CHAPTER 6
CHAPTER 7
China’s Linchpin Role in the Global Order
C
hina’s spectacular rise is historically unprecedented. No power in modern history has risen so fast to become, in a matter of three to four decades, a regional as well as global power. It is likely, already, the world’s largest economy. Many predictions of gloom or collapse for China have proven wrong. At the same time, China has entered a new chapter. It now has to prove it can sustain its rapid rise, moving up the value chain to become a world-class innovative society, not just a middle-income behemoth. This has implications for all. An angry China might be a dangerous international player. At the same time, even if China manages to avoid the middle-income trap—which historically has beset the majority of rapidly growing economies—its rightful place in the regional and global order will still pose a challenge. Since the 2008 financial crisis, China’s neighbors have grown more fearful of Beijing, even as economic webs connecting them to China have grown stronger. Historical examples are not favorable to positive outcomes. It will be hard to find a middle ground that suits China’s high ambitions for sway over its region, but does not ruffle US feathers or scare China’s neighbors, including the increasingly vulnerable Japan.
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