Page 1

MONTHLY ECONOMIC

June 2014 issue


Executivesummary Growth TheThaiEconomycontractedinthefirst quarterof2014.Ontheexpenditureside, InvestmentandPrivateconsumptionwere affectedandcontributednegativelytothe overallgrowth.Ontheproductionside, ContractioninManufacturingand ConstructionhasdraggedtheoverallGDP growth InApril,Manufacturingproductiondropped again,whileAgricultureproductionincreased impressively.Ontheexpenditureside,Private consumptionimprovedfromlastmonthwhile PrivateInvestmentcontinuedtodecline.FDI increasedimpressivelybutBOInetapplication dropped. Exportgrew7.9%inTHBtermbutdecreased inUSDterm.Import,however,registereda negativegrowth,drivenbylower intermediategoodsimport.Touristarrivals dropped5%. Lookingforward,MonetarypoliciesareproͲ growth,withpolicyrateunchangedat2%. Governmentspendingwaslimiteddueto politicalsituation.

Confidenceinprivates BusinessesandIndust pessimistic.Consumer

Moredownwardrevis Theconsensusproject 2.7%for2014and4.4Ͳ

Employmentandwea InApril,unemploymen 0.88%,averylowrate majorandemergingec

Thailand’spercapitain 5,210in2012,ranked averageThaiisslightly averageChinesebutm richerthananaverage Incomedistributionis buttherehasbeenove thepasttwodecades, Bangkok.Povertyhead havedeclinedoverthe


sectorismixed. riesweremore rswerelesspessimistic.

Stability Headlineinflationincreasedto2.62%while Coreincreasedslightlyto1.75%inMay. ProducerPriceinflationdecreasedto1.2%.

ionsfor2014growth. tionisbetween2.0%Ͳ Ͳ4.8%for2015.

Bankingsystemisquitestable.Bank’scapital ratioincreasedandisstillhigh.Totalsystem’s NPLincreasedslightlyin1Q14.Liquidity tightenedslightlyasloanexpanded.

althdistribution ntrateincreasedto ecomparedtoother conomies.

Higherdeficitinthefirst4monthsof2014, comparedtothesameperiodin2013. Public debtaspercentageofGDPincreasedslightly sofarthisyearduemainlytodirect governmentdebt,butthecurrentlevelof 46%isnotyetdangerous.Majorityofthe publicdebtisdomesticbased.

ncomewasatUSD 102nd intheworld.An ypoorerthanan morethanthreetimes eIndian.Thailand’s amongtheworstinAsia erallimprovementover exceptforonlyin dcountandpovertyrate elastdecade.

BalanceofPaymentturnedpositiveinthefirst 4monthsof2014,thankstotradesurplus. Externaldebtincreasedslightlybutcapability torepayisnotaconcernasdebtserviceratio remainedlowandinternationalreservesisat healthylevel.THBappreciated0.8%inMay.

2

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

• TheThaiEconomycontractedinth Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,In contributednegativelytot Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Co theoverallGDPgrowth • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionimprovedfrom • ExportgrewinTHBterm,Importde • Monetaryeasingwithpolicyrateo • Businessesweremorepessimisticw • Theconsensusprojectionisbetwee

Income distribution

• InApril,unemploymentrateincrea countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

Stability

• Headlineinflationincreasedto2.6 Priceinflationdecreasedto1.2%. • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban increasedslightlyin1Q14.Liquidity • Higherdeficitinthefirst4months increasingbutnottooworryingjus • BalanceofPaymentturnedpositive Externaldebthasbeenincreasingb




efirstquarterof2014 nvestmentandPrivateconsumptionwereaffectedand heoverallgrowth ontractioninManufacturingandConstructionhasdragged

esitsdeclineinto2014 mlastmonthwhilePrivateInvestmentcontinuedtodecline ecreased.Touristarrivaldropped. ndownwardtrendwhileFiscalspendingislimited whileconsumerswerelesspessimistic en2.0%Ͳ2.7%for2014and4.4Ͳ4.8%for2015.

asedto0.9%,stillaverylowratecomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

62%whileCoreincreasedslightlyto1.75%inMay.Producer

nk’scapitalratioincreasedandisstillhigh.Totalsystem’sNPL ytightenedslightlyasloanexpanded. of2014,comparedtothesameperiodin2013.Publicdebtis styet. einthefirst4monthsof2014,thankstotradesurplus. butstillnotdangerous.THBappreciatedinMay.

3


Economiccontractioninthefirst

Chart1.05– HistoricalRealGDPgrowthrate Annualgrowth,percent

7.1% 6.3% 5.3%

CAGR* 2002Ͳ2013 =4.1%

4.6%

5.1% 5.0%

2.5%

-2.3

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200

Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis


quarterof2014

7.8% 6.5%

2.9%

0.1% -0.6%

3%

09 2010 2011 2012 2013

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14

4 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


ContractioninManufacturingand overallGDPgrowththemostin1 Chart1.06a– Realgrowthbysector,1Q14 YearͲonͲYearpercentagechange GDP

-0.6

Financial

6.6

PublicAdmin

6.6

Education

5.7

Transport

3.7

Health&Social

2.2

Agriculture

1.3

Othersocial

1.3

RealEstate

-0.3

Trading

-0.5

Mining

-1.2

Fishing

-2.4

PrivateHH

-2.5

Manufacture

-2.7

Utilities

-3.1

Hotel&Res

-3.1

Construction

-12.4

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis


dConstructionhasdraggedthe Q14 Chart1.06b– Sectoralcontributions,1Q14 ContributionstototalRealGDPgrowth GDP

-0.6

Transport

0.4

Financial

0.3

PublicAdmin

0.2

Education

0.1

Agriculture

0.1

Othersocial

0.0

Health&Social

0.0

PrivateHH

0.0

RealEstate

0.0

Mining

0.0

Fishing

0.0

Trading

-0.1

Utilities

-0.1

Hotel&Res

-0.1

Construction Manufacture

-0.3 -1.0

5 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


InvestmentandPrivateconsumpt contributednegativelytotheove

Chart1.08a– Realgrowthbyexpenditure,1Q YearͲonͲYearpercentagechange M(services)

11.2

G

2.9

X(goods)

0.8

GDP

-0.6

C

-3.0

X(services)

-4.2

I(capital)

-9.8

M(goods) I

-12.0 -17.4

Note: (*) C = Private consumption, I = Investment which includes I (capital) = Capital fo G = Government consumption, X = Export of goods and services, M = Import

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis


tionwereaffectedand erallgrowthin1Q14

Q14 Chart1.08b– ExpenditureContributions,1Q14

2

ContributionstototalRealGDPgrowth GDP

-0.6

M(goods)

5.9

X(goods)

0.4

Discrpncy

0.3

G

0.3

X(services)

-0.8

M(services)

-1.0

C

-1.5

I(Inventory)

-2.1

I(capital)

-2.1

ormation and I (inventory) = Change in inventory t of goods and services

6 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

• TheThaiEconomycontractedinth Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,In contributednegativelytot Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Co theoverallGDPgrowth • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionimprovedfrom • ExportgrewinTHBterm,Importde • Monetaryeasingwithpolicyrateo • Businessesweremorepessimisticw • Theconsensusprojectionisbetwee

Income distribution

• InApril,unemploymentrateincrea countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

Stability

• Headlineinflationincreasedto2.6 Priceinflationdecreasedto1.2%. • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban increasedslightlyin1Q14.Liquidity • Higherdeficitinthefirst4months increasingbutnottooworryingjus • BalanceofPaymentturnedpositive Externaldebthasbeenincreasingb




efirstquarterof2014 nvestmentandPrivateconsumptionwereaffectedand heoverallgrowth ontractioninManufacturingandConstructionhasdragged

esitsdeclineinto2014 mlastmonthwhilePrivateInvestmentcontinuedtodecline ecreased.Touristarrivaldropped. ndownwardtrendwhileFiscalspendingislimited whileconsumerswerelesspessimistic en2.0%Ͳ2.7%for2014and4.4Ͳ4.8%for2015.

asedto0.9%,stillaverylowratecomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

62%whileCoreincreasedslightlyto1.75%inMay.Producer

nk’scapitalratioincreasedandisstillhigh.Totalsystem’sNPL ytightenedslightlyasloanexpanded. of2014,comparedtothesameperiodin2013.Publicdebtis styet. einthefirst4monthsof2014,thankstotradesurplus. butstillnotdangerous.THBappreciatedinMay.

7


Manufacturingproductiondropp

Chart1.11– ManufacturingProductionIndex (2000=100) CAGR

2.7%

194.2 174.8

182.6

161.1

170.0

177.7

152.1 138.6

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics


edagaininApril

MonthlyAverage 250.0

200.0

2013

181.6

175.8

150.0

100.0

2014

MͲoͲM Ͳ12.3% YͲoͲY Ͳ3.9%

50.0

0.0

2012 2013

J F M A M J J A S O N D

8 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Mostsectorshadtheirproduction lastmonth

Chart1.12a– YͲonͲYchangeinMPIbysector April2014,percent Precisioninstru

36.0

Tobacco

16.7

Metalproducts

8.0

Electronic

8.0

Apparel

6.4

Woodproducts

6.1

BasicMat

3.6

Furniture

3.5

Paper

2.9

Electrical

2.8

Chemical

1.8

Leather

1.3

Textiles

-0.3

Rubber&Plastic

-0.4

Machineries

-0.5

Officeautomate

-0.9

Petroleum

-1.7

Mineral

-4.3

Food&Bev

-6.9

TransportEquip Vehicles

-11.8 -24.7

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis


ndecreasedsubstantiallyfrom

Chart1.12b– MͲonͲMchangeinMPIbysector April2014,percent -1.5 3.5 -18.9 0.5 -18.9 -16.1 -13.9 1.0 -4.2 -8.1 -4.9 -10.0 -12.4 -18.4 -5.8 -3.9 4.8 -15.0 -26.8 -13.8 -27.5

9 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


AbigdropinCapacityutilization

Chart1.13a– OverallCapacityUtilizationRate Percent 100% 90% 80% 70% 56.6%

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics


rateinApril

Chart1.13b– Capacityutilizationratebysector April2014,percent Chemical Petroleum Electrical Machineries Precisioninstru Paper Electronic Mineral Vehicles TransportEquip Rubber&Plastic Metalproducts Officeautomate Tobacco BasicMat Food&Bev Textiles Apparel Leather Furniture Woodproducts

82% 75% 74% 74% 70% 69% 68% 67% 62% 61% 56% 55% 53% 48% 47% 46% 39% 34% 29% 26% 22%

10 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailand’sMPIdroppedthemost enjoyedhighestgrowth

Chart1.14– ManufacturingProductionIndex Latest,percentchangeonyearago ChinaͲApr JapanͲMar VietnamͲMay IndonesiaͲMar TaiwanͲApr SingaporeͲApr MalaysiaͲMar USͲApr AustraliaͲQ4 SouthKoreaͲMar RussiaͲApr HongKongͲQ4 EuroAreaͲApr

-0.1

IndiaͲMar

-0.5

BrazilͲMar

-1.0

PhilippinesͲMar

-1.1

PakistanͲMar ThailandͲApr Source: The Economist

-2.6 -3.9


tfromayearago,whileChina

x 8.7 7.4 5.9 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.4 3.5 2.8 2.7 2.5 0.5

11 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Agricultureproductiongrewheal

Chart1.10– Agricultureproductionindex (2005=100)

CAGR

3.2% 122.5 105.9

112.8 112.0 109.4 111.2

100.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture a


thilyfromayearago

MonthlyAverage 250.0

128.0 128.8

YͲoͲY 5.6%

200.0

MͲoͲM Ͳ3.3% 150.0

2014 2013 100.0

50.0

0.0

2012 2013

J F M A M J J A S O N D

12 nd Cooperatives

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

• TheThaiEconomycontractedinth Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,In contributednegativelytot Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Co theoverallGDPgrowth • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionimprovedfrom • ExportgrewinTHBterm,Importde • Monetaryeasingwithpolicyrateo • Businessesweremorepessimisticw • Theconsensusprojectionisbetwee

Income distribution

• InApril,unemploymentrateincrea countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

Stability

• Headlineinflationincreasedto2.6 Priceinflationdecreasedto1.2%. • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban increasedslightlyin1Q14.Liquidity • Higherdeficitinthefirst4months increasingbutnottooworryingjus • BalanceofPaymentturnedpositive Externaldebthasbeenincreasingb




efirstquarterof2014 nvestmentandPrivateconsumptionwereaffectedand heoverallgrowth ontractioninManufacturingandConstructionhasdragged

esitsdeclineinto2014 mlastmonthwhilePrivateInvestmentcontinuedtodecline ecreased.Touristarrivaldropped. ndownwardtrendwhileFiscalspendingislimited whileconsumerswerelesspessimistic en2.0%Ͳ2.7%for2014and4.4Ͳ4.8%for2015.

asedto0.9%,stillaverylowratecomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

62%whileCoreincreasedslightlyto1.75%inMay.Producer

nk’scapitalratioincreasedandisstillhigh.Totalsystem’sNPL ytightenedslightlyasloanexpanded. of2014,comparedtothesameperiodin2013.Publicdebtis styet. einthefirst4monthsof2014,thankstotradesurplus. butstillnotdangerous.THBappreciatedinMay.

13


Privateconsumptionbouncedfro year’slevel

Chart1.15– CompositePrivateConsumptionI (2000=100) CAGR

2.5%

117.8

126.1 121.9 124.2

130.6

134.2

139.2

127.2

04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 1

Note:(*)seasonallyadjusted Source: Bank of Thailand


omlastmonthbutstilllaggedlast

Index*

147.0 147.5

12-Avg 13-Avg

MonthlyAverage 150.0

149.0

2013

148.0

147.0

2014 146.0

145.0

144.0

MͲoͲM 0.2% YͲoͲY Ͳ0.8%

143.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

14 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Vehicleconsumptionexpenditure farthisyear Chart1.16a– YͲonͲYchange First4monthsof2014vs 2013,percent NGV(kg.)* LPG(litre)*

1

Diesel(litre)

0

Benzene&Gasohol(litre)

0

RealVAT(2000prices,baht)

-0.6

HHelectricity(kilowatt/hour)

-4.6

Realimportofconsumergoods(2000 prices,US$)

-6.5

Motocycle(Unit) CommercialCar(Unit) PassengerCar(Unit) -50.9 Note:(*)figuresare1Ͳmonthdelayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

-22.0 -35.5


eswerethebiggestdeclinersso

Chart1.16b– MͲonͲMchange AprvsMar2014,percent 5.3

3.3 0.6

1.4

1.3

0.2

0.2

-2.3 -0.7 1.5 3.3 -3.3 -0.2 9.4

15 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


PrivateInvestmentondecline

Chart1.17– PrivateInvestmentIndex (2000=100)

CAGR

4.9%

209.1 172.4 175.2 175.7 156.0

193.5

183.9 161.2

04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 1

Source: Bank of Thailand


MonthlyAverage 260.0 255.0

MͲoͲM Ͳ0.2%

250.0

240.8 240.1

12-Avg 13-Avg

245.0

2013

YͲoͲY Ͳ4.7%

240.0 235.0 230.0

2014 225.0 220.0 215.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

16 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Commercialcarsalestookthebig

Chart1.18a– YͲonͲYchange First4monthof2014vs 2013,percent

DomesticCementsales(ton)

2.1

DomesticMachinerysales* (2000prices,Baht)

1.1

ConstructionAreapermitted (sqm)

ImportofCapitalGoods (2000prices,Baht)

Domesticcommercialcar -32.7 sales(unit)

Note:(*)figuresare1Ͳmonthdelayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

0.0

-9.8


ggesthitsofarthisyear

Chart1.18b– MͲonͲMchange AprvsMar2014,percent

1.0

-0.7

0.8

-0.2

-3.1

17 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


StronggrowthinFDIsofarin201

Chart5.14– ForeignDirectInvestment MillionUSD

1 11,331 10,699 9,112 8,547

4,853 3,861

07FY

08FY

(*) Preliminary figures

Source: BOT

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY


14

MonthlycumulativeFDI* 14,000

12,995

13FY

12,000

2013 10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2014 2,000

0

J

F M A M J

J

A S O N D

18 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


BOI’snetapplicationdecreased2 2014

Chart5.15– BOInetapplicationofforeigndi BillionBaht 648

396 351

236

09FY

10FY

11FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

Source: Board of Investment

12FY


2%duringthefirst4monthsof

irectinvestment*

525

13FY

224

220

2013/4M

2014/4M

19 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


FDIfromJapan,thebiggestsourc years

Chart5.16– BOInetapplicationofFDI*break Percentoftotal

Others

23%

27%

USA ANIEs ASEAN

3% 6% 6%

2% 7%

Europe

17%

Japan

44%

8%

10FY Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%) (**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea

Source: Board of Investment; CTE analysis

7%

49%

11FY


ce,hasbeendeclininginrecent

kdownbycountrygroup

11% 4% 10% 7% 10%

11% 21% 2% 6%

19%

10%

8% 2%

7%

29%

58%

54% 31%

12FY

13FY

2014/4M 20 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


MostofPropertyindicatorshave

Chart1.19a– YͲonͲYchange First3monthsof2014vs 2013,percent

Condounitregistered

15

Constr.Areainmunicipal

4.4

Newhousingunit

Valueoflandtransaction

2.4

-10.8

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


increasedsofarin2014

5.1

Chart1.19b– MͲonͲMchange MarvsFeb2014,percent

-33.9

3.0

-10.3

26.9

21 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

• TheThaiEconomycontractedinth Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,In contributednegativelytot Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Co theoverallGDPgrowth • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionimprovedfrom • ExportgrewinTHBterm,Importde • Monetaryeasingwithpolicyrateo • Businessesweremorepessimisticw • Theconsensusprojectionisbetwee

Income distribution

• InApril,unemploymentrateincrea countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

Stability

• Headlineinflationincreasedto2.6 Priceinflationdecreasedto1.2%. • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban increasedslightlyin1Q14.Liquidity • Higherdeficitinthefirst4months increasingbutnottooworryingjus • BalanceofPaymentturnedpositive Externaldebthasbeenincreasingb




efirstquarterof2014 nvestmentandPrivateconsumptionwereaffectedand heoverallgrowth ontractioninManufacturingandConstructionhasdragged

esitsdeclineinto2014 mlastmonthwhilePrivateInvestmentcontinuedtodecline ecreased.Touristarrivaldropped. ndownwardtrendwhileFiscalspendingislimited whileconsumerswerelesspessimistic en2.0%Ͳ2.7%for2014and4.4Ͳ4.8%for2015.

asedto0.9%,stillaverylowratecomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

62%whileCoreincreasedslightlyto1.75%inMay.Producer

nk’scapitalratioincreasedandisstillhigh.Totalsystem’sNPL ytightenedslightlyasloanexpanded. of2014,comparedtothesameperiodin2013.Publicdebtis styet. einthefirst4monthsof2014,thankstotradesurplus. butstillnotdangerous.THBappreciatedinMay.

22


Improvementintradebalanceis

Chart5.03a– Tradebalance*inTHB First4monthsof2014vs 2013,BillionBaht 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500

2

2

1,000 500 0 +7.9%

-7.8%

-500 -1,000

Export

–

Import

=

Trade balance

Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjus (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


moreofthecaseofweakerTHB

Chart5.03b– Tradebalance*inUSD First4monthsof2014vs 2013,BillionUSD 100

80

60

2013

2014 40

20

0 -15.2%

-1.0% -20

Export

stments t and exchange rate conversion t and exchange rate conversion

Import

=

Trade balance

23 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Exportgrew7.9%inthefirst4mo machineryandautomotive

Chart5.05a– YTDannualchangeinExportin First4monthsof2014vs thoseof2013,percent Totalexport ReͲexports Otherexport Machinery Othermanufacturing Electrical PetroͲchemical Opticalinstru Jewellery Automotive Furniture Apparels Electronics Footware Agriculture Forestry Toiletries Fishery Chemicals Agroproducts Petroleum -6.7 Aircrafts -9.5 Photoinstru -11.1 Metal -20.7 Mining-32.8

7.9 >1,000.0 >100.0 21.3 19.3 17.0 16.7 13.2 13.2 11.5 8.7 8.2 7.3 6.1 5.7 5.4 4.6 2.4 2.0 0.2

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


onthsof2014,thanksmainlyto Baht Chart5.05b– Sectoralcontributions Contributionstototalexportgrowth Totalexport Machinery Automotive Otherexport Electronics Electrical PetroͲchemical Othermanufacturing Agriculture Jewellery Apparels Opticalinstru ReͲexports Chemicals Toiletries Furniture Forestry Agroproducts Fishery Footware Photoinstru Aircrafts Mining Petroleum Metal

7.9 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -1.2

24 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Positivegrowthinallexportmark

Chart5.07a– Exportbycountry PercentoftotalexportinTHBterm ᪛ 5.2

᪛ 6.1

᪛ 6.7

᪛ 7.1

MiddleEast

5.7

5.0

4.7

5.1

5.1

EU

11.9

11.3

10.9

9.5

9.8

Japan

10.3

10.5

10.7

10.2

9.7

11.7

11.1

11.4

11.5

NAFTA

12.2

17.4

18.1

16.7

18.4

18.1

EastAsia exͲJapan

21.0

21.0

21.2

20.1

20.4

ASEAN

21.3

23.0

24.3

24.6

25.9

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

100% =

Restof theworld

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

᪛ 6.9 (Trilli


ketssofarthisyear

ion)

Chart5.07b– ChangeinExport InTHBterm,First 4 monthsof2014vs thoseof2013

Middle East

16.4%

EU

14.7%

Restofthe world

9.5%

Japan

9.5%

NAFTA EastAsiaex Japan ASEAN

9.1%

4.6%

4.0%

25 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Importhasdecreased8%sofarin decreaseinOthers

Chart5.09a– YTDannualchangeinImportin First4monthsof2014vs thoseof2013,percent

Totalimport

-7.8

IntermediateͲFuel

7.3

Consumergoods

IntermediateͲNonfuel

Capitalgoods

Others -54.1

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

2.6

-0.6

-4.2


n2014,duemainlytothe

nBaht Chart5.09b– Sectoralcontributions Contributionstototalimportgrowth

Totalimport

-7.8

IntermediateͲFuel

1.4

Consumergoods

0.2

IntermediateͲNonfuel

-0.2

Capitalgoods

Others

-1.0

-8.3

26 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Touristarrivalsdropped5%inthe comparedtothesameperiodlast Chart5.18– InternationalTouristArrivals Millionvisits

CAGR

10.6%

19.2 15.9 14.5 10.8

11.7

14.1

11.5

10.0

04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 11FY

Source: Department of Tourism


efirst4monthsofthisyear tyear

Monthlycumulative 30.0

26.7 25.0

22.4

Y 12FY 13FY

2013 20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

2014 0.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

27 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


LaosandRussiawerethetwohig sofarthisyear Chart5.19a InternationalTouristArrivals bycountryofnationality Percentoftotal Restof world Americas

Europe

East Asia

15.3 6.0

28.7

15.6 5.3

27.9

14.7

13.8

5.0

4.8

26.5

25.3

50.0

51.2

53.8

56.0

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis

11.8 4.4

23.6

60.2

13FY


ghestgrowingmarketfortourists

Chart5.19b 10HighestChangeinInternationalTouristArrivals bycountryofnationality First4monthof2014vs 2013,Thousands Laos

128.8

Russia

90.3

France

20.2

UnitedKingdom

18.6

Finland Italy

12.1 9.4

Switzerland

5.8

Brazil

5.1

S.Africa

5.1

Spain

4.5

28 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

• TheThaiEconomycontractedinth Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,In contributednegativelytot Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Co theoverallGDPgrowth • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionimprovedfrom • ExportgrewinTHBterm,Importde • Monetaryeasingwithpolicyrateo • Businessesweremorepessimisticw • Theconsensusprojectionisbetwee

Income distribution

• InApril,unemploymentrateincrea countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

Stability

• Headlineinflationincreasedto2.6 Priceinflationdecreasedto1.2%. • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban increasedslightlyin1Q14.Liquidity • Higherdeficitinthefirst4months increasingbutnottooworryingjus • BalanceofPaymentturnedpositive Externaldebthasbeenincreasingb




efirstquarterof2014 nvestmentandPrivateconsumptionwereaffectedand heoverallgrowth ontractioninManufacturingandConstructionhasdragged

esitsdeclineinto2014 mlastmonthwhilePrivateInvestmentcontinuedtodecline ecreased.Touristarrivaldropped. ndownwardtrendwhileFiscalspendingislimited whileconsumerswerelesspessimistic en2.0%Ͳ2.7%for2014and4.4Ͳ4.8%for2015.

asedto0.9%,stillaverylowratecomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

62%whileCoreincreasedslightlyto1.75%inMay.Producer

nk’scapitalratioincreasedandisstillhigh.Totalsystem’sNPL ytightenedslightlyasloanexpanded. of2014,comparedtothesameperiodin2013.Publicdebtis styet. einthefirst4monthsof2014,thankstotradesurplus. butstillnotdangerous.THBappreciatedinMay.

29


Nochangeinpolicyinterestratei

Chart3.01a– BOT’spolicyrate

Jun-13

2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% 1.90% 1.80% May-14

Chart3.01c– Savingdepositrate* 10.00% 7.50% 5.00% Max

2.50%

Min Jun-13

0.00% May-14

Note:(*)AllCommercialBanksregisteredinThailand,excludingforeignbra

Source: Bank of Thailand


inMay

Chart3.01b– BIBORovernightrate 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% 1.90% 1.80% May-14

Jun-13

Chart3.01d– CommercialbankMLR* Max

10.00% 7.50%

Min 5.00% 2.50%

Jun-13

anches

0.00% May-14

30 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


4%decreaseinfiscalexpenditure

Chart – Monthly cumulative Fiscal expenditure Billion Baht 3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

2014

0

J

F

M

Source:BankofThailand;CTEanalysis

A

M

J


einthefirst4monthsof2014

2013

J

A

S

O

N

D

31

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

• TheThaiEconomycontractedinth Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,In contributednegativelytot Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Co theoverallGDPgrowth • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionimprovedfrom • ExportgrewinTHBterm,Importde • Monetaryeasingwithpolicyrateo • Businessesweremorepessimisticw • Theconsensusprojectionisbetwee

Income distribution

• InApril,unemploymentrateincrea countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

Stability

• Headlineinflationincreasedto2.6 Priceinflationdecreasedto1.2%. • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban increasedslightlyin1Q14.Liquidity • Higherdeficitinthefirst4months increasingbutnottooworryingjus • BalanceofPaymentturnedpositive Externaldebthasbeenincreasingb




efirstquarterof2014 nvestmentandPrivateconsumptionwereaffectedand heoverallgrowth ontractioninManufacturingandConstructionhasdragged

esitsdeclineinto2014 mlastmonthwhilePrivateInvestmentcontinuedtodecline ecreased.Touristarrivaldropped. ndownwardtrendwhileFiscalspendingislimited whileconsumerswerelesspessimistic en2.0%Ͳ2.7%for2014and4.4Ͳ4.8%for2015.

asedto0.9%,stillaverylowratecomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

62%whileCoreincreasedslightlyto1.75%inMay.Producer

nk’scapitalratioincreasedandisstillhigh.Totalsystem’sNPL ytightenedslightlyasloanexpanded. of2014,comparedtothesameperiodin2013.Publicdebtis styet. einthefirst4monthsof2014,thankstotradesurplus. butstillnotdangerous.THBappreciatedinMay.

32


Worseningbusinessconfidence

Chart1.21a– BusinessSentimentIndex* 100

Better

50

46.9

45.0

45.4

46.5

49.4 44.3

Worse

0 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14

Note:(*)Belowistheinterpretationoftheindex: Index=50indicatesthatbusinesssentimentremainsstable Index>50indicatesthatbusinesssentimenthasimproved Index<50indicatesthatbusinesssentimenthasworsened Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries


Chart1.21bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; ThaiIndustriesSentimentIndex** 200

Better

100

90.3

88.3

86.9

85.7

84.7

84.0

Worse

0 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14

Note:(*)Belowistheinterpretationoftheindex: Index=100indicatesthatindustriessentimentremainsstable Index>100indicatesthatindustriessentimenthasimproved Index<100indicatesthatindustriessentimenthasworsened

33 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Improvingconsumerconfidence

Chart1.20aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; ConsumerConfidenceIndex Overall

100

O

100

Better

Better

50

50 Worse

Worse

0

0 Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

Oct-13

Dec-1

Note:(*)Theindexrangesfrom0to100 50meansconsumerconfidenceisequaltothoseofthepriormo Over50meansconsumerconfidenceisbetterthanthoseofthe Under50meansconsumerconfidenceisworsethanthoseofth Source: Ministry of Commerce


Onjob

Onfutureincome

100

Better 50 Worse

0 3

Feb-14

onth epriormonth hepriormonth

Apr-14

Oct-13

Dec-13

Feb-14

Apr-14

34 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

• TheThaiEconomycontractedinth Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,In contributednegativelytot Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Co theoverallGDPgrowth • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionimprovedfrom • ExportgrewinTHBterm,Importde • Monetaryeasingwithpolicyrateo • Businessesweremorepessimisticw • Theconsensusprojectionisbetwee

Income distribution

• InApril,unemploymentrateincrea countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

Stability

• Headlineinflationincreasedto2.6 Priceinflationdecreasedto1.2%. • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban increasedslightlyin1Q14.Liquidity • Higherdeficitinthefirst4months increasingbutnottooworryingjus • BalanceofPaymentturnedpositive Externaldebthasbeenincreasingb




efirstquarterof2014 nvestmentandPrivateconsumptionwereaffectedand heoverallgrowth ontractioninManufacturingandConstructionhasdragged

esitsdeclineinto2014 mlastmonthwhilePrivateInvestmentcontinuedtodecline ecreased.Touristarrivaldropped. ndownwardtrendwhileFiscalspendingislimited whileconsumerswerelesspessimistic en2.0%Ͳ2.7%for2014and4.4Ͳ4.8%for2015.

asedto0.9%,stillaverylowratecomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

62%whileCoreincreasedslightlyto1.75%inMay.Producer

nk’scapitalratioincreasedandisstillhigh.Totalsystem’sNPL ytightenedslightlyasloanexpanded. of2014,comparedtothesameperiodin2013.Publicdebtis styet. einthefirst4monthsof2014,thankstotradesurplus. butstillnotdangerous.THBappreciatedinMay.

35


NESDBreviseddownitsprojectio

Chart1.03aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; RealGDPgrowthprojections For2014,Annualpercentagechange 6.00 5.50

BOT

5.00 4.50

FPO

4.00

NESDB 3.50 3.00 The Economist poll

2.50 2.00 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14

Forecast as of, month ending

Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Econo


onfor2014growthsubstantially

omist

Chart1.03bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; RealGDPgrowthprojections For2015,Annualpercentagechange 6.00 5.50

BOT

5.00 4.50

The Economist poll

4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00

Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14

Forecast as of, month ending 36 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;sgrowthprojectionsare emergingeconomies

Chart1.04aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; RealGDPgrowthprojections 2014,Annual%change,asofMay31st 2014 China Philippines Vietnam India Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Pakistan SouthKorea HongKong

7.3 6.8 6.1 6.0 5.4 5.1 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.7

Taiwan Australia US Thailand Brazil Japan EuroArea Russia

Source: The Economist

2.6 2.5 1.8 1.2 1.2 0.5


equitelowcomparedtoother

Chart1.04bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; RealGDPgrowthprojections 2015,Annual%change,asofMay31st 2014 7.0 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.2 5.5 4.4 3.7 4.0 2.4 3.2 2.8 3.0 4.4 2.1 1.3 1.5 1.3 37 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

• TheThaiEconomycontractedinth Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,In contributednegativelytot Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Co theoverallGDPgrowth • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionimprovedfrom • ExportgrewinTHBterm,Importde • Monetaryeasingwithpolicyrateo • Businessesweremorepessimisticw • Theconsensusprojectionisbetwee

Income distribution

• InApril,unemploymentrateincrea countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

Stability

• Headlineinflationincreasedto2.6 Priceinflationdecreasedto1.2%. • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban increasedslightlyin1Q14.Liquidity • Higherdeficitinthefirst4months increasingbutnottooworryingjus • BalanceofPaymentturnedpositive Externaldebthasbeenincreasingb




efirstquarterof2014 nvestmentandPrivateconsumptionwereaffectedand heoverallgrowth ontractioninManufacturingandConstructionhasdragged

esitsdeclineinto2014 mlastmonthwhilePrivateInvestmentcontinuedtodecline ecreased.Touristarrivaldropped. ndownwardtrendwhileFiscalspendingislimited whileconsumerswerelesspessimistic en2.0%Ͳ2.7%for2014and4.4Ͳ4.8%for2015.

asedto0.9%,stillaverylowratecomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

62%whileCoreincreasedslightlyto1.75%inMay.Producer

nk’scapitalratioincreasedandisstillhigh.Totalsystem’sNPL ytightenedslightlyasloanexpanded. of2014,comparedtothesameperiodin2013.Publicdebtis styet. einthefirst4monthsof2014,thankstotradesurplus. butstillnotdangerous.THBappreciatedinMay.

38


Unemploymentrateincreasedsli

Chart2.08â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Unemploymentrate Percent

2.07 1.83

1.51

1.49 1.38

1.38

1.04

0.68

04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 11-Avg 1

Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand


ghtlyto0.9%inApril

MonthlyAverage 1.00

2014 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60

2013

0.50 0.40 0.30

0.66

0.72

12-Avg 13-Avg

0.20 0.10 0.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

39 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailand’sunemploymentrateis leadingeconomies Chart2.09– Unemploymentrate Latest,percent ThailandͲApr SingaporeͲQ1

0.9 2.1

MalaysiaͲMar

3.0

HongKongͲApr

3.1

VietnamͲ2013

3.6

JapanͲMar

3.6

SouthKoreaͲApr

3.9

TaiwanͲApr

4.0

ChinaͲQ1

4.1

BrazilͲApr RussiaͲApr IndonesiaͲQ1 AustraliaͲApr PakistanͲ2013 USͲApr PhilippinesͲQ1 IndiaͲ2012 EuroAreaͲMar Source: The Economist


lowestcomparingtoother

4.9 5.3 5.7 5.8 6.2 6.3 7.5 9.9 11.8

40 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

• TheThaiEconomycontractedinth Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,In contributednegativelytot Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Co theoverallGDPgrowth • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionimprovedfrom • ExportgrewinTHBterm,Importde • Monetaryeasingwithpolicyrateo • Businessesweremorepessimisticw • Theconsensusprojectionisbetwee

Income distribution

• InApril,unemploymentrateincrea countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

Stability

• Headlineinflationincreasedto2.6 Priceinflationdecreasedto1.2%. • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban increasedslightlyin1Q14.Liquidity • Higherdeficitinthefirst4months increasingbutnottooworryingjus • BalanceofPaymentturnedpositive Externaldebthasbeenincreasingb




efirstquarterof2014 nvestmentandPrivateconsumptionwereaffectedand heoverallgrowth ontractioninManufacturingandConstructionhasdragged

esitsdeclineinto2014 mlastmonthwhilePrivateInvestmentcontinuedtodecline ecreased.Touristarrivaldropped. ndownwardtrendwhileFiscalspendingislimited whileconsumerswerelesspessimistic en2.0%Ͳ2.7%for2014and4.4Ͳ4.8%for2015.

asedto0.9%,stillaverylowratecomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

62%whileCoreincreasedslightlyto1.75%inMay.Producer

nk’scapitalratioincreasedandisstillhigh.Totalsystem’sNPL ytightenedslightlyasloanexpanded. of2014,comparedtothesameperiodin2013.Publicdebtis styet. einthefirst4monthsof2014,thankstotradesurplus. butstillnotdangerous.THBappreciatedinMay.

41


Overallimprovementinincomed foronlyinBangkok Chart2.01â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;sGINIcoefficient 0.55

Overall 0.50

South

0.45

0.40

0.35

0.30

'88

'90

'92

'94

'96

'98

Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB


distributioninThailand,except

NorthEast North Central Bangkok

'00

'02

'04

'06

'07

'09

'11

of income.

the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.

42

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Slightimprovementofincomedis topandthebottom20% Chart2.02â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Quintilebyincome Percentoftotalincome

Top20% Bottom20%

11.9

13.3

14.9

14.1

13.5

Top20%

54.4

57.0

59.0

57.2

56.5

Second20%

20.6

19.5

18.9

19.7

19.9

Third20%

12.4

11.7

11.1

11.7

11.8

Forth20%

8.1

7.5

7.4

7.6

Bottom20%

4.6

4.3

7.1 4.0

4.1

4.2

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

5

1


stributionwhencomparedthe

13.1

14.6

13.4

12.2

14.4

12.8

11.8

11.1

56.1

57.5

56.0

54.7

56.0

54.6

54.1

54.2

19.8

19.8

20.1

20.3

20.2

20.5

20.4

19.5

12.0

11.5

12.1

12.5

12.2

12.6

12.7

12.8

7.8

7.7

8.0

7.7

8.0

8.3

8.6

4.3

7.3 4.0

4.2

4.5

3.9

4.3

4.6

4.9

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2007

2009

2011 43

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


DatafromWorldBanksuggeststh ThailandisnotasbadasinMalay Chart2.03â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Incomeequalityintheworld

Ratiooftheshareofnationalincomegoingtotherichest20% Latest,selectedcountries Honduras Bolivia Comoros SouthAfrica Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles CentralAfricanRepublic Paraguay Panama Zambia CostaRica ElSalvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela,RB Mexico Malaysia DominicanRepublic

2 26. 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3

Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis


hatincomeequalityproblemin ysiaorChina

%totheshareofthepoorest20%

29.7 27.8 .7

Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey RussianFederation Thailand Iran,IslamicRep. SriLanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia LaoPDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt,ArabRep. Pakistan Afghanistan SlovakRepublic

11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6

44

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

• TheThaiEconomycontractedinth Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,In contributednegativelytot Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Co theoverallGDPgrowth • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionimprovedfrom • ExportgrewinTHBterm,Importde • Monetaryeasingwithpolicyrateo • Businessesweremorepessimisticw • Theconsensusprojectionisbetwee

Income distribution

• InApril,unemploymentrateincrea countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

Stability

• Headlineinflationincreasedto2.6 Priceinflationdecreasedto1.2%. • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban increasedslightlyin1Q14.Liquidity • Higherdeficitinthefirst4months increasingbutnottooworryingjus • BalanceofPaymentturnedpositive Externaldebthasbeenincreasingb




efirstquarterof2014 nvestmentandPrivateconsumptionwereaffectedand heoverallgrowth ontractioninManufacturingandConstructionhasdragged

esitsdeclineinto2014 mlastmonthwhilePrivateInvestmentcontinuedtodecline ecreased.Touristarrivaldropped. ndownwardtrendwhileFiscalspendingislimited whileconsumerswerelesspessimistic en2.0%Ͳ2.7%for2014and4.4Ͳ4.8%for2015.

asedto0.9%,stillaverylowratecomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

62%whileCoreincreasedslightlyto1.75%inMay.Producer

nk’scapitalratioincreasedandisstillhigh.Totalsystem’sNPL ytightenedslightlyasloanexpanded. of2014,comparedtothesameperiodin2013.Publicdebtis styet. einthefirst4monthsof2014,thankstotradesurplus. butstillnotdangerous.THBappreciatedinMay.

45


ExceptforonlyBangkok,poverty havedeclinedoverthelastdecad Chart2.04a

Chart2.04b

ThailandPovertyLine

Numberofpoorpe

Baht/month/person

Million

3,500

25

3,000 20 2,500 15

2,000

1,500

10

1,000 5 500

0

0 '01

'03

'05

'07

'09

Legendcolor:

'11

Overall

'01

'03

Bangkok

'05

Centr

Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conducted every 2 years. For the mi

Source: NESDB


headcountandpovertyrate de Chart2.04c

eople

PercentofPoorpeople Percentageoftotalpopulation 60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% '07

ral

'09

North

'11

'01

'03

NorthEast

South

'05

'07

ssing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years

'09

'11

46

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


ManycountriesinAsiaandespec oftheirpopulationsearninglesst

Chart2.05â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Povertyintheworld,selectedco

Povertyheadcountratioat$2aday(PPP)(%ofpopulation),L Congo,Dem.Rep. Madagascar Nigeria Ethiopia Bangladesh TimorͲLeste India LaoPDR

6

Pakistan

60.2

Nepal

57.3

Cambodia

53.3

Indonesia

46.1

Vietnam

43.4

Philippines

41.5

SouthAfrica

31.3

China

29.8

Bhutan

29.8

SriLanka

29.1

Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank

21.4 15.8


ciallyASEAN,stillhavemajority than$2.00aday

ountries

Latest 95.2 92.6 84.5 77.6 76.5 72.8 68.7

66.0

Egypt,ArabRep.

15.4

Venezuela,RB

12.9

Peru

12.7

Brazil

10.8

Iran,IslamicRep.

8.0

Mexico

5.2

Thailand

4.6

Turkey

4.2

Chile

2.7

Malaysia

2.3

Argentina

1.9

Romania

1.7

Bulgaria

0.4

Hungary

0.4

Montenegro

0.3

Poland

0.2

SlovakRepublic

0.1

Slovenia

0.1

Croatia

0.1

RussianFederation

0.1

47

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


AnaverageThaiisslightlypoorer morethanthreetimesricherthan

Chart2.06â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNIpercapita,selectedcountrie 2012orlatest,Atlasmethod(currentUS$) Monaco(1) Liechtenstein(2) Bermuda(3) Norway(4) Switzerland(5) Qatar(6) Luxembourg(7) ChannelIslands(8) Denmark(9) Australia(10) Sweden(11) MacaoSAR,China(12) SanMarino(13) Canada(14) UnitedStates(15) IsleofMan(16) Netherlands(17) Austria(18) Japan(19) Singapore(20) Finland(21) Belgium(22) Kuwait(23) Germany(24) Andorra(25)

Source: The World Bank

1 106,920 98,860 82,730 78,720 76,960 65,440 59,770 59,570 56,210 55,720 51,470 50,970 50,120 48,550 48,250 48,160 47,870 47,210 46,940 44,990 44,730 44,010 43,110


rthananaverageChinesebut nanaverageIndian

es

()=Worldrank 186,950

36,770

France(26) 41,750 Ireland(27) 38,970 UnitedKingdom(29) 38,250 HongKongSAR,… 36,560 BruneiDarussalam… 31,590 Spain(35) 30,110 Greece(39) 23,260 Korea,Rep.(41) 22,670 RussianFederation… 12,700 Malaysia(73) 9,800 Mexico(74) 9,740 Maldives(95) 5,750 China(96) 5,740 Thailand(102) 5,210 Iran,IslamicRep.… 4,290 TimorͲLeste(120) 3,670 Indonesia(124) 3,420 Egypt,ArabRep.(133) 3,000 SriLanka(135) 2,920 Philippines(139) 2,470 Bhutan(140) 2,420 India(149) 1,530 Vietnam(152) 1,400 LaoPDR(157) 1,260 Cambodia(166) 880 48

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


UsingPurchasingPowerParity,Th withhigherGNIpercapitathanC

Chart2.07â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNIpercapita,selectedcountrie 2012orlatest,PPP(currentinternational$) Qatar(1) MacaoSAR,China(2) Norway(3) Luxembourg(4) Singapore(5) Switzerland(6) HongKongSAR,China(7) UnitedStates(8) BruneiDarussalam(9) Kuwait(10) Netherlands(11) Austria(12) Australia(13) Sweden(14) Canada(15) Denmark(16) UnitedArabEmirates(17) Germany(18) Belgium(19) Finland(20) France(21) Japan(22) UnitedKingdom(23) Ireland(24) Iceland(25)

Source: The World Bank

68

64,03 63,00 61,100 54,870 53,050 50,610 49,370 49,230 43,360 43,220 43,170 43,160 42,690 42,620 42,380 41,370 39,260 38,210 36,460 36,320 35,800 35,110 33,550


hailand’srankimprovedto89th, China

es

8,710

30

0

()=Worldrank 84,670

Italy(26) 32,280 Korea,Rep.(28) 30,890 Israel(32) 28,070 Greece(38) 24,790 RussianFederation… 22,760 Mexico(60) 16,630 Malaysia(61) 16,530 Argentina(75) 11,740 Brazil(76) 11,720 Thailand(89) 9,430 China(94) 9,210 Bhutan(105) 6,310 SriLanka(107) 6,120 Indonesia(119) 4,810 Philippines(121) 4,400 India(128) 3,840 Vietnam(132) 3,440 LaoPDR(137) 2,730 Cambodia(140) 2,360 Bangladesh(147) 2,070 Kenya(154) 1,760 Ethiopia(169) 1,140 Madagascar(172) 950 Niger(176) 650 Congo,Dem.Rep.… 370 49

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Increasingtrendinhouseholdinc debtserviceyearhasreducedfro Chart2.10aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthlyincomeperhousehold Average,Baht

17,787

18,660

2006

2007

20,903

23,236

14,963

2004

2009

2011

Chart2.10bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthlyexpenditureperhouseh Average,Baht

14,311

14,500

2006

2007

16,205

17,403

12,297

2004

2009

Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis

2011


come,expenditureanddebt,but omtherecentpeakin2004

hold

Chart2.10c– Debtperhousehold Average,Baht

104,571

2004

116,585

116,681

2006

2007

134,699

134,900

2009

2011

Chart2.10d– Debtserviceyear* 3.3 2.8 2.3

2.4 1.9

2004

2006

2007

2009

2011

Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)

50

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

• TheThaiEconomycontractedinth Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,In contributednegativelytot Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Co theoverallGDPgrowth • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionimprovedfrom • ExportgrewinTHBterm,Importde • Monetaryeasingwithpolicyrateo • Businessesweremorepessimisticw • Theconsensusprojectionisbetwee

Income distribution

• InApril,unemploymentrateincrea countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

Stability

• Headlineinflationincreasedto2.6 Priceinflationdecreasedto1.2%. • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban increasedslightlyin1Q14.Liquidity • Higherdeficitinthefirst4months increasingbutnottooworryingjus • BalanceofPaymentturnedpositive Externaldebthasbeenincreasingb




efirstquarterof2014 nvestmentandPrivateconsumptionwereaffectedand heoverallgrowth ontractioninManufacturingandConstructionhasdragged

esitsdeclineinto2014 mlastmonthwhilePrivateInvestmentcontinuedtodecline ecreased.Touristarrivaldropped. ndownwardtrendwhileFiscalspendingislimited whileconsumerswerelesspessimistic en2.0%Ͳ2.7%for2014and4.4Ͳ4.8%for2015.

asedto0.9%,stillaverylowratecomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

62%whileCoreincreasedslightlyto1.75%inMay.Producer

nk’scapitalratioincreasedandisstillhigh.Totalsystem’sNPL ytightenedslightlyasloanexpanded. of2014,comparedtothesameperiodin2013.Publicdebtis styet. einthefirst4monthsof2014,thankstotradesurplus. butstillnotdangerous.THBappreciatedinMay.

51


Bothheadlineandcoreinflationi

Chart3.07a– YͲoͲYchangeinCPI Percent 3.00%

Headline 2.50%

2.00%

Core* 1.50%

1.00%

0.50%

0.00% Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis


increasedslightlyinMay

Chart3.07b– YͲoͲYchangeinCPIbyproduct May2014,percent Meat

8.0

Tobacco&alcohol

6.2

Energy

6.2

Foodawayfromhome

5.8

Seasoning

5.2

Preparedfoodathome

5.1

Eggs&milk

2.3

Transport&Commu

1.9

Housing&furnishing

1.7

Rice

1.6

Medicalcare

1.0

Nonalcoholicbeverage

0.9

Apparelandfootware

0.7

Recreation&Education

0.7

Veg&fruit

0.0

52 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailand’sinflationisratheronth economies Chart3.08– ConsumerPriceIndex Annualpercentagechange

Latest

PakistanͲApr IndiaͲApr IndonesiaͲApr

7

RussiaͲApr

7

BrazilͲApr

6.3

VietnamͲMay

4.7

PhilippinesͲApr

4.1

HongKongͲApr

3.6

MalaysiaͲApr

3.4

AustraliaͲQ1

2.9

ThailandͲMay

2.6

SingaporeͲApr

2.5

USͲApr

2.0

ChinaͲApr

1.8

TaiwanͲApr

1.6

JapanͲMar

1.6

SouthKoreaͲApr

1.5

EuroAreaͲApr Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

0.7


helowsidecomparedtoother

2014* 9.2

7.6

8.6

8.0

.3

6.9

.3

6.0 6.2 6.7 4.0 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.7 2.2 1.7 2.5 1.0 2.6 1.6 0.9

53 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Inflationatproducerleveldecrea

Chart3.09a– YͲoͲYchangeinPPI Percent 3.0%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0% Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis


asedslightlyandremainedlow

Chart3.09b– YͲoͲYchangeinPPIbyproduct May2014,percent Petroluemproducts Energy Fishing Livestocks Metal Chemical Mechinery Leather&footware Wood NonͲmetallicmineral Textile Basicmetals Transportequip Othermanugoods Pulp&paper Forestry Food -0.1 Electricalequip -0.3 Crop -5.0 Rubber&plastic-8.3

15.0 13.9 8.1 4.9 3.0 2.6 2.4 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0

54 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

• TheThaiEconomycontractedinth Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,In contributednegativelytot Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Co theoverallGDPgrowth • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionimprovedfrom • ExportgrewinTHBterm,Importde • Monetaryeasingwithpolicyrateo • Businessesweremorepessimisticw • Theconsensusprojectionisbetwee

Income distribution

• InApril,unemploymentrateincrea countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

Stability

• Headlineinflationincreasedto2.6 Priceinflationdecreasedto1.2%. • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban increasedslightlyin1Q14.Liquidity • Higherdeficitinthefirst4months increasingbutnottooworryingjus • BalanceofPaymentturnedpositive Externaldebthasbeenincreasingb




efirstquarterof2014 nvestmentandPrivateconsumptionwereaffectedand heoverallgrowth ontractioninManufacturingandConstructionhasdragged

esitsdeclineinto2014 mlastmonthwhilePrivateInvestmentcontinuedtodecline ecreased.Touristarrivaldropped. ndownwardtrendwhileFiscalspendingislimited whileconsumerswerelesspessimistic en2.0%Ͳ2.7%for2014and4.4Ͳ4.8%for2015.

asedto0.9%,stillaverylowratecomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

62%whileCoreincreasedslightlyto1.75%inMay.Producer

nk’scapitalratioincreasedandisstillhigh.Totalsystem’sNPL ytightenedslightlyasloanexpanded. of2014,comparedtothesameperiodin2013.Publicdebtis styet. einthefirst4monthsof2014,thankstotradesurplus. butstillnotdangerous.THBappreciatedinMay.

55


Creditmarketisstillgrowingbut Chart3.02a– CommercialBanks’Loan THBbillion 11,000 10,800 10,600 10,400 10,200 10,000 9,800 9,600 9,400 Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Se

Chart3.02b– CommercialBanks’Loan/Depos Percent 100%

95%

95.3%

94.9%

Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

93.5%

95.7%

9

93.3%

90%

85%

Source: Bank of Thailand

Aug-13 S


thepacehassloweddown

M-o-M +0.4% Y-o-Y +9.4%

ep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

96.6%

96.0%

Feb-14

Mar-14

it*ratio

95.5%

95.0%

Sep-13

Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14

95.0%

95.0%

95.9%

Feb-14 Mar-14

56 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


GrossNPLincreasedslightlyin14 percentoftotalloan

Chart3.03a– TotalFinancialInstitutions’Gros BillionBaht

445

458

401

380 317

06YE

07YE

08YE

09YE

10YE

270

11Y

Chart3.03b– TotalFinancialInstitutions’Gros PercentageofTotalLoans

7.47%

7.31% 5.29%

4.85% 3.60%

06YE

07YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

08YE

09YE

10YE

2.75

11Y


4/Q1inabsolutevalueand

ssNPLsOutstanding

0

256

267

281

YE

12YE

13YE

14/Q1

14/Q2

14/Q3

14/Q2

14/Q3

ssNPLsOutstanding

5%

YE

2.26%

2.16%

2.26%

12YE

13YE

14/Q1

57 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Banksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;capitalratioincreasedto1

Chart3.04â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Capitalratioofallcommercialba %ofriskassets,atyearend

15.8%

1

16.1%

14.9%

14.8% 14.0%

13.9% 13.3% 12.4%

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Note:(*)AllCommercialBanksregisteredinThailand,excludingforeignbra

Source: Bank of Thailand


15.5%inMarch

nks* MonthEnd 16.8%

16.2%

16.6%

15.7% 16.4% 16.2% 16.0%

2013 15.8% 15.6% 15.4%

2014

15.2% 15.0% 14.8% 2012

anches

2013

J F M A M J J A S O N D

58 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailand’srealinterestrateisslig Chart3.05– Realinterestrates Percent,asofMay31st 2014

3MriskͲfreeinterestrates Brazil

10.9

Pakistan

10.2

Russia

9.6

India

8.6

Indonesia

8.2

Vietnam

6.0

China

4.9

Malaysia

3.4

SouthKorea

2.7

Australia

2.6

Thailand Philippines Taiwan

1.7 1.2 0.9

HongKong

0.4

EuroArea

0.3

Singapore

0.3

US

0.2

Japan

0.1

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist


ghtlynegative

=

Expected2014inflation*

Realinterestrates

6.2 2.6

7.6

3.6

6.0 0.6

8.0

1.3

6.9 -0.7

6.7

2.4

2.5 0.2

3.2

1.1

1.6 -0.3

2.8

-1.0

2.7 4.0

-2.8 -0.1

1.0 3.6

-3.2 -0.6

0.9 2.2

-1.9 -1.5

1.7 2.6

-2.5

59

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SETalmostunchangedinMayam onemonthafterthecoup Chart3.06aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; MonthlyperformanceofSETindex Percentchangefrompriormonth,atmonthend 4.0%

3.8%

2.8% 0.1%

-1.9% -5.3%

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Chart3.06bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Cumulativenetforeignfundflow SET&MAI,BillionBaht,Monthend 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 -30.0 -40.0 -50.0 D-13 J-14 F-14 M-14 A-14 M-14 J-14 J-14 A-14 S-14 O-14 N-14 D-14

Source: SET, The Economist; CTE analysis

E


midtheheaviestforeignselloutin Chart3.06câ&#x20AC;&#x201C; ChangesinceDec31st 2013 Percent,asofMay28th 2014 Indonesia(JSX)

16.6%

India(BSE)

16.0%

Pakistan(KSE)

14.8%

Thailand(SET)

8.0%

Taiwan(TWI)

5.9%

France(CAC40)

5.5%

Germany(DAX)

4.1%

EuroArea(FTSEEuro100)

4.0%

Singapore(STI)

3.3%

US(S&P500)

3.3%

Australia(AllOrd.)

2.9%

UK(FTSE100)

1.5%

US(NAScomp)

1.2%

Malaysia(KLSE)

0.3%

US(DJIA)

0.3%

SKorea(KOSPI)

0.3%

HK(HangSeng)

-1.0%

China(SSEA) China(SSEB,$terms) Japan(Nikkei225)

-3.1% -7.5% -9.9%

60 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

• TheThaiEconomycontractedinth Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,In contributednegativelytot Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Co theoverallGDPgrowth • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionimprovedfrom • ExportgrewinTHBterm,Importde • Monetaryeasingwithpolicyrateo • Businessesweremorepessimisticw • Theconsensusprojectionisbetwee

Income distribution

• InApril,unemploymentrateincrea countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

Stability

• Headlineinflationincreasedto2.6 Priceinflationdecreasedto1.2%. • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban increasedslightlyin1Q14.Liquidity • Higherdeficitinthefirst4months increasingbutnottooworryingjus • BalanceofPaymentturnedpositive Externaldebthasbeenincreasingb




efirstquarterof2014 nvestmentandPrivateconsumptionwereaffectedand heoverallgrowth ontractioninManufacturingandConstructionhasdragged

esitsdeclineinto2014 mlastmonthwhilePrivateInvestmentcontinuedtodecline ecreased.Touristarrivaldropped. ndownwardtrendwhileFiscalspendingislimited whileconsumerswerelesspessimistic en2.0%Ͳ2.7%for2014and4.4Ͳ4.8%for2015.

asedto0.9%,stillaverylowratecomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

62%whileCoreincreasedslightlyto1.75%inMay.Producer

nk’scapitalratioincreasedandisstillhigh.Totalsystem’sNPL ytightenedslightlyasloanexpanded. of2014,comparedtothesameperiodin2013.Publicdebtis styet. einthefirst4monthsof2014,thankstotradesurplus. butstillnotdangerous.THBappreciatedinMay.

61


Lowerbudgetandcashdeficitas

Chart4.1â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Governmentbudgetandcashbala Percent

Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp

1.4%

1.1%

0.0% 0.1%

-0.5%-0.6% -1.1%-1.1 -1.7% -2.0%

04FY

05FY

06FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

07FY

08FY


percentageofGDPin2013

anceaspercentageofnominalGDP

plus)

-0.3% -0.7%

%

-0.9%

-2.0% -2.3% -2.6% -3.6% -4.0% -4.4%

09FY

-4.1%

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY 62

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Slightlyhigherdeficitinthefirst4 thesameperiodin2013 Chart4.2â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Governmentbudgetbalance BillionBaht

Revenue 1,109

1,751 1,241

0

-36

Budget balance

1,390

1,455

1,498

-174

-100

1

1,484

110 -75 -364

-1,109 -1,277

-1,280 -1,629

Expenditure

-1,598 -1,849

-1,825

-1

04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY 1 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


4monthsof2014,comparedto

MonthlycumulativeBudgetbalance (BillionBaht) 2,078

2,153

100.0

,902 50.0

0.0

2014 -50.0

-28 -412

-271 -100.0

2013 -150.0

-200.0

1,930 -2,489

-2,424

-250.0

-300.0

1FY 12FY 13FY

J F M A M J J A S O N D

63 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


NonͲbudgetarydeficitsofarin20

Chart4.3â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Governmentcashbalance BillionBaht

Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp 110 88

0

8

-36 -45 -100 -96 -144 -174

-3

04FY

05FY

06FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

07FY

08FY


014

plus)

-28 -75 -96 -167 -236 -266

-240

-271

364 -401

-412 -466

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

'14/4mo

64 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailandbudgetdeficitisexpecte sameasIndonesia

Chart4.4â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GovernmentBudgetbalanceaspe 2014*,percent HongKong SouthKorea Singapore Russia Philippines Australia Taiwan China Indonesia Thailand EuroArea US Brazil Malaysia Vietnam India

-5

Pakistan Japan

-6.3 -8.1

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist, Bank of Thailand


edtobearound2.3%ofGDP,

ercentageofGDP 1.3 1.2 0.7 -0.4 -1.4 -1.9 -2.1 -2.2 -2.3 -2.3 -2.6 -2.9 -4.0 -4.0 -4.4 .2

65 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


AslightincreaseinPublicdebtin

Chart4.5aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; CompositionofPublicdebt THBTrillion 6.0

5.0 Publicdebtfrom StateEnterprises 4.0

BondtoCompensateFIDF'sLoss &Prefundingdebt

3.0

2.0

DirectGovernmentdebt

1.0

0.0 2010 10%

2011

2012

2013

Mar-14

8%

8%

7%

7%

Source: Public Debt Management Office

Ext as


absolutetermsofarin2014

Chart4.5bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; CompositionofPublicdebt AspercentageofnominalGDP 50% 45% 40%

Publicdebtfrom StateEnterprises

35% 30%

BondtoCompensateFIDF'sLoss &Prefundingdebt

25% 20% 15% 10%

DirectGovernmentdebt

5% 0%

2010

ternaldebt percentoftotal

2011

2012

2013

Mar-14

66 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailand’spublicdebtisnothigh standard Chart4.6– Publicdebtintheworld PercentageofGDP,2013est. 1Japan 3Greece 4Italy 5Iceland 6Portugal 7Ireland 10Singapore 11Cyprus 12Sudan 17France 18Spain 19Egypt 20UnitedKingdom 23Canada 26Germany 27Hungary 29SriLanka 31Morocco 32Austria 35Netherlands 36UnitedStates 39Israel 44ElSalvador 45Bahrain 46Albania

22 175 133 131 128 124 114 113 111 94 94 92 91 86 80 80 78 77 76 73 72 67 62 61 61

Source: CIA fact book; Public Debt Management Office for Thailand’s dat


comparedtointernational

26

ta

48Brazil 53Croatia 54Finland 58Pakistan 59Malaysia 63India 68Philippines 70Vietnam 71Poland 77Laos 78Thailand 79Argentina 88Ukraine 93Bhutan 94Taiwan 99Mexico 102Turkey 105Korea,South 106HongKong 107Switzerland 114China 118Bangladesh 123Norway 128Indonesia 148Russia

59 57 57 55 55 52 50 48 48 46 46 46 41 39 39 38 37 36 36 34 32 31 30 24 8

Intâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;l rule ofthumb <60%of GDP

67

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

• TheThaiEconomycontractedinth Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,In contributednegativelytot Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Co theoverallGDPgrowth • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionimprovedfrom • ExportgrewinTHBterm,Importde • Monetaryeasingwithpolicyrateo • Businessesweremorepessimisticw • Theconsensusprojectionisbetwee

Income distribution

• InApril,unemploymentrateincrea countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

Stability

• Headlineinflationincreasedto2.6 Priceinflationdecreasedto1.2%. • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban increasedslightlyin1Q14.Liquidity • Higherdeficitinthefirst4months increasingbutnottooworryingjus • BalanceofPaymentturnedpositive Externaldebthasbeenincreasingb




efirstquarterof2014 nvestmentandPrivateconsumptionwereaffectedand heoverallgrowth ontractioninManufacturingandConstructionhasdragged

esitsdeclineinto2014 mlastmonthwhilePrivateInvestmentcontinuedtodecline ecreased.Touristarrivaldropped. ndownwardtrendwhileFiscalspendingislimited whileconsumerswerelesspessimistic en2.0%Ͳ2.7%for2014and4.4Ͳ4.8%for2015.

asedto0.9%,stillaverylowratecomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

62%whileCoreincreasedslightlyto1.75%inMay.Producer

nk’scapitalratioincreasedandisstillhigh.Totalsystem’sNPL ytightenedslightlyasloanexpanded. of2014,comparedtothesameperiodin2013.Publicdebtis styet. einthefirst4monthsof2014,thankstotradesurplus. butstillnotdangerous.THBappreciatedinMay.

68


BalanceofPaymentturnedpositi thankstotradesurplus

Chart5.01â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BalanceofPaymentdecompositio BillionUSD

31.3 24.1

5.3 1.2

0.6

-5.0 09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

13FY

14/4mo


iveinthefirst4monthsof2014, TradeBalance(F.O.B) 32.6

on

29.8 17.0

09FY

10FY

11FY

6.0

6.4

7.1

12FY

13FY

14/4mo

Netserviceincome&transfer 0.5

+

-10.7

-12.9

-7.5

-9.1

12FY

13FY

-19.7 09FY

10FY

11FY

14/4mo

NetCapitalMovement+errorsandomissions 21.3 6.7

2.2

-2.3

-2.9 09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13FY

-6.9 14/4mo

69

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StrongAsianexportenginesrefle surplus Chart5.02– CurrentAccountbalance As%of2014GDP* SingaporeͲQ1 TaiwanͲQ1

1

VietnamͲ2012

5.3%

MalaysiaͲQ4

5.3%

SouthKoreaͲApr

4.2%

HongKongͲQ4

3.4%

PhilippinesͲDec

2.8%

ThailandͲQ1

2.6%

EuroAreaͲMar

2.3%

ChinaͲQ4

1.8%

RussiaͲQ1

1.3%

JapanͲMar

0.4%

PakistanͲQ1

-1.9%

USͲQ4

-2.2%

IndiaͲQ1

-2.6%

AustraliaͲQ4

-2.8%

IndonesiaͲQ1

-3.5%

BrazilͲApr

-3.6%

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist


ectinginhugecurrentaccount

Last12months,USDBillion 19.4%

56.3

11.3%

61.9 9.1 11.7 87.1 5.1 9.4 4.9 323.3 188.6 36.1 8.9 -3.3 -379.3 -32.4 -44.2 -27.3 -81.6

70 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Externaldebtlevelincreasedina percentageofGDP Chart5.10a– ExternalDebtLevel BillionUSD 160 120 80 40 0

04YE

05YE

06YE

07YE

08YE

Chart5.10b– ExternalDebtas%ofGDP

40.9%

04YE

37.0%

05YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

38.5%

06YE

35.4%

07YE

31.4%

08YE


bsolutevaluebutdecreasedas

E

09YE

%

28.8%

E

09YE

10YE

11YE

35.2%

33.8%

10YE

11YE

12YE

13/4Q

38.8%

38.2%

12YE

13/4Q

71 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Structureofexternaldebtdoesn year Chart5.11aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Externaldebtbreakdown Privatevs Public Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities

8%

92%

09YE

13%

15%

20%

18%

87%

85%

80%

82%

10YE

11YE

12YE

13/4Q

Source: Bank of Thailand


otchangemuchfromendoflast

Chart5.11b– Externaldebtbreakdown LongͲTermvs ShortͲTerm Long term Short term

44%

56%

09YE

50%

50%

10YE

45%

46%

43%

55%

54%

57%

11YE

12YE

13/4Q

72 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Capabilitytorepayexternaldebt concernasdebtserviceratioislo Chart5.12aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Internationalreserves As%ofSTexternaldebt

418% 370% 340%

330%

312% 279%

08YE

09YE

10YE

11YE

12YE

13/4Q

Note: (*) Debt service payment / Export of goods and services

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


deterioratedbutnotyeta owandreservesathealthylevel Chart5.12bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Debtserviceratio* Percent

8.2% 7.6%

4.7% 4.2%

3.9%

3.4%

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13/4Q

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NetInternationalreservesincreas stillconsideredexcessive Chart5.13aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Internationalreserveslevel* Attheendofperiod,BillionUSD

154.1 55.9

2005

106.5

118.0

2007

2008

73.9

2006

2009

Chart5.13bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Internationalreservesasnumbe

13.8 9.1 5.7

2005

6.9

2006

2007

7.9

2008

2009

Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


sedslightlysofarthisyearand

191.7

206.4

205.8

2011

2012

190.2

192.1

2013

Apr-14

9.1

9.7

2013

Apr-14

1

9

2010

erofmonthsofimport**

8

12.6 10.8

9

2010

the last 12 months

2011

9.9

2012

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THBappreciatedslightlyagainstk

Chart5.17a– NominalEffectiveExchangeRate 2007=100

110.0

Bahtappreciates MͲoͲM

+0.8%

108.0

106.0

104.0

102.0

100.0

YͲoͲY

Ͳ5.6%

Bahtdepreciates May-13

Aug-13

Nov-13

Feb-14

98.0

96.0 May-14

Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


keycurrenciesinMay

e

0

Chart5.17b– YͲoͲYchangeinFXrate* Percentagechangeinavg.sellingrateasofMay31st 2014 IDRͲ3.0351

6.7

INRͲ0.5906

-3.3

0

MYRͲ10.3668

0

AUDͲ30.8231

-4.6

0

PHPͲ0.7619

-4.9

0

0

-3.9

CNYͲ5.321

-6.4

JPYͲ32.5674

-7.4

MXNͲ2.5646

-7.7

TWDͲ1.0984

-8.0

USDͲ32.931

-8.0

SGDͲ26.3818

-8.4

EURͲ44.9156 VNDͲ0.0016

-11.8 -12.5

GBPͲ55.2091 -16.3 KRWͲ0.0323 -17.0 Bahtdepreciates

Bahtappreciates 75

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140531 eng emag split