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Charting Thailand’s Economy® www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com 19th issue: กันยายน 2556

Original featured photo from http://freestock.ca/flags_maps_g80-thailand_grunge_flag_p1107.html

ตรวจสุขภาพ เศรษฐกิจไทย รายเดือน • • • • • • •

จีดีพีไตรมาสสองนาผิดหวัง การบริโภค การผลิต ชะลอตัว การจางงานยังสูง เงินเฟอต่ํา สงออกยังทรุด ดุลงบประมาณรัฐบาลดีขึ้น และดัชนีอื่นๆอีกครบถวน ภาษาไทย

ISSN: 2286‐6132 


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ChartingThailand’sEconomy®ѯюѶ ь

њѥіѝѥіѠѧѯјѶзъіѠьѧзѝіҙ ѥѕѯчѪѠьіѬюѰээѲўєҕъ Ѩѷ Җ Ѳндіѥђђѧ зєѥѠыѧэѥѕзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳюеѠк ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ њѥкшјѥчъѫдѵњѤьъѨѷ 5 еѠк ѯчѪѠь

Ѩ ъѨє ѝѼѥўіѤэєѪѠѠѥнё ѷ з Ѩ њѥєлѼѥѯюѶ ьш ҖѠк шѧчшѥєѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьуѥьѣѝњҕ ьўьѩкѷ еѠккѥьѠѕѬѰ ҕ ј Җњ зѫцѝѥєѥіщьѼ ѥнѥіҙш Җ еѠкѯіѥѳюѲнѲькѥьеѠкзѫ цѳч ҖъѤьъѨ ѯёѨѕкѰзҕзц ѫ эѠдѰўјҕкъѨє ѷ ѥѰјѣѳєҕ ьѼ ѥѳючѤчѰюјк

Ѫѷ њҕѥдѥішѧчшѥєзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳюеѠк ѯіѥѯнѠ ѯћіќудѧлѱчѕіњє ѯюѶ ьѯіѪѠ ѷ кѝѼѥзѤръѨл ѷ ѣш ҖѠкєѨ зњѥєзіѠэзјѫєъѫдѵч Җѥь ѰјѣдѶш ҖѠккҕѥѕшҕѠ Ѥ дѥіъѼѥзњѥєѯе ҖѥѲл ѰшҕѲьѝщѥьдѥіцҙюѤллѫэь ъѨе ѷ ҖѠєѬјъѨѯѷ іѥѳч ҖіѤэдјѤэј ҖьѯдѧьѰјѣюѣюьдѤь ъѤкѸ зњѥєѯўѶьъѤкѸ е ҖѠѯъѶлліѧкльъѼѥѲў ҖѕѥдъѨл ѷ ѣ лѤэѲлзњѥє

ѝѼѥўіѤэьѤдыѫідѧлўіѪѠяѬ ҖюіѣдѠэдѥі ьѨз ѷ Ѡ Ѫ ѷ ѣнњҕ ѕѲў Җзѫц Ѱўјҕке ҖѠєѬјзњѥєіѬ ҖъѨл юіѣўѕѤчѯњјѥѲьдѥішѥєѯћіќудѧл ўіѪѠ Ѱє ҖдіѣъѤѷкѯюѶ ьъѨѠ ѷ ҖѥкѠѧкюіѣлѼѥ зѠєёѧњѯшѠіҙеѠкзѫцѲьѯіѪѠ ѷ кѯћіќудѧл ѳъѕ

ҕ ьѤь ч Җњѕзњѥєѯе ҖѥѲлѯнь Ѹ ѯіѥеѠѠѥѝѥьѼ ѥѯѝьѠ њѧыў Ѩ ьѩкѷ ъѨл ѷ ѣнњҕ ѕѲў Җъҕѥьѯе ҖѥѲлзњѥєѯюѶ ьѳю еѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѳч Җкҕѥѕѵ ѯўєѪѠьѳч ҖѠҕѥьяј шіњлѝѫеѓѥёѯћіќудѧліѥѕѯчѪѠь ъѨѯѷ ь Җь е ҖѠѯъѶлліѧкѯюѶ ьёѪь Ѹ уѥь ѯіѥўњѤкњҕѥлѣѯюѶ ьюіѣѱѕньҙѰдҕъѥҕ ьѳч Җ Ѱјѣщ Җѥ ѧ ѳч ҖъѨѷ ъҕѥьѠѕѥдѯіѨѕьіѬ Җѯёѧє ѷ ѯшѧєдѶѯіѨѕьѯнр

ѩ ќѥіњєщѩкяѬ ҖъѨѷ ѝѼѥўіѤэьѤдѯіѨѕььѤдћд ѩ ќѥч ҖњѕшьѯѠк ьѨз ћд ѷ Ѡ Ѫ ѰўјҕкѯіѨѕьіѬ ҖъѨѷ зѫцлѣѳч ҖёэдѤэњѧыд Ѩ ѥіѯіѨѕьіѬ ҖѰјѣъѼѥ зњѥєѯе ҖѥѲліѣээѯћіќудѧлѳъѕъѨѯѷ юѶ ь іѣээѰјѣѝі Җѥкѝіізҙ іњєѳющѩкѱѠдѥѝѲь дѥіѰјдѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьзњѥєіѬ ҖѲьўєѬя ҕ Ѭ ҖъѨѝ ѷ ьѲл ѯіѪѠ ѷ кѯћіќудѧлѳъѕ

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com

ChartingThailand’sEconomy чѼѥѯьѧьдѥіѱчѕэіѧќѤънѥіҙшѯєзѯдѠіҙлѼѥдѤч

лчъѣѯэѨѕьѯјеъѨѷ 0135555002491 ъѨѠ ѷ ѕѬ:ҕ 19ўєѬҕ 11,щььјѼѥјѬддѥ шѼѥэјјѼѥјѬддѥ ѠѼѥѯѓѠјѼѥјѬддѥ юъѫєыѥьѨ 12150 Ѥ ъҙ:+6629870919,ѱъіѝѥі:+6629870917, ѱъіћё Email:admin@chartingthailandeconomy.com


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ѯіѨѕьъҕѥьяѬ ҖѠҕѥь, ўјѤклѥдєѨдѥіѯяѕѰёіҕшњѤ ѯјелѨчё Ѩ о Ѩ кѩѷ щѪѠѯюѶ ьўѤњѲлеѠкчѤньѨѯћіќудѧлдѶњѥҕ ѳч Җ ѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ ѠкеѠкюѨ 2013 дѶєд Ѩ іѣѰѝеҕѥњіњєъѤкѸ е ҖѠщдѯщѨѕкдѤьњҕѥ юіѣѯъћѳъѕдѼѥјѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьнњҕ кѝѓѥњѣѯћіќудѧлщчщѠѕўіѪѠѳєҕ Cover story ѷ ѥъѨѳѷ юеѠкзѼѥ еѠкѯіѥѲьмэѤэьѨл Ѹ кѩ еѠнњьъҕѥьяѬ ҖѠҕѥьєѥъѼѥзњѥєѯе ҖѥѲлщѩкъѨє њҕѥѯћіќудѧлщчщѠѕ іњєщѩкшіњлѝѠэщѩкѝѓѥњѣеѠкѯћіќудѧлюѤ ллѫэь Ѥ њҕѥѯе Җѥ еҕѥѕ “щчщѠѕ” ўіѪѠѳєҕ ѰьҕьѠьњҕѥѝѼѥўіѤэ Charting Thailand’s Economy ѯіѥшіњлѝѠэшѧчшѥє ҕ чѤньѨѯћіќудѧлъѨѝ ѷ ѼѥзѤреѠкѳъѕѠѕѬѯҕ юѶ ьюіѣлѼѥѠѕѬѰ ҕ ј Җњ ѰјѣѲьмэѤэьѨд Ѹ Ѷѯнь ѯзѕдѤэдѥіѝѰдьѯћіќудѧлѳъѕъѫдѰкҕъд ѫ єѫє яєўњѤкњҕѥъҕѥьлѣѳч ҖюіѣѱѕньҙлѥдэіѧдѥіеѠкѯіѥ Ѱј ҖњёэдѤьмэѤэўь ҖѥзіѤэ

ѧ ѝѥѱін зкзѥюіѣѯѝіѧуѝь эііцѥыѧдѥіэіѧўѥі Editor@chartingthailandeconomy.com

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œ™¬¥ºž»nœ¥¶­´¥ ƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ— ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѯшѧэѱшѯёѨѕк 2.8% ѲьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥі ѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝѰіддњҕѥзіѩкѷ іѥѕлҕѥѕўјѤдъѨд ѷ іѣшѫ ҖьдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳші єѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓзѯѠднь Ѱјѣдѥіјкъѫь ѲьѐѤѷ кдѥіяјѧшдѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў Җ дѥіѯшѧэѱшшѼѥѷ ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з.яјяјѧшѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰјѣѯдќші јчјклѥдъѤкѸ ѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь ҖѥѰјѣ нњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ ѰѝчкщѩкдѥіјчјкеѠкдѥіяјѧш ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕ Ѥ рѥцдѥінѣјѠшѤњѯіѧє Ѥ ѯльеѩь ѝр ѷ нч Ѹ ѱчѕчѤньѨдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱјѣдѥі јкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь шҕѥкјчјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь Җѥ дѥіјкъѫьѱчѕшіклѥдшюъ.дѶ ҕ ѯчѨѕњдѤь ѝњҕ ьѓѥзѠѝкѤ ўѥіѧєъіѤёѕҙѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨѲьнњҕ къѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥеѠкюѨ ьѨѸ ѯнь Ѥ рѥцюѤ рўѥнч Ѥ ѯльѱчѕѲь 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ѝкҕ ѠѠдѳч Җ дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѯіѧє ѷ ѝкҕ ѝр јчјк ецѣъѨд ѷ ѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥдѶѯіѧє ѷ шѧчјэлѥддѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥњѤшщѫчэ ѧ ъѨј ѷ чјк ч Җѥь ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯшѧэѱшѳч ҖчѨѯшѧэѱшѝѬкщѩк 20% лѥднњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ дѠ ҕ ь єѠкѳюе Җѥкўь Җѥьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧьѯь Җьдіѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшъѥкѯћіќудѧл ѱчѕѠѤшіѥ чѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ ьѱѕэѥѕѕѤкзкѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 2.5% ѠѕҕѥкѳідѶчѲѨ ьч ҖѥььѱѕэѥѕдѥізјѤкєѨдѥіѲн Җ Ѫѷ єѤѷьеѠкѓѥзыѫідѧлѰѕҕ лҕѥѕјчјкѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ зњѥєѯнѠ ҕ ѯчѨѕњдѤьдѤэ јкѱчѕѓѥзыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯнь яѬ Җэіѧѱѓз ѲьѯчѪѠьјҕѥѝѫчѝѼѥьѤдкѥьѯћіќудѧлдѥізјѤкѰјѣѝѓѥёѤхьҙѢшҕѥкюіѤэјчюіѣєѥц дѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьюѨ ьј ѨѸ к ъѼѥѲў ҖюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙіњєѠѕѬҕ іѣўњҕѥк 4.05-4.50% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.7-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014


ƒ´¥Šn´‰‰´›Ã§²ƒ´¥ƒ¥²Š´¤¥´¤Æ–n ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 0.55% ѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯеш ѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥњҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ іѥѕѳч ҖшҕѠўѤњеѠкѳъѕѠѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъѨѷ 102 еѠкѱјд зьѳъѕѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ лѣєѨ іѥѕѳч Җь ҖѠѕдњҕѥзьлѨьѱчѕѯмјѨѕ ѷ ѠѕѬѯҕ јѶдь ҖѠѕ ѰшҕлѣєѨіѥѕѳч ҖєѥддњҕѥзьѠѧьѯчѨѕ ѷ щѩкдњҕѥѝѥєѯъҕѥдѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэ ѱчѕѯмјѨѕ Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч ҖѱчѕіњєчѨеь ъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲь Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ Җь дъє. лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥ юјѠчўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

¬˜·¤¥¢´ ™´‰Âª¥«’ƒ¶Š ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёъѥкіѥзѥщѪѠњҕѥчѨєѥд ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюјчјкѯюѶ ь 1.59% Ѱјѣѯкѧь ѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 0.75% ѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшєѨѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠѯёѨѕк 0.1% Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѯюѶ ь ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѰѕҕјкѱчѕѝч ѷ еѩь Ѹ 15.7% ѲьчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥѝѬкєѥд ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч Җѯёѧє ѯјѶдь ҖѠѕѲьѳшієѥѝъѨѝ ѷ Ѡк ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѰѕҕјк ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕѱчѕчѫјкэюіѣєѥцдјѤэєѥѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѰѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 Ѹ юъ. ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ѯьѪѠ ѷ кєѥлѥддѥіеѥччѫјэѤрнѯѨ чѧьѝѣёѤч ўьѨш ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкщѩк 1.6% ѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѝдѫјѯкѧь шҕѥкѵѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

8

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š­¦»žŸ¼o ¦·��µ¦

ƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—

ƒ´¥ƒ¥²Š´¤ ¥´¤Æ–n

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• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѯшѧэѱшѯёѨѕк 2.8% Ѳьѳ зіѩкѷ Ͳ іѥѕлҕѥѕўјѤдъѨд ѷ іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэ ѯѠднь Ѱјѣдѥіјкъѫь Ͳ ѲьѐѤѷ кдѥіяјѧшдѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠ • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰј • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ • дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѲьнњҕ къѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥеѠкюѨ шч ѧ ј • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшѱчѕ • ѓѥзыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє іњєщк • ѝѼѥьѤдкѥьѯћіќудѧлдѥізјѤкѰјѣѝѓѥё ьѨј Ѹ к ъѼѥѲў ҖюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙіњєѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњ

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 0.55% Ѳь њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюѰјѣѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬѲҕ ѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.59% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥь 0.75% • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѰѕҕјкѯјѶдь ѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч ҖјчјкѲьѳ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѰѕ шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ


ѝѥіэѤр

ѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝѰіддњҕѥ

ўь Җѥ 15

эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў ҖдѥіѯшѧэѱшшѼѥѷ ѣѯдќші јчјклѥдъѤкѸ ѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь ҖѥѰјѣнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ Ѥ ѯль ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь нѣјѠшѤњѠѕҕѥкнч э дѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥнѣјѠшѤњ ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк ѕзкчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ шѼѥѷ ецѣъѨіѷ ѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢўчшѤњјк кяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ёѤхьҙѢшҕѥкюіѤэјчюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьюѨ њҕѥк 4.05-4.50% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.7-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

18 24 32 39 42 45

ьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

48

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

55

ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ѰјѣјчјкѠѕҕѥкшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳю ѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшѰъэѳєҕєѯѨ кѧьѯђҖ Ѡ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥ ь ҖѠѕѱчѕѝч ѳшієѥѝѰід ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјк эюіѣєѥцдјѤэєѥѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣ

61

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

78

51

65 71

9


Á«¦¬“„·‹Åš¥Á˜·Ã˜Á¡¸¥Š 2.8% Ĝئ¤ ئ¤µ­Â¦„„ªnµ‡¦¹ŠÉ Œ´¥q— 1.05 –ƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—„¯‰Š·–· ·Å›¯–·— % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ 7.1% 6.3% 5.3% 4.6%

CAGR* 2001Ͳ2012 =4.3% 2.2%

5.1% 5.0%

2.5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200

Note:(*)CumulativeAnnualGrowthRate Source:NESDB;CTEanalysis


µ­­°Š…°Šž¸ Ž¹ÉŠ˜ÎµÉ „ªnµ°´˜¦µ„µ¦Á˜·Ã˜Äœ

7.8% 6.5% 5.4%

2.8%

5%

0.1%

-2.3%

08 2009 2010 2011 2012

1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13

10

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„µ¦³¨°˜´ª…°Š£µ‡°»˜­µ®„¦¦¤¥´Š‡ŠÁžÈ š¸­É °Š˜ÎµÉ

Œ´¥q— 1.06a – ƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—„¯‰Š·–· ·–n´›ƒ´¥ž§¶— 2Q13 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ 2.8

GDP

14.2

Hotel&Res Othersocial

10.6

Financial

10.3 7.5

Transport

6.6

Education Construction

5.0

Health&Social

4.9

PrivateHH

4.1

RealEstate

3.9 3.4

PublicAdmin Trading

2.9

Mining

2.9

Utilities

2.7 1.5

Agriculture Manufacture Fishing -7.9

Source:NESDB;CTEanalysis

-1.0


žœ­nªœ­Îµ‡´š¸šÉ εĮo„µ¦Á˜·Ã˜ÄœÅ˜¦¤µ­

3

Œ´¥q— 1.06b – ž§ƒ¥²™œ—m¯ƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—„¯‰Š·–· · 2Q13 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠклѨчё Ѩ іѨ њєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѓѥзшҕѥкѵ 2.8

GDP 0.7

Transport

0.6

Hotel&Res

0.5

Financial

0.4

Trading

0.2

Othersocial Education

0.2

RealEstate

0.2

Construction

0.1

Utilities

0.1

Agriculture

0.1

PublicAdmin

0.1

Mining

0.1

Health&Social

0.1

PrivateHH

0.0

Fishing Manufacture

-0.1 -0.4

11

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¦µ¥‹n µ¥®¨´„š¸É„¦³˜»œo „µ¦Á˜·Ã˜…°Š‹¸ —¸¡Ä¸ Œ´¥q— 1.08a – ƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—„¯‰Š·–· ·–n´›¥´¤Šm´¤ 2Q13 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ

GDP

2.8

G

5.8

I

5.2

I(capital)

4.5

ͲM X C

4.1

2.8

2.4

Note: (*) C = дѥіэіѧѱѓзѯѠднь, I = дѥіјкъѫь ѰэҕкѯюѶ ь I (capital) = дѥіѝѣѝєъѫь Ѱјѣ I (inve ѧ з ҖѥѰјѣэіѧдѥі (іњєіѥѕѳч ҖлѥддѥіъҕѠкѯъѨѕ G = дѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзіѤу, X = дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѝь ѷ њ

Source:NESDB;CTEanalysis


Ĝئ¤µ­­°Š…°Šž¸ œ¸Ê ¤µ‹µ„„µ¦­nŠ°°„ Œ´¥q— 1.08b –ž§ƒ¥²™œ—m¯ƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—„¯‰Š·–· · 2Q13 % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠклѨчё Ѩ іѨ њєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдіѥѕлҕѥѕшҕѥкѵ

GDP

2.8

X

2.1

C

1.3

I(capital)

1.1

G

0.6

I(Inventory)

0.2

Discrpncy ͲM

0.0

-2.5

ѧ з ҖѥзкѯўјѪѠ entory) = дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкеѠкѝь ѧ з ҖѥѰјѣэіѧдѥі (іњєіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіѳюѯъѨѕ њ), M = дѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥѝь ѷ њшюъ.)

12

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


š­¦»žŸ¼o ¦·®µ¦

ƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—

ƒ´¥ƒ¥²Š´¤ ¥´¤Æ–n

¬˜·¤¥¢´ 

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѯшѧэѱшѯёѨѕк 2.8% Ѳьѳ зіѩкѷ Ͳ іѥѕлҕѥѕўјѤдъѨд ѷ іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэ ѯѠднь Ѱјѣдѥіјкъѫь Ͳ ѲьѐѤѷ кдѥіяјѧшдѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠ • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰј • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ • дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѲьнњҕ къѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥеѠкюѨ шч ѧ ј • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшѱчѕ • ѓѥзыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє іњєщк • ѝѼѥьѤдкѥьѯћіќудѧлдѥізјѤкѰјѣѝѓѥё ьѨј Ѹ к ъѼѥѲў ҖюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙіњєѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњ

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 0.55% Ѳь њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюѰјѣѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬѲҕ ѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.59% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥь 0.75% • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѰѕҕјкѯјѶдь ѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч ҖјчјкѲьѳ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѰѕ шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ


ѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝѰіддњҕѥ

эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў ҖдѥіѯшѧэѱшшѼѥѷ ѣѯдќші јчјклѥдъѤкѸ ѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь ҖѥѰјѣнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ Ѥ ѯль ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь нѣјѠшѤњѠѕҕѥкнч э дѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥнѣјѠшѤњ ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк ѕзкчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ шѼѥѷ ецѣъѨіѷ ѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢўчшѤњјк кяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ёѤхьҙѢшҕѥкюіѤэјчюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьюѨ њҕѥк 4.05-4.50% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.7-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

ьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ѰјѣјчјкѠѕҕѥкшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳю ѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшѰъэѳєҕєѯѨ кѧьѯђҖ Ѡ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥ ь ҖѠѕѱчѕѝч ѳшієѥѝѰід ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјк эюіѣєѥцдјѤэєѥѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣ

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

13


Ÿ¨Ÿ¨·˜£µ‡°»˜­µ®„¦¦¤¥´Š‡Šž¦´˜´ª¨—¨ Á—¸¥ª„´œ…°Šž¸ š¸ÂÉ ¨oª Œ´¥q— 1.11 – –³Œ›·ž§ž§¶—¯º—¬´­ƒ¥¥£ (2000 = 100) CAGR

4.3%

194.2 174.8 152.1

161.1

182.6 170.0

138.6 124.2

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source:TheOfficeofIndustrialEconomics


¨Š˜n°Áœº°É Šš´ÊŠ‹µ„Á—º°œ„n°œ®œoµÂ¨³nªŠ

‹§·Ê¤¥´¤Â–¹¯› 250.0

200.0

177.7 181.6

2012

2013

150.0

100.0

MͲoͲM Ͳ3.3% YͲoͲY Ͳ4.5%

50.0

0.0

2011 2012

J F M A M J J A S O N D

14

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


ĜÁ—º°œ„.‡. °»˜­µ®„¦¦¤­nªœÄ®nŸ¨Ÿ¨· Œ´¥q— 1.12a – –³Œ›·ž§ž§¶—¥´¤¯º—¬´­ƒ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, д.з. 2013

16

Electrical 10.6

Petroleum 4.7

Woodproducts

2.8

Electronic

2.1

Mineral

0.4

Metalproducts Apparel

-1.2

Textiles

-1.3 -2.9

Chemical Rubber&Plastic

-5.0

Paper

-5.1

Vehicles

-5.6 -6.3

BasicMat Tobacco

-7.1

Officeautomate

-7.3 -9.1

TransportEquip Food&Bev

-10.2

Precisioninstru

-10.6

Machineries Leather

-11.6 -13.5

Furniture -16.6

Source:TheOfficeofIndustrialEconomics;CTEanalysis


˜¨—¨Š‹µ„nªŠÁ—¸¥ª„´œ…°Šž¸ „n°œ Œ´¥q— 1.12b – –³Œ›·ž§ž§¶—¥´¤¯º—¬´­ƒ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, д.з. 2013

6.1

10.3 23.4 7.6 2.4 -0.4 -2.6 -10.0 0.4 1.0 0.2 5.0 -8.7 -2.7 7.5 -9.7 -7.5 -5.0 8.4 -9.8 -8.8 5.5

15

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


°´˜¦µ„µ¦Äo„µÎ ¨´Š„µ¦Ÿ¨·˜¨—¨ŠÁ¨È„œo°¥Äœ Œ´¥q— 1.13a – ¯³—¥´ƒ´¥ÅŒnƒ´Ï §³‰ƒ´¥ž§¶—Ä–¤¥©£ % еѠкдѼѥјѤкдѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ ўєч 100% 90% 80% 70%

64.6%

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13

Source:TheOfficeofIndustrialEconomics


œÁ—º°œ„.‡. Œ´¥q— 1.13b – ¯³—¥´ƒ´¥ÅŒnƒ´Ï §³‰ƒ´¥ž§¶—¥´¤¯º—± % еѠкдѼѥјѤкдѥіяјѧшъѤкѸ ўєч, д.з. 2013 Precisioninstru Vehicles Chemical Electrical Petroleum Machineries Mineral TransportEquip Paper Rubber&Plastic Electronic Metalproducts Officeautomate Tobacco BasicMat Food&Bev Apparel Textiles Furniture Leather Woodproducts

125% 95% 91% 89% 79% 78% 77% 77% 71% 66% 61% 61% 56% 50% 49% 48% 48% 44% 31% 26% 22%

16

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


°´˜¦µ„µ¦…¥µ¥˜´ª…°ŠŸ¨Ÿ¨·˜°»˜­µ®„¦¦¤ Á«¦¬“„·‹­Îµ‡´…°ŠÃ¨„ Œ´¥q— 1.14 – –³Œ›·ž§ž§¶—¯º—¬´­ƒ¥¥£ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, јҕѥѝѫч PhilippinesͲJun ChinaͲJul VietnamͲAug PakistanͲMay AustraliaͲQ1 IndonesiaͲJun MalaysiaͲJun BrazilͲJun SingaporeͲJul TaiwanͲJul USͲJul HongKongͲQ1 EuroAreaͲJun -0.8

RussiaͲJul -2.2

IndiaͲJun

-2.6

SouthKoreaͲJun ThailandͲJul

-4.5

JapanͲJun

-4.6

Source:TheEconomist


¤…°ŠÅš¥˜ÎµÉ Á„º°š¸­É »—Á¤º°É Áš¸¥„´

10.0 9.7 4.4 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.1 1.4 0.5 0.3

17

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


ĜÁ—º°œ„.‡. Ÿ¨Ÿ¨·˜£µ‡Á„¬˜¦ž¦´˜´ª¨— ž¸ š¸ÂÉ ¨oª Œ´¥q— 1.10 – –³Œ›·ƒ´¥ž§¶—¢´†Âƒ«—¥ (2005 = 100) CAGR

3.1%

106.1

113.4 112.9 109.7 111.5

100.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source:OfficeofAgriculturalEconomics,MinistryofAgriculturea


—¨Š‹µ„š´ÊŠÁ—º°œ„n°œÂ¨³nªŠÁ—¸¥ª„´œ…°Š

‹§·Ê¤¥´¤Â–¹¯› 250.0

123.2

127.1

200.0

YͲoͲY Ͳ2.7% MͲoͲM Ͳ15.6%

150.0

2012

100.0

2013

50.0

0.0

2011 2012

andCooperatives

J F M A M J J A S O N D

18

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


š­¦»žŸ¼o ¦·®µ¦

ƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—

ƒ´¥ƒ¥²Š´¤ ¥´¤Æ–n

¬˜·¤¥¢´ 

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѯшѧэѱшѯёѨѕк 2.8% Ѳьѳ зіѩкѷ Ͳ іѥѕлҕѥѕўјѤдъѨд ѷ іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэ ѯѠднь Ѱјѣдѥіјкъѫь Ͳ ѲьѐѤѷ кдѥіяјѧшдѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠ • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰј • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ • дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѲьнњҕ къѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥеѠкюѨ шч ѧ ј • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшѱчѕ • ѓѥзыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє іњєщк • ѝѼѥьѤдкѥьѯћіќудѧлдѥізјѤкѰјѣѝѓѥё ьѨј Ѹ к ъѼѥѲў ҖюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙіњєѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњ

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 0.55% Ѳь њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюѰјѣѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬѲҕ ѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.59% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥь 0.75% • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѰѕҕјкѯјѶдь ѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч ҖјчјкѲьѳ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѰѕ шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ


ѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝѰіддњҕѥ

эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў ҖдѥіѯшѧэѱшшѼѥѷ ѣѯдќші јчјклѥдъѤкѸ ѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь ҖѥѰјѣнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ Ѥ ѯль ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь нѣјѠшѤњѠѕҕѥкнч э дѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥнѣјѠшѤњ ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк ѕзкчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ шѼѥѷ ецѣъѨіѷ ѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢўчшѤњјк кяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ёѤхьҙѢшҕѥкюіѤэјчюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьюѨ њҕѥк 4.05-4.50% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.7-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

ьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ѰјѣјчјкѠѕҕѥкшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳю ѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшѰъэѳєҕєѯѨ кѧьѯђҖ Ѡ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥ ь ҖѠѕѱчѕѝч ѳшієѥѝѰід ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјк эюіѣєѥцдјѤэєѥѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣ

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

19


—´œ¸„µ¦¦·Ã£‡Á°„œ¨—¨ŠÁ¨È„œo°¥‹µ„š ¨oª Œ´¥q— 1.15 – –³Œ›·ƒ´¥œ¥¶Ä¢†Â¯ƒŒ› (2000 = 100)

CAGR

3.2%

111.2

117.8

126.2 121.9 124.2

130.6

134.2 127.2

03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1

Note:(*)seasonallyadjusted

Source:BankofThailand


š´ÊŠÁ—º°œ„n°œ®œoµÂ¨³nªŠÁ—¸¥ª„´œ…°Šž¸ š¸É

‹§·Ê¤¥´¤Â–¹¯› 160.0

147.0

155.0

139.2

11-Avg 12-Avg

150.0

2013

2012 145.0

140.0

MͲoͲM Ͳ0.5%

135.0

YͲoͲY Ͳ0.7%

130.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

20

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


„µ¦¦·Ã£‡Á˜·Ã˜°¥nµŠš´ªÉ ™¹ŠÄœnªŠš¸ŸÉ nµœ¤ Á—º°œ¨nµ­»— Œ´¥q— 1.16a – ¥´¤Šm´¤ƒ´¥œ¥¶Ä¢†™·Ê¬Ï´†³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 PassengerCar(Unit) 11.1

NGV(kg.)*

10.0

Benzene&Gasohol(litre) Realimportofconsumergoods(2000 prices,US$)

6.7

CommercialCar(Unit)

5.8

HHelectricity(kilowatt/hour)

5.1

Diesel(litre)

3.5

LPG(litre)*

3.5

RealVAT(2000prices,baht)

2.9

Motocycle(Unit)

-1.0

Note:(*)figuresare1Ͳmonthdelayed

Source:BankofThailand;CTEanalysis


¤µ…°Šž¸ ¤oªnµ­nªœÄ®n‹³ž¦´¨—¨ŠÄœ Œ´¥q— 1.16b – ¥´¤Šm´¤ƒ´¥œ¥¶Ä¢†™·Ê¬Ï´†³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, д.з. 2013 25.0

0.9 -0.5 4.7 -1.1 -8.6 -0.9 2.0 -0.3 -2.1 1.3

21

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


„µ¦¨Šš»œÂ­—Š­´µ–³¨°˜´ª°¥nµŠ´—Á ĜÁ—º°œ„.‡. Œ´¥q— 1.17 – –³Œ›·ƒ´¥§‰™º›Â¯ƒŒ› (2000 = 100)

CAGR

6.9%

172.1 174.9 175.3 155.8

193.0

183.4 160.8

133.2

03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1

Source:BankofThailand


Á‹œÃ—¥—´œ¸„µ¦¨Šš»œÁ°„œ¨—¨Š˜n°°¸„

‹§·Ê¤¥´¤Â–¹¯› 300.0

2013 250.0

2012 242.1 200.0

210.2

11-Avg 12-Avg

150.0

100.0

MͲoͲM Ͳ0.2%

YͲoͲY Ͳ5.4%

50.0

0.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

22

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


¦µ¥‹n µ¥„µ¦¨Šš»œÁ°„œ­nªœÄ®nÁ˜·Ã˜Äœ ¨ŠoµŠÄœÁ—º°œ¨nµ­»— Œ´¥q— 1.18a – ¥´¤Šm´¤ƒ´¥§‰™º›™·Ê¬Ï´†³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013

Domesticcommercialcar sales(unit)

21.7

13.4

DomesticCementsales(ton)

DomesticMachinerysales* (2000prices,Baht)

7.0

ConstructionAreapermitted (sqm)

ImportofCapitalGoods (2000prices,Baht)

5.0

-2.6

Note:(*)figuresare1Ͳmonthdelayed

Source:BankofThailand;CTEanalysis


œnªŠš¸ŸÉ nµœ¤µ…°Šž¸ ¤oªnµ‹³Á¦·¤É ³¨°˜´ª

Œ´¥q— 1.18b – ¥´¤Šm´¤ƒ´¥§‰™º›™·Ê¬Ï´†³ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, д.з. 2013

-5.2

2.5

-0.2

1.0

0.0

23

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


„µ¦¨Šš»œÃ—¥˜¦Š‹µ„˜žš. ĜnªŠ‡¦¹ŠÉ ¦ „´nªŠÁ—¸¥ª„´œÄœž¸ „n°œ Œ´¥q— 5.14 – ƒ´¥§‰™º›Ä–¤—¥‰Š´ƒ—m´‰¥²Â™ª ј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ

11,331

9,460

9,112 8,547 7,778

4,853

06FY

Source: BOT

07FY

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY


¦„…°Šž¸ œ¸Ê ¤¸¤¼¨‡nµ¨—¨Š„ªnµ‡¦¹ŠÉ Á¤º°É Áš¸¥

ƒ´¥§‰™º›Ä–¤—¥‰Š´ƒ—™.¬²¬£¥´¤Â–¹¯› 8,000 7,000

2012

6,000

7,235

12FY

5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000

2013 0

J

F M A M J

J

A

S O N D

24 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


¤¼¨‡nµ„µ¦¨Šš»œÃ—¥˜¦Š‹µ„˜žš.š¸…É °¦´­ ¤¼¨‡nµ¨—¨Š 10% ‹µ„nªŠÁ—¸¥ª„´œ…°Šž¸ š

Œ´¥q— 5.15 – £»§†m´Ä†¥‰ƒ´¥§‰™º›Ä–¤—¥‰Š´ƒ— ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

CAGR

21.5%

396 351 297 236

08FY

09FY

10FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

Source:BoardofInvestment

11FY


­·š›·Ã¸ °Å°ÄœnªŠ 7 Á—º°œÂ¦„…°Šž¸ œ¸Ê ¤¸ š¸ÂÉ ¨oª

—™.¬º™š¶™·Ê¬£³†¥Â„n´¥³œ¬¶™š¶ ¶Âª«œ·Ä¯Æ¯

648

332

12FY

2012/7M

298

2013/7M

25

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—´œ¸°­´Š®µ¦·¤š¦´¡¥r­nªœÄ®nÁ˜·Ã˜Å—o—¸Äœ

Œ´¥q— 1.19a – –³Œ›·¯¬³‰­´¥¶£™¥³ ¤q % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 6 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠк 2013

38.3

Condounitregistered

18.9

Valueoflandtransaction

6.6

Newhousingunit

Constr.Areainmunicipal

-5.1

Source:BankofThailand;CTEanalysis


œnªŠš¸ŸÉ nµœ¤µÄœž¸ œ¸Ê

Œ´¥q— 1.19b ––³Œ›·¯¬³‰­´¥¶£™¥³ ¤q % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠь, єѧ.ѕ. 2013

148.7

29.1

-48.4

-13.5

26

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


š­¦»žŸ¼o ¦·®µ¦

ƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—

ƒ´¥ƒ¥²Š´¤ ¥´¤Æ–n

¬˜·¤¥¢´ 

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѯшѧэѱшѯёѨѕк 2.8% Ѳьѳ зіѩкѷ Ͳ іѥѕлҕѥѕўјѤдъѨд ѷ іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэ ѯѠднь Ѱјѣдѥіјкъѫь Ͳ ѲьѐѤѷ кдѥіяјѧшдѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠ • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰј • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ • дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѲьнњҕ къѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥеѠкюѨ шч ѧ ј • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшѱчѕ • ѓѥзыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє іњєщк • ѝѼѥьѤдкѥьѯћіќудѧлдѥізјѤкѰјѣѝѓѥё ьѨј Ѹ к ъѼѥѲў ҖюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙіњєѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњ

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 0.55% Ѳь њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюѰјѣѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬѲҕ ѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.59% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥь 0.75% • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѰѕҕјкѯјѶдь ѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч ҖјчјкѲьѳ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѰѕ шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ


ѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝѰіддњҕѥ

эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў ҖдѥіѯшѧэѱшшѼѥѷ ѣѯдќші јчјклѥдъѤкѸ ѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь ҖѥѰјѣнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ Ѥ ѯль ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь нѣјѠшѤњѠѕҕѥкнч э дѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥнѣјѠшѤњ ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк ѕзкчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ шѼѥѷ ецѣъѨіѷ ѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢўчшѤњјк кяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ёѤхьҙѢшҕѥкюіѤэјчюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьюѨ њҕѥк 4.05-4.50% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.7-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

ьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ѰјѣјчјкѠѕҕѥкшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳю ѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшѰъэѳєҕєѯѨ кѧьѯђҖ Ѡ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥ ь ҖѠѕѱчѕѝч ѳшієѥѝѰід ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјк эюіѣєѥцдјѤэєѥѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣ

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

27


„µ¦­nŠ°°„¨—¨ŠÄœnªŠ 7 Á—º°œÂ¦„ ×¥¤ Œ´¥q— 5.05a – ƒ´¥¬m‰¯¯ƒ—´£ƒ§º£ m ¬¶›†n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 Totalexport Metal Forestry Automotive Chemicals Opticalinstru Othermanufacturing PetroͲchemical Furniture Jewellery Electrical Apparels Machinery Toiletries Electronics Agriculture Aircrafts Agroproducts Footware Petroleum Photoinstru Mining Fishery Otherexport ReͲexports

-3.7 17.7 8.1 6.8 6.5 2.8 2.4 1.7 0.8 0.8 -0.2 -0.3 -2.1 -3.1 -6.3 -6.6 -7.1 -7.4 -7.7 -13.9 -18.2 -19.6 -30.3 -52.0 -94.5

Source:BankofThailand;CTEanalysis


¤¸„µ¦­nŠ°°„°ºÉœÇÁžÈ œ˜´ª™nªŠ®¨´„ Œ´¥q— 5.05b – ž§ƒ¥²™œ—m¯ƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—ƒ´¥¬m‰¯¯ƒ ѧ з Җѥшҕѥкѵ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠкдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдіњєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѝь Totalexport Automotive Metal Chemicals PetroͲchemical Othermanufacturing Forestry Opticalinstru Jewellery Furniture ReͲexports Apparels Electrical Footware Toiletries Aircrafts Machinery Mining Photoinstru Fishery Agriculture Petroleum Electronics Agroproducts Otherexport

-3.7 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -1.4

28

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


ĜnªŠ 7 Á—º°œÂ¦„…°Šž¸ ˜¨µ—­nŠ°°„®¨

Œ´¥q— 5.07a – ƒ´¥¬m‰¯¯ƒ—´£¥²Â™ª§´¤™´‰ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠдѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдіњєѲьіѬюѯкѧьэѥъ ѝч 100% = MiddleEast EU Japan NAFTA Restof theworld

᪛ 7.1 (Trilli

᪛ 5.9

᪛ 5.2

᪛ 6.1

᪛ 6.7

5.4

5.7

5.0

4.7

5.1

13.2

11.9

11.3

10.9

9.5

11.3

10.3

10.5

10.7

10.2

12.2

11.7

11.1

11.3

18.4

18.1

17.4

18.1

21.0

21.0

12.7 16.6

EastAsia exͲJapan

18.3

20.1

20.4

ASEAN

22.5

21.3

23.0

24.3

24.7

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

Source:BankofThailand;CTEanalysis


¨´„¤¸ž´®µš»„˜¨µ—¥„ÁªoœÁ¡¸¥Š°µÁŽ¸¥œ

Œ´¥q— 5.07b – ƒ´¥Â§·Ê¤›„¯‰ƒ´¥¬m‰¯¯ƒ 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠк 2013 ѯъѨѕэдѤэ 2012

ion) 0.3%

-3.3%

-7.8%

EU

-4.2%

Restoftheworld

-4.3%

NAFTA

-4.9%

-7.3%

ASEAN

EastAsiaexJapan

MiddleEast

Japan 29

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


„µ¦œÎµÁ…oµ¨—¨ŠÄœnªŠ 7 Á—º°œÂ¦„…°Šž¸ Ÿ¨·˜š¸¨É —¨Š Œ´¥q— 5.09a – ƒ´¥›Ï´Â„n´—´£ƒ§ºm£¬¶›†n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013

-0.4

Totalimport

18

Others

3.0

Consumergoods

Capitalgoods

-2.8

IntermediateͲFuel

-3.4

IntermediateͲNonfuel

-3.8

Source:BankofThailand;CTEanalysis


­µÁ®˜»®¨´„¤µ‹µ„„µ¦œÎµÁ…oµª´˜™»—·„µ¦

8.7

Œ´¥q— 5.09b – ž§ƒ¥²™œ—m¯ƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—„¯‰ƒ´¥›Ï´Â„n´ ѧ з Җѥшҕѥкѵ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ еѠкдѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥіњєъѨє ѷ ѥлѥдѝь

-0.4

Totalimport

2.1

Others

0.2

Consumergoods

Capitalgoods

-0.7

IntermediateͲFuel

-0.7

IntermediateͲNonfuel -1.4

30

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


‹Î µœªœœ´„šn°ŠÁš¸¥É ªÁ¡·¤É …¹Ê œ 20% Ĝ 7 Á— „µ¦Á¡·¤É …¹Ê œÄœ¦³¥³¥µª„ªnµ 2 Ášnµ

Œ´¥q— 5.18 – ŠÏ´›©›†¥³Ë‰Å›ƒ´¥Â„n´£´Å›¥²Â™ªÆ™¤„¯‰› ј ҖѥьзіѤкѸ

CAGR

8.4%

15.9 13.8 10.8

11.7

14.5

14.1

11.5

10.0

03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY Source:DepartmentofTourism


—º°œÂ¦„…°Šž¸ 2013 Ž¹ÉŠ™º°ªnµ­¼Š„ªnµ°´˜¦µ

›³ƒ™m¯‰Â™·Ê¤©—m´‰Œ´—¶ ¤¯–¬²¬£¥´¤Â–¹¯› 25.0

22.3 19.2

Y 11FY 12FY

20.0

2012

15.0

10.0

5.0

2013

0.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

31

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


„µ¦Á¡·¤É …¹Ê œ…°Šœ´„šn°ŠÁš¸¥É ª‹¸ œ‡·—ÁžÈ œ„ªnµ š´ÊŠ®¤—ÄœnªŠš¸ŸÉ nµœ¤µ…°Šž¸ Œ´¥q— 5.19a

ŠÏ´›©›†¥³Ë‰Å›ƒ´¥Â„n´£´„¯‰›³ƒ™m¯‰Â™·Ê¤© Üm‰—´£¬³Œ´—¶ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьеѠкъѤкѸ ўєч ѝч

Restof world

14.3

15.3

15.6

14.7

13.9

Americas

6.2

6.0

5.3

5.0

4.8

26.5

25.2

Europe

27.3

East Asia

28.7

27.9

52.1

50.0

51.2

53.8

56.1

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

Source:DepartmentofTourism;CTEanalysis


µ‡¦¹ŠÉ ®œ¹ŠÉ …°Š„µ¦Á¡·¤É …¹Ê œ…°Šœ´„šn°ŠÁš¸É¥ª Œ´¥q— 5.19b

10 ¯³›–³œ„¯‰¥²Â™ª™·Ê£Š· Ï´›©›ƒ´¥Â„n´£´™m¯‰Â™·Ê¤©Â ¶Ê£ £´ƒ™·Ê¬º–£¹Ê¯Â™·¤œƒ³œŒm©‰Â–·¤©ƒ³›„¯‰d™·Êçn© нњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013, ёѤьзіѤкѸ

1,292.2

China 263.4

Russia Malaysia Japan

% „¯‰ƒ´¥Â ¶Ê£ ™³Ë‰­£–

212.7 121.9

51% 10% 8% 5%

Indonesia

95.4

4%

Singapore

85.6

3%

HongKong

84.1

3%

Korea

81.7

3%

Taiwan

72.1

3%

Vietnam

62.1

2%

32

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


š­¦»žŸ¼o ¦·®µ¦

ƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—

ƒ´¥ƒ¥²Š´¤ ¥´¤Æ–n

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• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѯшѧэѱшѯёѨѕк 2.8% Ѳьѳ зіѩкѷ Ͳ іѥѕлҕѥѕўјѤдъѨд ѷ іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэ ѯѠднь Ѱјѣдѥіјкъѫь Ͳ ѲьѐѤѷ кдѥіяјѧшдѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠ • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰј • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ • дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѲьнњҕ къѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥеѠкюѨ шч ѧ ј • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшѱчѕ • ѓѥзыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє іњєщк • ѝѼѥьѤдкѥьѯћіќудѧлдѥізјѤкѰјѣѝѓѥё ьѨј Ѹ к ъѼѥѲў ҖюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙіњєѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњ

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 0.55% Ѳь њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюѰјѣѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬѲҕ ѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.59% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥь 0.75% • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѰѕҕјкѯјѶдь ѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч ҖјчјкѲьѳ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѰѕ шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ


ѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝѰіддњҕѥ

эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў ҖдѥіѯшѧэѱшшѼѥѷ ѣѯдќші јчјклѥдъѤкѸ ѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь ҖѥѰјѣнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ Ѥ ѯль ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь нѣјѠшѤњѠѕҕѥкнч э дѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥнѣјѠшѤњ ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк ѕзкчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ шѼѥѷ ецѣъѨіѷ ѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢўчшѤњјк кяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ёѤхьҙѢшҕѥкюіѤэјчюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьюѨ њҕѥк 4.05-4.50% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.7-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

ьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ѰјѣјчјкѠѕҕѥкшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳю ѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшѰъэѳєҕєѯѨ кѧьѯђҖ Ѡ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥ ь ҖѠѕѱчѕѝч ѳшієѥѝѰід ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјк эюіѣєѥцдјѤэєѥѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣ

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

33


Ťn¤¸„µ¦Áž¨¸¥É œÂž¨Š°´˜¦µ—°„Á¸Ê ¥ÄœÁ—º°

Œ´¥q— 3.01a – ¯³—¥´–¯ƒÂœ·¤Ë ›Ä¤œ´¤š™. 3.10% 3.00% 2.90% 2.80% 2.70% 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% Aug-13

Sep-12

Œ´¥q— 3.01c – ¯³—¥´–¯ƒÂœ·¤Ë ‰¶›Ÿ´ƒ š. ´•¶Œ¤q 10.00% 7.50% 5.00% Max Min Sep-12 Note:(*)BangkokInterBankOfferRate

Source:BankofThailand

2.50%

0.00% Aug-13


œ­.‡.

Œ´¥q— 3.01b – ¯³—¥´–¯ƒÂœ·¤Ë „n´£†¹› BIBOR*

Sep-12

3.10% 3.00% 2.90% 2.80% 2.70% 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% Aug-13

Œ´¥q— 3.01d – ¯³—¥´–¯ƒÂœ·¤Ë ‰¶›ƒ»§n ƒ » †n´Œ³Ë›–· š. ´•¶Œ¤q Max

10.00% 7.50%

Min 5.00% 2.50%

Sep-12

0.00% Aug-13

34

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


¦µ¥‹n µ¥¦´“µ¨¨—¨ŠÁ„º° 9% ĜnªŠ 7 Á Á—¸¥ª„´œž¸ „n°œ Œ´¥q— – ¥´¤Šm´¤Å›‰œ¥²£´•¬²¬£¥´¤Â–¹¯› ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ 3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

2013 500

0

J

F

M

Source:BankofThailand;CTEanalysis

A

M

J


Á—º°œÂ¦„…°Šž¸ 2013 Á¤º°É Áš¸¥„´nªŠ

2012

J

A

S

O

N

D

35

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


š­¦»žŸ¼o ¦·®µ¦

ƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—

ƒ´¥ƒ¥²Š´¤ ¥´¤Æ–n

¬˜·¤¥¢´ 

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѯшѧэѱшѯёѨѕк 2.8% Ѳьѳ зіѩкѷ Ͳ іѥѕлҕѥѕўјѤдъѨд ѷ іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэ ѯѠднь Ѱјѣдѥіјкъѫь Ͳ ѲьѐѤѷ кдѥіяјѧшдѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠ • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰј • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ • дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѲьнњҕ къѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥеѠкюѨ шч ѧ ј • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшѱчѕ • ѓѥзыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє іњєщк • ѝѼѥьѤдкѥьѯћіќудѧлдѥізјѤкѰјѣѝѓѥё ьѨј Ѹ к ъѼѥѲў ҖюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙіњєѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњ

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 0.55% Ѳь њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюѰјѣѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬѲҕ ѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.59% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥь 0.75% • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѰѕҕјкѯјѶдь ѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч ҖјчјкѲьѳ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѰѕ шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ


ѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝѰіддњҕѥ

эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў ҖдѥіѯшѧэѱшшѼѥѷ ѣѯдќші јчјклѥдъѤкѸ ѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь ҖѥѰјѣнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ Ѥ ѯль ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь нѣјѠшѤњѠѕҕѥкнч э дѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥнѣјѠшѤњ ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк ѕзкчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ шѼѥѷ ецѣъѨіѷ ѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢўчшѤњјк кяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ёѤхьҙѢшҕѥкюіѤэјчюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьюѨ њҕѥк 4.05-4.50% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.7-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

ьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ѰјѣјчјкѠѕҕѥкшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳю ѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшѰъэѳєҕєѯѨ кѧьѯђҖ Ѡ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥ ь ҖѠѕѱчѕѝч ѳшієѥѝѰід ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјк эюіѣєѥцдјѤэєѥѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣ

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

36


‡ªµ¤ÁºÉ°¤´œ›» É ¦„·‹Â¥n¨ŠÃ—¥š´ÊŠ£µ‡›»¦„·‹Â Œ´¥q— 1.21a – –³Œ›·†©´£ÂŒ¹¯Ê £³› Ê šº¥ƒ¶Š* 100

Better

51.2

54.4

50

53.9 48.8

49.9

48.3

Worse

0 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

Note:(*)Belowistheinterpretationoftheindex: Index=50indicatesthatbusinesssentimentremainsstable Index>50indicatesthatbusinesssentimenthasimproved Index<50indicatesthatbusinesssentimenthasworsened

Source:BankofThailand


¨³°»˜­µ®„¦¦¤¤°ŠÄœÂŠn¦µo ¥¤µ„…¹Ê œ Œ´¥q— 1.21b – –³Œ›·†©´£ÂŒ¹¯Ê £³› Ê ¢´†¯º—¬´­ƒ¥¥£** 200

Better

100

95.5

93.5

92.9

94.3

93.1

91.9

Worse

0 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

Note:(*)Belowistheinterpretationoftheindex: Index=100indicatesthatindustriessentimentremainsstable Index>100indicatesthatindustriessentimenthasimproved Index<100indicatesthatindustriessentimenthasworsened

37

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


‡ªµ¤ÁºÉ°¤´œŸ¼ É o ¦·Ã£‡Äœ£µ¡¦ª¤Â¥n¨Š‹µ„ „µ¦¤°ŠÃ¨„ĜŠn¦µo ¥Á¡·¤É …¹Ê œ Œ´¥q— 1.20a – –³Œ›·†©´£ÂŒ¹¯Ê £³› Ê ž»nœ¥¶Ä¢† Overall

100

O

100

Better

Better

50

50 Worse

Worse

0

0 Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Jan-13

Mar-1

(*) єѨзѥҕ ѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњҕѥк 0-100 щ ҖѥчѤньѨѠѕѬѝ ҕ кѬ дњҕѥ 50 ѰѝчкњҕѥяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨзњѥєѯўѶьњҕѥѓѥњдѥіцҙч ҖѥььѤь Ѹ ѵлѣчѨеь ѩѸ щ ҖѥчѤньѨѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэ 50 ѰѝчкњҕѥяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨзњѥєѯўѶьњҕѥѓѥњдѥіцҙч ҖѥььѤь Ѹ ѵѳєҕѯю щ ҖѥчѤньѨѠѕѬѲҕ ьшѼѥѷ дњҕѥ 50 ѰѝчкњҕѥяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѨзњѥєѯўѶьњҕѥѓѥњдѥіцҙч ҖѥььѤь Ѹ ѵлѣѰ

Source: Ministry of Commerce


„Á—º°œ„n°œÂ¨³°¥¼n˜ÎµÉ „ªnµ 50 ­³šo°œ™¹Š

Onjob

Onfutureincome

100

Better 50 Worse

0 3

May-13

Jul-13

Jan-13

ьўіѪѠѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэчѨ јѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјк ўіѪѠъікшѤњѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэюѥьдјѥк ѰѕҕјкўіѪѠѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэѳєҕч Ѩ

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

38

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


š­¦»žŸ¼o ¦·®µ¦

ƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—

ƒ´¥ƒ¥²Š´¤ ¥´¤Æ–n

¬˜·¤¥¢´ 

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѯшѧэѱшѯёѨѕк 2.8% Ѳьѳ зіѩкѷ Ͳ іѥѕлҕѥѕўјѤдъѨд ѷ іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэ ѯѠднь Ѱјѣдѥіјкъѫь Ͳ ѲьѐѤѷ кдѥіяјѧшдѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠ • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰј • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ • дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѲьнњҕ къѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥеѠкюѨ шч ѧ ј • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшѱчѕ • ѓѥзыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє іњєщк • ѝѼѥьѤдкѥьѯћіќудѧлдѥізјѤкѰјѣѝѓѥё ьѨј Ѹ к ъѼѥѲў ҖюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙіњєѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњ

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 0.55% Ѳь њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюѰјѣѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬѲҕ ѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.59% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥь 0.75% • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѰѕҕјкѯјѶдь ѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч ҖјчјкѲьѳ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѰѕ шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ


ѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝѰіддњҕѥ

эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў ҖдѥіѯшѧэѱшшѼѥѷ ѣѯдќші јчјклѥдъѤкѸ ѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь ҖѥѰјѣнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ Ѥ ѯль ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь нѣјѠшѤњѠѕҕѥкнч э дѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥнѣјѠшѤњ ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк ѕзкчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ шѼѥѷ ецѣъѨіѷ ѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢўчшѤњјк кяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ёѤхьҙѢшҕѥкюіѤэјчюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьюѨ њҕѥк 4.05-4.50% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.7-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

ьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ѰјѣјчјкѠѕҕѥкшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳю ѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшѰъэѳєҕєѯѨ кѧьѯђҖ Ѡ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥ ь ҖѠѕѱчѕѝч ѳшієѥѝѰід ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјк эюіѣєѥцдјѤэєѥѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣ

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

39


­Îµœ´„ŠµœÁ«¦¬“„·‹„µ¦‡¨´ŠÂ¨³­£µ¡´•œ …°ŠÁ«¦¬“„·‹Åš¥Äœž¸ œ¸Ê ¨Š Œ´¥q— 1.03a – ¥²£´•ƒ´¥•qƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—„¯‰Š·–· · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ 6.00

5.50

FPO BOT

5.00

NESDB 4.50 The Economist poll

4.00

3.50

3.00 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Forecast as of, month ending

Source:NESDB,FiscalPolicyOffice,BankofThailand,TheEconom


²r ˜nµŠž¦´¨—ž¦³¤µ–„µ¦–r„µ¦Á˜·Ã˜

ist

Œ´¥q— 1.03b – ¥²£´•ƒ´¥•qƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—„¯‰Š·–· · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шҕѠюѨ 6.00

5.50

5.00

BOT

4.50

The Economist poll

4.00

3.50

3.00 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Forecast as of, month ending 40

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


­Îµ®¦´ž¸ 2013 Á«¦¬“„·‹Åš¥™¼„‡µ—„µ¦ ž¦³Áš«­nªœÄ®nĜ°µÁŽ¸¥œ Œ´¥q— 1.04a – ¥²£´•ƒ´¥•qƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—„¯‰Š·–· · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ , ц 31/8/2013 China Philippines Pakistan Indonesia India Vietnam Malaysia Thailand SouthKorea HongKong Australia Taiwan Singapore Russia Brazil Japan US EuroArea -0.6

Source:TheEconomist

7.5 6.4 6.1 5.8 5.5 5.2 4.5 4.4 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.7


¦–rªnµ‹³Á˜·Ã˜­¼Š™¹Š 4.4% Ž¹ÉŠ¥´Š˜ÎµÉ „ªnµ Œ´¥q— 1.04b – ¥²£´•ƒ´¥•qƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—„¯‰Š·–· · ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014, % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјкюѨ шѠ ҕ юѨ , ц 31/8/2013 7.3 6.0 3.5 5.9 6.1 5.5 5.0 4.7 3.4 3.8 2.9 3.0 3.7 3.3 2.6 1.7 2.7 0.8 41

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


š­¦»žŸ¼o ¦·®µ¦

ƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—

ƒ´¥ƒ¥²Š´¤ ¥´¤Æ–n

¬˜·¤¥¢´ 

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѯшѧэѱшѯёѨѕк 2.8% Ѳьѳ зіѩкѷ Ͳ іѥѕлҕѥѕўјѤдъѨд ѷ іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэ ѯѠднь Ѱјѣдѥіјкъѫь Ͳ ѲьѐѤѷ кдѥіяјѧшдѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠ • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰј • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ • дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѲьнњҕ къѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥеѠкюѨ шч ѧ ј • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшѱчѕ • ѓѥзыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє іњєщк • ѝѼѥьѤдкѥьѯћіќудѧлдѥізјѤкѰјѣѝѓѥё ьѨј Ѹ к ъѼѥѲў ҖюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙіњєѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњ

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 0.55% Ѳь њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюѰјѣѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬѲҕ ѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.59% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥь 0.75% • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѰѕҕјкѯјѶдь ѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч ҖјчјкѲьѳ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѰѕ шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ


ѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝѰіддњҕѥ

эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў ҖдѥіѯшѧэѱшшѼѥѷ ѣѯдќші јчјклѥдъѤкѸ ѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь ҖѥѰјѣнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ Ѥ ѯль ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь нѣјѠшѤњѠѕҕѥкнч э дѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥнѣјѠшѤњ ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк ѕзкчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ шѼѥѷ ецѣъѨіѷ ѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢўчшѤњјк кяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ёѤхьҙѢшҕѥкюіѤэјчюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьюѨ њҕѥк 4.05-4.50% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.7-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

ьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ѰјѣјчјкѠѕҕѥкшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳю ѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшѰъэѳєҕєѯѨ кѧьѯђҖ Ѡ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥ ь ҖѠѕѱчѕѝч ѳшієѥѝѰід ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјк эюіѣєѥцдјѤэєѥѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣ

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

42


°´˜¦µ„µ¦ªnµŠŠµœ¨—¨ŠÁžÈ œ 0.55% ĜÁ—º° Œ´¥q— 2.08 – ¯³—¥´ƒ´¥©m´‰‰´› % еѠкдѼѥјѤкѰіккѥьъѤкѸ ўєч

2.16

2.07 1.83 1.51

1.49 1.38

1.38

1.04

03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1

Source:NationalStatisticalOffice,BankofThailand


°œ¤·.¥.

‹§·Ê¤¥´¤Â–¹¯› 1.20

1.00

0.80

2012 0.60

2013

0.40

0.68

0.66

11-Avg 12-Avg

0.20

0.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

43

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


°´˜¦µ„µ¦ªnµŠŠµœÄœž¦³Áš«Åš¥˜ÎµÉ ¤µ„Á¤ Œ´¥q— 2.09 – ¯³—¥´ƒ´¥©m´‰‰´›Å›¥²Â™ª—m´‰È лѥддѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫч, % еѠкдѼѥјѤкѰіккѥьъѤкѸ ўєч ThailandͲJun SingaporeͲQ2 MalaysiaͲJun SouthKoreaͲJul HongKongͲJul VietnamͲ2011 JapanͲJun

0.6 2.1 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.9

ChinaͲQ2

4.1

TaiwanͲJul

4.2

RussiaͲJul BrazilͲJul AustraliaͲJul IndonesiaͲQ1 PakistanͲ2011 USͲJul PhilippinesͲQ2 IndiaͲ2012 EuroAreaͲJun Source:TheEconomist


°Áš¸¥„´ž¦³Áš«°ºÉœ

5.3 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.0 7.4 7.5 9.9 12.1

44

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


š­¦»žŸ¼o ¦·®µ¦

ƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—

ƒ´¥ƒ¥²Š´¤ ¥´¤Æ–n

¬˜·¤¥¢´ 

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѯшѧэѱшѯёѨѕк 2.8% Ѳьѳ зіѩкѷ Ͳ іѥѕлҕѥѕўјѤдъѨд ѷ іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэ ѯѠднь Ѱјѣдѥіјкъѫь Ͳ ѲьѐѤѷ кдѥіяјѧшдѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠ • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰј • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ • дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѲьнњҕ къѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥеѠкюѨ шч ѧ ј • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшѱчѕ • ѓѥзыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє іњєщк • ѝѼѥьѤдкѥьѯћіќудѧлдѥізјѤкѰјѣѝѓѥё ьѨј Ѹ к ъѼѥѲў ҖюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙіњєѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњ

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 0.55% Ѳь њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюѰјѣѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬѲҕ ѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.59% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥь 0.75% • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѰѕҕјкѯјѶдь ѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч ҖјчјкѲьѳ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѰѕ шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ


ѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝѰіддњҕѥ

эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў ҖдѥіѯшѧэѱшшѼѥѷ ѣѯдќші јчјклѥдъѤкѸ ѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь ҖѥѰјѣнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ Ѥ ѯль ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь нѣјѠшѤњѠѕҕѥкнч э дѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥнѣјѠшѤњ ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк ѕзкчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ шѼѥѷ ецѣъѨіѷ ѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢўчшѤњјк кяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ёѤхьҙѢшҕѥкюіѤэјчюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьюѨ њҕѥк 4.05-4.50% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.7-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

ьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ѰјѣјчјкѠѕҕѥкшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳю ѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшѰъэѳєҕєѯѨ кѧьѯђҖ Ѡ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥ ь ҖѠѕѱчѕѝч ѳшієѥѝѰід ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјк эюіѣєѥцдјѤэєѥѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣ

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

45


œªÃœo¤„µ¦„¦³‹µ¥…°Š¦µ¥Å—o×¥¦ª¤—¸…

Œ´¥q— 2.01 –¬³£¥²¬¶™š¶ÎŠ·›·Ê* 0.55

Overall 0.50

South

0.45

0.40

0.35

0.30

'88

'90

'92

'94

'96

'98

Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution

Source:NationalStatisticsOffice,NESDB


…¹Ê œ ˜nĜ„š¤.„¨´Â¥n¨Š

NorthEast North Central Bangkok

'00

'02

'04

'06

'07

'09

'11

of income.

the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.

46

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


„µ¦„¦³‹µ¥…°Š¦µ¥Å—oÁ¤º°É ¤°ŠÄœ°¸„¤»¤ „ Œ´¥q— 2.02 – ¬m©›Ãœm‰¥´¤Æ–n—´£ƒ§º£ m ¥´¤Æ–n ¥n¯¤§²„¯‰¥´¤Æ–n¥²Œ´Œ´—¶ Top20% Bottom20%

11.9

13.3

14.9

14.1

13.5

Top20%

54.4

57.0

59.0

57.2

56.5

Second20%

20.6

19.5

18.9

19.7

19.9

Third20%

12.4

11.7

11.1

11.7

11.8

Forth20%

8.1

7.5

7.4

7.6

Bottom20%

4.6

4.3

7.1 4.0

4.1

4.2

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

5

1


„ÈÁ®ÈœÅ—oªnµ¤¸¡• ´ œµ„µ¦—¸…¹ÊœÂ˜n„ÈŤn¤µ„œ´„

13.1

14.6

13.4

12.2

14.4

12.8

11.8

11.1

56.1

57.5

56.0

54.7

56.0

54.6

54.1

54.2

19.8

19.8

20.1

20.3

20.2

20.5

20.4

19.5

12.0

11.5

12.1

12.5

12.2

12.6

12.7

12.8

7.8

7.7

8.0

7.7

8.0

8.3

8.6

4.3

7.3 4.0

4.2

4.5

3.9

4.3

4.6

4.9

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2007

2009

2011 47

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Á¤º°É Áš¸¥„´ž¦³Áš«„ε¨´Š¡´•œµ—oª¥„´œ ‡ œo°¥„ªnµž¦³Áš«°¥nµŠ¤µÁ¨ÁŽ¸¥ ®¦º°‹¸ œ Œ´¥q— 2.03 – †©´£Â­§¹Ê¯£§ËÏ´–n´›¥´¤Æ–nśħƒ ¥´¤Æ–n„¯‰ƒ§ºm£¥²Œ´ƒ¥™·Ê¥©¤™·Ê¬º– 20% Ã¥ƒ ™·¤œƒ³œ¥´¤Æ–n„¯‰ƒ§ºm£™·ÊŠ›™·Ê¬º– Honduras Bolivia Comoros SouthAfrica Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles CentralAfricanRepublic Paraguay Panama Zambia CostaRica ElSalvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela,RB Mexico Malaysia DominicanRepublic

2 26. 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3

Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis


‡ªµ¤Á®¨º°É ¤¨Îʵ—oµœ¦µ¥Å—o…°ŠÅš¥„È¥Š´

20%, d 2011 ­¥¹¯§m´¬º–

29.7 27.8 .7

Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey RussianFederation Thailand Iran,IslamicRep. SriLanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia LaoPDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt,ArabRep. Pakistan Afghanistan SlovakRepublic

11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6

48

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


š­¦»žŸ¼o ¦·®µ¦

ƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—

ƒ´¥ƒ¥²Š´¤ ¥´¤Æ–n

¬˜·¤¥¢´ 

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѯшѧэѱшѯёѨѕк 2.8% Ѳьѳ зіѩкѷ Ͳ іѥѕлҕѥѕўјѤдъѨд ѷ іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэ ѯѠднь Ѱјѣдѥіјкъѫь Ͳ ѲьѐѤѷ кдѥіяјѧшдѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠ • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰј • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ • дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѲьнњҕ къѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥеѠкюѨ шч ѧ ј • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшѱчѕ • ѓѥзыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє іњєщк • ѝѼѥьѤдкѥьѯћіќудѧлдѥізјѤкѰјѣѝѓѥё ьѨј Ѹ к ъѼѥѲў ҖюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙіњєѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњ

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 0.55% Ѳь њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюѰјѣѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬѲҕ ѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.59% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥь 0.75% • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѰѕҕјкѯјѶдь ѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч ҖјчјкѲьѳ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѰѕ шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ


ѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝѰіддњҕѥ

эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў ҖдѥіѯшѧэѱшшѼѥѷ ѣѯдќші јчјклѥдъѤкѸ ѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь ҖѥѰјѣнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ Ѥ ѯль ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь нѣјѠшѤњѠѕҕѥкнч э дѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥнѣјѠшѤњ ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк ѕзкчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ шѼѥѷ ецѣъѨіѷ ѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢўчшѤњјк кяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ёѤхьҙѢшҕѥкюіѤэјчюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьюѨ њҕѥк 4.05-4.50% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.7-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

ьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ѰјѣјчјкѠѕҕѥкшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳю ѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшѰъэѳєҕєѯѨ кѧьѯђҖ Ѡ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥ ь ҖѠѕѱчѕѝч ѳшієѥѝѰід ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјк эюіѣєѥцдјѤэєѥѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣ

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

49


‹Î µœªœÂ¨³­´—­nªœ‡œ¥µ„‹œ¤¸ÂœªÃœo¤¨— Œ´¥q— 2.04a

Œ´¥q— 2.04b

¬n›†©´£¤´ƒŠ›

ŠÏ´›©›ž»n¤´ƒŠ›

эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠьшҕѠзь

ј Җѥьзь

3,500

25

3,000 20 2,500 15

2,000

1,500

10

1,000 5 500

0

0 '01

'03

'05

'07

'09

Legendcolor:

'11

Overall

'01

'03

Bangkok

'05

Centr

Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conducted every 2 years. For the mi

Source:NESDB


—¨ŠÄœ¦³¥³®¨´Š¥„ÁªoœÁ¡¸¥ŠÄœ„š¤. Œ´¥q— 2.04c

¬³–¬m©›ž»n¤´ƒŠ› % еѠкюіѣнѥдіъѤкѸ ўєч 60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% '07

ral

'09

North

'11

'01

NorthEast

South

'03

'05

'07

ssing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years

'09

'11

50

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


®¨µ¥ž¦³Áš«ÄœÁ°Á¸¥Â¨³Äœ°µÁŽ¸¥œ¥´Š¤ Œ´¥q— 2.05 – †©´£¤´ƒŠ›Å›Ä§ƒ

Ѥ ѝњҕ ьяѬ ҖъѨє ѝч ѷ іѨ ѥѕѳч ҖшѼѥѷ дњҕѥ 2 чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢшҕѠњѤь шҕѠлѼѥьњьюіѣ Congo,Dem.Rep. Madagascar Nigeria Ethiopia Bangladesh TimorͲLeste India

6

LaoPDR 60.2

Pakistan

57.3

Nepal

53.3

Cambodia 46.1

Indonesia

43.4

Vietnam

41.5

Philippines 31.3

SouthAfrica China

29.8

Bhutan

29.8

SriLanka

29.1

Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank

21.4 15.8


¤¸­—´ ­nªœ‡œ¥µ„‹œ­¼Š

ѣнѥді, юѨ јҕѥѝѫч 95.2 92.6 84.5 77.6 76.5 72.8 68.7

66.0

15.4

Egypt,ArabRep. Venezuela,RB

12.9

Peru

12.7 10.8

Brazil

8.0

Iran,IslamicRep. Mexico

5.2

Thailand

4.6

Turkey

4.2

Chile

2.7

Malaysia

2.3

Argentina

1.9

Romania

1.7

Bulgaria

0.4

Hungary

0.4

Montenegro

0.3

Poland

0.2

SlovakRepublic

0.1

Slovenia

0.1

Croatia

0.1

RussianFederation

0.1

51

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


‡œÅš¥Ã—¥ÁŒ¨¸¥É ‹³¤¸¦µ¥Å—oœ°o ¥„ªnµ‡œ‹¸ œ ‡œ°·œÁ—¸¥Ã—¥ÁŒ¨¸¥É ™¹Š„ªnµ­µ¤Ášnµ Œ´¥q— 2.06 – ¥´¤Æ–n—¯m ­³© 2012 ўіѪѠјҕѥѝѫч, чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ Monaco(1) Liechtenstein(2) Bermuda(3) Norway(4) Switzerland(5) Qatar(6) Luxembourg(7) ChannelIslands(8) Denmark(9) Australia(10) Sweden(11) MacaoSAR,China(12) SanMarino(13) Canada(14) UnitedStates(15) IsleofMan(16) Netherlands(17) Austria(18) Japan(19) Singapore(20) Finland(21) Belgium(22) Kuwait(23) Germany(24) Andorra(25)

Source:TheWorldBank

1 106,920 98,860 82,730 78,720 76,960 65,440 59,770 59,570 56,210 55,720 51,470 50,970 50,120 48,550 48,250 48,160 47,870 47,210 46,940 44,990 44,730 44,010 43,110


œÃ—¥ÁŒ¨¸¥É °¥¼nÁ¨È„œo°¥ ˜n¤¸¦µ¥Å—o¤µ„„ªnµ ()=Worldrank 186,950 36,770

France(26) 41,750 Ireland(27) 38,970 UnitedKingdom(29) 38,250 HongKongSAR,… 36,560 BruneiDarussalam… 31,590 Spain(35) 30,110 Greece(39) 23,260 Korea,Rep.(41) 22,670 RussianFederation… 12,700 Malaysia(73) 9,800 Mexico(74) 9,740 Maldives(95) 5,750 China(96) 5,740 Thailand(102) 5,210 Iran,IslamicRep.… 4,290 TimorͲLeste(120) 3,670 Indonesia(124) 3,420 Egypt,ArabRep.(133) 3,000 SriLanka(135) 2,920 Philippines(139) 2,470 Bhutan(140) 2,420 India(149) 1,530 Vietnam(152) 1,400 LaoPDR(157) 1,260 Cambodia(166) 880

52

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˜n™µo čo°˜´ ¦µÂ¨„Áž¨¸¥É œÂ‡ªµ¤ÁšnµÁš parity) ‡œÅš¥‹³¤¸¦µ¥Å—o¤µ„„ªnµ‡œ‹¸ œ Œ´¥q— 2.07 – ¥´¤Æ–n—¯m ­³©†Ï´›©•Ãœœ PPP 2012 ўіѪѠјҕѥѝѫч, ѠѤшіѥѰјдѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰээзњѥєѯъҕѥѯъѨѕєдѤьеѠкѠѼ Qatar(1) MacaoSAR,China(2) Norway(3) Luxembourg(4) Singapore(5) Switzerland(6) HongKongSAR,China(7) UnitedStates(8) BruneiDarussalam(9) Kuwait(10) Netherlands(11) Austria(12) Australia(13) Sweden(14) Canada(15) Denmark(16) UnitedArabEmirates(17) Germany(18) Belgium(19) Finland(20) France(21) Japan(22) UnitedKingdom(23) Ireland(24) Iceland(25)

Source: The World Bank

68

64,03 63,00 61,100 54,870 53,050 50,610 49,370 49,230 43,360 43,220 43,170 43,160 42,690 42,620 42,380 41,370 39,260 38,210 36,460 36,320 35,800 35,110 33,550


š¸¥¤„´œ…°Š°Îµœµ‹ŽºÊ ° (Purchasing power ѪѸ ,чѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ ѥьѥлоѠ

8,710

30

0

84,670

()=Worldrank Italy(26) 32,280 Korea,Rep.(28) 30,890 Israel(32) 28,070 Greece(38) 24,790 RussianFederation… 22,760 Mexico(60) 16,630 Malaysia(61) 16,530 Argentina(75) 11,740 Brazil(76) 11,720 Thailand(89) 9,430 China(94) 9,210 Bhutan(105) 6,310 SriLanka(107) 6,120 Indonesia(119) 4,810 Philippines(121) 4,400 India(128) 3,840 Vietnam(132) 3,440 LaoPDR(137) 2,730 Cambodia(140) 2,360 Bangladesh(147) 2,070 Kenya(154) 1,760 Ethiopia(169) 1,140 Madagascar(172) 950 Niger(176) 650 Congo,Dem.Rep.… 370

53

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¦µ¥Å—o‡¦´ªÁ¦º°œÁ¡·¤É …¹Ê œÁ¦Èª„ªnµ¦µ¥‹n µ¥¦ª¤ ­Îµ¦ª‹¨nµ­»—Äœž¸ 2011 Œ´¥q— 2.10a – ¥´¤Æ–n†¥³©Â¥¹¯›Â‹§·Ê¤ эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠь

14,963

2004

17,787

18,660

2006

2007

20,903

2009

23,236

2011

Œ´¥q— 2.10b – ¥´¤Šm´¤†¥³©Â¥¹¯›Â‹§·Ê¤ эѥъшҕѠѯчѪѠь

12,297

2004

14,311

14,500

2006

2007

16,205

2009

Source:NationalStatisticOfficesurvey;CTEanalysis

17,403

2011


¤š´ÊŠ¦³¥³Áª¨µž¨°—®œ¸Ê š¸¨É —¨ŠÄœ„µ¦ Œ´¥q— 2.10c – ­›·Ë¬¶›Â‹§·Ê¤—m¯†¥³©Â¥¹¯› эѥъ

104,571

2004

116,585

116,681

2006

2007

134,699

134,900

2009

2011

Œ´¥q— 2.10d – ¥²¤²Â©§´§¯–­›·Ë‹§·Ê¤* юѨ 3.3 2.8 2.3

2.4 1.9

2004

2006

2007

2009

2011

Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)

54

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š­¦»žŸ¼o ¦·®µ¦

ƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—

ƒ´¥ƒ¥²Š´¤ ¥´¤Æ–n

¬˜·¤¥¢´ 

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѯшѧэѱшѯёѨѕк 2.8% Ѳьѳ зіѩкѷ Ͳ іѥѕлҕѥѕўјѤдъѨд ѷ іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэ ѯѠднь Ѱјѣдѥіјкъѫь Ͳ ѲьѐѤѷ кдѥіяјѧшдѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠ • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰј • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ • дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѲьнњҕ къѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥеѠкюѨ шч ѧ ј • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшѱчѕ • ѓѥзыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє іњєщк • ѝѼѥьѤдкѥьѯћіќудѧлдѥізјѤкѰјѣѝѓѥё ьѨј Ѹ к ъѼѥѲў ҖюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙіњєѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњ

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 0.55% Ѳь њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюѰјѣѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬѲҕ ѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.59% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥь 0.75% • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѰѕҕјкѯјѶдь ѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч ҖјчјкѲьѳ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѰѕ шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ


ѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝѰіддњҕѥ

эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў ҖдѥіѯшѧэѱшшѼѥѷ ѣѯдќші јчјклѥдъѤкѸ ѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь ҖѥѰјѣнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ Ѥ ѯль ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь нѣјѠшѤњѠѕҕѥкнч э дѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥнѣјѠшѤњ ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк ѕзкчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ шѼѥѷ ецѣъѨіѷ ѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢўчшѤњјк кяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ёѤхьҙѢшҕѥкюіѤэјчюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьюѨ њҕѥк 4.05-4.50% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.7-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

ьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ѰјѣјчјкѠѕҕѥкшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳю ѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшѰъэѳєҕєѯѨ кѧьѯђҖ Ѡ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥ ь ҖѠѕѱчѕѝч ѳшієѥѝѰід ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјк эюіѣєѥцдјѤэєѥѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣ

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

55


ÁŠ·œÁ¢o °š´ªÉ ި³ÁŠ·œÁ¢o °¡ºÊ œ“µœ¨—¨Š°¥nµ Œ´¥q— 3.07a – –³Œ›·¥´†´ž»nœ¥¶Ä¢† % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ 3.00%

2.50%

2.00%

Headline 1.50%

1.00%

Core* 0.50%

0.00% Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Note:(*)excluderawfoodandenergy Source:BureauofTradeandEconomicIndices;CTEanalysis


µŠ˜n°Áœº°É ŠÄœÁ—º°œ­.‡. Œ´¥q— 3.07b – –³Œ›·¥´†´ž»nœ¥¶Ä¢†¥´¤ƒ§ºm£¬¶›†n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ, ѝ.з. 2013 Meat

8.2

Tobacco&alcohol

5.4

Eggs&milk

5.3

Energy

3.0

Preparedfoodathome

1.3

Rice

1.3

Foodawayfromhome

1.3

Housing&furnishing

1.1

Veg&fruit

1.0

Transport&Commu

1.0

Apparelandfootware

0.8

Medicalcare

0.7

Seasoning

0.5

Nonalcoholicbeverage

0.5

Recreation&Education

0.4

56

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ÁŠ·œÁ¢o °Äœž¦³Áš«Åš¥™º°ªnµ‡n°œ…oµŠ˜ÎµÉ Á¤ Œ´¥q— 3.08 – –³Œ›·¥´†´ž»nœ¥¶Ä¢†™³©Ê ħƒ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ

Latest

IndiaͲJul IndonesiaͲJul PakistanͲJul VietnamͲAug

6.

HongKongͲJul

6.5

RussiaͲJul

6.3

BrazilͲJul 2.7

ChinaͲJul PhilippinesͲJul

2.5

AustraliaͲQ2

2.4

MalaysiaͲJul

2.0

USͲJul

2.0

SingaporeͲJul

1.9

EuroAreaͲJul

1.6

ThailandͲAug

1.6 1.4

SouthKoreaͲJul JapanͲJun

0.2

TaiwanͲJul

0.1

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source:TheEconomist


¤º°É Áš¸¥„´ž¦³Áš«°ºÉœÇ

2013* 9.6

9.6

8.6

7.7

8.3

7.5

7.5

6.9

.9

4.1 6.4 6.5 2.7 3.1 2.4 1.8 1.5 2.4 1.5 2.5 1.7 0.1 1.3

57

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šÅ¤n¤¸ÁŠ·œÁ¢o °Äœ¦³—´¦µ‡µ…°ŠŸ¼Ÿo ¨·˜

Œ´¥q— 3.09a – –³Œ›·¥´†´ž»nž§¶— % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Mar-13

Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Source:BureauofTradeandEconomicIndices;CTEanalysis


Œ´¥q— 3.09b – –³Œ›·¥´†´ž»nž§¶—¥´¤¬¶›†n´ % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ дѠ ҕ ьўь Җѥ, ѝ.з. 2013 Fishing Livestocks Metal Food Leather&footware NonͲmetallicmineral Transportequip Wood Chemical Forestry Pulp&paper -0.1 Mechinery -0.1 Textile -0.2 Electricalequip -0.3 Petroluemproducts -0.5 Crop -1.8 Energy -2.2 Rubber&plastic -4.0 Basicmetals -5.8 Othermanugoods-7.3

25.9 23.0 3.4 3.1 3.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.0

58

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š­¦»žŸ¼o ¦·®µ¦

ƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—

ƒ´¥ƒ¥²Š´¤ ¥´¤Æ–n

¬˜·¤¥¢´ 

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѯшѧэѱшѯёѨѕк 2.8% Ѳьѳ зіѩкѷ Ͳ іѥѕлҕѥѕўјѤдъѨд ѷ іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэ ѯѠднь Ѱјѣдѥіјкъѫь Ͳ ѲьѐѤѷ кдѥіяјѧшдѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠ • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰј • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ • дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѲьнњҕ къѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥеѠкюѨ шч ѧ ј • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшѱчѕ • ѓѥзыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє іњєщк • ѝѼѥьѤдкѥьѯћіќудѧлдѥізјѤкѰјѣѝѓѥё ьѨј Ѹ к ъѼѥѲў ҖюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙіњєѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњ

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 0.55% Ѳь њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюѰјѣѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬѲҕ ѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.59% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥь 0.75% • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѰѕҕјкѯјѶдь ѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч ҖјчјкѲьѳ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѰѕ шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ


ѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝѰіддњҕѥ

эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў ҖдѥіѯшѧэѱшшѼѥѷ ѣѯдќші јчјклѥдъѤкѸ ѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь ҖѥѰјѣнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ Ѥ ѯль ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь нѣјѠшѤњѠѕҕѥкнч э дѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥнѣјѠшѤњ ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк ѕзкчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ шѼѥѷ ецѣъѨіѷ ѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢўчшѤњјк кяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ёѤхьҙѢшҕѥкюіѤэјчюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьюѨ њҕѥк 4.05-4.50% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.7-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

ьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ѰјѣјчјкѠѕҕѥкшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳю ѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшѰъэѳєҕєѯѨ кѧьѯђҖ Ѡ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥ ь ҖѠѕѱчѕѝч ѳшієѥѝѰід ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјк эюіѣєѥцдјѤэєѥѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣ

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

59


­·œÁºÉ°…°Š›œµ‡µ¦¡µ–·¥r…¥µ¥˜´ª˜n°Áœº°É

Œ´¥q— 3.02a – ¬¶›ÂŒ¹Ê¯„¯‰š›´†´¥ ´•¶Œ¤q 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

De

Œ´¥q— 3.02b – ¯³—¥´¬m©›Â‰¶›Å­n¬¶›ÂŒ¹Ê¯—m¯Â‰¶›Ÿ´ƒ„¯‰ 100% 95%

91.9%

90.8%

91.4%

91.1%

92.2%

9

90% 85% Jul-12

Source:BankofThailand

Aug-12 Sep-12

Oct-12 Nov-12 D


°ŠÄœ…–³š¸­É £µ¡‡¨n°Š¨—¨Š‡n°œ…oµŠ¤µ„

ec-12

M-o-M +1.9% Y-o-Y +12.8%

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

‰š›´†´¥ ´•¶Œ¤q

93.1%

93.1%

Dec-12

Jan-13

93.9%

95.3% 93.4%

Feb-13 Mar-13

93.5%

93.3%

Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13

60

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


®œ¸Ê š¸ÅÉ ¤n„n°Ä®oÁ„·—¦µ¥Å—oÁ¡·¤É …¹Ê œš´ÊŠÄœ—oµœ¤ ئ¤µ­­°Š…°Šž¸ œ¸Ê

Œ´¥q— 3.03a –­›·Ë™·ÊÆ£mƒ¯m Å­nƒ¶–¥´¤Æ–nś¥²œœ¬˜´œ³›ƒ´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

477

05YE

445

06YE

458

07YE

401

08YE

380

09YE

317

10Y

Œ´¥q— 3.03b –­›·Ë™·ÊÆ£mƒ¯m Å­nƒ¶–¥´¤Æ–nś¥²œœ¬˜´œ³›ƒ´ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠѕѠчѯкѧьдѬ ҖъѤкѸ ўєч ѝч 8.16%

7.47%

7.31% 5.29%

4.85%

3.60

05YE

06YE

Source:BankofThailand

07YE

08YE

09YE

10Y


¤¼¨‡nµÂ¨³­´—­nªœ˜n°¥°—ÁŠ·œ„¼šo Ê Š´ ®¤—Äœ

´¥Â‰¶›

7

YE

270

256

11YE

12YE

257

265

2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3

´¥Â‰¶›

0%

YE

2.75%

11YE

2.26%

12YE

2.18%

2.21%

2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3 61

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


­´—­nªœÁŠ·œ„°Šš»œ…°Š›œµ‡µ¦¡µ–·¥r¨— ­¼ŠÁ¤º°É Áš¸¥„´°—¸˜

Œ´¥q— 3.04 – ¯³—¥´¬m©›Â‰¶›ƒ¯‰™º›„¯‰š›´†´¥ ´•¶Œ¤ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠѝь ѧ ъіѤёѕҙѯѝѕ Ѩѷ к ц ѝь Ѹѧ юѨ ѝч

15.8%

16.1%

14.9% 13.4%

13.3%

1 14.0%

13.9%

12.4%

2003

2004

2005

Source: Bank of Thailand

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010


—¨ŠÁžÈ œ 15.7% ĜÁ—º°œ¤·.¥. ˜n¥Š´ ™º°ªnµ

¤q • ¬¶Ë›Â–¹¯› 16.5%

16.2%

14.8%

16.0%

2013

15.5%

2012

15.0%

14.5%

2011

2012

14.0%

J F M A M J J A S O N D

62 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


¤¸®¨µ¥ž¦³Áš«š¸¤É ¸°˜´ ¦µ—°„Á¸Ê ¥š¸ÂÉ šo‹¦·Š˜ Œ´¥q— 3.05 – ¯³—¥´–¯ƒÂœ·¤ Ë ™·ÊÙnŠ¥¶‰ ц њѤьъѨѷ 27/7/2013

3MriskͲfreeinterestrates

11.8

India Pakistan

9.1

Brazil

9.0

Russia

7.2

Vietnam

7.0 6.2

Indonesia 4.7

China 3.2

Malaysia SouthKorea

2.7

Australia

2.6 2.2

Thailand

1.4

Philippines Taiwan

0.9

Singapore

0.4

HongKong

0.4

US

0.3

EuroArea

0.2

Japan

0.2

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source:TheEconomist


˜·—¨ ¦ª¤š´ÊŠž¦³Áš«Åš¥—oª¥

=

Expected2013inflation*

Realinterestrates

9.6

2.2

7.5

1.6

6.5

2.5

6.4

0.8

6.9

0.1

7.7

-1.5

2.7

2.0

1.8

1.4

1.7

1.0

2.4

0.2

2.5

-0.3

3.1

-1.7

1.3

-0.4 2.4

-2.0 4.1

0.1

-3.7

1.5

-1.2

1.5

-1.3 0.1

63

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


ĜÁ—º°œ­.‡. —´œ¸ SET ¨—¨Š„ªnµ 9% šnµ ¦°Ä®n°¸„¦°®œ¹ŠÉ Œ´¥q— 3.06a – ƒ´¥Â§·Ê¤›Ã§‰Å›–³Œ›· SET % дѥіѯюјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь Җѥ 1.3%

2.4%

-2.0%

-2.2%

-7.1%

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

-9.1%

Aug-13

Œ´¥q— 3.06b – £»§†m´ƒ´¥§‰™º›¬²¬£„¯‰—m´‰Œ´—¶ ѧѸ ѯчѪѠь, ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ SET Ѱјѣ MAI, шѤкѸ Ѱшҕш ҖьюѨ щкѩ ѝь 40.0 20.0 0.0 -20.0 -40.0 -60.0 -80.0 -100.0 -120.0 -140.0

D-12 J-13 F-13 M-13 A-13 M-13 J-13 J-13 A-13 S-13 O-13 N-13 D-13

Source:SET,TheEconomist

E


µ¤„¨µŠ„µ¦Å®¨°°„…°ŠÁŠ·œ¨Šš»œ˜nµŠµ˜· Œ´¥q— 3.06c – ƒ´¥Â§·Ê¤›Ã§‰Å›–³Œ›·›³œŠ´ƒ¬¶Ë›d 2012 ц њѤьъѨѷ 28/8/2013 31.5%

Pakistan(KSE)

28.3%

Japan(Nikkei225) 19.0%

US(NAScomp)

14.6%

US(S&P500)

13.1%

US(DJIA) UK(FTSE100)

9.0%

Australia(AllOrd.)

8.9%

France(CAC40)

8.8% 7.2%

Germany(DAX)

5.0%

EuroArea(FTSEEuro100)

1.6%

Taiwan(TWI) -0.2%

Malaysia(KLSE) China(SSEB,$terms)

-2.7%

HK(HangSeng)

-5.0%

Singapore(STI)

-5.1%

SKorea(KOSPI)

-5.6%

Indonesia(JSX)

-6.7%

India(BSE)

-7.4%

China(SSEA)

-7.4%

Thailand(SET)

-8.3%

64

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


š­¦»žŸ¼o ¦·®µ¦

ƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—

ƒ´¥ƒ¥²Š´¤ ¥´¤Æ–n

¬˜·¤¥¢´ 

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѯшѧэѱшѯёѨѕк 2.8% Ѳьѳ зіѩкѷ Ͳ іѥѕлҕѥѕўјѤдъѨд ѷ іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэ ѯѠднь Ѱјѣдѥіјкъѫь Ͳ ѲьѐѤѷ кдѥіяјѧшдѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠ • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰј • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ • дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѲьнњҕ къѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥеѠкюѨ шч ѧ ј • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшѱчѕ • ѓѥзыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє іњєщк • ѝѼѥьѤдкѥьѯћіќудѧлдѥізјѤкѰјѣѝѓѥё ьѨј Ѹ к ъѼѥѲў ҖюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙіњєѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњ

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 0.55% Ѳь њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюѰјѣѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬѲҕ ѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.59% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥь 0.75% • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѰѕҕјкѯјѶдь ѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч ҖјчјкѲьѳ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѰѕ шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ


ѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝѰіддњҕѥ

эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў ҖдѥіѯшѧэѱшшѼѥѷ ѣѯдќші јчјклѥдъѤкѸ ѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь ҖѥѰјѣнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ Ѥ ѯль ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь нѣјѠшѤњѠѕҕѥкнч э дѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥнѣјѠшѤњ ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк ѕзкчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ шѼѥѷ ецѣъѨіѷ ѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢўчшѤњјк кяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ёѤхьҙѢшҕѥкюіѤэјчюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьюѨ њҕѥк 4.05-4.50% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.7-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

ьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ѰјѣјчјкѠѕҕѥкшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳю ѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшѰъэѳєҕєѯѨ кѧьѯђҖ Ѡ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥ ь ҖѠѕѱчѕѝч ѳшієѥѝѰід ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјк эюіѣєѥцдјѤэєѥѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣ

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

65


ž¸ 2012 ¤¸„µ¦…µ——»¨Šž¦³¤µ–­¼Š¤µ„ 10 ž¸ ¤¸Á¡¸¥Šž¸ 2009 Ášnµœ´Êœš¸…É µ——»¨¤µ„ Œ´¥q— 4.1 ––º§‰œ¥²£´•Â£¹¯Ê ™·¤œƒ³œŠ·–· · чѫјѯкѧьѲькэюіѣєѥц чѫјѯкѧьѝч

1.4% 0.3% 0.4%

1.1%

0.0% 0.1%

-0.5%-0.6%

-1.7 -2.0%

03FY

04FY

05FY

Source:BankofThailand;CTEanalysis

06FY

07FY


Á¤º°É Áš¸¥ÁžÈ œ­´—­nªœ˜n°‹¸ —¸¡¸ ¨³Äœ¦° „„ªnµ

-0.3% -0.7%

-1.1%-1.1%

-1.3%

% -2.6% -3.6% -4.0% -4.4%

08FY

09FY

-4.1%

10FY

11FY

12FY 66

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


—»¨Šž¦³¤µ–ÄœnªŠ®„Á—º°œÂ¦„…°Šž¸ 2 nªŠÁ—¸¥ª„´œ…°Šž¸ „n°œ®œoµ ™º°ªnµ­™µœ³„µ Œ´¥q— 4.2 – –º§‰œ¥²£´• ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

¥´¤¥³œ

1,013

–º§‰œ ¥²£´•

1,109

16

-996

1

0

-1,109

1,241

-36

-1,277

1,390

1,455

1,498

-174

-100

-1,629

-1,598

1,484

110 -364

-1,280

¥´¤Šm´¤

-1,849

-1

03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 1 Source:BankofThailand;CTEanalysis


2013 „¨´¤µÁžÈ œª„ ¨³Á¤º°É Áš¸¥„´ µ¦‡¨´Š—¸…¹Êœ¤µ„

–º§‰œ¥²£´•¬²¬£¥´¤Â–¹¯› 100.0 ,751

1,902

2,077

2013 0.0

-100.0

-75

-28 -412 -200.0

2012

-300.0

1,825

-1,930 -400.0 -2,489

-500.0

0FY 11FY 12FY

J F M A M J J A S O N D

67

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Ĝ 7 Á—º°œÂ¦„…°Šž¸ 2013 —»¨Šž¦³¤µ Á„·œ—»¨ 9 ¡´œ¨oµœµš Œ´¥q— 4.3 – –º§‰œ¥²£´•Ã§²–º§Â‰¶›¬– ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ –º§‰œ¥²£´• –º§Â‰¶›¬– 110

16

24

0

88

8

-36 -45

-1 -144 -174

03FY

04FY

05FY

Source:BankofThailand;CTEanalysis

06FY

07FY


µ–Á„·œ—»¨ 6 ¡´œ¨oµœµš ­nªœ—»¨ÁŠ·œ­—

6

9

-28 -75

00 -96

-137

-266

-364 -401

-412 -466

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

'13/7mo

68

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Á¤º°É Áš¸¥„´ž¦³Áš«°ºÉœÇ „µ¦…µ——»¨Šž Â¥nÁ®¤º°œž¦³Áš«¸žÉ »n œ®¦º°­®¦´“²

Œ´¥q— 4.4 ––º§‰œ¥²£´•—m¯Š·–  · ·Å›¥²Â™ª—m´‰È зѥчўєѥѕѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 HongKong Singapore SouthKorea Russia Australia Philippines Taiwan China Thailand Indonesia Brazil EuroArea US

-4

Malaysia -5.1

India

-5.2

Vietnam Japan Pakistan Note: (*) The Economist Poll (**) Actual

Source:TheEconomist

-8.3 -8.8


ž¦³¤µ–…°ŠÅš¥™º°ªnµÅ¤n—¸œ„´ ˜n„ÈŤnŗo

È 2.0 0.7 0.5 -0.6 -1.3 -1.8 -1.9 -2.1 -2.8 -2.9 -3.1 -3.3 -4.0

4.3

69

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


®œ¸Ê ­µ›µ¦–³Á¡·¤É ­¼Š…¹Ê œÁ¨È„œo°¥ÄœnªŠš¸ÉŸnµ Œ´¥q— 4.5a – ­›·Ë¬´š´¥•² ј Җѥьј Җѥьэѥъ 6.0

5.0

4.0

Publicdebtfrom StateEnterprises

3.0 BondtoCompensateFIDF'sLoss &Prefundingdebt 2.0

1.0 DirectGovernmentdebt 0.0 2009 10%

2010

2011

2012

Jun-13

8%

8%

7%

7%

Source: Public Debt Management Office

Ext as


µœ¤µ…°Šž¸ œ¸Ê Œ´¥q— 4.5b – ­›·Ë¬´š´¥•² Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ Ѩ 50% 45% 40%

Publicdebtfrom StateEnterprises

35% 30% 25%

BondtoCompensateFIDF'sLoss &Prefundingdebt

20% 15% 10%

DirectGovernmentdebt

5% 0%

2009

ternaldebt percentoftotal

2010

2011

2012

Jun-13

70

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


®œ¸Ê ­µ›µ¦–³…°ŠÅš¥Å¤n™°º ªnµ°¥¼nĜ¦³—´š Œ´¥q— 4.6 – ­›·Ë¬´š´¥•²Å›Ä§ƒ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ ,Ѩ 2012 ўіѪѠјҕѥѝѫч 1Japan 2Zimbabwe 3Greece 6Lebanon 8Italy 9Portugal 10Iceland 12Ireland 14Singapore 15Belgium 18France 19UnitedKingdom 20Egypt 21Canada 22Spain 25Hungary 27Germany 28SriLanka 31Malta 33Israel 35UnitedStates 37Morocco 39Netherlands 41Croatia 43Bhutan Source: CIA fact book

219 203 161 128 126 120 119 118 107 101 89 89 85 84 83 81 81 79 77 74 74 72 69 66 64


š¸­É ¼ŠÁ¤º°É Áš¸¥„´¤µ˜¦“µœœµœµµ˜·

9

Int’l rule ofthumb <60%of GDP 52Bahrain 53Malaysia 54Brazil 58Switzerland 60India 61Philippines 64Venezuela 66Vietnam 67Laos 74Denmark 76Thailand 79CzechRepublic 81SouthAfrica 84NewZealand 85Argentina 87Turkey 92Taiwan 95China 100Mexico 106Korea,South 109Bangladesh 113HongKong 119Australia 121Indonesia 139Russia

56 56 55 52 52 51 49 48 48 45 44 44 43 42 42 40 39 39 35 34 32 30 27 25 11

71

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š­¦»žŸ¼o ¦·®µ¦

ƒ´¥Â—¶œÄ—

ƒ´¥ƒ¥²Š´¤ ¥´¤Æ–n

¬˜·¤¥¢´ 

• ѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѯшѧэѱшѯёѨѕк 2.8% Ѳьѳ зіѩкѷ Ͳ іѥѕлҕѥѕўјѤдъѨд ѷ іѣшѫ Җьдѥіѯшѧэ ѯѠднь Ѱјѣдѥіјкъѫь Ͳ ѲьѐѤѷ кдѥіяјѧшдѥінѣјѠшѤњеѠ • ѲьѯчѪѠьд.з. яјяјѧшѠѫшѝѥўдіієѰј • ѲьѐѤѷ кіѥѕлҕѥѕдѥіэіѧѱѓзѓѥзѯѠднь Ѱ • дѥіѝкҕ ѠѠдѲьнњҕ къѨя ѷ ѥҕ ьєѥеѠкюѨ шч ѧ ј • ьѱѕэѥѕдѥіѯкѧьѕѤкѯь Җьдѥіѯшѧэѱшѱчѕ • ѓѥзыѫідѧлѰјѣѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдііє іњєщк • ѝѼѥьѤдкѥьѯћіќудѧлдѥізјѤкѰјѣѝѓѥё ьѨј Ѹ к ъѼѥѲў ҖюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙіњєѠѕѬіҕ ѣўњ

• ѠѤшіѥдѥіњҕѥккѥьјчјкѯюѶ ь 0.55% Ѳь њҕѥккѥьеѠкѳъѕѕѤкѠѕѬѲҕ ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ъѨѝ ѷ ч ѫ • дѥідіѣлѥѕіѥѕѳч ҖеѠкѳъѕьѤэѳч ҖњҕѥѠ ѱчѕіњєчѨеь ѩѸ ѕдѯњ ҖьѲьдъє. Ѥ ѝњҕ ьзьѕѥдльєѨѰьњѱь • лѼѥьњьѰјѣѝч ѯіѶњдњҕѥіѥѕлҕѥѕіњєъѤкѸ іѣѕѣѯњјѥюјѠч

• ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳюѰјѣѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥьѠѕѬѲҕ ѠѕѬъ ҕ Ѩѷ 1.59% ѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠёѪь Ѹ уѥь 0.75% • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіѰѕҕјкѯјѶдь ѝѬк ўьѨъ Ѹ ѳѨѷ єҕдѠ ҕ Ѳў Җѯдѧчіѥѕѳч ҖјчјкѲьѳ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьдѥізјѤкчѨеь ѩѸ ѱчѕчѫјкэ ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ • ѯѝщѨѕіѓѥёч ҖѥьѯкѧьшіѥшҕѥкюіѣѯъћѰѕ шюъ.ѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ ѰшҕѕѤкѳєҕѠь Ѥ шіѥѕ ѯкѧьэѥ


ѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ окѩѷ шѼѥѷ дњҕѥѠѤшіѥдѥіѯшѧэѱшѲьѳшієѥѝѰіддњҕѥ

эѱшеѠклѨчё Ѩ ѲѨ ьѳшієѥѝѝѠкеѠкюѨ ьє ѨѸ ѥлѥддѥіѝкҕ ѠѠд дѥіэіѧѱѓз

ѠкѓѥзѠѫшѝѥўдіієѕѤкзкѯюѶ ьѝњҕ ьѝѼѥзѤръѨъ ѷ ѼѥѲў ҖдѥіѯшѧэѱшшѼѥѷ ѣѯдќші јчјклѥдъѤкѸ ѯчѪѠьдҕѠьўь ҖѥѰјѣнњҕ кѯчѨѕњдѤьеѠкюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ Ѥ ѯль ѰјѣдѥіјкъѫьѓѥзѯѠднь нѣјѠшѤњѠѕҕѥкнч э дѥіьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥнѣјѠшѤњ ьѤдъҕѠкѯъѨѕ ѷ њѕѤкѯёѧє ѷ ѝѬк ѕзкчѠдѯэѨѕ Ѹ шѼѥѷ ецѣъѨіѷ ѥѕлҕѥѕіѤуѢўчшѤњјк кяѬ ҖэіѧѱѓзєѠкѲьѰкҕі Җѥѕєѥдеѩь Ѹ ёѤхьҙѢшҕѥкюіѤэјчюіѣєѥцдѥіцҙдѥіѯшѧэѱшеѠкѯћіќудѧлѳъѕѲьюѨ њҕѥк 4.05-4.50% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2013 Ѱјѣ 4.7-5.0% ѝѼѥўіѤэюѨ 2014

ьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѯєѪѠ ѷ ѯъѨѕэдѤэѯешѯћіќудѧлѝѼѥзѤрѵѲьѱјд ѠѤшіѥ ч Ѩ ѰшҕѰьњѱь ҖєдѥідіѣлѥѕеѠкіѥѕѳч Җ ѕѬѲҕ ьѠѤьчѤэъ ҖѥѕѵеѠкѯѠѯнѕ

ь ҖєјчјкѲьіѣѕѣўјѤкѕдѯњ ҖьѯёѨѕкѲьдъє. іѥѕѳч ҖзіѤњѯіѪѠьѯёѧє ѷ еѩь Ѹ чўьѨъ Ѹ ј Ѩѷ чјкѲьдѥіѝѼѥіњлјҕѥѝѫчѲьюѨ 2011

ьіѣчѤэшѼѥѷ ѰјѣјчјкѠѕҕѥкшҕѠѯьѪѠ ѷ кѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з. ѱчѕѯкѧьѯђҖ ѠъѤњѷ ѳю ѲьіѣчѤэяѬ ҖяјѧшѰъэѳєҕєѯѨ кѧьѯђҖ Ѡ Ѥ ѝњҕ ьъѫьѲьіѣээыьѥзѥіјчјкѲьѯчѪѠьєѧ.ѕ. ѰшҕѕѤкщѪѠњҕѥ ь ҖѠѕѱчѕѝч ѳшієѥѝѰід ѝѓѥёзјҕѠкјчјк эюіѣєѥцдјѤэєѥѯдѧьчѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ ўьѨѝ Ѹ ѥыѥіцѣ

ѕҕјк чѫјдѥінѼѥіѣѯкѧьеѥччѫјѲьнњҕ к 7 ѯчѪѠьѰідеѠкюѨ 2013 ўьѨѸ ъѠҕѠьзҕѥјкѠѕҕѥкіњчѯіѶњѲьѯчѪѠьѝ.з.

72


—»¨„µ¦Îµ¦³ÁŠ·œ˜·—¨Á¨È„œo°¥ÄœnªŠ 7 Á— ´¸Á—·œ­³¡´— („µ¦‡oµ + ¦·„µ¦Â¨³¦µ¥ Œ´¥q— 5.01 – –º§ƒ´¥ŒÏ´¥²Â‰¶› ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙ 31.3 24.7

24.1

5.3 1.2 -0.2 08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

Source:BankofThailand;CTEanalysis

12FY

13/7mo


—º°œÂ¦„…°Šž¸ ­µÁ®˜»®¨´„‹µ„„µ¦…µ——»¨ ¥Å—o­»š›·) –º§ƒ´¥†n´ (F.O.B) 32.6

29.8

17.3

17.0 8.3 -0.5

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13/7mo

-5.6

-4.0

12FY

13/7mo

–º§œ¥¶ƒ´¥Ã§²¥´¤Æ–n¬º™š¶

+

-15.2

08FY

-10.7

-11.1 -19.7

09FY

10FY

11FY

ƒ´¥Â†§¹Ê¯›¤n´¤™º›Ã§²†©´£†§´–†§¹Ê¯›¬º™š¶ 22.5

21.3 2.2

2.5

4.3

12FY

13/7mo

-4.7 08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

73

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


ž¦³Áš«š¸¤É ¸—»¨´¸Á—·œ­³¡´—Á„·œ—»¨¤µ„ Á„·—Ä®¤nĜÁ°Á¸¥ Œ´¥q— 5.02 – –º§œ³Œ·Â–¶›¬² ³– As%of2013 GDP* SingaporeͲQ2

1

TaiwanͲQ2 5.8%

MalaysiaͲQ2

5.0%

VietnamͲ2011

3.5%

SouthKoreaͲJul

2.9%

PhilippinesͲMar

2.5%

RussiaͲQ2 ChinaͲQ2

2.1%

EuroAreaͲJun

1.8%

JapanͲJun

1.0%

HongKongͲQ1

0.9% 0.1%

ThailandͲQ2 -1.0%

PakistanͲQ2 IndonesiaͲQ2

-2.4%

USͲQ1

-2.7%

AustraliaͲQ1

-2.8%

BrazilͲJul IndiaͲQ1

-3.2% -4.5%

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist; actual figures for Thailand from Bank of T


ÇÁ¤º°É Áš¸¥„´‹¸ —¸¡­¸ nªœÄ®nÁžÈ œÁ«¦¬“„·‹

Last12months,USDBillion 19.0%

49.4

11.7%

52.8 14.2 0.2 59.8 10.2 47.9 211.6 247.1 54.1 5.2 -1.4 -2.3 -28.8 -425.7

hailand and NESDB

-51.1 -77.7 -87.8

74

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


—»¨„µ¦‡oµÄœ¦¼žÁŠ·œµš˜·—¨®œ´„„ªnµÁ—·¤ ­nŠ°°„š¸¨É —¨Š¤µ„„ªnµ„µ¦œÎµÁ…oµ Œ´¥q— 5.03 – –º§ƒ´¥†n´ ёѤьј Җѥьэѥъ

ƒ´¥¬m‰¯¯ƒ¬²¬£—³Ë‰Ã—m—n›d 8,000 7,000

2012

ƒ´¥›Ï´Â„n´¬²¬ 8,000 7,000

6,000

6,000

5,000

5,000

4,000

4,000

3,000

3,000

2,000

2,000

1,000

2013

Y-o-Y -3.7%

0

1,000

201

0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

J F M A

Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few adjust (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of payment (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of payment

Source:BankofThailand;CTEanalysis


¤ÄœnªŠš¸ŸÉ nµœ¤µ…°Šž¸ œ¸Ê Áœº°É Š‹µ„„µ¦

=

¬£—³Ë‰Ã—m—n›d

3

–º§ƒ´¥†n´¬²¬£—³Ë‰Ã—m—n›d 0

-100

2012

2012

-200 -300 -400 2013 -500 -600

Y-o-Y -0.4%

M J J A S O N D

tments and exchange rate conversion and exchange rate conversion

-700 -800

J F M A M J J A S O N D

75

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


®œ¸Ê ˜nµŠž¦³Áš«Á¡·¤É …¹Ê œÄœž¸ œ¸Ê š´ÊŠÄœ¦¼ž˜´ªÁŠ Œ´¥q— 5.10a – ¥²–³œ­›·Ë—m´‰¥²Â™ª ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ 160 120 80 40 0

04YE

05YE

06YE

07YE

08YE

Œ´¥q— 5.10b – ¥²–³œ­›·Ë—m´‰¥²Â™ª Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠлѨчё ѝч Ѩ Ѩ

40.9%

04YE

37.0%

38.5%

05YE

06YE

Source:BankofThailand

35.4%

07YE

31.4%

08YE


œÂ¨³­´—­nªœ˜n°‹¸ —¸¡¸

E

09YE

%

28.8%

E

09YE

10YE

11YE

35.2%

33.8%

10YE

11YE

12YE

13/1Q

38.8%

40.0%

12YE

13/1Q

76

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


­´—­nªœ®œ¸Ê ˜nµŠž¦³Áš«š¸¤É ¸‹µ„£µ‡¦´“Á¡·¤É … ¦³¥³¥µª¤µ„…¹Ê œ Œ´¥q— 5.11a – ­›·Ë—m´‰¥²Â™ª—´£¥²Â¢™§»ƒ­›·Ë Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠўьѨш ѝч Ѹ ѥҕ кюіѣѯъћъѤкѸ ўєч Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities

8%

92%

09YE

13%

87%

10YE

Source:BankofThailand

15%

20%

23%

85%

80%

77%

11YE

12YE

13/1Q


…¹Ê œ ¨³®œ¸Ê ˜nµŠž¦³Áš«¤¸­—´ ­nªœÁžÈ œ®œ¸Ê Œ´¥q— 5.11b – ­›·Ë—m´‰¥²Â™ª—´£¥²¤²Â©§´­›·Ë Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠўьѨш ѝч Ѹ ѥҕ кюіѣѯъћъѤкѸ ўєч Long term Short term

44%

56%

09YE

50%

50%

10YE

45%

46%

44%

55%

54%

56%

11YE

12YE

13/1Q

77

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


‡ªµ¤­µ¤µ¦™Äœ„µ¦Îµ¦³®œ¸Ê ˜nµŠž¦³Áš«…

Œ´¥q— 5.12a – ¥²–³œÂ‰¶›™º›¬Ï´¥¯‰¥²­©m´‰¥²Â™ª Ѥ ѝњҕ ьшҕѠўьѨш ѤѸ ѝч Ѹ ѥҕ кюіѣѯъћіѣѕѣѝь

418% 370% 340%

330%

299%

08YE

09YE

10YE

11YE

Source:BankofThailand;CTEanalysis

12YE

286%

13/1Q


…°ŠÅš¥¥´ŠÅ¤nœnµÁžÈ œš¸„É Š´ ª¨

Œ´¥q— 5.12b – ¯³—¥´¬m©›ƒ´¥ŒÏ´¥²­›·Ë—™.—m¯ƒ´¥¬m‰¯¯ƒ

8.2% 7.6%

4.8%

4.7%

4.2% 3.4%

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13/1Q

78

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


ÁŠ·œ­Îµ¦°Š¦³®ªnµŠž¦³Áš«¨—¨ŠÁ¨È„œo°¥Äœ

Œ´¥q— 5.13a – ¥²–³œÂ‰¶›™º›¬Ï´¥¯‰¥²­©m´‰¥²Â™ª* ёѤьј ҖѥьчѠјјѥіҙѝўіѤуѢ

54.4

55.9

2004

2005

106.5

118.0

2007

2008

73.9

2006

Œ´¥q— 5.13b – ¥²–³œÂ‰¶›™º›¬Ï´¥¯‰¥²­©m´‰¥²Â™ª лѼѥьњьѯчѪѠьъѨѝ ѷ ѥєѥіщѲннҖ ѥѼ іѣзҕѥдѥіьѼ ѥѯе Җѥѳч Җ**

9.1 6.9

2004

5.7

2005

6.9

2006

2007

7.9

2008

Ѥ р (*) іњєєѬјзҕѥеѠк Net forward position ъѨыѷ юъ.єѨѓѥіѣяѬдёѤьѲьѝр (**) ѲнєѬҖ јзҕѥьѼ ѥѯе ҖѥѯмјѨѕ ѷ 12 ѯчѪѠьјҕѥѝѫч

Source:BankofThailand;CTEanalysis


œž¸ œ¸Ê ˜n¥Š´ ‡Š¤¸Á®¨º°Á¢º °

191.7

206.4

205.8

195.3

2011

2012

Jul-13

154.1

0

8

8

2009

13.8

2010

12.6 10.8

2009

2010

рѥ currency forward contracts

2011

10.0

2012

9.2

Jul-13

79

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


‡nµÁŠ·œµš°n°œ˜´ª¨Š 1.6% ĜÁ—º°œ­.‡. šµŠ„µ¦ Œ´¥q— 5.17a – –³Œ›·†m´Â‰¶›œ´™ 2007 = 100

114.0

Bahtappreciates

112.0

110.0

108.0

106.0

MͲoͲM

Ͳ1.6%

Bahtdepreciates Aug-12

Nov-12

Feb-13

May-13

104.0

102.0

100.0

YͲoͲY

98.0

3.6%

96.0

94.0 Aug-13

Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $

Source:BankofThailand;CTEanalysis


Á¤º°É Áš¸¥„´­„»¨ÁŠ·œ˜nµŠÇĜ˜¦³„¦oµÁŠ·œ

0

0

Œ´¥q— 5.17b – ƒ´¥Â§·Ê¤›Ã§‰„¯‰¯³—¥´Ã§ƒÂ§·Ê¤› % ъѨѯѷ юјѨѕ ѷ ьѰюјклѥдюѨ ъѰ Ѩѷ ј Җњ, ц њѤьъѨѷ 31/8/2013 EURͲ42.7779

8.1

CNYͲ5.3214

5.9

0

KRWͲ0.029

0

TWDͲ1.0758

2.2

0

USDͲ32.2155

2.2

MXNͲ2.4118

2.2

0

0

0

4.3

SGDͲ25.3983

0.4

GBPͲ50.0957

0.4

VNDͲ0.0015

0.0

MYRͲ9.882

-3.0

PHPͲ0.7316

-3.1

IDRͲ3.1961 AUDͲ28.9514 INRͲ0.5189

-9.0 -11.2 -13.7

JPYͲ32.9821 -18.3 Bahtappreciates

Bahtdepreciates 80

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


130831 thai emag