5.2 Changes in the prevalence of activities, 2002 – 2008 In analysing the changes in the prevalence of activities between 2002 and 2008, the surveys provide two possible approaches, each with their potential pitfalls. Firstly, we can compare the information on activities listed in the 2002 survey with that of the 2008 survey. However, there was a considerable improvement in the quality of data collection in 2008. In the 2002 survey only 320 activities could be identified from the responses of NGOs with over 50% of NGOs not providing any information. This contrasts with over 2000 mentioned activities in the 2008 sample. Also, the comparison may be problematic because the 2008 question was phrased differently and did not appear in the same place in the questionnaire. The alternative is to use backward-looking questions that we had asked in 2008 survey about activities. However, recall error would be expected to be a significant issue here – especially given that the recall period of six years is considerable. Additionally there is a sampling issue at play here: we are comparing the 2002 and 2008 activities of the sample of NGOs that survived, thus excluding the 2002 NGO activities offered by NGOs that have since become extinct. Table 1 provides information on the changes in activities based on both methods. Both methods are likely to underreport activities in 2002 and thus to overestimate increase in activities since 2002. We have no evidence that underreporting will be unbiased. TABLE 1: Estimated changes in prevalence of activities, 2002 – 2008
Education and training HIV/AIDS awareness and training Community development Support to farmers and farming activities Advocacy and human rights Raising awareness including sensitisation Counselling Child services Preventative healthcare Curative healthcare
2008 43.9 28.2 27.5 21.8 19.1 18.9 18.1 15.8 15.1 13
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Estimates based on 2002 survey 2002 Change 44.9 -2% 9.6 194% 10.3 167% 22.8 -4% 7.4 158% 11 72% 9.6 89% 12.5 26% 16.2 -7% 18.4 -29%
Estimates based on recall using 2008 survey 2002 Change 36.3 21% 20.6 37% 20.2 36% 17.9 22% 16.6 15% 12.1 56% 16.1 12% 11.2 41% 4.9 206% 8.1 61%