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201 2 what’s next for

Partners for Now AND Next


introduction


Never before has the media landscape been more exciting. Advances in technology are not only changing the way we all behave, but opening up incredible new opportunities for the smartest of brands to win the hearts and minds of consumers. Of course, this all comes against the backdrop of a financial downturn, placing immense pressure on businesses to sustain growth and deliver a return on marketing investment. At Arena, we organise ourselves around the notion of being Partners for Now AND Next, to ensure our clients take full advantage of this dynamic - maximising performance to deliver business goals while always looking ahead to benefit from the rapid pace of change. And so with this in mind, we wanted to start the year with a look at some of the key trends, challenges and opportunities we think are most important to what you need to be thinking about next, to protect and grow your brands and business. We have invited some of the media industry’s key influencers to provide their perspective, in addition to some of our own people at Arena. A special thanks to Tess Alps, Dave King, Jonathan Allan, Andy Hart, Steve Stretton, Bob Wootton, Mike Mathieson, Tom Armstrong, Janet Hull, Rory Sutherland, Frank Bryant and Dominic Allon for taking the time out to share their highly valued views. 2012 promises to be one of the most eventful years in all of our working careers - a US election, the London Olympics, a Diamond Jubilee and Euro 2012 . Not to mention the return of Man Men Season 5 on Sky Atlantic in March!


contents


06

Engagement Tess Alps, Thinkbox

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One big question Steve Stretton, AIS

08

Audience targeting Dave King, Telegraph Media Group

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Social media Malcolm Devoy, Arena Media

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Dual screen Henry Daglish, Arena Media

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Where is what's next Mike Mathieson, Cake

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Data insight and analytics Martin Greenbank, Arena Media

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Video on Demand Pedro Avery, Arena Media

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Press Daniel Booth, Arena Media

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Screens and beyond Rohan Tambyrajah. Arena Media

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Generation on demand Andy Hart, Microsoft

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Technology Raul Marengo, Arena Media

18

Digital David Graham, Havas Digital

44

Social TV Tom Armstrong, BE Viacom

20

Advertisers Bob Wootton, ISBA

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Agencies Janet Hull, IPA

22

Gamification Justin Gibbons, Arena Media

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e-Economy Dominic Allon, Google

24

iTelly Jonathan Allan, Channel 4

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Mobile Jay Chauhan, Arena Media

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Rise of the connected screen Frank Bryant, Posterscope

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Predictions Rory Sutherland, Ogilvy Group

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Search Ed Cox, Arena Media

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2012 timeline


engagement Too loose and too late?


Tess Alps, Thinkbox

The prize for the most over-used word in marketing communications would be hotly contested – ‘targeting’ and ‘accountability’ would be high on the list, but I reckon my topic for today, ‘engagement’, would be up there with them.

The frustration for advertisers is that the early stages of ‘engagement’ are invisible because they are going on inside people’s heads; when people start tweeting, ‘liking’ or ideally buying, then the advertisers can be sure that engagement has taken place.

Like motherhood and apple pie, engagement is clearly a ‘good thing’. But what on earth do we all mean by it? The American Research Foundation, with its partner research bodies, has attempted a definition: "Turning on a prospect to a brand idea enhanced by the surrounding context."

But does this mean that interactive media are intrinsically more engaging because they allow a response? Perhaps predictably, I would argue the opposite. The visible activity, on or off-line, is the outcome of previous engagement. The effect not the cause. This is important because many advertisers are interested in encouraging participation and dialogue with their brand. They invest serious time and resource into building communities, loyalty schemes and rewards.

“Turning on a prospect” (or a person/customer/consumer) carries both emotional, nay sexual, overtones and, at the same time, a more mechanical action-orientated switching meaning. And this is where we start to find that ‘engagement’ carries far too many possible interpretations to make it fit for purpose in our marketing world. As we sat and watched the delightful John Lewis Christmas TV ad last autumn, many of us found that we were rather moved, even to tears for some. We recalled our own childhoods and our own children and were amused that this little boy didn’t wake up until 8am. We talked about it to our partners and pointed it out the next time it came on the TV. We were intrigued to know the end of the story and we wanted to know what was in the box. Many of us went online, some of us to tweet about the ad, to share it on our Facebook page and others to shop online. Others just went straight to a John Lewis store to do their shopping. All of these behaviours could be defined as ‘engagement’ at some level, but just think how many different processes were going on before the final purchase: noticing, liking, emoting, remembering, guessing, chatting, sharing, smiling, responding, clicking, searching, comparing, choosing, deciding. Is one word really adequate to encompass that journey?

But if they only care about ‘engagement’ once consumers have already responded online or in-store, they will have missed the opportunity to ‘turn on’ many more people to their brand. What’s the point of an elaborate website, with competitions, prizes, extra content and the rest, if people never get there? I see too many campaigns that fail to move, excite or intrigue consumers, either because the creative work is lack-lustre or simply because they don’t expose it to enough people. Too many campaigns expect participation without motivating people to do so. And measuring the ROI of social media by saying that people who ‘like’ the brand are more likely to buy is perfectly dotty. Of course they are more likely to buy - they are fans! The real question is what made them become a fan in the first place. Whatever we all mean by engagement, it should not be the object of the journey; it should be how the journey starts. But maybe we would be better to abandon the word and articulate separately the many different and equally vital steps on the path to purchase.

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audience targeting The generation game


The economic climate is the single biggest challenge for marketing in the next 12 months, and beyond. In the noughties, all but the bottom 3% of the population grew wealthier, so you could plan and buy marketing campaigns aimed at audiences who could afford to react positively to your message, without thinking too deeply about it. That has now changed as the economy has contracted and easy credit has gone away - we all have to be better at our jobs. We still get briefed on car launches for 18-34 year old men, yet we don't know any 18-34 year old men who could afford to buy one even if they were bowled over by the advertising. Well over 80% of the nation’s wealth belongs to people older than the 25-44 market beloved of the advertising industry. The average age of an iPad owner is 47. The biggest buyers of pre-recorded music are 55. The average age of electronic equipment buyers is 42 - three examples showing that age group targeting is a misnomer with no place in today’s troubled economy. We argue strongly that the largest generation, the Baby Boomers (born 1945-65) represents a big opportunity for advertisers in 2012. We have created a character called Brian who is the average boomer. Despite being average, his story is an enviable one, fuelled by the property market, final salary pensions, social mobility and savings. Effectively he collected all the spoils before younger generations got into the game. At 58, Brian has the health, the wealth and determination to spend the kid’s inheritance. Like many of his peers he holds the keys to the bank of mum and dad, being both the cash dispenser and financial advisor. His adult children can ask for the money but it’s his advice they have to follow.

Dave King, Telegraph Media Group

Sainsbury's recently estimated that 30-something men received an average of £5,542 from their parents in the last 12 months and a quarter of Telegraph readers with adult children have given their offspring over £50k. With 80% of first time buyers borrowing the deposit money from their parents, compared to 37% in 2007, pre-downturn – the bank of mum and dad will be a well used phrase in 2012. The Ehrenburg Institute’s empirical evidence outlined in their recent book, ‘How Brands Grow’ is compelling reading. It uses data to frame the idea that "sophisticated mass marketing" is still the best way to increase market share. Advertisers should be honest with themselves about who is buying their goods and reach all of them to grow and defend their share. In the era where all the chatter is about data and targeting, broadcast media like print and TV still has a huge role to play in generating awareness and sales. Any serious marketer or planner should read it as it throws out many myths, replacing them with sound reason. On a personal note, I will be very interested to see the market reaction to the NRS/UKOM fusion of print and online readership figures. Newspaper publishers will be looking at audience gains with a new measurement figure across platforms and we're excited that our overall audience strength will finally be reflected in a single audience number. 9


dual screen Another lost opportunity for broadcasters? 10


Henry Daglish, Arena Media

We’ve all been talking about the world of convergence for years (well, we have here anyway) and whilst the likes of Samsung and Google TV are at the forefront of the one screen world, the actual opportunities for 2012 may be around the second screen. In 2011, we saw the progression of some basic dual screen innovation from the likes of Channel 4 (Million Pound Drop) and ITV (Red or Black). However, the most interesting developments have come from stand-alone entities such as Zeebox and Into Now from Yahoo. Both of these services are built to scrape social feeds into a single application that makes your TV experience truly social, irrespective of whether you are watching Jeremy Kyle or the final of X-factor. So what can we expect for 2012? It feels to me as though the real question is to what extent there are going to be opportunities for actual dual screen interaction around conventional TV. In a world of ever increasing catch up TV and VOD, the opportunities are, as you’d expect, going to be limited to the traditional live broadcast events primarily. Should this be the case, you’d expect the broadcasters to lead the march in this area, regain the first mover advantage from the likes of Zeebox and concentrate on delivering a truly social

experience around key events to potentially influence on air content and allow sponsors to get fully engaged on all platforms. 2012 is the opportunity for broadcasters such as ITV to create compelling brands around the likes of Britain’s Got Talent that reach every platform including social. Or alternatively they should start producing new non-event programmes that are built solely to deliver and facilitate a live TV & social experience (i.e. programmes that lose relevance as catch up TV). I’m not yet convinced that this will necessarily be the case, instead we should expect the creation of more stand alone services that will concentrate on the vertical opportunities within broadcast live events – live football and celebrity programming are obvious places start. Fanatics has just been launched to provide exactly this around live football and we should expect more. Sky’s move to acquire Zeebox is highly encouraging and a clear bid for them to break from the pack. All that said, the real question is whether dual screen, in terms of purpose built applications, is actually a long term trend or just a fad; let’s face it most of this stuff is driven by Twitter and Facebook in the first place… 11


data insight and analytics

Decision-making times

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Martin Greenbank, Arena Media

Business cycles of the past are dead; decision making today is far more frequent and the rapid conversion of data to insight is fundamental. We are currently in an age of data abundance due to the increasing intelligence trail left by digital media. Whilst this data has been heavily used in reporting, the move towards real time analysis and automation are where the biggest changes will occur in 2012. Google Analytics has announced it is rolling out its real-time web analytics product in 2012. Whilst the data may not be entirely new, the ability to interpret and incorporate faster decision making will be increasingly attractive for clients and agencies. Agencies will have a critical role to play, as they start to become hubs for many of these data feeds. The skill is going to be in balancing the sophistication of technology needed to deal with it, with the ability to take appropriate action. Demand Side Platforms are a good example of this in practice. In 2012 we estimate that at least 20% of all online display inventories will be traded in this way, effectively using real-time consumer data to optimise the buying of campaigns in a live environment.

Speed and the data driven ability to change direction will probably steal the headlines in 2012, but the inter-media decisions are likely to fall to human planners. Planners’ value will be in their ability to match observed consumer data like Google and Social Media sentiment, to claimed and behavioural data from sources like TGI and IPA Touchpoints. Planning media will still remain grounded in consumer behaviour, but the requirement to investigate and interpret multiple data sources will grow significantly. This is why we at Arena see the digital analysts working alongside traditional planners to help power this detective work. So, access to more data appears to be a good thing, but what could scupper the party is the re-emergence of the EU directive on Cookie usage. May 2011 saw the directive come into force, followed by a year’s grace in which the digital landscape could get its house in order. The result: confusion still reigns, as the no workable solution to comply with the directive has been found and no help has come as yet from the Government’s Information Commissioner’s Office. Maybe there are other priorities within the EU that may take precedence come May 2012…

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press

The freemium of the press

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Daniel Booth, Arena Media

As the online world continues to evolve, it has been expected that the print medium will be sacrificed to feed this growth. However, print products are perfectly placed to not only complement online journalism, but also offer respite from the potential screen overload. With the current 24/7/365 climate, anyone with a web connection is a part time journalist, critic or even broadcaster. However, Newspapers and Magazines offer a regular, more trusted, informed and reliable source of information, refining the excess of material available. This higher quality content gives the medium a unique stance within the overall media marketplace, and of course offering something portable, foldable, tangible and, most importantly, not on a screen. Following the continued success of the free titles, 2012 has the potential to be a huge year for all adopting the “Freemium” model. The more established titles, Sport and Shortlist, are dominating the men’s marketplace and the relatively new Stylist is challenging the status

quo within the tough women’s lifestyle sector. Not to forget the strength of the free papers, Metro, Evening Standard and City AM, available daily. This continued success comes after the realisation among consumers that a free product doesn’t mean publishers forego quality content. 2012 is set to be a big year due to the hot topic; the London Olympics, and the Freemium titles are perfectly placed to take advantage of increased visitors to the capital; releasing bumper issues and weekend editions to help meet the demands of consumers hungry for all things Olympic, and helping prove that good quality content doesn’t mean a cash cover price. So, while publishers are trying to find successful commercial models for paid digital content, the irony is that in print, the likely trend will be towards finding ways to monetise free distribution. 15


generation on demand The rise of

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Andy Hart, Microsoft

There’s been a dramatic acceleration in the evolution of media consumption over the last 18 months that’s been driven by technological innovation. The proliferation of channels and media providers, along with expansion of social media, places the connected consumer in the driving seat when it comes to the what, where and how. New channels available to consumers allow social sharing, online video, mobile, touchscreens and now even natural user interfaces (NUI). Think back ten, five or even three years ago would you have even considered these technologies as being core to your consumer engagement campaign? Advertisers need to keep up with the pace of innovation, or risk being left behind. Where once upon a time all a marketer had to do was stump up for a thirty second spot in the right TV show to attain 70% reach, today’s complex and fragmented landscape demands a much more sophisticated approach to the business of finding your target audience. With consumers increasingly being able to tune-out from advertising altogether, the notion of the ‘hard sell’ seems equally arcane. The typical up-market British consumer now

owns a smartphone, PC, gaming console, connected TV and tablet device and has the world literally at their fingertips, and at all times. They expect and deserve an integrated and connected experience and this is creating a new audience, the ‘Generation on Demand’. Technology is part of their DNA and they want to connect with relevant brands, share their consumer experiences, watch content socially and broadcast their thoughts and ideas. It’s our job as content creators, publishers, media owners and advertisers to adapt to their schedule and location – not the other way around. Companies like Microsoft must provide a rich canvas of advertising experiences to bring brands’ stories to life and engage a target audience wherever they happen to be, whatever they happen to be doing. Advertisers must think creatively and target their audience effectively, with engaging and interactive campaigns across multi-screens that encourage a two-way conversation. 17


digital What’s next and beyond? 18


David Graham, Havas Digital

This year, each business area has been asked to study the tea leaves at the bottom of their respective media teacup to see what the future holds for the next twelve months and beyond. I’ve drunk a lot of tea over these past few weeks while considering the big digital themes, but no-matter how hard I try not to, I can’t help straying into the media realms of my colleagues. I’ve thought about connected TV’s and dual screen experiences – but this has got to be a key trend for my TV colleagues. I’ve considered the rise and rise of mobile and the web unplugged, but that’s a topic for my mobile friends. I couldn’t do that to them. I’ve even mulled over the increase of personalised content curation; platforms like Flipboard, and an ever more personalised digital experience made possible through data. At last, data gets cool and surely it would be wrong of me to steal the thunder from those boys and girls who have long understood the potential of data that the rest of us are only now beginning to appreciate. That would be daylight robbery! Before firing up my keyboard, I figured that having the digital card would make this task a cinch; there’s so much innovation and disruption that I could pick any number of things. But what I’ve come to realise is that it’s becoming increasingly difficult to isolate digital both in the world we live in today as

consumers and in how we do our day job as marketing practioners. Is Million Pound Drop or Zeebox a TV or a digital experience? It’s both of these. Can the ever-expanding Xbox LIVE platform stay pigeonholed as just a gaming channel? Of course not, it’s truly multichannel. Is the future of data just about what we do on our tablets and PC’s? Increasingly not, as more and more of the technology we use becomes Internet enabled and starts to generate its own visible data trail. So, I can’t help feeling, as everything becomes digital, that the digital moniker will start to fade, and it becomes harder to define media and technology as anything other than digital. Layered over this “everything digital” scenario are brand experiences that are increasingly always on and frictionless – accessible wherever and whenever we want and existing effortlessly across whatever platforms or devices we choose. Due to traditional structures, working practices and decision processes, this is neither a comfortable nor a natural state for many brands today. What makes this situation all the more pressing is it’s exactly what we, as consumers, are already warming to, and increasingly expecting. For the successful brands in 2012 and beyond, it’s not only a challenge they are starting to solve for; it’s a promise they will deliver on.

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advertisers

The age of consent: ePrivacy & agency trading

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Bob Wootton, ISBA

Don't worry folks, I'm not going to bang on about Contract Rights Renewal. December’s outcomes of Ofcom’s reviews of the quantity of airtime permitted and the way it is traded mean that the prospect is business more or less as usual in the mainstream UK TV market. Meanwhile, the economy remains extremely precarious. Despite the extremely sobering daily commentary coming from Europe and now the Far East, our industry is incapable of predicting negative growth, so the parameters we’re all working within are zero to two per cent. It’s going to be damn tough for some time yet. So instead, I'd like to focus on two quite different things which I believe will have huge influences on the industry in 2012 and beyond. One is an external influence, the other internal. The external one first: you surely can't have missed at least some of the kerfuffle about the EU's ePrivacy Directive. ISBA's own Director of Public Affairs, Ian Twinn, was an MEP at its inception and avers that it was a piece of flawed legislation whose flaws will become more apparent and concerning as member states implement it. It requires web users to have consented to being tracked by way of cookies and other technologies. The knotty point is of course how to define 'consent'. UK Government has been receptive to the views of industry, but the Information Commissioner who will regulate compliance less so. Right now, industry finds itself trying to prepare for full implementation in May 2012 without clear guidance, but with the threat of significant (could be six figures!) fines if it does not comply. Taken literally, the livelihood of the UK digital economy itself is under threat. Not only does a recent Ofcom report confirm that the UK’s digital economy is some way ahead of most of the rest of the world, but it’s also one of the UK's key growth sectors.

The hope is that regulators won’t stymie one of the few remaining examples of UK pre-eminence. Anyone involved in online or direct marketing should certainly get involved and find out more from their relevant trade body. So to the internal influence: with on-going advertiser pressure on agency margins and SarbOx continuing to exact transparency (at least from US-owned agencies) and now similar legislation in prospect in the EU, it must only be a matter of a short amount of time before agency trading floors are a thing of the past. Dozens, if not hundreds of people stand to be replaced by much smaller mixed groups of senior traders and IT people operating an almost deadly silent room full of computers trading media 24/7/365. Such trading methods are already becoming widespread in the digital space with Agency Trading Desks and Demand Side Platforms proliferating as real-time targeting and trading of individual impressions spreads, but it hasn't travelled across to legacy media trading – yet. Will 2012 finally see the industry fully embracing electronic trading? I recently acted as one of the mentors at NABS’ excellent ‘speed mentoring’ event, and to those young media traders who attended and sought my view, my counsel was “get to the very top of the pile in your organisation quickly or start retraining NOW”. 21


gamification The game layer


Justin Gibbons, Arena Media

We all play games. Some people are addicted to computer games, some people collect things, some set themselves private and personal challenges. Game play is a core part of the human condition; it’s something we’ve always done and in all likelihood always will. And the good news is that it’s a serious new tactic in marketing and communications. The Game Layer describes the use of game design technique and mechanics to solve problems and engage audiences. In the real world this comes to life in the form of enhanced competition mechanics, reward based loyalty schemes and is used to motivate people through dull things like surveys and applications. To give you a current example, Aquafresh have recently produced an app which builds a competitive element into their tooth-brushing song, encouraging kids to brush for the required two minutes to earn on-screen rewards. The proliferation of whizzy mobile devices and touchscreen tablets has supercharged the world of gamification. Cheap, compelling, hand held gameplay has become very accessible. People have also started to multi-task their media, using devices to add a layer of interaction to their primary medium. Big event TV now comes accompanied by Twitter feeds, Facebook groups or the awesome Zeebox app, pumping live info and feedback from your social network and beyond.

The Game Layer thrives on two things: fun and winning. Get these right and you’re playing the game. Firstly fun; the pleasure centres in the human brain are one of the primary drivers of behaviour. In fact, they override our more rational and reasonable cognitive functions; essentially we are hardwired to seek enjoyment and base decisions on the path of most reward. The Game Layer introduces fun to marketing, and is especially powerful in ‘low interest’ categories which suffer from consumer switch off. No category is immune to fun; think toilet roll puppies, online aggregator meerkats, greeting card Facebook credits. Fun isn’t enough on its own though, the Game Layer needs a goal – namely to win. Psychologists will tell you that humans are ‘goal oriented’, that we are driven by the need to achieve. In game play this is framed as either winning or completing. Foursquare will award you the mayorship of a venue if you check in there more than anyone else. LinkedIn has a ‘progress bar’ that show you where you are in your LinkedIn journey. Both mechanics encourage usage and driven interaction. My advice for 2012: enjoy exploring the Game Layer (fun) and use it to make your marketing even more effective (win). 23


iTelly

TV in a connected and converged world Jonathan Allan, Channel 4


“

The most recent phase of digital TV evolution was characterised by the growth of multichannel TV. During this period, C4’s multichannel strategy was uniquely successful amongst the PSBs in increasing portfolio share and we also adopted a pioneering position in VoD and are now the largest commercial provider in the market. Going forward, platform dynamics appear relatively stable, with linear viewing remaining strong despite the proliferation of VoD consumption and we believe that TV in its broadest definition will remain the most powerful medium in terms of brand building capability and ROI. However, these trends mask the fundamental change presented by the next phase of digital TV - an era characterised by the rapid roll out of superfast broadband and the proliferation of connected devices. This convergence breaks down silos, allowing the audience to consume televisual content when, where and how they wish. It also radically increases the potential and scope of the old gogglebox, as we will have registered and logged in viewers watching shows through connected devices. If, like us, you believe that TV will remain a core medium for your commercial messaging over the next 15-20 years, then we would challenge you to start testing new ways of using it to future proof the effectiveness of your communications. For example, we intend to use the connected, creative, technical and commercial opportunities afforded by convergence to transform our viewers into members of a shared place within our changing society and culture - one that helps to stimulate their lives. We will champion and lead this new idea of Mutual Media - by 2020 millions of people will be members of Channel 4, engaging with emerging ideas

through us in ever deeper and more creative life-enriching ways. To achieve this we are investing a huge amount into creating our Viewer Relationship Management (VRM) programme, incentivising our connected viewers to register with us and login every time they watch. This means we know who they are, can offer personalised services and also reward loyalty. As a result, you will have far more interesting targeting opportunities and ways of engaging with our audiences beyond the spot. Additionally, we have a significant R&D budget that is being invested in programmes and concepts that are developed with a connected, dual screening world at their core. We are also briefing digital and gaming businesses to pitch ideas to us, not just TV production companies. Early examples are The Million Pound Drop and The Bank Job where viewers can play along live with the onscreen action and are also fully leveraged through social applications. In the latter, the contestants were selected from being successful in an online game, of which we had well over a million plays. We were also the first broadcaster to partner with Zeebox for Desperate Scousewives, to give viewers a bespoke social TV experience through the introduction of specifically commissioned content, which included related Twitter feeds and news, instant chat with friends, information on tagged programme content via Wikipedia. This year, we will also be leading the charge on understanding how TV can ignite and amplify social engagement to build mutually reinforcing cycles between bought, owned and earned media. We are also working with continued...

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Adjust Your Set to explore potential advertising opportunities on Smart TVs, YouView and companion devices such as tablets and smartphones. So, what does all this mean for you as the marketer? Consider the idea that in a non-linear world, buying time may just become the start of your customer's engagement journey and you could think about producing longer form content than a 30" or a 60" ad. Advertiser funded programming is finally coming into its own from an ROI perspective due to the new product placement rules and you could potentially sell product straight off the screen. You can also start to connect your TV ads directly into your own world, whether that be social or gaming environments, or simply driving a transaction through on-air promotions or competitions. Rather than just running your straight linear TV ads on VOD, think about using it more powerfully by adding in creativity that leverages and amplifies the interactivity. Also, take advantage of the increasing dual-screening that is happening alongside linear TV (we ran some interesting real-time combined TV/online advertising last year that proved very effective). This way of watching will become much more the norm in a few years time, so don't miss out on testing ideas now, cheaply and with low-risk. Also, ponder the fact we will soon know who is actually watching individually, at scale and how that might change your targeting approach, or personalisation of messages. We also may be able to match your customer data with our Viewer Relationship Management (VRM) database, so we could run joint promotions and could also target your actual CRM segments with different messages. So, it's still telly, just not as we know it.

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rise of the connected screen Taking outdoor to gold standard

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Frank Bryant, Posterscope

Today, we are spending 53% more time out of home compared with 1994. Consumers are increasingly ‘networked’ whilst on the move, as smart mobile technology sails beyond critical mass. This is starting to change the way that people connect and share with each other, consume content and buy things. And it is changing the face of outdoor advertising. Approximately 196,000 digital screens now exist in five different environments; roadside, rail, leisure and Underground. We believe in 2012, advertisers’ will be able to reappraise what OOH media can deliver in the context of this new connected economy. Near Field Communication (NFC), Augmented Reality, and the rise of geo-social networking has completely opened up a range of opportunities to have a far richer interaction with the consumer, from delivering content, driving search or even acting as a point of purchase. The continued growth of digital inventory also provides a huge degree of opportunity and flexibility, in how brands can reach their target audience at the right time, in the right environment and in the right mind-set, targeting by location, by day-part, or even, for example, by weather, using relevant copy which can be changed at a moment’s notice. What’s more, how we measure outdoor has become more sophisticated to match the advances in technology. The

launch of the new Postar Out-of-Home audience research will give us the ability to plan against very specific audiences, across multiple formats and environments. In the immediate future, the 2012 Olympics will bring significant opportunities for the Out-of-Home medium – with both sponsors and non-sponsors, benefitting from the increased audiences, both domestic and overseas, particularly in London. OOH locations will contribute massively to the look and feel of the participating cities, and have high audience impact at key transport hubs and main arterial routes. There will be an abundance of ‘live’ sites broadcasting the event, resulting in even more people out of home – and more advertising opportunities. And what is the biggest challenge we face? Put simply, creativity. Unfortunately despite the many advancements made in the OOH medium, it is still all too common to see uninspiring, unimaginative creative work under-mining the true potential of our channel. Challenge can soon be turned in to unbridled opportunity if the digital potential and targeting capability of OOH can be supported by creative treatment that truly engages with the consumer on the move. 29


search meets discovery

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Search is such a part of our lives that it’s easy to forget that it’s less than 15 years old. Yet the list of regular tasks we default to search for continues to grow every year. When was the last time that you opened a Yellow Pages? Went into a travel agents? Scanned the classified ads? Search Engines themselves have gone through a huge transformation, from a simple directory of websites to being a powerful and instant way of finding any information - text, image, or video. Or as Google nobly put it: ‘satisfying your quest for knowledge’. As the sheer volume of information and content at our fingertips has grown, we have had to find a way to filter out the irrelevant and mediocre. Where previously I relied on a few chosen publishers to source, edit, and deliver me content, now I am more and more discovering the web through the filter of my social networks. The Likes, Tweets and +1s of news articles, photos, videos, and product recommendations has led me into a much richer experience of the web as I discover more sites, great blogs, and ‘cool stuff’, where previously I thought ‘there’s just too much internet out there’.

Of course, now the worlds of search and discovery are converging, as search gets more social and social networks get more searchy. As Google rolls out its latest and most radical version of social search in Search Plus Your World it is the clearest indication yet that the future of search is social: the answer to your question, either directly from your friends (David shared a link with you) or endorsed by them (Robyn +1’d this). This is a going to have a huge impact on search marketing in time, but essentially it puts even greater emphasis on the importance of delivering a great product or service in the first instance. If you are going to win those advocates and garner those likes, tweets, and +1s, to increase your presence in search engine results pages, then you have to deliver a customer experience that is worthy of a recommendation. If customers don’t like it, they won’t Like it. As we analyse and debate Google’s latest move in the social space, it is worth remembering Facebook’s mantra that businesses must become social by design and organise themselves around people and their customers. It’s increasingly becoming the people’s web and brands have to earn their place in it, even in search.

Ed Cox, Arena Media

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The year of asking

one big question 32


Steve Stretton, AIS

That’s where we as agencies come in. Yes, it’s an uncertain world. Yes, the options are endless. And yes, every question has multiple answers. Some of them may even be right. But our real value is in knowing the one question that needs to be asked. The biggest one. The most important one. The scariest one. The one that can’t be avoided.

And the best agencies are the ones that not only know how to ask that one question, but how to answer it too. There’s only one thing that’s certain for 2012: there’s going to be a whole lot more uncertainty. For any of us who are involved in any aspect of marketing, that means trying to answer even more questions than ever before: Do I play it safe? Do I just let my brand tick over? Or do I go for it? Shall I be brave, and make sure my brand stands out this year? But how am I going to do that?

And by ‘answer it’, I don’t mean sell clients some complex, half-baked, ill thought-out load of blah. Some b******t that’s been pulled off the shelf, waiting to be passed on to the next hapless punter coming past. Or some achingly fashionable piece of tech that’s only used by five skinny-trousered 20-year-olds in Shoreditch. I mean an answer that’s a clear and simple solution. Based on genuine advice. Advice that’s impartial. From agencies that are allies – helping them to negotiate the minefield of issues that this year will throw up. The last thing any client will want this year is an agency giving them more and more useless options; selling them things they didn't ask for.

Do I put all of this year’s budget into social media?

Or should I zag against the prevailing currents and bet everything on TV?

I’m looking at the deleted items in my inbox. In the last hour I've got rid of six average photographers, a sales training course, two illustrators, a social media advertising training course, a stock photography library, something to do with PDFs, a murder mystery evening on a steam train, and a guaranteed erection.

Where else is my brand going to need to be this year? What new platforms am I going to have to be on top of?

All of them unasked for. Most of them unwanted. I don't want more choice. More options. More questions.

Are my competitors going to be there? What are they going to do?

Neither do our clients. They just want the right answer.

Can I get something out of the Olympics and the Euros? Or should I just ignore them?

To the right question.

Should I get my agency to build my brand a social network?

The list of dilemmas to be addressed, problems to be wrestled with, decisions to be made, seems almost infinite. Doesn’t it. 33


social media Dabbling must give way for strategy 34


Malcolm Devoy, Arena Media

Social Media has frequently been fragmented in approach to date, with 95% of CEOs of the top 100 brands claiming to do some Social Media, however 50% are operating without a strategy (Havas and ISBA research, 2011). 2012 will see the rise of the Social Strategy. In the spirit of integration, Social will stop being a separate channel, but will be integral to all other marketing assets and channels, and will assert those brave brands’ dominance in an ever changing market place. The brands that integrate all their content with a Social Strategy will stand out. Sharing of information through social media platforms will expose the trivial ideas of those only dabbling within Social Media, and it will be the ones that stand out in the social space will be the ones that compete for their share of conversation amongst the influentials. Numerous campaigns, spots and promotional efforts won’t result in anything really worthy if you keep to traditional ways of engagement. Being different is the only way to survive.

There have been many success stories in 2011 with social content, but it will not be sufficient to reproduce these in 2012 and expect a similar result. The ones that do well in 2012 will be the ones that create specific bespoke content for Social Media. People have an appetite to be entertained and inspired, and we, as marketers, need to continually challenge how we do this. 2012 will see the volume of excellent content shared through online channels increase exponentially, and we can’t wait to be a part of it. What this means for agencies and clients is the need to be brave, even in the face of on-going economic stability, and not settle on the low risk, low reward strategy of the past, but to truly integrate social and content at the heart of their marketing vision. 35


where is what’s next

36


That is indeed the question as we move into 2012 and a huge year for marketers with the eyes of the world fixed on us this summer. It’s a time where we’ll see some giant shifts in marketing as the technology beds in around it and communication platforms open up to brands still further. For me, there are few things to consider amongst the challenges and opportunities in what next… First up is the way in which we get around and discover. Much of the fun of discovery has been lost through SatNav and Google search technology but all that is about to change again with Location aware data and messaging. 85% of Goggle searches are based around location. We use our smart phones and their apps to guide us from hotels to high streets. 2012 will see location-based enablement really start to establish itself in the mainstream. Services such as Repudo, Block Chalk and Nixie already allow consumer to leave virtual messages, images and video in fixed locations and this is hallowed turf for marketers keen to engage with consumers on the street. Imagine being able to leave a video message directly for consumers at the point of purchase or in the middle of a music festival campsite. This is also set to dramatically increase with the full introduction of 4G broadband towards the end of the year. Sticking with the high street for a moment, the other growth area that we will see blossom in 2012 will be Mobile Wallet and Near Field Communication (NFC). Since the partnership announcement between Mastercard and Google in the middle of last year we have seen a few

Mike Mathieson, Cake

examples of this technology coming to light but 2012 will see the exponential rise in NFC, touch and go payments and services. Alongside Social platforms, this will open up new ways in which to interact with consumers, provide recommendation and peer to peer advocacy. Over the past few months we have seen a sharp rise in the use of the word ‘cloud’ and ‘cloud computing’. Technology experts will point their hands enthusiastically towards the ceiling whenever the word is mentioned. Clearly then, this must be important stuff, especially as we saw at CES in Las Vegas nearly all the computer giants have launched their own ‘clouds’. This enables computer companies to make consistently thinner and faster machines and store all of our data in their proprietary on-line lockers. There’s good and bad in this from a consumer perspective of course – faster machines but potentially less secure data and supplier lock-in’s. Either way for marketers, the opportunity to create tablet-friendly creative and media has never looked brighter. Finally, what do I believe will be the greatest challenge for marketers in 2012? Without doubt the greatest threat to brands in 2012 is the power of real time. 2011 saw many examples of poorly managed Social channels and large corporations exposed in real time by individuals and their networks. 2012 will be the year that brands will need to harness chaos through improved listening, procedure, communication and interaction. 37


video on demand Mainstream for the masses

38


Pedro Avery, Arena Media

2012 will be remembered for many things but perhaps the most inexorable trend has been in TV and the emergence of VOD as a mainstream solution for advertisers looking to attract youth audiences. The shift has been seismic and is already putting pressure on traditional TV free to air advertising models for buying and reaching this audience. Currently, 16-34 audiences represent on average 20% of TV stations revenue. The cost to advertisers has materially risen to reach this highly elusive group over last three years as their TV viewing disperses across platform. Do advertisers need to pay this highly inflated price? In recent weeks, we have increasingly witnessed TV programmes deliver more viewers on VOD than on traditional mainstream TV. This was exacerbated with the final episode of TOWIE, which delivered over 57% of its total audiences via iPlayer – be it PC, mobile or tablet. That’s impressive; demonstrating how VOD viewing has captured the hearts and minds of this elusive and hard to reach audience. Today we live in a ‘Catch-up Culture’; where the consumer has on-demand access to content across multiple platforms well beyond the scheduled broadcast. Add to this, the media

attention around headline programming like TOWIE and The X Factor, and the social media interest it creates, the lifecycle of a TV show’s awareness is greatly extended. These two factors are fuelling audience volumes for VOD, and it is the youth audiences who are feasting most. The issue for TV stations is that increasingly advertisers will turn their back on traditional TV and harness the power of iPlayer viewing; especially to reach these lighter viewers cheaper than on mainstream TV. It will also drive up the need for certain brands to consider extending their broadcast strategy to consider AFP or branded content. Again, this will particularly be the case with the younger audiences. Branded Content, exclusively running on VOD, done properly, will be the next step. Recent TGI research shows that lightest viewing 16-34 adults are heavy VOD users and research by Lippencott and Decipher highlights that viewer engagement and brand recall via VOD is much higher for an advertised brand than traditional TV. So, in 2012 expect to see increasingly higher percentages of budgets going towards iPlayers and don’t be surprised to see recommendations tipping 25%, if the 14-24’s are the bullseye audience. 39


screens

and beyond

Rohan Tambyrajah, Arena Media

40


I like the idea that Digital is becoming more than just screens and channels; that the landscape is changing dramatically; that the experiences we have the ability to create for consumers are not confined by traditional definitions anymore. For a long time we reached consumers and made efficiencies through mastering the different and ever growing uses of web based technology. Every time something new came along, it was the product of a consumer need or a technological advancement that fitted into a nice little space that we called a channel. Search categorised the web and provided a hierarchy based on relevance that made it easy for us to find stuff. So we understood that and used marketing systems that could interpret this new behaviour and turn it into a point of paid-for connection for our clients. It became a channel, and like the other channels, a way of directing to a point of commerce or branded experience that lived on the web. Then Social came along and that shifted the paradigm. It wasn’t enough just to shout about things and buy people’s attention, we had to earn it. And most recently, Mobile, which moved our connectivity from fixed locations to an open and roaming state, and turned us into always-on consumers. All of this evolved across one common canvas - the screen. And this is where we should look to how we think about the future. As circuitry becomes cheaper and more powerful, screens are becoming increasingly ubiquitous and beginning to permeate every facet of everyday life. 2012 will likely see more flat

surfaces becoming screens and more of these screens will become interactive. Increasingly we’ll be touching them, gesturing at them and talking to them - and becoming accustomed to doing so as part of our everyday behaviours. Microsoft Kinect style gesture based interfaces and Apple Siri type voice controllers will become more commonplace and will create a much more human connection with media and technology. They will connect us to the world around us and become the window to all that lives on the cloud and beyond. Sainsbury’s are due to start rolling out shopping trolleys equipped with Tablets to keep their customers entertained while they shop, McDonald's will start installing touch screen ordering kiosks and department stores will start to offer accompanying apps to enhance the shopping experience. But whilst Digital in 2012 will be about the growth of the screen, we will also see it start to outgrow the screen and move into a space where it begins to power objects and real things. We will see the beginning of a trend that will be centred around injecting media and data into physical artefacts to bring them to ‘life’, through simple artificial intelligence. We have a deep-rooted need to humanistic contact and experiences that cannot be facilitated just through screens and this will lead to a rise in things like 3D printers, print copies of curated news and real world interaction points with social networks. Simply put, 2012 will see Digital go further than before, fully integrate itself in to our lives, and establish itself as the platform upon which we build things. For brands, this means the design of business, product, service and of course, media. 41


technology 2012: a developer’s dream

42


Raul Marengo, Arena Media

Throughout 2011, we witnessed the “applification” of the web – where content sitting in traditional websites was being challenged by specialized bundles of digital content geared for particular devices (aka apps). Additionally, we have been swamped by a plethora of different devices with varying screen sizes and capabilities that we need to ensure our websites can cater for. Mobile traffic is no longer a small trend in the market nor is it a negligible portion of your online visits; this is quickly becoming a preferred way to consume the web. Access to online content through alternative devices (tablets, mobiles, gaming consoles, TV sets, blah blah) will continue to grow at an exponential rate in 2012 as will the growth in apps. We will also have to be conscious of the difference between the “sitting user” and the “roaming user” who will favour “thumb-friendly” interfaces and our ability to provide them with location aware content. This all represents a significant challenge for us website developers. We will no longer just have to worry about ensuring our amazing creations are compatible with different browsers; it will now be paramount to create sites accessible through different platforms.

And there’s the impact of social. With the continuing growth of Facebook and Twitter and the emergence of Google+, the opportunity to take our websites beyond their basic functionality and level of user engagement is here and ready to be used. It’s all about being more Social - which is never a bad thing, right? Brands are currently able to interact with their visitors at a much more personal level by using data available through Facebook’s OpenGraph or can engage with them face-toface through Google+ Hangouts. The latter might not have the numbers but that opportunity is very exciting for developers. The bottom line: this is no longer a matter of having a presence within social networks but of social networks having a presence within our websites and integrating with them to make the most out of their functionality. In 2012, brands will be challenged to show their ability to “be social” and to provide more engaging experiences on their websites. 2011 felt like the building blocks of what is going to be an exciting year for new technology and there will be a significant focus shift towards user experience, usability and accessibility to ensure that our media budgets and our websites perform as efficiently as possible. 43


social tv

Millennials and the second screen

44


In 2012, we are predicting that Social TV will become mainstream, offering exciting opportunities for consumers, TV networks and brands. Social TV is a term that describes the technology that supports communication and social interaction in the context of TV content. TV has always sparked conversation. Offices up and down the country have been full of chatter on Dirty Den’s latest antics or whether a contestant picked the right blind date. These ‘water cooler’ moments are being replaced by ‘social media’ moments. We are still having the same conversations we had 20-30 years ago but with new technology they are now happening in real-time during the show. At Be Viacom we are especially interested in Social TV because the majority of users are ‘Millennials’, people aged 12 -29. The ‘Millennials’ are our core audience and they are a digitally empowered generation. They want to connect to people whilst they are watching TV and they want to be actively heard. This activity is mostly taking place through apps on mobile devices like laptops, tablets & smartphones, known in the context of social TV as ‘2nd screens’. The main driver behind Social TV is the high rate of adoption in the usage of 2nd screens whilst watching TV. 80% of under 25’s in the UK have used a mobile device to communicate with friends while watching TV.

At Be Viacom we have been monitoring this behaviour for a few years and it’s clear that we are seeing a shift from the early adopters to the early majority, bringing the scale & reach marketers want. Social networks have also played a significant role in driving this behaviour, in particular Twitter which in 2011 exploded with TV-related comments, leading many observers to comment that it would re-define live TV. We are also seeing the emergence of companies who can process these social expressions into actionable & measurable data for TV networks & brands. Understanding in real-time which shows engage audiences most or which ads get a positive reaction is very powerful information to have. At Be Viacom we are excited about the opportunities this will give brands to engage with our audience. Social TV will enable brands to become even more integrated with the content, more connected to viewers & genuinely become part of the entertainment. The 30 second spot in an ad-break on TV can evolve into a much deeper digital experience on a 2nd screen, especially with the help of augmented reality technology, whether it’s unlocking exclusive content or offering utility by providing more product information or enabling a purchase.

Tom Armstrong, BE Viacom 45


agencies 7 steps to heaven

46


7 things for brand owners and agencies to do in 2012 Janet Hull, IPA

1. think big

The UK will be on the global stage. How can you make your UK presence felt globally?

2. think small 3. simplify

When times are tough, every little helps. Make the detail make a difference.

Make data make sense. Justify your actions with evidence.

4. experiment 5. join forces

Apply the 20% rule to your own marketing activities. What can you test and learn?

How can you extend/expand your network of influence? Think B2B as well as B2C.

6. hold your nerve

Don't compromise long term relationships for a short-term fix.

7. be a creative pioneer

Let creative thinking about how to use new technology take your business to a new level 47


e-Economy New connections

48


Last year, Google sponsored the UK premier of ‘Transcendent Man’, a film inspired by the lifework of Ray Kurzweil. He’s a successful inventor, businessman and futurologist. Predicting the future is a notoriously hazardous occupation, but he claims that his predictions are accurate nearly 90% of the time. His technique is actually quite simple: he takes existing technological trends such as Moore’s Law and plays them forward. He then ‘invents in the future’. One of the key factors in his models is that technological development is exponential. We tend to think in straight lines, and so really grasping this is difficult. It also takes you to some radical places. For instance, he predicts that artificial intelligence will overtake human intelligence in the late 2020s. If you are interested in learning more, watch ‘Transcendent Man’ or look up Ray on YouTube. The key point remains that we are now living in an age of unprecedented technological development. It’s relentlessly accelerating product development cycles and redefining business models. Closer to home, we see that the e-Economy is the engine of UK plc. Our Connected Kingdom report reveals that the fast growing internet economy is worth over £100 billion per year, representing about 7% of GDP. It’s one reason for optimism amid a turbulent macro economic environment. The pattern is repeated within the advertising industry, where the well-known IAB Ad Spend Study sees online standing out as a source of double digit growth. Consumers are actively embracing this new world: globally 700,000 Android devices are activated per day, whilst Gartner says sales of tabs and pads grew 260% in 2011. Likewise, connected TVs are quickly entering the mainstream: John Lewis expect that 80% of their large screen TV sales will be internet connected.

Dominic Allon, Google UK

These new connections will change the way we buy. Thirty eight per cent of consumers with a smartphone use mobile to make a purchase, according to a recent comScore study. Meanwhile e-commerce retailers are currently seeing over 10% of their web traffic coming from mobile devices and, of course, a huge number of these start with mobile search and mobile search ads. Our new connected society is not just transforming buying behaviour, it’s redefining the path to purchase. The ‘research online, purchase offline’ (aka ROPO) effect is now accepted as an established consumer behaviour among multi-channel retailers. The question now is how to optimise a broader range of consumer touch points, including the rich mix of digital influences, to win at every stage of the path to purchase. So how can we make sense of this dizzying pace of change and new set of marketing models? Well, at Google we have our ‘ten things’ guiding philosophy. These are ‘ten things we know to be true’ and are core principles that anchor our actions. The first should resonate for anyone that cares about customers. It’s ‘Focus on the user and all else will follow’. So whilst much is changing, it’s reassuring to see that one thing stays the same: keeping the customer at the heart of your business. 49


mobile

The year of mobile (again)

50


You heard it here first. 2011 was the year mobile arrived. OK, so you knew that already – but let’s just give it some context, because it’s most definitely true.

Jay Chauhan, Arena Media

Almost half of all phones are now smartphones (up from a quarter the year before) and 69% of smartphone users have gone online via their mobile. 51% have engaged in some form of m-commerce, from researching the product to paying straight to their bill. Let’s face it, we shudder at the prospect of leaving home without our phones, and for some of us, it’s the first thing we look at in the morning. OK I admit it. So without dishing out more stats about where we think smartphone penetration will get to (75% - sorry, couldn’t resist), how will this mobile explosion influence consumers and create new opportunities for brands? Let’s boil it down to 4 trends we have to look out for. 1.

2.

Consumers will expect ‘Frictionless commerce’ which creates a seamless experience across all touchpoints including in-store, online, mobile and tablets. This will improve flexibility for customers and ultimately make it easier for them to purchase. E.g. ordering on mobile but being able to return in-store. Brand owners will need to understand the influence of mobile in both extending and disrupting the customer journey and, as ever, getting to grips with data will be key. The combination of Mobile with Social content and location based targeting will seriously open up new opportunities for smart retailers to drive incremental revenues through proximity marketing. Gartner talk about this leading to Context-based services where the So-Lo-Mo capability is combined with knowing more personalized information about an

individual. This will enable brands to offer out highly relevant products based on where someone is, what they need and what we know about them on a social level. Think of Interflora being able to send an offer to a man on the move who forgot his wife’s birthday just as he passes their nearest branch before jumping on his commuter train home. This is not a distant reality. Of course, I would never do that. What a caveman. 3.

A whole new payment eco-system is on its way with NFC. The advantages for consumers are clear: not just quicker, more convenient payments, but also e-receipts, easily accessible purchase histories, automatic and more accurate rewards and loyalty points, personalised deals, discounts and even recommendations. For brands, it means be prepared for consumers to want to shop at pace. The influence of mobile will be as far-reaching as changing store designs.

4.

Finally, mobile and other connected devices will fast become the interactive device of the TV. You don’t need to buy a “connected TV” to have an interactive experience. We will see more brands integrating recognition technology to enhance their communication. E.g. The music from the TV ad is recognised by your mobile device and automatically offers you content on your second screen.

So if 2011 was the year mobile arrived, 2012 is the year it took off. You heard it here first. 51


Predictions

Lawdy, I am wary of predictions, but... 52


Rory Sutherland, Ogilvy Group

1 2 3 4 5

We seem to have a problem where current technological advances destroy more jobs than they create. Bear in mind that the number of people employed in manufacturing is smaller than it was 15 years ago - even in China.

Income inequality and especially intergenerational inequality will worsen.

The pace of innovation in media consumption will slow overall, with connected TV and mobile being the main areas of remaining change, together with some other thing as yet unanticipated.

Behavioural economics and complex systems thinking will helpfully continue to challenge some of the dangerous certainties of those who believe in perfectly efficient markets.

Nicholas Nasseem Taleb's upcoming book Antifragility will, for those who read it, be the most important book of the year. 53


www.arena-media.co.uk

What's next for 2012  

Arena Media sets out their vision for 2012.

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