Page 1

We’re Not as Young as We Used to Be Observations and Projections of Demographics and Housing in Metro Boston

Tim Reardon Metropolitan Area Planning Council Allston-Brighton CDC Annual Meeting May 26, 2016


Housing demand: Population growth is only half the equation (or less)


Mary’s Household 2000 - 2040

2000, age 45

2010, age 55

2020, age 65

2040, age 85


Average Household Size, Metro Boston, 1970 - 2040 Average Number of People per Household

3.30

3.22

23% decline since 1970

3.20 3.10 3.00 2.90

2.84

2.80

10% drop projected 2010 - 2040

2.69

2.70 2.60

2.53

2.50

2.50 2.38

2.40

2.31

2.30

2.28

2.20

1970 www.mapc.org/projections

1980

1990 1990 - 2010

2000

2010

2020

Status Quo Projections

2030

2040

Source: Decennial Census, MAPC Population Projections 2014


Same number of residents form more households, need more housing units

2010 250 people =

2040 250 people =


Dozens of communities may see housing growth + population decline


Housing production is a

prerequisite to long-term economic growth in Massachusetts


In Labor Force

Baby Boomers comprise 49% of labor force

Not In Labor Force

350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000

2010

Baby Boomers

150,000 100,000 50,000

One million workers born before 1970 will retire by 2030 (39% of labor force) State is not producing or importing enough young workers to fill vacant positions Source: MAPC Population Projections 2014

350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000

2020, Status Quo

150,000

Baby Boomers

100,000 50,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000

2040, Status Quo Baby Boomers

-

15 - 20 - 25 - 30 - 35 - 40 - 45 - 50 - 55 - 60 - 65 - 70 - 75 - 80 - 85 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 plus Age


A Stronger Region is Possible Population in the Labor Force, Metro Boston, 2010 - 2040, Status Quo vs. Stronger Region

Net in-migration of Continued 10,000 per year outmigration = = +175,000 workers no by labor force 2040 growth (7% increase)

2,750,000

Status Quo Status Quo Stronger Region

2,690,000

2,700,000 2,643,000 2,650,000 2,616,000 2,600,000 2,515,500 2,550,000

2,526,000

2,543,000 2,500,000

2,509,000

2,450,000

2,400,000

2010

2020

2030

2040


Long-term economic growth requires 435,000 new units in Metro Boston, ~500,000 units statewide, by 2040 Total Net Housing Demand, by Type, Metro Boston, 2010 - 2040

450,000 400,000 350,000

178,000

Multi-Family -Rent

300,000 250,000

95,000 91,000

200,000 150,000

53,000 11,000

6,000

139,000

155,000

Status Quo

Stronger Region

100,000 50,000

Multi-Family -Own Single Family -Rent Single Family -Own

Source: MAPC Population Projections, 2014


Baby Boomers will supply more housing than they demand


Baby Boomers are occupying as many housing units as they ever will Baby Boomer (1946 - 1965) Housing Demand, Metro Boston, 2010 - 2040, Stronger Region Scenario 800,000

Housing Unit Demand

700,000 171,000

600,000 500,000 400,000

140,000

120,000

Multifamily Rent

166,000

170,000

Multifamily Own

132,000

95,000

117,000 130,000

300,000 200,000 318,000

383,000

352,000

73,000 282,000

100,000

165,000

-

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

Single Family Rent Single Family Own Source: 2000 Census , 2006 – 2010 American Community Survey, MAPC Population Projections 2014


The coming single-family “senior sell-off� Net Housing Unit Demand, 2010-2020

Net Housing Unit Demand by Cohort, Metro Boston, 2010-2020, Stronger Region 300,000

Multi-Family Rent

250,000 200,000

177,700

150,000 100,000 50,000

-

12,400 50,700

125,500

53,400

(68,600)

(50,000)

Multi-Family Own 12,900 (31,100) (5,000)

(100,000) (150,000) (200,000)

Born after 1985

(91,000)

Single Family Rent

(31,700) (41,000)

Single Family Own

Born 1966 to Born 1946 to Born 1945 and 1985 1965 before Age Cohort

Data Source: MAPC Population Projections 2014

Puts 130,000 units back on the market by 2020, supplies 72% of demand for younger households


Tastes Are Changing, Or Are They?


Multifamily Occupancy is Growing Change in Multifamily Occupancy Rates, 2000 to 2010, Metro Boston Change in Percent of Households in Multifamily Housing

8%

7.0%

7% 6% 5%

4.5% 3.8%

4% 3%

2.4%

2.5%

2%

0.8%

1% 0%

0.8%

0.7%

70-74

75 plus

0.2% 15-24

25-34

35-44

45-54 55-59 Age of Householder

60-64

65-69

Multifamily occupancy increased for all age groups Steepest increases among Millennials and Baby Boomers Source: 2006 – 2010 American Community Survey, 2000 Census


An Urban Resurgence is Underway Urban municipalities attracted/retained 30,000 additional residents as compared to the 1990s Net Migration by Age, 1990s and 2000s, Inner Core and Regional Urban Centers Net Migrants in/(out) in Previous Decade

100,000

1990 - 2000

80,000

2000 - 2010

60,000 40,000 20,000 0 -20,000 -40,000 -60,000 -80,000

04

5 - 10 - 15 - 20 - 25 - 30 - 35 - 40 - 45 - 50 - 55 - 60 - 65 - 70 - 75 - 80 - 85 9 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 plus Age at End of Decade

Source: U.S. Census, MassCHIP, MAPC Analysis


A New Paradigm of Housing Demand

Projected Housing Unit Demand, 2010 - 2030

Metro Boston will need 435,000 new units by 2040 Most housing demand will be in urban communities Two-thirds of demand will be for multifamily 120,000

Housing Unit Demand by Type and Tenure, 2010 - 2030, Stronger Region Scenario Metro Boston Community Types 108,800

100,000 80,000

55%

75,900

60,000

38%

40,000

21%

24%

20,000

21%

80,600 63,201

18%

23%

16%

18%

42%

60%

Regional Urban Centers

Maturing Suburbs

64%

-

Inner Core

Developing Suburbs

Multifamily Rent

Multifamily Own

Single Family Own


It’s not just a housing problem


25 years of wage polarization Occupational Group Change by Household Income Category; Metro Boston, 1990 to 2014 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Business Operations Specialists Architecture and Engineering Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Office and Administrative Support Healthcare Support Building and Grounds Maintenance Sales and Related Construction and Extraction Production Transportation and Material Moving Food Preparation and Serving Personal Care and Service Protective Service Legal Life, Physical, and Social Science Community and Social Services Computer and Mathematical Education, Training, and Library Management, Business, Science, and Arts Healthcare Practitioners and Technical

Decline in “core� middle income occupations Low-income growth, middle income decline Disproportionate low-income growth

Disproportionate high-income growth

-100,000-80,000 -60,000 -40,000 -20,000

Extremely Low-Income

Very Low-Income

Low-Income

0

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000

Lower Middle-Income

Upper Middle-Income

High-Income

Data Sources: U.S. Census Public Use Microdata Sample 1990 and 2010-14


The Incredible Shrinking Middle Class Working Households by Income Category Metro Boston, 1990 - 2014 160,000

140,000

Percent growth

[CELLRANGE]

Change in number of households

120,000

Extremely Low-Income Very Low-Income

100,000

Low-Income

80,000

Lower Middle-Income

60,000 40,000 20,000

Upper Middle-Income

[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]

High-Income

(20,000)

[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]

Middle-Income Working Households down 3%

Data Sources: U.S. Census Public Use Microdata Sample 1990 and 2010-14


Projected New Worker Households Over 800,000+ new workers needed by 2030 to fill vacancies left by retiring Baby Boomers. These workers will likely form 492,000 new working households.

Projected New Worker Households Metro Boston, 2015 - 2030 500,000 450,000 400,000

High-Income [CELLRANG E]

350,000

Almost one-third of new working households will be low income.

300,000

Upper Middle-Income

Lower Middle-Income

250,000

[CELLRANG E]

200,000

[CELLRANG E]

Low-Income

[CELLRANG E]

Very Low-Income

150,000

100,000 50,000 -

[CELLRANG E] [CELLRANG E]

Extremely Low-Income

Data Sources: U.S. Census Public Use Microdata Sample 1990 and 2010-14


Housing production is an economic imperative for the City and the Regions Boomer downsizing satisfies only a portion of demand created by younger households

Long-term trends will drive continued demand for urban & multifamily housing Sustainable solutions to the affordable housing crisis require economic policy interventions


Tim Reardon, Director of Data Services Metropolitan Area Planning Council treardon@mapc.org

www.mapc.org/projections www.housing.ma

Abcdc annual meeting 2016 tim reardon  
Abcdc annual meeting 2016 tim reardon  
Advertisement