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Remote Solar:  Rethinking  our  approach  

Lyndon Frearson       General  Manager  CAT  Projects  


World Class  Solar  


Diesel Price   Diesel  Terminal  Gate  Price  -­‐ c/L  Darwin  Ex  GST   180

160 140 120 100

80 60 40 20 0

1

4

7 10 1

2004

4

7 10 1

2005

4

7 10 1

2006

4

7 10 1

2007

4

7 10 1

2008

4

7 10 1

2009

4

7 10 1

2010

4

7 10 1

2011

4

2012


Economics are  viable   Installed  Cost  vs  Diesel  Price  Escalation  impact  on  IRR

20.0% 18.0%

16.0% 18.0%-­‐20.0%

IRR

14.0% 12.0%

16.0%-­‐18.0% 14.0%-­‐16.0%

10.0%

12.0%-­‐14.0%

8.0%

10.0%-­‐12.0% 8.0%-­‐10.0%

6.0%

6.0%-­‐8.0%

4.0% 2.0%

Installed $/W

$8.50

$8.00

$7.50

$7.00

$6.50

$6.00

$5.50

$5.00

$4.50

$4.00

0.0%

9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% Diesel Escalation 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%

4.0%-­‐6.0%

2.0%-­‐4.0% 0.0%-­‐2.0%


Structural Barriers   Finance:  

Supply Chains:   •   Intellectual   •   Materials   •   O&M  

•  Capital  Constraints   •   Risk   •   Ownership  

Governance:

•  LegislaJve/Regulatory  regime   •   Management  of  Revenue  Stream   •   Management  of  liability  


Changes to  design   approach   Demand  profile (night/day,   usage  types)

Optimised power system  – MAX  use  of   RE Supply  characteristics (Genset capability,  PV   performance)

Environmental influences   (cloudy/sunny,   hot/cold)


Hybrid Arrangements   increase  viability  

Faimen et  al  2009  


StaJsJcal Approach  to     Design   •  Nom.  1MW   Array  


% of  events  –  June   66  (1  standard  devia2on)  

kW varia2on  range   +/-­‐  45kW  

% of  1MW  output   <5%  

97 (2  standard  devia2ons)  

+/-­‐ 90kW  

<10%

99.5 (3  standard   devia2ons)  

+/-­‐ 135kW  

<15%

% of  events  –  February   66  (1  standard  devia2on)   97  (2  standard  devia2ons)   99.5  (3  standard   devia2ons  

kW varia2on  range   +/-­‐  135kW   +/-­‐  270kW   +/-­‐  405kW  

% of  1MW  output   <15%   <30%   ~40%  


Choking Output   Unchoked   Project  NPV  (beore  financing  +  tax)   Project  IRR  (before  financing  +  tax)  

$1,623,972 12.53%  

Choked @  70%  for  6  months   Project  NPV  (before  financing  +  tax)   Project  IRR  (before  financing  +  tax)  

$1,222,257 11.69%  


Conclusion •  ExisJng  approach  of  lowest  cost  does  not   resolve  finance  barriers   •  Lowering  governance  risk  is  key  to  success   •  Storage  makes  finance  more  challenging   •  Intelligent  data  based  design  can  assist  in   removing  barriers    

1650-130524-catp-asc-presentation  
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