COLOMBIA 1st SEMESTER HARVEST FORECAST 1st SEMESTER HARVEST 2018 SURVEY
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Executive Summary Weather Context Universe & Methodology Survey Results Quality Expectations
Executive Summary FIRST SEMESTER HARVEST 2018
After extensive on-the-ground visits and surveys, Caravela Coffee expects a reduction of 8-11% in the volumes of coffee produced during the first semester of 2018 (February to July) versus that same period in 2017. Heavy rains during the period of July to December 2017 affected the flowering and fruit development in the first half of 2018. The anticipated effect of this on final production volumes is expected to be much greater in the northern regions of the country, such as Antioquia and Caldas, with a possible decrease of up to 28%. In the south, the departments of Cauca and NariĂąo are likely to have a considerable decrease in production volumes, 18% and 21% respectively. In Huila however, an increase of 6.1% is expected and in Tolima a decrease of 6.0%, in comparison to last year. Rust and coffee berry borer levels at a country level are lower compared to the previous year. This does not include the departments of Cauca and NariĂąo, where coffee berry borer levels are close to 3.2 and 4.2% respectively.
Executive Summary FIRST SEMESTER HARVEST 2018
ESTIMATED NUMBER FOR
1ST SEMESTER CROP
LAST YEARâ€™S 2017 FIRST SEMESTER
5.7 to 5.9 MM of 60 kg bags from February to July 2018
6.47 MM of 60 kg/bags from February to July 2017
Executive Summary Despite an increse in rainfall, the first semester 2018 harvest is expected to be very similar, in terms of quality, to that of 2017. This increase in rainfall has been a blessling in disguise and has led to good development of coffee cherries, generating fewer defect and helping to control broca. The first semester harvest of 2018 is expected to start strongly in May and June, and start to slow down in the month of July.
Expectations by Department - Versus 2017 First Semester ANTIOQUIA: Biggest decrease in volumes (-28.1%) CAUCA*: Considerable decrease in volumes (-18%) COFFEE BELT: Decrease in volumes (-28.2%) HUILA*: Considerable increase in volumes (6.1%) NARIĂ‘O*: Biggest decrease in volumes (-21.8%) TOLIMA*: Considerable increase in volumes (-6%)
2ND SEMESTER HARVEST FIRST EXPECTATIONS
A possible delay and a decrease in volumes might occur due to heavy rains and delayed flowerings. We hope the weather dries up to increase productivity.
FIRST SEMESTER HARVEST 2018
The end of 2017 and beginning of 2018 were marked by unusual and heavy rains. This affected the harvest cycle of coffee trees, causing delays to the first semester harvest. The flowerings for the second semester cycle, which were expected in December - January didnâ€™t arrive until MarchMay. Also, due to heavy rains, when the flowers finnally arrived they did so unevenly and were not as abundant as previous years.
Average Daily Rainfall (mm) Main Crop
8 6 4 2 0 Jan Feb
Mar Apr May Junv Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Universe & Methodology Visits to more than 600 farms in the main departments that produce coffee during the first semester harvest. 80+ municipalities visited in these departments Covering 87%+ of the coffee growing regions in Colombia. The survey was conducted during the months of February and March 2018 at the beginning of the harvest
Universe & Methodology
YIELD ESTIMATION by fruit counting.
WEATHER PATTERNS & their possible impact.
CROP SURVEY AND ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY:
collected from farmers.
taking into account the production share of each department
REVISED COFFEE PRODUCING HECTARES Showing new zones and areas no longer in use
FACE TO FACE farmer survey
Survey Results REGION
ESTIMATED GREEN COFFEE BAGS 60kg 2017-2018
250 000 - 300 000
1 250 000 - 1 300 000
3 500 000 - 3 550 000
750 000 - 800 000*
5 750 000 - 5 950 000
Quindio, Caldas, Risaralda, Valle
Tolima, Huila, Cauca, NariÃ±o *Sourced by third parties
Harvest & Parchment Timings SEASONALITY
ANTIOQUIA CALDAS CAUCA HUILA* NARIÃ‘O* QUINDIO RISARALDA TOLIMA* VALLE DEL CAUCA COLOMBIA Beginnig of harvest <20% of harvest Peak harvesting 20% - 75% of harvest End of harvest >75% of harvest
*Second semester harvest will begin and overlap with end of first semester harvest
Quality Facts & Expectations 25%
About of the total coffee growing area
is cultivated with traditional varieties
of the hectares surveyed in
TOLIMA, HUILA CAUCA & NARIĂ‘0
are still growing traditional varieties.
the nacional average of trees affected by berry borer
Leaf rust levels at country level
Quality Facts & Expectations About 80% have optimum fertilization and phytosanitary processes to control roya.
90% of surveyed farmers Reported a delay of 4-6 weeks at the beginning of harvest due to heavy rains and low temperatures.
80% of farmers consider weather changes as their main concern regarding the coming crop.
50% of farmers reported an increased level of difficulties in delivering dry parchment to buying units due to land slides, floods, and road blocks.
Quality Facts & Expectations
Renovated areas are between 15% and 20%
Lack of labor continues to be a threat for most farmers
Farmers reported an increase in exotic varieties planted, as well as the replacement of Castillo for Caturra above 1500m.
However the inmigrant flow from Venezuela is starting to compensate this.
Rains during the harvest increase drying times For specialty coffee this can range from 8 to 15 days.
First Expectations for Second Semester
Production figures of green coffee in 2017 and projected figures for 2018.
1st SEM 5 800
2nd SEM* 7 800
November 2017 to January 2018 were unusually wet. January 2018 had the highest volume of rain experienced in the last 17 years. Because of this, normal flowering cycles moved from November January to March - April. This in turn will cause a delayed harvest. Commercial coffee farmers reported a decrease in the use of agro-inputs as the internal coffee prices have recently plummeted by 11.76%. The knock on effect being lower than expected production and less availablity of commercial coffee. *Based on flowering and first farm surveys
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