Page 1

Trends in Global Chicken Market, Opportunities and Challenges 2016 World Seminar of Poultry Science Buenos Aires, Argentina May 12, 2016 Jim Sumner, President USA Poultry & Egg Export Council International Poultry Council


Trends in Global Chicken Market, Opportunities and Challenges Topics in today’s presentation: 

USAPEEC, IPC, and their Missions

An overview of world chicken industry

The U.S. Market situation

Challenges and opportunities facing world chicken trade


USAPEEC and its Mission The USA Poultry & Egg Export Council (USAPEEC) is a non-profit trade association whose members account for more than 95% of all U.S. poultry and egg exports. USAPEEC exists for the purpose of increasing U.S. poultry & egg exports by protecting, opening and developing markets throughout the world and by serving as the industry’s voice on trade policy issues.


USAPEEC Locations Based in Stone Mountain, Georgia, USAPEEC has 14 international offices in major export markets:

Mexico City Monterrey Hong Kong Singapore Moscow Beijing Central Asia

Shanghai Tokyo Seoul Middle East South Africa Europe Latin America/Caribbean


USAPEEC Membership Processors

48

Trading Companies

89

Commodity Groups (corn, soybean groups) Associate Members (shipping, cold storage, port authorities, etc.) Total

15 71

223


The International Poultry Council ď Ž

ď Ž

IPC was formed in October 2005 to bring together poultry industry leaders from around the world to address issues of trade, science, and to improve relations among national industries. Recognized by OIE, FAO, and CODEX.


IPC Mission To strengthen communication between countries, to develop and implement policy for international organizations affecting the world’s poultry industry, and to promote a common understanding of and confidence in poultry products throughout the world.


2016 IPC meeting in Abu Dhabi, UAE   

15 member countries 80 registered attendees 24 Associate Members


IPC 2016 Annual Meeting in Abu Dhabi


IPC 2016 Annual Meeting in Abu Dhabi


IPC Current Membership Currently 25 members, accounting for more than 90 percent of world poultry production.

Argentina* Australia Brazil* Canada* Caribbean Chile* China* Colombia

Egypt* EU* Germany Honduras Italy Japan Mexico* Netherlands New Zealand

* Founding charter members

Nicaragua Pakistan Russia South Africa Thailand* Turkey * United Kingdom United States*


IPC Associate Members Erlich Foods International Frost PLLC Al Islami Foods Hendrix Genetics Alltech Heristo AG Australian Duck Meat Hungarian Poultry Product Association Board International Poultry Forum Aviagen, Inc. Jamesway Incubator Co. BRF S.A. Jansen Poultry Equipment Co. Cargill Japan Imported Poultry Caribbean Poultry Association Association JBS S.A. Chicken Farmers of Canada K&N's Foods, Pvt. Ltd. China Animal Agr. Association Lohmann Animal Health Marel Stork Poultry Processing Cobb-Vantress Elanco Animal Health McDonald's CSB-Systems Elinar Broiler Merck Animal Health CID Lines EPEGA Morris & Associates Danish Poultry Meat Association Munters Doux Groupe Nepluvi

AJC International

Novus International OC&C Strategy Consultants OSI Group Petersime NV

Phibro Animal Health Pluma AgroavĂ­cola Rabobank International Sanderson Farms Sanovo Holding Sealed Air SKOV A/S Tyson Foods Vibra Group VNU Exhibitions World Poultry Foundation YUM! Brands, Inc. Zoetis


Executive Committee Members Office Holders  Jim Sumner – USA (President)  Ricardo Santin – Brazil (Vice-President)  Robin Horel – Canada (Treasurer) Members at-Large  Dr. Vivien Kite – Australia  Cees Vermeeren – EU  Jinyou Wang – China Associate Members (One-year term)  Jerry Moye – Cobb-Vantress  Delair Bolis – Merck Animal Health  Gary Johnson – McDonald’s Corporation


Working Groups 

IPC creates working groups aimed at reviewing specific topics of concern to the Global Poultry sector. • • • •

Animal Health and Welfare Processing and Food Safety Marketing and Consumption Environment and Sustainability


Memorandums of Understanding 

IPC has signed Memorandums of Understanding for

representation of the global poultry meat industry with the following international organizations: • OIE – World Organization for Animal Health • Codex Alimentarius • FAO – United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization


Participation in International Organizations 

OIE discussions on the changes in the Terrestrial Code, specially the Animal Welfare chapter and welfare at slaughtering • IPC participates in the General Assembly in May 2016;

Avian Influenza • IPC has adoped a statement on avian influenza and its impact on the poultry industry and trade and urged the OIE to encourage countries to accept and implement the principles of regionalization and compartmentalization to avoid trade disruptions during avian influenza outbreaks. This statement was sent to the OIE and Chief Veterinary Officers in several countries.


Participation in International Organizations (cont.) • Use of antimicrobials • IPC, within its Animal Health and Welfare working group is drafting a statement on antimicrobial use by the poultry industry. We strongly believe that we must take the lead and start to urge governments throughout the world to make Science-based decisions. This will require a concerted effort to be developed at the OIE, FAO, Codex and WHO levels.

• Emerging diseases nomenclature • IPC has promoted before the World Health Organization and the World Animal Health Organization for the reviewi of nomenclature of existing and emerging animal diseases. The objective being to use a neutral nomenclature which could reduce the potential for major market disruptions from consumer loss of confidence at times of outbreaks.


Next IPC Meetings 

Lisbon, Portugal – 12-14 October 2016, before SIAL Paris

Cartagena, Colombia – 2017, March-April Conference

Canada – 2017 September-October Conference • Registration fee is normally only US$ 600.00 per person.


IPC Membership dues for 2016 

Country Members • US$3,300/year

Associate Members • US$1,800/year


Contact ď Ž

For further information, please contact IPC’s Secretary General by email or telephone. Marilia Rangel Campos marilia@internationalpoultrycouncil.org +55 (11) 99986-7527


An overview of the global chicken industry


World Meat Production: Chicken versus Beef and Pork 120 80 60 40 20 0 19 60 19 65 19 70 19 75 19 80 19 85 19 90 19 95 20 00 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 20 16 15 (p )

million tons

100

Pork

Broiler

Beef

Chicken production tends to grow faster than red meat production because chicken is the greenest and most efficient converter of feed, and this trend is expected to continue throughout the next decade.

Source: USDA/FAS


8 7 6 5

14 10 8

4 3 2 1 0

6 4 2 0

World population (left axis) Per capita consumption (right axis)

kilogram

12

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201 2016 5 (p)

Billion

World Demand for Chicken Meat Global demand for chicken meat increased at an average rate of 3.7% in the past two decades ending in 2015. World demand is projected to grow 30% in the next decade as both population and per capita consumption increase. Source: USDA and FAO


Top Broiler Producers in the World 2011

40%

2012

35%

2013 2014

30% 25%

25.5% 25.8%

2015 20.6% 20.4%

20%

15.8%

15%

16.3% 14.9% 14.8% 11.5% 12.1%

10% 3.6% 4.4%

5%

3.2%

4.0% 3.5% 3.6%

0% USA

Brazil

China

EU-28

India

Russia

Mexico

ROW

Source: USDA/FAS


Brazil and USA: Top Chicken Exporters (In 1,000 metric tons) 4,500

4,046

2011

4,000

2012

3,500

3,095

2013

3,000

2014

2,500

2015

2,000

1,748

1,198

1,500 1,000

622

401

500

216

133

RO W

Ca na da

Arg en tin a

Ch ina

d Th aila n

EU -2 8

US A

Bra z il

0

Source: Global Trade Atlas


Nearly 2/3 of World Broiler Exports are from Brazil and USA Argentina 2.6%

Canada 1.2% ROW 14.2%

China 3.6% Thailand 4.6%

EU-28 10.0%

Brazil 33.1% USA 30.6%

Average Share in the last five years from 2011 to 2015

Source: Global Trade Atlas


Top Chicken Importers in the World (In 1,000 metric tons) 2011

1,400

2012

1,200 936

1,000

2013 847 790

2014

800

2015

600

464

457

394

400

249

209

181

200

172

Ph ilip pin es

n Ta iwa

Ca na da

Ru ss i a

Afr ic a Ch ina (m ain lan d)

So uth

EU -2 8

o Me x ic

Ho ng Ko ng

Ja pa n

0

Source: Global Trade Atlas


U.S. and China Top Broiler Consumers (2015) 16.0 14.0

million tons

12.0 10.0

15.0 12.9 10.2 9.3

8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0

1.9

USA China EU-28 Brazil India Mexico Russia Japan Argentina Turkey South Africa Indonesia

Source: USDA/FAS


Per Capita Broiler Consumption Varies Significantly across the Countries (2015) 50

46.6

44.5 42.9

Kilograms

40 30 20 10

9.4 6.3 3.0

USA Brazil Argentina Mexico South Africa Russia Turkey EU-28 Japan China Indonesia India

0

Source: USDA and FAO


The U.S. Market situation


In 2015, the U.S. Poultry Industry suffered its Most Devastating Loss in history, as a result of HPAI

$4.2 Billion


U.S. Poultry & Egg Export Value (In million U.S. dollars) $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000

T able egg & egg products Other poultry T urkey Value Broiler Value

$3,000 $2,000 $1,000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$0

Total export value in 2015 were $4.33 billion, down 25.8% from 2014

Source: USDA/FAS


U.S. Broiler, Turkey, and Eggs Loss in 2015 due to HPAI Ban Broiler

Turkey

Eggs

Total

Export Loss

1,156

116

20

1,292

U.S. domestic drop in value

2,250

358

289

2,897

Total

3,406

474

309

4,189


U.S. Broiler Exports-A Changing Landscape ROW 36.1%

Russia 20.5%

ROW 48.5%

Mexico 21.9%

Cuba 4.1% =

Hong Kong 9.8%

Iraq 4.5% Hong Kong 4.6%

2009

Mexico 10.4%

China 19.9%

Cuba 3.5%

Angola 4.6%

Taiwan 5.8%

Canada 6.0%

2015

In 2009, China and Russia comprised over 40% of U.S. total broiler exports; in 2015, shipments to Russia were zero and exports to China accounted for less than 0.3%.


Percentage of Production Exported

1990

2000

2010

2013

2014

2015

Broiler

6.0%

17.3% 19.8% 20.8% 20.4%

16.5%

Turkey

1.6%

8.4%

10.5% 13.2% 14.0%

9.5%

Eggs

1.5%

2.5%

3.1%

3.5%

5.0%

4.9%


CLQ - Perfect Storm 2015   

Avian Influenza Trade Restrictions Rising Value of the Dollar Weak World Economy Oil Exporters = Chicken importers


U.S. Broiler Exports in 2015 Down Sharply due to the AI bans 5.0 4.5

$5.0

Quantity (left axis, million tons) Value (right axis, billion US$)

$4.5 $4.0

3.5

$3.5

3.0

$3.0

2.5

$2.5

2.0

$2.0

1.5

$1.5

1.0

$1.0

20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15

4.0

Exports in 2015 down16.1% in volume and 28.5% in value from 2014 due largely to the HPAI bans.

Source: USDA/FAS


Year

Subtype

Country

2010

H5N1

2010

H7N7

2011

H5N1

2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014

H5N1 H5N2 H7N3 H7N7 H5N1 H5N2 H7N2 H7N3 H7N7 H5N1 H5N2 H5N6 H5N8 H7N2 H7N3

2015

H5N1

2015 2015 2016

H5N2 H7N3 H5N1

Bangladesh, Bhutan, Bulgaria, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Israel, Japan, Korea N., Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Rumania, Russia, Vietnam Spain Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Iran Israel, Japan, S. Korea S., Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Palestine, South Africa, Vietnam Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, China, Taiwan Hong Kong, India, Iran, Israel, Myanmar, Nepal, Vietnam Taiwan, South Africa Mexico Australia Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Korea N., Nepal, Vietnam China, Taiwan, South Africa Australia Mexico Australia, Italy Cambodia, China, India N. Korea, Libya, Nepal, Russia, Vietnam Canada, China, USA China, Laos, Vietnam China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, Netherlands, Rusia, U.K., USA Australia Mexico Bhutan, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Canada, China, Cote d’Ivoire, France, Ghana, India, Iran, Israel, Kazakhstan, Libya, Myanmar, Niger, Nigeria, Palestine, Israel, Rumania, Rusia, Turkey, USA, Vietnam Canada, China, Taiwan, France, USA Mexico France, Nigeria

2016 2016 2016

H5N2 H5N9 H7N8

France France USA


Avian Influenza in America


41


42


Long Distance Inter or Trans-continental Migrations

Anas acuta (Northern Pintail)

Summer Anas platyrhynchos (Mallard Ducks)

Winter

Euro Surveill. 2015;20(12):pii=21069. http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=21069


OR

44


OR WA ID CA MN MO AR KS SD MT ND WI IA IN IL NE

45


Layers

Turkeys

Broilers


AI Cases/Week 40

36 34 31 27

35 30 25

19

20 15

12

10 5

0

0 1 1 1 1 1

3

1 2 0 2 0 1

3

5

1 0

20 16 12 3

0 1

47


Total Losses 

232 affected premises

211 commercial farms

21 backyard or small flock operations

50 million birds depopulated

670 USDA personnel

Numerous contractors and subcontractors

21 states (15 with commercial poultry)

USDA expenses = $850,000,000 (besides industry losses)

Export losses = Billions

Combined export value losses = 25.8% vs. 2014

48


15 15 -Jan 15 Feb 15-Mar 15 -Apr 15 May 15Jun 15 -Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 -Oct 15 Nov 16 Dec 16 -Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 -Apr 16 May 16Jun 16 -Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 -Oct 16 Nov -D ec

Leg Quarter Price – 2015-2016 Cents per Pound – USDA Northeast Price

44

40

36

32

28

24

20


But despite these efforts, about 18 countries banned entire US and 43 countries banned at state or regional level.


HPAI Bans Lifted 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Albania Argentina Azerbaijan Benin Canada Chile Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Curacao Dominica Dominican Republic Egypt El Salvador Iraq Jamaica

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32

Japan Jordan Kiribati Kuwait New Caledonia New Zealand Nicaragua Peru Qatar Russia Samoa Singapore South Korea St. Lucia Thailand Turkey


The global poultry industry is facing a new HPAI World Order 

No country is immune from exposure from migratory birds Unless foreign governments change their approach towards HPAI, a global food shortage could result The growing number of global HPAI incidents, combined with efforts of U.S. government to reopen and move toward regionalization is helping


Challenges and opportunities facing world poultry trade


Trending --Animal Welfare / Consumer Issues -- Cage free eggs -- Slow growing broilers -- ABF -- antibiotic free -- Stunning


China Concerns

-

-

Depressed economy Food Safety / animal disease concerns Under Consumption Soon facing shortage of breeding supplies


Source: USDA/FAS


Other Developing Issues

  

TPP should provide some additional access to Canada, lower duties in VN and Japan. But may never be approved by U.S. Congress TTIP even less likely to happen China developing its own FTA’s The Trump Factor and U.S. anti-trade sentiment among voters


South Africa 

South Africa launched AD investigation against U.S. chicken bone-in cuts in 1999. An agreement reached in June 2015 allows 65,000 mt. of U.S. broilers to enter without paying the antidumping duties. 37% duty remains; but several EU countries duty free. New restrictions on brining will reduce domestic supply.


Cuba – A Forthcoming Opportunity

Big difference  

Normalization with Cuba looks "irreversible“ Decision to allow U.S. banks insteady of only third-country banks End of the dollar-use prohibition will have the positive effect on the Cuban economy.


Challenges in the Russian Market ďƒ˜ Russia, once our top broiler export market (since 1994) closed in 2014 as a aresult of sanctions over Ukraine. ďƒ˜ Russia is not largely self-sufficient and is even now exporting products.


Broiler Production and Consumption in Russia Production (1,000 MT) Consumption (1,000 MT)

19 9 19 2 1993 9 19 4 9 19 5 1996 9 19 7 1998 9 20 9 0 20 0 2001 0 20 2 0 20 3 2004 0 20 5 2006 0 20 7 0 20 8 2009 1 20 0 1 20 1 2012 1 20 3 2014 20 15 16 (p)

4,000 3,600 3,200 2,800 2,400 2,000 1,600 1,200 800 400 0

Source: USDA/FAS


India 

The potential market is huge, as India has huge population (1.3 billion), with rapid growth of consumer income and very low per capita chicken consumption (about 3 kg). While India has frequently suffered from outbreaks of HPAI, it placed a ban on U.S. poultry products in 2007 after a finding of LPAI in the U.S. In October 2014, the WTO ruled against India in its years-long ban on U.S. poultry and egg imports. USAPEEC and ABPA jointly hired a consultant to address opening markets. No opportunities in reasonable future


UBABEF – USAPEEC Joint Market Mission to India (2012)


UBABEF – USAPEEC Joint Market Mission to India (2012)


World Chicken Exports

10 9 8 7 6 5 4

Despite many trade obstacles, world chicken exports in the next decade are predicted to grow Exports increased at an average growth rate of 5.3% at an average in 2000-2015 annual rate of about 3 percent.

200 0 200 1 200 2 200 3 200 4 200 5 200 5 200 6 200 7 200 8 200 9 201 0 201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5

million tons

13 12 11

Source: the Global Trade Atlas


Developing Countries Develop

Open Markets

Supermarkets


Xi seminario trends chicken market  
Read more
Read more
Similar to
Popular now
Just for you