AJRC_Analyses_2014A02 Fanni Bodri

CHINA-JAPAN ISLAND DISPUTES AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE 10 NOVEMBER HIGHLEVEL MEETING

FANNI BODRI

AJRC-Analyses 2014A02

AJRC-Analyses Series of the Antall József Knowledge Centre

Publisher: Antall József Knowledge Centre Publisher-in-Chief: Péter Antall Managing editor: Ádám Éva Editorial office: Antall József Knowledge Centre H-1093 Budapest, Közraktár utca 4-6.

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© Fanni Bodri, 2014 © Antall József Knowledge Centre, 2014 ISSN 2416-1705

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CHINA-JAPAN ISLAND DISPUTES AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE 10 NOVEMBER HIGH-LEVEL MEETING

Fanni Bodri

Three years following the last formal meeting of the two powers’ top leaders, President Xi Jinping met with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on 10 November. As the two powers vie for dominance in the region, the meeting raised hopes for the easing of tensions between the world’s second and third largest economies.

The matter at stake – overview Relations between the two Asian countries have been severely deteriorating since the last highlevel meeting took place in December 2011. The tendency is largely due to the long-lasting disputes over territorial sovereignty concerning the Diaoyu/Senkaku/Diaoyutai archipelago in the East China Sea, where historical ownership claims have been made by Japan, China and the de facto government of Taiwan. Although fishing, energy and natural resources doubtlessly play an important role in the conflict, the exact amount of reserves of natural resources in the area has yet to be determined. The United States Energy Information Administration estimates that the East China Sea has an abundance of 200 barrels of oil (MMbbl) in proved and probable reserves, as for natural gas, the EIA estimates that it has between 1 and 2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in proven and probable natural gas reserves.1 Since the rightful claim on the islands would greatly expand the maritime territory of the given country, thus allowing for a bigger potential in exploration and exploitation of natural resources, the conclusion can be drawn that the islands reach beyond the importance of simple geographical features and carry an inherent value to each competing nation.

Another aspect of the dispute is the creation of the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone by the PRC and the introduction of new air traffic restrictions in November 2013, which rewrites the freedom of the seas and skies, a principle in international law that Washington also pays special attention to in the region, which, once unilaterally altered, could set a dangerous precedent. An unintended military clash could result in the involvement of the United States, nonetheless, it is far from obvious how strong the US-Japan alliance would prove in case of the 1

United States Energy Information Administration, Analysis Brief: East China Sea, 17 September, 2014 Downloaded: http://www.eia.gov/countries/regions-topics.cfm?fips=ECS, 19 November, 2014

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escalation of the conflict. The terms of the 1895 Treaty of Shimonoseki are in play; the document that ended the First Sino-Japanese War, in which China ceded territories to Japan, including the Penghu Islands (Pescadores), but whether the Diaoyu/Senkaku/Diaoyutai islands were part of that chain was not explicitly stated in the text.

Current developments and conclusions of the high level meeting The high-level meeting came after a series of talks, as a result of which a four-point agreement was made between China and Japan on 7 November. According to the third point of the agreement both sides acknowledge that different positions exist between them regarding the tensions which have emerged in recent years, on the other hand the agreement also emphasizes the importance of resuming dialogue.

The high-level meeting between President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took place on the sidelines of the annual summit of Asia-Pacific leaders. The meeting comes as a breakthrough to boost bilateral cooperation after the Chinese leader’s two-year long refusal to meet his Japanese counterpart. Both sides admitted the importance of strengthening cooperation and the necessary improvements of diplomatic ties in favor of the vital economic relations. The United States welcomed the meeting.

As historical issues concern the feelings of both leaders’ domestic audiences, China sought reassurance that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would not revisit Yasukuni Shrine, which is a Japanese Shinto shrine to war dead, including wartime leaders convicted of some level of war crime after World War II, a promise the Japanese Premier is unlikely to make. Abe's visit to the controversial war shrine exacerbated tensions in December 2013, a move that angered both its neighbors and the United States.

A statement made by Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida on 11 November further intensified the conflict between the two countries by saying there is no territorial dispute over the Japan-controlled islands. The statement triggered an instant response from the Chinese Embassy in Tokyo. The spokesperson of the Embassy called on the Japanese side to move in accordance with the spirit of the agreement together with China.

Even though the top-level meeting did not bring tangible results in the bilateral cooperation, we cannot underestimate the importance of discussion and consultation, which are the first steps in rebuilding trust in the two countries’ relations.

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