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Markets push Spain closer to bailout l Pays 2nd highest euro-era yield on short-term debt Spain paid the second highest yield on short-term debt since the birth of the euro at an auction on Tuesday, reflecting a growing belief that the country will need a full sovereign bailout that the euro zone can barely afford. Spain’s increasingly desperate struggle to put its finances right has seen its borrowing costs soar to levels that are not payable indefinitely. Italy, commonly regarded as too big to bail out, has been dragged along in its wake. The Spanish Treasury sold the three billion euros of 3- and 6-month bills it was aiming to although yields climbed with the six-month paper jumping to 3.691% from 3.237% last month. “The most important takeaway from this auction is that Spain was able get all its debt out the door,” said Nicholas Spiro of Spiro Sovereign Strategies. “Still, in March, Spain was able to issue six-month debt at a yield of under 1%, now it is paying 3.7%.” Spain had cushioned itself by securing well over half its annual debt needs in the first six months of the year when market conditions were more benign but that advantage has evaporated. On Friday, the government said it expected the economy to remain in recession well into next year while the autonomous region of Valencia became the first to ask Madrid for aid to pay debt obligations it cannot meet. Others are expected to follow. Spain’s north-eastern region of Catalonia, responsible for a fifth of the country’s output, said on Tuesday it was studying a government plan to help it meet a heavy funding schedule but will not decide whether to sign up until later this year. On the secondary market, Spanish fiveyear government bond yields rose above 10-

sure, although Italian premier Mario Monti said on Monday the ECB did not have to leap into action just yet. The ECB has cut interest rates but has shown marked reluctance to revive its bondbuying programme, the only mechanism that could lower borrowing costs at a stroke. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said further aid for Spain could take the form of an increase in Europe’s rescue fund or action by the ECB. “I hope it will not be necessary to intervene again,” he told France 2 television. “If we have to intervene, it could be an increase in the firewalls ... or interventions by the central bank.”

year yields for the first time since June 2001. Having to pay more to borrow shorter-term rather than longer-term is usually a sign that markets think the risk of a default or debt restructuring has increased. “The spread between 5- and 10-years moved to negative today, which is a classic sign that the market thinks the current trends are unsustainable for Spain’s fiscal dynamics,” said Nick Stamenkovic, bond strategist at RIA Capital Markets. The premium investors demand to hold Spanish 10-year bonds is now at its highest level since the birth of the monetary union, at 7.6%, while the cost of insuring Spanish debt against default has also hit record highs. Ten-year yields of over 7% have proved to be a tipping point which eventually led to bailouts elsewhere in the euro zone, though

de Guindos insisted on Monday Madrid would not need more aid. Madrid has already asked for up to 100 bln euros to recapitalise its banks which have been battered by a four year economic downturn and a burst property bubble. The government has launched a fresh 65 bln euros package of tax rises and spending cuts designed to chip away at its debt mountain but which will probably drive the economy deeper into recession. The alarming spiral of Spain’s debt costs has banished any hopes that a bailout of its banks, or a June EU summit which gave the euro zone’s rescue funds a green light to intervene in the markets, has put the debt crisis into abeyance. Spain and Italy have called on their partners or the ECB to help ward off market pres-

SPREADING PAIN The euro zone as a whole is now subsiding into recession. Business surveys on Tuesday showed the currency area’s private sector shrank for a sixth month in July with the downturn that began in the euro zone’s high debtors now becoming entrenched in Germany and France. Moody’s lowered its outlook for Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg to negative from stable late on Monday, citing an increased chance that Greece could leave the euro zone, which could spark a wave of uncontrolled contagion. It also warned Germany and the other ‘AAA’-rated countries that they might have to increase support for Spain and Italy. Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos flies to Berlin later to meet his German counterpart, Wolfgang Schaeuble. For investors, Spain has become the focus but Greece - where the debt crisis first exploded - remains a powder keg.

Troika back on make-or-break Greek visit l Inspectors to decide whether to give more funds from bailout deal as Athens

is behind on targets set as condition of bailout Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said on Tuesday he would push ahead with implementing deep spending cuts and lashed out at unnamed foreign officials for sabotaging his country’s efforts to solve its problems. Samaras addressed members of his party as inspectors from the troika, the trio of international lenders keeping Greece afloat, returned to Athens to relaunch its stalled economic plan. The officials from the IMF, European Commission and ECB must decide whether to keep the nation hooked up to a 130-bln-euro lifeline or let it go bust. In his speech, Samaras said some foreign officials were making irresponsible comments, predicting Greece won’t make it. “I say it openly and publicly, they undermine our national effort. We do all we can to

bring the country back on its feet and they do all they can so we can fail,” he said. He did not say who exactly he was referring to but on Sunday German economy minister Philipp Roesler said he did not expect Greece could fulfil its requirements and that that would mean no more money for Athens. Greece has fallen behind targets agreed as conditions of its bailout deal, mainly due to three months of political limbo as it struggled to form a government after two inconclusive elections but also because of resistance to reforms from unions and special interests. While seeking to re-negotiate some of the bailout terms, Samaras said Greek lawmakers had to demonstrate progress on spending cuts. “There are certainly delays in this year’s agreed programme and we must quickly catch up,”

said Samaras. “Let’s not kid ourselves, there is still big waste in the public sector and it must stop.” Greece blames a deeper than expected recession, seen at about 7% of GDP this year, for missing its tax revenue and budget deficit goals and wants two more years’ breathing space to avoid inflicting harsher fiscal measures on a public already enduring tax hikes, spending and wage cuts and record joblessness. Samaras said the economy might shrink by more than 7% in 2012 and it would take Greece two years to return to growth. Unemployment was close to 24%, he said. Troika officials say Athens is failing to implement measures that will boost growth, such as planned privatisations, a major tax reform and the opening of closed markets and professions. “The programme has not produced the desired

results because it was not implemented. We must first see the government fulfil its commitments and then decide if it works or if it needs to be adjusted,” a troika source told Reuters. Yannis Stournaras, an economist who chaired a respected think-tank before becoming finance minister, has said he will not ask for an extension or change of terms before proving the new government’s credibility - starting with 11.7 bln euros’ worth of cuts for 2013-14 that should have been drawn up in June. The government has come up with only 8 bln euros of cuts and is scrambling to close the gap, officials said. In the meantime, the lenders may have to extend Greece a bridge loan to cover a 3.2 billion euro bond payment due in late August to stop it going bust and putting Italy and Spain in the markets’ firing line.

Greece will need more debt restructuring Greece is unlikely to be able to pay what it owes and further debt restructuring is likely to be necessary, three EU officials said in Brussels on Tuesday, a cost that would have to fall on the European Central Bank and euro zone governments. Inspectors from the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF — together known as the troika — returned to Athens on Tuesday and will complete their debt-sustainability

analysis next month, but the sources said the conclusions were already becoming clear. It means Greece’s official-sector creditors — the ECB and euro zone governments — will have to restructure some of the estimated 200 bln euros of Greek government debt they own if Athens is to be put back on a sustainable footing. But there is no willingness among member states or the ECB to take such dramatic action at

this stage. An official pointed to the latest growth estimates from Athens, which show the economy contracting by 7% this year rather than the 5% previously forecast, meaning that the debt burden is only increasing in relation to GDP. Under the terms of the second bailout agreement struck with the EU and IMF in February, Greece committed itself to further spending cuts and tax increases in exchange for a 100-bln-euro reduction in its debts.

July 25 - 31, 2012


The party’s over! Is our corporate tax “safe” at 10%? Troika is back, but warns that any Cyprus bailout would need to see VAT hiked to 20%, minimum wage cut by 15%, COLA abolished and retirement age rise to 65 Employer federations and non-partisan economists have been vindicated: austerity measures and reforms that should have been introduced a long time ago will now be imposed on us if Cyprus has any hope of getting an international bailout it asked for last month. The “evil” troika technocrats want discussions to focus on hiking VAT from 17% to 20%, cut the recently propped-up minimum wage by 15%, abolish the burdensome automatic cost of living allowance (COLA) and raise the mandatory retirement age from 63 to 65. And if the government has the courage to proceed with these long-awaited reforms then there is a good chance that the 10% corporation tax will remain intact otherwise cause irreparable damage to the main driver of the services-based economy. The ‘troika’ inspectors from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF launched their second round of consultations on Monday to pin down the island’s needs to buffer its banking sector from severe losses over its exposure to Greece and pay down its runaway public sector deficit, becoming the fifth euro zone country to seek outside financial help. The ‘troika’ teams met with officials from the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, as well as a ministerial committee tasked with advising the communist government on how to tackle the current crisis. The new round of meetings are expected to include trade unions, employers and other social partners and should be completed by Friday, with the main focus on the banking sec-

tor. “The meetings aim at developing common views with regard to the main challenges currently facing the Cyprus economy as well as the appropriate strategy and policy responses,” the finance ministry said in a statement. The government was left out of pocket after underwriting a 1.8 bln euro capital shortfall for the Popular Bank whit has effectively nationalised. Regulatory capital, an indicator of financial strength, was severely depleted for both Popular and the largest lender, Bank of Cyprus, when they were forced to take a writedown agreed by European leaders to make Greece’s sovereign debt mountain more sustainable. The decision dealt a critical blow to the Cypriot economy. Combined, Popular and Bank of Cyprus require 2.3 bln euros in fresh regulatory capital and have looked to the government for assistance. While concentrating on the banking sector, the technocrats are pursuing a bailout for the economy as a whole. It is unclear how much funding Cyprus may need, but markets are speculating on about 10 bln euros. Rating agency Standard and Poor’s last week said the bailout bill could reach up to 15 bln, taking into account existing and future banking needs, and future fiscal requirements. Recent government decisions will have to be overturned as too painful for the island’s economy, which is why unionimposed labour costs are making Cyprus uncompetitive. This year’s increase in the minimum wage will probably have to be cut by 15% from the current 909 euros, despite grumblings from unions that fear a chain effect hurting the

public sector wages that are much higher than private sector employees. Also, the pledge to freeze salaries has become a paradox as the COLA automatic wage indexation system has seen a 2.9% increase on wages in real terms, making the abolition of COLA an urgency, as suggested by the IMF for the past 20 years or so. However, in order to safeguard the 10% corporation tax, which the ‘troika’ wants to see increased, the counter-proposal would be to hike VAT from the current 17% to 20%. This will probably be repeated to the troika inspectors by presidential candidate Nicos Anastassiades, employer associations OEV and KEVE, as well as the members of the accounting profession.

Say yes to troika or risk a full-scale banking collapse Emergency bank funding leaps to EUR 8 bln The reliance of Cypriot banks, or perhaps just one Cypriot bank, on emergency funding from the Central Bank of Cyprus has risen alarmingly in recent months, suggesting that the banking system is under increasing strain and will continue to be so until the troika funding comes through. The figure called “other claims on euro are institutions denominated in euro”, which is the euphemism for Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) from the Central Bank of Cyprus, shot up to EUR 8 bln in June 2012, from EUR 5.6 bln in May. In June 2011 it was a mere EUR 171,708 (less than two hundred thousand). One reason for the massive increase is the decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) to stop accepting Republic of Cyprus bonds as collateral for ECB liquidity assistance. The decision came just after Fitch Ratings became the third rating agency to put the Cyprus sovereign into junk status at the end of June this year. But that cannot explain all of it. Inferring from the numbers, assistance from both the ECB and Central Bank of Cyprus ELA rose to EUR 13.2 bln in June from EUR 9.7 bln in January 2012 and EUR 5.8 bln in June 2011. Therefore, it is clear that the overall needs have risen.


Another likely reason for increased assistance is a certain local bank’s mismatch of group deposits and loans. According to the 2011 audited accounts, the mismatch was approaching EUR 5 bln at the end of 2011. This gap might have widened even more in the period before the second Greek election, which would explain the sharp increase in ELA between May and June. The decision to allow ELA lies with the board of the ECB. What is more difficult to establish is when the ECB decides it

has to stop. In theory, the ECB is not supposed to care, since liability for ELA is held by the central bank, or, in other words, with the country of the central bank. But when that country cannot even borrow EUR 200 mln to roll over a few Treasury bills, then it is clearly an ECB problem. If the ECB does not want assume a EUR 8 bln liability for Cyprus on top of the other loans it will be giving, it might just decide to call a halt to the ELA. Even if the ECB does not call a halt to ELA, the numbers demonstrate that the longer the political leadership tries to argue with the troika, the bigger the strain on the banks and the higher the chances that something will simply snap. I hope that the difficulties encountered by a couple of diplomats trying to get money out of any ATM this week are not a sign that this has already happened. That is why the government needs to stop negotiating and simply sign on the dotted line. It will be far less costly than letting a bank collapse. That would bring down the entire banking system and take the economy back 30 years. Fiona Mullen Director, Sapienta Economics Ltd

“Hands off the corporate tax” The overall positive assessment on the current attractiveness of Cyprus as a business centre is driven mainly by the low tax rate which tops the list of island’s main advantages, according to a new survey commissioned by Baker Tilly Cyprus. The survey, “Prospects of Cyprus as a business centre”, found that 74% of international companies based here believe that the low corporate tax rate of 10% is the main advantage Cyprus has to attract foreign companies and investments. This is supported by the spontaneous responses to an open question as to what they consider as the main competitive

advantage of Cyprus. The survey also found that the overall number of references to the tax system was 85%, while the second advantage, but far from the first one, was the strategic position of Cyprus with corresponding percentages 9% and 27%. “Research has shown how important foreign investors believe our tax rate is and how it helps them in taking the final decision to set up companies in Cyprus, either with presence in Cyprus or through representatives,” said Marios Klitou, CEO of Baker Tilly Cyprus.

“The dependence of Cyprus on the provision of services to foreign investors is huge,” Klitou said, adding that “our corporate tax rate of 10% must be protected at all cost. The Cypriot authorities and the entire political and business world should stand united and firm in this universal demand. “Any negotiations with the Troika delegation (EU, ECB and IMF) should focus on other measures to improve the economy. If we increase the rate of corporate tax, the impact on the economy and the future of the whole of Cyprus will be tragic and irreversible,” Klitou concluded.

July 25 - 31, 2012


S&P sees bailout over €15 bln, €6.6 bln to gov’t Standard and Poor’s estimates that any bailout for cashstrapped Cyprus would likely be ?upwards? of 15 bln euros. Cyprus formally applied for financial support from its EU partners last month, becoming the fifth member in the eurozone to do so because of a runaway budget deficit and its banks’ vast exposure to Greek sovereign debt. Over the past two years, the rating agency has downgraded the Republic of Cyprus (BB+/Negative/B) a total of six notches, citing potential write-downs arising from the banks’ exposures to the Greek public and private sectors, as well as delays in the consolidation of public finances. Faced with the need to recapitalise the largest two lenders – Bank of Cyprus and Popular Bank – to the tune of 2.3 bln euros, and a testing government debt maturity profile, Cyprus is now negotiating a support package with the “troika” of the EU, ECB and the IMF, to address its financial obligations. S&P estimate Cyprus’ total financial requirements over a three-year period at about 11 bln euros, or 61% of GDP.

Future is bright for those who invest in cooperation, says Clinton The future is bright for all those who choose productive cooperation over conflict, former US President Bill Clinton said in Cyprus on Saturday, addressing an audience of more than 600 people at the European University in Nicosia, a member of the Laureate International network of which he is the Honorary Chancellor. Clinton noted in his speech that humanity is interdependent and if we all choose to invest in productive cooperation rather than in conflict, then we will all have a better future and we will all share the benefits. He spoke about the huge inequalities in today’s world, stressing that in developed societies in particular, these inequalities have limited economic growth. President Clinton also said that instability can lead a lot of countries to “shut down” and leaves people feeling afraid and insecure. He also spoke about the climate changes and global warming, stressing that we can combat global warming with the use of renewable sources of energy, adding that this can be an answer to economic malice because we can create jobs and tackle unemployment as well. Former US President also said that natural gas is a friendlier source of energy, calling on Cypriots to use the gas reserves in Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone efficiently. He also spoke about the significance of education, knowledge, research and innovation.

Nicosia, Paphos submit final bids for European Culture Capital Nicosia and Paphos have submitted their proposals for the second phase of the European capital of culture in 2017. Nicosia’s Mayor Constantinos Yiorkadjis and his team arrived Thursday at the Ministry of Culture in buses bearing the official slogan “Get in the Zone” after a symbolic route through the areas of Nicosia which are included in plans to upgrade and revitalize them. Yiorkadjis, surrounded by supporters of Nicosia 2017, handed the proposal to the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry Olympia Stylianou. On Friday the Ministry of Education welcomed the delegation from Paphos. The town’s Mayor Savvas Vergas said Paphos is very proud and excited with the work already done, aiming to give “new life to our city”. According to Vergas, the proposal reflects and expresses the vision of Paphos, not only for today but also for the next decades. Paphos’ proposal is based on the idea of ?an “Open-Air Factory” bringing culture and the arts close to the people by mixing harmoniously viewers and creators.

However, considering the uncertainty in Greece, and buffers applied in other programmes, such as Ireland and Portugal, S&P believes the total size of a program would likely be upwards of 15 bln. To arrive at that estimate, S&P assessed the total cost of bank recapitalisation at 2.3 bln to meet the European Banking Authority (EBA) requirements. Moreover, S&P stated that if we add that to its base-case estimate for additional potential credit losses in 2012 and 2013 of 2.18 bln euros, it comes up with 4.48 bln or 25% of GDP. To that, S&P added 6.59 bln of additional financing needs in 2012-2014, which includes its estimates of the underlying budget deficit plus the amount of government debt maturing. Finally, the rating agency calculated the annual budget impact of the above financial assistance and noted that it is of similar size to its annual output (i.e. in line with its treatment for other sovereigns, it includes recapitalisation funds as an increase in the government’s debt stock and a corresponding increase in government expenditure).

S&P further noted that deep-rooted structural changes to the economy are necessary if future prosperity is to be assured. To this end, the rating agency expects that an agreement with the “troika” will act as a strong anchor. Likewise, the prospects of future commercial gas extraction off the southern coast could provide a needed boost to investment and overall growth as well as to current account receipts in the coming years. With bilateral lending unclear and the prospects of “troika” disbursements a few months away, pressure on shortterm financing will likely increase. S&P also stated that it expects that the government will have to give in on a number of politically sensitive measures to secure a package of sufficient size, increasing the focus on presidential elections early next year. S&P also noted that protecting an advantageous tax environment of 10% on corporates may prove more difficult than foreseen. Ultimately, S&P views that securing a bailout package is only one of the challenges currently facing Cyprus.

Recession to continue throughout 2012 The economy will continue to be in recession throughout 2012, according to the University of Cyprus Economics Research Centre’s latest forecasts. For the second quarter, GDP growth is forecasted at -1.8%, while the forecasts for 3Q and 4Q are less negative at -1.4% and -1.2%, respectively; GDP growth for 2012 is projected at -1.5%. The forecast for 1Q and 2Q of 2013 is positive at 0.1% and 1.2%, respectively; hence, a slight increase in activity of 0.6% is forecasted for 1H 2013, although this projection could be accompanied by some downside risks, the forecast said. The continuing economic recession is likely to exert further

pressure on the already troubled public finances, push unemployment at even higher levels, damage further the confidence in the capacity of the economy to recover from the crisis, and worsen the adverse domestic credit conditions at a time when the banks are in financial distress. Due to the recessionary condition of the economy (and low foreign inflation), inflation in Cyprus is forecasted at 3.0% for 2012 and at 2.2% for 1H 2013. Inflation for 3Q and 4Q 2012 is forecasted at 3.2% and 3.0%, respectively, while it is projected to decrease to 2.0% and 2.3% in 1Q and 2Q of 2013, respectively.

Gov’t debt leaps 11% Compared with the first quarter of 2011, 23 EU Member States registered an increase in their debt to GDP ratio at the end of the first quarter of 2012, with the highest increases in the ratio recorded in Portugal (+17.2 pp), Cyprus (+11.0 pp) and Ireland (+8.2 pp), and the largest decreases in Greece (20.0 pp) and Hungary (-4.1 pp), according to Eurostat. At the end of the first quarter of 2012, the government debt to GDP ratio in the euro area (EA17) stood at 88.2%, compared with 87.3% at the end of the fourth quarter of 2011. In the

EU27 the ratio increased from 82.5% to 83.4%. Compared with the first quarter of 2011, the government debt to GDP ratio rose in both the euro area (from 86.2% to 88.2%) and the EU27 (from 80.4% to 83.4%). At the end of the first quarter of 2012, securities other than shares accounted for 78.3% of euro area and 79.3% of EU27 general government debt. Loans made up 17.8% of euro area and 15.6% of EU27 government debt. Currency and deposits represented 2.8% of euro area and 3.8% of EU27 government debt.

July 25 - 31, 2012


EAC seeks more oil for 2013 The Electricity Authority of Cyprus is seeking more than 1.2 mln tonnes of gasoil and fuel oil for next year’s power generation, a 15% increase from its 2012 purchase, as its electricity resources remain stretched after the main power generating facility at Vassilikos, which generated most of the island’s electricity, was almost totally destroyed by a blast of decaying munitions stored at a nearby navy base last year. The disaster forced authorities to put ageing plants back online, lease mobile generators, tap into underutilised wind and solar farms and get electricity supplies from the Turkish Cypriot side. The EAC is now seeking 408,000 tonnes of 0.1% sulphur gasoil for delivery into Vassilikos over December 2012 to January 2014, a tender document showed on Tuesday. It is also seeking 405,000 tonnes of heavy fuel oil with max-

imum 1% sulphur for delivery into Vassilikos power station and another 418,000 tonnes for delivery into the auxiliary power stations at Dhekelia or Moni. The cargoes are to be priced off benchmark Mediterranean quotes. Both tenders close on August 31 and are valid until December 29. While the size of the contract was large, as supply for the whole year was on offer, traders said the volume was comparable to previous years and in line with expectations. The EAC last bought 492,000 tonnes of heavy fuel oil for delivery in 2012 from Petrobras at premiums of $26-28 a tonne over Mediterranean Italy quotes. It also bought 374,000 tonnes of the product from trader Totsa at premiums of $24-26 a tonne. Totsa also supplied about 200,000 tonnes of gasoil at a premium of $26.35 a tonne to Mediterranean quotes.

DEFA to tender for natural gas “ASAP” The government wants state national gas company DEFA to consider importing natural gas “in any form” and as soon as possible, beyond the ongoing efforts to buy LNG supplies from Israel, Trade Minister Neoclis Sylikiotis said at the DEFA general meeting. He said that DEFA already completed the first stage of the planning for the national gas supply grid, for

which it has secured 10 mln euros from EU funds. The minister added that “now that we know that operator Noble Energy will start exporting natural gas from Block 12 [of the Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone] near the middle of 2017, we can now start looking at finding interim solutions for our energy needs.” “We already have an obligation to dis-

R&D inches up but still low Research and development (R&D) spending in Cyprus is inching up each year but is still tiny as a proportion of GDP according to the results of an ad hoc survey carried out by the Statistical Service. Total R&D expenditure in 2010 is estimated at EUR 86.2 mln , or 0.50% of GDP , compared with EUR 83.0 mln or 0.49% of GDP in 2009 and EUR 73.4 mln or 0.43% in 2008. This is much lower than the EU average of 2% but comparable with other new member states such as Romania (0.47%), Bulgaria (0.60%), Latvia (0.60%), Slovakia (0.63%) and Malta (0.63%). The highest spending on R&D were recorded for Sweden (3.42%) and Finland (3.87%). Educational institutions are the drivers of R&D, with higher education institutions accounting for EUR 42.9 mln or 49.8% of total R&D expenditure in 2012. The government was next, with EUR 16.9 mln of expenditure or 19.6% of the total. Business enterprises spent EUR 14.8 mln and accounted for 17.2% of the total while private non-profit institutions spent EUR 11.6 mln or 13.4%. Among businesses, the manufacturing industry, particularly manufacturers of basic pharmaceutical products and preparations, was the principal source of R&D activity,

with total expenditure of EUR 5.1 mln. Computer programming, consultancy and related activities spent EUR 4.8 mln. Most R&D spending went on natural sciences (EUR 33.4 mln). Engineering and technology absorbed EUR 17.7 mln, the social sciences EUR 14.2 mln, the agricultural sciences EUR 10.2 mln, the humanities EUR 7.3 mln and the medical sciences EUR 3.3 mln. The government is a major funder of R&D with 42.9% of activity or EUR 37.0 mln being financed from government funds in 2010. However, this was lower than in 1999, when the amounted was EUR 37.8 mln or 45.6%. Another EUR 21.9 mln was drawn from the budget of public universities and EUR 12.9 mln from sources from abroad (including EUR 11.7 mln from European Union funds). The private sector spent EUR 14.4 mln constituted compared with EUR 15.7 mln in 2009. The number of people engaged in R&D activities stood at 2,628 in 2010 compared with 2,591 in 2009. In full-time equivalent terms, this number is estimated at 1,303 persons, of which 527 or 40.4% were women and 35.0% were holders of PhD level degrees.

Construction prices stable Construction prices were stable in June, giving some respite to construction companies, whcih ahve seen a massive decline in business. According to the Statistical Service the price index of construction materials rose by 0.07% over the previous month in June. In January - June 2012, the construction materials price index rose by 1.29% compared with the same period last year.

Industrial turnover down in April Industrial turnover fell by 2.1% over the year earlier in April, with the manufacturing subindex dropping by 6.1%. In the period January-April 2012, industrial turnover fell by 2.8% compared with the same period of the previous year.

cuss importing natural gas from Israel but if our discussion with Israel fail we should have our options to import natural gas as soon as possible,” Sylikiotis said. As Cyprus needs at least two years to set up the infrastructure to import natural gas, “we cannot have natural gas supplies here any sooner than 2015,” he concluded.

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Unlicensed holiday homes – at your own risk EDITORIAL The Internet and joining the EU common market have allowed for the holiday home business to flourish in Cyprus, becoming the main driving force for the developers to build more and sell more. The buyers are often European expats and some Cypriots who want to invest in a retirement home and rent it out to holidaymakers in order to pay down the mortgage or build up a nest egg. Online bookings are now transacted by the minute, with hundreds of thousands of euros trading hands every month, especially during the holiday season from May to October. As much as the consumer benefits from finding and

comparing rates for “your ideal holiday home” in the Dot Com world, there is a great risk of the property not exactly being as advertised. As a result, many families from the U.K. and the colder northern European markets show up at a villa or apartment not realizing that there are noisy and dusty builders next door or that the house does not include all the amenities, while the “hire car available”, is a battered up old Suzuki jeep or Toyota Corolla in the garage. Furthermore, money is exchanged in the form of an upfront deposit with the balance usually paid prior to moving in, which makes it excruciatingly difficult for disappointed holidaymakers to get part or a full refund. This means that “remote operators” give Cyprus a bad name, because regardless if the owner is in Sussex, Surrey or Southampton, it is the “Cyprus property” that gets a

blast in the local paper, much to the ire of the right honorable MP of that constituency. The worst is that the CTO has no say in the regulation of individual holiday homes, although hotels and holiday apartments are obliged to sign up to a public contract in return for a star classification. Due to this uncontrolled situation, which some travel agencies had been pointlessly campaigning against for decades, the state too is losing out in millions of euros in unclaimed taxes as these transactions are untraced. Very few villa owners have properly registered their homes and some have even established Cyprus companies, which at least leaves some revenue to Company House. Perhaps one more thing for the new bosses at CTO to consider?

Fully understand the risks involved before placing your money! In the last couple of weeks we have experienced another unfortunate event in the ongoing (and expanding) list of Cyprus’ financial troubles, namely the substantial loss of wealth of a number of our fellow citizens from their investment in the Contigent Convertible (CoCo) bonds of our two main banks. From what we know thus far, it looks like that a number of these investors (not all of them though) had invested blindly into these securities without properly understanding the risks involved, thinking that it’s another deposit scheme that provides a higher interest rate to what they have been earning thus far. I fully agree with those that are demanding a thorough investigation into this matter to understand what exactly went wrong so that such unfortunate repeats do not occur in the future. If an investor wants to take extra risk hoping for extra return, that’s perfectly fine. But he/she should be properly warned about such risks. On the other hand, investors should also realize that they should be more careful as to where they invest their money. Don’t invest without fully understanding the instrument involved and the risks involved! The purpose of this article is to shed some light to ordinary people as to the type of risks that can be found in debt instruments, so that they are more prepared in the future. A prime source of risk is credit risk, i.e. the risk that the issuer will fail to satisfy the terms of the obligation. That could involve the issuer missing a promised interest payment, or even failing to pay the original amount borrowed (principal). It could also involve a restructuring of the existing debt, if the issuer is unable

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to meet its obligations (as in the case recently with the Greek government). That is why the rating agencies are important, as their assessment provides us with an indication whether the issuer has the ability to repay us back according to the provisions of the debt contract. It used to be the case that government debt was considered to be free of credit risk, and that corporate debt (debt issued by corporations) entailed such risk (at various levels). Well, not anymore, as we painfully found out through the restructuring of the Greek government debt (although there were lots of prior warnings, such as the case with the Russian and Argentinian default in 1998 and 2002, respectively).


Associate Professor of Finance and Director of MSc in Finance & Banking, CIIM However, credit is certainly not the only source of risk, and we should fully understand all the other types of risks involved in such instruments. One of them is interest rate risk, decomposed into price (maturity) and reinvestment risk. Because of the way debt instruments are priced, when interest rates go up, their prices fall (and vice versa). The price sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations varies from one instrument to another, and is an important measure that investors should seriously take into account (known as duration). Thus, if you invest for example in a long-term government bond you are exposed to interest rate fluctuations (maturity risk). On the other hand, if you have a long-term investment horizon but you decide to invest in shortterm debt securities and roll over your position each time they expire, you might end up with a lower reinvestment rate if interest rates drop in the future (reinvestment risk). Another important source of risk, especially in the corporate debt market, is liquidity risk. Liquidity refers to the ability to sell large volumes of the debt instrument quickly, without substantial loss of value, and without having to pay high transaction costs. Corporate and emerging debt markets are considered less liquid than government debt markets from developed economies, such as the US. Cyprus government and corporate bonds are also illiquid which translates into substantial risk if you need to liquidate them. You might not be able to find a buyer, or if you do find a buyer he/she might be only willing to trade at a large discount to the fair price. As with any type of investment, debt instruments are also exposed to inflation risk (or purchasing power risk). For example, receiving 1,000 euros ten years from now will most

certainly not have the same purchasing power as 1,000 euros today, because prices in the meantime will fluctuate (and most likely will go up). Long-term instruments are obviously more exposed to this risk than short-term instruments. Note that in some developed markets (US or UK), there are debt securities that directly protect you against inflation by having their interest payment and principal adjusted each period accordingly. In more special cases, investors can be exposed to call or exchange-rate risk. In some cases, corporations or governments issue what are known as callable bonds, i.e. bonds that the issuer has the right to call back (or redeem) prior to maturity at a specified (callable) price. This will happen when interest rates go down and the issuer has the ability to refinance their debt at a lower interest rate. Thus, holders of such securities are obviously exposed to call risk. Exchange-rate risk occurs in case of investment in foreign assets, i.e. securities denominated in a foreign currency. Obviously, due to exchange-rate fluctuations, such investment entails risks that investors should take into account. Finally, risks in debt instruments (or any other investment vehicle) can be decomposed into firm-specific and market risk. Firm-specific refers to the risk originating directly from the issuer. For example, investing in oil companies would entail substantial firm-specific risk, as the profitability of the company depends to a large extent to the company’s ability to extract the planned quantities of oil reserves, as well as to the price of oil in the future (which can be very volatile). However, such risk can be eliminated by holding a well-diversified portfolio. What cannot be diversified away though, is market risk, i.e. the fluctuations of your portfolio with the general market movements. In any case, we should always aim to hold well-diversified portfolios so that we completely eliminate firm-specific risk. To my mind, the lack of sufficient diversification is probably one of the most important mistakes committed by institutions in Cyprus (banks, provident funds, pension funds, etc.). They have placed much of their wealth in local (or regional) securities, ignoring the benefits that could have been achieved by diversification. If they had been more diligent in their risk assessment and construction of their portfolios, the losses incurred by their investment in Cyprus or Greek government and corporate bonds could have been offset by gains in other assets (from the international market). As noted in the beginning, the purpose of this article is to shed some light as to the type of risks that can be found in debt instruments. Let’s hope that all of us (individuals and institutions) are more careful in future investments by seriously taking into account all of the above sources of risk, so that these mistakes are not repeated.

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July 25 - 31, 2012


Is the Troika on the Wrong Track? Paul Krugman, the Noble Prize winner has written a new book which questions the wisdom of the economic austerity policies frequently prescribed by the troika.* The main theme of the book is very simple. The current financial crisis in both Europe and the USA is unnecessary. The pain, loss of jobs and privation which it has inflicted in much of the world need not have been. Krugman’s message could not be more timely, particularly for Cyprus. Characterised by exceptional clarity, Krugman’s exposition unfolds like a morality play – almost as a battle between good and evil. The central issues being contested are the effects of government debt and spending during financial crises. The writing is punctuated with quotes and evidence on both sides (although there is seldom any doubt on which side he is on).

the early stages of the current financial crisis to issue apocalyptic warnings on the dangers associated with increases in national debt. “The enormous increase in bank reserves, caused by the Fed’s purchase of bonds and mortgages …will surely bring on severe inflation if allowed to remain.” Allan Meltzer monetary economist, May 2009.

Lessons Forgotten Why have we not understood the lessons of the past? Why have we failed to learn from experience, the most obvious being the great depression of the 1930s. As regards economic theory, Krugman places much of the blame on the “perfect markets school”. According to economists such as Eugene Fama and Alan Greenspan, recessions were not supposed to happen. This “Panglossian” view of the world , says Krugman, cannot explain the basic fact that recessions do happen. They are more than just temporary anomalies intruding on the perfectionist tendencies of markets. Krugman’s thesis is that Keynes, the English economist, offers the only theoretical framework that even addresses the problem of recessions and offers a cure. The key phrase is the following: “When, there is deficient demand and interest rates are close to zero (the liquidity trap) the effectiveness of monetary policy tools is limited. Government should step in and make up for the spending that the private sector is not supplying even if this means government borrowing and debt. Tax increases and spending cuts during a period of depressed demand will depress it even further.”

Niall Ferguson, noted Harvard economics professor: “the effect of Keynesian policy must be to drive interest rates up.” April 2009 Writing two and one half years later, Krugman finds that average inflation in the USA over the period had been 2,5%, omitting food and energy, it has been 1.4% . He acknowledges “it is possible that printing money can cause inflation, if it leads to higher spending and a boom. But until then, ‘no boom, no inflation’. ” Increases in national debt are no problem “as long as it grows more slowly than the sum of inflation and economic growth”. The national debt of Japan is over 200% of GDP and the USA national debt during WWII was a much higher percent of GDP than it is today.

Managing National Debt In both Europe and the USA it became fashionable during

Dr. JIM LEONTIADES Cyprus International Institute of Management

The Euro zone Krugman concedes that the overall debt burden can be a problem, but the problem is different for different countries. Greece is an example of the sort of profligacy and corruption that has to be addressed directly. There is no option here but to cut back on public spending and to reduce debt. But Greece is an exception in Europe. The average debt of the other Euro zone peripheral countries was in fact manageable and declining before the crisis. The austerity policies prescribed by the

Euro zone in a recession reduces demand, making things worse. An additional problem unique to the Euro zone is that member countries no longer control their own currency. They are not able to support their own sovereign debt on the open market by printing money in the manner of USA, UK and Japan. It is difficult for them to engage in debt financed government spending, to make up for the drop in private spending as prescribed by Keynes/Krugman. Not surprisingly, the author has little sympathy for current Euro zone officials (which he refers to as “austerians”) and their policies. Reducing national debt is central to their approach. The view as, expressed by several EuroZone officials, is that reducing national debt for countries in this situation increases confidence. Krugman calls this “the confidence fairy”. It is not supported by the evidence. His Keynesian approach for dealing with the current financial crisis is almost the exact opposite of that currently followed by the troika. Krugman believes there is a time when addressing the issue of debt reduction is appropriate but that time is not when countries are on the brink of recession. The present financial crisis provides a test of the two views, a social laboratory. Some years from now, we will have a better idea of which is the better prescription, though it will then be too late for many. *Paul Krugman, End This Depression Now! (W.W. Norton & Co, NY, NY. 2012).

Cyprus can copy Ireland’s success, or follow Greece into abyss As the negotiations with the Troika representatives start in earnest to decide on the price tag of the bailout that Cyprus will eventually request from EU funds/organisations and the IMF, the nation as a whole should realize that there are two strategies to follow, Ireland or Greece. If the Irish model is decided, Cyprus will need to come clean with the situation at its banks and reveal once and for all the extent of damage in the books of Bank of Cyprus and Cyprus Popular Bank. The three ills of the two largest banks are: losses sustained on holdings of Greek and (to a lesser extent) Cyprus sovereign debt, non-performing loans in Greece and Cyprus, and liquidity issues in the event of possible flight of deposits out of the two banks. The price tag for the rescue of the banks will then be added to the financing needs of the Cyprus government until 2014 to reach the bailout amount, which is seen by some analysts at EUR 15 bln. Cyprus will then be asked by the Troika to identify and submit a plan on how it intends to pay the EUR 450 mln annual interest on the EUR 15 bln loan assuming that the interest on the loan will be 3%. It’s not the Troika that will decide how the money will be saved. This is the task of the government which will submit a precise and complete plan on how it will raise money and put its house in order, but the Troika will comment on the methodology and assumptions used by the government to reach its estimates and targets. Obviously, Cyprus needs to save the money in order to pay the loan interest and if the Irish model is adopted, then the government will need to scrap 13th salary for civil servants and those employed at semi-governmental organizations like Cyta,

EAC and municipalities, scrap the majority of allowances paid to civil servants, proceed with 20% across the board annual pay cuts and perhaps also curtail pensions. The same pay adjustments will also need to be implemented at the banks and maybe the work-week hours will increase, and other measures taken to bring the civil servants and bank employees closer to the pay and working conditions prevailing in the private sector.

SHAVASB BOHDJALIAN Certified Investment Advisor and CEO of Eurivex Ltd.

If Cyprus decides to follow the Greek model, then this will mean the submission of a plan with over-ambitious revenue assumptions based on tax hikes and lack of action in curtailing government expenses, which will mean the need for additional measures, missed targets, uncertainty leading to no investment, job losses and more misery. It’s ironic that Ireland agreed to the EU bailout six months after Greece and having completed and met all its targets, it is on course to return to markets on schedule while Greece has missed to implement 210 out of 300 targets, has not done even one large privatization, has not merged the over 1500 government agencies, has not reduced the number of civil servants and generally during the past two years has done absolutely nothing to correct the situation.

Greek Premier Antonis Samaras said Greece is in depression similar to the 1929 depression that affected the US. Has Mr. Samaras done anything since he came to power? Absolutely not. Instead of delivering results and submitting a concrete plan on how the new government will correct the situation, Samaras is asking for more time, more money and more resources from the EU and IMF. Under normal circumstances, the government of Cyprus should seize the initiative and use the bailout as the scapegoat to push through a massive revamp of the civil service, cut down on waste, red-tape and force the various departments to increase productivity, cut down expenses and lessen the burden on the state finances. After all, the government could do all the necessary reforms and blame it on the “Troika” and get away with it by telling the people that it’s either pain now, prosperity later as Ireland and Portugal are showing the way – or misery in small doses which will eventually lead to no salaries and no jobs as in Greece. I believe the people of Cyprus, who showed remarkable resilience and managed to recover from the Turkish invasion catastrophe of 1974 will choose the Irish model rather than follow the Greek model which only leads to destruction, poverty and misery on a large scale. (Eurivex Ltd. is a Cyprus Investment Firm, authorized and regulated by CySEC, license #114/10 and approved by the Cyprus Stock Exchange to act as Nomad for listings on the Emerging Companies Market. The views expressed above are personal and do not bind the company and are subject to change without notice)

July 25 - 31, 2012


Growing Up in the Eurozone A rapid and large increase of government debt has been a general phenomenon in the advanced countries since the 2007-09 crisis: for the first time, the average debt/GDP ratio for OECD countries has surpassed 100%. Fiscal consolidation will weigh on growth prospects for two generations to come, and the welfare state as we have known it in Europe since World War II will have to be transformed, especially given a rapidly aging population. But the eurozone debt crisis has distinctive features. Most importantly, while the average debt/GDP ratio is no higher than it is in other advanced countries, and consolidation efforts started earlier, the eurozone has been mired in a severe crisis of confidence for the past two years. This points to a systemic dimension of the crisis that cannot be reduced to profligate behavior by fiscal sinners. Indeed, the Greek crisis exposed three main flaws in the monetary union itself. First, the system lacked effective arrangements to align fiscal and other economic policies. As long as enforcement of fiscal discipline is entrusted to an intergovernmental body, the problem is bound to reappear, limiting the credibility of common budgetary rules. Moreover, financial markets underpriced private and sovereign credit risks, in the implicit belief that no one would fail, and that all debts would somehow be made whole, implying weak market discipline on borrowers. Finally, once the crisis hit, leading to a re-pricing of risks in financial markets, the need to avoid an economic and financial meltdown compelled governments to support aggregate demand and make private liabilities whole. But the disconnection between centralized monetary and decentralized fiscal powers de facto impeded the full use of monetary instruments to meet monetary and financial shocks. That left individual eurozone members exposed to brutal pressure by financial markets at a time when excessive private debt was turned into unsustainable public debt. Suddenly, the eurozone had become a straightjacket. And so it has remained: budgets are cut, growth falters, and periphery countries must engineer substantial real exchange-rate devaluations to regain competitiveness and close their external deficits. Core countries, meanwhile, argue that they can do little to strengthen aggregate demand and relieve pressure on their

partners, even as the periphery’s agony is dragging the core into recession, owing to its dependence on peripheral export markets. And, indeed, recent data point to a rapidly worsening economic environment in Germany, where the trade surplus has shrunk dramatically in recent months. Over the past two years, fundamental changes in the eurozone’s economic governance have aimed at rectifying the monetary union’s founding flaws. And, along the way, an intergovernmental process has become communitarian. Key powers over the implementation of common policy guidelines have been entrusted to the European Commission, and the European Council has limited its own ability to reject Commission recommendations by requiring a qualified majority to change them.

BY STEFANO MICOSSI Director-General of Assonime, a business association and private think tank in Rome

Strong economic-governance rules, however, will not suffice. A fully functioning monetary union also requires a central bank that is free to act as required to confront liquidity and confidence shocks, some mutualization of government debts, and centralized control over fiscal policy. Moreover, it must have centralized banking supervisory policies, with strong powers to manage bank crises and to liquidate banks that cannot be rescued. All of this can be achieved only gradually, as Europe moves to a fully-fledged federal union. Whether the eurozone will survive in the meantime will be determined by the European Council’s capacity to establish intermediate arrangements that can halt the crisis and restore trust among its members. At their meeting at the end of June, European leaders acknowledged for the first time the multiple dimensions of the crisis, accepting that austerity – putting everyone’s house in order – will not suffice. Accordingly, new joint policy initiatives will address economic growth, banking union, and liquidity. Moreover, European leaders have placed these new policies with-

in a coherent longer-term framework that may also include “the issuance of common debt.” Likewise, the European Council has agreed on a new “Compact for growth and jobs” that identifies a specific European dimension of growth policies, mainly integration of energy, transport, communications, and services, together with higher infrastructure investment. What is notably missing is recognition of the need for greater flexibility on fiscal-consolidation efforts. As the Commission has requested, countries with stronger fiscal positions should consider slowing their consolidation efforts in order to avoid aggravating the recession. But, in order to preserve investors’ confidence, some eurozone countries must strike a difficult balance between austerity and overkill, which would have been facilitated had the European Council issued a clear statement that letting automatic stabilizers work, while remaining on track with structural budget targets, fully complies with European Union obligations. Moreover, a greater share of the adjustment burden must fall on Germany. Recent fairly generous wage agreements in Germany will help, but are not enough; there is also a need to boost domestic demand. More aggressive liberalization of the bloated banking system, network services (especially in energy and transport), and public procurement may contribute significantly over time to raising domestic investment and incomes. The sizeable investments required to make up for the loss of nuclear energy may contribute more immediate stimulus. All of this should not be seen as a concession, but as part of the obligations undertaken by eurozone governments to address excessive imbalances. Now more than ever, Germany must be persuaded that without its contribution in reviving growth and correcting external imbalances, the eurozone faces prolonged depression and certain collapse. Stefano Micossi is Director-General of Assonime, a business association and private think tank in Rome, Chairman of the board of CIR Group, and a member of the board of the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels. © Project Syndicate, 2012.

Will Governmental Folly Now Allow for a Cyber Crisis? When the financial crisis of 2008 hit, many shocked critics asked why markets, regulators, and financial experts failed to see it coming. Today, one might ask the same question about the global economy’s vulnerability to cyber-attack. Indeed, the parallels between financial crises and the threat of cyber meltdowns are striking. Although the greatest cyber threat comes from rogue states with the capacity to develop extremely sophisticated computer viruses, risks can also come from anarchistic hackers and terrorists, or even from computer glitches compounded by natural catastrophe. A few security experts have voiced great alarm, including, most recently, Jonathan Evans, the head of the British Security Service (MI5). By and large, however, few leaders are willing to compromise growth in the tech sector or the Internet in any significant way in the name of a threat that is so amorphous. Instead, they prefer to establish relatively innocuous working groups and task forces. It is difficult to overstate the dependence of modern economies on large-scale computer systems. But imagine if one day a host of key communications satellites were incapacitated, or the databases of major financial systems were erased. Experts have long identified the electricity grid as the most acute vulnerability, since any modern economy would collapse without power. True, many skeptics argue that with reasonable low-cost prophylactic measures, large scale cyber-meltdowns are highly implausible, and that doom-mongers overstate the worst-case scenarios. They say that the ability of cyber-terrorists and blackmailers to take the global economy to the brink, as in the 2007 Bruce Willis movie Die Hard 4, is utterly fictional. It is difficult to judge who is right, and there are important experts on both sides of the debate. But there do seem to be an uncomfortable number of similarities between the political economy of cyberspace regulation and of financial regulation. First, both cyber-security and financial stability are extremely complex topics with which government regulators can hard-

ly keep up. Industry remuneration for experts is far in excess of any public-sector salary, and the best minds are continually bid away. As a result, some argue that the only solution is reliance on self-regulation by the software industry. One hears this argument for many modern industries, from big food to big pharma to big finance. Second, like the financial sector, the tech industry is enormously influential politically through contributions and lobbying. In the United States, all presidential candidates must make pilgrimages to Silicon Valley and other tech centers to raise

BY KENNETH ROGOFF Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University

money. Excessive financial-sector influence was, of course, a root cause of the 2008 meltdown and remains deeply implicated in today’s continuing eurozone mess. Third, with slowing growth in advanced economies, information technology seems to hold the moral high ground, just as finance did until five years ago. And crude attempts by governments to enforce regulation are likely to prove ineffective in protecting against catastrophe, while all too effective in strangling growth. In both cases – financial stability and cyber security – the risk of contagion creates a situation in which a wedge can form between private incentives and social risks. Admittedly, progress in the technology sector overall often produces huge social-welfare gains, which arguably outstrip those produced by all other sectors in recent decades. But, just as with nuclear power plants, progress can go awry in the absence of good regulation. Finally, the greatest risks come from arrogance and igno-

rance, two human characteristics at the heart of most financial crises. Recent revelations about the super-viruses “Stuxnet” and “Flame” are particularly disconcerting. These viruses, apparently developed by the US and Israel to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program, embody a level of sophistication far beyond anything previously seen. Both are deeply encrypted and difficult to detect once inside a computer. The Flame virus has the capacity to take over a computer’s peripherals, record Skype conversations, take pictures through a computer’s camera, and transmit information via Bluetooth to any nearby device. If the world’s most sophisticated governments are developing computer viruses, what guarantee is there that something won’t go awry? How can we be sure that they won’t “escape” and infect a much broader class of systems, or be adopted for other uses, or that future rogue states or terrorists won’t find a way to turn them on their creators? No economy is more vulnerable than the US, and it is arrogance to believe that US cyber superiority (to all except perhaps China) provides it with impenetrable security from attack. Unfortunately the solution is not so simple as just building better anti-virus programs. Virus protection and virus development constitute an uneven arms race. A virus can be just a couple hundred lines of computer code, compared to hundreds of thousands of lines for anti-virus programs, which must be designed to detect wide classes of enemies. We are told not to worry about large-scale cyber meltdowns, because none has occurred, and governments are being vigilant. Unfortunately, another lesson of the financial crisis is that most politicians are congenitally incapable of making difficult choices until risks actually materialize. Let us hope that we are lucky for a while longer. Kenneth Rogoff is Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, and was formerly chief economist at the IMF. © Project Syndicate, 2012.

July 25 - 31, 2012


The First World’s Fiscal Follies The world’s advanced economies remain divided over whether to strengthen budget balances in the short term or to use fiscal policy to promote recovery. Those worried about the short-run contractionary effects on the economy call the first option “austerity”; those concerned about long-term sustainability and moral hazard call it “discipline.” Either way, the debate is akin to asking whether it is better for a driver to turn left or right; depending on where the car is, either choice might be appropriate. Likewise, when an economy is booming, the government should run a budget surplus; when it is in recession, the government should run a deficit. To be sure, Keynesian macroeconomic policy lost its luster mainly because politicians often failed to time countercyclical fiscal policy – “fine tuning” – properly. Sometimes fiscal stimulus would kick in after the recession was already over. But that is no reason to follow a destabilizing pro-cyclical fiscal policy, which piles spending increases and tax cuts on top of booms, and cuts spending and raises taxes in response to downturns. Pro-cyclical fiscal policy worsens the dangers of overheating, inflation, and asset bubbles during booms, and exacerbates output and employment losses during recessions, thereby magnifying the swings of the business cycle. Yet many politicians in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the eurozone seem to live by it. They argue against fiscal discipline when the economy is strong, only to become deficit hawks when the economy is weak. Consider the positions taken over the last three decades by some American politicians. In his 1980 campaign and again in 1981, a period of recessions, President Ronald Reagan urged immediate action to reduce the national debt. In 1988, however, as the economy approached the peak of the business cycle, candidate George H.W. Bush was unconcerned about budget deficits, even though the national debt was rapidly approaching three times the level that it had been under Reagan. “Read my lips: no new taxes,” Bush famously declared. Predictably, Bush and the US Congress finally summoned the political will to raise taxes and rein in spending growth at precise-

ly the wrong moment – in 1990, just as the US was entering a recession. Although the timing of the legislation was poor, the action was courageous: pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) budgeting rules and other reforms deflected government finances back onto a path that eliminated the budget deficit by the end of the decade. But, three years later – at the start of the most robust recovery in American history – all Republican congressmen voted against President Bill Clinton’s 1993 legislation to maintain Bush’s spending caps, PAYGO, and tax increases. Even after seven years of strong growth, at the peak of the business cycle in 2000, with unemployment at record lows, George W. Bush based his 2000 campaign on a platform of large tax cuts.

By JEFFREY FRANKEL Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University

After recovery from the 2001 recession had gotten underway, and the inherited budget surpluses had nonetheless turned to record deficits, the Bush administration pushed through a second round of tax cuts in 2003, and maintained a rate of spending growth that was triple the rate under Clinton. As Vice President Richard Cheney put it, “Reagan proved that deficits don’t matter.” These policies were maintained for another five years, as another $4 trillion was added to the national debt. Predictably, when the worst recession since the Great Depression hit in 2007-2009, politicians were reluctant to launch an adequate fiscal response, owing to the huge deficits and debts that the government had already been running. Republicans suddenly re-discovered the evil of budget deficits. They opposed Obama’s initial fiscal stimulus in February 2009, and succeeded in blocking further efforts when its effects petered out two years later. In my view, the government spending cut-

backs of the last two years are the most important reason why the economic recovery that began in June 2009 subsequently stalled in 2011. Here, then, are three generations of politicians who favored fiscal expansion during booms (1982-1989, 1992-2000, 2002-2007) and austerity during recessions (1980, 1981, 1990, 2008-09). A similar unfortunate cycle – large fiscal deficits when the economy is already expanding, followed by fiscal contraction in response to a recession – has also been visible in the UK and the eurozone in recent years. Turning left every time the road goes right, and vice versa, is worse than switching policies randomly. But the pattern is understandable: when the economy is booming, there is no political support for painful spending cuts or tax increases. There is a hole in the roof, but the sun is shining. Then, when the thunderstorms roll in, sinners suddenly get religion and proclaim the necessity of reforming – just when it is most difficult to fix the problem. Historically, it used to be developing countries whose dysfunctional political systems produced pro-cyclical fiscal policies. Almost all of them showed a positive correlation between government spending and the business cycle from 1960 to 1999. But things have changed. About a third of emerging-market countries’ governments – including authorities in China, Chile, Malaysia, South Korea, Botswana, and Indonesia – managed to reverse the historical correlation. They took advantage of the 2003-2007 boom to strengthen their budget positions, saving up for a rainy day. They were thus in a good position to use fiscal stimulus when the global recession hit them in 2008-2009. In fact, a majority of the governments that have pursued countercyclical fiscal policies since 2000 are in emerging-market or developing countries. They figured out how to achieve countercyclical fiscal policy during precisely the decade when so many politicians in “advanced countries” forgot. © Project Syndicate, 2012.

The East Asian Miracle Revisited HONG KONG – Almost two decades ago, the World Bank published its landmark study The East Asian Miracle, analyzing why East Asian economies grew faster than emerging markets in Latin America, Africa, and elsewhere. These economies, the study concluded, achieved high growth rates by getting the basics right, promoting investment, nurturing human capital, and opening up to export manufacturing. But that was not all. The World Bank also acknowledged, grudgingly, that governments intervened – systematically and through multiple channels – to foster development, including in specific industries in specific locations via subsidies, tax incentives, and financial repression. In the intervening years, particularly after the Asian Financial Crisis, the pro-market, anti-intervention Washington Consensus fell out of favor. A “New Institutional Economics” (NIE) gained ground by filling in the gaps left by mainstream models, which ignored the central importance of institutions in managing the change and uncertainty that affect resource allocation and social choice. Indeed, in light of today’s Great Recession and the current European debt crisis, the main question remains that of the role of the state in promoting growth and development. It was the collapse of the Soviet bloc’s planned economies that spurred both free-market hubris and the realization that institutions matter. But it was China’s ability to sustain rapid economic growth for three decades that necessitated a revisionist look at statist capitalism. Nobel laureate economist Douglass North argued early on that human society created institutions to deal with information asymmetry, but that their creations immediately gave rise to the problem of how to constrain such institutions to fulfill their intended objectives. In 2000, Oliver E. Williamson classified four levels of social analysis for institutions – informal institutions, customs, traditions, norms, and religion; formal institutions with rules governing property rights, social order, the judiciary, and the bureaucracy; governance structures and their alignment to economize on transaction costs; and decentralized decisionmaking in resource allocation (the domain of neo-classical economics). According to Williamson, NIE is primarily concerned with the

economic and political ramifications of formal rules and governance structures. But, for many emerging economies, it is the embeddedness of informal rules, norms, and beliefs, and their slowness to change, that prevents many economies’ breakthrough to more advanced, knowledge-based growth. Francis Fukuyama’s new book The Origins of Political Order attempts to address this problem. He examines the emergence of three categories of political institutions – the state, the rule of law, and accountable government, the latter two being constraints on the state that prevent it from becoming despotic.


Fukuyama argues that patrimonialism – defined as the natural human propensity to favor family and friends – as the bane of the rule of law and accountable government. But, while patrimonialism may well be the main barrier to countries’ advance to middle-class democracy – and a key reason for autocratic states’ fragility – it may also be a more general feature of all political and economic systems. Witness the current debate about whether governments in advanced economies have been captured by financial interests – a question that Gillian Tett poses in a recent review article in Foreign Affairs. “Should governments rein in finance to crush the elite,” she asks, “or should they simply accept income differentials and financial savings as the inevitable price of dynamic societies?” This is not a trivial question, given the role of unabated inequality in growing social unrest and even revolution around the world. Indeed, the real surprise is that protests such as “Occupy Wall Street” have resulted in so little change, suggesting that institutions, once established, are “sticky” in preserving the status quo.

This is particularly relevant to Asia’s growth story. Former British colonies like India and Malaysia inherited common law and institutional checks and balances, but several today confront institutional decay, rising corruption, and creeping patrimonialism. Other economies, such as China, are seeking ways to establish the rule of law by strengthening the institutional framework within the framework of one-party rule. Both Fukuyama and North conclude that strong state-led economies can be accountable, but become fragile should the ruling elites fail to respond to popular majorities and to global norms of behavior and governance. North argues that competition is a key force driving adaptive efficiency among institutions. A basic insight of NIE is that measuring transaction costs in various factor and product markets can reveal inefficiencies and barriers to better performance. An examination of transaction costs in global and domestic supply chains would reveal the extent to which rent-seeking activities and policy distortions deter the emergence of competitive markets. For advanced economies, the study of Williamson’s levels two and three – formal institutions and their governance – can lead to important insights. But, for emerging markets in Asia and elsewhere, we are convinced that the study of informal institutions, behavior, and norms offers a better understanding of the challenges of managing growth and performance. Simply put, in many emerging markets, it is not a lack of understanding of international best practices that holds back economic performance. Rather, it is the conflict between these practices and traditional or domestic social relations and practices that entrench vested interests opposed to change. Andrew Sheng, President of the Fung Global Institute and an adviser to China’s Banking Regulatory Commission, is a former deputy head of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Xiao Geng is Director of Research at the Fung Global Institute. © Project Syndicate, 2012.

July 25 - 31, 2012

12 | WORLD

Developed or developing? l Athens

stocks on review for downgrade to emerging market, while hedge funds looking at Greece

π¡VESTMENT ANALYSIS By Carolyn Cohn Investors are criss-crossing the increasingly smudged line between emerging and developed markets as the euro zone crisis challenges traditional perceptions of a safe investment. This blurring of distinctions was illustrated last month by index compiler MSCI’s surprise decision to review Greece’s stock market for downgrade to emerging market status, usually assigned to poorer countries offering lower liquidity and less open access to trade. Although Greece remains a member of the euro zone, multiple credit rating downgrades, a debt restructuring, shrinking stock prices and the persistent risk it will be forced to exit the bloc and sharply devalue its currency have given it a risk profile similar to those of many developing countries. That being so, many investors may prefer to take their chances in traditional emerging markets such as South Africa or the Philippines. “This is a huge factor driving emerging markets — it’s obviously driven in part by the change in the risk in developed markets,” said Jerome Booth, head of research at Ashmore Investment Management, which manages $66 bln in emerging market assets. Reflecting the increasingly broad range of investors who are seeking out emerging market investments, Booth said central banks and sovereign wealth funds made up 40% of Ashmore’s assets under management. Inflows into emerging market bond funds totalled $23 bln in the first half, while inflows into emerging equity funds totalled $14 bln, according to data from Boston-based fund tracker EPFR. Meanwhile, outflows from developed Europe equity funds

Australia producer prices tame in Q2, low CPI seen Australia’s producer prices rose by a little more than expected last quarter as a softer currency pushed up import costs, yet annual growth in prices still slowed to a two-year low in a promising sign for keeping consumer inflation contained. Prices at the final stage of production (PPI) rose 0.5% in the second quarter, just above forecasts of a 0.3% increase. Annual inflation braked to 1.1%, from 1.4% in the first quarter and the lowest since mid-2010. The relatively benign outcome should be mirrored in the more important consumer price index (CPI) report due this week, which is expected to show the lowest pace of underlying inflation in more than a decade. If forecasters are right, annual underlying inflation will be the lowest since 1998 at 1.9%, beneath the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) long-term target band of 2 to 3%. That is one reason financial markets are still pricing in at least 50 basis points of further cuts in the RBA’s 3.5% cash rate. Growth in the headline CPI was seen slowing to just 1.3%, a long way down from last year’s peak of 3.6%. After easing in both May and June, the central bank held steady this month to assess the impact of the moves and the uncertain outlook for the global economy. “We think even a low underlying inflation result, by itself, will probably not be enough to spur the RBA to lower the cash rate in August,” said Ivan Colhoun, head of Australian economics at ANZ. “That said, it would increase the probability of further rate cuts down the track, and we still consider that further modest easing of 50 basis points will be forthcoming by the end of the year.” Still, there were some promising signs for inflation with domestic producer prices rising only a slight 0.3% in the quarter. The annual pace of growth almost halved to 0.9%, the lowest since late 2009. Prices for consumer goods edged up by 0.3%, while annual growth dropped off sharply to 0.4%. That would be welcomed by the RBA which has been worried that homegrown inflation was proving stubborn.

were $22 bln over the same period. Outflows from developed Europe debt funds totalled a smaller $1 bln, but followed a $29 bln exodus in 2011. DEBT SWITCH To mop up the increased demand, emerging market borrowers are likely to issue record amounts of debt — totalling close to $300 bln — this year. The uncertain outlook for the euro zone, whose policymakers are struggling to convince markets they can get a grip on the sovereign debt crisis now in its third year, have pushed up borrowing costs for leading economies such as Spain and Italy. Spain’s 10-year debt is trading close to the 7% danger level at which other euro zone countries including Greece were forced to seek aid, while Italy’s borrowing costs are nearing 6%. By contrast, junk-rated Turkey recently issued dollar debt at a yield of less than 6%. For a core euro zone borrower like Germany, 10-year yields are puny, at less than 1.5%. “The theme that has been in place for a while is to go underweight more mature developed economies such as the United States, UK and the core euro zone and use that underweight to invest in markets that have better long-term fundamentals,” said Peter Wilson, managing director of First International Advisors, a subsidiary of Wells Fargo. Wilson favours local currency debt in markets such as Mexico, South Korea, South Africa and the Czech Republic. Whereas Greece was kicked out of global bond indices benchmarked by many investors two years ago, South Africa will join Citi’s world bond index later this year. Foreign holdings of local government bonds have nearly tripled in Mexico and nearly doubled in South Africa since 2007, according to JP Morgan. Emerging market companies are also looking more attrac-

tive than in the past, paying higher dividends and showing stronger earnings growth. Fund managers say they have been seeing many more RFPs — requests for proposals — from institutional investors such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds which are looking to start buying emerging market assets. NEW FRONTIERS Moving further down the traditional risk profile, demand has also been huge for the small supply of new debt from socalled frontier markets. “Yields show African bonds are perceived to be less risky than some of the European ones right now,” Ravi Bhatia, sovereign ratings analyst at Standard & Poor’s, told a briefing last week. “A lot of people are trying to get out of Europe and into emerging market assets.” Emerging markets still carry their own risks, however, not least because as they become more sophisticated, their trade, banks and market prices are increasingly linked to the rest of the globe. Emerging stocks fell more than 20% last year and the giant BRIC economies - Brazil, Russia, India and China are starting to falter. But for those who really want to take a punt, there is always the opportunity to go the other way. Broker Exotix, which specialises in frontier debt, started covering Greek, Portuguese and Cypriot debt this year, and recommends buying Greece’s restructured bonds. As Greece does not feature in any emerging debt indices, some specialist fund managers may be constrained by their mandates from buying it, but it is starting to appeal to riskloving investors. “A lot of ... emerging market-type hedge funds invest in Greek bonds today,” said Julian Adams, CEO of Londonbased hedge fund firm Adelante Asset Management. “It’s taken a while for the mentality to shift.”

Growth in health spending grinding to a halt Growth in health spending reversed a long-term trend of rapid increase and either slowed or fell in real terms in most OECD countries in 2010, driven by cuts among governments imposing austerity budgets. Overall health spending grew by nearly 5% a year in real terms in the 34 countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) between 2000-2009, but this was followed by zero growth in 2010. In its Health Data 2012 report, the OECD also said preliminary figures for a limited number of countries suggest there was little or no growth in health spending in 2011. “The halt in total health spending in 2010 was driven by a fall of 0.5% in public spending for health, following an increase of over 5% per year in 2008 and 2009,” the report said. It found that while government health spending tended to be maintained at the start of the economic crisis, cuts really began to bite in 2010. This was most evident in European countries hardest hit by recession, such as Ireland, Greece and Estonia. In Ireland, cuts in government spending drove total health spending down by 7.6% in 2010, compared with an average yearly growth rate of 8.4% between 2000 and 2009. In Greece, OECD estimates suggest total health spending fell by 6.5% in 2010 after a yearly growth rate of more than 6% on average since 2000. In Iceland, health spending fell by 7.5% in 2010, and in Estonia it dropped by 7.3%, driven by reductions in both public and private spending. The OECD said most of the health spending cuts in Ireland were made through cuts in wages or fees paid to professionals and pharmaceutical companies, as well as through reductions in the number of health workers. Estonia cut administrative costs in the ministry of health and also reduced prices of publicly reimbursed health services. Investment plans have also been put on hold in a number of

countries, including Estonia, Ireland, Iceland and the Czech Republic, while other countries have been seeking efficiency gains through mergers of hospitals or ministries, or by accelerating the move from caring for patients in hospitals towards more out-patient care and day surgery. More generic drugs are also being used by a number of countries, the OECD said, and some other measures have been introduced to make people pay more out of their own pockets. Outside of Europe, health spending growth slowed in 2010, to about 3% in the United States, Canada and New Zealand. Growth remained at more than 8% in Korea. As a result of the zero growth in health spending across OECD countries in 2010, the percentage of GDP devoted to health stabilised or declined slightly in most countries. Health spending accounted for 9.5% of GDP on average across OECD countries in 2010, versus 9.6% in 2009. The United States spent by far the highest proportion of its GDP in health, at 17.6%, followed by the Netherlands at 12% and France and Germany on 11.6%. The lowest proportions devoted to health were in Mexico, at 6.2% and Turkey on 6.1%. In Japan, the share of spending allocated to health has increased substantially in recent years to 9.5%, up from 7.6% in 2000.


∆∂∆∞ƒ∆∏, 25 π√À§π√À, 2012

¢ÂÓ Î¿ÓÂÈ ›Ûˆ ÛÙ· ̤ÙÚ· Ë ∆ÚfiÈη ™˘ÌÌfiÚʈÛË Ù˘ ∫‡ÚÔ˘ Û‡Ìʈӷ Ì ÙȘ ‰ËÌÔÛÈÔÓÔÌÈΤ˜ Û˘ÛÙ¿ÛÂȘ Ù˘ ∫ÔÌÈÛÈfiÓ, ‹Ù·Ó ÙÔ ¯ıÂÛÈÓfi Ì‹Ó˘Ì· ÙÔ˘ ÎÏÈÌ·Î›Ô˘ Ù˘ ∆ÚfiÈη˜ ÚÔ˜ ÙËÓ Î˘‚¤ÚÓËÛË Οι εκπρÞσωποι τησ ΤρÞικασ (Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή, Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα και ∆ιεθνέσ ΝοµισµατικÞ Ταµείο) είχαν χθεσ µια πρώτη εισ βάθοσ συζήτηση µε την Υπουργική Επιτροπή για τα θέµατα Οικονοµίασ. Την Επιτροπή απαρτίζουν οι Υπουργοί Οικονοµικών Βάσοσ Σιαρλή, Εργασίασ και Κοινωνικών Ασφαλίσεων Σωτηρούλα Χαραλάµπουσ, Εµπορίου, Βιοµηχανίασ και Τουρισµού Νεοκλήσ Συλικιώτησ και ο ΥφυπουργÞσ παρά τω Προέδρω Τίτοσ Χριστοφίδησ. Ùπωσ προέκυψε µέσα απÞ την συνάντηση η ΤρÞικα φαίνεται να ζήτησε την δέσµευση τησ κυβέρνησησ για µείωση του ελλείµµατοσ στο 2,5% το 2012, στο 0,5% 2013 και µηδενικÞ συντελεστή για το 2014. Πάντωσ δεν φαίνεται να έγινε καµία αλλαγή στισ γραµµέσ τησ ΤρÞικασ για αύξηση του ορίου συνταξιοδÞτησησ στο 65ο έτοσ, αλλά και κατάργηση του θεσµού τησ ΑυτÞµατησ Τιµαριθµικήσ Αναπροσαρµογήσ (ΑΤΑ). Οι τεχνοκράτεσ τησ ΤρÞικα είναι αποφασισµένοι να θίξουν και τη µείωση του κατώτατου µισθού, τουλάχιστον κατά 15% απÞ τα σηµερινά επίπεδα των 909 ευρώ, θέση την οποία υποστηρίζουν µε θέρµη και οι εργοδοτικέσ οργανώσεισ. Ùσον αφορά τον εταιρικÞ φÞρο, στÞχοσ τησ ΤρÞικα είναι η αύξηση του, κάτι το οποίο δεν αποδέχεται η κυβέρνηση, αφού θεωρεί Þτι θα διαταράξει τα θεµέλια τησ κυπριακήσ οικονοµίασ. Ωσ αντιστάθµισµα για τη διατήρηση του εταιρικού φÞρου στο 10%, η κυβέρνηση θα προτείνει την αύξηση του συντελεστή του ΦΠΑ απÞ το 17% στο 20% κάτι το οποίο συζητεί και η ΤρÞικα.

∫∞∆∞£∂™∏ ∞¶√æ∂ø¡ Σε δηλώσεισ του µετά την ολοκλήρωση τησ συνάντησησ, ο ΚυβερνητικÞσ ΕκπρÞσωποσ Στέφανοσ Στεφάνου είπε Þτι η ΤρÞικα «κατέθεσε τισ δικέσ τησ εκτιµήσεισ αναφορικά µε την κυπριακή οικονοµία, στη βάση και των στοιχείων που συγκέντρωσε κατά την πρώτη επίσκεψή τησ στην Κύπρο».

ΠρÞσθεσε Þτι απÞ πλευράσ τησ Κυβέρνησησ, «καταθέσαµε τισ απÞψεισ µασ σε διάφορα ζητήµατα που αφορούν την κυπριακή οικονοµία και προβήκαµε σε έναν πρώτο σχολιασµÞ των εκτιµήσεων τησ ΤρÞικασ, στη βάση των θέσεων τησ Κυβέρνησησ». Είπε ακÞµη Þτι έγινε ένασ «αρκετά βαθύσ διάλογοσ» και Þτι η συζήτηση µε την ΤρÞικα θα συνεχιστεί την ερχÞµενη Παρασκευή. Απαντώντασ σε ερώτηση, ο κ. Στεφάνου επανέλαβε Þτι «το βασικÞ πρÞβληµα που αντιµετωπίζει η κυπριακή οικονοµία είναι η µεγάλη έκθεση των κυπριακών τραπεζών στην ελληνική οικονοµία µε Þλεσ τισ παρενέργειεσ και τα προβλήµατα που δηµιουργεί αυτή η έκθεση στην κυπριακή οικονοµία». Ερωτηθείσ εάν υπάρχει χάσµα στισ εκτιµήσεισ των δύο πλευρών, είπε Þτι «αυτÞ θα το δούµε µε την ολοκλήρωση του διαλÞγου και τησ συζήτησησ, διÞτι, Þπωσ έχω πει, είχαµε την ευκαιρία να συζητήσουµε διάφορα ζητήµατα και διάφορεσ πτυχέσ που έχουν να κάµουν µε την κυπριακή οικονοµία, Þµωσ αυτή η συζήτηση δεν έχει ολοκληρωθεί και θα τη συνεχίσουµε την ερχÞµενη Παρασκευή». «Πολύ πιθανÞν, την ερχÞµενη Παρασκευή να έχουµε µια εκτίµηση αναφορικά µε το πού

βρίσκεται η ΤρÞικα σε ζητήµατα που αφορούν στην οικονοµία», είπε. Ερωτηθείσ σχετικά µε το ρωσικÞ δάνειο, ο ΕκπρÞσωποσ είπε Þτι δεν υπάρχει οτιδήποτε νεÞτερο σε σχέση µε αυτÞ το θέµα. Τησ συνάντησησ µε την Υπουργική Επιτροπή, προηγήθηκε κοινή συνάντηση τησ ΤρÞικασ µε τον ΥπουργÞ Οικονοµικών Βάσοσ Σιαρλή και το ∆ιοικητή τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ Πανίκο ∆ηµητριάδη.

∆ƒ∞¶∂∑∂™ Την ∆ευτέρα το κλιµάκιο τησ ΤρÞικα συµµετείχε σε ευρεία σύσκεψη στο Υπουργείο Οικονοµικών, Þπου έλαβαν µέροσ οι ανώτεροι διευθυντέσ του Υπουργείου Φαίδωνασ Καλοζώησ, Ανδρέασ ΤρÞκκοσ και Ανδρέασ Χαραλάµπουσ, καθώσ και ο Ανώτεροσ ∆ιευθυντήσ του Τµήµατοσ Οικονοµικών Ερευνών τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ Γιώργοσ Συρίχασ. ΣτÞχοσ των δεύτερου κύκλου των νέων συναντήσεων, Þπωσ ανακοίνωσε αργÞτερα το Υπουργείο Οικονοµικών, είναι: Η περαιτέρω συζήτηση αναφορικά µε το µακροοικονοµικÞ πλαίσιο, τισ τάσεισ στα δηµÞσια οικονοµικά, τισ ανάγκεσ ενδυνάµωσησ τησ κεφαλαιουχι-

κήσ βάσησ του τραπεζικού συστήµατοσ, καθώσ και των ενδεικνυÞµενων µέτρων πολιτικήσ στο δηµÞσιο και τραπεζικÞ τοµέα. Προηγήθηκε, σύσκεψη υπÞ τον ΥπουργÞ Οικονοµικών Βάσο Σιαρλή. Σήµερα η ΤρÞικα θα συναντηθεί µε τισ συνδικαλιστικέσ και τισ εργοδοτικέσ οργανώσεισ, ενώ αύριο Πέµπτη θα τα πει µε τον υποψήφιο για την Προεδρία τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ Νίκο Αναστασιάδη, και αργÞτερα θα έχουν συνάντηση µε το ΑΚΕΛ, ενώ την Παρασκευή θα δει το Σύνδεσµο Εγκεκριµένων Λογιστών. Σε Þτι αφορά τισ επαφέσ στην Κεντρική Τράπεζα, το πρωί τησ ∆ευτέρασ τεχνοκράτησ του κλιµακίου έγινε δεκτÞσ απÞ τον ∆ιοικητή Πανίκου ∆ηµητριάδη και άρχισαν το διάλογο για το κÞστοσ ανακεφαλαιοποίησησ των τραπεζών. Με βάση τα µέχρι στιγµήσ γνωστά δεδοµένα, η Λαϊκή Τράπεζα χρειάζεται περίπου δυÞµιση δισεκατοµµύρια ευρώ και η Τράπεζα Κύπρου 500 εκατοµµύρια. ΩστÞσο, το ποσÞ αναµένεται να αυξηθεί εξαιτίασ του µεθοδολογικού χειρισµού των επισφαλών δανείων απÞ πλευράσ ΤρÞικα µε την Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα και το ∆ιεθνέσ ΝοµισµατικÞ Ταµείο να έχουν διαφορετική προσέγγιση απÞ τη ΚοµισιÞν η οποία θεωρεί Þτι ένα µέροσ των δανείων αυτών µπορεί να ανακτηθεί µε την πώληση των ακινήτων. Ùπωσ πληροφορούµαστε, ο τελικÞσ λογαριασµÞσ για τισ ανάγκεσ των τραπεζών αναµένεται να πλησιάσει τα έξι δισεκατοµµύρια ευρώ ποσÞ µε το οποίο συµφωνούν και οι εκτιµήσεισ του Οίκου Fitch, ενώ στα 11 δισ φαίνεται να βάζει τον πήχη τησ κεφαλαιακήσ στήριξησ του τραπεζικού συστήµατοσ η ΤρÞικα. Στο επίκεντρο θα βρεθεί και το θέµα των αξιογράφων, για το οποίο πληροφορίεσ αναφέρουν Þτι άρχισε απÞ την Κεντρική Τράπεζα έρευνα στην Τράπεζα Κύπρου, και συνεχίστηκε στη Λαϊκή Τράπεζα. Ο δεύτεροσ κύκλοσ επαφών του κλιµακίου τησ ΤρÞικα ολοκληρώνεται την Παρασκευή 27 Ιουλίου.

∆Ô ‰ËÌfiÛÈÔ ¯Ú¤Ô˜ ·Ê‹ÓÂÈ ÂÎÙÂıÂÈ̤ÓÔ ÙÔÓ Úfi‰ÚÔ ÃÚÈÛÙfiÊÈ· Την ώρα που η κυβέρνηση του ∆ηµήτρη ΧριστÞφια προσπαθεί να πείσει Þτι η προσφυγή τησ Κύπρου στον ΕυρωπαϊκÞ ΜηχανισµÞ Στήριξησ, γίνεται αποκλειστικά για τα προβλήµατα ανακεφαλαιοποίησησ των κυπριακών τραπεζών, την αφήνει πλήρωσ εκτεθειµένη η εκτίναξη του δηµÞσιου χρέουσ κατά έντεκα ποσοστιαίεσ µονάδεσ µέσα σε ένα µÞλισ χρÞνο. Σύµφωνα µε τα στοιχεία που δηµοσιοποίησε η Ευρωπαϊκή Στατιστική Υπηρεσία, το δηµÞσιο χρέοσ τησ Κύπρου εκτινάχθηκε κατά το πρώτο τρίµηνο του 2012 στο 74,6% σε σύγκριση µε 63,6% την αντίστοιχη περυσινή περίοδο. Σε απÞλυτουσ αριθµούσ, αυτÞ αντιστοιχεί σε 13,2 δισ ευρώ έναντι 11,1 δισ ευρώ Þπου

βρισκÞταν πέρυσι. Η αύξηση αυτή ήταν η δεύτερη µεγαλύτερη ετήσια αύξηση στην Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση, πίσω απÞ την Πορτογαλία. Αξίζει να σηµειωθεί Þτι το δηµÞσιο χρέοσ Þταν αναλάµβανε τα ηνία του κράτουσ ο ∆ηµήτρησ ΧριστÞφιασ βρισκÞταν στο 48%. Το δηµÞσιο χρέοσ αναµένεται να εκτιναχθεί περαιτέρω το επÞµενο διάστηµα απÞ τη βοήθεια που θα λάβει η Κύπροσ απÞ τον ΕυρωπαϊκÞ ΜηχανισµÞ Στήριξησ, ωσ απÞρροια των διαβουλεύσεων που γίνονται µε την ΤρÞικα, και αυτÞ θα προκαλέσει µεγάλο πονοκέφαλο κυρίωσ στον νέο ένοικο του Προεδρικού Μεγάρου µετά το Φεβρουάριο του 2013. Για την ώρα το κυπριακÞ χρέοσ παραµένει

σε χαµηλÞτερα επίπεδα απÞ αυτά τησ Ευρωζώνησ και τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ένωσησ, που βρίσκεται στο 88,2% και 83,4% αντίστοιχα. Μετά την Πορτογαλία και την Κύπρο, βρίσκεται η Ιρλανδία, Þπου το δηµÞσιο χρέοσ αυξήθηκε κατά 8,2 ποσοστιαίεσ µονάδεσ. Στην Ελλάδα το «κούρεµα» των οµολÞγων που κατείχαν οι ιδιώτεσ επενδυτέσ οδήγησε σε µια µείωση του συνολικού δηµÞσιου χρέουσ κατά 20 µονάδεσ του ΑΕΠ την ίδια περίοδο, ενώ η µείωση έφτασε στισ 33 µονάδεσ σε τριµηνιαία βάση δηλαδή το πρώτο τρίµηνο του 2012 σε σχέση µε το τέταρτο τρίµηνο του 2011. Παρά τη δραστική µείωση Ελλάδα εξακολουθεί να κατέχει την πρώτη θέση Þχι µÞνο στην Ευρωζώνη αλλά και στο σύνολο τησ ΕΕ.

Το πρώτο τρίµηνο του 2012 το δηµÞσιο χρέοσ τησ Ελλάδα ήταν 132,4% του ΑΕΠ (280,4 δισ. ευρώ), ενώ ακολούθησαν η Ιταλία µε 123,3%, η Πορτογαλία µε 111,7% και η Ιρλανδία µε 108,5%. Στον αντίποδα, οι χώρεσ τησ Ευρωζώνησ µε το µικρÞτερο χρέοσ ήταν η Εσθονία µε 6,6% του ΑΕΠ και το Λουξεµβούργο µε 20,9%.


25 ΙΟΥΛIOY, 2012

2/14 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ

ªÂ ÙÔ 1,20 ÊÏÂÚÙ¿ÚÂÈ ÙÔ Â˘ÚÒ ™Â ÎÚ›ÛÈÌ· Â›‰· Ë ÈÛÔÙÈÌ›· ∂˘ÚÒ – ¢ÔÏ·Ú›Ô˘ ÂÓ Ì¤Ûˆ ÌÈ·˜ Û˘Ó¯È˙fiÌÂÓ˘ ·‚‚·ÈfiÙËÙ·˜ ÛÙËÓ ˙ÒÓË ÙÔ˘ ∂˘ÚÒ Î·È ‰ÈÛÙ·ÎÙÈÎfiÙËÙ·˜ ÂΠ̤ÚÔ˘˜ Ù˘ Fed ÁÈ· QE3 ¡π∫√™ ªπÃ∞∏§π¢∏™ Foreign Exchange Analyst Email:

Έντονα πτωτικά κινήθηκε και πάλι η ισοτιµία Ευρώ – ∆ολαρίου την εβδοµάδα που µασ πέρασε υποχωρώντασ σε νέο χαµηλÞ δύο ετών και πλησιάζοντασ απειλητικά στα πολύ κρίσιµα επίπεδα του 1.20. Συγκεκριµένα η ισοτιµία απÞ τα 1.2300 τησ περασµένησ εβδοµάδοσ αν και αρχικά ενισχύθηκε µέχρι και τα 1.2330 στην συνέχεια ακολουθώντασ έντονη πτωτική τάση διολίσθησε µέχρι και τα 1.2050 για να διορθώσει στην συνέχεια κοντά στα 1.2100 Þπου και κινείται τισ τελευταίεσ ηµέρεσ. Καταλύτησ για την νέα αυτή ελεύθερη πτώση ήταν και πάλι οι έντονεσ ανησυχίεσ απÞ την ζώνη του Ευρώ και ειδικά απÞ την Ισπανία η οποία συνεχίζει να βρίσκεται στο µάτι του κυκλώνα. Οι αποδÞσεισ των ισπανικών spreαds σηµείωσαν και πάλι νέο ρεκÞρ καθώσ πληθαίνουν οι εκτιµήσεισ Þτι η χώρα δεν θα καταφέρει τελικά να αποφύγει την πλήρη ένταξη σε ένα πακέτο διάσωσησ. Η περιφέρεια τησ Μούρθια έγινε η δεύτερη ισπανική περιφέρεια που ανακοίνωσε Þτι σχεδιάζει να προσφύγει στο κυβερνητικÞ ταµείο των 18 δισ. ευρώ για να στηρίξει τα οικονοµικά τησ ακολουθώντασ το παράδειγµα τησ Βαλένθια τησ περασµένησ εβδοµάδασ. ΤαυτÞχρονα ισπανικά µέσα αναφέρουν Þτι και άλλεσ περιφέρειεσ τησ χώρασ εξετάζουν να κάνουν χρήση του

µηχανισµού. Οι ισπανικέσ αρχέσ ανακοίνωσαν την ∆ευτέρα Þτι απαγορεύουν το short selling για τρεισ µήνεσ, εξαιτίασ τησ µεταβλητÞτητασ στην αγορά. Είχε προηγηθεί η ανακοίνωση των ιταλικών αρχών για απαγÞρευση του short selling σε µετοχέσ του τραπεζικού και ασφαλιστικού κλάδου για ολÞκληρη την εβδοµάδα. Την ίδια στιγµή η Ελλάδα επανέρχεται και πάλι στο προσκήνιο µετά απÞ δηµοσίευµα του Spiegel Þτι το ∆ΝΤ δε θα συµµετάσχει σε περαιτέρω βοήθεια εάν δεν εκπληρωθούν οι στÞχοι του προγράµµατοσ. Ο ΓερµανÞσ υπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών, Wolfang Schaeuble προειδοποίησε εξάλλου σε συνέντευξη του το Σαββατοκύριακο, Þτι η Ελλάδα πρέπει να υπερδιπλασιάσει τισ προσπάθειεσ για να συµµορφωθεί µε τουσ Þρουσ διάσωσησ που επιβάλλονται απÞ τουσ διεθνείσ πιστωτέσ. Την Κυριακή επίσησ ο υπουργÞσ Οικονοµίασ τησ χώρασ, Philipp Roesler δήλωσε Þτι έχει “µεγάλεσ αµφιβολίεσ” για το αν η Ελλάδα θα µπορέσει να εκπληρώσει τισ υποχρεώσεισ που έχει αναλάβει, ενώ εκτίµησε Þτι εφÞσον η Ελλάδα αποτύχει να εκπληρώσει τισ υποχρεώσεισ τησ οι διεθνείσ πιστωτέσ τησ δεν θα πρέπει να απελευθερώσουν νέεσ δÞσεισ απÞ το πρÞγραµµα. Ένασ φαύλοσ κύκλοσ θα λέγαµε στην Ευρωζώνη ο οποίοσ δείχνει ατελείωτοσ µε τον χρÞνο να µοιάζει µε αιώνεσ. Την ίδια ώρα στην άλλη άκρη του ατλαντικού ο πρÞεδροσ τησ Fed, συνεχίζει τα «ναι µεν αλλά» Þσο αφορά τον νέο κύκλο ποσοτικήσ χαλάρωσησ. Στην οµιλία του σε επιτροπή τησ Γερουσίασ, ο πρÞεδροσ Ben Bernanke επανέλαβε Þτι η αµερικανική κεντρική τράπεζα παραµένει σε ετοιµÞτητα να παρέµβει εφÞσον χρειαστεί για

να στηρίξει την οικονοµική ανάκαµψη χωρίσ να δώσει περισσÞτερεσ διευκρινήσεισ. Απαντώντασ ωστÞσο σε ερωτήσεισ των µελών τησ επιτροπήσ για τισ επιλογέσ τησ Fed στο ενδεχÞµενο που αποφασίσει να παρέµβει για να τονώσει την οικονοµία ο Bernanke περιέγραψε κάποιεσ πιθανέσ δράσεισ τησ κεντρικήσ τράπεζασ. Μεταξύ άλλων αναφέρθηκε σε ένα νέο πρÞγραµµα αγορών οµολÞγων – κάτι που συχνά αναφέρεται σαν ποσοτική χαλάρωση – καθώσ και σε άλλεσ επιλογέσ Þπωσ η χρήση των ειδικών διευκολύνσεων τησ τράπεζασ για την παροχή δανείων ή η τροποποίηση τησ γλώσσασ που χρησιµοποιεί η τράπεζα “για να περιγράψει τα µελλοντικά τησ σχέδια Þσον αφορά τα επιτÞκια”. Η Fed θα µπορούσε επίσησ να ακολουθήσει το παράδειγµα τησ ΕΚΤ και να κÞψει το επιτÞκιο του 0,25% για τισ τράπεζεσ που κρατούν περίπου 1,6 τρισ. δολ. στην κεντρική τράπεζα σε πλεονάζοντα αποθεµατικά. Την ίδια στιγµή έκανε λÞγο για υψηλή αβεβαιÞτητα η οποία επηρεάζει αρνητικά την εµπιστοσύνη και το οικονοµικÞ κλίµα επιβραδύνοντασ την οικονοµική δραστηριÞτητα, ενώ προειδοποίησε Þτι διατηρούνται οι καθοδικοί κίνδυνοι για τισ οικονοµικέσ προοπτικέσ. Μετά απÞ τα πιο πάνω εκτιµούµε πωσ το QE3 έχει κλειδώσει απλώσ παραµένει άγνωστοσ ο χρÞνοσ υλοποίησησ του. Μπορεί τεχνικά η πτωτική τάση τησ ισοτιµίασ να εµφανίζεται άκρωσ ενισχυµένη µε τα επίπεδα του 1.20 εάν και εφÞσον σπάσουν να ανοίξουν τον δρÞµο για νέα χαµηλά 5ετίασ. ΑπÞ την άλλη Þµωσ Þσο πλησιάζει το QE3 είναι άκρωσ παρακινδυνευµένο να αγνοηθεί ο άµεσοσ και βίαιοσ αντίκτυποσ που θα έχει στην ισοτιµία µε το που θα ανακοινωθεί απÞ την Fed ο νέοσ κύκλοσ ποσοτικήσ χαλάρωσησ.

ª·˘ÚÔÁÈ¿ÓÓ˘: ∞ÈÛÈfi‰ÔÍÔÈ ·ÏÏ¿ Î·È Ú·ÏÈÛÙ¤˜ Τα αποτελέσµατα των διµερών συζητήσεων που είχε µε Þλα τα κράτη µέλη, συµπεριλαµβανοµένησ και τησ Κροατίασ που θα ενταχθεί την 1η Ιουλίου του 2013, σχετικά µε το Πολυετέσ ∆ηµοσιονοµικÞ Πλαίσιο (Π∆Π) τησ περιÞδου 20142020, παρουσίασε χθεσ στο Συµβούλιο Υπουργών Γενικών Υποθέσεων, ο Προεδρεύων ΥφυπουργÞσ Ευρωπαϊκών Υποθέσεων Ανδρέασ Μαυρογιάννησ. Στη συνεδρία του Συµβουλίου, που ήταν η πρώτη επί Κυπριακήσ Προεδρίασ, ο κ. Μαυρογιάννησ παρουσίασε στουσ οµÞλογούσ του και τισ προτεραιÞτητεσ, κυρίωσ αναφορικά µε την προώθηση τησ ανάπτυξησ και τησ απασχÞλησησ. Απαντώντασ αν είναι περισσÞτερο αισιÞδοξοσ µετά τισ διαβουλεύσεισ που είχε µε Þλα τα κράτη µέλη, ο κ. Μαυρογιάννησ απάντησε Þτι «είµαι αισιÞδοξοσ, αλλά και ρεαλιστήσ». ΑισιÞδοξοσ γιατί, Þπωσ είπε, στη διάρκεια των διµερών επαφών που είχε Þλεσ οι χώρεσ µετακινήθηκαν απÞ τισ αρχικέσ τουσ θέσεισ, ενώ τον διαβεβαίωσαν πωσ

θέλουν να ληφθεί απÞφαση στη διάρκεια τησ Κυπριακήσ Προεδρίασ. Επιπλέον, συνέχισε, τώρα γνωρίζουµε τισ θέσεισ Þλων αλλά και τισ «κÞκκινεσ γραµµέσ» κάθε χώρασ. Είµαι, ωστÞσο, και ρεαλιστήσ γιατί είναι προφανέσ Þτι η διαπραγµάτευ-

¶√§À∂∆∂™ ¢∏ª√™π√¡√ªπ∫√ ¶§∞π™π√ ση θα είναι εξαιρετικά δύσκολη, αφού οι διαφορέσ µεταξύ των διαφÞρων χωρών είναι ακÞµη πολύ µεγάλεσ, τÞνισε. Ο ΥφυπουργÞσ τÞνισε Þτι η Προεδρία θα συνεχίσει τισ διµερείσ διαβουλεύσεισ και τισ επÞµενεσ βδοµάδεσ µέχρι

την άτυπη Σύνοδο του Συµβουλίου Γενικών Υποθέσεων, στισ 30 Αυγούστου στην Κύπρο, ενώ στη συνέχεια και µε βάση τισ συζητήσεισ θα προχωρήσει σε επικαιροποίηση του πλαισίου τησ ∆ανικήσ Προεδρίασ, ώστε να ξεκινήσει η τελική φάση τησ διαπραγµάτευσησ. Ο κ. Μαυρογιάννησ ανέφερε, «ΣτÞχοσ µασ είναι η εµβάθυνση και η συνοχή, θέλουµε να στείλουµε µήνυµα ελπίδασ στουσ Ευρωπαίουσ πολίτεσ, επισήµανε, τονίζοντασ Þτι η δηµοσιονοµική εξυγίανση είναι πολύ σηµαντική και αναγκαία, αλλά πρέπει να συνοδεύεται απÞ µέτρα για την ανάπτυξη και την απασχÞληση». Τέλοσ, ο Επίτροποσ για τον ΠρουπολογισµÞ Γιάνουσ ΛεβαντÞβσκι εξέφρασε την ελπίδα Þτι το Π∆Π θα υιοθετηθεί στη διάρκεια τησ Κυπριακήσ Προεδρίασ, ενώ αναφέρθηκε στην ένταξη τησ Κροατίασ, επισηµαίνοντασ Þτι η προσχώρηση τησ χώρασ αυτήσ θα απαιτήσει πρÞσθετεσ δαπάνεσ στον κοινοτικÞ προϋπολογισµÞ, οι οποίεσ στη διάρκεια τησ επταετίασ 2014-2020 θα φτάσουν τα 9,9 δισ. ευρώ.


Cyta: ¢ÈÔÚÈÛÌfi˜ ÕÚ. ƒÈÚ‹

Σταθεροποιητικά, κυρίωσ, κινήθηκε χθεσ το Χρηµατιστήριο Αξιών Κύπρου, µετά τισ µεγάλεσ ζηµιέσ, πέρα του 5%, που κατέγραψε στην πρώτη χρηµατιστηριακή συνάντηση τησ εβδοµάδασ. Παρά τα αρχικά κέρδη γύρω στο 1,7%, ο ΓενικÞσ ∆είκτησ έκλεισε την Τρίτη στισ 117,13 µονάδεσ και µε οριακέσ απώλειεσ τησ τάξησ του 0,04%. Αντίθετα, ο ∆είκτησ FTSE/CySE 20 παρουσίασε µικρή αύξηση σε ποσοστÞ 0,22%, κλείνοντασ στισ 45,42 µονάδεσ. Ο ηµερήσιοσ Þγκοσ συναλλαγών περιορίστηκε στα 326.361 ευρώ. Το µεγαλύτερο επενδυτικÞ ενδιαφέρον προσέλκυσαν οι τίτλοι τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου µε Þγκο συναλλαγών αξίασ 128.468 ευρώ (πτώση 0,44% - τιµή κλεισίµατοσ 0,225 ευρώ), τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ µε 94.548 ευρώ (άνοδοσ 0,57% - τιµή κλεισίµατοσ 0,176 ευρώ), τησ Λαϊκήσ Τράπεζασ µε 62.717 (χωρίσ µεταβολή - τιµή κλεισίµατοσ 0,072 ευρώ), τησ ∆ήµητρα Επενδυτικήσ µε 20.462 (άνοδοσ 1,20% - τιµή κλεισίµατοσ 0,252 ευρώ) και τησ Blue Island µε 5.611 ευρώ (πτώση 5,3%- τιµή κλεισίµατοσ 0,179 ευρώ).

Το διορισµÞ του Άριστου Ριρή στη θέση του Ανώτατου Εκτελεστικού ∆ιευθυντή τησ Cyta στη θέση του κ. Φώτη Σαββίδη, αποφάσισε το ∆ιοικητικÞ Συµβούλιο τησ Cyta. H θητεία του κ. Σαββίδη ολοκληρώνεται στισ 31 Οκτωβρίου και ο νέοσ εκτελεστικÞσ διευθυντήσ αναλαµβάνει καθήκοντα απÞ 1η Νοεµβρίου. H απÞφαση τησ Cyta θα σταλεί για έγκριση στο ΥπουργικÞ Συµβούλιο και εάν εγκριθεί τÞτε θα υπογραφεί πενταετέσ συµβÞλαιο απÞ την 1η Νοεµβρίου.

™ÙȘ 593,57 ÌÔÓ¿‰Â˜ ÙÔ Ã∞ Με χαµηλÞ τζίρο, ο οποίοσ δεν ξεπέρασε τα 17 εκ. ευρώ, ο ΓενικÞσ ∆είκτησ του Χ.Α. περιορίστηκε σε ισχνά κέρδη χθεσ Τρίτη, αποτυγχάνοντασ να ανακτήσει το επίπεδο των 600 µονάδων. ΠροερχÞµενοσ απÞ τισ µεγάλεσ απώλειεσ τησ συνεδρίασησ τησ ∆ευτέρασ, ο Γ∆ κινήθηκε ανοδικά στο µεγαλύτερο µέροσ των συναλλαγών, χωρίσ ωστÞσο να καταφέρει να ξεπεράσει τισ 593,57 µονάδεσ (υψηλÞ ηµέρασ). Στο ταµπλÞ, ο ΓενικÞσ ∆είκτησ έκλεισε στισ 586,64 µονάδεσ, ενισχυµένοσ σε ποσοστÞ 0,10%. Εν τω µεταξύ η Ελλάδα είναι απίθανο να είναι σε θέση να αποπληρώσει τα χρέη τησ και µια νέα αναδιάρθρωση ενδεχοµένωσ να είναι αναγκαία, αναφέρουν τρεισ Ευρωπαίοι αξιωµατούχοι στο Reuters, σηµειώνοντασ Þτι το κÞστοσ θα πρέπει να το επωµιστούν η Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα και οι κυβερνήσεισ τησ Ευρωζώνησ. Οι αξιωµατούχοι επισηµαίνουν ταυτÞχρονα Þτι η τρÞικα θα βρει κατά την επίσκεψη τησ στην Αθήνα Þτι το ελληνικÞ πρÞγραµµα έχει εκτροχιαστεί. Οι αξιωµατούχοι τησ τρÞικασ, αναφέρει το πρακτορείο, θα ολοκληρώσουν την ανάλυση τουσ για τη βιωσιµÞτητα του χρέουσ τον επÞµενο µήνα, αλλά οι πηγέσ αναφέρουν Þτι τα συµπεράσµατα έχουν ήδη γίνει εµφανή.

Cyprus Fiduciary Association

Ανακοίνωση Με την παρούσα ανακοίνωση θα θέλαµε να ενηµερώσουµε το κοινό ότι το ∆ιοικητικό Συµβούλιο του Cyprus Fiduciary Association Ltd προτίθεται να υποβάλει αίτηση προς τον Υπουργό Εµπορίου, Βιοµηχανίας και Τουρισµού για απάλειψη της λέξης «Ltd» από την ονοµασία του οργανισµού µας. Για οποιεσδήποτε ενστάσεις και/ή περαιτέρω πληροφορίες παρακαλώ όπως αποταθείτε στα γραφεία του Εφόρου Εταιρειών και Επίσηµου Παραλήπτη το αργότερο µέχρι την Παρασκευή, 17 Αυγούστου 2012.

25 ΙΟΥΛIOY, 2012


ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | 3/15

∂ÈΛӉ˘ÓË ·fiÊ·ÛË Î. ª·‡ÚÔ˘

ª˘ÛÙÈΤ˜ o‰ËÁ›Â˜ Ô˘ Ï‹ÙÙÔ˘Ó ·¯¿·ÚÔ˘˜ ∫Ù‹Ì·Ù· Ù· ÔÔ›· ·ÁÔÚ¿ÛÙËÎ·Ó Î·È ‰ÂÓ ÏËÚÔ‡Ó ·˘Ù¤˜ ÙȘ Ӥ˜ ··ÈÙ‹ÛÂȘ, ÂÓÒ ÏËÚÔ‡Û·Ó ÙȘ ÚÔËÁÔ‡ÌÂÓ˜, ı· ¤¯Ô˘Ó ·ÛÊ·ÏÒ˜ οıÂÙË Ì›ˆÛË Ù˘ ·Í›·˜ ÙÔ˘˜ Î·È ¿Ú· fiÛÔ ·Í›˙ÂÈ ÂÓfi˜ ·¯¿·ÚÔ˘ Û‹ÌÂÚ· ÔÏ›ÙË Ë ÂÚÈÔ˘Û›· ÙÔ˘ ∞¡∆ø¡∏™ §√π∑√À ∞ÓÙÒÓ˘ §Ô›˙Ô˘ F.R.I.C.S. & ™˘ÓÂÚÁ¿Ù˜ §Ù‰, ∂ÎÙÈÌËÙ¤˜ ∞ÎÈÓ‹ÙˆÓ & ¢È·¯ÂÈÚÈÛÙ¤˜ ŒÚÁˆÓ ∞Ó¿Ù˘Í˘

Μέχρι τώρα αγαπητοί µασ αναγνώστεσ ξέραµε Þτι χωράφια σε αγροτικέσ περιοχέσ µπορούσαν να τύχουν ανάπτυξησ µε µια κατοικία εάν είχαν τισ απαιτούµενεσ παραµέτρουσ. Στο παρÞν άρθρο θα ασχοληθούµε µε µια πρÞσφατη περίεργη διαφοροποίηση των κανονισµών, που διαφοροποιεί την Þλη κατάσταση, προκαλώντασ αλυσιδωτέσ παρενέργειεσ σε επικίνδυνη µορφή. Τώρα, µε οδηγία του Υπουργείου Εσωτερικών η παραχώρηση τέτοιασ άδειασ θα εξετάζεται µε πολύ πιο αυστηρÞ τρÞπο, σε σηµείο απÞρριψησ αίτησησ, για να περιορίσει έτσι την συνεχή και άναρχη ανάπτυξη. Με τα νέα δεδοµένα, για να µπορέσει ένασ αιτητήσ να ανεγείρει την κατοικία του σε ένα χωράφι και εκτÞσ απÞ τισ µέχρι σήµερα γνωστέσ προϋποθέσεισ θα πρέπει (κατά πληροφÞρηση απÞ την περιρέουσα ατµÞσφαιρα!!): (i) Ο αιτητήσ να είναι ντÞπιοσ, δηλαδή να προέρχεται/να κατοικεί στο χωριÞ εκείνο που ζητά την ανάπτυξη. (ii) Ο αιτητήσ δεν θα πρέπει να έχει άλλη κατοικία. (iii) Θα πρέπει το τεµάχιο αυτÞ να είναι πλησίον τησ ανάπτυξησ/του χωριού (που ερµηνεύεται απÞ τον ∆ιευθυντή τησ Πολεοδοµίασ απÞσταση Þχι πέραν του 1-1,5 χλµ. απÞ το χωριÞ).

(iv) Να έχει ικανοποιητική υδατοπροµήθεια και άλλα που ίσωσ δεν γνωρίζουµε. Τα σχÞλια µασ είναι: - ∆εν θα έπρεπε τέτοια βασική αλλαγή να δηµοσιεύεται σε Þλη τησ την λεπτοµέρεια, για να γνωρίζουν οι νέοι και υφιστάµενοι επενδυτέσ εκ των προτέρων και να µην παρασύρονται απÞ επιτήδειουσ; - Γιατί δεν υπάρχει γραπτή εγκύκλιοσ στα Επαρχιακά Γραφεία Πολεοδοµίασ, για να γνωρίζουν οι λειτουργοί που εξετάζουν τισ αιτήσεισ και πληροφορούν το κοινÞ ανάλογα; - Κτήµατα τα οποία αγοράστηκαν και δεν πληρούν αυτέσ τισ νέεσ απαιτήσεισ, ενώ πληρούσαν τισ προηγούµενεσ, θα έχουν ασφαλώσ κάθετη µείωση τησ αξίασ τουσ και άρα πÞσο αξίζει ενÞσ “αχάπαρου” σήµερα πολίτη η περιουσία του; - Σε ποια κατάσταση θα βρεθούν οι τράπεζεσ ιδιαίτερα αυτήν την δύσκολη περίοδο για Þλουσ; Εάν ο ιδιοκτήτησ υποθήκευσε το κτήµα του µε µια Α αξία και τώρα αξίζει σίγουρα λιγÞτερο, δεν θα απαιτήσει ο χρηµατοδÞτησ νέεσ εξασφαλίσεισ; Και εάν δεν έχει, τι θα απογίνει το χαρτοφυλάκιο τησ τράπεζασ ωσ αξία; ΑυτÞ είναι χειρÞτερο απÞ το 50% κούρεµα των Ελληνικών οµολÞγων και τώρα των τραπεζιτικών αξιογράφων. - Οι αξίεσ πλέον γίνονται προσωπικέσ µια και που ένα κτήµα θα αξίζει Α για τον ντÞπιο που µπορεί να κτίσει (αλλά έχει σπίτι), Β αξία για τον ντÞπιο, ο οποίοσ δεν έχει σπίτι και Γ για τον ξένο ο οποίοσ δεν µπορεί να κτίσει καθÞλου. - Κτήµατα που βρίσκονται πλησίον του χωριού θα αυξηθούν κάθετα οι αξίεσ τουσ (ανάλογα µε την απÞσταση απÞ το χωριÞ). Και

πωσ µετριέται η απÞσταση απÞ το χωριÞ του 1-1.5 χλµ., σε ευθεία γραµµή ή βάσει του µήκουσ πρÞσβασησ απÞ το χωριÞ; - Είναι δεδοµένο Þτι ακÞµη και οι ντÞπιοι που θέλουν να ανεγείρουν την κατοικία τουσ και δεν έχουν δικÞ τουσ κτήµα υπÞ αυτέσ τισ προϋποθέσεισ, θα αναγκαστούν να αγοράσουν την ανάλογη γη πιο ακριβά – άρα αύξηση κÞστουσ απÞκτησησ στέγησ. - Και άλλα. ΚαλÞ µεν το µέτρο αλλά στο τέλοσ-τέλοσ, πÞσα αποµακρυσµένα χωριά έχουν αναβιώσει απÞ τισ εξοχικέσ και άλλεσ κατοικίεσ εκτÞσ ορίου ανάπτυξησ απÞ ξένουσ (και ντÞπιουσ); Άρα καταδίκη τέτοιων χωριών σε µείωση του ρυθµού ανάπτυξησ. ∆εν γνωρίζουµε κυρία Υπουργέ των Εσωτερικών εάν είστε γνώστησ αυτήσ τησ νέασ εξέλιξησ (η απÞφαση ελήφθη πριν τησ ανάληψησ τησ θητείασ σασ), αλλά δεν είναι

¶Ú¤ÂÈ Ó· ·ÔÌ·ÎÚ˘Óı› Ô Î›Ó‰˘ÓÔ˜ ηٿÚÚ¢Û˘ Oι βραχυπρÞθεσµεσ προοπτικέσ τησ Κυπριακήσ οικονοµίασ δεν είναι ευοίωνεσ, σύµφωνα µε τισ προβλέψεισ του Κέντρου Οικονοµικών Ερευνών (ΚΟΕ) του Πανεπιστηµίου Κύπρου, το οποίο εκτιµά Þτι η κυπριακή οικονοµία θα συνεχίσει να βρίσκεται σε ύφεση σε Þλη τη διάρκεια του 2012. Συγκεκριµένα το Κέντρο ανακοίνωσε Þτι για το δεύτερο τρίµηνο του 2012 προβλέπεται Þτι το Ακαθάριστο Εγχώριο ΠροϊÞν (ΑΕΠ) θα µειωθεί κατά -1,8%, ενώ για το τρίτο και τέταρτο τρίµηνο προβλέπεται µικρÞτερη µείωση, -1,4% και -1,2%, αντίστοιχα. Αναφέρει Þτι µείωση του ΑΕΠ για ολÞκληρο το 2012 προβλέπεται στο -1,5% . Οι προβλέψεισ του Κέντρου για το πρώτο και δεύτερο τρίµηνο του 2013 είναι θετικέσ, 0,1% και 1,2%, αντίστοιχα και για το πρώτο εξάµηνο του 2013 προβλέπεται αύξηση του ΑΕΠ κατά 0,6%. Το Κέντρο επισηµαίνει , ωστÞσο, Þτι αυτή η πρÞβλεψη συνοδεύεται µε την επιφύλαξη η πραγµατική αύξηση να είναι µικρÞτερη παρά µεγαλύτερη απÞ την προβλεπÞµενη. Αναφέρει ακÞµα Þτι η συνέχιση τησ οικονοµικήσ ύφεσησ αναµένεται Þτι θα ασκήσει περαιτέρω πίεση στα ήδη παραπαίοντα δηµÞσια οικονοµικά, θα αυξήσει ακÞµα περισσÞτερο την ήδη υψηλή ανεργία, θα

βλάψει την εµπιστοσύνη στισ δυνατÞτητεσ τησ οικονοµίασ να ανακάµψει απÞ την κρίση και θα χειροτερεύσει την αρνητική εικÞνα του χρηµατοπιστωτικού συστήµατοσ. Σύµφωνα µε το Κέντρο η άµεση λήψη µέτρων πολιτικήσ στα πλαίσια γενικÞτερων διαρθρωτικών µεταρρυθµίσεων είναι αναγκαία για να αποµακρυνθεί ο κίνδυνοσ πλήρουσ κατάρρευσησ τÞσο των δηµοσίων οικονοµικών Þσο και του χρηµατοπιστωτικού συστήµατοσ. Εισηγείται δε Þπωσ τα µέτρα και οι µεταρρυθµίσεισ να στοχεύσουν στην αναδιάρθρωση του κρατικού µισθολογίου και του συστήµατοσ κοινωνικών παροχών, στην αύξηση τησ αποτελεσµατικÞτητασ τησ κρατικήσ παραγωγήσ αγαθών, στη βιωσιµÞτητα του συνταξιοδοτικού συστήµατοσ, στην πάταξη τησ φοροδιαφυγήσ και τησ απώλειασ ευηµερίασ απÞ στρεβλωτικούσ φÞρουσ, στην αφαίρεση τησ δυνατÞτητασ ελέγχου των αγορών απÞ συνασπισµένεσ οµάδεσ. Καταλήγοντασ εισηγείται Þπωσ, λÞγω τησ διαφαινÞµενησ προοπτικήσ εξÞδου τησ οικονοµίασ απÞ την ύφεση µεσοπρÞθεσµα, περισσÞτερη έµφαση δοθεί σε µέτρα οικονοµικήσ πολιτικήσ που διορθώνουν τισ στρεβλώσεισ και Þχι σε µέτρα που καταπιέζουν την οικονοµική δραστηριÞτητα και ανάπτυξη.

τώρα η ώρα επιβολήσ νέων περιοριστικών µέτρων στην αγορά ακινήτων. Εδώ γίνεται προσπάθεια αναζωογÞνησησ τησ αγοράσ ακινήτων αντί αυτού να προσθέσουµε νέα αρνητικά; Επειδή υποβάλαµε παρÞµοιο υπÞµνηµα προσ τον προκάτοχο σασ και επειδή καµία αλλαγή/απάντηση/διευκρίνιση εδώθη µέχρι σήµερα, θα αναλάβουµε τον 9/2012 ενέργειεσ ωσ Γραφείο, Þχι τÞσο διÞτι εσείσ ευθύνεστε, αλλά εισ µια αφύπνιση των υφισταµένων σασ που έλαβαν αυτήν την απÞφαση, ίσωσ σε άγνοια του προηγούµενου υπουργού Εσωτερικών για τισ επιπτώσεισ: Η υποστήριξη προσ το άτοµο σασ για εµάσ είναι δεδοµένη στο υπάρχων πÞστο σασ, Þπωσ ήταν και κατά την περίοδο τησ ∆ηµαρχίασ σασ. Σίγουρα δεν έχετε καµία ευθύνη, αλλά τι θα αποµένει άλλο να κάνουµε; Γιατί κυρία Μαύρου να φθάσουµε σε τέτοιο χάλι;


ΚΕΝΗ ΘΕΣΗ Η Κεντρική Τράπεζα της Κύπρου ανακοινώνει ότι δέχεται αιτήσεις για την πλήρωση κενής θέσης:

ΑΝΩΤΕΡΟΥ ΛΕΙΤΟΥΡΓΟΥ ΤΥΠΟΥ Καθήκοντα και Ευθύνες: 1. Συµµετέχει στη διαµόρφωση και ανάπτυξη της επικοινωνιακής πολιτικής της Τράπεζας. 2. Παρακολουθεί και αναλύει σε τοπικό και διεθνές επίπεδο τις εξελίξεις που είναι σχετικές µε τις δραστηριότητες της Τράπεζας. 3. Ασκεί καθήκοντα συντονισµού, επικοινωνίας και επαφής µε τα Μέσα Μαζικής Ενηµέρωσης (ΜΜΕ). 4. Ενηµερώνει τα ΜΜΕ και τους πολίτες σχετικά µε τις δραστηριότητες της Κεντρικής Τράπεζας της Κύπρου, σύµφωνα µε τις εκάστοτε οδηγίες του ∆ιοικητή. 5. Βοηθά στην εποπτεία και στην εύρυθµη λειτουργία της Υπηρεσίας στην οποία θα υπάγεται. 6. Συµµετέχει στην επικοινωνία µε διεθνείς οργανισµούς και άλλες εθνικές κεντρικές τράπεζες στον τοµέα της ενηµέρωσης του κοινού και των ΜΜΕ. 7. Εκτελεί οποιαδήποτε άλλα καθήκοντα του ανατεθούν. Απαιτούµενα Προσόντα: 1. Πανεπιστηµιακός τίτλος στα Οικονοµικά ή Πανεπιστηµιακός τίτλος στα Χρηµατοοικονοµικά ή στις Πολιτικές Επιστήµες ή στις ∆ιεθνείς Σχέσεις νοουµένου ότι περιλαµβάνει αριθµό µαθηµάτων οικονοµικής φύσεως. 2. Μεταπτυχιακός τίτλος ή άλλο ισότιµο επαγγελµατικό προσόν ή διδακτορικός τίτλος σε θέµατα ως καθορίζονται στο σηµείο 1. πιο πάνω. 3. Κατάλληλες γνώσεις σε συναφή µε τα οριζόµενα στο Σχέδιο Υπηρεσίας καθήκοντα ως αναφέρονται πιο πάνω. 4. Προηγούµενη πείρα 8 τουλάχιστον χρόνων σε συναφή µε τα οριζόµενα στο Σχέδιο Υπηρεσίας καθήκοντα. 5. Ισχυρή προσωπικότητα, πρωτοβουλία, αξιοπιστία, ακεραιότητα χαρακτήρα, υπευθυνότητα, εχεµύθεια και ευθυκρισία. 6. Ικανότητα κριτικής σκέψης, ικανότητα εργασίας σε οµάδα. 7. Πολύ καλή γνώση και χρήση προγραµµάτων Η/Υ (εφαρµογών γραφείου) καθώς και εργαλείων διαδικτύου για έρευνα, προβολή και επικοινωνία. 8. Πολύ καλή γνώση της Ελληνικής και Αγγλικής γλώσσας. Γνώση της Γερµανικής ή Γαλλικής ή άλλης γλώσσας, θα θεωρηθεί ως πλεονέκτηµα. Γενικές Πληροφορίες: l Η τελευταία ηµεροµηνία υποβολής αιτήσεων είναι η 27η Ιουλίου, 2012. Για τον τρόπο υποβολής αιτήσεων, τη µισθοδοσία και περαιτέρω πληροφορίες, οι ενδιαφερόµενοι µπορούν να απευθύνονται στην ιστοσελίδα ή στο Τµήµα Ανθρώπινου ∆υναµικού, Οργάνωσης και Μεθόδων, στο ισόγειο της Τράπεζας, στο γραφείο 018 ή στα τηλέφωνα 22714268 / 22714275.

25 ΙΟΥΛΙΟΥ, 2012


4/16 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ


Στισ 25 Ιουνίου 2012 η ισπανική κυβέρνηση υπέβαλε αίτηµα στήριξησ στο ΕυρωπαϊκÞ Ταµείο Χρηµατοπιστωτικήσ ΣταθερÞτητασ µε στÞχο την αναδιάρθρωση και ανακεφαλαιοποίηση του τραπεζικού τησ τοµέα. Οι ισπανικέσ τράπεζεσ επηρεάστηκαν σηµαντικά απÞ τη φούσκα στον τοµέα των ακινήτων και απÞ την ύφεση στην οποία περιήλθε η ισπανική οικονοµία. Το προσχέδιο του προγράµµατοσ αναδιάρθρωσησ και ανακεφαλαιοποίησησ των ισπανικών τραπεζών προβλέπει συγκεκριµένο χρονοδιάγραµµα και διαδικασίεσ που θα πρέπει να ακολουθηθούν. Για να αποφευχθεί οποιοσδήποτε κίνδυνοσ µέχρι την ολοκλήρωση τησ ανακεφαλαιοποίησησ των τραπεζών, θα διατεθεί άµεσα ένα ποσÞ Ευρώ 30δισ το οποίο θα αποδεσµευθεί εφÞσον ζητηθεί επίσηµα απÞ την Τράπεζα τησ Ισπανίασ. Η πρώτη φάση του προγράµµατοσ περιλαµβάνει την πραγµατοποίηση, απÞ εξωτερικούσ συµβούλουσ, τεστ προσοµοίωσησ ακραίων καταστάσεων (stress test) σε 14 τραπεζικούσ οµίλουσ οι οποίοι αντιπροσωπεύουν το 90% του ισπανικού τραπεζικού συστήµατοσ. Τα αποτελέσµατα αυτών των τεστ θα προσδιορίσουν τισ κεφαλαιακέσ ανάγκεσ των τραπε-

ζών έτσι ώστε να ξεκινήσει η διαδικασία ανακεφαλαιοποίησησ και αναδιάρθρωσησ του τραπεζικού τοµέα. Η φάση αυτή αναµένεται να ολοκληρωθεί µέχρι τα µέσα Σεπτεµβρίου 2012. Η δεύτερη φάση του προγράµµατοσ περιλαµβάνει τη µελέτη των σχεδίων ανακεφαλαιοποίησησ που θα παρουσιάσει η κάθε τράπεζα, τη δυνατÞτητα εξεύρεσησ κεφαλαίων απÞ ιδιωτικέσ πηγέσ και την ανάγκη προσφυγήσ σε κρατική στήριξη. Η φάση αυτή θα ολοκληρωθεί µε το τέλοσ τησ διαδικασίασ ανακεφαλαιοποίησησ του τραπεζικού τοµέα και δεν θα ξεπερνά την 30η Ιουνίου 2013. Η προσέγγιση Þσον αφορά την αναδιάρθρωση και ανακεφαλαιοποίηση των τραπεζών θα βασίζεται στην αρχή τησ βιωσιµÞτητασ, του επιµερισµού κÞστουσ και τησ διατήρησησ τησ ανταγωνιστικÞτητασ, µε απώτερο στÞχο την εδραίωση τησ σταθερÞτητασ στο τραπεζικÞ σύστηµα. Για τισ τράπεζεσ οι οποίεσ θα προσφύγουν σε κρατική στήριξη θα πρέπει να ακολουθηθεί συγκεκριµένο σχέδιο αναδιάρθρωσησ. Το σχέδιο θα πρέπει να καταδεικνύει Þτι η µακροπρÞθεσµη βιωσιµÞτητα τησ τράπεζασ µπορεί να εξασφαλιστεί χωρίσ συνέχιση τησ κρατικήσ στήριξησ, δηλαδή τη δυνατÞτητα επιστροφήσ σε κερδοφορία. Θα βασίζεται στο κλείσιµο µη κερδοφÞρων εργασιών, τον διαχωρισµÞ προβληµατικών περιουσιακών στοιχείων, την εξισορρÞπηση των δοµών χρηµατοδÞτησησ (συµπεριλαµβανοµένησ τησ µείωσησ τησ εξάρτησησ παροχήσ ρευστÞτητασ απÞ την Κεντρική Τράπεζα), τη βελτίωση τησ εταιρικήσ διακυ-

βέρνησησ και τη λειτουργική αναδιάρθρωση µέσω ενÞσ πιο ορθολογιστικού δικτύου καταστηµάτων. Το σχέδιο ανακεφαλαιοποίησησ των ισπανικών τραπεζών περιλαµβάνει δύο σηµαντικέσ παραµέτρουσ. Η πρώτη παράµετροσ αφορά τη λήψη µέτρων για ελαχιστοποίηση του κÞστουσ που θα επωµιστούν οι φορολογούµενοι κατά την υλοποίηση των σχεδίων αναδιάρθρωσησ. Σε περίπτωση που κάποια τράπεζα προσφύγει σε κρατική στήριξη οι ζηµιέσ θα καταλογίζονται πρώτα στουσ υφιστάµενουσ µετÞχουσ και ακολούθωσ εθελοντικά ή/και υποχρεωτικά στουσ κατÞχουσ υβριδικών τίτλων και οµολÞγων χαµηλήσ εξασφάλισησ.

Οι ισπανικέσ αρχέσ θα προβούν στισ απαραίτητεσ νοµοθετικέσ τροποποιήσεισ ώστε, σε περίπτωση που δεν επιτευχθεί σε εθελοντική βάση, να καταστεί εφικτή η υποχρεωτική µετατροπή υβριδικών τίτλων και οµολÞγων χαµηλήσ εξασφάλισησ σε µετοχέσ ή η επαναγορά τουσ µε σηµαντική έκπτωση. Η δεύτερη παράµετροσ αφορά τη δυνατÞτητα διαχωρισµού των προβληµατικών περιουσιακών στοιχείων τησ τράπεζασ (ιδιαίτερα δάνεια για αγορά ακινήτων) και τη µεταφορά τουσ σε µια «κακή τράπεζα» (Þχηµα ειδικού σκοπού) για σκοπούσ εξυγίανσησ των ισολογισµών τησ τράπεζασ. Τέλοσ, θα πρέπει να αναφερθεί Þτι η βελτίωση του χρηµατοπιστωτικού τοµέα σχετίζεται και συνδέεται άµεσα µε τη βελτίωση των µακροοικονοµικών ανισορροπιών και των δηµοσίων οικονοµικών τησ Ισπανίασ. Το πρÞγραµµα αναδιάρθρωσησ και ανακεφαλαιοποίησησ του ισπανικού τραπεζικού τοµέα αναφέρει ρητά την επιτακτική ανάγκη υλοποίησησ διαρθρωτικών αλλαγών για διÞρθωση των µακροοικονοµικών ανισορροπιών και την ανάληψη δέσµευσησ για µείωση του υπερβολικού δηµοσιονοµικού ελλείµµατοσ µέχρι το 2014. Οι δεσµεύσεισ αυτέσ θα παρακολουθούνται και θα ελέγχονται αυστηρά απÞ την Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή, σε συνεργασία µε την Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα και την Ευρωπαϊκή Τραπεζική Αρχή, και απÞ το ∆ιεθνέσ ΝοµισµατικÞ Ταµείο. * Οι απÞψεισ που εκφράζονται είναι αυστηρά προσωπικέσ

∞‡ÍËÛË Ù˘ «Ú¿ÛÈÓ˘» ÂÓ¤ÚÁÂÈ·˜ ·fi ∞¶∂ ̤¯ÚÈ ÙÔ 2017 ™ËÌ·ÓÙÈ΋ ·Ó·Ì¤ÓÂÙ·È Ó· Â›Ó·È Ë Û˘ÓÂÈÛÊÔÚ¿ ÙˆÓ ∞Ó·ÓÂÒÛÈÌˆÓ ¶ËÁÒÓ ∂Ó¤ÚÁÂÈ·˜ ÛÙËÓ ·Ú·ÁˆÁ‹ ËÏÂÎÙÚÈ΋˜ ÂÓ¤ÚÁÂÈ·˜ ¤ˆ˜ ÙÔ 2012, ηıÒ˜ Û‡Ìʈӷ Ì ÙȘ ·ÁÎfiÛÌȘ ÂÎÙÈÌ‹ÛÂȘ Ù˘ ¢ÈÂıÓÔ‡˜ ÀËÚÂÛ›·˜ ∂Ó¤ÚÁÂÈ·˜ (IEA) Ë ÂÁηÙÂÛÙË̤ÓË ÈÛ¯‡˜ ı· ÍÂÂÚ¿ÛÂÈ Ù· 230 GW Ùπωσ αναφέρει ο IEA η παγκÞσµια παραγωγή ενέργειασ απÞ ΑΠΕ θα εµφανίζει κατά µέσο Þρο 5,8% αύξηση το χρÞνο, στη διάρκεια του 2011 έωσ το 2017. Ο κλάδοσ διακρίνεται για την σύσταση προγραµµάτων παροχήσ κινήτρων και πτώση του κÞστουσ για πολλέσ χώρεσ, σύµφωνα µε τον ∆ιεθνή ΟργανισµÞ Ενέργειασ. ΑναλυτικÞτερα, η παραγωγή ηλεκτρικήσ ενέργειασ απÞ ΑΠΕ θα πρέπει να αυξηθεί περίπου στα 6.400 TWh µέχρι το 2017 απÞ 4.540 TWh το 2011, σύµφωνα µε την IEA, η οποία παρέχει συµβουλευτικέσ υπηρεσίεσ για θέµατα ενέργειασ σε βιοµηχανικέσ χώρεσ. «Οι αναδυÞµενεσ και οι αναπτυσσÞµενεσ αγορέσ εκτÞσ ΟΟΣΑ οδηγούν την ανάπτυξη µε την συµβολή τουσ να αυξάνεται στα επÞµενα χρÞνια», Þπωσ τονίζει η εκτελεστική διευθύντρια στην IEA, Maria van der Hoeven. ΑπÞ τισ 8 τεχνολογίεσ ΑΠΕ, τα ηλιακά φωτοβολταϊκά θα πρέπει σηµειώ-

νουν ρυθµούσ αύξησησ 27,4% ανά έτοσ, δυναµικÞτητασ 230 GW µέχρι το 2017 απÞ 70 GW το 2011. Ενώ, συνολικά οι ηλιακέσ τεχνολογίεσ θα πρέπει να αντιπροσωπεύουν το 4,9% τησ παγκÞσµιασ παραγωγήσ ενέργειασ απÞ ΑΠΕ µέχρι το 2017. Η αιολική ενέργεια θα πρέπει να κατέχει µεγαλύτερο µερίδιο, στο 16,7% και η δυναµικÞτητα τησ πρέπει να αυξάνεται κατά 15,6% µέχρι το 2017. Το 90% τησ ανάπτυξησ θα προέλθει απÞ τα χερσαία αιολικά πάρκα των οποίων η ισχύσ θα πρέπει τουλάχιστον να διπλασιαστεί στα 460 GW απÞ το 2011 ? 2017. Η βιοενέργεια συµπεριλαµβανοµένου τησ βιοµάζασ, τα βιοαέρια, και τα υγρά βιοκαύσιµα θα πρέπει να αντιπροσωπεύουν το 8,3% το 2017 µε την δυναµικÞτητα τουσ να αυξάνεται κατά 9,6% το χρÞνο στα 119 GW το 2017. Η γεωθερµική ενέργεια αναµένεται να αυξηθεί κατά 4,2% το χρÞνο στα 14 GW το

2017, ωστÞσο θα συνεχίσει να κατέχει µικρÞ µερίδιο στισ ΑΠΕ στο 1,4% µέχρι το 2017.

À‰ÚÔËÏÂÎÙÚÈ΋ ÂÓ¤ÚÁÂÈ· Η υδροηλεκτρική ενέργεια θα εξακολουθήσει να συνεισφέρει στην παραγωγή ενέργειασ απÞ ΑΠΕ µέχρι το 2017, κατά 70%, αλλά η δυναµικÞτητα τησ θα αυξάνεται µε βραδύτερουσ ρυθµούσ ανάπτυξησ, σε σχέση µε άλλεσ τεχνολογίεσ, στο 3,1% ανά έτοσ και στα 1,070 GW µέχρι το 2017. ΠαρÞτι η Κίνα φαίνεται πωσ θα ηγηθεί τησ «ηλιακήσ» επανάστασησ µε 32 GW, ανάλογη ανάπτυξη θα γνωρίσουν οι ΑΠΕ στισ Ηνωµένεσ Πολιτείεσ µε 21 GW, στην Ινδία, την Γερµανία µε 20 GW, την Βραζιλία και την Ιαπωνία µε 20 GW. Η ΙΕΑ εκτιµά επίσησ πωσ 45 κράτη θα προσθέσουν τουλάχιστον 100 MW στο σύστηµα τουσ απÞ φωτοβολταϊκά µέχρι το 2017, απÞ 25 που ήταν το 2011.

25 ΙΟΥΛΙΟΥ, 2012


ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | 5/17

EÓ·ÏÏ·ÎÙÈΤ˜ χÛÂȘ ÁÈ· ÙÔ Ê˘ÛÈÎfi ·¤ÚÈÔ „¿¯ÓÂÈ Ë Î˘‚¤ÚÓËÛË ª¤¯ÚÈ ÙÔ Ù¤ÏÔ˜ ÙÔ˘ 2012 Ú¤ÂÈ Ó· ¤¯Ô˘Ì ÌÚÔÛÙ¿ Ì·˜ Û˘ÁÎÂÎÚÈ̤Ó˜ ÚÔÙ¿ÛÂȘ ÁÈ· ¤Ï¢ÛË Ê˘ÛÈÎÔ‡ ·ÂÚ›Ô˘ ÛÙËÓ ∫‡ÚÔ Â›Ù ·fi ÙÔ πÛÚ·‹Ï, ›Ù Ì ¿ÏÏÔ ÙÚfiÔ, ‰‹ÏˆÛÂ Ô ÀÔ˘ÚÁfi˜ ∂ÌÔÚ›Ô˘, µÈÔÌ˯·Ó›·˜ Î·È ∆Ô˘ÚÈÛÌÔ‡ ¡ÂÔÎÏ‹˜ ™˘ÏÈÎÈÒÙ˘ Αναφέροντασ πωσ η διαδικασία για έλευση φυσικού αερίου βρίσκεται ήδη σε εξέλιξη, ο κ. Συλικιώτησ σηµείωσε πωσ η ∆ΕΦΑ θα ξεκινήσει παράλληλη διαδικασία ανοικτών προσφορών για έλευση φυσικού αερίου µε οποιαδήποτε άλλη µορφή, ώστε να υπάρχει ενώπιον τησ Κυπριακήσ ∆ηµοκρατίασ εναλλακτική λύση µέχρι το τέλοσ του έτουσ, σε περίπτωση ναυαγίου των συζητήσεων µε το Ισραήλ. Σε δηλώσεισ του στο περιθώριο τησ Γενικήσ Συνέλευσησ τησ ∆ηµÞσιασ Επιχείρησησ Φυσικού Αερίου (∆ΕΦΑ), ο κ. Συλικιώτησ είπε πωσ µετά την απÞφαση του Υπουργικού Συµβουλίου του περασµένου µήνα, βρίσκονται σε εξέλιξη οι διεργασίεσ για την έλευση φυσικού αερίου στην Κύπρο ωσ ενδιάµεση λύση, µέχρι την αξιοποίηση των κοιτασµάτων του Οικοπέδου 12, που τοποθετείται χρονικά στα µέσα του 2017. Ο κ. Συλικιώτησ ανέφερε πωσ για πρώτη φορά, υπάρχει µια ολοκληρωµένη εικÞνα για το σχεδιασµÞ και το πώσ µπορεί να αναπτυχθεί το ΟικÞπεδο 12. «ΑπÞ τη στιγµή που ολοκληρώθηκε η επαφή µε τη Noble και έχουµε το δεδοµένο Þτι το συντοµÞτερο που µπορεί να έρθει φυσικÞ αέριο απÞ το ΟικÞπεδο 12 είναι τα µέσα του 2017, µπαίνουµε στη λογική να εξετάσουµε ενδιάµεση λύση». ΠρÞσθεσε πωσ στην ενδιάµεση λύση, η Κυπριακή ∆ηµοκρατία εξετάζει πρώτα απ’ Þλα την επιλογή που έχει ενώπιον τησ για έλευση φυσικού αερίου απÞ το Ισραήλ. «Είναι γνωστÞ Þτι έχουµε συζητήσει, µετά την τελευταία επίσκεψή µου στο Ισραήλ, µε τον οµÞλογÞ µου ΥπουργÞ Ενέργειασ, αλλά και τον ΥπουργÞ Εξωτερικών, τη δυνατÞτητα να µπορέσει να υπάρξει ωσ ενδιάµεση λύση η έλευση φυσικού αερίου απÞ το Ισραήλ», είπε. Ο ΥπουργÞσ Εµπορίου σηµείωσε πωσ έχει συσταθεί η οµάδα που θα κάνει αυτέσ τισ διαπραγµατεύσεισ και στην οποία συµµετέχει και η ∆ΕΦΑ, και η ΑΗΚ και η ΡΑΕΚ,

∆Ô˘ÚÎÈ΋ ÚfiÎÏËÛË ÌÂ Â˘Úˆ-Û˘Ó¤‰ÚÈÔ Στα πλαίσια τησ πολιτικήσ των προκλήσεων που εφαρµÞζει, έναντι τησ κυπριακήσ προεδρίασ στην ΕΕ η Τουρκία, εντάσσεται και η πραγµατοποίηση συνεδρίου στην κατεχÞµενη ΑµµÞχωστο, απÞ την Πανευρωπαϊκή Συνοµοσπονδία Εκπαιδευτικών Οργανώσεων – ETUCE, στο διήµερο 28-29 Σεπτεµβρίου 2012. Οπωσ επεσήµανε, σε γραπτή τησ ερώτηση προσ την ΚοµισιÞν, στισ 25 Ιουνίου, η ΑντιγÞνη Κύπρια ευρωβουλευτήσ Παπαδοπούλου, το συνέδριο αυτÞ πραγµατοποιείται κατά τη διάρκεια του εξαµήνου τησ Κυπριακήσ Προεδρίασ, σε µια προσπάθεια εξίσωσησ τησ Κυπριακήσ ∆ηµοκρατίασ µε το ψευδοκράτοσ. Απάντηση απÞ την Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή δεν υπήρξε, µέχρι στιγµήσ, αλλά ελπίζεται Þτι η ΚοµισιÞν και η αρµÞδια Κοινοτική Επίτροποσ θα αποφασίσουν να προβούν στισ απαραίτητεσ ενέργειεσ, προκειµένου να σταµατήσει µια τÞσο προκλητική ενέργεια, δεδοµένου Þτι η ETUCE είναι οργάνωση που

µένων που έχουµε σήµερα, κανένασ δεν µασ εµποδίζει, αλλά αντίθετα η ζωή µασ το επιβάλλει, να ερευνήσουµε Þλεσ τισ δυνατÞτητεσ για να έχουµε το συντοµÞτερο φθηνή παραγωγή ηλεκτρικήσ ενέργειασ», είπε. Ερωτηθείσ ποιο είναι το χρονοδιάγραµµα για την ολοκλήρωση των συζητήσεων µε το Ισραήλ, ο κ. Συλικιώτησ ανέφερε πωσ αυτέσ οι συζητήσεισ πρέπει να διαρκέσουν δύο µε τρεισ µήνεσ το πολύ. ΠρÞσθεσε, πωσ µέσα σε αυτούσ τουσ δύο µε τρεισ µήνεσ µπορούν να διεξάγονται και οι παράλληλεσ διεργασίεσ για εναλλακτικέσ λύσεισ. «Μέχρι το τέλοσ του χρÞνου πρέπει να έχουµε µπροστά µασ συγκεκριµένεσ προτάσεισ, είτε την έλευση απÞ το Ισραήλ, είτε άλλεσ λύσεισ. Οποια λύση και να βρούµε, θέλουµε τουλάχιστον δύο χρÞνια για να φέρουµε το φυσικÞ αέριο στην Κύπρο. Αρα, Þποια επιλογή και να κάνουµε, δεν µπορούµε να έχουµε φυσικÞ αέριο πριν απÞ τισ αρχέσ του 2015», εξήγησε. ∆ιευκρινίζοντασ περαιτέρω, είπε πωσ η παράλληλα διαδικασία του ανοικτού διαγωνισµού, αφορά οποιαδήποτε µορφή φυσικού αερίου. «Η διαδικασία που θα εξαγγείλει η ∆ΕΦΑ θα αφορά οποιαδήποτε µορφή το συντοµÞτερο, άρα µπορεί να είναι οποιαδήποτε µορφή είτε υγροποιηµένο, είτε µε πλωτή, είτε συµπιεσµένο. ∆εν µπορούµε απÞ τώρα να ξέρουµε ποια θα είναι η µορφή», συµπλήρωσε. Ο κ. Συλικιώτησ, ανέφερε εξάλλου πωσ η ∆ΕΦΑ έχει ήδη προχωρήσει σε διεργασίεσ που αφορούν το εσωτερικÞ δίκτυο διανοµήσ του φυσικού αερίου. «Εχει γίνει η πρώτη φάση του σχεδιασµού, έχει γίνει η συνέλευση στην παρουσία των κοινοτήτων απÞ Þπου θα διέρχονται οι αγωγοί φυσικού αερίου», είπε. Επιπλέον, σηµείωσε Þτι η ∆ΕΦΑ εξασφάλισε απÞ τα ταµεία τησ ΕΕ, 10 εκ. ευρώ ωσ συγχρηµατοδÞτηση στο έργο εσωτερικού δικτύου διανοµήσ.

και πωσ τώρα αναµένουµε απÞ τουσ Ισραηλίτεσ να ορίσουν τη δική τουσ οµάδα. «Ελπίζω Þτι τισ επÞµενεσ µέρεσ θα έχουµε αυτÞ το δεδοµένο µπροστά µασ», πρÞσθεσε. Ο κ. Συλικιώτησ διευκρίνισε πωσ η συζήτηση µε το Ισραήλ για έλευση φυσικού αερίου, δεν έχει καµία σχέση µε τη συζήτηση που κάνει το Ισραήλ για εξαγωγή φυσικού αερίου. «Εµείσ ζητήσαµε αυτÞ να ειδωθεί ωσ ένα ξεχωριστÞ θέµα απÞ την ευρύτερη συζήτηση, για το ποιεσ ποσÞτητεσ και πÞτε θα επιτρέψει εξαγωγή φυσικού αερίου το Ισραήλ και αυτÞ έγινε αποδεκτÞ γιατί οι ανάγκεσ τησ Κύπρου είναι πολύ µικρέσ», είπε. Μέσω τησ ∆ΕΦΑ, σηµείωσε, η Κύπροσ θα ξεκινήσει και παράλληλεσ διαδικασίεσ ανοι-

κτών προσφορών για την έλευση φυσικού αερίου µε οποιαδήποτε µορφή. «Μπορούµε να κάνουµε παράλληλα αυτέσ τισ διαδικασίεσ έτσι ώστε αν αποτύχει αυτή η προσπάθεια µε το Ισραήλ, να έχουµε το συντοµÞτερο µπροστά µασ προτάσεισ για την έλευση φυσικού αερίου το συντοµÞτερο, πριν απÞ το 2017. Αρα, τουσ επÞµενουσ µήνεσ θα έχουµε νέα γύρω απÞ αυτά τα δεδοµένα», δήλωσε. Επίσησ, ανέφερε πωσ υπάρχει στη διεθνή αγορά ένασ έντονοσ ανταγωνισµÞσ και πωσ δεν είναι εύκολο να εξασφαλίσεισ φυσικÞ αέριο, το οποίο θα συµβάλει ουσιαστικά σε µεγάλεσ µειώσεισ στην παραγωγή ηλεκτρικού ρεύµατοσ. «ΑυτÞ θα συµβεί Þταν θα έχουµε και την έλευση δικού µασ φυσικού αερίου, αλλά θεωρώ Þτι στη βάση των δεδο-

χρηµατοδοτείται απÞ την Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση και παράνοµα αξιοποιεί αυτή τη χρηµατοδÞτηση για να διοργανώσει συνέδριο στην κατεχÞµενη Κύπρο στο ξενοδοχείο «Salamis» που ανήκει σε Ελληνοκύπριουσ.

Pavlides& Araouzos Ltd. Υπενθυµίζουµε πωσ πριν µερικούσ µήνεσ παρÞµοια ανακοίνωση έγινε και για τα Mazda. Πλέον, η GPA εκπροσωπεί τισ µάρκεσ Opel, Chevrolet, Citroën, Saab, Μazda και τη Subaru.

GPA: ∫·È Â›ÛËÌ· Subaru

HB: ™ÙȘ 31/8 Ù· µÁ‹Î·Ó ÂÎÙfi˜ ÙÔÓ πÔ‡ÓÈÔ ÂÍ·ÌËÓÈ·›· Ù˘ ∂ÏÏËÓÈ΋˜

Την επίσηµη ένταξη τησ Subaru στο δυναµικÞ τησ ανακοίνωσε και επίσηµα η Geo. Pavlides & Araouzos. ΠρÞκειται ουσιαστικά για την ολοκλήρωση τησ συµφωνίασ µεταξύ τησ Α. Stefanides & Son Ltd και τησ Geo. Pavlides& Araouzos Ltd. H Α.Stefanides & Sons Ltd, έχει παραχωρήσει το δικαίωµα εισαγωγήσ τησ µάρκασ Subaru στην Α. Stefanides & Son Automotive Ltd, στην οποία συµµετέχουν µε ποσοστÞ 50% η Α. Stefanides & Son Ltd και µε ποσοστÞ 50% η Geo. Pavlides & Araouzos Ltd. Τα δικαιώµατα διανοµήσ τησ Subaru στην Κύπρο έχουν παραχωρηθεί στην GPA Motion Ltd, θυγατρική εταιρεία τησ Geo.

Στισ 31 Αυγούστου 2012 αναµένεται να ανακοινώσει τα εξαµηνιαία τησ αποτελέσµατα η Ελληνική Τράπεζα. Το διοικητικÞ συµβούλιο τησ τράπεζασ θα συνεδριάσει την Παρασκευή 31 Αυγούστου 2012 για να εξετάσει, µεταξύ άλλων, τα αποτελέσµατα του Οµίλου για την πρώτη εξαµηνία του έτουσ 2012. Τα αποτελέσµατα θα ανακοινωθούν στο Χρηµατιστήριο Αξιών Κύπρου, στην Επιτροπή Κεφαλαιαγοράσ και στον Τύπο µετά απÞ την έγκρισή τουσ απÞ το ∆Σ. Η Ελληνική Τράπεζα κατέγραψε το 2011 ζηµιέσ 100,7 εκ. ευρώ έναντι κερδών 8,9 εκ. ευρώ το 2010 λÞγω τησ αποµείωσησ των ελληνικών οµολÞγων ύψουσ 110 εκ. ευρώ

που έχει η Ελληνική και τησ επιδείνωσησ τησ ποιÞτητασ του ενεργητικού τησ. Το εξάµηνο του 2011, η τράπεζα ανακοίνωσε ζηµιέσ 36 εκ. ευρώ. Το τρίµηνο του 2012, η τράπεζα ανακοίνωσε κέρδη 8,1 εκ. ευρώ.


Αύξηση 4,2% σηµείωσαν τον Ιούνιο του 2012 τα ταξίδια κατοίκων Κύπρου στο εξωτερικÞ, φθάνοντασ στισ 108.617 σε σύγκριση µε 104.273 τον Ιούνιο του 2011, σύµφωνα µε ανακοίνωση τησ Στατιστικήσ Υπηρεσίασ. Με βάση τα αποτελέσµατα τησ Έρευνασ Ταξιδιωτών, τον Ιούνιο του 2012 σηµειώθηκε αύξηση 10,9% στισ επιστροφέσ - αφίξεισ κατοίκων Κύπρου απÞ την Ελλάδα (απÞ 33.469 τον Ιούνιο 2011 σε 37.133 τον Ιούνιο του 2012). Αντίθετα, µείωση 8,6% σηµειώθηκε στισ επιστροφέσ - αφίξεισ κατοίκων Κύπρου απÞ το Ηνωµένο Βασίλειο, στισ 29.591, σε σύγκριση µε τον Ιούνιο του 2011.

25 ΙΟΥΛΙΟΥ, 2012


6/18 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ

∆Ú›· Ù· ·Ì·ÚÙ‹Ì·Ù· ÙˆÓ ∂˘Úˆ·›ˆÓ ·¤Ó·ÓÙÈ ÛÙËÓ ∂ÏÏ¿‰· Με τον τίτλο «Τρία ευρωπαϊκά λάθη» η οικονοµική εφηµερίδα Les Echos φιλοξενεί άρθρο γνώµησ οµάδασ τραπεζιτών και οικονοµολÞγων που υπογράφουν ωσ «∆ιογένησ». Στο άρθρο υπογραµµίζονται τα λάθη των Ευρωπαίων απέναντι στην Ελλάδα και εκτιµάται Þτι η έξοδοσ τησ χώρασ απÞ το ευρώ εξακολουθεί να είναι µια σηµαντική πιθανÞτητα, ενώ οι αποταµιεύσεισ των Ελλήνων που είναι απαραίτητεσ για την επανεκκίνηση τησ οικονοµίασ «θα έχουν φύγει για αλλού». Εισαγωγικά γίνεται αναφορά στο PSI, µε την επισήµανση Þτι οδήγησε την Ευρώπη σε πρωτÞγνωρεσ και µη ελέγξιµεσ καταστάσεισ, αφού η περίπτωση τησ Ελλάδασ δεν ήταν συγκρίσιµη µε την πρÞτερη εµπειρία τησ Αργεντινήσ, η οποία είχε κλειστÞ τραπεζικÞ σύστηµα. Εξηγούν Þτι µε το ευρώ τα ευρωπαϊκά κράτη δηµιούργησαν ένα ανοικτÞ σύστηµα µε ελεύθερη διακίνηση του χρήµατοσ. Έτσι

οι ελληνικέσ τράπεζεσ µπορούν χωρίσ πρÞβληµα να µεταφέρουν τα χρήµατα των πελατών τουσ στισ αγγλοσαξονικέσ τράπεζεσ, για παράδειγµα, στισ οποίεσ δεν είναι δυνατÞν να απαγορευθεί η συναλλαγµατική τουσ µετατροπή σε λίρεσ ή δολάρια. Με τον τρÞπο αυτÞ επιτυγχάνεται η «απεθνικοποίηση» των ελληνικών αποταµιεύσεων, αφού µε το να ανήκουν στην ΕΕ δεν είναι δυνατÞν να τεθεί σε λειτουργία έλεγχοσ των εµβασµάτων ειδικά για τουσ Έλληνεσ. Εάν συνεχίσουµε µε την ίδια λογική, λέει η οµάδα «∆ιογένησ», πριν προλάβουµε να κάνουµε οτιδήποτε, το µÞνο που θα έχει αποµείνει στην Ευρώπη θα είναι τα χρέη τησ Ελλάδασ και τησ Ισπανίασ. Τα χρήµατα θα έχουν φύγει για αλλού, τη στιγµή µάλιστα που είναι απαραίτητα για την επανεκκίνηση των οικονοµιών. Οι Ευρωπαίοι ηγέτεσ έχουν κάνει λάθη, τουλάχιστον τρεισ φορέσ:

- Πρώτο λάθοσ η παραβίαση του σύµφωνου αλληλεγγύησ, µε τη δικαιολογία Þτι οι Έλληνεσ είπαν ψέµατα. - ∆εύτερο, η λήψη κάθε φορά µέτρων, ανεπαρκών και υψηλού κÞστουσ, που προκάλεσαν τη δυσφορία του λαού, χωρίσ να δώσουν λύσεισ. - Τρίτο, η ολιγωρία και οι χρονικέσ καθυστερήσεισ που επέτρεψαν στουσ πλούσιουσ Έλληνεσ, αλλά και στουσ Ισπανούσ τελικά,

να πάρουν τα µέτρα τουσ ώστε να µεταφέρουν τα χρήµατά τουσ στο εξωτερικÞ. Συνεχίζοντασ µε αυτή τη λογική, δεν αποµένουν παρά δύο επιλογέσ για τουσ Ευρωπαίουσ σε σχέση µε την Ελλάδα: ή να µην κάνουν τίποτα, ή ν’ αποφασίσουν την έξοδÞ τησ απÞ το ευρώ. Σε αυτήν την περίπτωση, εκτιµά η οµάδα «∆ιογένησ», οι µεγάλοι νικητέσ θα είναι το δολάριο και η αµερικάνικη οικονοµία που έχει τÞσο ανάγκη απÞ ρευστÞτητα για τη χρηµατοδÞτηση των ελλειµµάτων τησ. Μαζί τησ κερδισµένεσ θα βγουν και οι αγγλοσαξονικέσ τράπεζεσ, που στο µεταξύ θα έχουν εισπράξει τισ προµήθειέσ τουσ. Σε έναν κÞσµο Þπου κυριαρχεί ο σκληρÞσ ανταγωνισµÞσ, η νίκη ανήκει σε αυτούσ που αποδεικνύουν την ικανÞτητά τουσ να κινηθούν, να αποφασίσουν και να δράσουν απέναντι σε µια Ευρώπη πετρωµένη στον εγωισµÞ και στισ διαιρέσεισ τησ, καταλήγει το άρθρο.

√ «ÎÚ˘Êfi˜ ÏÔ‡ÙÔ˜» ·ÁÁ›˙ÂÈ Ù· $32 ÙÚȘ Οι πλέον πλούσιοι άνθρωποι του κÞσµου, έχουν «κρύψει» τουλάχιστον $21 τρισ (17 τρισ ευρώ) σε οffshore (εξωχώριουσ) λογαριασµούσ, προκειµένου να γλιτώσουν απÞ την εφορία, αναφέρει µελέτη. Η έκθεση προέρχεται απÞ το ∆ίκτυο Φορολογικήσ ∆ικαιοσύνησ µια οργάνωση µε βάση τη Μεγάλη Βρετανία, η οποία εργάζεται για την εξασφάλιση τησ διαφάνειασ και την καταπολέµηση τησ φοροδιαφυγήσ. Σύµφωνα µε τη συγκεκριµένη έκθεση «η

οικονοµική ανισÞτητα είναι πολύ χειρÞτερη απÞ Þτι νοµίζουµε». Ο Τζέιµσ Χένρι πρώην επικεφαλήσ οικονοµολÞγοσ τησ McKinsey & Co, είναι αυτÞσ που ηγήθηκε τησ σχετικήσ µελέτησ. Ανακάλυψε Þτι ο «κρυφÞσ πλούτοσ» θα µπορούσε να φτάσει ακÞµη και στα 32 τρισεκατοµµύρια δολάρια, που ισοδυναµεί µε το άθροισµα των οικονοµιών των Ηνωµένων Πολιτειών και τησ Ιαπωνίασ. Σε παγκÞσµιο επίπεδο, η δηµιουργία των

υπεράκτιων λογαριασµών οδηγεί κάθε χρÞνο σε απώλεια φορολογικών εσÞδων έωσ και 280 δισεκατοµµύρια δολάρια. Η εκτίµηση αυτή µάλλον θεωρείται συντηρητική, καθώσ ακίνητα, σκάφη αναψυχήσ και άλλα περιουσιακά στοιχεία δεν περιλαµβάνονται στην έρευνα. Κατά τον Τζέιµσ Χένρι πρÞκειται για µια «τεράστια µαύρη τρύπα στην παγκÞσµια οικονοµία». Σύµφωνα πάλι µε τη συγκεκριµένη έκθεση ο περισσÞτεροσ πλούτοσ «απλώνεται»

ανάµεσα σε αριθµÞ µικρÞτερο απÞ 10 εκατοµµύρια ανθρώπουσ, ενώ λιγÞτερο απÞ 100.000 άνθρωποι σε Þλο τον κÞσµο έχουν 9,8 τρισεκατοµµύρια δολάρια σε offshore λογαριασµούσ. Η έκθεση βασίστηκε σε στοιχεία απÞ την ΠαγκÞσµια Τράπεζα, το ∆ιεθνέσ ΝοµισµατικÞ Ταµείο, τα Ηνωµένα Έθνη, την Τράπεζα ∆ιεθνών ∆ιακανονισµών, καθώσ επίσησ απÞ τισ κεντρικέσ τράπεζεσ και τα υπουργεία Οικονοµικών διαφÞρων χωρών.

∆Ô Â˘ÚÒ ‰ÂÓ ı· ηٷÚÚ‡ÛÂÈ ·Ú¿ ÙȘ ȤÛÂȘ To ευρώ µπορεί να δέχεται ασφυκτικέσ πιέσεισ το τελευταίο διάστηµα και να καταγράφει ισχυρÞτατεσ απώλειεσ, υποχωρώντασ στα χαµηλÞτερα επίπεδα σε διάστηµα 2 ετών, αλλά αυτÞ δεν σηµαίνει πωσ το επÞµενο στάδιο είναι η κατάρρευσή του. Σε αυτÞ συναινεί µεγάλη µερίδα αναλυτών, η οποία και παρακολουθεί Þλεσ τισ εξε-

λίξεισ αναφορικά µε την πορεία τησ ευρωπαϊκήσ κρίσησ χρέουσ. “Η πιθανÞτητα το ευρώ να ανακάµψει, αλλά και ο χρÞνοσ που µπορεί αυτÞ να γίνει χαρακτηρίζονται απÞ µεγάλη αβεβαιÞτητα. Κανείσ δεν µπορεί µε βεβαιÞτητα να αποφανθεί αν και πÞτε το ευρώ θα ανακάµψει”, σχολιάζουν στην τελευταία έκθεσή τουσ για τα ευρωπαϊκά τεκταινÞµενα αναλυ-

τέσ τησ Goldman Sachs. Kατά τουσ ίδιουσ, καίρια ζητήµατα για την επÞµενη µέρα του ενιαίου νοµίσµατοσ δεν αποκλείεται να επιλυθούν στα µέσα του επÞµενου έτουσ, 2013. Σύµφωνα µε τη Goldman, είναι εξαιρετικά δύσκολο να καθοριστεί ένα ακριβέσ χρονοδιάγραµµα για το πωσ οι επικείµενεσ πολιτι-

κέσ εξελίξεισ θα επηρεάσουν την πορεία του ευρώ. “Το ευρώ έχει ανταπεξέλθει στισ µέχρι τώρα πιέσεισ”, σχολιάζει απÞ την πλευρά του ο Sean Callow, αναλυτήσ τησ Westpac. Κατά τον Callow, το ευρώ έχει επιδείξει µεγάλη ανθεκτικÞτητα. ΑυτÞ σηµαίνει πωσ Þλοι οι επενδυτέσ, µε bearish διαθέσεισ, θα απογοητευτούν.

√È ÈÛ·ÓÈΤ˜ ·ÓËÛ˘¯›Â˜ ·ÛÎÔ‡Ó ȤÛÂȘ ÛÙÔ Â˘ÚÒ ∫Àƒπ∞∫√™ √ƒ∂π¡√™ ¢È‡ı˘ÓÛË ¢È·¯ÂÈÚ›Ûˆ˜ ¢È·ıÂۛ̈Ó, Alpha Bank Cyprus Ltd

Οι δυσµενείσ χρηµατοπιστωτικέσ συνθήκεσ στην Ευρωζώνη έχουν ωσ αποτέλεσµα το ευρώ να εξακολουθεί να δέχεται πιέσεισ και να τυγχάνει διαπραγµάτευσησ έναντι του δολαρίου ΗΠΑ περί τα 1,2100 το µεσηµέρι τησ Τρίτησ. Σηµειώνεται Þτι την περασµένη ∆ευτέρα το ευρώ είχε καταγράψει το χαµηλÞτερο του επίπεδο στα 1,2070 έναντι του δολαρίου, απÞ τον Ιούνιο του 2010. Η ενίσχυσησ τησ πιθανÞτητασ η Ισπανία να προσφύγει στον EFSF για κάλυψη των χρηµατοδοτικών αναγκών του ισπανικού δηµοσίου, η προσφυγή περιφερειών τησ χώρασ στην κεντρική κυβέρνηση για χρη-

µατοδÞτηση, η αβεβαιÞτητα για την κατάσταση του ισπανικού τραπεζικού συστήµατοσ και η ασαφήσ στρατηγική αντιµετώπισησ τησ κρίσησ στην Ευρωζώνη, αποτελούν τουσ κύριουσ παράγοντεσ που συµβάλλουν στη δυσµενή εικÞνα του επενδυτικού κλίµατοσ. ΕπιπρÞσθετα, η ενίσχυση του κÞστουσ δανεισµού τησ Ισπανίασ και τησ Ιταλίασ επηρεάζει αρνητικά το ευρωπαϊκÞ νÞµισµα. Συγκεκριµένα, η απÞδοση στη λήξη του δεκαετούσ οµολÞγου αναφοράσ Ισπανίασ διαµορφώνεται στο υψηλÞτερο επίπεδο (7,58%) απÞ την υιοθέτηση του ευρώ αποτυπώνοντασ την ανησυχία για την οικονοµική κατάσταση τησ χώρασ. Προβλήµατα Þµωσ θα αντιµετωπίσει και η Ιταλία, που βλέπει το δικÞ τησ κÞστοσ δανεισµού για δέκα έτη, να κινείται στο 6,44%. ΕπιπρÞσθετα ο οίκοσ αξιολÞγησησ

πιστοληπτικήσ ικανÞτητασ Moody’s προέβη σε αναθεώρηση τησ προοπτικήσ τησ πιστοληπτικήσ διαβάθµισησ (Aaa) τησ Γερµανίασ, τησ Ολλανδίασ και του Λουξεµβούργου σε αρνητική απÞ σταθερή. Σαν κύριο λÞγω αναφέρει Þτι έχει ενισχυθεί η πιθανÞτητα να επιβαρυνθούν οι ανωτέρω χώρεσ µε την παροχή χρηµατοδοτικήσ στήριξησ προσ την Ισπανία και την Ιταλία. Σε µια άλλη εξέλιξη η αποστροφή για ανάληψη κινδύνου ευνοεί το ιαπωνικÞ νÞµισµα. Συγκεκριµένα η ισοτιµία ευρώ/γιεν κατέγραψε υψηλÞ (94,22 γεν) 12 ετών λÞγω ενίσχυσησ τησ ανησυχίασ για την κρίση χρέουσ στην Ευρωζώνη. Τέλοσ στισ ΗΠΑ, οι αιτήσεισ για επιδÞµατα ανεργίασ αυξήθηκαν την περασµένη εβδοµάδα στισ 386.000 απÞ 352.000. ΩστÞσο τα µεγέθη των δυο τελευταίων

εβδοµάδων έχουν επηρεαστεί απÞ εποχικήσ φύσεωσ µεταβολέσ του εργατικού δυναµικού.

25 ΙΟΥΛIOY, 2012


ΕΛΛΑ∆Α | 7/19

¶Èı·Ó‹ Ë ÎÔÈÓˆÓÈ΋ ¤ÎÚËÍË ÛÙËÓ ∂ÏÏ¿‰· «Ùταν ένα έθνοσ χάνει την ελπίδα του, τÞτε αρχίζει η κλονίζεται η πίστη στουσ δηµοκρατικούσ θεσµούσ και η κοινωνική αναταραχή είναι περισσÞτερο πιθανή» είπε η Σάραν Μπάροου, γενική γραµµατέασ τησ ∆ιεθνούσ Συνοµοσπονδίασ Συνδικάτων (ITUC), παρουσιάζοντασ τα θλιβερά για τουσ Έλληνεσ εργαζοµένουσ και την αγορά εργασίασ συµπεράσµατα πανευρωπαϊκήσ έρευνασ, βάσει τησ οποίασ το 91% των Ελλήνων εργαζοµένων έχουν δει τα εισοδήµατά τουσ να µειώνονται. Η Μπάροου µίλησε για ζοφερή κατάσταση στην Ελλάδα και ζήτησε αποκατάσταση του βασικού µισθού, σεβασµÞ των συλλογικών συµβάσεων και των αποφάσεων των εταίρων. Ιδιαίτερο ενδιαφέρον δε, µε δεδοµένο Þτι είχε συναντήσεισ τÞσο µε την Κρ. Λαγκάρντ του ∆ΝΤ αλλά και µε αξιωµατούχουσ τησ ΕΕ, έχει η κατηγορηµατική άρνησή τησ Þταν ρωτήθηκε απÞ το ΑΜΠΕ αν η τρÞικα έχει αντιληφθεί τισ κοινωνικέσ διαστάσεισ τησ κρίσησ στην Ελλάδα και το ενδεχÞµενο να προκληθεί κοινωνική έκρηξη. Το µÞνο που µελετά η τρÞικα έωσ τώρα µÞνο που µελετούν είναι οι αριθµοί, είπε χαρακτηριστικά και ζήτησε αλλαγή τησ µνηµονιακήσ πολιτικήσ που ούτωσ ή άλλωσ «δεν λειτουργεί». ΕιδικÞτερα, βάσει τησ πανευρωπαϊκήσ έρευνασ που διεξήχθη για λογαριασµÞ τησ ∆ιεθνούσ Συνοµοσπονδίασ Συνδικάτων (ITUC) ποσοστÞ 91% των Ελλήνων εργαζοµένων έχουν δει τα εισοδήµατά τουσ να µειώνονται, 7% εκτιµούν Þτι βρίσκονται στο ίδιο επίπεδο και 3% θεωρούν Þτι έχουν ενισχυθεί τα εισοδήµατά τουσ. Η κυρία Μπάροου ζήτησε την αποκατάσταση του βασικού µισθού στην Ελλάδα, στα

επίπεδα που βρισκÞταν πριν απÞ την εφαρµογή του δεύτερου µνηµονίου «ώστε οι άνθρωποι να µπορούν να ζήσουν µε αξιοπρέπεια», Þπωσ είπε. Ζήτησε, επίσησ, να γίνονται σεβαστέσ οι αποφάσεισ των κοινωνικών εταίρων και να αποκατασταθούν οι οργανισµοί κοινωνικήσ πολιτικήσ, Þπωσ οι οργανισµοί Εργατικήσ Εστίασ και Κατοικίασ που καταργήθηκαν µε το δεύτερο µνηµÞνιο. Η κυρία Μπάροου και κλιµάκιο τησ ∆ιεθνούσ Συνδικαλιστικήσ Συνοµοσπονδίασ πραγµατοποίησαν επίσησ διαδοχικέσ συναντήσεισ µε συνδικάτα και εργαζÞµενουσ σε επιχειρήσεισ, στα πλαίσια τησ καταγραφήσ εκ µέρουσ τησ οργάνωσησ των παραβιάσεων των εργασιακών δικαιωµάτων, συµπεριλαµβανοµένων και των καταστρατηγήσεων τησ εργατικήσ νοµοθεσίασ στην Ελλάδα και σε άλλεσ χώρεσ. Η γραµµατέασ τησ ∆ιεθνούσ Συνοµοσπονδίασ χαρακτήρισε την κατάσταση στην Ελλάδα «ζοφερή» και πρÞσθεσε, Þτι κατά τισ συναντήσεισ τησ µε τουσ Έλληνεσ εργαζοµένουσ, είδε «ανθρώπουσ τροµαγµένουσ, ανθρώπουσ που φοβούνται να κάνουν παιδιά, γιατί δεν γνωρίζουν αν µπορούν να τα εξασφαλίσουν». «Έτσι, Þµωσ, καταστρέφεται ο ιστÞσ αυτήσ τησ ωραίασ χώρασ» τÞνισε. «Ùταν ένα έθνοσ χάνει την ελπίδα του, τÞτε αρχίζει η κλονίζεται η πίστη στουσ δηµοκρατικούσ θεσµούσ και η κοινωνική αναταραχή είναι περισσÞτερο πιθανή» είπε η κ. Μπάροου. Απαντώντασ δε σε ερώτηση, αν κατά τισ επαφέσ που είχε µε εκπροσώπουσ του ∆ιεθνούσ Νοµισµατικού Ταµείου και τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ένωσησ, διαπίστωσε Þτι αντιµετωπίζουν ένα τέτοιο ενδεχÞµενο, ήταν κατη-

γορηµατική. «∆εν έχουν αντιληφθεί το ενδεχÞµενο µιασ κοινωνικήσ αναταραχήσ γιατί το µÞνο που έχουν µελετήσει έωσ τώρα είναι οι αριθµοί» τÞνισε. «Οι αριθµοί εκφράζουν µια εικÞνα, αλλά είναι φανερÞ Þτι οι ορθÞδοξεσ πολιτικέσ που έχουν εφαρµοσθεί ωσ τώρα δεν λειτουργούν» υποστήριξε και πρÞσθεσε Þτι «Þταν το 50% των νέων στην Ελλάδα είναι άνεργοι και το 65% αντιµετωπίζει τον κίνδυνο τησ φτώχιασ, τÞτε το ∆ΝΤ και η

Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση θα πρέπει να ξανασκεφτούν τισ συµβουλέσ τουσ». Η παγκÞσµια έρευνα του κλιµακίου, γίνεται επιλεκτικά σε χώρεσ, Þπου καταγράφονται βαρύτατεσ παραβιάσεισ εργασιακών δικαιωµάτων, µεταξύ αυτών και η Ελλάδα, η οποία συµπεριλήφθηκε έπειτα απÞ ενέργειεσ τησ ΓΣΕΕ. H ∆ιεθνήσ Συνδικαλιστική Συνοµοσπονδία εκπροσωπεί 175 εκατοµµύρια εργαζÞµενουσ, σε 153 χώρεσ µε 308 συνολικά οργανώσεισ µέλη.

∞ı‹Ó·, ÌÈ· fiÏË ˘fi ÒÏËÛË «Αθήνα, µια πÞλη υπÞ πώληση, η οποία αντιµετωπίζει τισ τελευταίεσ εξετάσεισ για το ευρώ», αναφέρει σε άρθρο του, ο απεσταλµένοσ τησ εφηµερίδασ «Λα Ρεπούµπλικα» στην ελληνική πρωτεύουσα. «∆εν θα είναι αρκετή η πώληση των τελευταίων τεσσάρων Airbus τησ παλιάσ Ολυµπιακήσ Αεροπορίασ -η οποία έχει ήδη ιδιωτικοποιηθεί- για να “χορτάσει” η τρÞικα, η οποία επισκέπτεται την Αθήνα, Þπου πρέπει να δοθούν οι πολλοστέσ εξετάσεισ του ευρώ» γράφει η µεγαλύτερη εφηµερίδα τησ ιταλικήσ πρωτεύουσασ. «Σύµφωνα µε τα προγράµµατα που είχαν εκπονηθεί, το ταµείο ιδιωτικοποιήσεων θα έπρεπε να περισυλλέξει 3,2 δισεκατοµµύρια ευρώ, χάρη στη διάθεση, στην

αγορά, σηµαντικήσ κινητήσ και ακίνητησ περιουσίασ. Μέχρι τώρα, Þµωσ, συµπεριλαµβανοµένων και των αεροπλάνων, συγκέντρωσε κάτι περισσÞτερο απÞ το µισÞ ποσÞ, δηλαδή 1,8 δισεκατοµµύρια ευρώ. Σαν τον Μινώταυρο, η τρÞικα ζητά απÞ την Αθήνα, σαφώσ µεγαλύτερεσ θυσίεσ» συµπληρώνει ο ΙταλÞσ απεσταλµένοσ Πάολο Γκρισέρι. Οι συνεργάτεσ του Αντώνη Σαµαρά προσπάθησαν πάντωσ να πείσουν τουσ εξεταστέσ Þτι ένα µέροσ τησ καθυστέρησησ οφείλεται στη δύσκολη, πολιτικά, περίοδο, µε δύο αλλεπάλληλεσ εκλογικέσ αναµετρήσεισ. Θα ζητηθεί η µετάθεση πέραν του 2014 τησ ηµεροµηνίασ κατά την οποία θα γίνουν οι περικοπέσ ύψουσ 11,4 δισ ευρώ, για να γίνει δυνατÞ να αυξηθούν οι κατώτερεσ

Turkish Airlines: ¶ÔÓÙ¿ÚÂÈ ÛÙËÓ £ÂÛÛ·ÏÔÓ›ÎË

προσ τη «νύµφη του Θερµαϊκού», το οποίο ήδη εκτελείται έξι φορέσ την εβδοµάδα. ΕκτÞσ απÞ τη Θεσσαλονίκη, ωστÞσο, η Turkish Airlines «πετά» και προσ την Αθήνα, εκτελώντασ σε εβδοµαδιαία βάση συνολικά 27 πτήσεισ προσ τη χώρα, την οποία συνδέει µε τον τρÞπο αυτÞ µε τουλάχιστον διακÞσιουσ προορισµούσ διεθνώσ, Þπου διαθέτει η ίδια πτητική παρουσία.

Υψηλέσ «πτήσεισ» καταγράφει η τουρκική αεροπορική εταιρεία Turkish Airlines, µε την επιλογή τησ να δραστηριοποιηθεί στη γραµµή Κωνσταντινούπολη - Θεσσαλονίκη, καθώσ στουσ πρώτουσ 14 µήνεσ λειτουργίασ τησ αεροπορικήσ σύνδεσησ, ήδη, έχουν διακινηθεί συνολικά περίπου 50.000 επιβάτεσ, µε τισ πληρÞτητεσ, ειδικά το φετινÞ καλοκαίρι, να πλησιάζουν το 100% ανά πτήση. Η εξέλιξη αυτή έχει «απογειώσει» τισ προσδοκίεσ του τουρκικού αεροµεταφορέα για την επένδυσή του, µε αποτέλεσµα στα σχέδια τησ διοίκησησ να περιλαµβάνεται πλέον η προσθήκη µίασ ακÞµη πτήσησ στο εβδοµαδιαίο πρÞγραµµα δροµολογίων τησ

∞ÎfiÌ· ˘¿Ú¯Ô˘Ó ÔÈ Èı·ÓfiÙËÙ˜ ÂÍfi‰Ô˘ Αυξηµένη έκρινε την πιθανÞτητα εξÞδου τησ Ελλάδασ απÞ το ευρώ, αναλύτρια τησ Moody’s, ωστÞσο η εγκατάλειψη τησ ευρωζώνησ απÞ τη χώρα, δεν συνιστά το βασικÞ σενάριο για τον οίκο αξιολÞγησησ «Η πιθανÞτητα (µιασ εξÞδου) έχει αυξηθεί σε αξιοσηµείωτο βαθµÞ» απÞ τισ αρχέσ

συντάξεισ και να µειωθούν οι φÞροι που βαραίνουν τισ επιχειρήσεισ» συµπληρώνει η «Λα Ρεπούµπλικα». Σύµφωνα µε τον ΙταλÞ απεσταλµένο «κανείσ δεν ξέρει τι πρÞκειται να συµβεί αν τελικά κερδίσουν τα γερµανικά γεράκια και του χρÞνου, δήλωσε η αναλύτρια Σάρα Κάρλσον, σηµειώνοντασ ωστÞσο Þτι ο οίκοσ δεν θεωρεί πιθανÞ να φύγουν άλλεσ χώρεσ απÞ την ευρωζώνη. Η Moody’s µείωσε σήµερα απÞ “σταθερή” σε “αρνητική” (negative outlook) την προοπτική του δηµÞσιου χρέουσ τησ Γερµανίασ, τησ Ολλανδίασ και του Λουξεµβούργου, λÞγω τησ “αυξανÞµενησ αβεβαιÞτητασ” για την κρίση χρέουσ στην ευρωζώνη.

™Â «Ó¤·» ¯¤ÚÈ· ÙÔ 43,55% Ù˘ Eurobank Στη νέα γενιά τησ οικογένειασ Λάτση περνά η τράπεζα Eurobank καθώσ ο Ùµιλοσ EFG, που κατέχει σήµερα το 44,70% των κοινών µετοχών τησ ελληνικήσ τράπεζασ, µεταβίβασε χθεσ ποσοστÞ 43,55% στα

η Ελλάδα επιστρέψει στη δραχµή», διÞτι «στην Αθήνα, η φτώχεια είναι πλέον εµφανήσ. Και οι κεντρικέσ συνοικίεσ έχουν µετατραπεί σε ένα περίεργο µείγµα τουρισµού και απÞγνωσησ, µε πωλητέσ αναµνηστικών και φτωχούσ που προσπαθούν να βρουν κάποιο τρÞπο για να αποµακρύνουν την πείνα». Η εφηµερίδα τησ Αιώνιασ ΠÞλησ καταλήγει την ανάλυσή τησ τονίζοντασ Þτι «σήµερα, η κυβέρνηση Σαµαρά δοκιµάζεται καθοριστικά, στην αναζήτηση ενÞσ στενÞτατου δρÞµου -ίσωσ και ανύπαρκτου- που θα έπρεπε να επιτρέψει τη διάσωση του βιοτικού επιπέδου των Ελλήνων και, παράλληλα, να καταφέρει η χώρα να µείνει αγκιστρωµένη στο κοινÞ ευρωπαϊκÞ νÞµισµα». εννέα νεÞτερα µέλη τησ οικογένειασ Λάτση, καθώσ και στο ίδρυµα µε την επωνυµία «John S. Latsis Public Benefit Foundation», έτσι ώστε κάθε ένασ απÞ τουσ διάδοχουσ µετÞχουσ να αποκτήσει ποσοστÞ περίπου 4,4%, ενώ ο Ùµιλοσ EFG θα διατηρήσει ποσοστÞ 1,15%. Σύµφωνα µε την επίσηµη ανακοίνωση τησ τράπεζασ, ο διοικητικÞσ διαχωρισµÞσ αποτελεί απÞρροια των πρÞσφατων εξελίξεων. Συγκεκριµένα, µε δεδοµένεσ τισ συνθήκεσ που έχουν διαµορφωθεί στην ελληνική οικονοµία, οι ευρωπαϊκέσ εποπτικέσ αρχέσ κατέστησαν σαφή την ανάγκη για πλήρη διαχωρισµÞ των δύο Οµίλων, διοικητικά, διαχειριστικά και λογιστικά, ούτωσ ώστε οι ελληνικέσ δραστηριÞτητεσ και η εκάστοτε αξιολÞγηση του ελληνικού κινδύνου να µην επηρεάζουν τισ δραστηριÞτητεσ του Οµίλου EFG στον ευαίσθητο χώρο του private banking διεθνώσ.

25 IΟΥΛΙΟΥ, 2012


8/20 | ΑΓΟΡΑ

∂›ÛËÌË ·ÚÔ˘Û›·ÛË ÙÔ˘ Ó¤Ô˘ Toyota GT86 Τα γκάζια στο τέρµα, το στροφÞµετρο στα κÞκκινα και το γρύλισµα τησ µηχανήσ που αντηχούσε στην πίστα έφερνε ρίγη συγκίνησησ ανασύροντασ παλιέσ µνήµεσ απÞ άλλεσ εποχέσ. ΤÞτε που η απÞλαυση τησ οδήγησησ ήταν αυθεντική και απέριττη. ΑυτÞ ένοιωσαν Þσοι παρευρέθηκαν στην πρώτη επίσηµη παρουσίαση του νέου Toyota GT86. Το πάθοσ επέστρεψε. Και είναι οριστικÞ. Η Toyota επιστρέφει στη γνήσια οδηγική απÞλαυση τησ καθαρήσ ιπποδύναµησ, µε το µοναδικÞ συνδυασµÞ του εµπρÞσ τοποθετηµένου επίπεδου 2λιτρου βενζινοκινητήρα (boxer) τεχνολογίασ D-4S και τησ πίσω κίνησησ (RWD). Βασισµένο σε µια εντελώσ νέα πλατφÞρµα, το GT86 έχει χαµηλÞ και εξαιρετικά αεροδυναµικÞ αµάξωµα που ταιριάζει τέλεια πάνω στα µηχανικά σηµεία, κάνοντάσ το έτσι το πιο συµπαγέσ 4θέσιο σπορ Þχηµα στον κÞσµο. Ο νέοσ κινητήρασ αποδίδει 200 DIN/hp στισ 7000 rpm και µέγιστη ροπή 205 Nm στισ 6600 rpm, χαρίζοντασ στο GT86 συναρπαστικά δυναµικέσ επιδÞσεισ αλλά ταυτÞχρονα πετυχαίνει χαµηλή κατανάλωση καυσίµων, για ένα αυτοκίνητο τέτοιων δυνατοτήτων, που φτάνει µÞλισ 7.8 λ/100χλµ.

™˘ÓÂÚÁ·Û›· ∆∂¶∞∫ Ì Microsoft ∫‡ÚÔ˘ Το ΤεχνολογικÞ Πανεπιστήµιο Κύπρου και η Microsoft Cyprus υπÞγραψαν συµφωνία συνεργασίασ για τη δηµιουργία ερευνητικού εργαστήριου στο τµήµα Πολυµέσων και Γραφικών Τεχνών του ΤΕΠΑΚ στον τοµέα των Παιχνιδιών Ηλεκτρονικών Υπολογιστών. H συµφωνία υπογράφτηκε πρÞσφατα, εκ µέρουσ του ΤΕΠΑΚ απÞ τον πρÞεδρο του τµήµατοσ Πολυµέσων και Γραφικών Τεχνών, Αναπληρωτή Καθηγητή Παναγιώτη Ζαφείρη και εκ µέρουσ τησ Microsoft Cyprus απÞ τον Developer and Platform Evangelist τησ εταιρείασ, κ. Βαλεντίνο Γεωργιάδη. Το νέο εργαστήριο θα έχει την επωνυµία “Microsoft Computer Games and Entertainment Technologies Laboratory”. Θα χρησιµοποιείται για διδακτικούσ σκοπούσ για τα µεταπτυχιακά προγράµµατα του τµήµατοσ και για ερευνητικούσ σκοπούσ σε ερευνητικέσ περιοχέσ µε εφαρµογέσ στα παιχνίδια ηλεκτρονικών υπολογιστών, εικονικούσ κÞσµουσ πραγµατικού χρÞνου, νέεσ τεχνολογίεσ αλληλεπίδρασησ και ψυχαγωγίασ. Η Microsoft Cyprus θα ενισχύσει αυτή την προσπάθεια µε σηµαντική δωρεά εξοπλισµού, Þπωσ Xbox, Kinect, Windows Phone, Windows 8 Tablets και προβολήσ του εργαστηρίου.

¶ÚˆÙÔÔÚÈ·Îfi ÚfiÁÚ·ÌÌ· ·fi ÙËÓ EuroLife Πραγµατοποιήθηκε στα κεντρικά γραφεία τησ EuroLife η απονοµή των πιστοποιητικών παρακολούθησησ των 10 επιστηµÞνων που ολοκλήρωσαν το πρÞγραµµα «Αργοναύτησ» κατά τισ περιÞδουσ ∆εκέµβριο 2011 – Απριλίου 2012 και Μάρτιο – Ιούλιο 2012. Ùπωσ είναι ήδη γνωστÞ το πρÞγραµµα εργασιακήσ κατάρτισησ για νέουσ επιστήµονεσ «Αργοναύτησ» γίνεται απÞ το κέντρο ερευνών και µελετών Ακτή και την ασφαλιστική εταιρεία Eurolife. Το πρωτοποριακÞ πρÞγραµµα είναι µια µοναδική ενέργεια µε στÞχο την εµπλοκή των νέων επιστηµÞνων τησ Κύπρου στην εφαρµοσµένη έρευνα για περιβαλλοντικά θέµατα που τÞσο ανάγκη έχει ο τÞποσ µασ, δίνοντασ τουσ επίσησ τη δυνατÞτητα τησ ετεροαπασχÞλησησ και τησ απÞκτησησ εργασιακήσ εµπειρίασ. Οι 10 επιστήµονεσ που ολοκλήρωσαν το πεντάµηνο πρÞγραµµα Αναστασία Γεωργίου, Ειρήνη Κυριάκου, Κωνσταντίνοσ ΜονÞσ, Τατιάνα Χατζηγεωργίου, Άντρη Χριστοδούλου, Κρίστια Αλεξάνδρου , Σάββασ Ευτύχησ, Χριστιάνα Κέντα, Έλενα ΚÞκκινου, Κωνσταντίνοσ Σαββίδησ Στη φωτογραφεία οι «Αργοναύτεσ».

¶∂∆ƒ√§π¡∞: ¢ˆÚÂ¿Ó „ÒÓÈ· ·Í›·˜ €5 500 Κληρώθηκαν οι πέντε µεγάλοι τυχεροί τησ προωθητικήσ ενέργειασ τησ ΠΕΤΡΟΛΙΝΑ «Γέµισε και ψώνισε», οι οποίοι κέρδισαν δωρεάν ψώνια αξίασ 500 ευρώ. Τυχεροί είναι οι Κώστασ Πιτσιλλίδησ, Λευκωσία (αρ. κουπονιού 088109), Κωνσταντίνοσ Παπανικολάου, Λάρνακα (αρ. κουπονιού 502055), Γιώτησ Εγκωµίτησ, ΑµµÞχωστοσ (αρ. κουπονιού 219473), Ζήνωνασ Γεωργίου, ΛεµεσÞσ (αρ. κουπονιού 082285) και Αντωνάκησ Αθηνοδώρου, Πάφοσ (αρ. κουπονιού 090808). Σε σύντοµο χαιρετισµÞ τησ η ∆ιευθύντρια ∆ηµοσίων Σχέσεων τησ ΠΕΤΡΟΛΙΝΑ, κ. Γεωργία Λευκαρίτη, ευχαρίστησε το κοινÞ για τη µαζική συµµετοχή του στο διαγωνισµÞ και συνεχάρη τουσ νικητέσ. Επίσησ, τÞνισε Þτι «η συγκεκριµένη προωθητική ενέργεια πραγµατοποιήθηκε µε στÞχο να ικανοποιήσει τισ δύο βασικέσ ανάγκεσ του καταναλωτή σήµερα που είναι τα καύσιµα και τα τρÞφιµα, λαµβάνοντασ υπÞψη την οικονοµική κρίση, τισ συνθήκεσ τησ αγοράσ, τον ανταγωνισµÞ και κυρίωσ τισ ανάγκεσ του καταναλωτή». Στισ εφτά εβδοµαδιαίεσ κληρώσεισ που πραγµατοποιήθηκαν τουσ τελευταίουσ δύο µήνεσ, 700 τυχεροί κέρδισαν κουπÞνια αξίασ 50 ευρώ για δωρεάν ψώνια απÞ επιλεγµένεσ υπεραγορέσ. Τα ονÞµατα των τυχερών αναρτήθηκαν στην ιστοσελίδα τησ ΠΕΤΡΟΛΙΝΑ

Strepsils Î·È ÙÔ Î·ÏÔη›ÚÈ Η αντισηπτική δράση των Strepsils, µε δυο ενεργά συστατικά, καταπολεµά ένα ευρύ φάσµα παθογÞνων βακτηριδίων, ενώ εξουδετερώνει πλήρωσ τον ιÞ τησ γρίπησ RSV και SARS-OcV. Οι Strepsils κυκλοφορούν σε 6 δροσιστικέσ και ευχάριστεσ γεύσεισ. Η καταπραϋντική τουσ δράση λιπαίνει το βλεννογÞνο και περιβάλλει το φάρυγγα µε τα ενεργά συστατικά, προσφέροντασ ευχάριστη αίσθηση για ώρεσ µετά τη διάλυσή τουσ. Πάρε τισ Strepsils σου και κέρδισε ένα καλοκαίρι χωρίσ πονÞλαιµο και ίσωσ ένα Þµορφο ταξίδι. Το σίγουρο είναι Þτι δεν θα χάσεισ στιγµή αυτÞ το καλοκαίρι απÞ πονÞλαιµο. Πολλοί τυχεροί φέτοσ το καλοκαίρι θα ταξιδέψουν σε ένα δηµοφιλή ευρωπαϊκÞ προορισµÞ µε δώρο εισιτήρια απÞ τισ Strepsils. Οι Strepsils εισάγονται και διανέµονται απÞ την εταιρεία Lifepharma, µέλοσ του οµίλου ΜΣ Ιακωβίδησ - MSJ Group.

µÚ·‰È¤˜ Ï¿ÙÈÓ ÛÙ· Nando’s Η Αφρο-Πορτογαλική καταγωγή των εστιατορίων Nando’s επεκτείνεται τÞσο στην κουζίνα, Þσο και στη µουσική και για το λÞγο αυτÞ, φέτοσ το καλοκαίρι, διοργανώνουν βραδιέσ λάτιν, προσκαλώντασ µασ να χορέψουµε στουσ ρυθµούσ τησ κουβανέζικησ µπάντασ Havana Vitral, µε τη συνοδεία απολαυστικών κοκτέιλ και χορταστικών πιάτων σε ειδικέσ τιµέσ. Οι βραδιέσ ξεκίνησαν απÞ τισ 5 Ιουλίου 2012 και θα συνεχιστούν µέχρι και τέλοσ Αυγούστου (26 Ιουλίου στα Nando's Λευκωσίασ και 2, 9, 23 & 30 Αυγούστου στα Nando's Λεµεσού) απÞ τισ 20:0023:00. Mambo, Cha-Cha-Cha, Rumba, Danzon και Danzonete µερικοί απÞ τουσ υπέροχουσ Κουβανέζικουσ χορούσ που θα µασ ξεσηκώσουν, στισ βραδιέσ λάτιν µε τουσ Havana Vitral, σε αρµονικÞ συνδυασµÞ µε το ολÞφρεσκο, ψηµένο στη σχάρα κοτÞπουλο των Nando's! Για κρατήσεισ στα τηλ. 22 445151 για Λευκωσία ή/και 25585832 για ΛεµεσÞ.

Moët & Chandon: N¤· ÈÛÙÔÛÂÏ›‰· Η Moët & Chandon, η σαµπάνια τησ επιτυχίασ και τησ αίγλησ απÞ το 1743 µέχρι σήµερα, αποκαλύπτει τη νέα τησ ιστοσελίδα. Θέλοντασ να µοιραστεί µε τον κÞσµο τη µαγεία τησ σαµπάνιασ, η Moët & Chandon προσφέρει µια «πολυτελή» ηλεκτρονική εµπειρία, αφιερωµένη στα σχεδÞν 270 χρÞνια επιτυχίασ του Οίκου. Επισκεφθείτε την νέα ιστοσελίδα στο και απολαύστε τισ µαγικέσ στιγµέσ που προσφέρει η Moët & Chandon, διαβάστε τη συναρπαστική ιστορία τησ σαµπάνιασ και µάθετε τα µυστικά για τον τέλειο συνδυασµÞ φαγητού και σαµπάνιασ!

July 25 - 31, 2012


Favouring the French, a lesson in perception from bonds ANALYSIS By Marius Zaharia One indebted country has pushed through unprecedented austerity measures and persuaded Europe to shore up its banks. The other has done very little and is about to roll back even some of that. Which one is paying near zero percent on its debt? Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy must be wondering what he needs to do to get his country’s borrowing costs down from levels that, over time, will bankrupt it. Just to the north, French President Francois Hollande, whose country is financially in only slightly better shape, could be forgiven for thinking financial markets were mistaking France for Germany. No matter what policy steps euro zone countries are taking individually or as a whole - the gap between the economies in the north and those in the south are growing wider, the opposite of what European leaders are trying to achieve. “Investors are drawing a dividing line along the Alps and the Pyrenees,” Rabobank rate strategist Richard McGuire said about the paradox of two debtors being treated as if they belonged to different worlds. With 10-year borrowing costs of around 7%, Spain may soon be forced out of capital markets. France, on the other hand, looks like one of the world’s safest debt markets with its debt costs some 500 basis points lower. Last week, investors even got to the point of paying what amounts to a parking fee — a negative yield — on short-term French debt. This contrasts with the picture in November last year when France was seen as the next weakest link in the euro zone after Spain and Italy and the spread, or difference, between French and Spanish 10-year yields was about half what it is now. There are a multitude of reasons for this unequal treatment on bond markets — France’s slightly stronger economy, its history of being close to Germany politically, and recent moves by

the European Central Bank. But for the moment and perhaps unwarranted, France is basking in the euro zone’s core and Spain is being hung out to dry. DISTORTED FLOWS There is an awkward feeling about the flows into French bonds, though. Investors’ view that France is the weakest of the so-called “core” group of the euro zone has not changed. France has plenty of things to put investors off. A stubbornly high budget deficit, a flagging economy, still strong financial ties with Italy and Spain and inflexible labour markets are only a few. While Hollande has managed to keep this year’s budget deficit target of 4.5% of economic output on track by raising taxes on the rich, he is yet to deliver the deep structural reforms that markets were pushing for in November. While most countries in the euro zone are lifting the retirement age, he has cut it. But he still needs to find a massive 33 bln euros worth of savings for next year. That none of this is weighing much on French bonds is mainly because investors are being driven to find yield, or return for their money, wherever they can. Germany — the bloc’s last domino — has little room to accommodate more money in its debt markets, so many investors are simply forced to ignore France’s shortcomings and boldly expand the area where they choose to deploy their cash. “France is not doing great in terms of budget deficit progress and other reforms but you need at least some yield and German paper is not going to do the trick,” Commerzbank rate strategist David Schnautz said. “Buying France is the lesser of two evils.” A key factor has also been the European Central Bank’s unconventional policy. First, the injection of almost 1 trln euros in three-year loans into the euro banking system renewed demand for Italian and Spanish bonds from their domestic banking sectors in the first part of this year.

While banks in Spain and Italy bought more risky debt from their shaken sovereigns, French banks were among those selling it to them, boosting the health of their balance sheets. Also, two weeks ago, the ECB cut the rate it charges banks for depositing cash with it overnight to zero, doing little to quell underlying concerns about Spain, but effectively taking out what was previously seen as a floor for bond yields and other euro zone interest rates. As well as the French bills, yields on short-dated bills issued by the bloc’s safest economies - Germany, the Netherlands and Finland - have recently turned negative. So, in a hunting for yield, many are now buying French bonds, which are perceived as riskier, but at least offer a bit higher returns. Ten-year French yields trade at record lows just above 2%, some 80 basis points over their equivalent in Germany. “It feels different compared to the end of last year when we saw clients excluding France from their benchmarks,” said Kommer von Trigt, a bond fund manager at Robeco, a firm managing assets worth 177 bln euros. “There is a new catalyst now, which is the ECB.” EN-CORE At the other end of the spectrum, investor perception that the euro zone’s southern periphery is at least potentially in danger of breaking off, is hammering Spain. “Euro zone without France is something that people really have to struggle with,” Commerzbank’s Schnautz said. “You can imagine a lot of things but there’s basically a point where imagination turns into fantasy.” Despite this, some investors say the French bond rally is a distortion caused by the ECB’s loose monetary condition which could prove to be transitory if the euro zone debt crisis advances further. Rabbani Wahhab, senior fixed income portfolio manager at London and Capital, a $3.2 bln fund, “deliberately” stays away from France and the peripheral markets. “Our fear for the French bonds is that they will be once again caught in the crossfire when ... things blow out again in the periphery,” Wahhab said.

Rent incentives peak on top London offices A lack of top-quality offices in London’s financial district was keeping incentives for companies to rent them in check, despite the poor economic backdrop, the chief executive of Britain’s largest listed property company Land Securities said. The shortage meant an average 12-month rent-free period on a fiveyear lease - a typical incentive used to attract new tenants - was unlikely to increase, Rob Noel said after a trading update. “Modern efficient space is evaporating,” said Noel, describing the London market for top quality office space as “supply-constrained”. Incentives like rent-free periods or paying for an office fit-out become more generous depending on the strength of the lettings market. Land Securities is developing the skyscraper known as the Walkie Talkie with Canary Wharf Group in the heart of London’s insurance district, a

sector doing relatively well despite the wider economic crisis due to its counter-cyclical nature. A 20-year deal with insurer Markel for the 26th and 27th floors of the building at a rent of 65 pounds per square foot included a rent-free period of 32 months. Noel said there were no extra incentives despite recent media reports that other sweeteners may have been included. Land Securities said 19% of the office floor space in the tower was already let or going through the legal process in its trading update. The Shard, the European Union’s tallest skyscraper, opened earlier this month, outside the financial district, though it has yet to announce its first office tenant. Developers are betting that a wave of lease breaks and expiries over the next few years will prompt tenants to move into high-quality new offices.

Traditional office space vs. near future l Demand will remain stable however office use and settings will change There will not be a significant change or fall in the amount of space required for traditional office use over the next 15-20 years, despite a fall in office-based employment, according to Colliers International’s latest white paper on space planning and the future of the workplace. What we will see, however, is a great deal of change in how office space is used and configured. Due to the growing need, as dictated by employees working within a corporate office, for flexible, collaborative space and more generous personal desk-space, this will result in an increase in the amount of space required per office-worker, counter-balancing the decline in population and rise in flexible/remote working. On an office space utilisation perspective, given the effect

on the bottom line of reducing rental outgoings, there will be increasing pressure to utilise technology and other flexible office solutions to cut the regular rent demand whilst keeping core staff happy, motivated, productive and wanting to come to work. Amidst ever more competitive labour markets, having the right workplace strategy will be key to a company’s future success. “For developers and landlords, having the right type of space which can accommodate changing layouts and needs and provide the sustainable building solutions which occupiers and investors are now demanding will be paramount to the success of an office portfolio. This is a demand not only from a corporate perspective but from staff themselves,” explained Damian Harrington, director of Research at Colliers

International, and author of the new White Paper. Further key findings from the White Paper on “Space Planning and the Future of Workplace Design”, suggest that from a corporate perspective, space optimisation (79%) and cost savings (74%) are the main reasons for companies to implement Alternative Workplace Strategies (AWS). Also, for employees, home based working (89%) and dropin spaces/hoteling (82%) top the list of AWS requirements. According to the International Data Corporation, the number of mobile workers exceeded 1 bln people in 2010 and is forecast to grow by 6% per annum over the next few years. The growing trend towards remote working will help drive demand for bespoke data centres as IT storage and management is increasingly outsourced.

July 25 - 31, 2012


Gold steady Gold held steady above a 1-1/2 week low near $1,560 an ounce hit in the previous session, although deepening worries on the euro zone debt crisis kept prices under pressure. Concerns about Spain’s finances were rekindled after a number of regions in the country sought help from Madrid, while Moody’s Investors Service changed its outlook for Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg to negative from stable. Gold has mainly followed the fortunes of the euro in recent months, shifting away from its traditional status as a so-called safe haven. The dollar index rose to a two-year high, weighing on dollar-priced commodities as they became more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. The $1,530 level has provided strong support for bullion after being tested a few times this year, analysts have said. Spot gold was little changed at $1,576.01 an ounce. Prices have been moving sideways between roughly $1,530 and $1,640 since May. Technical analysis suggested spot gold could fall towards $1,562.99 an ounce, the low in the previous session, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. Gold’s premium on platinum continued to widen, standing at nearly $184 an ounce — its widest since early June, as spot platinum stayed near a three-week low of $1,382.2 hit in the previous session.

Brent climbs above $104 Brent crude climbed above $104 per barrel as China, the world’s top energy consumer, showed signs of improvement in its economy though fears of a Spanish bailout curbed gains. China’s manufacturing output in July grew at its fastest pace in nine months, helping lift an index of activity in the country’s overall factory sector to its highest level since February and suggesting pro-growth government policies are having an impact. Brent crude gained 81 cents to $104.07 a barrel, while U.S. crude increased by 58 cents to $88.72. Brent fell more than 3% on Monday after Spain’s central bank said the euro zone’s fourth-largest economy sank deeper into recession in the second quarter, stoking fears the country was headed for a bailout. Oil prices continued to find some support from supply worries triggered by a turmoil in Syria and tensions between Iran and the West over Tehran’s nuclear program. Moderating recent threats from Iranian officials about shutting a vital oil shipping lane, a military commander was quoted on Monday as saying Iran would not close the Strait of Hormuz as long as it is able to use the shipping lane itself. China’s crude oil imports from Iran rose to their highest in nearly a year in June despite tough Western sanctions targeting Iran’s oil shipments.

Global shares inch up Asian shares inched higher, helped by improving Chinese manufacturing data, but the euro remained under pressure as surging Spanish borrowing costs stoked fears that the euro zone’s fourth-largest economy will be forced to seek a bailout. The HSBC flash China manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to a fivemonth high in July, driven up by a jump in the output sub-index and signs of an improvement in new export orders that offered some relief to fragile markets. Asian shares erased earlier losses while oil and copper rose after the Chinese data, pushing the commodity-linked Australian dollar up to $1.0288 from around $1.0265. The euro also received a temporary boost before retreating to stand not far from a two-year low against the dollar and a near 12-year low against the yen. The single currency was undermined by Moody’s changing its ratings outlook to negative for Aaa-rated Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg amid Europe’s ongoing debt crisis. “China’s PMI data beat market expectations and gave shorts a reason to cover today,” said Orient Futures derivatives director Andy Du, referring to buying by short-sellers to realize their gains on earlier bets that markets would fall. It was the first significant Chinese data in the third quarter and signalled that progrowth government policies may be gaining traction in the world’s second-largest economy. “The data gave a slight boost to markets, but whether such effects are sustainable are doubtful as Europe struggles with its problems,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager at trading company Nihon Unicom. “Government policies will underpin the Chinese economy over the longer term, but in the short-term, instability in the European situation will keep a drag, especially as Europe is a big export market for China,” he said. The euro was at $1.2126, off a 25-month low of $1.2067 hit on Monday, and stood at 94.87 yen, barely above its lowest since November 2000 of around 94.23 yen marked on Monday. Fears about Spain possibly needing a fully-fledged bailout intensified investor flight to safety and pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield down to a record low 1.3977%, while five- and 10-year German government bond yields also set new lows.

FOREX COMMENTARY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The embattled euro languished at multi-year lows versus the yen and greenback on Tuesday, having been dealt another setback after Moody’s changed to negative its outlook for Europe’s biggest economy, Germany. Moody’s also turned negative on the Netherlands and Luxembourg warning that Europe’s top-rated nations may have to increase support for indebted states such as Spain and Italy. The news saw the euro give up about 30 pips to $1.2108, not far off Monday’s trough around $1.2067 — a low not seen since June 2010. The euro last stood at $1.2117. Good support is seen at $1.2024, the 200month moving average, ahead of the psychological $1.2000. The next target is the 2010 nadir around $1.1876. Against the yen, the euro fetched 94.91, having on Monday carved out a 12-year trough of 94.23. “We anticipate to see fresh yearly lows in the EURUSD as European policy makers struggle to restore investor confidence,” said David Song, currency analyst at DailyFX. “Spain is scheduled to auction three and six-month bills on Tuesday, the outcome may highlight a greater threat for contagion, and the ongoing turmoil in Europe may continue to sap risk-taking behavior as the EU maintains a reactionary approach in addressing the debt crisis.” High-beta currencies like the Australian dollar bore the brunt of the rout in risk appetite, even underperforming the euro.The Aussie was last at $1.0262, having fallen some 1.2 percent on Monday to be well off last week’s peak of $1.0445. With the euro on the defensive, the dollar hit a two-year high against a basket of major currencies. The dollar index was at 83.734, not far off the high of 83.999. On the yen, the dollar bought 78.29, having slid to an eight-week low just under 78.00 on Monday. This week started off badly for risk assets as markets fear Spain will be next to need a full bailout amid media reports suggesting half a dozen regional authorities were ready to follow Valencia in seeking financial support from Madrid. Data on Monday showing Spain sank deeper into recession in the second quarter only served to fuel those jitters. Spanish bond yields jumped to euroera highs on Monday, while Italian yields also rose. Greece will share centre stage with Spain on Tuesday as inspectors from the international lenders return to Athens to re-launch its stalled economic plan and decide whether to keep the nation hooked up to a 130billion-euro lifeline or let it go bust. Disclaimer: The commentary appearing on this page is for indication purposes only and Eurivex does not take any responsibility for investment action taken. Nothing in this report should be considered to constitute investment advice. It is not intended, and should not be considered, as an offer, invitation, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any of the financial instruments described herein. Trading on leverage is very risky and may lead to losses.

July 25 - 31, 2012


The Food Scare drought, US wheat and corn production looks to be at or above the 2008-11 average, while soybeans will register a modest decline. Global production of corn and soybeans is still expected to grow smartly, while wheat production will fall a bit mainly thanks to a very poor harvest in Russia. Moving to exports, the USDA expects America to cut its shipments of corn and soybeans, but global exports of both are projected to rise in the high single digits. In wheat the position is reversed: US exports will grow, despite the flat harvest, but global exports will shrink a bit, again presumably due to Russia. All in all, the current data makes it difficult to build a convincing case that fundamental shortages loom. Still, traders should be alert to the possibility of more bad headline news later this year. If the US and Russian droughts worsen, harvest estimates could fall a bit further. More important, base effects will start to push up year on year comparisons in spot prices, which up till now have risen far more sluggishly than futures prices. Agricultural spot prices plunged in September 2011, meaning that they will probably soar (measured year on year) this coming autumn. Even in countries like China that import just a fraction of their total food needs, domestic prices tend to be set by the marginal

Marcuard’s Market update by GaveKal Research Alarm bells are ringing again over soaring food prices. Severe drought led the US Department of Agriculture to slash its estimates for American harvests of key crops, and futures prices for corn, wheat and soybeans rocketed up by 55%, 50% and 25% respectively since June 15th. Headlines warn of a repeat of the emerging-market food price inflation scares of 2008 and 2010, the second of which contributed to the revolutions of the Arab Spring. Ignore the headlines: things are nowhere near that bad yet. It is true that the US is the world’s leading agricultural exporter and its harvest conditions have a disproportionate effect on global food prices. But shortfalls in exports of key crops by the US look to be more than offset by increases in exports from other producers. And in fact the latest forecasts for the US harvest look dire only in comparison with the overly optimistic projections at the beginning of the year. Relative to the actual harvests of the last several years, they are broadly stable. The latest data shows that despite the impact of the

Grain prices set records, more searing heat in forecast Grain prices set record highs on Friday and weather forecasts showed little to no relief in sight from the worst U.S. drought in more than half a century, feeding worries about food inflation at home and abroad as supplies dwindle in the world’s largest grain exporter. The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said it was concerned about the spike in grain prices, but it did not yet see the current situation as a repeat of the 20072008 food crisis when high prices sparked riots in many poor countries. “We are concerned for two reasons: first the pace at which price rises are taking place and second because, at least for the time being, there seems to be no relief in prices, in particular for corn, soybeans and wheat,” said Abdolreza Abbassian, a senior economist and grain expert at the FAO. Abbassian noted, however, that rice is abundant and wheat stockpiles are better than in 2008. “We do not see any production or supply problems with rice. That is very important for food security of millions of people around the world,” he said, while cautioning that the U.S. drought would tighten world grain supplies in the coming months. At the Chicago Board of Trade, soybeans for August delivery set a new record high of $17.77-3/4 a bushel. Corn for September corn jumped to a record $8.28-3/4 a bushel, and September wheat gained 8-1/4 cents to $9.44-3/4, a new 4-year high. Much of the U.S. winter wheat crop has already been harvested, escaping the worst of the drought. But corn in the heart of the Midwest is struggling with pollination, its key growth stage, and soybeans are being stressed as they enter their podfilling stage, the key for final yields. “Everything today is focused on the weather for soybeans,” said Karl Setzer, an analyst at MaxYield Cooperative in West

Bend, Iowa. “Historically, August is when the soy yield is determined, but because everything is early this year, we are seeing the buying interest show up earlier. We know we’ve lost corn yield, but we don’t know how much.” Rains this week provided little relief, said Don Keeney, meteorologist for MDA EarthSat Weather, and more searing heat was in the forecast for the week ahead. “It will be dry and very hot in the area with temperatures in the 100s (degrees Fahrenheit) in St. Louis Sunday through Thursday, reaching 106 on Wednesday.” “It’s the same old general theme: dry in the southwest Corn Belt and some showers in the north and east,” said Drew Lerner, a meteorologist for World Weather Inc. Corn, soybean and dairy farmers in Iowa County, Wisconsin, were glad for 1-1/4 inches of rain late this week, the county’s agricultural agent Gene Schriefer said. “We are smiling, but we are going to need more rain,” he said, noting that soil below the surface was still extremely dry. “It’s going to be a case of just living hand to mouth on moisture for the rest of the summer.” The most expansive drought since 1956 was drying up waterways and slowing river shipments of commodities to U.S. Gulf export ports. One year after record flooding on some parts of the Mississippi River, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers was busy in many locations dredging areas of low water to improve channels for barges filled with grain, coal, scrap and other materials. Worries persisted about water for irrigation and use by cities and towns. Restrictions have ranged from the state of Nebraska reducing river access for some farmers to limits on watering lawns. Drip bags around stressed trees were common in many towns and cities.

Interest Rates Base Rates

LIBOR rates

CCY 0-0,25% 0.50% 0.75% 0-0,1% 0-0,25%

Swap Rates















0.25 0.57 0.12 0.14 0.03

0.34 0.64 0.19 0.16 0.05

0.45 0.78 0.32 0.20 0.07

0.73 1.05 0.62 0.33 0.17

1.06 1.53 0.96 0.55 0.38


0.45 0.78 0.64 0.27 0.02

0.51 0.78 0.71 0.27 0.06

0.63 0.85 0.84 0.29 0.13

0.79 0.98 1.01 0.32 0.24

1.15 1.34 1.34 0.44 0.53

1.56 1.87 1.70 0.71 0.89

Exchange Rates Major Cross Rates CCY1\CCY2 USD EUR GBP CHF JPY

Opening Rates

1 USD 1 EUR 1 GBP 1 CHF 1.2106 0.8260

100 JPY

















1.2676 78.89

Disclaimer: This information may not be construed as advice and in particular not as investment, legal or tax advice. Depending on your particular circumstances you must obtain advice from your respective professional advisors. Investment involves risk. The value of investments may go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee for future performance. Investments in foreign currencies are subject to exchange rate fluctuations. Marcuard Cyprus Ltd is regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySec) under License no. 131/11.




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8330 1.551 1.6153 21.1038 6.1446 12.9204 1.2106 1.653 237.63 0.5746 2.8517 0.3546 12.4500 6.0899 3.4684 3.8356 32.6614 6.9432 0.992 7.9497


1.0288 1.0188 7.7574 56.0300 78.26 1146.00 1.2652 1.2595


0.3770 6.0570 12092.9023 4.0549 0.7056 0.2818 1501 0.3850 3.6404 3.7501 8.4564 3.6728


0.7837 149.89 1819700

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import prices. So it is very likely that many emerging markets will see headline food CPI spike upward in the last few months of the year. But with actual grain supplies abundant, this will be a short-lived phenomenon, and will probably not spark either social unrest or a major shift in monetary policy.

Weekly movement of USD





















1.5510 1.2106 78.26 0.9920












Last Week %Change 1.5656 1.2296 78.91 0.9767

Bahrain Dinar Egyptian Pound Iranian Rial Israeli Shekel Jordanian Dinar Kuwait Dinar Lebanese Pound Omani Rial Qatar Rial Saudi Arabian Riyal South African Rand U.A.E. Dirham

+0.93 +1.55 -0.82 +1.57

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* USD per National Currency

July 25 - 31, 2012


SanDisk beats forecasts

Apple, Facebook take the spotlight The trend of better-than-expected earnings will be put to the test this week when investors hope Apple can exceed already high expectations and Facebook reports its first quarterly earnings WALL ST WEEKAHEAD Apple accounts for a significant proportion of the overall earnings of Standard & Poor’s 500 components. S&P 500 earnings are expected to show a rise of 5.7% in the second quarter from a year ago. Excluding the maker of the iPad, the rise is 4.8%, according to Thomson Reuters data. Apple’s results could help stocks build on last week’s gains and counter investor worries over the euro zone crisis. More signs of financial stress in Spain on Friday caused stocks to give back some of the week’s increase. The S&P 500 ended 0.4% higher last week. “Apple can drive the whole (tech) group,” said Daniel Morgan, who helps manage about $3.5 bln at Synovus Trust Company in Atlanta. “There’s a huge psychological component as it relates directly to Apple. If they just blast numbers like they did last quarter, then obviously the perception will be everybody else did pretty good and Apple did fabulous.” Apple’s expected strong performance is mainly why technology earnings growth has held up better than other S&P 500 sectors. The expected growth rate for the sector has gone from 6.9% in April to 8.7% as of Friday, the data showed. Apple’s earnings for the quarter are seen at $10.38 a share, based on Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, which includes estimates from 43 analysts. That compares with a profit of $7.79 a share for the year-ago quarter. Morgan said Apple’s growth has largely depended on the success of its new products. “For the stock, to continue its trajectory at the pace it has, it’s critical that they release these new products,” he said. Apple’s shares are up 49.2% for the year so far. Apple does not give any clues on its future products, but the California company is widely expected to release its next-generation iPhone later this year. Wall Street has also set its heart on Apple launching a new “mini iPad” and the long-awaited television set in the near future. Investors are likely to be just as keen to hear from Facebook when it reports on Thursday. Facebook’s first results following its market debut could give investors another chance to indicate how they feel about the stock since its disappointing initial public offering. Shares of Facebook, one of the most closely watched IPOs ever, lost ground after technical problems with its market debut on Nasdaq and as investors questioned its ability to rapidly increase advertising revenue. Analysts said an earnings miss by Facebook could be disastrous for the stock, which closed Friday at $28.76, below its $38 offering price. Investors are looking for executives to address a litany of concerns about the business, such as the efficacy of its online ads and the company’s nascent efforts in mobile advertising. Tech results also will be closely watched for signs of weak demand overseas, particularly from Europe. Other technology companies expected to report this week include Texas Instruments and Of the S&P sectors, technology has the highest sales exposure to Europe at about 25%, according to a Bank of America/Merrill Lynch research note. Among the other 138 S&P 500 companies reporting earnings are Ford Motor Co, United Parcel Service and Whirlpool Corp. While the majority of companies have beaten earnings expectations, revenue performance has been the worst for S&P 500 companies since the first quarter of 2009. With results in from 116 companies, just 43% of companies are beating revenue expectations. Sixty-seven percent of companies are beating earnings estimates, compared with a longterm average of 62%, Thomson Reuters data showed. “With global growth slowing down, it’s not surprising we’re going to see some mixed numbers on the revenue side,” said Natalie Trunow, chief investment officer of equities at Calvert Investment Management in Bethesda, Maryland, whose firm manages about $13 bln in assets. While earnings are expected to dominate stock investors’ attention in the coming week, the euro zone crisis is still capable of taking the spotlight. “It’s the default thing for people to focus on,” said Eric Kuby, chief investment officer at North Star Investment Management Corp. in Chicago. Spain will tap the markets Tuesday when it sells three- and six-month bills. It will also sell three- and five-year bonds on August 2. Spain’s 10-year bond yields hit a euro-era high of 7.3% on Friday. The week’s U.S. economic data includes the Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for July, due on Tuesday. June’s reading marked the lowest showing since December 2010.

SanDisk Corp beat quarterly earnings and revenue forecasts after a steep decline in margins on its flash memory chips was not as bad as feared, while the chip maker said it was optimistic about the second half. In a conference call with analysts, SanDisk said it expected third-quarter revenue of $1.15 - 1.25 bln, compared with analysts’ forecasts of $1.22 bln, while rising sales of its solid state hard drives should help improve margins by the end of the year. Shares of SanDisk, whose NAND chips are used in devices such as smartphones and cameras to store data, rose 8% to $37.77 in extended trading. “Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect to benefit from continued sequential growth in sales of our mobile embedded product and SSD’s (solid state hard drives) as well as retail fourth-quarter seasonality,” CFO Judy Bruner said. SanDisk earned just $13 mln, or 5 cents a share, in the second quarter ended July 1, down from $248 mln a year ago. Excluding items it earned 21 cents a share, while revenue fell 25% to $1.03 bln. Chipmakers like SanDisk, Micron Technology Inc, Elpida Memory Inc, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics Co Ltd all ramped up their NAND production capacity in a buoyant market for smartphones and tablets, but a glut in supply drove prices to new lows. NAND prices have fallen as much as 60% in the last year. Analysts tracking SanDisk and the NAND market estimate a 35-40% drop in NAND prices this year alone. But in the second quarter, sales through the retail channel rose 28% offsetting lower prices of commodity NAND chips sold to original equipment manufacturers. SanDisk, unlike some of its peers, also gets significant revenue from retail sales. That includes SanDisk-branded pen drives and hard disk drives sold directly to end customers.

UK firms pay €23 bln in dividends UK companies paid a record 22.6 bln pounds ($35.50 bln) in dividends in the second quarter as many firms baulked at spending bumper cash piles on deal making or other forms of capital expenditure in the face of the global economic slowdown. The quarter, which usually sees the biggest dividend payouts, was the sixth consecutive quarter of growth and took the half-year total to 41.4 bln pounds, a 21.3% gain on 2011 and the fastest period of growth since 2007, Capita Registrars said in a report. As a result, the firm updated its expected full-year total for UK firms by 2 bln pounds to 78.3 bln. Large special dividends by the likes of Old Mutual, GlaxoSmithKline and Antofagasta all boosted the quarterly total, although structural growth was also seen. “Cash flow is still strong, yet corporate investment is very depressed. Dividends are one destination for the large cash surpluses that companies have accumulated as a result,” Charles Cryer, chief executive of Capita Registrars said. “Even without the record special payments, underlying dividend growth has surpassed our expectations with its strength. Looking ahead, however, Cryer added he was more cautious about 2013.

When will Maruti reopen? Maruti Suzuki has no idea when a factory hit by a deadly riot last week will reopen, the Indian carmaker’s chairman acknowledged on Saturday, saying it was impossible to import extra vehicles or shift lost production to another plant. India’s biggest car company stopped production at a factory in the north of the country on Wednesday after a manager was killed and scores injured after a mob of workers attacked officials, smashed equipment and set fire to parts of the plant. Trade unionists have accused Maruti of “anti-union” activities at the plant, shut for weeks last year due to labour unrest. The Manesar factory, with a total annual capacity of 550,000 cars — a third of Maruti’s output — is likely to stay closed for at least two weeks, analysts told Reuters, at a cost to the company of around $15 mln a day. More than $570 mln was wiped off Maruti’s market value on Thursday when its shares slid to their biggest one-day drop in two years. Shares of parent Suzuki Motor Corp fell a total of 5.7% in trading on Thursday and Friday to their lowest level in three and a half years.

China trading fees cut to boost confidence China’s securities regulator is planning another transaction fee cut before the start of September, the China Securities Journal reported on Saturday, which would be the third such moved this year aimed at shoring up investor confidence in the bourses. The China Securities Regulatory Commission is expected to cut trading transaction fees by around 20% and is also working with the country’s insurance regulator to launch investment guidelines for insurers, the paper said, citing an unidentified CSRC official from a press conference. On June 1, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges lowered the transaction costs of A shares by 25%, and cut the transaction commissions of futures products by 30%. Last week, CSRC also halved supervisory fees to stock and futures trading and eliminated fees applied to mutual fund and bond trades.

July 25 - 31, 2012


July 25 - 31, 2012


Italian gaming liberalisation: a bet that did not pay off l Italy is Europe’s biggest market where gambling is possible even at post offices,

but the Mafias use legal gaming to launder their billions Even in a time of deep economic crisis, the promise of a jackpot lurks on every Italian street corner. In one central neighbourhood near the ancient walls of Rome, one can gamble at a slot-machine and bingo parlour in a former cinema, at a bar with chirping video-betting games, at a hall for horse races, at a tobacco shop that sells a dozen varieties of lottery tickets and even at a local post office that sells scratch-and-win cards - all in a two-block radius. Italy is now Europe’s biggest gambling market and one of the biggest in the world, undermining consumer spending in the euro zone’s third-largest economy at a time of severe recession and pushing a mounting number of gambling addicts onto the streets. “In today’s slightly desperate Italy, people gamble in hopes for a miracle,” Andrea Riccardi, Italy’s minister for international cooperation and integration, told Reuters. Riccardi is a founder of Sant’Egidio, a Christian charity in Rome that has been increasingly flooded with problem gamblers since Italy started to relax regulations around the gaming industry two decades ago. At first the new industry generated welcome state revenue and undercut the illegal gambling market dominated by organised crime, Italy’s most destructive economic and social problem. But revenues have risen only marginally while turnover more than quadrupled since 2001 to 80 bln euros last year, and the mob has simply shifted into legal gambling. Government ministers like Riccardi and some lawmakers argue that deregulation has gone too far and want more rules, but no one is proposing a dramatic reversal. For Prime Minister Mario Monti, who came to power in November promising to overhaul Italy’s moribund economy through deregulation, the story of gambling liberalisation is a cautionary tale. SHOW ME THE MONEY Gambling deregulation began in 1992 when Italy was in dire need of fresh tax revenue during an economic crisis much like the one it finds itself in today. It gathered pace under Monti’s predecessor, Silvio Berlusconi, in 2001. But receipts are not rising at the same rate as revenues. Tax revenue was more than 8.5 bln euros last year but increased by less than 3 bln euros between 2001 and 2011 while total consumer spending on gambling rose by 60 bln euros, data from the state agency overseeing the industry show. Italians pay a 21% sales tax on most non-food consumer goods, but gambling ventures enjoyed low taxes to create incentives. The average tax on gaming revenue was less than 11% in 2011. While many economists forecast Italy’s economy will contract by about 2% this year, gambling revenue is expected to rise by more than 12% to more than 90 bln euros – 5% of the nation’s GDP. Estimates circulated within the Italian gaming industry indicate Italy generated about a quarter of the entire world’s $368 bln gaming revenue in 2010.

that studies politics, economics and social issues. “You lead people to ruin like this,” said Marco Dominioni, a slot-machine gambling addict who amassed huge debts, became estranged from his family, and ended up on living on the streets. The 53-year-old was one of 21 people seated at Prime Minister Monti’s table during a May visit to a Rome soup kitchen for the poor run by the Sant’Egidio charity.

A GIANT SUCKING SOUND Unlike a manufacturer of consumer goods, “gaming produces no wealth. It redistributes it,” said Luigi Guiso, an economist at the Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance in Rome. Fiat, excluding its American unit Chrysler, had less than half the revenue of the gambling industry last year, but car production supports a network of other industries that create about a million Italian jobs, 10 times those in gaming. “When there’s a recession, more consumer spending is needed to overcome it. But the gambling industry is sucking demand out of the economy,” said Maurizio Fiasco, a sociologist and one of the leading experts on Italy’s gaming industry. Massimo Passamonti, the president of Confindustria Sistema Gioco Italia which represents gaming companies in Italy, denied his industry was a drag on the economy. “Just to take one example, the number of skilled workers directly employed in the sector in the last few years has more than tripled: in 2004 there were about 6,000, now there are over 20,000 in total,” he said. Another 80,000 were indirectly employed by the sector, he said. COGNITIVE TRAP Before liberalisation, Italian gambling was limited to lotteries or filling out a “schedina”, or betting slip, to wager on the Sunday afternoon soccer games. Other games of chance were limited to the country’s four legal casinos in the vacation spots of Venice, San Remo, Saint Vincent and Campione d’Italia - establishments that have suffered tough times since the state began to legalise slot machines, sports betting and online gambling. Buyers of state concessions were awarded low tax rates that permitted them to set high payout percentages in order to stimulate interest in new games. That means that a slot or online player would receive several small payouts that created a “cognitive trap,” or the illusion that the odds could be beat, according to Fiasco, who is also a sociologist for the national usury consultancy. The result is that more people play than ever before, 700,000 Italians are addicted to gambling and the country’s 400,000 video slot machines now account for more than half of all betting, according to Eurispes, a Rome-based research institute

Intralot clinches Italy deal Greece’s Intralot announced that its subsidiary Intralot Italia was selected as B2B technological partner of the Swedish online gambling operator Betsson to support its operation in Italy. The agreement entails the provision of Intralot’s interactive gaming platform and in this context the company has successfully launched Betsson’s online casino website ( accessible to Italian punters. “This agreement proves Intralot’s ability to become the technological partner of prominent online gaming operators as Intralot is among the candidates for the implementation OPAP’s

internet strategy,” said Dimitris Birbos, analyst at the Investment Bank of Greece, a Laiki Group subsidiary. “We focus on the existing IT contract with OPAP that expires on July 30 and most possibly will be extended for some months, as the Greek betting monopoly has not selected its new IT partner yet,” Bribos said, adding that “the renewal of the contract with OPAP will provide more visibility for the medium-term, increasing the likelihood for an upward revision of our recommendation on the stock in the short-term.” The stock was last trading at 94c for a market cap of 149.4 mln euros. The IBG maintains a ‘hold’ recommendation.

THE WINNERS Dominioni’s story is typical of problem gamblers unique to Italy. During the first three months of the year, as consumer spending fell and the recession deepened, Lottomatica, the country’s only publicly traded concession owner, had a record quarter, with Italian machine wagers gaining more than 35% to 3.2 bln euros, chief executive Marco Sala said. Both of Europe’s top two bookmakers, Paddy Power and William Hill, opened online casinos here in the past year. But the biggest winners are the mafia clans. Organised crime is a pathological and seemingly insoluble problem that has weighed on Italy’s real economy for more than 150 years. The mob proved its resilience once again in its response to the challenge of gaming liberalisation. When slot machines were made legal, the mafia simply invested in legal gambling concerns. The Sicilian Mafia, Calabria’s ‘Ndrangheta and the Camorra near Naples have set up legitimate gambling businesses all over Italy with the help of front men without criminal records, parliament’s anti-mafia commission said. “Legal gambling ... because of the guaranteed high income levels and the relatively low judicial risk, has by now become the new frontier for organised crime,” Gianfranco Donadio, a magistrate in the national anti-mafia prosecutor’s office, told the commission. Donadio said that the mob was using the gaming industry to launder billions of euros gained illegally through drug trafficking, arms smuggling, prostitution, loan sharking, and racketeering. “Italy’s gambling system is perverse,” said lawmaker Laura Garavini, the head of the Democratic Party’s (PD) contingent in the anti-mafia commission. “There’s no doubt that more rules are needed to better regulate the industry.” But just as liberalisation can benefit the wrong people and does not always bring tax windfalls, the gaming example also shows vested interests in parliament can make it hard to undo. Garavini is one of a handful of lawmakers who is seeking new rules for the gambling market, but no one is proposing reversing what has already been legalised, for example by closing down slot machines in bars as France has done. Garavini is backing a law that would regulate advertising, officially denominate problem gambling as a sickness covered by the state health-care system and forbid ownership of concessions by anyone with family ties to the mob. Garavini, a member of one of the main parties supporting Monti, is lobbying the government to take a harder line, especially against the mob, but she admits that there is no political support for a major overhaul of the industry.

July 25 - 31, 2012


Exasperated lenders get blunt l Troika “angry but mostly fed up”, returns this week to decide on aid The IMF’s mission chief for Greece, Poul Thomsen, walked grim-faced into his first meeting with newly elected Prime Minister Antonis Samaras on July 5 wearing a black tie looking as if he was going to a funeral. Whether he was making a point or not, the first meet-andgreet visit by Greece’s exasperated international lenders with the new government was blunt, both sides told Reuters. “Talking to them was like going to a doctor, who is looking over your tests shaking his head, and you’re wondering if you are going to live or die,” a senior Greek government official told Reuters after the visit. Now, the same Greek officials are preparing for a new and crucial round of talks starting this week. For three days earlier this month, senior inspectors from the troika of the International Monetary Fund, European Commission and European Central Bank rushed in and out of ministers’ offices with their heads down, clutching files and avoiding reporters. The meetings reviewed a track record of two years of broken promises to international lenders, who have pledged a total 240 bln euros to pull the euro zone member back from the brink of bankruptcy. The coalition government is racing against the clock to come up with cuts and reforms before the troika returns for a formal inspection to decide whether to grant another loan installment in September. “As we suspected, they have fallen quite badly behind due to the election campaign and they are trying very hard to put the train back on track. The main task

now is to see how we can get restarted,” said a troika official. ANGRY AND FED UP The first visit did not try to resolve specific problems but set a new tone for the relationship between Greece and its partners, making clear there was no time to waste on diplomatic niceties, and not much trust in the bank. “They were clear and direct - as long as we produce results they will continue to support us, otherwise they will not,” said a minister whose predecessor had fallen behind targets. At another ministry, the message was equally no-nonsense, an aide said: “They were angry but mostly fed up. They said Greece would not get any money unless it showed some progress.” Among a long list of failures, Athens has not completed any substantial privatisations and is behind on tax reform, restructuring the public sector and properly opening up markets and professions. Poor tax revenues mean it will likely miss a 2012 deficit target of 7.3% of GDP. Greece blames its failings on a deeper than expected recession and wants two more years to catch up. The troika says half-hearted reforms are to blame for holding the economy back. The lenders are demanding extra cuts to the dismay of an austerity-hit public, which has often taken to the streets. Samaras, initially a fervent opponent of the first bailout deal, has said he accepts the targets of the second plan but wants to change some policies in view of Greece’s worst recession in decades, estimated at close to a 7% contraction this year.

EIB to loan €1.4 bln to SMEs The European Investment Bank (EIB), the European Union’s long-term investment arm, will provide 1.44 bln euros in loans to struggling Greek firms, providing a stimulus to the debt-laden country’s ailing economy. With banks dependent on ECB cash to survive and reluctant to finance any but the biggest companies, Athens and the EU have been pushing the EIB to step into the breach. But the EIB hesitated for months, worried about getting too exposed to Greece, as financing for Greek projects had dried up to a mere 10 mln euros this year, Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras told reporters after meeting EIB chief Werner Hoyer. “The EIB will re-activate its engagement in Greece as soon as possible,” Stournaras said. “It seems there can also be good news in this country,” said Development Minister

Costis Hatzidakis. The EIB will disburse the loans over the next three years to small and medium-sized enterprises, using Greek banks as intermediaries. It will also help Greece push ahead with road construction, foreign investment and privatisation projects, Hatzidakis said without giving details. As a way to help boost growth, the EU has already increased its share of financing in certain co-financed projects. It has also said it would help Athens cut red tape to make more efficient use of EU funds earmarked for it. Greece is entitled to 20 bln euros in so-called EU structural funds for the period 2007-2013. But it has only used 8 bln euros so far — partly because of red tape and partly because it could not provide adequate funds to match EU grants for certain projects.

More Jumbo stores in Athens, Sofia, Cyprus Toys and clothing retailer Jumbo announced that its sales for the financial year July 2011-June 2012 increased by 0.88% y-o-y settling at EUR 494.29 mln, in line with its guidance for sales growth between 0% and 1%. This is slightly above analyst estimates for annual sales, according to Dimitris Birbos at the Investment Bank of Greece. On a quarterly basis, Jumbo sales retreated by 2.8% y-o-y to EUR 114 mln mainly due to the earlier celebration of the Orthodox Easter this year. The company also announced that the positive growth rate in sales was accompanied by positive growth in net income for FY11-12, which implies an upward revision against its previous guidance for flat earnings. The company will hold an EGM on July 25 in which the management will propose a special dividend of 21c per share in the form of a share capital return. Meanwhile, a new leased store of 8.000 sq.m. will operate in Nea Filadelfeia (Athens) in the coming months, while Jumbo will add two new stores in its network until December

2012: a leased store in Palaio Faliro (Athens) and an owned store in Sofia of 12,000sq.m. In addition, the company is planning operate two more stores in Greece and one more in Cyprus during the second half of the next financial year 2012/2013. “This is positive news for Jumbo that proves once again the company’s resilience amid a deteriorating economic environment in Greece, while the deviation against our current estimates is very small. We stick to our ‘accumulate’ recommendation on the stock,” added Birbos.

“They didn’t exactly order us not to renegotiate but they strongly advised that it would be a good idea not to raise the issue now, before the new government shows it is serious about catching up,” said a government official. Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras, a technocrat who took over the hot seat, was hastily sworn in by black-robed priests an hour before his first meeting with the troika. A respected economist, he was no stranger to the lenders who had sought his feedback in the past as head of the prestigious IOBE think tank. Stournaras took the troika message seriously and avoided any mention of renegotiating the bailout when he attended his first Eurogroup meeting, a move the lenders welcomed. “He understands the problems and is serious but he is alone,” a troika official told Reuters. The government is now scrambling to catch up. At the top of its list is a pledge to come up with an additional 11.7 bln euros worth of cuts for 2013-14, a task Greece was initially slated to finish in June. Just days before the troika arrived, it had found around 8 bln euros of those cuts and was still looking for the rest. Part of the problem was that ministers asked to come up with savings did not produce enough cuts and were sent back to the drawing table. Susbtantial as those cuts are, to the lenders, they are just the tip of the iceberg - resistance to reform from ministry workers and tax officers, unionists and industries used to easy profit has long been at the heart of Greece’s woes.

EFG Eurobank to bid for Emporiki Eurobank Ergasias Deputy CEO Michalis Colakides said that the bank plans to bid for Credit Agricole’s subsidiary Emporiki Bank, according to a report by Bloomberg. Press reports also suggest that any offer for Emporiki will form a part of the Greek bank recapitalisation plan, whose terms have yet to be determined, and will be agreed to with the troika. Colakides said that a deadline to complete the recapitalisation of Greek banks by September is “unrealistic”. The bank also announced that EFG Group, its largest shareholder with a 44.7% stake, will transfer 43.55% to nine younger members of the Latsis family and to the John S. Latsis Public Benefit Foundation, each of whom will hold 4.4% of Eurobank shares, while the EFG Group will retain 1.15%.

DEH plans on hold The Greek government did not disclose its plans over PPC/DEH’s privatisation during last week’s AGM. The General Secretary of the Ministry of Energy reportedly stated that “we should not reinvent the wheel”, probably implying that the government may choose the Italian model for the liberalisation of the Greek energy market. PPC’s CEO Arthouros Zervos highlighted the distortions in the market stemming from the variable-cost recovery mechanism, asking for the change or the abolition of this mechanism that is estimated to cost the utility about EUR 270 mln in 2012. Finally, labour union representatives expressed the opposition of employees on the sale of lignite-powered units, the privatisation of the company and potential personnel layoffs. According to the daily Imerisia, Zervos indirectly referred to the need for an increase in electricity tariffs, adding that the company had achieved a reduction in overdue bills in May and June. Kathimerini reported that PPC submitted its cost model to the energy regulator from which a 29.8% increase in its tariffs is considered necessary. On the other hand, the new Energy Minister stated that no new electricity tariffs are being considered for the time being, adding that alternative actions are being examined to address problems that have arisen in the operation of the electricity market.

July 25 - 31, 2012







Book Value

Shares ('000) Aριθµός µετοχών

Value euro Aξία EUR

Cap. ('000) Kεφαλ. EUR

Per Share euro Λογιστική αξία

Price to


Book Value 2010 Times EUR ('000) Tιµή προς Κέρδη µετά λογιστ. αξ. φορολ.



1 795 141 1 611 111 579 914 74 080 460 547 246 214 80 966

1.00 0.10 0.43 0.35 0.17 0.35 0.35

403 907 116 000 102 065 21 854 9 671 18 220 5 587 677 303

1.54 0.38 1.45 0.78 0.25 0.53 1.72 0.95

0.15 0.19 0.12 0.38 0.08 0.14 0.04 0.16



114 252 71 936 175 000 182 725 285 713 13 416 38 750 60 250 8 200 90 804 45 000 35 000 48 006

0.34 0.43 0.34 0.17 0.27 0.35 0.17 0.35 1.03 0.10 0.17 0.35 0.35

114 320 26 616 27 650 31 063 14 857 3 770 5 231 7 893 5 223 3 541 4 275 3 710 2 400 250 551

1.75 3.04 0.45 0.26 0.27 4.39 0.33 0.68 3.50 0.09 0.12 1.69 0.56 1.32

0.15 0.12 0.35 0.66 0.19 0.06 0.41 0.19 0.18 0.44 0.78 0.06 0.09 0.28

6 217 11 604 15 818 3 173 8 578 4 996 21 119 9 433 2 779 7 085 3 000 201 5 408 2 881 11 250 7 314 6 261 1 336 20 642 4 130 35 911 2 096 7 290 810 5 600 6 967 39 239 627 4 760 1 874 11 000 447 956 14 250 2 158 12 036 4 371 1 971 7 118 7 346 1 568 149 15 875 464 29 710 773 58 625 1 547 18 012 5 816 2 729 1 980 2 557 3 991 6 825 386 3 175 414 200 75 000 549 848

0.90 0.06 0.51 0.04 0.52 0.02 0.73 0.29 0.77 0.51 0.25 0.46 0.44 0.09 0.75 0.65 0.12 0.36 1.66 7.84 1.82 0.49 0.23 0.35 0.76 0.06 0.05 0.20 0.79 2.47 0.62 0.07 0.12 3.71 0.48 0.74 0.36 0.41 0.94 0.62 0.14 0.02 0.57 0.22 0.24 0.36 1.29 0.42 0.04 3.43 0.04 0.16 0.52 1.89 2.34 0.05 0.41 0.04 0.12 0.15 0.75

0.19 1.50 0.31 0.57 0.15 2.27 0.74 0.44 0.23 0.10 0.24 0.04 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.46 0.26 0.73 0.09 0.17 0.21 0.29 0.39 0.17 0.46 0.33 16.40 0.10 0.18 0.16 0.18 0.27 1.04 0.12 0.25 0.80 0.20 0.56 0.07 0.27 0.14 0.43 0.45 0.04 0.29 0.22 0.52 0.17 1.67 0.47 0.25 0.38 0.13 0.03 0.09 0.64 0.50 0.17 6.61 0.74



36 572 128 936 98 861 158 660 107 226 99 925 39 109 72 562 15 438 141 692 50 000 10 070 108 163 288 141 160 714 24 379 208 700 5 140 137 611 3 059 92 079 14 973 80 999 13 506 16 000 348 333 47 853 31 344 34 000 4 805 100 000 22 343 7 967 30 978 17 985 20 400 62 446 8 571 101 683 43 211 78 415 14 900 61 056 46 355 424 435 9 660 87 500 22 100 300 194 3 590 272 915 33 000 36 529 66 520 32 500 38 581 12 212 20 700 9 988 75 000

0.35 0.17 0.26 0.09 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.17 0.43 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.08 0.35 0.17 0.87 0.43 0.43 1.73 0.85 0.43 0.09 0.35 0.62 0.09 0.87 0.09 0.29 0.87 0.17 0.34 0.35 0.43 0.31 0.43 0.20 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.17 0.14 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.35 0.35 0.34 0.17 1.73 0.03 0.17 0.43 1.00 0.69 0.17 0.34 0.03 0.05 $ 0.10

6M 2011 EUR ('000) Kέρδη 2011

6M 2012 EUR ('000) Kέρδη 2012


2011 EUR ('000) Κέρδη µετά φορολ.

3M '11 74 000 71 017 916 2 194 -17 892 1 039 346 131 620

3M '12 295 000 54 819 8 063 2 400 -20 414 -3 103 -1 504 335 261


6M '11

6M '12


-1 371 000 -3 650 380 -100 658 3 585 -82 674 -6 894 -8 648 -5 216 669

8 848 1 310 6 309 4 108 -47 25 987 -1 903 -703 2 574 -8 419 -1 453 456 71 37 138



6 674 -1 174 245 4 122 -1 734 2 133 -1 600 -77 -947 -2 667 -1 333 759 -1 302 3 099


6M '11

6M '12


-5 391

-16 719



-1 396




-6 914

-17 767

373 -12 265 2 334 -2 594 -2 121 -6 400 2 306 -2 754 570 -3 519 -7 900 -375 -3 942 -7 654 -4 006 -65 -3 921 -513 -4 630 -4 127 5 693 1 104 1 604 -526 -257 -551 -212 -15 562 1 608 5 130 -2 198 -110 -3 948 -804 100 -1 392 -438 -6 299 1 345 -3 185 -281 2 076 -2 192 -16 880 -1 314 10 753 -868 -6 352 73 151 546 964 -19 100 1 577 -1 737 -689 11 -37 2 753 -110 647

Earnings Per

Dividend Per

Dividend Yield


Share 2011 Cents


Results Cents


306 000 87 100 8 889 3 274 -10 243 -17 397 3 328 380 951

1 767 -3 960 4 363 -5 724 -1 339 -11 422 4 108 -2 203 257 -6 512 1 542 -622 -3 641 -7 007 440 -157 1 211 -1 031 -6 432 568 13 270 1 157 2 183 -380 575 -5 602 -504 -980 1 048 614 -1 668 -844 -738 -3 358 -760 969 -2 094 -501 -3 469 -1 746 -4 952 -594 5 981 -9 573 -9 238 313 8 617 11 -5 231 362 14 344 131 -9 983 1 165 -1 062 -181 -25 -43 -330 -62 896

P/E ratio 2011

n/a n/a n/a 6.10 n/a n/a n/a 0.20

4.38 n/a 112.86 7.54 n/a 1.77 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 4.89 n/a 14.23

2012 Low High EUR EUR Aνώτατο Kατώτατο

Last Close EUR Kλείσιµο

Price 31/12/2011 EUR Tιµή 31/12/2011

31/12/2011 Ποσ. Μετ. 31/12/2011

% Change


385.85 134.85 365.45

117.13 45.42 116.68

117.13 45.42 141.46

295.94 104.60 196.84

-60.42 -56.58 -28.13

377.70 0.76 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.04 0.08 0.12

107.84 0.23 0.07 0.17 0.26 0.02 0.05 0.07

107.84 0.23 0.07 0.18 0.30 0.02 0.07 0.07

286.83 0.61 0.30 0.36 0.27 0.04 0.05 0.12

-62.40 -63.11 -75.76 -51.25 9.67 -43.24 45.10 -42.98

Cents -76.37 -226.58 -17.36 4.84 -17.95 -2.80 -10.68





Cents 5.84 -1.63 0.14 2.26 -0.61 15.90 -4.13 -0.13 -11.55 -2.94 -2.96 2.17 -2.71

Cents 5.80

% 22.66

704.24 0.34 0.57 0.17 0.20 0.07 1.10 0.18 0.14 0.65 0.05 0.10 0.12 0.07

573.74 0.26 0.35 0.13 0.16 0.05 0.28 0.13 0.10 0.58 0.03 0.09 0.08 0.05

574.76 0.26 0.37 0.16 0.17 0.05 0.28 0.14 0.13 0.64 0.04 0.10 0.11 0.05

656.6 0.32 0.35 0.167 0.18 0.06 1.00 0.18 0.11 0.63 0.05 0.10 0.08 0.06

-12.46 -19.75 7.25 -5.39 -5.03 -17.46 -71.90 -25.00 19.09 1.11 -17.02 -3.06 27.71 -16.67

Cents 1.02 -9.51 2.36 -1.63 -1.98 -6.40 5.90 -3.80 3.69 -2.48 -15.80 -3.72 -3.64 -2.66 -2.49 -0.27 -1.88 -9.98 -3.36 -134.91 6.18 7.37 1.98 -3.89 -1.61 -1.15 -0.68 -45.77 33.47 5.13 -9.84 -1.38 -12.74 -4.47 0.49 -2.23 -5.11 -6.19 3.11 -4.06 -1.89 3.40 -4.73 -3.98 -13.60 12.29 -3.93 -2.12 2.03 0.06 1.65 2.64 -28.71 4.85 -4.50 -5.64 0.05 -0.37 3.67















668.90 0.17 0.09 0.16 0.02 0.08 0.05 0.54 0.13 0.18 0.05 0.06 0.02 0.05 0.01 0.07 0.30 0.03 0.26 0.15 1.35 0.39 0.14 0.09 0.06 0.35 0.02 0.82 0.02 0.14 0.39 0.11 0.02 0.12 0.46 0.12 0.59 0.07 0.23 0.07 0.17 0.02 0.01 0.26 0.01 0.07 0.08 0.67 0.07 0.06 1.62 0.01 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.21 0.01 0.26 0.02 0.02 1.00

738.87 0.17 0.11 0.16 0.02 0.10 0.05 0.83 0.16 0.21 0.07 0.06 0.02 0.05 0.01 0.09 0.31 0.05 0.32 0.18 3.20 0.32 0.17 0.09 0.06 0.38 0.02 0.62 0.03 0.15 0.48 0.12 0.03 0.14 0.70 0.09 0.65 0.09 0.23 0.08 0.19 0.04 0.01 0.21 0.01 0.11 0.08 0.52 0.06 0.06 1.62 0.01 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.23 0.01 0.26 0.02 0.02 1.00

-9.47 0.00 -18.18 0.00 0.00 -20.00 0.00 -34.94 -18.75 -14.29 -28.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -22.22 -3.23 -40.00 -18.75 -16.67 -57.81 21.88 -17.65 0.00 0.00 -7.89 0.00 32.26 -33.33 -6.67 -18.75 -8.33 -33.33 -14.29 -34.29 33.33 -9.23 -22.22 0.00 -12.50 -10.53 -50.00 0.00 23.81 0.00 -36.36 0.00 28.85 16.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 -25.00 -22.22 -40.00 -8.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

July 25 - 31, 2012








Book Value

Shares ('000) Aριθµός µετοχών

Value euro Aξία EUR

Cap. ('000) Kεφαλ. EUR

Per Share euro Λογιστική αξία

Price to


2010 Book Value Times EUR ('000) Tιµή προς Κέρδη µετά λογιστ. αξ. φορολ.



0.0379 0.2721 0.0048 0.2741 0.7502 0.0174 0.0674 0.1633 0.0734 0.0320 1.0430 2.1427 0.6125 0.2500

-47.23 -63.25 316.67 -63.52 -68.01 -42.53 33.53 -63.26 -45.50 -37.50 -23.30 -6.66 -2.04 16.00

2010 58 430 56 582 49 385 44 494 200 000 282 483 14 000 56 545 11 000 20 247 2 729 2 729 1 364 13 468

0.17 0.34 0.10 0.30 0.87 0.02 0.17 0.51 0.51 0.09 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.17

1 169 5 658 988 4 449 48 000 2 825 1 260 3 393 440 405 2 183 5 458 818 3 906 80 952

-760 -3 213 -2 533 -10 875 -15 581 -5 227 -6 -12 850 -112 -195 389 -446 -7 -127 -51 543

6M 2011 EUR ('000) Kέρδη 2011

6M 2012 EUR ('000) Kέρδη 2012

6M '11 -59 -1 207 -284

6M '12 -43 -316 -705

-2 488

-1 489

-4 038

-2 553

6M '11

6M '12



81 202 15 296 5 055 391 155 157 138 7 700 25 000 11 385 2 000 21 827 42 450 61 739 189 377 296 665 54 166 70 220 629 785 124 009 60 674 13 000

0.21 0.34 0.03 0.086 0.17 0.12 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.17 0.17 0.06 0.01 $0.20 0.17 0.17 0.04 0.09 0.57 0.17

812 9 744 202 23 469 1 571 385 16 250 228 540 218 5 519 8 643 1 894 5 933 5 417 702 6 298 1 240 36 404 83 330 208 800

0.1769 2.40 -0.61 -0.06 -0.20 -0.01 1.35 0.086 0.2224 0.11 0.45 0.06 -0.38 -0.27 0.29 0.000 -0.04 -0.1180 0.43 0.13

-94.35 0.27 -0.07 -1.05 -0.05 -5.00 0.48 0.23 1.21 0.09 0.29 2.47 -0.03 -0.07 0.35 33.33 -0.26 -0.08 1.40 50.55

1 767 453


-214 1 846 -1 353 232 -31 800 -335 -1 938 221 -180 774 999 -2 378 -7 100 -50 257 93 -173 -50 598 -764 -6 534 -916 -150 375 153 275


2011 EUR ('000) Κέρδη µετά φορολ.

P/E ratio 2011

Dividend Per

Dividend Yield


Share 2011 Cents






Results Cents

2011 -737 -4 301 -1 465 -10 771 -14 687 -6 357 -255 -9 493 -165 -150 331 -136 -36 -303 -48 525

Earnings Per

Cents -1.26 -7.60 -2.97 -24.21 -7.34 -2.25 -1.82 -16.79 -1.50 -0.74 12.13 -4.98 -2.64 -2.25

2012 High Low EUR EUR Aνώτατο Kατώτατο







Last Close EUR Kλείσιµο

Price 31/12/2011 EUR Tιµή 31/12/2011

31/12/2011 Ποσ. Μετ. 31/12/2011

548.25 0.02 0.10 0.02 0.10 0.24 0.01 0.09 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.80 2.00 0.60 0.29

454.51 0.02 0.09 0.03 0.14 0.19 0.01 0.10 0.10 0.04 0.02 0.80 2.00 0.60 0.25

20.62 0.00 11.11 -33.33 -28.57 26.32 0.00 -10.00 -40.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.00

0.01 0.64 0.04 0.06 0.01 0.05 0.65 0.02 0.27 0.01 0.13 0.14 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.60 6.41

0.01 0.65 0.04 0.06 0.01 0.05 0.65 0.02 0.27 0.01 0.13 0.14 0.01 0.02 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.60 6.41

-1.70 0.00 -

% Change



2011 `

-4 033

-4 345



-2 708

-2 452

-3 801


-10 617

-6 238

-27 989 -1 856 -18 954 -9 100 -245 -701 35 -180 87 612 -2 656 -11 700 -32 272 -328 -320 -16 501 -60 -6 248 -4 062 -103 487

110 051

308 703

-5 476 229


-0.03 6.47 -36.72 -4.85 -5.79 -3.18 -2.80 0.31 -9.00 0.40 1.44 -4.30 -6.18 -10.88 -0.61 -0.46 -2.62 -0.05 -10.30 -31.25

source: Eurivex Ltd. NAV: Net Asset Value

PAT:Profit After Tax

Bold: Final results

EPS: Earnings per Share based on existing number of shares. P/E: Price to Earnings ratio. Weighted P/E ratio: Calculated based on market cap weighting of profit reporting companies, Book Value: According to our estimates. N/A Indicates Not Applicable, Price 31/12/2009 is the closing price or in case of New Listings the opening price.



No. of Shares (000) 1 690 1 950 300 000 1 575 100 000 8 057 1 200 35 052 3 400 321 10 906 1 810 8 390

Market Cap EUR (000) 11 830 36 855 300 000 5 513 75 000 21 834 14 280 42 062 3 400 1 611 43 624 2 552 15 102 573 664

Latest price EUR 7.00 18.90 1.00 3.50 0.75 2.71 11.90 1.20 1.00 5.02 4.00 1.41 1.80

Nominal Value EUR 0.30 0.01 0.10 0.30 0.50 1.00 0.01 0.25 0.10 1.00 0.32 1.00 0.01

Listing Date 29/3/10 29/3/10 29/3/10 29/3/10 06/8/10 21/7/11 10/9/10 10/10/11 2/11/11 10/04/12 28/06/12 29/06/12 17/07/12


Ignores weighted number of shares in circulation Forecasted profits are liable to change without notice and responsibility

No. of warrants (000) 893 24831 17606 2218

Mkt Cap (00) 1 25 176 22 224

CSE Code No. of Bonds

Exercise Period

Exercise Price euro cents

Expiry Date

41212 20-30 Jun 2001-2015 1-15 May & 1-15 Nov 07-13 1-15 Nov 2010 and 2012

8.67 173 20c or EUR 35c 29

30-10-2012 30-06-2005 15-11-2013 15/11/2012

Latest Close 0.001 0.001 0.010 0.010


1 040

Market Cap EUR 104 000 000

Latest price EUR 100 000

Listing Date 8 Nov 2011

Latest NAV N/A

Kappasquare Ltd Nugreat Ltd Zetadynamic Ltd


17 000 23 000 9 000

1 700 000 2 300 000 900 000

100 100 100

30 Mar 2012 30 Mar 2012 30 Mar 2012


Akcern Ltd


2 001

200 100


9 May 2012


DISCLAIMER: The information, comments, analyses and financial data published in this newspaper were obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed and may change without notice. Any of the information or opinions published herein should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell investments. No liability is accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this publication.

July 25 - 31, 2012


No winners in race for growth medals l

Euro zone manufacturing may be stabilizing at low level

“Faster, Higher, Stronger” is the motto of the Olympics opening in London on Friday. Tao Wang, an economist for UBS in Hong Kong, said a drop in external demand due to the “Slower, Lower, Weaker” would be a better description of the economic performance of many of euro’s malaise was one of the two main risks (the other is a further fall in the property market) the countries competing in the games. to her forecast of an investment-led recovery in Chinese growth over the rest of 2012. None of the big names will look worthy of a place on the podium if forecasts for a raft of data To that end, investors will be scrutinizing the export orders component of HSBC’s flash surdue this week from the euro zone, the United States and Britain prove accurate. vey of Chinese purchasing managers for July. Even China, the longstanding growth champion, is huffing and puffing. And for all the growth hormones injected in the form of cheap central bank money, the glob- GROWTH VERSUS AUSTERITY al economy is likely to be running on the spot for some time yet given fears that the U.S. could Poor figures from Europe would add fuel to the debate over whether governments should give fall off a fiscal cliff, the softer trend in China and, above all, the debilitating euro zone crisis. themselves more time to reduce their swollen debts and deficits. July’s advance surveys of purchasing managers in the 17The euro zone, in fact, has already done just that for Spain, nation single currency area are expected to produce readings and the IMF last week advised Britain to scale back its fiscal GLOBAL ECONOMY WEEKAHEAD well beneath the boom-bust mark of 50, signaling recession. At tightening plans if growth does not pick up by early next year. best, the reports will show both manufacturing and services are Richard Koo, chief economist of the Nomura Research at least stabilizing. Institute in Tokyo, said Britain, along with Germany, Japan and Two other important early glimpses of how the third quarter the U.S., was benefiting from funds fleeing troubled euro zone is shaping up, Germany’s IFO business climate and Belgium’s counties. leading indicator, are scheduled for Wednesday and are forecast With their bond yields at extremely low levels as a result, to show a modest deterioration. these countries should borrow and spend to support aggregate “Risks to the economic outlook and to the euro zone soverdemand, Koo argued. The first three of the quartet, however, eign situation are stacked on the downside, and we see a signifapparently have no interest in administering fiscal stimulus. icant probability of a rate cut by the ECB within the next three “The U.S. stands alone in this regard, although all we have for months,” said Riccardo Barbieri, chief European economist at now is the president’s proposal to extend existing tax cuts. That Mizuho in London. will not be nearly enough to support the global economy,” he said. But in the wake of the West’s severe debt crunch, perhaps HEAVY GOING there is simply no way to provide sufficient support and The headwinds blowing in from Europe will help peg secondgrowth will remain sluggish for years while excessive borrowquarter U.S. gross domestic product growth back to a ho-hum ing is paid back? 1.4% from 1.9% in the first three months of the year, economists After all, that would be the conclusion to be drawn from the believe. The data will be released on Friday. landmark 2009 study of financial crises by U.S. economists Ken Britain, which has the euro zone as its main trading partner, is doing much worse. Figures on Wednesday are projected to show that the economy shrank by Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart. Daniel Gros, director of the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels, goes further. 0.2% in the April-June period. That would be the third straight quarter of contraction. Given the massive shock emanating from stresses in the sovereign debt markets, the relative The IMF, in cutting its forecasts last week for the global and euro zone economies, lambastperformance of the euro zone will probably deteriorate from now on, Gros said. ed policymakers for dithering over the crisis gripping the single currency. Governments are nevertheless right to pursue austerity to pay down debt, even at the tempoIn unusually direct language, the fund demanded an “unequivocal commitment” to the euro from member governments and urged the European Central Bank to conduct “sizeable” pur- rary cost of lost jobs and output, because without retrenchment public debt ratios would become unsustainable, Gros said in an article for chases of sovereign bonds to tackle the region’s troubles. “The fact that austerity has costs does not imply it should never be undertaken,” he wrote. Beijing, its economy growing at the slowest rate in three years, has also been pressing for decisive action. Europe is China’s biggest export market.

Financial Mirror - 25-31July 2012  

Financial Mirror digital edition - 25 - 31 July 2012