129
The Nicholas Institute’s 2011 GHG Emissions and Nitrogen Use in US Agriculture Nicholas Institute’s recent scenarios report includes a baseline set of projection from 2005 to 2030. These emissions projections were derived using the FASOMGHG model. • As described in slide 114, FASOMGHG is a partial equilibrium economic model of the U.S. forest and agriculture sectors, with land use competition between them, and linkages to international trade which includes most major , p , g j GHG mitigation options in U.S. forestry and agriculture; accounts for changes in CO2 , CH4, and N2O from most activities; and tracks carbon sequestration and carbon losses over time. • FASOMGHG has been updated recently to account for current US biofuels policy (RFS2), and to account for a greater amount of conservation tillage in its baseline. Finally, the model now uses a more sophisticated and accurate method for determining soil N2O emissions consistent with the DAYCENT model which is used for the EPA inventories for determining soil N2O emissions, consistent with the DAYCENT model which is used for the EPA inventories.
CO2e emissions (Mt) EPA ‐ 2005 (FASOM) 500
EPA ‐ 2006 EPA 2006 (global (global projections) EPA ‐ 2008 Inventory
400
EPA ‐ 2008 trajectory EPA ‐ 2011 Inventory
300 EPA ‐ 2011 trajectory (1990 ‐ 2030) EPA ‐ 2011 trajectory (1995 ‐ 2030) EPA ‐ 2011 (global projections) ISU ‐ baseline (FAPRI)
200
100
NI ‐ baseline (FASOM)
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
0