Page 1

Monthly  Economic  Brief  October 2013 issue


Executivesummary Growth RealGDPin2Q13grew2.8%fromayearago, lessthanhalfthegrowthrateinthefirst quarter.Ontheexpenditureside,thegrowth wasdrivenmainlybygrowthinExportand PrivateConsumption.Ontheproductionside, Manufacturingisthemaindrag. InAugust,Manufacturingproduction continuedtodeclinewhileAgriculture productionbouncedback.Ontheexpenditure side,Privateconsumptionreboundedbut investmentcontinuedtocooldown.FDIalso dropped significantlyyearͲtoͲdate. ExporttumbledandregisteredͲ3.0%growth inthefirst8monthsof2013.Theproblem occurredineverymainexportmarkets, exceptASEAN.Ontheotherhand,Importalso registeredanegativegrowth,drivenbylower intermediategoodsimport.Touristarrivals grewatanimpressive21%intheperiod. Lookingforward,MonetarypoliciesareproͲ growth,withpolicyrateremainslow. Governmentspendingsofarthisyearhas beentighteningcomparedwiththesame periodlastyear.

Confidenceinprivates BusinessesandIndust pessimistic.Consumer pessimistic.

FPOandTheEconomis projectionsfor2013d Consensusprojectioni 4.20%for2013and4.7

Employmentandwea Unemploymentratero butstillthelowestune amongmajorandeme

Thailand’spercapitain 5,210in2012,ranked averageThaiisslightly averageChinesebutm richerthananaverage Incomedistributionis buttherehasbeenove thepasttwodecades, Bangkok.Povertyhead havedeclinedoverthe


sectorisworsened. riesweremore rwerealsomore

stpollcuttheirgrowth rasticallyinSeptember. isnowbetween3.75Ͳ 7Ͳ5.1%for2014.

althdistribution osefastto0.89%inJuly, employmentlevel ergingeconomies.

ncomewasatUSD 102nd intheworld.An ypoorerthanan morethanthreetimes eIndian.Thailand’s amongtheworstinAsia erallimprovementover exceptforonlyin dcountandpovertyrate elastdecade.

Stability BothHeadlineandCoreinflationdecreased againinSeptemberto1.4%and0.6% respectively,aratherlowlevelbyhistorical andinternationalstandards. Bankingsystemisquitestable.Bank’scapital ratioisstillhigh,at15.8%inJuly.Total system’sNPLincreasedslightlyin2Q13. Fiscalbalanceisimproving.Budgetbalance forthefirst8 monthsof2013turnedpositive. PublicdebtaspercentageofGDPincreased slightlysofarthisyearduemainlytodirect governmentdebt,butthecurrentlevelof 44%isnotyetdangerous.Majorityofthe publicdebtisdomesticbased. BalanceofPaymentinthefirst8monthsof 2013isslightlynegativeduetocurrent accountdeficit.Externaldebtincreased slightlybutcapabilitytorepayisnotaconcern asdebtserviceratioremainedlowand internationalreservesisathealthylevel.THB depreciated0.3%againstabasketofkey currenciesinSeptember.

2

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• GDPin2Q13grew2.8%fromayea Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Consumption Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionreboundedbu • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • BusinessesandIndustriesweremo • FPOandTheEconomistpollcutthe consensusprojectionisnowbetwe

• Unemploymentraterosefastto0.8 • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLincreasedslightlyinthesecond • Budgetbalanceforthefirst8 mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentturnedtodefic THBdepreciate0.3%inSeptember




arago,lessthanhalfthegrowthrateinthefirstquarter hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybygrowthinExportandPrivate

anufacturingisthemaindrag edtodropinAugust utPrivateInvestmentcontinuedtoslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened orepessimistic eirgrowthprojectionsfor2013drasticallyinSeptember; een3.75Ͳ4.20%for2013and4.7Ͳ5.1%for2014

89%inJuly,butstillverylowcomparedtoothercountries mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininSeptemberto1.4%and0.6%respectively nk’scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.8%inJuly.Totalsystem’s dquarter thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

cit.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnotdangerous. r.

3


GDPin2Q13grew2.8%fromaye rateinthefirstquarter Chart1.05– HistoricalRealGDPgrowthrate Annualgrowth,percent 7.1% 6.3% 5.3% 4.6%

CAGR* 2001Ͳ2012 =4.3% 2.2%

5.1% 5.0%

2.5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200

Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis


earago,lessthanhalfthegrowth

7.8% 6.5% 5.4%

2.8%

5%

0.1%

-2.3%

08 2009 2010 2011 2012

1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13

4 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Manufacturing’sslowdowninthe overallGDPgrowththemost Chart1.06a– Realgrowthbysector,2Q13 YearͲonͲYearpercentagechange 2.8

GDP

14.2

Hotel&Res Othersocial

10.6

Financial

10.3 7.5

Transport

6.6

Education Construction

5.0

Health&Social

4.9

PrivateHH

4.1

RealEstate

3.9 3.4

PublicAdmin Trading

2.9

Mining

2.9

Utilities

2.7 1.5

Agriculture Manufacture

-1.0

Fishing -7.9 Source: NESDB; CTE analysis


esecondquarterhasdraggedthe

Chart1.06b– Sectoralcontributions,2Q13 ContributionstototalRealGDPgrowth 2.8

GDP 0.7

Transport

0.6

Hotel&Res

0.5

Financial

0.4

Trading

0.2

Othersocial Education

0.2

RealEstate

0.2

Construction

0.1

Utilities

0.1

Agriculture

0.1

PublicAdmin

0.1

Mining

0.1

Health&Social

0.1

PrivateHH

0.0

Fishing Manufacture

-0.1 -0.4

5 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Exportcontributedthemosttoto

Chart1.08a– Realgrowthbyexpenditure,2Q YearͲonͲYearpercentagechange GDP

2.8

G

5.8

I

5.2

I(capital)

4.5

ͲM X C

4.1

2.8

2.4

Note: (*) C = Private consumption, I = Investment which includes I (capital) = Capital fo G = Government consumption, X = Export of goods and services, M = Import

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis


otalrealGDPgrowthin2Q13

Q13 Chart1.08b– ExpenditureContributions,2Q13 ContributionstototalRealGDPgrowth GDP

2.8

X

2.1

C

1.3

I(capital)

1.1

G

0.6

I(Inventory)

0.2

Discrpncy ͲM

0.0

-2.5

ormation and I (inventory) = Change in inventory t of goods and services

6 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• GDPin2Q13grew2.8%fromayea Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Consumption Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionreboundedbu • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • BusinessesandIndustriesweremo • FPOandTheEconomistpollcutthe consensusprojectionisnowbetwe

• Unemploymentraterosefastto0.8 • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLincreasedslightlyinthesecond • Budgetbalanceforthefirst8 mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentturnedtodefic THBdepreciate0.3%inSeptember




arago,lessthanhalfthegrowthrateinthefirstquarter hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybygrowthinExportandPrivate

anufacturingisthemaindrag edtodropinAugust utPrivateInvestmentcontinuedtoslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened orepessimistic eirgrowthprojectionsfor2013drasticallyinSeptember; een3.75Ͳ4.20%for2013and4.7Ͳ5.1%for2014

89%inJuly,butstillverylowcomparedtoothercountries mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininSeptemberto1.4%and0.6%respectively nk’scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.8%inJuly.Totalsystem’s dquarter thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

cit.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnotdangerous. r.

7


Manufacturingproductioncontin

Chart1.11– ManufacturingProductionIndex (2000=100) CAGR

4.3%

194.2 174.8 152.1

161.1

182.6 170.0

138.6 124.2

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics


nuedtodropinAugust

MonthlyAverage 250.0

200.0

177.7 181.6

2012

2013

150.0

100.0

MͲoͲM Ͳ0.5% YͲoͲY Ͳ3.1%

50.0

0.0

2011 2012

J F M A M J J A S O N D

8 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


InAugust,mostsectorshadlowe monthandayearago

Chart1.12a– YͲonͲYchangeinMPIbysector August2013,percent 19.9

BasicMat Petroleum

8.7

Apparel

7.6 5.5

Woodproducts

3.9

Rubber&Plastic Paper

2.3

Officeautomate

2.1 0.6

Mineral Electrical

0.0

Metalproducts

-0.6

Textiles

-1.5

Electronic

-1.9

Chemical

-2.4 -4.9

Leather

-7.1

Machineries Food&Bev

-9.7

Precisioninstru

-10.4 -11.9

Vehicles TransportEquip

-16.9

Furniture

-25.4

Tobacco

-25.6

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis


rproductionfromtheprior

Chart1.12b– MͲonͲMchangeinMPIbysector August2013,percent 9.1 0.8 10.2 2.2 3.6 4.8 6.5 -4.3 -19.4 1.3 -3.2 -3.7 0.2 6.6 -9.9 -3.2 -9.5 -5.3 -12.2 0.4 -12.9

9 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Capacityutilizationratedecrease

Chart1.13a– OverallCapacityUtilizationRate Percent 100% 90% 80% 70%

63.4%

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics


edslightlyinAugust

Chart1.13b– Capacityutilizationratebysector August2013,percent Precisioninstru Vehicles Chemical Petroleum Paper Mineral Electrical Machineries Rubber&Plastic TransportEquip Metalproducts Electronic Officeautomate Apparel BasicMat Food&Bev Tobacco Textiles Furniture Leather Woodproducts

122% 91% 83% 80% 74% 73% 70% 70% 68% 68% 61% 60% 60% 52% 52% 48% 44% 44% 29% 29% 22%

10 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailand’sMPIdroppedthemost

Chart1.14– ManufacturingProductionIndex Latest,percentchangeonyearago PhilippinesͲJul ChinaͲAug MalaysiaͲJul PakistanͲJun VietnamͲAug AustraliaͲQ2 SingaporeͲAug IndonesiaͲJul USͲAug

2

IndiaͲJul

2. 2.0

BrazilͲJul

1.8

JapanͲJul 0.9

SouthKoreaͲJul

0.3

HongKongͲQ2 -0.1

RussiaͲAug

-0.7

TaiwanͲAug -2.1

EuroAreaͲJul ThailandͲAug Source: The Economist

-3.1


tfromayearago

x 12.0 10.4 7.6 4.8 4.4 3.9 3.5 3.2

.7 6

11 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Agricultureproductionbouncedb comparedtolastyear Chart1.10– Agricultureproductionindex (2005=100) CAGR

3.1%

106.1

113.4 112.9 109.7 111.5

100.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture a


backfromJuly,butwasstilldown

MonthlyAverage 250.0

123.2

127.1

200.0

YͲoͲY Ͳ3.1% MͲoͲM 15.4%

150.0

2012 100.0

2013

50.0

0.0

2011 2012

J F M A M J J A S O N D

12 nd Cooperatives

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• GDPin2Q13grew2.8%fromayea Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Consumption Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionreboundedbu • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • BusinessesandIndustriesweremo • FPOandTheEconomistpollcutthe consensusprojectionisnowbetwe

• Unemploymentraterosefastto0.8 • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLincreasedslightlyinthesecond • Budgetbalanceforthefirst8 mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentturnedtodefic THBdepreciate0.3%inSeptember




arago,lessthanhalfthegrowthrateinthefirstquarter hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybygrowthinExportandPrivate

anufacturingisthemaindrag edtodropinAugust utPrivateInvestmentcontinuedtoslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened orepessimistic eirgrowthprojectionsfor2013drasticallyinSeptember; een3.75Ͳ4.20%for2013and4.7Ͳ5.1%for2014

89%inJuly,butstillverylowcomparedtoothercountries mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininSeptemberto1.4%and0.6%respectively nk’scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.8%inJuly.Totalsystem’s dquarter thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

cit.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnotdangerous. r.

13


Privateconsumptionbouncedba

Chart1.15– CompositePrivateConsumptionI (2000=100) CAGR

3.2%

111.2

117.8

126.2 121.9 124.2

130.6

134.2 127.2

03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1

Note:(*)seasonallyadjusted Source: Bank of Thailand


ckinAugust

Index* MonthlyAverage 160.0

147.0

155.0

139.2

11-Avg 12-Avg

150.0

2013

2012 145.0

140.0

MͲoͲM 0.9%

135.0

YͲoͲY 0.6%

130.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

14 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Mostconsumptionexpenditures aslowdownforsomeinAugust Chart1.16a– YͲonͲYchange First8monthsof2013vs 2012,percent PassengerCar(Unit)

11

NGV(kg.)*

9.1

Benzene&Gasohol(litre) HHelectricity(kilowatt/hour)

5.5

Realimportofconsumergoods(2000 prices,US$)

5.5

LPG(litre)*

3.3

RealVAT(2000prices,baht)

3.0 1.1

CommercialCar(Unit) -1.8

Motocycle(Unit) Diesel(litre)

-9.6

Note:(*)figuresare1Ͳmonthdelayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


stillgrewsofarthisyeardespite

Chart1.16b– MͲonͲMchange AugustvsJuly2013,percent 18.4

10.3

.3

0.7 -2.5 1.8 -5.9 -0.2 5.8 -3.7 -2.3

15 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


PrivateInvestmentcontinuedtod

Chart1.17– PrivateInvestmentIndex (2000=100)

CAGR

6.9%

172.1 174.9 175.3 155.8

193.0

183.4 160.8

133.2

03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1

Source: Bank of Thailand


dropinAugust

MonthlyAverage 300.0

2013 250.0

2012 242.1 200.0

210.2

11-Avg 12-Avg

150.0

100.0

MͲoͲM Ͳ0.1%

YͲoͲY Ͳ4.0%

50.0

0.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

16 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Mostprivateinvestmentexpendi farthisyeardespiterecentslowd Chart1.18a– YͲonͲYchange First8monthsof2013vs 2012,percent

Domesticcommercialcar sales(unit)

15.

DomesticCementsales(ton)

13.6

ConstructionAreapermitted (sqm)

5.1

DomesticMachinerysales* (2000prices,Baht)

5.0

ImportofCapitalGoods (2000prices,Baht)

-3.4

Note:(*)figuresare1Ͳmonthdelayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


tureshadimpressivegrowthso down

1

Chart1.18b– MͲonͲMchange AugustvsJuly2013,percent

-5.3

0.9

-1.3

3.8

0.2

17 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CumulativeFDIinthefirst7mont thelevelatthesameperiodlasty Chart5.14– ForeignDirectInvestment MillionUSD 11,331

1 9,460

9,112

8,999

10FY

11FY

8,547

4,853

06FY

07FY

(*) Preliminary figures

Source: BOT

08FY

09FY


thsof2013dropped15%from year

MonthlycumulativeFDI* 12,000

2012

10,697

12FY

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2013 2,000

0

J

F M A M J

J

A S O N D

18 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


BOI’snetapplicationforthefirst almost20%fromthesameperiod

Chart5.15– BOInetapplicationofforeigndi BillionBaht

CAGR

21.5%

396 351 297 236

08FY

09FY

10FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

Source: Board of Investment

11FY


8monthsof2013dropped dlastyear

irectinvestment*

648

387 316

12FY

2012/8M

2013/8M

19 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Mostpropertyindicatorsincrease year Chart1.19a– YͲonͲYchange First7monthsof2013vs thoseof2012,percent

52

Condounitregistered

19.1

Valueoflandtransaction

12.7

Newhousingunit

Constr.Areainmunicipal

-3.7

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


edinthefirst7monthsofthis

2.1

Chart1.19b– MͲonͲMchange JulyvsJune2013,percent

-49.9

-13.0

33.1

18.5

20 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• GDPin2Q13grew2.8%fromayea Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Consumption Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionreboundedbu • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • BusinessesandIndustriesweremo • FPOandTheEconomistpollcutthe consensusprojectionisnowbetwe

• Unemploymentraterosefastto0.8 • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLincreasedslightlyinthesecond • Budgetbalanceforthefirst8 mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentturnedtodefic THBdepreciate0.3%inSeptember




arago,lessthanhalfthegrowthrateinthefirstquarter hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybygrowthinExportandPrivate

anufacturingisthemaindrag edtodropinAugust utPrivateInvestmentcontinuedtoslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened orepessimistic eirgrowthprojectionsfor2013drasticallyinSeptember; een3.75Ͳ4.20%for2013and4.7Ͳ5.1%for2014

89%inJuly,butstillverylowcomparedtoothercountries mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininSeptemberto1.4%and0.6%respectively nk’scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.8%inJuly.Totalsystem’s dquarter thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

cit.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnotdangerous. r.

21


Exporthasdecreasedinthefirst8 AgroandElectronicsthemaindra

Chart5.05a– YTDannualchangeinExportin First8monthsof2013vs thatof2012,percent Totalexport Metal Forestry Automotive Aircrafts Chemicals Opticalinstru PetroͲchemical Othermanufacturing Jewellery Furniture ReͲexports Apparels Electrical Machinery Toiletries Electronics Agriculture Footware Agroproducts Petroleum Photoinstru Mining Fishery Otherexport

-3.0

12 11. 7.7 6.8 6.4 2.6 2.5 1.9 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.6 -1.2 -3.8 -5.6 -7.0 -7.0 -7.5 -8.8 -17.4 -20.4 -29.5 -40.8

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


8months,withOtherexport, ags Baht Chart5.05b– Sectoralcontributions Contributionstototalexportgrowth Totalexport Automotive .2 Metal 0 Chemicals PetroͲchemical Aircrafts Othermanufacturing Forestry Jewellery Opticalinstru Apparels Furniture ReͲexports Footware Electrical Toiletries Machinery Mining Photoinstru Fishery Petroleum Agriculture Electronics Agroproducts Otherexport

-3.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.3

22 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


ApartfromASEAN,exportdecrea year Chart5.07a– Exportbycountry PercentoftotalexportinTHBterm

᪛ 7.1 (Trilli

100% =

᪛ 5.9

᪛ 5.2

᪛ 6.1

᪛ 6.7

MiddleEast

5.4

5.7

5.0

4.7

5.1

EU

13.2

11.9

11.3

10.9

9.5

11.3

10.3

10.5

10.7

10.2

11.7

11.1

11.3

12.7

12.2 18.4

18.1

17.4

18.1

21.0

21.0

Japan NAFTA Restof theworld

16.6

EastAsia exͲJapan

18.3

20.1

20.4

ASEAN

22.5

21.3

23.0

24.3

24.7

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


asedineveryregionssofarthis

Chart5.07b– ChangeinExport InTHBterm,First8monthsof2013vs 2012

ion) 2.0%

-1.5%

-3.6%

EU

NAFTA

-4.6%

EastAsiaexJapan

-4.7%

Restoftheworld

-6.2%

-7.9%

ASEAN

MiddleEast

Japan 23 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Importhasdecreasedinthefirst decreaseinintermediategoods

Chart5.09a– YTDannualchangeinImportin First8monthsof2013vs 2012,percent

-0.9

Totalimport

16

Others

1.7

Consumergoods

IntermediateͲFuel

Capitalgoods

IntermediateͲNonfuel

-1.7

-3.5

-4.5

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


8monthsof2013,drivenbythe

nBaht Chart5.09b– Sectoralcontributions

6.6

Contributionstototalimportgrowth

Totalimport

-0.9

1.9

Others

0.1

Consumergoods

IntermediateͲFuel

Capitalgoods

-0.3

-0.8

IntermediateͲNonfuel -1.7

24 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Touristarrivalsincreased21%int

Chart5.18– InternationalTouristArrivals Millionvisits

CAGR

8.4%

15.9 13.8 10.8

11.7

14.5

14.1

11.5

10.0

03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY Source: Department of Tourism


thefirst8monthsof2013

Monthlycumulative 25.0

22.3 19.2

Y 11FY 12FY

20.0

2012

15.0

10.0

5.0

2013

0.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

25 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Chinaaccountedforalmosthalfo arrivalssofarthisyear Chart5.19a InternationalTouristArrivals bycountryofnationality Percentoftotal Restof world

14.3

15.3

15.6

14.7

13.9

Americas

6.2

6.0

5.3

5.0

4.8

26.5

25.2

Europe

27.3

East Asia

28.7

27.9

52.1

50.0

51.2

53.8

56.1

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis


ofthetotalincreaseintourist

Chart5.19b 10HighestChangeinInternationalTouristArrivals bycountryofnationality First8monthsof2013vs 2012,Thousands 1,511.8

China

%of totalchange 49%

Russia

285.1

9%

Malaysia

272.4

9%

Japan

136.0

4%

Indonesia

108.2

4%

HongKong

98.8

3%

Singapore

97.6

3%

Vietnam

90.5

3%

Korea

90.5

3%

Taiwan

82.3

3%

26 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• GDPin2Q13grew2.8%fromayea Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Consumption Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionreboundedbu • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • BusinessesandIndustriesweremo • FPOandTheEconomistpollcutthe consensusprojectionisnowbetwe

• Unemploymentraterosefastto0.8 • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLincreasedslightlyinthesecond • Budgetbalanceforthefirst8 mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentturnedtodefic THBdepreciate0.3%inSeptember




arago,lessthanhalfthegrowthrateinthefirstquarter hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybygrowthinExportandPrivate

anufacturingisthemaindrag edtodropinAugust utPrivateInvestmentcontinuedtoslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened orepessimistic eirgrowthprojectionsfor2013drasticallyinSeptember; een3.75Ͳ4.20%for2013and4.7Ͳ5.1%for2014

89%inJuly,butstillverylowcomparedtoothercountries mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininSeptemberto1.4%and0.6%respectively nk’scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.8%inJuly.Totalsystem’s dquarter thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

cit.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnotdangerous. r.

27


Nochangeinpolicyratenorothe August Chart3.01a– BOT’spolicyrate 2.80% 2.70% 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% Oct-12

2.30% Sep-13

Chart3.01c– Savingdepositrate* 10.00% 7.50% 5.00% Max

2.50%

Min Oct-12

0.00% Sep-13

Note:(*)AllCommercialBanksregisteredinThailand,excludingforeignbra

Source: Bank of Thailand


erinterestratesinthemarketin

Chart3.01b– BIBORovernightrate 2.80% 2.70% 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% Sep-13

Oct-12

Chart3.01d– CommercialbankMLR* Max

10.00% 7.50%

Min 5.00% 2.50%

Oct-12

anches

0.00% Sep-13

28 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


8%decreaseinfiscalexpenditure

Chart – Monthly cumulative Fiscal expenditure Billion Baht 3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

2013 0

J

F

M

Source:BankofThailand;CTEanalysis

A

M

J


einthefirst8monthsof2013

2012

J

A

S

O

N

D

29

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• GDPin2Q13grew2.8%fromayea Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Consumption Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionreboundedbu • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • BusinessesandIndustriesweremo • FPOandTheEconomistpollcutthe consensusprojectionisnowbetwe

• Unemploymentraterosefastto0.8 • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLincreasedslightlyinthesecond • Budgetbalanceforthefirst8 mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentturnedtodefic THBdepreciate0.3%inSeptember




arago,lessthanhalfthegrowthrateinthefirstquarter hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybygrowthinExportandPrivate

anufacturingisthemaindrag edtodropinAugust utPrivateInvestmentcontinuedtoslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened orepessimistic eirgrowthprojectionsfor2013drasticallyinSeptember; een3.75Ͳ4.20%for2013and4.7Ͳ5.1%for2014

89%inJuly,butstillverylowcomparedtoothercountries mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininSeptemberto1.4%and0.6%respectively nk’scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.8%inJuly.Totalsystem’s dquarter thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

cit.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnotdangerous. r.

30


BusinessesandIndustrieswerem

Chart1.21a– BusinessSentimentIndex* 100

Better 54.4

53.9 48.8

50

49.9

48.3

47.5

Worse

0 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13 Aug-13

Note:(*)Belowistheinterpretationoftheindex: Index=50indicatesthatbusinesssentimentremainsstable Index>50indicatesthatbusinesssentimenthasimproved Index<50indicatesthatbusinesssentimenthasworsened Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries


morepessimisticinAugust

Chart1.21bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; ThaiIndustriesSentimentIndex** 200

Better

100

93.5

92.9

94.3

93.1

91.9

91.3

Worse

0 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13 Aug-13

Note:(*)Belowistheinterpretationoftheindex: Index=100indicatesthatindustriessentimentremainsstable Index>100indicatesthatindustriessentimenthasimproved Index<100indicatesthatindustriessentimenthasworsened

31 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Consumersinoverallweremore

Chart1.20aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; ConsumerConfidenceIndex Overall

100

O

100

Better

Better

50

50 Worse

Worse

0

0 Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

Feb-13

Apr-1

Note:(*)Theindexrangesfrom0to100 50meansconsumerconfidenceisequaltothoseofthepriormo Over50meansconsumerconfidenceisbetterthanthoseofthe Under50meansconsumerconfidenceisworsethanthoseofth Source: Ministry of Commerce


pessimisticinAugust

Onjob

Onfutureincome

100

Better 50 Worse

0 3

Jun-13

onth epriormonth hepriormonth

Aug-13

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Aug-13

32 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• GDPin2Q13grew2.8%fromayea Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Consumption Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionreboundedbu • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • BusinessesandIndustriesweremo • FPOandTheEconomistpollcutthe consensusprojectionisnowbetwe

• Unemploymentraterosefastto0.8 • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLincreasedslightlyinthesecond • Budgetbalanceforthefirst8 mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentturnedtodefic THBdepreciate0.3%inSeptember




arago,lessthanhalfthegrowthrateinthefirstquarter hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybygrowthinExportandPrivate

anufacturingisthemaindrag edtodropinAugust utPrivateInvestmentcontinuedtoslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened orepessimistic eirgrowthprojectionsfor2013drasticallyinSeptember; een3.75Ͳ4.20%for2013and4.7Ͳ5.1%for2014

89%inJuly,butstillverylowcomparedtoothercountries mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininSeptemberto1.4%and0.6%respectively nk’scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.8%inJuly.Totalsystem’s dquarter thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

cit.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnotdangerous. r.

33


FPOandTheEconomistpollcutt drasticallyinSeptember Chart1.03aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; RealGDPgrowthprojections For2013,Annualpercentagechange 6.00

5.50

FPO BOT

5.00

NESDB 4.50 The Economist poll

4.00

3.50

3.00 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13 Sep-13

Forecast as of, month ending

Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Econo


heirgrowthprojectionsfor2013

omist

Chart1.03bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; RealGDPgrowthprojections For2014,Annualpercentagechange 6.00

5.50

FPO BOT

5.00

The Economist poll

4.50

4.00

3.50

3.00 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13 Sep-13

Forecast as of, month ending 34 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;sgrowthprojectionsare othereconomies

Chart1.04aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; RealGDPgrowthprojections 2013,Annual%change,asofSep28th 2013 7.5 7.0

China Philippines Pakistan Vietnam Indonesia India Malaysia Thailand HongKong SouthKorea

6.1 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.5 4.2 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.3

Australia Taiwan Singapore Russia Brazil Japan US EuroArea -0.5

Source: The Economist

2.3 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6


einthemiddlecomparedto

Chart1.04bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; RealGDPgrowthprojections 2014,Annual%change,asofSep28th 2013 7.3 6.6 3.5 5.5 5.4 6.1 5.0 4.7 3.7 3.4 2.7 3.3 3.8 3.3 2.5 1.5 2.7 0.9 35 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• GDPin2Q13grew2.8%fromayea Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Consumption Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionreboundedbu • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • BusinessesandIndustriesweremo • FPOandTheEconomistpollcutthe consensusprojectionisnowbetwe

• Unemploymentraterosefastto0.8 • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLincreasedslightlyinthesecond • Budgetbalanceforthefirst8 mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentturnedtodefic THBdepreciate0.3%inSeptember




arago,lessthanhalfthegrowthrateinthefirstquarter hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybygrowthinExportandPrivate

anufacturingisthemaindrag edtodropinAugust utPrivateInvestmentcontinuedtoslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened orepessimistic eirgrowthprojectionsfor2013drasticallyinSeptember; een3.75Ͳ4.20%for2013and4.7Ͳ5.1%for2014

89%inJuly,butstillverylowcomparedtoothercountries mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininSeptemberto1.4%and0.6%respectively nk’scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.8%inJuly.Totalsystem’s dquarter thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

cit.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnotdangerous. r.

36


UnemploymentraterosefastinJ

Chart2.08â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Unemploymentrate Percent

2.16

2.07 1.83 1.51

1.49 1.38

1.38

1.04

03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1

Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand


uly

MonthlyAverage 1.20

1.00

2013 0.80

2012 0.60

0.40

0.68

0.66

11-Avg 12-Avg

0.20

0.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

37 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailand’sunemploymentrateis leadingeconomies Chart2.09– Unemploymentrate Latest,percent ThailandͲJul SingaporeͲQ2

0.9 2.1

MalaysiaͲJul

3.0

SouthKoreaͲAug

3.0

HongKongͲAug VietnamͲ2011 JapanͲJul

3.3 3.6 3.9

ChinaͲQ2

4.1

TaiwanͲAug

4.2

RussiaͲAug BrazilͲJul AustraliaͲAug IndonesiaͲQ1 PakistanͲ2011 USͲAug PhilippinesͲQ3 IndiaͲ2012 EuroAreaͲJun Source: The Economist


lowestcomparingtoother

2 5.2 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.0 7.3 7.3 9.9 12.1

38 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• GDPin2Q13grew2.8%fromayea Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Consumption Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionreboundedbu • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • BusinessesandIndustriesweremo • FPOandTheEconomistpollcutthe consensusprojectionisnowbetwe

• Unemploymentraterosefastto0.8 • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLincreasedslightlyinthesecond • Budgetbalanceforthefirst8 mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentturnedtodefic THBdepreciate0.3%inSeptember




arago,lessthanhalfthegrowthrateinthefirstquarter hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybygrowthinExportandPrivate

anufacturingisthemaindrag edtodropinAugust utPrivateInvestmentcontinuedtoslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened orepessimistic eirgrowthprojectionsfor2013drasticallyinSeptember; een3.75Ͳ4.20%for2013and4.7Ͳ5.1%for2014

89%inJuly,butstillverylowcomparedtoothercountries mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininSeptemberto1.4%and0.6%respectively nk’scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.8%inJuly.Totalsystem’s dquarter thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

cit.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnotdangerous. r.

39


Overallimprovementinincomed foronlyinBangkok Chart2.01â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;sGINIcoefficient 0.55

Overall 0.50

South

0.45

0.40

0.35

0.30

'88

'90

'92

'94

'96

'98

Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB


distributioninThailand,except

NorthEast North Central Bangkok

'00

'02

'04

'06

'07

'09

'11

of income.

the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.

40

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Slightimprovementofincomedis topandthebottom20% Chart2.02â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Quintilebyincome Percentoftotalincome

Top20% Bottom20%

11.9

13.3

14.9

14.1

13.5

Top20%

54.4

57.0

59.0

57.2

56.5

Second20%

20.6

19.5

18.9

19.7

19.9

Third20%

12.4

11.7

11.1

11.7

11.8

Forth20%

8.1

7.5

7.4

7.6

Bottom20%

4.6

4.3

7.1 4.0

4.1

4.2

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

5

1


stributionwhencomparedthe

13.1

14.6

13.4

12.2

14.4

12.8

11.8

11.1

56.1

57.5

56.0

54.7

56.0

54.6

54.1

54.2

19.8

19.8

20.1

20.3

20.2

20.5

20.4

19.5

12.0

11.5

12.1

12.5

12.2

12.6

12.7

12.8

7.8

7.7

8.0

7.7

8.0

8.3

8.6

4.3

7.3 4.0

4.2

4.5

3.9

4.3

4.6

4.9

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2007

2009

2011 41

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


DatafromWorldBanksuggeststh ThailandisnotasbadasinMalay Chart2.03â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Incomeequalityintheworld

Ratiooftheshareofnationalincomegoingtotherichest20% Latest,selectedcountries Honduras Bolivia Comoros SouthAfrica Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles CentralAfricanRepublic Paraguay Panama Zambia CostaRica ElSalvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela,RB Mexico Malaysia DominicanRepublic

2 26. 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3

Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis


hatincomeequalityproblemin ysiaorChina

%totheshareofthepoorest20%

29.7 27.8 .7

Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey RussianFederation Thailand Iran,IslamicRep. SriLanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia LaoPDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt,ArabRep. Pakistan Afghanistan SlovakRepublic

11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6

42

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• GDPin2Q13grew2.8%fromayea Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Consumption Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionreboundedbu • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • BusinessesandIndustriesweremo • FPOandTheEconomistpollcutthe consensusprojectionisnowbetwe

• Unemploymentraterosefastto0.8 • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLincreasedslightlyinthesecond • Budgetbalanceforthefirst8 mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentturnedtodefic THBdepreciate0.3%inSeptember




arago,lessthanhalfthegrowthrateinthefirstquarter hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybygrowthinExportandPrivate

anufacturingisthemaindrag edtodropinAugust utPrivateInvestmentcontinuedtoslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened orepessimistic eirgrowthprojectionsfor2013drasticallyinSeptember; een3.75Ͳ4.20%for2013and4.7Ͳ5.1%for2014

89%inJuly,butstillverylowcomparedtoothercountries mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininSeptemberto1.4%and0.6%respectively nk’scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.8%inJuly.Totalsystem’s dquarter thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

cit.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnotdangerous. r.

43


ExceptforonlyBangkok,poverty havedeclinedoverthelastdecad Chart2.04a

Chart2.04b

ThailandPovertyLine

Numberofpoorpe

Baht/month/person

Million

3,500

25

3,000 20 2,500 15

2,000

1,500

10

1,000 5 500

0

0 '01

'03

'05

'07

'09

Legendcolor:

'11

Overall

'01

'03

Bangkok

'05

Centr

Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conducted every 2 years. For the mi

Source: NESDB


headcountandpovertyrate de Chart2.04c

eople

PercentofPoorpeople Percentageoftotalpopulation 60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% '07

ral

'09

North

'11

'01

'03

NorthEast

South

'05

'07

ssing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years

'09

'11

44

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


ManycountriesinAsiaandespec oftheirpopulationsearninglesst

Chart2.05â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Povertyintheworld,selectedco

Povertyheadcountratioat$2aday(PPP)(%ofpopulation),L Congo,Dem.Rep. Madagascar Nigeria Ethiopia Bangladesh TimorͲLeste India

6

LaoPDR 60.2

Pakistan

57.3

Nepal

53.3

Cambodia 46.1

Indonesia

43.4

Vietnam

41.5

Philippines 31.3

SouthAfrica China

29.8

Bhutan

29.8

SriLanka

29.1

Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank

21.4 15.8


ciallyASEAN,stillhavemajority than$2.00aday

ountries

Latest 95.2 92.6 84.5 77.6 76.5 72.8 68.7

66.0

15.4

Egypt,ArabRep. Venezuela,RB

12.9

Peru

12.7 10.8

Brazil

8.0

Iran,IslamicRep. Mexico

5.2

Thailand

4.6

Turkey

4.2

Chile

2.7

Malaysia

2.3

Argentina

1.9

Romania

1.7

Bulgaria

0.4

Hungary

0.4

Montenegro

0.3

Poland

0.2

SlovakRepublic

0.1

Slovenia

0.1

Croatia

0.1

RussianFederation

0.1

45

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


AnaverageThaiisslightlypoorer morethanthreetimesricherthan

Chart2.06â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNIpercapita,selectedcountrie 2012orlatest,Atlasmethod(currentUS$) Monaco(1) Liechtenstein(2) Bermuda(3) Norway(4) Switzerland(5) Qatar(6) Luxembourg(7) ChannelIslands(8) Denmark(9) Australia(10) Sweden(11) MacaoSAR,China(12) SanMarino(13) Canada(14) UnitedStates(15) IsleofMan(16) Netherlands(17) Austria(18) Japan(19) Singapore(20) Finland(21) Belgium(22) Kuwait(23) Germany(24) Andorra(25)

Source: The World Bank

1 106,920 98,860 82,730 78,720 76,960 65,440 59,770 59,570 56,210 55,720 51,470 50,970 50,120 48,550 48,250 48,160 47,870 47,210 46,940 44,990 44,730 44,010 43,110


rthananaverageChinesebut nanaverageIndian

es

()=Worldrank 186,950

36,770

France(26) 41,750 Ireland(27) 38,970 UnitedKingdom(29) 38,250 HongKongSAR,… 36,560 BruneiDarussalam… 31,590 Spain(35) 30,110 Greece(39) 23,260 Korea,Rep.(41) 22,670 RussianFederation… 12,700 Malaysia(73) 9,800 Mexico(74) 9,740 Maldives(95) 5,750 China(96) 5,740 Thailand(102) 5,210 Iran,IslamicRep.… 4,290 TimorͲLeste(120) 3,670 Indonesia(124) 3,420 Egypt,ArabRep.(133) 3,000 SriLanka(135) 2,920 Philippines(139) 2,470 Bhutan(140) 2,420 India(149) 1,530 Vietnam(152) 1,400 LaoPDR(157) 1,260 Cambodia(166) 880 46

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


UsingPurchasingPowerParity,Th withhigherGNIpercapitathanC

Chart2.07â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNIpercapita,selectedcountrie 2012orlatest,PPP(currentinternational$) Qatar(1) MacaoSAR,China(2) Norway(3) Luxembourg(4) Singapore(5) Switzerland(6) HongKongSAR,China(7) UnitedStates(8) BruneiDarussalam(9) Kuwait(10) Netherlands(11) Austria(12) Australia(13) Sweden(14) Canada(15) Denmark(16) UnitedArabEmirates(17) Germany(18) Belgium(19) Finland(20) France(21) Japan(22) UnitedKingdom(23) Ireland(24) Iceland(25)

Source: The World Bank

68

64,03 63,00 61,100 54,870 53,050 50,610 49,370 49,230 43,360 43,220 43,170 43,160 42,690 42,620 42,380 41,370 39,260 38,210 36,460 36,320 35,800 35,110 33,550


hailand’srankimprovedto89th, China

es

8,710

30

0

()=Worldrank 84,670

Italy(26) 32,280 Korea,Rep.(28) 30,890 Israel(32) 28,070 Greece(38) 24,790 RussianFederation… 22,760 Mexico(60) 16,630 Malaysia(61) 16,530 Argentina(75) 11,740 Brazil(76) 11,720 Thailand(89) 9,430 China(94) 9,210 Bhutan(105) 6,310 SriLanka(107) 6,120 Indonesia(119) 4,810 Philippines(121) 4,400 India(128) 3,840 Vietnam(132) 3,440 LaoPDR(137) 2,730 Cambodia(140) 2,360 Bangladesh(147) 2,070 Kenya(154) 1,760 Ethiopia(169) 1,140 Madagascar(172) 950 Niger(176) 650 Congo,Dem.Rep.… 370 47

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Increasingtrendinhouseholdinc debtserviceyearhasreducedfro Chart2.10aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthlyincomeperhousehold Average,Baht

14,963

2004

17,787

18,660

2006

2007

20,903

2009

23,236

2011

Chart2.10bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthlyexpenditureperhouseh Average,Baht

12,297

2004

14,311

14,500

2006

2007

16,205

2009

Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis

17,403

2011


come,expenditureanddebt,but omtherecentpeakin2004

hold

Chart2.10c– Debtperhousehold Average,Baht

104,571

2004

116,585

116,681

2006

2007

134,699

134,900

2009

2011

Chart2.10d– Debtserviceyear* 3.3 2.8 2.3

2.4 1.9

2004

2006

2007

2009

2011

Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)

48

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• GDPin2Q13grew2.8%fromayea Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Consumption Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionreboundedbu • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • BusinessesandIndustriesweremo • FPOandTheEconomistpollcutthe consensusprojectionisnowbetwe

• Unemploymentraterosefastto0.8 • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLincreasedslightlyinthesecond • Budgetbalanceforthefirst8 mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentturnedtodefic THBdepreciate0.3%inSeptember




arago,lessthanhalfthegrowthrateinthefirstquarter hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybygrowthinExportandPrivate

anufacturingisthemaindrag edtodropinAugust utPrivateInvestmentcontinuedtoslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened orepessimistic eirgrowthprojectionsfor2013drasticallyinSeptember; een3.75Ͳ4.20%for2013and4.7Ͳ5.1%for2014

89%inJuly,butstillverylowcomparedtoothercountries mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininSeptemberto1.4%and0.6%respectively nk’scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.8%inJuly.Totalsystem’s dquarter thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

cit.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnotdangerous. r.

49


BothHeadlineandCoreinflation September Chart3.07a– YͲoͲYchangeinCPI Percent 3.00%

2.50%

Headline 2.00%

1.50%

1.00%

Core*

0.50%

0.00% Apr-13

May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13 Sep-13

Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis


ncontinuedtodecreasein

Chart3.07b– YͲoͲYchangeinCPIbyproduct September2013,percent Meat

8.6

Eggs&milk

8.1

Energy

2.5

Tobacco&alcohol

2.0

Rice

1.4

Foodawayfromhome

1.3

Preparedfoodathome

1.1

Transport&Commu

1.0

Apparelandfootware

0.8

Seasoning

0.8

Medicalcare

0.8

Housing&furnishing

0.7

Recreation&Education

0.4

Nonalcoholicbeverage

0.3

Veg&fruit

-1.1

50 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailand’sinflationisratheronth economies Chart3.08– ConsumerPriceIndex Annualpercentagechange

Latest

IndiaͲAug IndonesiaͲAug PakistanͲAug 6.5

RussiaͲAug

6.3

VietnamͲSep

6.1

BrazilͲAug 4.5

HongKongͲAug 2.6

ChinaͲAug

2.4

AustraliaͲQ2 PhilippinesͲAug

2.1

SingaporeͲAug

2.0

MalaysiaͲAug

1.9

USͲAug

1.5

ThailandͲSep

1.4

EuroAreaͲAug

1.3

SouthKoreaͲAug

1.3

JapanͲJul TaiwanͲAug -0.8 Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

0.7


helowsidecomparedtoother

2013* 9.5

9.6

8.8

7.7

8.5

7.5 6.4 7.0 6.4 4.1 2.6 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.2 1.5 2.4 1.5 1.7 0.1 1.1

51 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Inflationintheproducerlevelwe averylowlevel Chart3.09a– YͲoͲYchangeinPPI Percent 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13 Sep-13

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis


entupinSeptemberbutisstillat

Chart3.09b– YͲoͲYchangeinPPIbyproduct September2013,percent Fishing Livestocks Metal Leather&footware Crop Petroluemproducts Food Chemical NonͲmetallicmineral Transportequip Wood Textile Pulp&paper Forestry Forestry Electricalequip Energy Rubber&plastic Basicmetals Othermanugoods

25.5 21.7 3.0 3.0 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -3.1 -3.2 -9.0

52 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• GDPin2Q13grew2.8%fromayea Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Consumption Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionreboundedbu • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • BusinessesandIndustriesweremo • FPOandTheEconomistpollcutthe consensusprojectionisnowbetwe

• Unemploymentraterosefastto0.8 • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLincreasedslightlyinthesecond • Budgetbalanceforthefirst8 mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentturnedtodefic THBdepreciate0.3%inSeptember




arago,lessthanhalfthegrowthrateinthefirstquarter hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybygrowthinExportandPrivate

anufacturingisthemaindrag edtodropinAugust utPrivateInvestmentcontinuedtoslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened orepessimistic eirgrowthprojectionsfor2013drasticallyinSeptember; een3.75Ͳ4.20%for2013and4.7Ͳ5.1%for2014

89%inJuly,butstillverylowcomparedtoothercountries mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininSeptemberto1.4%and0.6%respectively nk’scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.8%inJuly.Totalsystem’s dquarter thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

cit.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnotdangerous. r.

53


Bank’sloangrowthstartedtocoo thesystemimproved Chart3.02a– CommercialBanks’Loan THBbillion 10,400 10,200 10,000 9,800 9,600 9,400 9,200 9,000 8,800 8,600 Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Ja

Chart3.02b– CommercialBanks’Loan/Depos Percent 100% 95% 90.8%

91.4%

91.1%

92.2%

93.1%

9

90% 85% Aug-12 Sep-12

Source: Bank of Thailand

Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 J


oldowninJulyandliquidityin

M-o-M +0.2% Y-o-Y +12.0%

an-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

it*ratio

93.1%

Jan-13

93.9%

93.4%

Feb-13 Mar-13

95.3%

94.9%

Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

93.5%

93.3%

54 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


GrossNPLincreasedslightlyin2Q percentoftotalloan

Chart3.03a– TotalFinancialInstitutions’Gros BillionBaht

477

05YE

445

06YE

458

07YE

401

08YE

380

09YE

317

10Y

Chart3.03b– TotalFinancialInstitutions’Gros PercentageofTotalLoans 8.16%

7.47%

7.31% 5.29%

4.85%

3.60

05YE

06YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

07YE

08YE

09YE

10Y


Q13inbothabsolutevalueandas

ssNPLsOutstanding

7

YE

270

256

11YE

12YE

257

265

2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3

ssNPLsOutstanding

0%

YE

2.75%

11YE

2.26%

12YE

2.18%

2.21%

2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3 55 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Banksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;capitalratioincreasedto1

Chart3.04â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Capitalratioofallcommercialba %ofriskassets,atyearend

15.8%

16.1%

14.9% 13.4%

13.3%

1 14.0%

13.9%

12.4%

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Note:(*)AllCommercialBanksregisteredinThailand,excludingforeignbra

Source: Bank of Thailand


15.8%inJuly

nks* MonthEnd 16.5%

16.2%

14.8%

16.0%

2013

15.5%

2012

15.0%

14.5%

2011

anches

2012

14.0%

J F M A M J J A S O N D

56 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailand’srealinterestrateiszero Chart3.05– Realinterestrates Percent,asofSeptember28th 2013

3MriskͲfreeinterestrates 9.7

India Pakistan

9.4

Brazil

9.2

Russia

7.2

Indonesia

7.2 6.5

Vietnam 4.7

China 3.1

Malaysia SouthKorea

2.7

Australia

2.5

Thailand

2.4

Taiwan

0.9

Philippines

0.9

HongKong

0.4

Singapore

0.3

US

0.3

EuroArea

0.2

Japan

0.2

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist


o

=

Expected2013inflation*

Realinterestrates

9.6

0.1

7.5

1.9

6.4

2.8

6.4

0.8 7.7

-0.5

7.0

-0.5

2.6

2.1

2.2

0.9

1.7

1.0

2.3

0.2

2.4

0.0

1.1

-0.2 2.8

-2.0 4.1

2.4

0.1

-3.7 -2.1

1.5

-1.3

1.5

-1.3 0.1

57

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


SETincreasedalmost7%inSepte Chart3.06aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; MonthlyperformanceofSETindex Percentchangefrompriormonth,atmonthend 6.9% 2.4%

-2.0%

-2.2% -7.1%

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

-9.1%

Aug-13

Sep-13

E

Chart3.06bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Cumulativenetforeignfundflow SET&MAI,BillionBaht,Monthend 40.0 20.0 0.0 -20.0 -40.0 -60.0 -80.0 -100.0 -120.0 -140.0

J-13 F-13 M-13 A-13 M-13 J-13

J-13 A-13 S-13 O-13 N-13 D-13

Source: SET, The Economist; CTE analysis


ember,thefirsttimein5months Chart3.06câ&#x20AC;&#x201C; ChangesinceDec31st2012 Percent,asofSeptember25th 2013 40.6%

Japan(Nikkei225)

36.4%

Pakistan(KSE) 24.6%

US(NAScomp)

18.7%

US(S&P500)

16.6%

US(DJIA)

15.2%

France(CAC40) Germany(DAX)

13.8%

Australia(AllOrd.)

13.0%

EuroArea(FTSEEuro100)

12.0%

UK(FTSE100)

11.1% 7.6%

Taiwan(TWI)

5.6%

Malaysia(KLSE) Thailand(SET)

3.2%

China(SSEB,$terms)

2.4%

HK(HangSeng)

2.4%

India(BSE)

2.2%

Indonesia(JSX)

2.1%

Singapore(STI)

1.3% 0.1%

SKorea(KOSPI) China(SSEA)

-3.1%

58 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• GDPin2Q13grew2.8%fromayea Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Consumption Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionreboundedbu • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • BusinessesandIndustriesweremo • FPOandTheEconomistpollcutthe consensusprojectionisnowbetwe

• Unemploymentraterosefastto0.8 • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLincreasedslightlyinthesecond • Budgetbalanceforthefirst8 mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentturnedtodefic THBdepreciate0.3%inSeptember




arago,lessthanhalfthegrowthrateinthefirstquarter hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybygrowthinExportandPrivate

anufacturingisthemaindrag edtodropinAugust utPrivateInvestmentcontinuedtoslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened orepessimistic eirgrowthprojectionsfor2013drasticallyinSeptember; een3.75Ͳ4.20%for2013and4.7Ͳ5.1%for2014

89%inJuly,butstillverylowcomparedtoothercountries mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininSeptemberto1.4%and0.6%respectively nk’scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.8%inJuly.Totalsystem’s dquarter thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

cit.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnotdangerous. r.

59


Hugegovernmentbudgetdeficitr slightlybetterthanin2009

Chart4.1â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Governmentbudgetandcashbala Percent

Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp

1.4% 0.3% 0.4%

1.1%

0.0% 0.1%

-0.5%-0.6%

-1.7 -2.0%

03FY

04FY

05FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

06FY

07FY


relativetoGDPin2012,only

anceaspercentageofnominalGDP

plus)

-0.3% -0.7%

-1.1%-1.1%

-1.3%

% -2.6% -3.6% -4.0% -4.4%

08FY

09FY

-4.1%

10FY

11FY

12FY 60

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thegovernmentmanagedtoach first8monthsof2013,bigimprov Chart4.2â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Governmentbudgetbalance BillionBaht

1

Revenue 1,013

1,109

16

0

Budget balance -996

-1,109

1,241

-36

-1,277

1,390

1,455

1,498

-174

-100

-1,629

-1,598

1,484

110 -364

-1,280

Expenditure

-1,849

-1

03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 1 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


ievebudgetsurplusduringthe vementfromlastyear

MonthlycumulativeBudgetbalance (BillionBaht) 100.0 ,751

1,902

2,077

2013 0.0

-100.0

-75

-28 -412 -200.0

2012

-300.0

1,825

-1,930 -400.0 -2,489

-500.0

0FY 11FY 12FY

J F M A M J J A S O N D

61 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Bothbudgetandcashbalancefor arepositive Chart4.3â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Governmentcashbalance BillionBaht

Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp 110

16

24

0

88

8

-36 -45

-1 -144 -174

03FY

04FY

05FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

06FY

07FY


rthefirst8monthsofthisyear

plus)

28

26

-28 -75

00 -96

-137

-266

-364 -401

-412 -466

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

'13/8mo

62 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailandbudgetdeficitin2013is GDP

Chart4.4â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GovernmentBudgetbalanceaspe 2013*,percent HongKong Singapore SouthKorea Russia Australia Philippines China Taiwan Thailand Brazil Indonesia EuroArea US

-4

Malaysia -5.1

India

-5.2

Vietnam Pakistan Japan Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

-8.0 -8.3


expectedtobearound3%of

ercentageofGDP 1.9 0.7 0.5 -0.6 -1.3 -1.9 -2.1 -2.4 -2.9 -3.1 -3.2 -3.3 -4.0

4.3

63 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


AslightincreaseinPublicdebtso

Chart4.5aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; CompositionofPublicdebt THBTrillion 6.0

5.0

4.0

Publicdebtfrom StateEnterprises

3.0 BondtoCompensateFIDF'sLoss &Prefundingdebt 2.0

1.0 DirectGovernmentdebt 0.0 2009 10%

2010

2011

2012

Jul-13

8%

8%

7%

7%

Source: Public Debt Management Office

Ext as


ofarin2013

Chart4.5bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; CompositionofPublicdebt AspercentageofnominalGDP 50% 45% 40%

Publicdebtfrom StateEnterprises

35% 30% 25%

BondtoCompensateFIDF'sLoss &Prefundingdebt

20% 15% 10%

DirectGovernmentdebt

5% 0%

2009

ternaldebt percentoftotal

2010

2011

2012

Jul-13

64 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailand’spublicdebtisnothigh standard Chart4.6– Publicdebtintheworld PercentageofGDP,2012orlatest 1Japan 2Zimbabwe 3Greece 6Lebanon 8Italy 9Portugal 10Iceland 12Ireland 14Singapore 15Belgium 18France 19UnitedKingdom 20Egypt 21Canada 22Spain 25Hungary 27Germany 28SriLanka 31Malta 33Israel 35UnitedStates 37Morocco 39Netherlands 41Croatia 43Bhutan

219 203 161 128 126 120 119 118 107 101 89 89 85 84 83 81 81 79 77 74 74 72 69 66 64

Source: CIA fact book; Public Debt Management Office for Thailand’s dat


comparedtointernational

9

ta

Intâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;l rule ofthumb <60%of GDP 52Bahrain 53Malaysia 54Brazil 58Switzerland 60India 61Philippines 64Venezuela 66Vietnam 67Laos 74Denmark 76Thailand 79CzechRepublic 81SouthAfrica 84NewZealand 85Argentina 87Turkey 92Taiwan 95China 100Mexico 106Korea,South 109Bangladesh 113HongKong 119Australia 121Indonesia 139Russia

56 56 55 52 52 51 49 48 48 45 44 44 43 42 42 40 39 39 35 34 32 30 27 25 11

65

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• GDPin2Q13grew2.8%fromayea Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Consumption Ͳ Ontheproductionside,Ma • Manufacturingproductioncontinue • Privateconsumptionreboundedbu • Exporttumbled,Importdecreased, • MonetarypolicyisstillproͲgrowth • BusinessesandIndustriesweremo • FPOandTheEconomistpollcutthe consensusprojectionisnowbetwe

• Unemploymentraterosefastto0.8 • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• BothHeadlineandCoreinflationd • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban NPLincreasedslightlyinthesecond • Budgetbalanceforthefirst8 mont tooworryingjustyet. • BalanceofPaymentturnedtodefic THBdepreciate0.3%inSeptember




arago,lessthanhalfthegrowthrateinthefirstquarter hegrowthwasdrivenmainlybygrowthinExportandPrivate

anufacturingisthemaindrag edtodropinAugust utPrivateInvestmentcontinuedtoslowdown ,touristarrivalsgrewstrongly whileFiscalspendingtightened orepessimistic eirgrowthprojectionsfor2013drasticallyinSeptember; een3.75Ͳ4.20%for2013and4.7Ͳ5.1%for2014

89%inJuly,butstillverylowcomparedtoothercountries mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

decreasedagaininSeptemberto1.4%and0.6%respectively nk’scapitalratioisstillhigh,at15.8%inJuly.Totalsystem’s dquarter thsof2013turnedpositive.Publicdebtisincreasingbutnot

cit.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnotdangerous. r.

66


DeficitBalanceofPaymentsinth largelytonetserviceincomeand

Chart5.01â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BalanceofPaymentdecompositio BillionUSD

31.3 24.7

24.1

5.3 1.2

-3.6 08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

12FY

13/8mo


efirst8 monthsof2013due transfer TradeBalance(F.O.B) 32.6

on

29.8

17.3

17.0 8.3 1.7

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13/8mo

-5.6

-7.2

12FY

13/8mo

Netserviceincome&transfer

+

-15.2

08FY

-10.7

-11.1 -19.7

09FY

10FY

11FY

NetCapitalMovement+errorsandomissions 22.5

21.3 2.2

2.5

1.9

12FY

13/8mo

-4.7 08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

67

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


StrongAsianexportenginesrefle surplus Chart5.02– CurrentAccountbalance As%of2013GDP* SingaporeͲQ2 TaiwanͲQ2

5.2

VietnamͲ2012

4.9%

MalaysiaͲQ2

4.2%

SouthKoreaͲJul

3.4%

PhilippinesͲJun RussiaͲQ2

2.5%

HongKongͲQ2

2.4%

ChinaͲQ2

2.0%

EuroAreaͲJul

1.8% 1.2%

JapanͲJul -0.1%

ThailandͲQ2

-0.8%

PakistanͲQ2 USͲQ2

-2.7%

AustraliaͲQ2

-3.1%

IndonesiaͲQ2

-3.2%

BrazilͲAug

-3.4%

IndiaͲQ1 Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

-3.9%


ectinginhugecurrentaccount

Last12months,USDBillion 18.3% 11.7%

49.9 52.8

2%

9.1

%

14.2 59.8 10.1 47.9 5.8 211.6 257.4 51.5 -1.4 -2.3 -412.9 -49.4 -28.8 -80.6 -87.8

68 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Worsenedtradebalancesofarin thanimport Chart5.03â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Tradebalance*decomposition BillionBaht

ŕľ&#x17E;

CumulativeExport 8,000 7,000

2012

Cumulative 8,000 7,000

6,000

6,000

5,000

5,000

4,000

4,000

3,000

3,000

2,000

2,000

1,000

2013

Y-o-Y -3.0%

0

1,000

201

0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

J F M A

Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjus (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


2013asexportdroppedmore

=

Import

3

CumulativeTradebalance 0

-100

2012

2012

-200 -300 -400 2013 -500 -600

Y-o-Y -0.9%

M J J A S O N D

stments t and exchange rate conversion t and exchange rate conversion

-700 -800

J F M A M J J A S O N D

69 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Externaldebtlevelincreasedinb terms Chart5.10a– ExternalDebtLevel BillionUSD 160 120 80 40 0

04YE

05YE

06YE

07YE

08YE

Chart5.10b– ExternalDebtas%ofGDP

40.9%

04YE

37.0%

38.5%

05YE

06YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

35.4%

07YE

31.4%

08YE


bothabsoluteandrelativetoGDP

E

09YE

%

28.8%

E

09YE

10YE

11YE

35.2%

33.8%

10YE

11YE

12YE

13/2Q

38.8%

39.3%

12YE

13/2Q

70 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Structureofexternaldebtdoesn year Chart5.11aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Externaldebtbreakdown Privatevs Public Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities

8%

92%

09YE

13%

15%

20%

20%

87%

85%

80%

80%

10YE

11YE

12YE

13/2Q

Source: Bank of Thailand


otchangemuchfromendoflast

Chart5.11b– Externaldebtbreakdown LongͲTermvs ShortͲTerm Long term Short term

44%

56%

09YE

50%

50%

10YE

45%

46%

46%

55%

54%

54%

11YE

12YE

13/2Q

71 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Capabilitytorepayexternaldebt concernasdebtserviceratioislo Chart5.12aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Internationalreserves As%ofSTexternaldebt

418% 370% 340%

330%

299% 266%

08YE

09YE

10YE

11YE

12YE

13/2Q

Note: (*) Debt service payment / Export of goods and services

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


deterioratedbutnotyeta owandreservesathealthylevel Chart5.12bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Debtserviceratio* Percent

8.2% 7.6%

4.7%

4.2% 3.4%

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

3.4%

12FY

13/2Q

72 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


NetInternationalreservesdecrea stillconsideredexcessive Chart5.13aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Internationalreserveslevel* Attheendofperiod,BillionUSD

54.4

55.9

2004

2005

106.5

118.0

2007

2008

73.9

2006

Chart5.13bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Internationalreservesasnumbe

9.1 6.9

2004

5.7

2005

6.9

2006

2007

7.9

2008

Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


asedslightlysofarthisyearbut

191.7

206.4

205.8

191.5

2011

2012

Aug-13

154.1

0

8

2009

2010

erofmonthsofimport** 13.8

12.6 10.8

8

2009

the last 12 months

2010

2011

10.0

2012

9.0

Aug-13

73 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


THBdepreciated0.3%againstkey

Chart5.17a– NominalEffectiveExchangeRate 2007=100

114.0

Bahtappreciates

112.0

110.0

108.0

106.0

MͲoͲM

104.0

Ͳ0.3%

102.0

100.0

YͲoͲY

+3.0%

Bahtdepreciates Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-13

98.0

96.0 Sep-13

Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


ycurrenciesinSeptember

e

0

0

0

0

Chart5.17b– YͲoͲYchangeinFXrate* Percentagechangeinavg.sellingrateasofSep30th 2013 EURͲ42.6651

6.3

KRWͲ0.0293

5.8

CNYͲ5.2053

4.6

USDͲ31.533

1.8

0

GBPͲ51.0673

1.2

0

TWDͲ1.0675

1.1

0

VNDͲ0.0015

0

MXNͲ2.3998

-0.6

SGDͲ25.2121

-0.7

0.0

PHPͲ0.7367

-2.0

MYRͲ9.804

-4.0

AUDͲ29.4806

-9.4

INRͲ0.5357 IDRͲ2.9158

-14.0 -16.8

JPYͲ32.4228 -19.3 Bahtappreciates

Bahtdepreciates 74

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


130930 emag eng split  
Advertisement
Read more
Read more
Similar to
Popular now
Just for you