Chapter 02: Future Scenarios
90%
Secondary school graduation increased from 62% to 90%. to East Asia. Unfortunately, there is no quick fix. Educa-
efited from bold experimentation during the late 2010s,
tional investments generate benefits over the long run.
attracting investment and talented people from around the world. Despite this, the region is not known for its
At the same time, educational quality is still a problem.
innovative outlook. Mini Silicon Valleys like Guadalajara,
Innovation is the final piece of the productivity puzzle.
Mexico, have yet to translate into widespread knowl-
Comparatively low educational levels, high (but decreas-
edge-based entrepreneurialism.
ing) informality, and poor infrastructure have all contributed to Latin America’s inability to become an epicenter
There are a few bright spots. Governments have been
of the global knowledge economy. Universities have been
able to manage without undergoing wrenching transfor-
unable to turn their scientific research into commercially
mation. In budgetary terms, reasonable GDP growth plus
viable technology on a major scale, as occurs at the public
the effects of some reforms (especially the much smaller
and private research universities in the United States.
informal economy) have provided states with greater re-
Unfortunately, Latin America’s universities have not been
sources. Government revenues increased from about $1.8
successful at building better links with the private sector,
trillion in 2016 to $3.0 trillion in 2030. This increase has
and the vast majority of university faculty do not work
not been a windfall, however, as the increase has been
within academic systems that encourage turning their lab
consumed by growing demand for infrastructure and
research into startup enterprises.
public services, including education and health spending, plus dealing with the consequences of aging.
Still, despite these structural challenges, some innovation hubs around the hemisphere have emerged, and these
More resources are now being devoted to climate adap-
have produced a few world-renowned products. Buenos
tation, at least compared with 2016. The planet has been
Aires–based Sol Ahora, established in the late teens,
changing fast over the past fourteen years. Governments
launched an initial public offering in 2022 for its solar-op-
have to deal with more frequent drought and flooding,
erated cell phone technology. The Argentine capital ben-
more heat waves, more storms, and rising sea levels (the 61