). Αντίθετα µείωση 7,0% σηµειώθηκε στισ αφίξεισ τουρι-

στών απÞ το Ηνωµένο Βασίλειο (146.136 τον Αύγουστο του 2012 σε σύγκριση µε 157.105 τον Αύγουστο του 2011) και 7,8% µείωση απÞ την Ελλάδα (12.251 σε σύγκριση µε 13.290 πέρσι). Για την περίοδο Ιανουαρίου – Αυγούστου 2012, οι αφίξεισ τουριστών ανήλθαν σε 1.728.766 σε σύγκριση µε 1.669.887 την αντίστοιχη περίοδο του 2011, σηµειώνοντασ αύξηση 3,5%.

πηÓÔÔ›ËÛË ∫√∆ Ικανοποίηση για τισ αφίξεισ φαίνεται να εκφράζει ο ΚυπριακÞσ ΟργανισµÞσ Τουρισµού. Σύµφωνα µε τον ΓενικÞ ∆ιευθυντήσ του ΚΟΤ, Μάριο Χαννίδη τα επίσηµα στοιχεία του κράτουσ επαληθεύουν τισ αρχικέσ εκτιµήσεισ του οργανισµού για µια επιτυχηµένη καλοκαιρινή περίοδο αφού και ο µήνασ Αύγουστοσ, µήνασ

µε ιδιαίτερη βαρύτητα, έκλεισε µε σηµαντική αύξηση στισ αφίξεισ. Ο κ. Χαννίδησ τÞνισε Þτι τα αποτελέσµατα σχετίζονται σε µεγάλο βαθµÞ µε την εντυπωσιακή πορεία που συνεχίζει να σηµειώνει η ρωσική αγορά, αφού η αύξηση για τον Αύγουστο 2012 έφτασε το 55.5%. Πολύ ικανοποιητικά κινήθηκαν επίσησ και οι αγορέσ τησ Γερµανίασ (αύξηση 13.8%) και τησ Σουηδίασ (αύξηση 6.9%). Ο κ. Χαννίδησ χαρακτήρισε τα αποτελέσµατα ωσ πολύ ικανοποιητικά, τονίζοντασ παράλληλα Þτι αυτά σε καµιά περίπτωση δεν θα οδηγήσουν τον ΚυπριακÞ Οργανισµού Τουρισµού αλλά και Þλουσ τουσ τουριστικούσ εταίρουσ στον εφησυχασµÞ. Ο ΚΟΤ τÞνισε, θα συνεχίσει να εργάζεται ακούραστα για την επίτευξη των καλύτερων δυνατών αποτελεσµάτων στον τουρισµÞ, έτσι ώστε να συνεχιστεί η σηµαντική συνεισφορά του τοµέα στην οικονοµία του τÞπου κατά τη δύσκολη περίοδο που διανύουµε.

∫·˙›ÓÔ: ¶ÏÂÔÓÂÎÙ‹Ì·Ù· Î·È ÌÂÈÔÓÂÎÙ‹Ì·Ù· «¢È·‚·Ṳ̂ÓÔÈ ÔÈ ∫‡ÚÈÔÈ» ϤÂÈ Ë ∂∂ Η Κύπροσ βρίσκεται ανάµεσα στισ χώρεσ τησ Ευρώπησ µε τισ περισσÞτερεσ περιφέρειεσ που έχουν το µεγαλύτερο ποσοστÞ ατÞµων µε σπουδέσ τριτοβάθµιασ εκπαίδευσησ (πτυχίο ή µεταπτυχιακÞ δίπλωµα master’s ή ισοδύναµο). Σύµφωνα µε έκθεση τησ ΚοµισιÞν, µε τίτλο «Προσοχή στο χάσµα ανισÞτητεσ εκπαίδευσησ στισ περιφέρειεσ τησ ΕΕ», υπάρχουν σηµαντικέσ ανισÞτητεσ ωσ προσ τισ ευκαιρίεσ εκπαίδευσησ και τα αποτελέσµατα µεταξύ των κρατών µελών και τισ διάφορεσ περιφέρειεσ των κρατών. Η έκθεση δείχνει Þτι υπάρχει χάσµα µορφωτικού επιπέδου µεταξύ Βορρά και ΝÞτου, µε τα υψηλÞτερα ποσοστά ατÞµων χαµηλού µορφωτικού επιπέδου, µέχρι κατώτερη δευτεροβάθµια εκπαίδευση το πολύ, κυρίωσ σε περιοχέσ τησ ΝÞτιασ Ευρώπησ και ιδίωσ στην Ισπανία και την Πορτογαλία. Αντίθετα, οι περιφέρειεσ µε τα χαµηλÞτερα ποσοστά ατÞµων χαµηλού µορφωτικού επιπέδου βρίσκονται, ωσ επί το πλείστον, στο Ηνωµένο Βασίλειο, το Βέλγιο, τισ Κάτω Χώρεσ και τη Σουηδία. Οι χώρεσ τησ Ευρώπησ εκτÞσ απÞ την Κύπρο, µε το µεγαλύτερο ποσοστÞ σπουδών είναι το Ηνωµένο Βασίλειο, οι Κάτω Χώρεσ και η ΒÞρεια Ισπανία.

Εξειδικευµένο και επίκαιρο συνέδριο ενÞψει του δηµÞσιου διαλÞγου για την ίδρυση καζίνο στην Κύπρο, το οποίο θα ασχοληθεί µε τα πλεονεκτήµατα και τα µειονεκτήµατα τησ δηµιουργίασ καζίνο στην Κύπρο, προγραµµατίζεται για τισ 5 Οκτωβρίου. Το Συνέδριο µε τίτλο «Casino in Cyprus: Advantages and Disadvantages», διοργανώνεται απÞ την KPMG, είναι κάτω υπÞ την αιγίδα του ΚΕΒΕ και θα πραγµατοποιηθεί την Παρασκευή 5 Οκτωβρίου 2012 (απÞ τισ 9:00 µέχρι τισ 17:00) στο ξενοδοχείο Hilton Cyprus, στη Λευκωσία. ΣκοπÞσ του Συνεδρίου είναι να εξετάσει Þλεσ τισ πτυχέσ που αφορούν την ίδρυση καζίνο στην Κύπρο, µε βάση τισ διεθνείσ εµπειρίεσ και πρακτικέσ. Κατά τισ εργασίεσ του το Συνέδριο θα εξετάσει: Τα υπέρ και τα κατά απÞ την ίδρυση καζίνο στην Κύπρο, Τισ διάφορεσ µορφέσ στοιχήµατοσ (καζίνο, ηλεκτρονικά παιχνίδια, κλπ), Το νοµικÞ πλαίσιο για το στοίχηµα και την ίδρυση καζίνο στην Κύπρο, Τα πλεονεκτήµατα του καζίνο για την τουριστική ανάπτυξη τησ Κύπρου, Τισ κοινωνικέσ προεκτάσεισ απÞ την ίδρυση καζίνο στην Κύπρο, Τισ διεθνείσ εµπειρίεσ για το στοίχηµα και τη δηµιουργία καζίνο και θα παρουσιάσει καζίνο άλλων χωρών µε περίπου τα ίδια χαρακτηριστικά µε την Κύπρο.

Στο Συνέδριο θα προσκληθούν για να παραστούν και να µιλήσουν Υπουργοί, Αρχηγοί ή ΕκπρÞσωποι των κοµµάτων, ΠρÞεδροι Επιτροπών τησ Βουλήσ, το ΚΕΒΕ, ο ΚΟΤ, η Ένωση ∆ήµων, η Αστυνοµία, καθώσ και ειδικοί απÞ την Κύπρο, τισ ΗΠΑ και τη Βρετανία για τα θέµατα καζίνο και στοιχήµατοσ. Η γλώσσα του Συνεδρίου θα είναι η ελληνική, αλλά θα υπάρχει ταυτÞχρονη µετάφραση στην αγγλική για το ξένο ακροατήριο. Ùσοι ενδιαφέρονται να παρακολουθήσουν το ενδιαφέρον αυτÞ Συνέδριο, θα πρέπει να συµπληρώσουν την επισυναπτÞµενη αίτηση ενδιαφέροντοσ και να την αποστείλουν στην εταιρεία fmw financial media way (φαξ.: 22342006), που τησ ανατέθηκαν οι εργασίεσ του. Το κÞστοσ για συµµετοχή στο Συνέδριο που περιλαµβάνει την παρακολούθηση του Συνεδρίου καθώσ και το γεύµα, ανέρχεται για ατοµική συµµετοχή στο ποσÞ των 200 ευρώ συν ΦΠΑ. Για οµαδική συµµετοχή άνω των 5 ατÞµων απÞ τον ίδιο οργανισµÞ ή εταιρεία το κÞστοσ ανέρχεται στα 100 ευρώ συν ΦΠΑ κατ’ άτοµο. Για φοιτητέσ το κÞστοσ ανέρχεται στα 50 ευρώ συν ΦΠΑ. Το κÞστοσ συµµετοχήσ θα πρέπει να προπληρωθεί πριν την ηµεροµηνία διεξαγωγήσ τησ ηµερίδασ. Για επικοινωνία και επιπλέον πληροφορίεσ για το Συνέδριο στο τηλέφωνο 22342005.



6/18 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ

√È ∫ÈÓ¤˙ÔÈ ÌÔ˚ÎÔÙ¿ÚÔ˘Ó ÙËÓ Κύµα διαµαρτυριών έχει ξεσπάσει στην Κίνα σε βάροσ τησ Ιαπωνίασ, µετά την απÞφαση τησ κυβέρνησησ του ΤÞκιο να προχωρήσει στην αγορά ενÞσ διαφιλονικούµενου συµπλέγµατοσ νήσων, του Σενκάκου για τουσ Ιάπωνεσ και Ντιαογιού για τουσ Κινέζουσ. Ήδη στην αναστολή τησ λειτουργίασ των εργοστασίων τουσ στην Κίνα για µερικέσ µέρεσ ή, ενδεχοµένωσ, και για εβδοµάδεσ προχώρησαν αρκετέσ γνωστέσ ιαπωνικέσ επιχειρήσεισ. Αιτία είναι το κύµα διαµαρτυριών που έχει ξεσπάσει. Μεταξύ άλλων η Honda, η Mazda, η Nissan, η Canon, η Panasonic και άλλεσ επι-

χειρήσεισ ανακοίνωσαν Þτι λαµβάνουν ανάλογα µέτρα καθώσ αναµένουν οι επιθέσεισ σε βάροσ τουσ να λάβουν µεγάλη έκταση, λÞγω και τησ επετείου τησ κατοχήσ απÞ την Ιαπωνία αρκετών περιοχών στην κινεζική ενδοχώρα. Οι ίδιεσ εταιρείεσ και οι διπλωµατικέσ αρχέσ κάλεσαν Þσουσ Ιάπωνεσ εργάζονται στην Κίνα να είναι ιδιαιτέρωσ προσεκτικοί και, αν είναι δυνατÞ, να παραµείνουν στα σπίτια τουσ. Παράλληλα, η αεροπορική εταιρεία All Nippon Airways ανέφερε Þτι υπάρχουν πολλέσ ακυρώσεισ στισ πτήσεισ απÞ την Κίνα, ενώ πολλά ιαπωνικά σχολεία στη χώρα παρέ-

µειναν κλειστά. Επίσησ, στο χρηµατιστήριο του Χονγκ Κονγκ παρατηρήθηκε κύµα πωλήσεων στισ µετοχέσ των εισηγµένων εκεί ιαπωνικών εταιρειών. Αξίζει, µάλιστα, να σηµειωθεί Þτι, Þπωσ ανακοίνωσε η Panasonic, µία απÞ τισ εγκαταστάσεισ τησ έγινε στÞχοσ σαµποτάζ εκ των έσω, απÞ Κινέζουσ εργαζÞµενουσ απÞδειξη Þτι η κατάσταση έχει γίνει πολύ επικίνδυνη. Επισήµωσ, το Πεκίνο καλεί τουσ πάντεσ να σεβαστούν τη νοµιµÞτητα και δεσµεύεται Þτι θα προστατεύσει τη σωµατική ακεραιÞτητα και τισ περιουσίεσ των Ιαπώνων. Την ίδια στιγµή, ωστÞσο, ακολουθεί επιθετική πολιτική

στο επίµαχο θέµα, καθώσ αναµενÞταν να αποπλεύσει στÞλοσ περίπου 1.000 κινεζικών αλιευτικών µε κατεύθυνση το νησιωτικÞ σύµπλεγµα και υπÞ την προστασία του πολεµικού ναυτικού. Πώσ θα απαντήσει, άραγε, το ΤÞκιο σε αυτή την κλιµάκωση; Και τι θα κάνουν οι ισχυρÞτατεσ αεροναυτικέσ δυνάµεισ των ΗΠΑ στον ΕιρηνικÞ σε περίπτωση «θερµού επεισοδίου»; Πάντωσ την πρÞθεση τησ Ουάσιγκτον να προσφύγει στον ΠΟΕ κατά τησ Κίνασ, καταγγέλλοντάσ την για παράνοµεσ επιδοτήσεισ σε αυτοκίνητα και ανταλλακτικά, ανακοίνωσαν Αµερικανοί αξιωµατούχοι.

ºÚÂÓ›Ùȉ· ÁÈ· ÙÔ iPhone 5 Η αµερικανική εταιρεία Apple ανακοίνωσε Þτι µέσα σε διάστηµα 24 ωρών έχουν πραγµατοποιηθεί περισσÞτερεσ απÞ 2 εκατοµµύρια προπαραγγελίεσ του νέου τησ τηλεφώνου iPhone 5, ξεπερνώντασ έτσι το ρεκÞρ του 1 εκατοµµυρίου που είχε φτάσει το προηγούµενο µοντέλο τησ. Το iPhone 5 θα πωλείται στα καταστήµατα 9 χωρών (ΗΠΑ, Καναδάσ, Βρετανία, Γαλλία, Γερµανία, Αυστραλία και Ιαπωνία), Þµωσ Þσοι το επιθυµούσαν µπορούσαν να το παραγγείλουν µέσω ∆ιαδικτύου. «Η απάντηση των πελατών στο iPhone ήταν εκπληκτική», δήλωσε ο επικεφαλήσ πωλήσεων τησ Apple Φίλιπ Σίλερ. «Η ζήτηση ξεπέρασε την αρχική προσφορά και, αν και η πλειονÞτητα των παραγγε-

λιών θα παραδοθεί στουσ πελάτεσ στισ 21 Σεπτεµβρίου, πολλά θα παραδοθούν τον Οκτώβριο», διευκρίνισε η εταιρεία. Το iPhone 5 θα είναι διαθέσιµο την επÞµενη εβδοµάδα σε ακÞµη 20 χώρεσ και σε ακÞµη 100 ωσ το τέλοσ του χρÞνου. Tην ίδια ώρα σε ιστορικÞ υψηλÞ, κοντά στα 700 δολάρια, έκλεισαν οι µετοχέσ τησ Apple, καθώσ οι προπαραγγελίεσ για το νέο iPhone 5 ξεπέρασαν τα 2 εκατοµµύρια. Συγκεκριµένα, ο τίτλοσ τησ εταιρείασ εκτινάχθηκε τη ∆ευτέρα κατά 8,50 δολάρια για να κλείσει στα 699,78 δολάρια. ΑπÞ τισ αρχέσ τησ χρονιάσ έχει ενισχυθεί άνω του 70%. Το τελευταίο µοντέλο του iPhone, είναι µακρύτερο, πιο φωτεινÞ και υποστηρίζει το δίκτυο 4G.

™ÙËÓ ·ÓÙÂ›ıÂÛË Ë Samsung Να σηµειωθεί Þτι µετά την πετυχηµένη παρουσίαση του iPhone 5 και µε τα νούµερα των παραγγελιών να χτυπούν νέα ύψη, η Samsung αποφάσισε να µην κάτσει µε σταυρωµένα τα χέρια και να αφήσει την κύρια ανταγωνίστρια τησ εταιρεία να πάρει τα σκήπτρα ανενÞχλητη. Περνώντασ στην αντεπίθεση µε φανερά

προκλητική διάθεση η Νοτιοκορεάτικη εταιρία προώθησε µία ξαφνική διαφήµιση, µαζικά, συγκρίνοντασ το iPhone 5 µε το Galaxy S III. Η διαφηµιστικά επιθετική κίνηση αυτή προφανώσ και έχει βάσεισ στην πρÞσφατη δικαστική νίκη τησ εταιρίασ του Tim Cook ενάντια στη Samsung, αλλά βασίζεται καθαρά σε στοιχεία. Tα αποτελέσµατα θα τα δείξει η αγορά και η προτίµηση των καταναλωτών.

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Στα «γκρίζα» µονοπάτια τησ παραοικονοµίασ συνεχίζει να κινείται µεγάλοσ αριθµÞσ εργαζοµένων, αλλά και επιχειρήσεων στην πλειονÞτητα χωρών τησ πρώην Ανατολικήσ Ευρώπησ, µε την Βουλγαρία µάλιστα να κρατά τα «σκήπτρα» στη σχετική «µαύρη λίστα». Στο συµπέρασµα αυτÞ καταλήγει έρευνα τησ ΠαγκÞσµιασ Τράπεζασ, µε τίτλο «In Fromthe Shadow: Integrating Europe’s Informal Labor», που εξετάζει τισ διαστάσεισ του προβλήµατοσ τησ παραοικονοµίασ σε χώρεσ Þπωσ η Τσεχία, η Εσθονία, η Ουγγαρία, η Λιθουανία, η Λετονία, η Πολωνία, η Σλοβενία, η Σλοβακία και φυσικά και η Βουλγαρία, για την οποία αναφέρεται πωσ αντιπροσωπεύει ένα επίπεδο τησ τάξησ του 33% του βουλγαρικού ΑΕΠ απÞ το 2007 και έκτοτε δεν έχει υποχωρήσει καθÞλου. Στη δεύτερη χειρÞτερη θέση κατατάσσεται η Ρουµανία, µε ποσοστÞ 29% του ΑΕΠ, και ακολουθούν η Λιθουανία µε 28,5% και η Εσθονία µε 28,2% του ΑΕΠ τουσ. Στον αντίποδα, η Αυστρία έχει το χαµηλÞτερο ποσοστÞ «σκιώδουσ» οικονοµίασ, το οποίο ανέρχεται σε µÞλισ 7,6% του ΑΕΠ. Οι τάσεισ για λειτουργία τησ αγοράσ σε συνθήκεσ µη επίσηµεσ µάλιστα, προειδοποιεί η ΠαγκÞσµια Τράπεζα, είναι ιδιαίτερα διαδεδοµένεσ στην περιοχή, µε συνέπεια να υπονοµεύουν τισ προοπτικέσ για οικονοµική ανάπτυξη µακροπρÞθεσµα.

Υποχώρηση παρουσίασε το αµερικανικÞ δολάριο έναντι του ευρωπαϊκού νοµίσµατοσ τη περασµένη βδοµάδα. Συγκεκριµένα, την περασµένη Παρασκευή το δολάριο κατέγραψε χαµηλÞ τεσσάρων µηνών έναντι του ευρώ στα 1,3169 απÞ 1,29 που βρισκÞταν στισ αρχέσ τησ βδοµάδασ. Η ενίσχυση τησ διάθεσησ για τοποθετήσεισ υψηλού κινδύνου, κυρίωσ λÞγω τησ ανακοίνωσησ ιδιαιτέρωσ επεκτατικήσ νοµισµατικήσ πολιτικήσ απÞ τη Fed την περασµένη βδοµάδα, επηρέασε αρνητικά το δολάριο. Συγκεκριµένα, η Οµοσπονδιακή Τράπεζα των ΗΠΑ ανακοίνωσε Þτι θα προβαίνει σε αγορέσ ενυπÞθηκων στεγαστικών τίτλων (MBS)

ύψουσ $40 δισ. σε µηνιαία βάση, χωρίσ να καθορίσει ηµεροµηνία ολοκλήρωσησ του προγράµµατοσ. Η Οµοσπονδιακή Τράπεζα των ΗΠΑ ανέφερε Þτι θα εξετάζει σε κάθε σύσκεψη την καταλληλÞτητα συνέχισησ του προγράµµατοσ αγοράσ τίτλων, το ύψοσ των πράξεων αγοράσ και τη σύνθεση των τίτλων. ΒασικÞ κριτήριο για την εξέλιξη του προγράµµατοσ αγοράσ MBS αποτελεί η προοπτική τησ αγοράσ εργασίασ. H Fed ανέφερε Þτι εάν δεν σηµειωθεί σηµαντική βελτίωση τησ απασχÞλησησ στισ ΗΠΑ, το πρÞγραµµα θα συνεχίζεται, ενδεχοµένωσ να αποφασιστούν επιπλέον αγορέσ αξιογράφων και πιθανÞν να χρησιµοποιηθούν πρÞσθετα εργαλεία νοµισµατικήσ πολιτικήσ. Η Fed τÞνισε Þτι η άσκηση ιδιαιτέρωσ επεκτατικήσ νοµισµατικήσ πολιτικήσ θα είναι απαραίτητη για σηµαντικÞ χρονικÞ διάστηµα µέχρι η οικονοµική ανάπτυξη να ισχυροποιηθεί. Παράλληλα, σύµφωνα µε την

Οµοσπονδιακή Τράπεζα είναι ενδεχοµένωσ κατάλληλη η διατήρηση ιδιαιτέρωσ χαµηλού επιτοκίου αναφοράσ (τρέχον επίπεδο: 0%0,25%) τουλάχιστον έωσ τα µέσα του 2015 (έναντι τέλουσ 2014). Σε µια άλλη εξέλιξη, µικτή ήταν η εικÞνα των µακροοικονοµικών στοιχείων, που ανακοινώθηκαν την περασµένη βδοµάδα στισ ΗΠΑ. Η βιοµηχανική παραγωγή κατέγραψε τον Αύγουστο τη µεγαλύτερη υποχώρηση σε µηνιαία βάση απÞ το Μάρτιο του 2009 ενώ ο δείκτησ καταναλωτικήσ εµπιστοσύνησ του Παν/µίου του Michigan ανήλθε το Σεπτέµβριο σε υψηλÞ απÞ το Μάιο. Παράλληλα, οι λιανικέσ πωλήσεισ κατέγραψαν σε µηνιαία βάση τον Αύγουστο τη µεγαλύτερη αύξηση απÞ το Φεβρουάριο. O συνολικÞσ πληθωρισµÞσ στισ ΗΠΑ ενισχύθηκε σε ετήσια βάση τον Αύγουστο στο 1,7% (Ιούλιοσ: 1,4%) ενώ ο δοµικÞσ πληθωρισµÞσ µειώθηκε στο 1,9% (Ιούλιοσ: 2,1%).

A·ÁÔÚ¢ÙÈÎfi ÁÈ· ÙȘ Á˘ÌÓ¤˜ ʈÙÔÁڷʛ˜ Ù˘ ∫¤ÈÙ Η γαλλική δικαιοσύνη απαγÞρευσε οποιαδήποτε περαιτέρω παραχώρηση ή δηµοσίευση των γυµνÞστηθων φωτογραφιών τησ δούκισσασ του Κέµπριτζ Κέιτ, οι οποίεσ είχαν δηµοσιευτεί την περασµένη Παρασκευή απÞ το περιοδικÞ Closer, και διέταξε οι φωτογραφίεσ αυτέσ να επιστραφούν στο βρετανικÞ πριγκιπικÞ ζεύγοσ. Το δικαστήριο τησ Ναντέρ, προαστίου του Παρισιού, στο οποίο είχαν προσφύγει για την έκδοση ασφαλιστικών µέτρων ο πρίγκιπασ Ουίλιαµ και η σύζυγÞσ του Κάθριν Μίντλετον, απαγÞρευσε στην εκδοτική εταιρεία Mondadori “να παραχωρήσει ή να δηµοσιεύσει” περαιτέρω τισ γυµνÞστηθεσ φωτογραφίεσ τησ Κέιτ, οι οποίεσ τραβήχτηκαν κατά τη διάρκεια των διακοπών του ζεύγουσ στη Γαλλία.

Στην περίπτωση που τα δύο αυτά µέτρα δεν τηρηθούν θα επιβληθεί πρÞστιµο 10.000 ευρώ στην Mondadori, προειδοποίησε το δικαστήριο τησ Ναντέρ. ΩστÞσο το δικαστήριο δεν έδωσε εντολή στο Closer να αποσύρει τα αντίτυπα του τεύχουσ του Σεπτεµβρίου απÞ τα περίπτερα. Ούτε απαγÞρευσε στο περιοδικÞ να προβεί σε επανεκτύπωση του τεύχουσ, λέγοντασ Þτι δεν έχει τη δικαιοδοσία να το κάνει. Η απÞφαση αυτή δεν εµποδίζει τισ εφηµερίδεσ εκτÞσ Γαλλίασ να δηµοσιεύσουν τισ γυµνÞστηθεσ φωτογραφίεσ τησ Μίντλετον, οι οποίεσ πρωτοδηµοσιεύτηκαν την περασµένη εβδοµάδα στο Closer και έχουν έκτοτε δηµοσιευτεί σε µια ιρλανδέζικη ταµπλÞιντ και σε ένα ιταλικÞ περιοδικÞ.



∆ΙΕΘΝΗ | 7/19

π·ˆÓ›· Η κίνηση αυτή συνέπεσε (Þχι τυχαία, φυσικά) µε την επίσκεψη του Μπαράκ Οµπάµα στο Οχάιο, µια πολιτεία που βρίσκεται στην καρδιά του µεταποιητικού κλάδου (και των αυτοκινητοβιοµηχανιών, καθώσ εκεί βρίσκονται 54.200 θέσεισ εργασίασ του κλάδου), ενώ διεκδικείται µε αξιώσεισ τÞσο απÞ τουσ ∆ηµοκρατικούσ Þσο και απÞ τουσ Ρεπουµπλικάνουσ.

Σύµφωνα µε τισ ΗΠΑ, οι επιδοτήσεισ αυτέσ φτάνουν το ένα δισ. δολάρια την τριετία 2009-2011. Αξίζει να σηµειωθεί Þτι αυτή θα είναι η τρίτη προσφυγή των ΗΠΑ κατά τησ Κίνασ φέτοσ µε τισ δύο προηγούµενεσ να αφορούν τισ «σπάνιεσ γαίεσ» και τουσ δασµούσ που επιβάλλει το Πεκίνο στα αµερικανικά αυτοκίνητα.

∫ÔÚ˘ÊÒıËÎ·Ó ¯ı˜ ÔÈ ‰È·Ì·ÚÙ˘Ú›Â˜ ÙˆÓ ÎÈÓ¤˙ˆÓ ¤Ó·ÓÙÈ ÙˆÓ π·ÒÓˆÓ, Ë̤ڷ Ô˘ ÛËÌ·ÙÔ‰ÔÙÔ‡Û ÙËÓ Â¤ÙÂÈÔ Î·ÙÔ¯‹˜ ·fi ÙËÓ π·ˆÓ›· ÎÈÓÂ˙ÈÎÒÓ Â‰·ÊÒÓ ÙÔ 1931. ∂ηÙÔÓÙ¿‰Â˜ ‰È·‰Ëψ٤˜ Û˘ÁÎÂÓÙÚÒıËÎ·Ó ¤Íˆ ·fi ÙËÓ ÚÂۂ›· Ù˘ π·ˆÓ›·˜, ÂÙÒÓÙ·˜ ÌÔ˘Î¿ÏÈ· ÓÂÚÔ‡ ÛÙÔ ÎÙ›ÚÈÔ ÙÔ ÔÔ›Ô ‹Ù·Ó ˘fi ·ÛÊ˘ÎÙÈÎfi ·ÛÙ˘ÓÔÌÈÎfi ÎÏÔÈfi.

∏ ∫ˆÓÛÙ·ÓÙÈÓÔ‡ÔÏË ÙÔ Ó¤Ô ¡ÙÔ˘Ì¿È Ù˘ ∂˘ÚÒ˘; Η Κωνσταντινούπολη ελπίζει να προσελκύσει θέσεισ εργασίασ και πλούτο ωσ αποτέλεσµα τησ µετατροπήσ τησ σε παγκÞσµιο οικονοµικÞ κέντρο. ΠρÞκειται για ένα ευσεβή πÞθο την στιγµή που καθιερωµένα κέντρα Þπωσ το Λονδίνο αντιµετωπίζουν προβλήµατα κύρουσ και αβεβαιÞτητασ. ΩστÞσο, η πÞλη φαίνεται πωσ έχει πολύ δρÞµο ακÞµη να διανύσει για να πετύχει τον στÞχο τησ. Οι οικονοµικέσ επιδÞσεισ τησ Τουρκίασ είναι εντυπωσιακέσ τα τελευταία χρÞνια. Σύµφωνα µε στοιχεία που είδαν το φωσ τησ δηµοσιÞτητασ, η χώρα φαίνεται πωσ διαθέτει µια µεγάλη εγχώρια αγορά, νεαρÞ πληθυσµÞ που αγγίζει τα 75 εκατοµµύρια και πολύ δουλειά να κάνει σε Þτι αφορά την διείσδυση στον τοµέα των υπηρεσιών. Ùλα αυτά τα στοιχεία οδηγούν στην ανάπτυξη. Η κινητικÞτητα τησ τουρκικήσ κυβέρνησησ στον τοµέα τησ εξωτερικήσ πολιτικήσ έχουν υποβοηθήσει την δηµιουργία εδάφουσ προσφοράσ οικονοµικών υπηρεσιών απÞ τα Βαλκάνια µέχρι την Μέση Ανατολή. ΑκÞµη, το τραπεζικÞ σύστηµα τησ χώρασ είναι σταθερÞ, η εργασία φθηνή και οι αεροπορικέσ συνδέσεισ καλέσ. ΩστÞσο, αυτά τα στοιχεία δεν αρκούν για να γίνει ένα νέο Ντουµπάι. Το σηµαντικÞτερο είναι να θεσπιστεί ο ορθÞσ φορολογικÞσ νÞµοσ, το νοµικÞ υπÞβαθρο και κατάλληλο

κανονιστικÞ περιβάλλον που θα προσελκύσουν τουσ οικονοµικούσ παράγοντεσ και θα τουσ παράσχουν ικανÞ αγγλÞφωνο εργατικÞ δυναµικÞ.Η Τουρκία δεν διαθέτει ακÞµη αυτέσ τισ προϋποθέσεισ και γι’ αυτÞ βρίσκεται ακÞµη χαµηλά στουσ δείκτεσ που αναδεικνύουν τα οικονοµικά κέντρα. Ο δείκτησ τησ Z/Yen Group, για παράδειγµα, ο οποίοσ αξιολογεί 77 οικονοµικά κέντρα παγκοσµίωσ, κατατάσσει στην 61η θέση την Κωνσταντινούπολη. Η

πÞλη βρίσκεται πιο κάτω απÞ την Πράγα, την Βαρσοβία και τη Γλασκώβη. Το Ντουµπάι φιγουράρει στην 29η θέση. Εξ άλλου, στην έκθεση World Economic Forum Financial Development ο χρηµατοπιστωτικÞσ τοµέασ τησ Τουρκίασ είναι 43οσ στουσ 60. Η Τουρκία σίγουρα προσπαθεί. Το κυβερνητικÞ σχέδιο του 2009 για την προώθηση τησ Κωσταντινούπολησ ωσ οικονοµικÞ κέντρο

¶·Ú¿ ÙËÓ ÎÚ›ÛË Ë Ferrari Û¿ÂÈ Ù· ÎÔÓÙ¤Ú Σε επίπεδα ρεκÞρ ανήλθαν τÞσο οι πωλήσεισ Þσο και τα κέρδη τησ Ferrari για τουσ πρώτουσ έξι µήνεσ του 2012, χάρη στη διεύρυνση τησ γκάµασ των αυτοκινήτων τησ εταιρείασ. Τα καθαρά κέρδη τησ Ferrari ανήλθαν σε 100 εκατ. ευρώ, παρουσιάζοντασ αύξηση 10% σε σύγκριση µε το αντίστοιχο διάστηµα του περασµένου έτουσ, ενώ οι πωλήσεισ διαµορφώθηκαν σε 1,2 δισ. ευρώ, εµφανίζοντασ αύξηση 11,9%. Μάλιστα, σύµφωνα µε τισ προβλέψεισ του διευθύνοντοσ συµβούλου τησ αυτοκινητοβιοµηχανίασ, τα καλά αποτελέσµατα τησ εταιρείασ θα συνεχιστούν και το επÞµενο διάστηµα, αφού οι τάσεισ σε Þ,τι αφορά τισ πωλήσεισ και την κερδοφορία εξακολουθούν να είναι ισχυρέσ. Κατά τη διάρκεια του α’ εξαµήνου του 2012, πωλήθηκαν συνολικά 3.664 Ferrari. Συγκριτικά, το 2011 πωλήθηκαν 7.195 Ferrari, 9,5% περισσÞτερεσ απÞ το 2010. ΚαταλυτικÞ ρÞλο στην επιτυχία τησ αυτοκινητοβιοµηχανίασ έχει διαδραµατίσει η διεύρυνση τησ γκάµασ των µοντέλων που διαθέτει στην αγορά η εταιρεία τα τελευταία χρÞνια, η οποία είχε ωσ αποτέλεσµα την προσέλκυση περισσÞτερων πελατών.

Αξίζει να σηµειωθεί Þτι η Ferrari έχει ιδιαίτερα καλή πορεία στισ νέεσ αγορέσ τησ Ασίασ, ιδίωσ στην Κίνα, αλλά και στη Ρωσία, τη Μέση Ανατολή και τη ΝÞτια Αµερική. Είναι ενδεικτικÞ, Þπωσ υπογράµµισε ο διευθύνων σύµβουλοσ τησ εταιρείασ, Þτι απÞ τη συνολική παραγωγή τησ Ferrari, στην Ιταλία πωλείται µÞλισ ένα 7%, ενώ το 93% πηγαίνει σε άλλεσ αγορέσ.

περιλαµβάνει 71 σηµεία. Τα κυριÞτερα σηµεία περιλαµβάνουν τη δηµιουργία ειδικών δικαστηρίων για την επίλυση διαφορών αποτελεσµατικά, πράγµα που καθιστά ευκολÞτερο για τουσ αλλοδαπούσ να πάρουν βίζα εργασίασ, τη µείωση και την απλούστευση των φÞρων, καθώσ και τη βελτίωση τησ εκµάθησησ τησ αγγλικήσ γλώσσασ στα σχολεία και τα πανεπιστήµια. Σύµφωνα µε τον Mark Yeandle τησ Z/Yen, οι προσπάθειεσ θα φέρουν την χώρα στησ 50η θέση τησ κατάταξησ του χρÞνου, Þχι απαραίτητα επειδή οι στÞχοι θα επιτευχθούν αλλά κυρίωσ διÞτι το προφίλ τησ χώρασ βελτιώνεται σηµαντικά. ΩστÞσο, δεν είναι ακÞµη βέβαιο πωσ η Τουρκία είναι διατεθειµένη να πράξει τα πάντα για να γίνει νέο Ντουµπάι, το οποίο επιβάλει µηδενικÞ φÞρο εισοδήµατοσ στουσ ξένουσ την ώρα που ο τουρκικÞσ φÞροσ αγγίζει το 35%. Αδυναµίεσ επίσησ υπάρχουν στον τοµέα τησ ελευθερίασ τησ πληροφορίασ, των media και του διαδικτύου. ΩστÞσο, Þπωσ και µε την προσπάθεια για ένταξη στην Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση, φαίνεται πωσ µεγαλύτερη σηµασία έχει η προσπάθεια παρά η επίτευξη του στÞχου. Κάθε µέτρο που λαµβάνεται µε στÞχο να γίνει η Κωνσταντινούπολη πιο φιλÞξενη σε εταιρείεσ παγκοσµίωσ, είναι βέβαιο πωσ θα ωφελήσει συνολικά την οικονοµία τησ Τουρκίασ.

H Benetton „¿¯ÓÂÈ ÁÈ· ¿ÓÂÚÁÔ˘˜ Ó¤Ô˘˜ Τη λύση για την αντιµετώπιση τησ οικονοµικήσ κρίσησ αναζητεί, µε έναν πρωτÞτυπο τρÞπο, ο Αλεσάντρο Μπένετον, ο οποίοσ έκανε έκκληση σε περίπου 100 εκατοµµύρια άνεργουσ νέουσ να προτείνουν ιδέεσ. Ο 48χρονοσ πρÞεδροσ του Οµίλου Benetton εγκαινίασε την νέα διαφηµιστική εκστρατεία τησ οικογενειακήσ επιχείρησησ µε τίτλο “UNHATE” υπογραµµίζοντασ έτσι τη δεινή θέση στην οποία βρίσκονται οι άνεργοι κάτω των 30 ετών που προσπαθούν καθηµερινά να βρουν δουλειά. Η νέα παγκÞσµια διαφηµιστική εκστρατεία θα περιλαµβάνει αφίσεσ, µπλουζάκια, µια ταινία και έναν διαγωνισµÞ για την επιλογή 100 “ανέργων τησ χρονιάσ”, ο καθένασ απÞ τουσ οποίουσ θα κερδίσει 5.000 ευρώ για την ιδέα του. Οι διαγωνιζÞµενοι πρέπει να είναι µεταξύ 18 και 30 ετών και άνεργοι. Θα πρέπει να καταθέσουν την ιδέα τουσ στην ηλεκτρονική διεύθυνση και θα επιλεγούν µέσω διαδικτυακήσ δηµοσκÞπησησ απÞ τουσ υπÞλοιπουσ διαγωνιζÞµενουσ στην ίδια ιστοσελίδα. Ο διαγωνισµÞσ θα διαρκέσει ωσ τισ 14 Οκτωβρίου.



8/20 | ΑΓΟΡΑ

ª∆¡: •Â¤Ú·Û ÙÔ˘˜ 300.000 Û˘Ó‰ÚÔÌËÙ¤˜ Η ΜΤΝ ανακοίνωσε και επίσηµα την κατάκτηση ενÞσ ακÞµη σταθµού στην ιστορία τησ, ξεπερνώντασ το Þριο των 300.000 συνδροµητών. Στη δηµοσιογραφική διάσκεψη τησ εταιρίασ, µε κεντρικÞ µήνυµα «300.000 συνδροµητέσ ζητούν περισσÞτερα. ΑνταποκρινÞµαστε», ο CEO, κ. Pieter Verkade αναφέρθηκε στο πανηγυρικÞ γεγονÞσ τονίζοντασ Þτι η ΜΤΝ ανταποκρίνεται στην πρÞκληση µε µια σειρά απÞ κινήσεισ που αλλάζουν το χάρτη τησ αγοράσ τηλεπικοινωνιών στην Κύπρο. Παράλληλα, ενηµέρωσε σχετικά µε το νέα ευέλικτο πρÞγραµµα τησ εταιρίασ, το οποία παρέχει απÞλυτο έλεγχο του κÞστουσ και ανταποκρίνεται στην παρούσα οικονοµική συγκυρία. Με το νέο καρτοσυµβÞλαιο MTN Up2U 10+, ο συνδροµητήσ έχει τη δυνατÞτητα να ελέγξει και να αλλάξει δωρεάν το ποσÞ του ορίου του οποτεδήποτε επιθυµεί, προσαρµÞζοντασ το στισ δικέσ του ανάγκεσ.

∂‚‰ÔÌ¿‰· ∫·Ú‰È¿˜ ÌÂ Ì‹Ó˘Ì·: “Go Red for Women” Με στÞχο την ευαισθητοποίηση και ενηµέρωση των γυναικών για τα καρδιαγγειακά νοσήµατα που αποτελούν σε παγκÞσµιο επίπεδο την πρώτη αιτία θανάτου στο γυναικείο πληθυσµÞ διοργανώνεται και φέτοσ η εβδοµάδα Καρδιάσ απÞ τισ 24 µέχρι τισ 27 Σεπτεµβρίου. Το σύνθηµα τησ φετινήσ εβδοµάδασ είναι “Go Red for Women” και Þπωσ τονίστηκε σε διάσκεψη Τύπου µε αφορµή τισ εκδηλώσεισ, οι καρδιαγγειακέσ παθήσεισ σκοτώνουν περισσÞτερεσ γυναίκεσ παρά Þλεσ οι µορφέσ καρκίνου. ΩστÞσο µε τη σωστή διατροφή, την άσκηση, τη διατήρηση ιδανικού βάρουσ, και την αποφυγή του καπνίσµατοσ και του στρεσ περιορίζεται σε σηµαντικÞ βαθµÞ ο κίνδυνοσ. Στο πλαίσιο τησ εβδοµάδασ Καρδιάσ και τησ εκστρατείασ διαφώτισησ θα γίνεται έλεγχοσ τησ πίεσησ, τησ χοληστερÞλησ και του βάρουσ του κοινού. Παράλληλα θα γίνει ευαισθητοποίηση των νέων µε µουσική εκδήλωση στην οποία θα λάβει µέροσ ο τραγουδιστήσ Νίκοσ Γκάνοσ καθώσ και φιλανθρωπικÞ fashion show τησ Φάνησ Ξενοφώντοσ. Η Εβδοµάδα Καρδιάσ είναι θεσµÞσ που καθιερώθηκε τα τελευταία χρÞνια µε πρωτοβουλία του Καρδιολογικού Ιδρύµατοσ Κύπρου.

Costa Coffee: °Â˘ÛÙÈο Î·È ˘ÁÈÂÈÓ¿ Ùλοι οι άνθρωποι, κάποια στιγµή τησ ηµέρασ, έρχονται αντιµέτωποι µε το δίλληµα τησ επιλογήσ του φαγητού στη δουλειά ή σαν σνακ σε κάποια ενδιάµεση ώρα τησ ηµέρασ. Στην επιλογή αυτή τα Costa Coffee δίνουν λύση παρουσιάζοντασ το δικÞ τουσ ανανεωµένο και διευρυµένο µενού που ικανοποιεί µεγάλη γκάµα προτιµήσεων. Οι ποικιλία των εδεσµάτων που µπορείτε να βρείτε και να παραγγείλετε στα Costa Coffee µεγάλωσε. Στο ανανεωµένο µενού περιλαµβάνεται και µια σειρά εδεσµάτων υγιεινήσ διατροφήσ για να σασ δώσουν τη δυνατÞτητα τησ υγιεινήσ διατροφήσ και εκτÞσ σπιτιού, στο γραφείο ή στον ελεύθερο χρÞνο σασ. Για παράδειγµα ξεκινήστε το πρωινÞ σασ µε υγιεινÞ σνακ απÞ γιαούρτι και µέλι ή granola bar. Συνεχίστε το µεσηµέρι µε µια ελαφριά και υγιεινή επιλογή απÞ σάντουιτσ µε σαλάτα κοτÞπουλου ή σαλάτα µε µανούρι ή γευστικά flat breads. Μπορείτε να κάνετε τουσ δικούσ σασ γευστικούσ συνδυασµούσ εδεσµάτων και ροφηµάτων, πάντα φτιαγµένων µε υλικά άριστησ ποιÞτητασ, για να απολαµβάνετε ευχάριστα γεύµατα µε µοναδική φρεσκάδα και νοστιµιά.

Emirates: ¶ÚÔÛÊÔÚ¤˜ ÁÈ· ¡ÙÔ˘Ì¿È, ™·ÁÎ¿Ë Î·È ªÂÏ‚Ô‡ÚÓË Πολλοί είναι οι Κύπριοι που τουσ αρέσει και θέλουν να απολαµβάνουν µαγευτικούσ προορισµούσ. Για να ενθαρρύνει τουσ Κύπριουσ να επισκεφθούν το Ντουµπάι, τη ΜπανγκÞκ, τη Σαγκάη και τη Μελβούρνη και να ανακαλύψουν τισ συναρπαστικέσ αυτέσ πÞλεισ, η αεροπορική εταιρεία Emirates λανσάρει τέσσερισ ειδικέσ προσφορέσ. Τα εισιτήρια µετ’ επιστροφήσ για Ντουµπάι κοστίζουν 500 ευρώ, για ΜπανγκÞκ 713 ευρώ, για Σαγκάη 746 ευρώ και για Μελβούρνη 1,152 ευρώ. Οι ναύλοι ισχύουν για ταξίδια έωσ τισ 30 Νοεµβρίου 2012, µε ελάχιστη διαµονή 3 ηµέρεσ και κατ’ ανώτατο Þριο παραµονήσ ενÞσ µηνÞσ. Για κρατήσεισ θέσεων και περισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ, µπορείτε να επικοινωνήσετε µε το Γραφείο Πωλήσεων τησ Emirates, στο Τηλ.: 2281 7816 ή να επικοινωνήσετε µε τον ταξιδιωτικÞ πράκτορα που προτιµάτε. Αυτή η προσφορά είναι επίσησ διαθέσιµη µέσω επιγραµµικήσ (online) κράτησησ θέσησ στην ιστοσελίδα

µ‹Ì· – µ‹Ì· Ì·˙› ÎÂÚ‰›˙Ô˘Ì ÙËÓ ˙ˆ‹ Μέσα στα πλαίσια του ΠαγκÞσµιου Μήνα Ευαισθητοποίησησ για τον Καρκίνο του Μαστού, η Europa Donna Κύπρου ανακοίνωσε τισ εκδηλώσεισ του µήνα Οκτώβριου. Οι δραστηριÞτητεσ του συνδέσµου στοχεύουν στην ενηµέρωση και ευαισθητοποίηση του κοινού για τον Καρκίνο του Μαστού. Η βουλευτήσ και πρÞεδροσ του συνδέσµου κύρια Στέλλα Κυριακίδου στην οµίλα τησ ενηµέρωσε για τισ σηµερινέσ θέσεισ του συνδέσµου και τα πολλαπλά µέτωπα τησ µάχησ που δίνει ο σύνδεσµοσ κατά του καρκίνου του µαστού. Η EUROPA DONNA Κύπρου λειτούργει σε 3 Σπίτια, στη Λευκωσία, Λάρνακα, ΛεµεσÞ Þπου παρέχονται πληροφορίεσ, εκπαίδευση απÞ ειδικούσ, ενηµέρωση για φυσιοθεραπεία, διατροφή, πρÞληψη. Η κυρία Κυριακίδου ανάµεσα σε αλλά αναφέρθηκε για ακÞµα µια χρονιά στην απÞλυτη προτεραιÞτητα για δηµιουργία Εξειδικευµένου Κέντρου Μαστού στη Κύπρο. ∆Þθηκε ραντεβού για το Σάββατο 6 Οκτωβρίου στισ 5:00 το απÞγευµα για την καθιερωµένη πορεία.

∏ Medochemie Ù›ÌËÛ ÙÔÓ ¶·‡ÏÔ ∫ÔÓÙ›‰Ë Η Medochemie, χορηγÞσ του Παύλου Κοντίδη, διοργάνωσε εκδήλωση προσ τιµή του Αργυρού Ολυµπιονίκη του Λονδίνου. Κατά τη διάρκεια τησ εκδήλωσησ, στην οποία παρευρέθηκαν ο ∆ήµαρχοσ Λεµεσού Αντρέασ Χρίστου, βουλευτέσ και αξιωµατούχοι, ο ΕκτελεστικÞσ ΠρÞεδροσ τησ Medochemie ∆ρ Ανδρέασ Πίττασ, παρέδωσε τιµητική πλακέτα στον πρώτο Ολυµπιονίκη µασ και τον διαβεβαίωσε Þτι η εταιρεία θα συνεχίσει να τον στηρίζει σε κάθε του προσπάθεια. Ο αθλητισµÞσ, υπογράµµισε ο ∆ρ Πίττασ, εµπλουτίζει τη ζωή µε ιδανικά και αξίεσ και ευχήθηκε ο Παύλοσ Κοντίδησ να αποτελέσει πρÞτυπο για τουσ νέουσ.

H Marinetek ΤډÈÛ ÙÔ Û˘Ì‚fiÏ·ÈÔ ÁÈ· ÙËÓ ª·Ú›Ó· Η κοινοπραξία J&P-ATHENA-CYBARCO Μαρίνα Λεµεσού, ωσ η κύρια εργοληπτική εταιρεία τησ Μαρίνασ Λεµεσού έχει επιλέξει την Marinetek για να κατασκευάσει την νέα παγκοσµίου κλάσησ µαρίνα. Με την ολοκλήρωσή τησ, η δυναµικÞτητοσ 650 σκαφών Μαρίνα Λεµεσού θα µπορεί να φιλοξενεί Þλων των ειδών σκάφη, απÞ ιστιοφÞρα µέχρι γιÞτ πολυτελείασ, µε µήκοσ απÞ 6 ωσ 100 µέτρα. Η κατασκευή είναι προγραµµατισµένη να ολοκληρωθεί περί το τέλοσ Μαρτίου 2013 και θα περιλαµβάνει πλωτέσ αποβάθρεσ τησ Marinetek (Marinetek Premier Pontoons). Οι τσιµεντένιοι πλωτήρεσ θα κατασκευαστούν στο εργοστάσιο τησ Marinetek στην Κροατία, θα µεταφερθούν µε πλοίο στην ΛεµεσÞ και θα εγκατασταθούν τον ∆εκέµβρη 2012Ιανουάριο 2013.



ΕΛΛΑ∆Α | 9/21

µÏ¤ÂÈ Êˆ˜ ÛÙËÓ ¿ÎÚË ÙÔ˘ ÙÔ‡ÓÂÏ Ô ™ÙÔ˘ÚÓ¿Ú·˜ Την εκτίµηση Þτι µέχρι την Κυριακή θα έχει οριστικοποιηθεί το πακέτο των µέτρων εξέφρασε ο Έλληνασ υπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών Γιάννησ Στουρνάρασ που είχε χθεσ τρίωρη σύσκεψη µε τον πρωθυπουργÞ Αντώνη Σαµαρά στο Μέγαρο Μαξίµου. Ο κ. Στουρνάρασ, εξερχÞµενοσ του Μεγάρου Μαξίµου, δήλωσε πωσ υπάρχει συντονισµÞσ και διατύπωσε την εκτίµηση Þτι τα µέτρα θα “κλείσουν” έωσ την Κυριακή. «Ελπίζω, µέχρι την Κυριακή. ∆εν έχουµε πολύ χρÞνο, πάντωσ» ήταν η απάντηση του υπουργού σε σχετική ερώτηση. Μακριά απÞ τισ τηλεοπτικέσ κάµερεσ, Þταν ρωτήθηκε αν υπάρχει απÞσταση απÞ την τρÞικα, ο κ. Στουρνάρασ απάντησε: «Κλείνει, πάντωσ». Ο κ. Στουρνάρασ εξέφρασε την αισιοδοξία του για την επιτυχή κατάληξη των διαπραγµατεύσεων µε την τρÞικα που βρίσκονται σε πολύ κρίσιµο σηµείο. Εκτίµησε δε Þτι τα 2/3 τησ δηµοσιονοµικήσ διÞρθωσησ έχουν επιτευχθεί. «Οι διαπραγµατεύσεισ µε την τρÞικα είναι δύσκολεσ, Þπωσ και τα µέτρα είναι

δύσκολα. ∆ουλεύουµε µέρα-νύχτα και ελπίζουµε Þτι µέσα στον Οκτώβριο θα ληφθούν οι αποφάσεισ που θα µασ επιτρέψουν να ατενίσουµε το µέλλον µε αισιοδοξία, αφήνοντασ πίσω τα λάθη του παρελθÞντοσ», ανέφερε χαρακτηριστικά ο κ. Στουρνάρασ, επισηµαίνοντασ Þτι πλέον υπάρχει φωσ στην άκρη του τούνελ. «Ο προϋπολογισµÞσ φέτοσ θα κλείσει µέσα στα Þρια που έχει αποδεχθεί η τρÞικα, παρά τισ δύο εκλογικέσ αναµετρήσεισ», είπε ο κ. Στουρνάρασ και έκανε λÞγο για ανάγκη επιτάχυνσησ στουσ τοµείσ αποκρατικοποιήσεων, καταπολέµησησ τησ φοροδιαφυγήσ και γενικÞτερα προώθησησ των µεταρρυθµίσεων, τοµείσ Þπου παρατηρείται υστέρηση και η χώρα έχει µείνει πίσω. Ο υπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών επισήµανε Þτι η ύφεση για την ελληνική οικονοµία απÞ τÞτε που ξεκίνησε η κρίση µέχρι σήµερα είναι πρωτÞγνωρη και φθάνει σωρευτικά το 20% και αναµένεται να φθάσει σωρευτικά το 25% µέχρι και το 2014. Ανέφερε Þτι τα 2/3 τησ προσπάθειασ, αναφορικά µε την κάλυψη τησ δηµοσιονοµι-

κήσ διÞρθωσησ και ανταγωνιστικÞτητασ, έχουν καλυφθεί και αποµένει µÞνον το 1/3. Εάν επιτευχθεί η µείωση των δαπανών µετά και το πακέτο των 11,5 δισ. ευρώ, η Ελλάδα θα είναι µια απÞ τισ χώρεσ µε το µικρÞτερο ποσοστÞ δαπανών ωσ ποσοστÞ του ΑΕΠ, είπε ο κ. Στουρνάρασ και έκανε

λÞγο για συνέχιση τησ προσπάθειασ µείωσησ των δαπανών µέχρι το 2016. O κ. Στουρνάρασ, σε δηλώσεισ του σε δηµοσιογράφουσ εκτίµησε Þτι εξαιτίασ τησ ύφεσησ το πρωτογενέσ έλλειµµα θα ανέλθει στο 1,5% του ΑΕΠ το 2012, έναντι προηγούµενησ πρÞβλεψησ για 1%.

ŒÈ·Û·Ó ¿ÙÔ ÔÈ ÙÈ̤˜ ÙˆÓ ÛÈÙÈÒÓ ÛÙËÓ ∂ÏÏ¿‰· «Πάτωσαν» οι τιµέσ των ακινήτων στην Ελλάδα κατά τη διάρκεια του τελευταίου έτουσ, Þπωσ προκύπτει απÞ τον δείκτη Knight Frank Global House Price Index, τον οποίο καταρτίζει ο οµώνυµοσ βρετανικÞσ πολυεθνικÞσ οίκοσ real estate, που δραστηριοποιείται σε 47 χώρεσ διεθνώσ. Στην Ελλάδα και στισ κατοικίεσ η µείωση των τιµών το δεύτερο τρίµηνο του 2012 και σε δωδεκάµηνο χρονικÞ ορίζοντα είναι τησ τάξησ του 10,3%. Παράλληλα, σε εξάµηνη βάση (απÞ το τέταρτο τρίµηνο του 2011 έωσ και το δεύτε-

ρο του 2012) οι τιµέσ παρουσίασαν συρρίκνωση 5,6%, ενώ σε επίπεδο τριµήνου (πρώτο και δεύτερο τρίµηνο του τρέχοντοσ έτουσ) η µείωση είναι τησ τάξησ του 2,8%. Η Ελλάδα συγκρινÞµενη µε τα υπÞλοιπα κράτη-µέλη τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ενωσησ βρίσκεται µεταξύ των «πρωταθλητών» των πτωτικών τάσεων στισ τιµέσ των κατοικιών το τελευταίο δωδεκάµηνο. Έτσι µÞνο η Ιρλανδία και η Ουγγαρία εµφανίζουν µεγαλύτερα ποσοστά υποχώρησησ, που για την πρώτη φθάνουν το 14,4% και για τη δεύτε-

ρη το 11,2%. Αντιστοιχίεσ µε την Ελλάδα παρουσιάζουν η Ισπανία και η Πορτογαλία µε αξιοσηµείωτα ποσοστά συρρίκνωσησ των τιµών τουσ το τελευταίο δωδεκάµηνο, ενώ σε κάθε περίπτωση η Ελλάδα, παρÞλο που βρίσκεται σε χειρÞτερη οικονοµική κατάσταση απÞ την Ιρλανδία, εν τούτοισ οι τιµέσ των κατοικιών τησ, αν και αξιοσηµείωτα µειωµένεσ, δεν µπορούν να χαρακτηριστούν καταβαραθρωµένεσ. Στη Γηραιά Ήπειρο µεγάλη καθίζηση γνω-

ρίζουν οι τιµέσ των κατοικιών στη ∆ανία, στην Ολλανδία, στην Κύπρο και στη Σλοβενία, ενώ διεθνώσ η µείωση είναι σηµαντική και στην περιοχή τησ Κίνασ. Για τισ υπÞλοιπεσ χώρεσ τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ενωσησ, η Γερµανία κινείται αυξητικά στο δωδεκάµηνο µε 6,7%, η Αυστρία µε 11%, η Ρωσία µε 9,9%, η Γαλλία µε 2,1% και το Βέλγιο µε 2,8% κ.ά. Άξια µνείασ η γειτονική Τουρκία, η οποία σε ετήσια βάση καταγράφει αύξηση των τιµών στισ κατοικίεσ κατά 10,5%.

√‡Ù ¤Ú¢ӷ, Ô‡Ù ηÈÓÔÙÔÌ›·… Ô‡Ù ·Ó¿Ù˘ÍË «Κάτω απÞ τη βάση» βαθµολογείται η Ελλάδα στον τοµέα τησ έρευνασ και τησ καινοτοµίασ που αποτελεί την «ατµοµηχανή» τησ οικονοµικήσ ανάπτυξησ. Σύµφωνα µε έκθεση που δηµοσιοποίησε ο ΟργανισµÞσ Οικονοµικήσ Συνεργασίασ και Ανάπτυξησ (ΟΟΣΑ), στην Ελλάδα οι δηµÞσιεσ δαπάνεσ για την έρευνα εξακολουθούν να βρίσκονται σε ιδιαίτερα χαµηλά επίπεδα, αντιστοιχούν µÞλισ στο 0,60% επί του ΑΕΠ µε αποτέλεσµα να θεωρείται ανέφικτοσ ο εθνικÞσ στÞχοσ για αύξησή τουσ στο 1,5% επί του

ΑΕΠ µέχρι το 2020. Την ίδια ώρα, οι ιδιωτικέσ δαπάνεσ για την έρευνα είναι σχεδÞν µηδενικέσ, κατατάσσοντασ την Ελλάδα στην προτελευταία θέση µεταξύ των χωρών - µελών του ΟΟΣΑ. Σε Þ,τι αφορά τισ καινοτÞµεσ ευρεσιτεχνίεσ απÞ πανεπιστήµια ή εταιρείεσ οι επιδÞσεισ είναι ακÞµη χαµηλÞτερεσ µε την Ελλάδα να καταλαµβάνει την τελευταία θέση. ΕιδικÞτερα, η έκθεση του ΟΟΣΑ καταδεικνύει Þτι η Ελλάδα παρουσιάζει σηµαντική υστέρηση στον τοµέα τησ έρευνασ µε τισ επι-

∞‡ÍËÛË 48% ÙˆÓ ÂÏÏËÓÈÎÒÓ ÂÍ·ÁˆÁÒÓ ÚÔ˜ ∆Ô˘ÚΛ· Σηµαντική αύξηση τησ τάξεωσ του 48,41% παρουσιάζουν οι ελληνικέσ εξαγωγέσ προσ την Τουρκία κατά το πρώτο εξάµηνο του τρέχοντοσ έτουσ, δείχνοντασ τη δυναµική και τισ προοπτικέσ που έχει το διµερέσ εµπÞριο µε τη γειτονική χώρα. Ένα απÞ τα πλέον αξιοσηµείωτα στοιχεία που έχουν παρατηρηθεί είναι Þτι το εισ βάροσ τησ Ελλάδασ εµπορικÞ έλλειµµα, συνολικού ύψουσ 99,9 εκατ. ευρώ στο α’ εξάµηνο του 2010, µετατράπηκε σε πλεÞνασµα 751,2 εκατ. ευρώ στο πρώτο εξάµηνο 2012. Ανάλογησ σηµασίασ είναι επίσησ και το γεγονÞσ Þτι απÞ το 2009 (σύγκριση πρώτων εξαµήνων) οι εξαγωγέσ τησ χώρασ προσ την Τουρκία υπερτριπλασιάστηκαν. Σύµφωνα µε την ανάλυση τησ έκθεσησ του γραφείου ΟΕΥ, οι ελληνικέσ εξαγωγέσ αφορούν (Þπωσ και στο παρελθÞν) κατά το µεγαλύτερο µέροσ τουσ (69,99%) εξαγωγέσ καυσίµων. ΕκτÞσ πετρελαιοειδών, η αύξηση των εξαγωγών ανήλθε σε 13,96%, µε την παρουσία των τροφίµων και γενικά προϊÞντων ζωικήσ και φυτικήσ προέλευσησ να εξακολουθεί να έχει φθίνουσα πορεία, ενώ δυναµική παρουσία έχουν οι πρώτεσ ύλεσ και τα βιοµηχανικά προϊÞντα. Εκτίναξη παρατηρείται και στην κατηγορία µη ταξινοµηµένων ειδών, η οποία, Þπωσ εξηγείται, οφείλεται στην αύξηση των εξαγωγών χρυσού. ΑντιστρÞφωσ, µείωση κατά 17% παρουσίασαν οι εξαγωγέσ τησ Τουρκίασ προσ την Ελλάδα, οι οποίεσ ανήλθαν σε 488,8 εκατ. ευρώ έναντι 595,9 εκατ. ευρώ το πρώτο εξάµηνο του 2011.

δÞσεισ τησ, σε Þλα τα κριτήρια αξιολÞγησησ, να «πέφτουν» κάτω απÞ τον µέσο Þρο. Μάλιστα, οι προβλέψεισ είναι δυσοίωνεσ για το µέλλον, αφού εκτιµάται Þτι η οικονοµική κρίση θα οδηγήσει σε περαιτέρω συρρίκνωση τÞσο των δηµοσίων Þσο και των ιδιωτικών επενδύσεων για έρευνα και ανάπτυξη στη χώρα. Στο πλαίσιο αυτÞ, ο ΟΟΣΑ προχωρεί σε συστάσεισ προσ την Ελλάδα, σηµειώνοντασ Þτι θα πρέπει άµεσα να ληφθούν µέτρα προκειµένου να βελτιωθεί το θεσµικÞ πλαίσιο για

την έρευνα και την καινοτοµία και να µπει «φρένο» στη διαρκώσ επιδεινούµενη «διαρροή εγκεφάλων». «Το τωρινÞ ερευνητικÞ σύστηµα τησ Ελλάδασ είναι αδύναµο και σε µεγάλο βαθµÞ αποσυνδεδεµένο απÞ την εγχώρια οικονοµία», αναφέρεται στην έκθεση του Οργανισµού και προστίθεται πωσ «η επαρκήσ αξιοποίηση νέων προϊÞντων απÞ καινοτÞµουσ επιχειρηµατίεσ, µέσα απÞ τη συνεργασία εγχώριων πανεπιστηµίων και εταιρειών, πρέπει εφεξήσ να αποτελέσει βασική προτεραιÞτητα τησ Ελλάδασ».

ª¤ÚÎÂÏ: «ª·ÙÒÓÂÈ Ë Î·Ú‰È¿ ÌÔ˘» ÁÈ· ÙÔ˘˜ ŒÏÏËÓ˜ «Ματώνει η καρδιά µου» επανέλαβε η καγκελάριοσ τησ Γερµανίασ, κυρία Άγκελα Μέρκελ, αναφερÞµενη στουσ Έλληνεσ, οι οποίοι υποβάλλονται στισ µεγαλύτερεσ θυσίεσ. Επισήµανε, ωστÞσο, για µία ακÞµη φορά, Þτι θα έπρεπε και οι Έλληνεσ, οι οποίοι έχουν αφήσει τη χώρα τουσ, να σκεφτούν ποια συνεισφορά θα µπορούσαν να έχουν. «Βοηθούµε την Ελλάδα. Θέλουµε η Ελλάδα να πετύχει, διÞτι αυτÞ είναι καλύτερο για Þλουσ µασ. ΑπÞ την άλλη πλευρά, είναι σηµαντικÞ, αυτέσ οι δύσκολεσ µεταρρυθµίσεισ να εφαρµοστούν. Είναι ένασ δύσκολοσ δρÞµοσ για την Ελλάδα, αλλά δεν βοηθά το να αντιστέκεσαι σε µέτρα, τα οποία ούτωσ ή άλλωσ πρέπει να ληφθούν», δήλωσε η Μέρκελ και τÞνισε Þτι η Γερµανία επιθυµεί την παραµονή τήσ Ελλάδασ στην ευρωζώνη. «Τώρα, το θέµα είναι να εφαρµοστούν τα συµφωνηθέντα», επισήµανε, ενώ έκανε λÞγο για τεράστιεσ περικοπέσ, οι οποίεσ έχουν ήδη γίνει και ανέφερε Þτι «δεν σηµαίνουν, Þλεσ οι µεταρρυθµίσεισ, περαιτέρω επιβάρυνση». Σε Þ,τι αφορά sτο µέλλον τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ένωσησ, η καγκελάριοσ έκανε λÞγο για την ανάγκη ισχυρÞτερησ πολιτικήσ ένωσησ και µεγαλύτερησ λογοδοσίασ των κρατών- µελών.

September 19 - 25, 2012


Gold down, beats crude Gold fell on Tuesday but was outperforming tumbling crude oil and grain markets as economic uncertainty related to last week’s monetary stimulus unleashed by U.S. Federal Reserve boosted the metal’s safe-haven appeal. The metal, a traditional inflation hedge, was down less than 1% even though oil plunged more than $5 in a few minutes on Monday afternoon in a rapid selloff and grain prices led by soybean futures slid. “Despite large-scale commodities liquidation, gold is supported in the high $1,700 range in a flight to quality,” said Zachary Oxman, portfolio manager at futures brokerage TrendMax. Spot gold fell 0.7% to $1,757.69 an ounce, having risen by 2% last week. The metal has gained around 10% since late August on hopes that central bank stimulus around the world would revive a stagnant global economy. Bullion largely traded flat before crude oil’s sudden drop. A third round of bullion-friendly Fed bond-buying known as quantitative easing (QE), underpinned the metal - a traditional inflation hedge - to a fourth straight week of gain last week. Suki Cooper, precious metals analyst at Barclays Capital, said that a pick-up in physical demand in China and India and record-high holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products suggest the metal is likely to hold onto its recent strength Analysts said the U.S. central bank’s unprecedented move to tie in monetary stimulus to economic conditions should benefit gold. Among other precious metals, silver fell 1.7% at $34.01 an ounce. Platinum dropped 1.9% to $1,662.74 an ounce, while palladium tumbled 3.3% to $674.20.

Shares ease after Fed-led rally Global shares retreated from four-month highs on Tuesday while gold and copper eased, as markets paused from sharp gains inspired by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive stimulus and turned instead to concerns about the growth slowdown in China. “Investors are really in defensive mode today, and probably will stay that way until Thursday, when we get the fresh read on manufacturing out from China,” said Juliana Roadley, a market analyst at Commonwealth Securities, referring to the HSBC flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI). Amid slackening demand from top customer China, Australia on Tuesday revised down minerals and energy export revenues by 9% to A$190 bln ($200 bln) in the year to June 30, 2013. It also cut its revenue forecasts for iron ore by a fifth. Chinese shares were pulled down by commodities-related stocks following steep overnight losses in physical markets. The Nikkei stock average gave up early gains to edge down 0.1%, caught between a supportive weaker yen and concerns over firms having large exposure to China, where anti-Japan protests were escalating as tensions mounted over a territorial dispute between Asia’s two biggest economies. Masayuki Doshida, senior market analyst at Rakuten Securities, said sentiment was also underpinned by expectations that the Bank of Japan will follow the Fed with its own stimulus measures, to stem the yen’s appreciation after the Fed’s move last week. The yen traded at 78.62 to the dollar, off a one-week low of 78.93 touched on Monday. The Fed’s move undermined the dollar and lifted the yen to a sevenmonth high of 77.13 on Thursday.

Brent rises towards $114 Brent crude rose to near $114 a barrel on Tuesday, after steep losses in the previous session, but gains were limited as investors weighed the impact of the Fed’s stimulus push on oil demand and eyed China’s next step to boost its economy. Brent crude fell more than $5 a barrel late on Monday in a wave of late, highvolume selling that many traders said appeared to have stemmed from an automated computer trading programme. Brent, which had settled at $116.66 a barrel on Friday in its seventh straight session of gains, sank on Monday from $115.20 to $111.60 later in the day as trading volumes shot up. U.S. crude slipped from $98.65 a barrel to below $95. The wild price fluctuations were not fundamentally driven, traders said, and were probably triggered by lower-than-normal trading volumes due to a Jewish holiday, a drop in U.S. equities and the euro, and speculation about the possible release of U.S. strategic stocks. The White House said late on Monday it was still considering a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve but declined to provide more details.

FOREX COMMENTARY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The yen was under pressure on Tuesday on speculation that the Bank of Japan might loosen policy while increased risk appetite after the Federal Reserve’s easing last week helped keep the dollar near a seven-month low against a basket of currencies. That left the euro close to four-month highs both against the yen and the dollar, though some traders think the single currency’s rally since late July may be running out of steam soon. The dollar traded at 78.57 yen, after having risen as high as 78.93 yen on Monday, way above a sevenmonth low of 77.13 yen hit just last Thursday, driven by buying by speculative accounts such as hedge funds, traders said. The Federal Reserve’s announcement last week of a new asset-buying programme has spurred speculation that the Bank of Japan might look into policy easing to counter the effect of the U.S. stimulus. Also supporting the dollar versus the yen was a rise in U.S. bond yields after the Fed’s action. The 10-year U.S. bond yield stood near a four-month high of 1.89 percent hit on Friday. The dollar/yen has traditionally had a high correlation with U.S. bond yields, partly based on the perception that higher U.S. yields should attract more dollar-buying by Japanese investors. The yen also might be undermined slightly by concerns about anti-Japan protests in China, Japan’s biggest trading partner, over a territorial dispute. Its impact could grow if Chinese boycotts of Japanese products become large enough to dent Tokyo’s exports to China and worsen Japan’s trade balance, traders said. For now, the dollar/yen is capped at the bottom of the cloud at 78.72 on the daily Ichimoku chart, though a break there could open the way for a test of the Aug. 20 high of 79.66 yen, some market participants said. Against the dollar, the euro fetched $1.3103, down slightly from late U.S. levels but still not far from a 4 1/2-month high of $1.3173 hit on Monday. The euro has rallied some 9 percent from a twoyear low of $1.2040 in July when investors were deeply worried that the currency bloc might be heading for a break-up as Spanish and Italian borrowing costs were soaring. For now, the euro is supported by optimism that the European Central Bank’s new bond buying programme could help Madrid survive its debt crisis, though some are concerned that Spanish bond yields have risen over the past few days. Increased risk appetite after the Fed promised to pump $40 billion a month into the economy is also helping the euro and other growth-linked currencies. The dollar index stood at 78.95, near a seven-month low of 78.601 hit on Friday. The Australian dollar traded at $1.0475, off a six-month high of $1.0625 set on Friday, pressured by worries that slower growth in China would put the brakes on Australia’s mining boom. Disclaimer: The commentary appearing on this page is for indication purposes only and Eurivex does not take any responsibility for investment action taken. Nothing in this report should be considered to constitute investment advice. It is not intended, and should not be considered, as an offer, invitation, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any of the financial instruments described herein. Trading on leverage is very risky and may lead to losses.

September 19 - 25, 2012


India Breaks Out (of paralysis) panacea that some envision. But these are enormous symbolic moves that show that Congress has finally put economics ahead of populist politics. On the short term economic front this means ratings agencies will not downgrade India and the rupee will likely strengthen on inflows and better sentiment (not to mention a QE3 boost). Indian equities will get a bump (they were already up 4.5% in USD terms on Friday). Certain cyclical sectors, like industrials, that investors have been avoiding in an uncertain macro environment should benefit the most. The RBI cut reserve requirements today with a very positive statement on these reforms. But it refrained from cutting interest rates— inflation remains a threat. Dissenting members of the UPA coalition as well as the major opposition party, the BJP, have already come out in force against these reforms. Mamata Banerjee, head of one of Congress’ key coalition partners, the Trinamool Congress, joined massive street protests in West Bengal calling these measures anti-poor. Banerjee plans to pull Trinamool ministers from the central government if her demands to repeal the reforms within 72 hours are not met. But it seems she will not pull Trinamool’s support for the UPA altogether. This, and the fact that Congress can probably get more support from other left-wing allies, suggests that these reforms will not be ruined by forced early elections. But India’s turnaround is by no means guaranteed. The largest issue is the paralyzed bureaucracy. Bureaucrats are petrified of taking action after years of intense corruption scandals which have put some in jail and essentially removed the politi-

Marcuard’s Market update by GaveKal Research In one fell swoop, India seems to have turned its economy in the right direction. For months we have lamented the government paralysis as output growth deteriorated, and we were waiting for a crisis to force movement on long-delayed reforms. It seems that the economic and political pressures finally shot the ruling Congress party into motion, with plans to lift protections in the retail sector and trim subsidies in fuel. Now two major questions remain. First, will these reforms stick, or will the Congress-led UPA coalition reverse them in the face of strong opposition—as in the recent past? Second, will the UPA be able to thaw the frozen bureaucracy, and thereby facilitate the return of vital investment? On the first question, we are cautiously optimistic that the economic deterioration has been scary enough to force Congress to stick to its guns, and that the opposition will not force early elections. The answer to the second question remains to be seen. Late last week, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh announced a mammoth 14% diesel price hike and a decision to allow majority foreign ownership in multi-brand retail establishments (think Wal-Mart) among other reforms. These measures are not directly significant for the macro economy. Even such a large diesel price hike will not mean the government can meet its budget deficit reduction targets for the year and the multi-brand retail FDI law will probably not be the logistics and agricultural

Singapore recession risk looms after exports shrink Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) in August fell more than expected, raising the prospect of the city-state entering into a recession as exports to the European Union plunged. The trade-dependent Southeast Asian city-state said non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell 10.6% from a year earlier, hurt by a 10.4% drop in electronics and a 28.7% plummet in shipments to the EU, its largest market. On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, NODX shrank 9.1% after contracting 3.6% in July. Electronics exports contracted 14.8% in August from July after seasonal adjustments, while non-electronics NODX shrank 7.1%, trade agency International Enterprises Singapore said in a separate email. “Although our baseline case is not for a quarter-on-quarter contraction, the chances are not minute. There is perhaps a 40:60 chance of contraction,” said Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp head of treasury research Selena Ling, whose estimate was the closest among the 13 economists polled by Reuters. The median estimate in a Reuters poll had been for non-oil domestic exports to fall 4.0% year-on-year and 1.8% month-onmonth. Singapore’s economy shrank less than anticipated in the second quarter, thanks to a surge in pharmaceutical production in June, GDP data showed last month. But the government warned of continued uncertainties and downside risks and narrowed its 2012 growth forecast to 1.5 to 2.5% from an earlier 1-3%. Economists expect the Southeast Asian city-state’s gross domestic product to grow 2.4% this year, down from a median

estimate of 3.0% three months earlier, the central bank’s latest quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters showed. Singapore’s weaker-than-expected trade data follows signs of a slowdown elsewhere in the region, with a survey on Monday showing New Zealand’s services sector slowed for a third consecutive month in August to a two-year low. South Korea said on Monday retail sales fell for a third straight month in August. MONETARY POLICY Looking ahead, economists said the weak August trade data reinforced the widely held perception that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), the country’s central bank, will likely ease monetary policy slightly in October by slowing the local dollar’s rate of appreciation. “With these kinds of numbers, growth momentum appearing to slow down and inflation less of an issue, MAS could look at a gentler slope of appreciation,” said CIMB regional economist Song Seng Wun. Singapore sets monetary policy by allowing its dollar to rise or fall against a undisclosed basket of currencies. When it issued its last policy statement in April, MAS said it would allow a modest and gradual rise of the Singapore dollar with a slightly sleeper slope of appreciation. OCBC’s Ling warned, however, that MAS along with its regional peers would be cautious about easing policy too rapidly given the risk of asset appreciation fuelled by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest round of quantitative easing. “Asian central banks are worried about the QE side of things and what it may do to asset inflation,” she said.

cal cover from bureaucratic decisions. The result is an acute slowdown in major bureaucratic decisions like environmental clearances and land allocations and therefore a major slowdown in investment. With the scandal over alleged corruption in coal block allocations still raging, there is no guarantee that the new political mood will be enough to assuage bureaucrats’ fears. In sum, Congress has finally made a very decisive move in the right direction for India’s economy. If both these reforms and the UPA government remain intact, the short-term outlook for India will be much better than most had predicted. This should provide some legs for the current rally in equities as valuations are cheap overall, and many of the leaders of the recent rally are fairly defensive in nature, leaving room for catch-up rally in certain cyclicals still to come. But none of this addresses India’s underlying macro impediments. Difficulties allocating land, an extremely rigid labor market, an essentially bankrupt power sector and a frozen bureaucracy are the major barriers India must overcome to achieve high speed economic development. These do not have to be solved immediately, but neither can they be ignored indefinitely. Disclaimer: This information may not be construed as advice and in particular not as investment, legal or tax advice. Depending on your particular circumstances you must obtain advice from your respective professional advisors. Investment involves risk. The value of investments may go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee for future performance. Investments in foreign currencies are subject to exchange rate fluctuations. Marcuard Cyprus Ltd is regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySec) under License no. 131/11.




EUROPEAN Belarussian Ruble British Pound * Bulgarian Lev Czech Koruna Danish Krone Estonian Kroon Euro * Georgian Lari Hungarian Forint Latvian Lats Lithuanian Litas Maltese Pound * Moldavan Leu Norwegian Krone Polish Zloty Romanian Leu Russian Rouble Swedish Krona Swiss Franc Ukrainian Hryvnia


8380 1.6249 1.4973 18.9246 5.7064 11.9806 1.3061 1.6435 217.35 0.53215 2.6434 0.3287 12.3195 5.7131 3.1527 3.4458 30.9658 6.5643 0.9273 8.1052


1.0419 0.9755 7.7523 54.03 78.6 1118.3 1.211 1.2267


0.3745 6.0840 12068.90 3.8993 0.7082 0.2802 1502.00 0.3838 3.6407 3.7500 8.2542 3.6729


0.7843 149.85 1.8033

AMERICAS & PACIFIC Australian Dollar * Canadian Dollar Hong Kong Dollar Indian Rupee Japanese Yen Korean Won New Zeland Dollar * Singapore Dollar MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA

The Financial Markets Interest Rates Base Rates

LIBOR rates


0-0,25% 0.50% 0.75% 0-0,1% 0-0,25%

Swap Rates















0.22 0.52 0.07 0.14 0.01

0.30 0.55 0.11 0.16 0.03

0.38 0.65 0.16 0.19 0.05

0.66 0.89 0.40 0.33 0.16

0.99 1.36 0.69 0.54 0.36


0.38 0.80 0.49 0.26 0.07

0.46 0.85 0.63 0.26 0.11

0.62 0.95 0.82 0.29 0.19

0.84 1.10 1.04 0.34 0.29

1.31 1.46 1.43 0.50 0.56

1.84 1.98 1.87 0.80 0.92

Exchange Rates Major Cross Rates CCY1\CCY2 USD EUR GBP CHF JPY

Opening Rates

100 1 USD 1 EUR 1 GBP 1 CHF JPY 1.3064 0.7655

















1.1798 84.76


Weekly movement of USD































1.6253 1.3064 78.63 0.9277

Last Week %Change 1.6003 1.2764 78.22 0.9454

Bahrain Dinar Egyptian Pound Iranian Rial Israeli Shekel Jordanian Dinar Kuwait Dinar Lebanese Pound Omani Rial Qatar Rial Saudi Arabian Riyal South African Rand U.A.E. Dirham

-1.56 -2.35 +0.52 -1.87

Azerbaijanian Manat Kazakhstan Tenge Turkish Lira


* USD per National Currency

September 19 - 25, 2012


Zuckerberg dangles Facebook search and mobile, shares rally l

Admits disappointment with stock price, will not build its own smartphone

Facebook Inc CEO Mark Zuckerberg soothed investors in his first major public appearance last week since the No. 1 social network’s rocky May IPO, breathing life into its struggling shares after hinting at new growth areas from mobile to search. The 28-year-old co-founder looked confident in a gray T-shirt and jeans, asking Wall Street to be patient as the company developed new products, addressing issues such as employee morale, and dashing rumours Facebook may build a smartphone. Facebook became the first U.S. company to debut on stock markets with a value of more than $100 bln. But it has since lost more than half of its capitalisation as investors fret about slowing growth and the company’s challenges making money as users shift from PCs to mobile devices. Zuckerberg admitted to disappointment about his company’s crumbling share price, but argued Wall Street has yet to grasp the full potential of its fledgling mobile business. His comments helped drive Facebook shares up more than 3% to above $20, building on a 3.3% gain in regular trade on Tuesday. The stock is still well off its $38 debut price. Speaking at the TechCrunch Disrupt conference in San Francisco, Zuckerberg highlighted Facebook’s progress in mobile over the past six months and the company’s room for

growth. Facebook’s recently released mobile ads are already delivering better results for advertisers than the traditional “display” ads that appear on the right-hand side of the social networking service on PCs, he said. While declining to offer details, Zuckerberg hinted that the company was halfway through a cycle to “retool” and offer new

advertising products. He also said he believed search could be a ripe area of growth for Facebook and was working to offer a competitive search product — comments that likely interested executives at Google Inc, one of Facebook’s fiercest competitors. Adding to the pressure on the stock is the ongoing expiration of “lock-up” selling restrictions for shares held by employees, insiders and early investors: More than 1 bln additional Facebook shares are set to become available for trading by year’s end. Zuckerberg, who recently committed not to sell his own shares for at least 12 months, conceded that the company’s downward-spiraling stock was not helping staff morale, but stressed he still thought it was a good time to join the company and “double down.” “This company is about vision and changing the world and I don’t know who would be better prepared to lead it than the guy who had that vision and built the company to a profitable multibillion dollar company before his 30th birthday,” said Dave Crowder of GSV Asset Management, which owns Facebook shares. Zuckerberg also acknowledged that he had erred years ago by using a programming language that slowed the development of Facebook apps for Apple and Android phones.

RBS in forced sale of Direct Line l

Must sell insurer under state aid rules; analysts value at £2.5-3.5 bln

State-backed Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) is to press ahead with the forced sale of its Direct Line insurance division in what could be the biggest listing on the London Stock Exchange for more than a year. RBS, which is majority-owned by the government after a bailout during the 2008 financial crisis, was told to sell Britain’s biggest motor insurer by European Union regulators as a condition for taking state aid. Analysts say that the IPO announced by RBS last Friday could value Direct Line at between 2.5 bln pounds and 3.5 bln, but achieving that could prove difficult in tough market conditions that have already scuppered a stock market flotation by Talanx, Germany’s third-biggest insurer. Talanx abandoned its Frankfurt IPO last week, saying that investors were demanding too big a discount on the company’s valuation relative to what its investment banking advisers had foreseen. On a conference call with reporters, Direct Line Chief Executive Paul Geddes said that Talanx’s abandoned IPO would have little effect on his company’s prospects. “Eighty percent of

that business is reinsurance and life (insurance), so it’s a very different market,” he said. Under the EU directive, RBS must sell more than 50 percent of Direct Line by the end of 2013 and the rest of its holding a year later. RBS will market the offer to potential investors over the next few weeks and will be under political pressure to secure a good deal. UK taxpayers are sitting on a loss of more than 20 bln pounds after Britain pumped 45 bln pounds into the bank to secure its future. RBS is planning a three-tranche sale - one this year, one next year and a final sale in 2014. The bank said it planned to sell at least 25% of Direct Line’s shares in the first tranche. A source close to the deal said that the valuation could come in anywhere between 1.5 bln pounds and 4 bln and that RBS could drop the IPO in favour of an outright disposal if it is at the bottom end of the range. The business’s tangible net asset value stood at 2.3 bln pounds after September’s dividend payout. Oriel Securities analysts said the shares could be offered at 170 pence each. Based upon the 1.5 bln shares that currently

comprise Direct Line’s equity capital, that would value the business at 2.58 bln pounds. Regulatory uncertainty provides a further challenge for Direct Line’s flotation. Britain’s Office of Fair Trading (OFT) will decide next month whether to call for a full anti-trust probe of the motor insurance market because of concerns that a lack of competition is pushing up premiums for customers.

Russia launches $5 bln Sberbank sale Russia launched the long-awaited sale of a $5 bln stake in Sberbank on Monday, reducing its controlling interest in Europe’s third-largest bank by equity value behind HSBC and Santander and reviving its stalled privatisation programme. The sale of a 7.6% stake in Sberbank has been held up for more than a year by weak markets, but last week’s announcement of a new round of credit easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve lifted sentiment and opened the window to a placement. Russian stocks rallied by 8% on Friday, propelling Sberbank shares to their highest since April and putting the state in a position to sell into strength. “This was the best imaginable day of the past 15 months to take the decision to go to the market,” Chief Executive German Gref told Reuters in a telephone interview. Gref said he hoped asset managers in China, Singapore and Hong Kong, among others, would be interested in the three-day offering, which may be closed early if there are

enough orders. The sale will help clear a stock overhang that has held back the recent share performance of the former Soviet state savings bank, and capped Russian market valuations at a big discount to other emerging markets. It will boost the liquidity of Russia’s most actively traded stock, widely viewed by investors as a proxy for economic growth running at 4%, and by one estimate the world’s best-performing large company stock over the past decade after Apple Inc, maker of the iPhone. AMBITIOUS PLANS While delivering a welcome revenue windfall, the sale also sends a signal to markets that President Vladimir Putin, who returned to the Kremlin in May, is willing to press ahead with privatisations after a lengthy pause. Russia has set out ambitious plans to reduce the 50% share of the state in the economy to boost efficiency and growth but, despite running a budget surplus thanks to high oil prices, has proved unwilling to sell state

assets on the cheap. The Sberbank deal will also set the tone for an IPO planned by Russia’s No.2 mobile phone company MegaFon, which could happen within weeks and which analysts estimate could raise $3 bln. Sberbank said it would price the sale of 1.7 bln shares at between 91 roubles ($2.99) apiece and the market price at the time of closing the books on the sale. The minimum price represents a discount of 6% to last Friday’s close of 97.05 roubles. Although the bank’s stock fell 1.5% on Monday, the relatively tight pricing buoyed market confidence that the deal would meet strong interest. While the government had eyed a sale price north of 100 roubles per share, holding out could have proved risky as the Russian economy is losing momentum as demand for exports of oil and gas to Europe is sapped by the euro zone debt crisis. Founded 170 years ago, Sberbank became a Soviet state monopoly and, in a legacy of the command economy, still controls 46% of Russian household deposits. Sberbank has snapped up cheap foreign banking assets most recently buying Turkey’s Denizbank for $3.6 bln. Following criticism from analysts it was taking its eye off the ball in Russia, management has said it is not pursuing further takeover opportunities abroad.

September 19 - 25, 2012


September 19 - 25, 2012


Political demands could “make or break” BAE-EADS merger l

Greggs hopes British Army will march on savouries l Partners NAAFI in supply deal,

to trial in Germany base The British army could soon be marching on a stomach filled by Greggs if a trial for the country’s biggest baker to supply savouries like Cornish pasties and sausage rolls works out, offering the company important new income in the downturn. Greggs, based in Newcastle, said it had launched a trial with the Navy, Army and Air Force Institutes (NAAFI), the armed forces caterer, that will see it supply frozen savouries to the British military base in Gutersloh, Germany. NAAFI currently serves Britain’s military in Afghanistan, Ascension, Brunei, Germany, Gibraltar, The Falkland Islands and Northern Ireland, as well as on board Royal Navy ships. Greggs, which sells sandwiches, savouries, bread, cakes and pastries to over 6 mln customers a week, currently trades from about 1,600 UK stores, more than McDonald’s. But with Britain in recession it is seeking other ways of making money and has had success wholesaling frozen savouries through the Iceland chain of supermarkets, as well as opening franchise stores in motorway service stations and branching out into cafes. Greggs Chief Executive Ken McMeikan, a former Tesco and Sainsbury executive and Royal Navy veteran of the 1982 Falklands War, said if the 12week trial was deemed a success the concept could be rolled out across the globe. Shares in Greggs closed Friday at 500 pence, valuing the business at 506 mln pounds.

Small UK firms stymied as banks refuse to lend Confidence amongst small British companies fell over the summer, as weak consumer demand and a lack of credit continued to hamper firms’ growth prospects, the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) said. The FSB’s “Voice of Small Business” index, based on a survey of nearly 2,600 companies, dropped almost six points to -4.5 in the third quarter, with confidence declining in ten out of twelve British regions. The business services sector and small manufacturers continued to perform well, but those firms that rely on discretionary spending were less confident, the FSB said. However, confidence remains still stronger than in the fourth quarter of 2011, when the escalation of the euro zone debt crisis pushed Britain back into recession. “The message is clear though — businesses want to grow and invest but they need a helping hand to do so,” John Walker, the FSB’s National Chairman, said. The survey showed that businesses that want to grow remain troubled by a lack of finance, with the number of refused loan applications rising, the FSB said. Finance minister George Osborne has launched a number of initiatives to get credit flowing through the economy, though he has rejected calls to loosen his flagship austerity programme, aimed at erasing the country’s huge budget deficit. The government has also announced the creation of a state-backed business bank though details are still unclear. Britain’s economy has contracted for three consecutive quarters since it plunged back into recession at the end of 2011. With the economy slowly moving out of recession, economists forecast growth of 0.6% in the third quarter in a Reuters poll. However, a strong recovery is still seen as elusive, keeping the pressure on the government to support the economy.

Red lines over interference, French stake; Germany seen anxious to protect Airbus jobs

Talks to create a new European defence giant enter a perilous political phase this week, with national concerns growing over security and jobs while BAE Systems and EADS look ready to scrap their $45 bln merger if governments make too many demands. After the companies laid out basic proposals to create the world’s biggest arms company twinned with jetmaker Airbus, it is the turn of British, French, German and Spanish governments to put forward demands in exchange for giving their backing. Each is likely to have a shopping list of concerns ranging from German fears over jobs to French soul-searching over the loss of state influence or Britain’s need to ensure the creation of a European supergroup does not dent BAE’s strong U.S. sales. While careful to avoid putting public pressure on nations that own the keys to any deal — and that will also be its major customers — defence industry sources have ruled out opening the door to protracted negotiations or a cascade of concessions. A source familiar with the talks said the companies were ready to listen to European governments, but stressed that their responses could “make or break” the deal. EADS and BAE declined to comment on the political factors involved in completing the merger. However, EADS said the companies would reserve the last word on the deal for themselves after hearing governments’ views. “We are in good, advanced discussions with the governments concerned,” a senior spokesman said. “When we have their concerns and requests on the table, we and BAE will jointly look at them and determine whether they can be reasonably accommodated within the governance structure we have in mind.” ARMS SPENDING CUTS German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that her government was studying the merger. The project to build a company 60% owned by FrancoGerman-Spanish EADS and 40% by BAE would make the world’s largest arms firm ahead of Lockheed Martin and grant Europe an all-round aerospace player rivalling Boeing. The aim is to cushion the company against cuts in defence spending and prepare for future global competition from Asia. Under British stock market rules, the two companies have until October 10 to announce whether they plan to go ahead. The task of securing political backing is delicate after details of the plan leaked last week and a certain amount of bluff is expected on all sides, but a source close to BAE said “discussions are progressive and ongoing”. In particular, negotiators must juggle BAE’s red lines over French government involvement with France’s determination to maintain a significant stake in a flagship industrial group. EADS is tightly controlled by a shareholder pact linking the French state, which owns 15%, with Germany’s Daimler and French media firm Lagardere. “BAE has told EADS it will walk away if it cannot remove the voting block rights and have a normalised governance structure and normal shareholder rights,” a source close to BAE said. “SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP” Weekend reports highlighted the risks to BAE’s U.S. defence sales if France’s role encroaches on the commercial dividends of Britain’s “special relationship” with the United States, where EADS recently clashed with a defence lobby. Britain’s former First Sea Lord, Admiral Lord West, warned that the BAE-EADS deal would cost jobs and threaten Britain’s security if it went ahead, according to

The Times newspaper. In France, the key question is whether President Francois Hollande is ready to accept the full privatisation of EADS after a previous Socialist government started the process by marrying state Aerospatiale to Lagardere in the late 1990s. The prospect has triggered debate within the new Socialist government which has so far displayed a handson approach to industry by intervening to halt factory closures and save jobs. If the plan is accepted, the French government and Daimler are expected to maintain a diluted stake of 9% in the new group with broadly the same rights as other shareholders. EADS has clashed with Germany in the past over defence priorities but Berlin’s most immediate priority is likely to be securing guarantees over Airbus jobs following a recent row. Financial Times Deutschland reported that EADS had offered unspecified guarantees to win German backing, but some analysts say German officials are playing for more time over the deal. Doubts have been raised over whether a “special” antitakeover share to be issued to Britain, France and Germany would be legal given the large civil content in the group. GOLDEN SHARES EU rules only allow national security assets to be governed by golden shares, but EADS appears confident it has found a watertight system after doing the groundwork during previous inconclusive efforts to shake off its rigid shareholder pact. Besides the special share, no investor will be allowed to control over 15%, a majority of the board must be European residents and key sovereign technology such as the British and French nuclear deterrents will be ring fenced. “It is a binary discussion: either it goes along these lines, or the deal fails,” said a source close to the deal. Other prickly questions yet to be resolved include precise board composition and the location of company headquarters. EADS Chief Executive Tom Enders has upset Germany by moving central operations from Paris and Munich to Toulouse, next to Airbus. But even supporters of the move acknowledge it is doubtful that France’s aerospace capital would fit a global defence company with strong reliance on U.S. defence markets. Enders and BAE counterpart Ian King, meanwhile, are talking to investors to try to shore up confidence in the plan. EADS shares recovered more than 2% on Monday after a 15% three-day drop when the proposal surfaced last week, but many investors question the logic of the deal. “Given the obstacles to real consolidation of the European industrial base, considerable synergies are unlikely,” said RBC Capital markets analyst Rob Stallard.

September 19 - 25, 2012


Debt holders hope EU, IMF extend aid l IIF says solution must tackle long-term issues; Greece can fulfill its commitment Greece should get cheaper rates on its 130 bln euro aid deal and at least two more years from the EU and IMF to repay them, the chief negotiator of the country’s private sector creditors said on Tuesday. But better terms could only come after Athens delivers on commitments it has made to fiscal reform, Charles Dallara, managing director of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), told a news conference while on a trip to Beijing. “Once that has been done, and I am confident it will be done, Europe and the IMF should move quickly to extend the adjustment period for at least two years and provide the modest additional financial support for that extension to be effective,” Dallara said. “Only some 15-20 bln euros is needed. This can easily be realised in part by reducing interest rates on the loans which Europe and the IMF made to Greece on more concessional terms,” he continued, adding that responses to the Greek debt crisis placed too much emphasis on short-term austerity and not enough on improving the country’s longer-term competitiveness.

Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, leading a country in its fifth year of recession at a time of rising discontent at home, earlier said he wants two more years to implement economic reforms tied to the aid package to soften their impact. Athens, where Europe’s debt crisis began nearly three years ago, has been boosted by a decision to give Portugal - also the recipient of an international loan package - more time to meet fiscal targets as economic recession saps Lisbon’s ability to deliver. Under the revised targets, Portugal has until 2014 to bring its budget deficit down to the EU limit of 3%, ministers said in a statement on Friday. Previously, the 78 bln euro package required a deficit of 3% in 2013. Inspectors from the so-called troika of the IMF, European Commission and the European Central Bank are evaluating Greek progress on agreed targets before releasing the next, 32 bln euro tranche from the giant aid package. Cash-strapped Greece must come up with nearly 12 bln euros of extra cuts for the next two years to get the money, and it has fallen behind in reforms. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said last week that

lenders may agree to some sort of extension. Austrian Finance Minister Maria Fekter said in a newspaper interview released on Sunday that Athens would get “a few weeks” more time to meet terms of its international rescue. The idea of having a year or two was dead and no extra money was on the table, she said. Greece’s second loan deal envisages Athens returning to international markets by 2015, but with two consecutive parliamentary elections in May and June after political parties struggled to form a coalition, the country lost ground on its reform agenda. Deepening recession has also made the debt targets less attainable.

Privatisation drive revs up to sway troika l Trouble ahead for OPAP? Greece kickstarted a stalled privatisation drive to appease international lenders, saying it would start with the sale of 29% of one of its most profitable companies - gambling monopoly OPAP - this week. The state has a 34% stake in OPAP, one of Europe’s biggest listed gambling firms. Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’s government in the past has hinted it was eyeing an autumn sale of OPAP as a “quick win” on the privatisation front to show lenders it is serious about its commitment to reform. Nevertheless, Samaras’s government remains bogged down in difficult talks on a package of spending cuts worth nearly 12 bln euros for the next two years, juggling conflicting demands from the troika to toughen up the package while coalition allies want it watered down to spare the poor. Earlier last week, a Reuters report on the Greek agency ODDY - which is beset by red tape and employs dozens despite its supposed abolition - highlighted Greece’s inability to streamline its public sector despite legislating cuts to shut or merge entities. At the same time, Samaras faces the added challenge of persuading his Socialist and leftist allies to back the package of reviled measures ranging from cutting spending on healthcare to slashing wages and pensions. Meanwhile, following an inquiry into OPAP’s taxation regime, the Ministry of Finance announced that the state has

been in talks with the EU Competition Authority for “a long time” on the games tax issue and that talks are ongoing. Press reports said that the government will proceed with the privatisation of the firm irrespective of the negotiations, but argue that the decision of the Advocate General of the European Court of Justice over Stanleybet’s appeal on OPAP’s monopoly will determine the pace of negotiations between the Greek state and the European Commission

As far as the taxation issue is concerned, the Commission will request from the Greek government to align the taxation scheme applied to OPAP’s existing games to that imposed on VLTs and internet gaming (30% tax rate on gross wins) as provided by the latest gaming law. OPAP does not pay any state commission based on the turnover or the gross gaming revenue of its existing games as the company has paid EUR 322 mln for the acquisition of its license for 2001-2020 and EUR 375 mln (plus 5% on gross gaming revenue) for the extension of its exclusive right for the period 2021-2030. If this is the case, a 30% gaming tax will be applied on OPAP’s lottery and sports betting games. Historically, OPAP returns nearly two thirds of total wages to its players, which implies that a 30% gaming tax is equivalent to about 9% of the sales of existing games (KINO, Stoixima, Joker, etc.). “We forecast that current games (excluding VLTs) will generate revenues of EUR 3,43 bln in 2013 and 3,26 bln in 2014, which means that the negative impact on FY13e and FY14e EBITDA is about EUR 350 mln and 330 mln, respectively or 60% against our current estimates,” explained Dimitris Birbos, analyst at the Investment Bank of Greece, a Laiki Group subsidiary. “The negative impact from the application of this gaming tax is nearly EUR 280 mln both for 2013 (-67% against our current forecast) and 2014 (-78% against our current forecast). OPAP’s management could mitigate the impact of a new gaming tax by curtailing distribution costs, donations and sponsorship.

Corporate tax to rise The Finance Ministry plans to increase the corporate tax rate for large enterprises to 30% from the current 20%, while at the same time abolish or reduce withholding tax on dividends which currently stands at 25%, according to the daily Kathimerini Alternatively, the newspaper report added that the Finance Ministry is considering reducing the corporate tax rate to 15% retaining the withholding tax on dividends. “The final plan will be included in the new comprehensive draft tax law which is expected to be submitted to Parliament for vote in the near future. The aim of these amendments is to reduce the total tax burden on

corporate profits, thereby stopping the flight of companies from Greece to countries with a lower corporate tax rate,” explained Vassilis Roumantzis, analyst at the Investment Bank of Greece, a Laiki Group subsidiary. Another potential positive outcome of the abolition of withholding tax on dividends would be to avoid a further taxation when dividends are distributed from subsidiaries to the parent, the analyst added. On the other hand, under the new tax regime foreign investors who are not subject to withholding tax on dividends would face a higher tax rate, which might be negative for stock valuations depending on the marginal investor.

Jumbo to open more stores, Romania Toys, stationer and clothing retailer Jumbo announced in a briefing for institutional investors that the current strategy of selective store expansion and product enrichment is bearing fruit and helping the company to profit further in the medium term. The company, with a market cap of 560 mln euros, plans to open three new stores in Greece by June 2013, raising the total to 50 outlets, including two that opened in July and August. Jumbo also plans to open a new store in Bulgaria by June 2013, up

from the current seven, and one new store in Cyprus by June 2014, in addition to the three operating at present. According to the company, the optimum number of stores for Greece and Cyprus is 59, while in Bulgaria the eighth store will conclude the first stage of its expansion there. Jumbo is also preparing to enter the Romanian market by 2014 where it plans to open eight stores at a rate of 2-3 stores per year, but is considering a more aggressive and selective strategy. The online store is also expected to start operating by June 2013.

Yield falls further on €1.3 bln 3-month T-bills Greece sold 1.3 bln euros of threemonth T-bills on Tuesday, with the yield easing from a previous auction in August, the country’s debt agency said. The sale’s bid-cover ratio was 1.98, up from 1.36 in the August 14 auction. Greece paid a yield of 4.31%, 12 basis points less than in the previous auction. The sum raised includes 300 mln euros in noncompetitive bids. Monthly T-bill sales are Greece’s sole source of market funding. The bulk of T-bill issues are traditionally taken up by Greek banks, meaning that funding costs do not fully reflect strains from the country’s debt crisis.

September 19 - 25, 2012







Book Value

Shares ('000) Aριθµός µετοχών

Value euro Aξία EUR

Cap. ('000) Kεφαλ. EUR

Per Share euro Λογιστική αξία

Price to


Book Value 2010 Times EUR ('000) Tιµή προς Κέρδη µετά λογιστ. αξ. φορολ.



1 795 141 3 411 086 579 914 74 080 246 214 460 547 80 966

1.00 0.10 0.43 0.35 0.35 0.17 0.35

486 483 143 266 115 983 20 150 16 004 9 211 5 668 796 764

1.25 0.00035 0.78 0.76 0.52 0.24 1.68 0.75

0.22 120.00 0.26 0.36 0.13 0.08 0.04 17.30



114 252 71 936 182 725 175 000 282 213 13 416 38 750 8 200 45 000 35 000 122 804 48 006

0.34 0.43 0.17 0.34 0.27 0.35 0.17 1.03 0.17 0.35 0.10 0.35

114 320 31 652 29 419 23 450 15 240 7 110 5 076 4 756 4 275 3 710 2 947 2 400 244 355

1.76 3.07 0.28 0.45 0.26 4.69 0.30 3.16 0.09 1.91 0.05 0.53 1.38

0.13 0.14 0.57 0.30 0.20 0.11 0.43 0.18 1.06 0.06 0.51 0.10 0.32



36 572 98 861 158 660 110 358 99 925 39 109 15 438 141 692 50 000 10 070 108 163 288 141 1 950 24 379 208 700 5 140 137 611 3 059 92 079 14 973 80 999 13 506 16 000 348 333 31 344 34 000 4 805 100 000 22 343 7 967 30 978 17 985 20 400 62 446 8 571 101 683 43 211 78 415 14 900 61 056 46 355 424 435 9 660 87 500 22 100 382 440 3 590 297 915 33 000 36 529 66 520 32 500 12 212 20 700 9 788 75 000

0.35 0.26 0.09 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.17 0.43 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.08 0.35 0.17 0.87 0.43 0.43 1.73 0.85 0.43 0.09 0.35 0.62 0.09 0.09 0.29 0.87 0.17 0.34 0.35 0.43 0.31 0.43 0.20 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.17 0.14 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.17 1.73 0.03 0.17 0.43 1.00 0.69 0.34 0.03 0.05 $ 0.10

6 217 17 795 3 173 9 932 4 996 25 812 2 933 7 085 3 000 201 4 327 2 881 137 7 314 6 261 1 336 20 642 2 814 27 624 2 096 7 290 810 5 600 6 967 627 4 760 1 778 12 000 447 956 12 391 1 799 12 036 4 371 1 971 6 101 8 210 1 568 149 15 875 464 33 955 773 57 750 1 547 22 946 5 421 2 979 1 650 2 192 5 322 7 475 3 175 414 196 75 000 483 540

0.88 0.49 0.02 0.49 0.02 0.73 0.80 0.49 0.12 0.42 0.39 0.07 -3.03 0.65 0.09 0.27 2.20 6.13 1.84 0.47 0.28 0.29 0.67 0.04 0.20 0.32 2.55 0.97 -0.05 0.09 3.55 0.41 0.68 0.36 0.41 0.80 0.64 0.10 0.02 0.50 0.004 0.20 0.18 1.31 0.40 0.01 3.35 0.04 0.12 0.48 1.59 2.36 0.41 0.04 0.11 0.20 0.66

0.19 0.36 1.11 0.18 2.27 0.90 0.24 0.10 0.50 0.05 0.10 0.14 -0.02 0.46 0.33 0.96 0.07 0.15 0.16 0.30 0.32 0.20 0.52 0.52 0.10 0.43 0.15 0.12 -0.43 1.28 0.11 0.25 0.87 0.20 0.56 0.08 0.30 0.20 0.43 0.52 2.50 0.41 0.44 0.50 0.17 4.88 0.45 0.25 0.42 0.13 0.05 0.10 0.64 0.50 0.18 5.08 0.57

306 000 87 100 8 889 3 274 -17 397 -10 243 3 328 380 951

2010 8 848 1 310 4 108 6 309 -47 25 987 -1 903 2 574 -1 453 456 -8 419 71 37 841



1 767 4 363 -5 724 -1 339 -11 422 4 108 257 -6 512 1 542 -622 -3 641 -7 007 440 -157 1 211 -1 031 -6 432 568 13 270 1 157 2 183 -380 575 -5 602 -980 1 048 614 -1 668 -844 -738 -3 358 -760 969 -2 094 -501 -3 469 -1 746 -4 952 -594 5 981 -9 573 -9 238 313 8 617 11 -5 231 362 14 344 131 -9 983 1 165 -181 -25 -43 -330 -55 167

6M 2011 EUR ('000) Kέρδη 2011

6M 2012 EUR ('000) Kέρδη 2012

6M '11 161 000 -202 400 -36 618 2 904 -4 278 -28 751 1 062 -107 081

6M '12 -214 000 -1 308 800 14 898 2 697 -5 955 -26 641 -5 040 -1 542 841

6M '11 3 010 1 038 448

6M '12 1 535 1 906 386

-27 2 069 -1 021 258 -727 -414 -398 -383 3 853

-2 638 3 665 -570 -919 -448 -691 -1 747 -981 -502

6M '11 840 1 121 -332 -2 979 -5 391 2 240 417 -3 664 -493 -189 -2 493 -2 739 -522 -6 805 -234 -3 125 -463 1 448 1 239 940 -210 215 -2 944 -111 -161 1 028 3 742 -940 -89 -6 279 323 276 -1 396 -173 -4 233 36 -761 -191 1 121 -419 -8 696 -426 4 281 -631 -2 464 -191 -347 234 1 094 -3 875 -787 -151 -16 -22 2 280 -34 463

6M '12 111 887 -325 -3 979 -16 719 1 457 455 -2 768 -1 487 -184 -3 871 -2 043 -665 -6 -186 -282 -2 970 -1 653 -1 778 43 597 -208 -684 -3 487 -75 -1 223 -210 -1 012 -1 393 -160 -2 674 -233 -1 095 -840 -196 -4 478 -964 -302 -140 888 6 -8 419 -311 2 536 -171 -2 165 -396 -372 -1 427 -1 506 -4 416 -1 074 -132 -133 -13 1 661 -70 184


2011 EUR ('000) Κέρδη µετά φορολ.

P/E ratio 2011

Earnings Per

Dividend Per

Dividend Yield

Share 2011 Cents



Share 2011 Cents

2011 -1 371 000 -3 650 380 -100 658 3 585 -6 894 -82 674 -8 648 -5 216 669

n/a n/a n/a 5.62 n/a n/a n/a 0.14

2011 6 674 -1 174 4 122 245 -1 734 2 133 -1 600 -947 -1 333 759 -2 667 -1 302 3 176

2011 373 2 334 -2 594 -2 121 -6 400 2 306 570 -3 519 -7 900 -375 -3 942 -7 654 -4 006 -65 -3 921 -513 -4 630 -4 127 5 693 1 104 1 604 -526 -257 -212 -15 562 1 608 5 130 -2 198 -110 -3 948 -804 100 -1 392 -438 -6 299 1 345 -3 185 -281 2 076 -2 192 -16 880 -1 314 10 753 -868 -6 352 73 151 546 964 -19 100 1 577 -689 11 -37 2 753 -93 340

3.99 n/a 7.14 95.71 n/a 3.33 n/a n/a n/a 4.89 n/a n/a 10.79

2012 High Low EUR EUR Aνώτατο Kατώτατο

Last Close EUR Kλείσιµο

Price 31/12/2011 EUR Tιµή 31/12/2011

31/12/2011 Ποσ. Μετ. 31/12/2011

% Change


385.85 134.85 365.45

84.53 34.56 116.68

121.46 48.87 227.21

295.94 104.60 196.84

-58.96 -53.28 15.43

377.70 0.76 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.08 0.04 0.12

75.13 0.16 0.03 0.17 0.24 0.05 0.02 0.07

111.83 0.27 0.04 0.20 0.27 0.07 0.02 0.07

286.83 0.61 0.30 0.36 0.27 0.05 0.04 0.12

-61.01 -55.57 -85.86 -44.60 1.12 27.45 -45.95 -42.15

Cents -76.37 -107.02 -17.36 4.84 -2.80 -17.95 -10.68





Cents 5.84 -1.63 2.26 0.14 -0.61 15.90 -4.13 -11.55 -2.96 2.17 -2.17 -2.71

Cents 5.80

% 24.89

704.24 0.34 0.57 0.20 0.17 0.07 1.10 0.18 0.65 0.10 0.12 0.05 0.07

573.37 0.23 0.35 0.16 0.12 0.05 0.28 0.13 0.57 0.09 0.08 0.02 0.05

578.99 0.23 0.44 0.16 0.13 0.05 0.53 0.13 0.58 0.10 0.11 0.02 0.05

656.6 0.32 0.35 0.18 0.167 0.06 1.00 0.18 0.63 0.10 0.08 0.05 0.06

-11.82 -26.96 27.54 -10.06 -19.76 -14.29 -47.00 -27.22 -7.94 -3.06 27.71 -48.94 -16.67

Cents 1.02 2.36 -1.63 -1.92 -6.40 5.90 3.69 -2.48 -15.80 -3.72 -3.64 -2.66 -205.44 -0.27 -1.88 -9.98 -3.36 -134.91 6.18 7.37 1.98 -3.89 -1.61 -0.68 -45.77 33.47 5.13 -9.84 -1.38 -12.74 -4.47 0.49 -2.23 -5.11 -6.19 3.11 -4.06 -1.89 3.40 -4.73 -3.98 -13.60 12.29 -3.93 -1.66 2.03 0.05 1.65 2.64 -28.71 4.85 -5.64 0.05 -0.38 3.67







7.00 1.20

10.61 6.32







671.49 0.17 0.18 0.02 0.09 0.05 0.66 0.19 0.05 0.06 0.02 0.04 0.01 0.07 0.30 0.03 0.26 0.15 0.92 0.30 0.14 0.09 0.06 0.35 0.02 0.02 0.14 0.37 0.12 0.02 0.12 0.40 0.10 0.59 0.07 0.23 0.06 0.19 0.02 0.01 0.26 0.01 0.08 0.08 0.66 0.07 0.06 1.51 0.01 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.23 0.26 0.02 0.02 1.00

738.87 0.17 0.16 0.02 0.10 0.05 0.83 0.21 0.07 0.06 0.02 0.05 0.01 0.09 0.31 0.05 0.32 0.18 3.20 0.32 0.17 0.09 0.06 0.38 0.02 0.03 0.15 0.48 0.12 0.03 0.14 0.70 0.09 0.65 0.09 0.23 0.08 0.19 0.04 0.01 0.21 0.01 0.11 0.08 0.52 0.06 0.06 1.62 0.01 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.23 0.26 0.02 0.02 1.00

-9.12 0.00 12.50 0.00 -10.00 0.00 -20.48 -9.52 -28.57 0.00 0.00 -20.00 0.00 -22.22 -3.23 -40.00 -18.75 -16.67 -71.25 -6.25 -17.65 0.00 0.00 -7.89 0.00 -33.33 -6.67 -22.92 0.00 -33.33 -14.29 -42.86 11.11 -9.23 -22.22 0.00 -25.00 0.00 -50.00 0.00 23.81 0.00 -27.27 0.00 26.92 16.67 0.00 -6.79 0.00 -37.50 -33.33 -20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

September 19 - 25, 2012








Book Value

Shares ('000) Aριθµός µετοχών

Value euro Aξία EUR

Cap. ('000) Kεφαλ. EUR

Per Share euro Λογιστική αξία

Price to


2010 Book Value Times EUR ('000) Tιµή προς Κέρδη µετά λογιστ. αξ. φορολ.



0.0379 0.2721 0.0048 0.2741 0.7502 0.0174 0.0674 0.1633 0.0734 0.0320 1.0430 2.1427 0.6125 0.2500

-47.23 -55.90 316.67 -63.52 -61.34 -42.53 33.53 -69.38 -45.50 -37.50 -23.30 -6.66 -2.04 16.00

2010 58 430 56 147 49 385 44 494 200 000 282 483 14 000 56 545 11 000 20 247 2 729 2 729 1 364 13 468

0.17 0.27 0.10 0.30 0.87 0.02 0.17 0.51 0.51 0.09 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.17

1 169 6 738 988 4 449 58 000 2 825 1 260 2 827 440 405 2 183 5 458 818 3 906 91 466

-760 -3 213 -2 533 -10 875 -15 581 -5 227 -6 -12 850 -112 -195 389 -446 -7 -127 -51 543

6M 2011 EUR ('000) Kέρδη 2011

6M 2012 EUR ('000) Kέρδη 2012

6M '11 -59 -1 207 -284 -3 086 -826 -2 488 -12 -3 619 -72 -75

6M '12 -43 -316 -705 -2 885 2 100 -1 489 -12 -873 -136 -82


81 202 128 936 15 296 5 055 391 155 157 138 7 700 25 000 11 385 47 853 72 562 60 250 2 000 21 827 42 450 61 739 189 377 296 665 54 166 70 220 629 785 38 581 124 009 60 674

0.21 0.17 0.34 0.03 0.086 0.17 0.12 0.43 0.43 0.87 0.34 0.35 0.43 0.17 0.17 0.06 0.01 $0.20 0.17 0.17 0.04 0.17 0.09 0.57


812 11 604 8 872 202 23 469 1 571 385 16 250 228 39 239 9 433 8 435 540 218 5 519 8 643 1 894 5 933 5 417 702 6 298 386 1 240 36 404 193 695

0.1767 0.06 2.40 -0.61 -0.12 -0.20 -0.05 1.30 0.086 0.05 0.29 0.67 0.2224 0.11 0.45 0.06 -0.38 -0.27 0.28 0.000 -0.06 0.05 -0.12 0.43

-94.34 1.50 0.24 -0.07 -0.48 -0.05 -1.09 0.50 0.23 16.40 0.44 0.21 1.21 0.09 0.29 2.47 -0.03 -0.07 0.36 33.33 -0.16 -0.08 1.40

1 809 820

-214 -3 960 1 846 -1 353 232 -31 800 -335 -1 938 221 -504 -2 203 -703 -180 774 999 -2 378 -7 100 -50 257 93 -173 -50 598 -1 062 -764 -6 534 -157 891 154 191

2011 EUR ('000) Κέρδη µετά φορολ.

P/E ratio 2011

-737 -4 301 -1 465 -10 771 -14 687 -6 357 -255 -9 493 -165 -150 331 -136 -36 -303 -48 525

-241 -4 682

6M '11

6M '12





-29 288 -4 033 -79 -449

-32 125 -4 345 -132 -588

-977 -75

-1 226 -57



-2 708

-2 452



-12 257

-12 535

-137 -3 801 -52 702

-322 616 -54 792

-27 -12 265 989 -1 856 -23 885 -9 100 -245 -701 35 -551 -2 754 -77 -180 87 612 -2 656 -11 700 -32 272 -328 -320 -16 501 -1 737 -60 -6 248 -121 740

-202 164

-1 673 001

-5 477 098

Earnings Per

Dividend Per

Dividend Yield


Share 2011 Cents






Results Cents


-43 -11 771

Cents -1.26 -7.66 -2.97 -24.21 -7.34 -2.25 -1.82 -16.79 -1.50 -0.74 12.13 -4.98 -2.64 -2.25

2012 High Low EUR EUR Aνώτατο Kατώτατο



Last Close EUR Kλείσιµο

Price 31/12/2011 EUR Tιµή 31/12/2011

31/12/2011 Ποσ. Μετ. 31/12/2011

611.23 0.02 0.12 0.02 0.10 0.29 0.01 0.09 0.05 0.04 0.02 0.80 2.00 0.60 0.29

454.51 0.02 0.09 0.03 0.14 0.19 0.01 0.10 0.10 0.04 0.02 0.80 2.00 0.60 0.25

34.48 0.00 33.33 -33.33 -28.57 52.63 0.00 -10.00 -50.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.00

0.01 0.09 0.58 0.04 0.06 0.01 0.05 0.65 0.02 0.82 0.13 0.14 0.27 0.01 0.13 0.14 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.60

0.01 0.11 0.65 0.04 0.06 0.01 0.05 0.65 0.02 0.62 0.16 0.11 0.27 0.01 0.13 0.14 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.60

-18.18 -10.49 0.00 32.26 -18.75 27.27 0.00 -

% Change








-0.03 -9.51 6.47 -36.72 -6.11 -5.79 -3.18 -2.80 0.31 -1.15 -3.80 -0.13 -9.00 0.40 1.44 -4.30 -6.18 -10.88 -0.61 -0.46 -2.62 -4.50 -0.05 -10.30









source: Eurivex Ltd. NAV: Net Asset Value

PAT:Profit After Tax

Bold: Final results

EPS: Earnings per Share based on existing number of shares. P/E: Price to Earnings ratio. Weighted P/E ratio: Calculated based on market cap weighting of profit reporting companies, Book Value: According to our estimates. N/A Indicates Not Applicable, Price 31/12/2009 is the closing price or in case of New Listings the opening price.



No. of Shares (000) 1 690 1 950 300 000 1 575 100 000 8 057 1 200 35 052 3 400 321 10 906 1 810 8 390 6 500

Market Cap EUR (000) 11 830 36 855 300 000 5 513 75 000 21 834 14 280 42 062 3 400 1 611 43 624 2 552 13 760 10 010 582 331

Latest price EUR 7.00 18.90 1.00 3.50 0.75 2.71 11.90 1.20 1.00 5.02 4.00 1.41 1.64 1.54

Nominal Value EUR 0.30 0.01 0.10 0.30 0.50 1.00 0.01 0.25 0.10 1.00 0.32 1.00 0.01 0.20

Listing Date 29/3/10 29/3/10 29/3/10 29/3/10 06/8/10 21/7/11 10/9/10 10/10/11 2/11/11 10/04/12 28/06/12 29/06/12 17/07/12 11/09/12


Ignores weighted number of shares in circulation Forecasted profits are liable to change without notice and responsibility

No. of warrants (000) 893 24831 17606 2218

Mkt Cap (00) 1 25 176 22 224

CSE Code

No. of Bonds

Exercise Period

Exercise Price euro cents

Expiry Date

41212 20-30 Jun 2001-2015 1-15 May & 1-15 Nov 07-13 1-15 Nov 2010 and 2012

8.67 173 20c or EUR 35c 29

30-10-2012 30-06-2005 15-11-2013 15/11/2012

Latest Close 0.001 0.001 0.010 0.010


1 040

Market Cap EUR 104 000 000

Latest price EUR 100 000

Listing Date 8 Nov 2011

Latest NAV N/A

Kappasquare Ltd Nugreat Ltd Zetadynamic Ltd


17 000 23 000 9 000

1 700 000 2 300 000 900 000

100 100 100

30 Mar 2012 30 Mar 2012 30 Mar 2012


Akcern Ltd


2 001

200 100


9 May 2012


DISCLAIMER: The information, comments, analyses and financial data published in this newspaper were obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed and may change without notice. Any of the information or opinions published herein should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell investments. No liability is accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this publication.

September 19 - 25, 2012


A come-down may be waiting after Fed high WALL ST WEEKAHEAD Comparing the Federal Reserve to a rehab clinic offering addicted investors a synthetic high has been a favourite of Wall Street wags ever since the first round of Fed stimulus nearly four years ago. The punch line is that you always need more and more to get the same high and each bout of euphoria is followed by a crashing come-down. After the frenetic reaction brought about by the announcement of the Fed’s programme - $40 bln pumped into the U.S. economy each month - this week is likely to bring a more sober period for markets as investors digest what it means in the longer run and turn their attention to the remainder of the year. That will include rancorous U.S. elections in November, wrangling over taxes and spending cuts and a slowdown in corporate earnings. “Right now we have this short-term euphoria. But then the question is where do we go from here,” said Frank Fantozzi, chief executive of Planned Financial Services, an independent wealth manager in Cleveland. “I think after a week or so, if the underlying economic data doesn’t change, you’re going to see the market drop a bit and we’ll continue to plod along until the election.” The effect on markets of the European Central Bank’s plan to buy government bonds of struggling euro zone countries, then the Fed’s opened-ended commitment to spur growth have been breathtaking. The Dow and the S&P 500 reached the highest closing level in nearly five years while the Nasdaq marched to new 12-year highs. HEADY TERRITORY But in Friday’s stock market action strong gains in the morning steadily eroded throughout the day, perhaps the first signs of fatigue creeping into the market. “We are starting to get into that heady territory where you need to be on the defensive,” said Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Aubach Grayson in New York. “Trying to squeak out the last 5% of a move when there is potentially a 15 to 20%

downside in my opinion is pretty dangerous stuff.” Ross believes that equities, commodities and currencies are now approaching extreme levels of both price and momentum while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are rising. Even though all the major stock market rallies since the financial crisis have coincided with new central bank efforts to stimulate the economy, not everyone is buying it. The latest data shows a moderate increase in short interest bets that stocks will fall - across S&P 500 stocks during the last two weeks of August, a period when stocks were rallying on expectations of the Fed’s announcement. Typically short interest inversely tracks the market. If investors were getting out of bets that stocks will fall, that would mean buying back those stocks and forcing the market higher.

Data provided by Schaeffer’s Investment Research, a Cincinnati-based research firm, shows that bets against the biggest 500 U.S. companies edged back to about 7.3 bln shares after falling from about 7.6 bln to 7.2 bln from the start of July through the end of August - a period when the market gained more than 3%. REDUCE VOLATILITY That uptick in short interest could be significant. From the middle of September 2011 through the end of May this year, short interest on S&P 500 stocks fell like a stone to about 6 bln shares. During that period the S&P hit a four-year high, rising more than 20% from trough to peak. One side effect of the Fed’s bond-buying should be to reduce volatility in markets. That means the CBOE VIX volatility index should remain close to the five-year lows it hit this summer. In August it fell as low as 13.30. Yet activity in the options market shows some very bold bets that volatility could sky rocket in the months ahead. Call option

buying on the VIX - bets the index will rise - is close to a record high at 5.182 mln contracts, according to Schaeffer’s data. The record is 5.249 mln set in August. The most actively traded VIX calls on the Chicago Board Options Exchange were October calls with a strike price of 60. Those also had the highest open interest. The VIX would need to rocket more than 300% by mid-October, hitting its highest level in about four years, for that trade to break even. On the face of it, a bet like that may seem little better than betting your 401(k) on a single number on the roulette table, but it does reveal more bearishness creeping into the market as stock indexes march to new highs. Open interest, or outstanding contracts, on the October VIX calls with a strike price of 60 was 37,000 while traded volume was around 40,000. Many of those were bought in blocks of 2000 to 5000 for 5 cents each, suggesting a single buyer, according to Todd Salamone, vice president of research at Schaeffer’s. “Somebody’s really playing a disaster by October,” Salamone said. “If they’re looking for something that big, that is not a portfolio hedge because that would be a lot of downside in the market before that hedge would actually kick in.” A lot of the market action over the coming months will depend on whether the Fed’s stimulus program succeeds in boosting the economy. Data on the housing market this week is expected to show a continuing improvement. Economists in a Reuters poll expect the National Association of Home Builders Index to tick up in September when the data is released on Tuesday. On Wednesday both housing starts and existing-home sales are expected to increase. Early manufacturing data for September, however, is not expected to be so robust. Both the Empire State index and the Philadelphia Fed index are tipped to show contraction. That would follow the sharpest drop in U.S. manufacturing in more than three years in August, which was also the third consecutive month of contraction. “Let’s face it - we are in truly unchartered waters here,” said Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at the ConvergEx Group in New York.

Policy euphoria makes way for humdrum data


l Euro zone, Japanese, Chinese surveys likely to be weak; monetary elixir from Fed, ECB needs time to work The world’s top two central banks have administered extrastrong monetary painkillers, but the global economy will still need a lot more time to recover from its thumping debt hangover. Financial markets were euphoric after the Federal Reserve surpassed expectations and promised on Thursday to keep the money taps fully open until the U.S. labour market makes a sustained recovery. The European Central Bank had already impressed investors a week earlier by pre-announcing unlimited, albeit conditional, secondary-market purchases to bring down sky-high yields on bonds issued by struggling euro zone members such as Spain. Now it’s time to come down to earth. Surveys due this week are likely to show why, in the words of Stephen Cecchetti, the chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements, there are no grounds for complacency. Global financial reforms are not yet complete. Southern Europe has not solved its fiscal problems and lack of competitiveness. And the world economy is listless, he said. “The pace of the recovery in the advanced economies remains disappointing. There are also signs of lower economic growth in emerging market countries,” Cecchetti said on a conference call. Exhibit No. 1 underlining that weakness will be Thursday’s advance September poll of purchasing managers across the euro zone. It is likely to show the 17-country area mired in recession. Economists polled by Reuters expect the index derived from the survey to edge up to 45.5, from 45.1 in August, but that

would still be well below the 50 mark delineating contraction from expansion. “A lot of very difficult steps need to be taken sooner rather than later for the sovereign debt crisis to be resolved and, until

By ALAN WHEATLEY Global Economics Correspondent, Reuters

then, the economy will likely remain sluggish at best,” said Bert Colijn, an economist at The Conference Board research group. ASIA WATCH Exhibit No. 2, from Japan, will be the Reuters Tankan survey for September due on Wednesday, which is likely to point to challenging conditions for manufacturers, according to economists at Daiwa Capital Markets. The Japanese government last week lowered its growth outlook for the second month in a row, putting pressure on the central bank to ease monetary policy afresh, not least to weaken the yen. The Bank of Japan ends a two-day meeting on Wednesday. However, Daiwa expects the central bank to stand pat until next month.

Exhibit No. 3 a day later will be September’s survey of Chinese purchasing managers. With no obvious pick-up in activity, Goldman Sachs is looking for more weakness after August’s reading of 47.5. Many investors have been surprised that China has not acted more forcefully to cushion this year’s slowdown in growth. Cecchetti with the Basel-based BIS said the moderation in developing nations could have the welcome effect of putting their growth on a more sustained footing. “But, even so, it means that the emerging market economies won’t support global growth as much as they have in recent years,” he said. Which means waiting for the Fed’s and the ECB’s monetary medicine to kick in. Andrew Cates, an economist with UBS in London, said it has been foolhardy until recently to think Europe might spring a positive surprise. But now, despite a still-difficult near-term outlook, the ECB’s plan to buy bonds provides some modest grounds for optimism. “If that initiative is successful in removing the risk of a euro zone default and exit scenario, credit conditions in the European banking sector ought to ease up, thereby generating a higher flow of finance to the real economy,” Cates said in a report. His economic modelling suggests that increased lending to businesses and consumers could boost 2013 GDP in the euro zone by 0.5 percentage point. The spillover of confidence could raise U.S. output by 0.3 percentage points, while Chinese growth would get a similar boost through higher demand for its exports.

Financial Mirror Newspaper 19-25  

financal mirror weekly edition

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