Issuu on Google+

Monthly  Economic  Brief  May 2013 issue


Executivesummary Growth RealGDPin4Q/2012,grew18.9%yͲoͲy,a massivelevel,thankstolastyearlowbase; whilethegrowthforthewholeyearof2012 was6.4%,higherthantheconsensus projections.Ontheexpenditureside,the growthwasdrivenbyallkeyexpenditures. Ontheproductionside,thegrowthwas drivenbytheresurgenceofManufacturing. ArecoveryinManufacturingandAgriculture productioninMarch.Privateconsumption andinvestmentcontinuetheirstronggrowth, evenwithadipinMarch. Exportrecoveredtoregistergrowthinthe first3monthsof2013,drivenbyMetaland Automotive.NAFTA,Japan,andRestofthe Worldarestillproblemmarkets.Ontheother hand,Importgrewatalowerrateof4.8%. Touristarrivalsgrewatanimpressive19%in theperiod. Lookingforward,bothFiscalandMonetary policiesareproͲgrowth,butlesssothisyear. Policyrateremainsat2.75%,aratherlow level,whileotherinterestratesinthemarket hardlychangeinMarch.Government expendituresofarthisyearisalmost20% lowerthanthesameperiodlastyear.

Confidenceinprivates Businessesweremore morepessimisticandC pessimistic.

BOTandFiscalPolicyO growthprojections;co nowbetween4.4Ͳ5.3% for2014.

Employmentandwea Unemploymentrated February,stillthelowe amongmajorandeme

Thailand’spercapitain 4,420in2011,ranked averageThaiisslightly averageChinesebutm richerthananaverage Incomedistributionis buttherehasbeenove thepasttwodecades, Bangkok.Povertyhead havedeclinedoverthe


sectorwasamixedone. eoptimistic,Industries Consumersless

Stability Headlineinflationdroppedto2.4%inApril, whileCoreinflationdroppedto1.2%,arather lowlevelbyhistoricalandinternational standards.

Officereviseduptheir onsensusprojectionis %for2013and4.6Ͳ5.0%

Bankingsystemisquitestable.Bank’scapital ratiodroppedslightlyto15.7%inFebruary, stillaratherhighlevel.Totalsystem’sNPL decreasedaspercenttototalloanin1Q13.

althdistribution ecreasedto0.62%in estunemploymentlevel ergingeconomies.

Budgetdeficitforthefirst3monthsof2013 improvedsignificantlycomparedtosame periodlastyear.Publicdebtaspercentageof GDPincreasedslightlysofarthisyeardue mainlytodirectgovernmentdebt,butthe currentlevelof44%isnotyetdangerous. Majorityofthepublicdebtisdomesticbased.

ncomewasatUSD 83rd intheworld.An ypoorerthanan morethanthreetimes eIndian.Thailand’s amongtheworstinAsia erallimprovementover exceptforonlyin dcountandpovertyrate elastdecade.

BalanceofPaymentinthefirst3monthsof 2013ispositivethankstoimprovementinnet serviceincome.Externaldebtincreased slightlybutcapabilitytorepayisnotaconcern asdebtserviceratioremainedlowand internationalreservesisathealthylevel.Thai Bahtcontinuedtoappreciatefastagainsta basketofkeycurrenciesinApril.

2

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin4Q/2012,grew18.9%y growthforthewholeyearof2012 Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,the • ArecoveryinManufacturingandA • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporthasrecovered,whileImport • MonetaryandFiscalpoliciesaresti • Businessesweremoreoptimistic,I • BOTandFiscalPolicyOfficerevised between4.4Ͳ5.3%for2013and4.6

• Unemploymentratedecreasedto0 countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• Headlineinflationdroppedto2.4% levelbyhistoricalandinternationa • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban system’sNPLdecreasedaspercent • Budgetdeficitforthefirst3month lastyear.Publicdebtisincreasingb • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBcontinuedtoappre




yͲoͲy,amassivelevel,thankstolastyearlowbase;whilethe was6.4%,higherthantheconsensusprojections. hegrowthwasdrivenbyallkeyexpenditures egrowthwasdrivenbytheresurgenceofManufacturing AgricultureproductioninMarch ntcontinuetheirstronggrowth,evenwithadipinMarch tgrewless.Touristarrivalsgrewstrongly. illproͲgrowth,butlesssothisyear ndustriesmorepessimisticandConsumerslesspessimistic duptheirgrowthprojections;consensusprojectionisnow 6Ͳ5.0%for2014

Page 4

9 15 21 31 34 37

0.62%inFebruary,averylowlevelcomparedtoother

40

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

43

%inApril,whileCoreinflationdroppedto1.2%,aratherlow lstandards nk’scapitalratiodroppedslightlyto15.7%inFebruary.Total ttototalloanin1Q13. hsof2013improvedsignificantlycomparedtosameperiod butnottooworryingjustyet. rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot eciateinApril.

53

47

57 63 70

3


2012endedimpressivelywiththe significantlyhigherthanconsensu Chart1.05– HistoricalRealGDPgrowthrate Annualgrowth,percent

7.1%

CAGR* 2001Ͳ2012 =4.3%

5.3%

6.3% 4.6%

2.2%

5.1% 5.0%

2.5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200

Note: (*) Cumulative Annual Growth Rate Source: NESDB; CTE analysis


erealgrowthof6.4%, usprojections

18.9%

7.8% 6.4% 4.4% 3.0%

5%

0.1%

0.4%

-2.3%

08 2009 2010 2011 2012

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12

4 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Manufacturingrecoverycompare behindimpressive4Q12GDPgrow Chart1.06a– Realgrowthbysector,4Q12 YearͲonͲYearpercentagechange 18.9

GDP

37

Manufacture 25.4

Hotel&Res 15.3

Othersocial

14.1

Construction Utilities

13.2

Transport

12.8 11.9

Mining

9.9

Financial Education

8.7

RealEstate

8.0

Trading

7.6

PublicAdmin

4.6

Health&Social

4.6

Agriculture

2.2

PrivateHH

1.6

Fishing

-5.8

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis


edto4Q11wastherealreason wth

7.4

Chart1.06b– Sectoralcontributions,4Q12 ContributionstototalRealGDPgrowth 18.9

GDP 12.8

Manufacture Transport

1.3

Hotel&Res

1.1

Trading

1.1

Utilities

0.5

Financial

0.5

Othersocial

0.3

RealEstate

0.3

Construction

0.3

Mining

0.3

Education

0.2

Agriculture

0.2

PublicAdmin

0.1

Health&Social

0.1

PrivateHH

0.0

Fishing

-0.1

5

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Manufacturingrecoverywasthe GDPgrowth Chart1.07a– Realgrowthbysector,2012 YearͲonͲYearpercentagechange 6.4

GDP

11.5

Hotel&Res 9.6

Utilities Transport

8.0

Construction

7.8 7.4

Mining

7.0

Manufacture

6.6

Financial Trading

5.2

Education

5.0

Health&Social

4.6

Agriculture

4.4

Othersocial

4.1

RealEstate

3.9

PublicAdmin

3.6

PrivateHH Fishing -3.0 Source: NESDB; CTE analysis

2.3


mainreasonforimpressive2012

Chart1.07b– Sectoralcontributions,2012 ContributionstototalRealGDPgrowth 6.4

GDP 2.7

Manufacture Transport

0.8

Trading

0.7

Hotel&Res

0.5

Utilities

0.3

Agriculture

0.3

Financial

0.3

Construction

0.2

Mining

0.2

RealEstate

0.2

Education

0.1

PublicAdmin

0.1

Othersocial

0.1

Health&Social

0.1

PrivateHH

0.0

Fishing

0.0

6 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Exportcontributedthemosttoto

Chart1.08a– Realgrowthbyexpenditure,4Q YearͲonͲYearpercentagechange GDP

18.9

I

28

X

19.0

ͲM

14.7

C

12.2

G

12.1

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis


otalrealGDPgrowthin4Q12

Q12 Chart1.08b– ExpenditureContributions,4Q12

8.2

ContributionstototalRealGDPgrowth GDP

18.9

X

13.6

C

6.7

I

6.2

G

1.2

Discrpncy

ͲM

0.1

-8.9

7 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Forthewholeyearof2012,grow domesticdemand(IandC)

Chart1.09a– Realgrowthbyexpenditure,20 YearͲonͲYearpercentagechange GDP

6.4

I

17.0

G

7.4

C

6.6

ͲM

X

6.2

2.9

Source: NESDB; CTE analysis


wthwasdrivenmainlyby

012 Chart1.09b– ExpenditureContributions,2012 ContributionstototalRealGDPgrowth GDP

6.4

I

3.7

C

3.4

X

2.2

G

0.7

Discrpncy

ͲM

0.0

-3.7

8 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin4Q/2012,grew18.9%y growthforthewholeyearof2012 Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,the • ArecoveryinManufacturingandA • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporthasrecovered,whileImport • MonetaryandFiscalpoliciesaresti • Businessesweremoreoptimistic,I • BOTandFiscalPolicyOfficerevised between4.4Ͳ5.3%for2013and4.6

• Unemploymentratedecreasedto0 countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• Headlineinflationdroppedto2.4% levelbyhistoricalandinternationa • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban system’sNPLdecreasedaspercent • Budgetdeficitforthefirst3month lastyear.Publicdebtisincreasingb • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBcontinuedtoappre




yͲoͲy,amassivelevel,thankstolastyearlowbase;whilethe was6.4%,higherthantheconsensusprojections. hegrowthwasdrivenbyallkeyexpenditures egrowthwasdrivenbytheresurgenceofManufacturing AgricultureproductioninMarch ntcontinuetheirstronggrowth,evenwithadipinMarch tgrewless.Touristarrivalsgrewstrongly. illproͲgrowth,butlesssothisyear ndustriesmorepessimisticandConsumerslesspessimistic duptheirgrowthprojections;consensusprojectionisnow 6Ͳ5.0%for2014

0.62%inFebruary,averylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

%inApril,whileCoreinflationdroppedto1.2%,aratherlow lstandards nk’scapitalratiodroppedslightlyto15.7%inFebruary.Total ttototalloanin1Q13. hsof2013improvedsignificantlycomparedtosameperiod butnottooworryingjustyet. rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot eciateinApril.

9


QuickrecoveryinManufacturing

Chart1.11– ManufacturingProductionIndex (2000=100) CAGR

4.1% 190.1 172.4 159.5

179.1 166.3

149.9 137.6 123.9

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics


productioninMarch

MonthlyAverage 250.0

172.9

177.2

200.0

2012

2013 150.0

100.0

MͲoͲM 14.4% YͲoͲY 0.5%

50.0

0.0

2011 2012

J F M A M J J A S O N D

10 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Allsectors,butLeather,recovered

Chart1.12a– YͲonͲYchangeinMPIbysector March2013,percent

36

Vehicles 11.0

Tobacco Furniture

6.8

Textiles

6.3 3.8

Machineries Electrical

1.6

Chemical

1.6

Rubber&Plastic

1.4

Food&Bev

0.5

Mineral

0.2

BasicMat

-0.1

Woodproducts

-0.3

Metalproducts

-4.6

Petroleum

-4.8

Leather

-4.8 -6.0

Paper Apparel

-8.6

Officeautomate -11.5 TransportEquip -13.7 Electronic-14.4 Precisioninstru -16.8 Source: The Office of Industrial Economics; CTE analysis


dwellfromFebruarydip

Chart1.12b– MͲonͲMchangeinMPIbysector March2013,percent

6.3

13.4 22.0 1.3 6.0 11.2 10.8 13.3 8.0 20.3 10.2 6.6 13.6 14.3 11.5 -1.0 1.4 1.7 22.0 16.2 8.1 23.2

11

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Capacityutilizationratepickedup instrumentandVehiclesstillrunn Chart1.13a– OverallCapacityUtilizationRate Percent

68.4

70.4

69.0

67.0 63.5

Oct-12

Nov-12 Dec-12

62.9

Jan-13

Source: The Office of Industrial Economics

Feb-13

Mar-13


pstronglyinMarch,Precision ningovernormalcapacities Chart1.13b– Capacityutilizationratebysector March2013,percent Vehicles Precisioninstru Chemical Machineries Mineral Petroleum Officeautomate Electrical TransportEquip Rubber&Plastic Paper Metalproducts Food&Bev Tobacco BasicMat Electronic Textiles Apparel Furniture Leather Woodproducts

117.7 112.3 87.4 86.1 79.8 78.6 76.4 74.6 73.9 71.2 67.9 66.7 61.7 58.4 56.0 50.3 43.8 37.3 34.3 29.7 21.4

12 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailandisoneofthecountriesw ayearago

Chart1.14– ManufacturingProductionIndex Latest,percentchangeonyearago ChinaͲMar IndonesiaͲFeb AustraliaͲQ4 PakistanͲFeb USͲMar RussiaͲMar HongKongͲQ4 IndiaͲFeb ThailandͲMar EuroAreaͲFeb BrazilͲFeb TaiwanͲMar

-4.

MalaysiaͲFeb -9.3

SouthKoreaͲFeb

-10.5

JapanͲFeb SingaporeͲFeb Source: The Economist

-16.5


whoselatestMPIincreasedfrom

x 8.9 5.6 4.8 3.9 3.5 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.5 -3.1 -3.2 -3.3

.5

13 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


PickupinAgricultureproduction stillslightlylowerthanayearago Chart1.10– Agricultureproductionindex (2005=100) CAGR

3.3%

106.1

113.3 112.3 109.3 110.9

100.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture a


fromlastmonthinMarch,but o

MonthlyAverage 250.0

129.1

122.8

YͲoͲY Ͳ0.5%

200.0

MͲoͲM 3.3% 150.0

100.0

2013

2012

50.0

0.0

2011 2012

J F M A M J J A S O N D

14 nd Cooperatives

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin4Q/2012,grew18.9%y growthforthewholeyearof2012 Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,the • ArecoveryinManufacturingandA • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporthasrecovered,whileImport • MonetaryandFiscalpoliciesaresti • Businessesweremoreoptimistic,I • BOTandFiscalPolicyOfficerevised between4.4Ͳ5.3%for2013and4.6

• Unemploymentratedecreasedto0 countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• Headlineinflationdroppedto2.4% levelbyhistoricalandinternationa • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban system’sNPLdecreasedaspercent • Budgetdeficitforthefirst3month lastyear.Publicdebtisincreasingb • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBcontinuedtoappre




yͲoͲy,amassivelevel,thankstolastyearlowbase;whilethe was6.4%,higherthantheconsensusprojections. hegrowthwasdrivenbyallkeyexpenditures egrowthwasdrivenbytheresurgenceofManufacturing AgricultureproductioninMarch ntcontinuetheirstronggrowth,evenwithadipinMarch tgrewless.Touristarrivalsgrewstrongly. illproͲgrowth,butlesssothisyear ndustriesmorepessimisticandConsumerslesspessimistic duptheirgrowthprojections;consensusprojectionisnow 6Ͳ5.0%for2014

0.62%inFebruary,averylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

%inApril,whileCoreinflationdroppedto1.2%,aratherlow lstandards nk’scapitalratiodroppedslightlyto15.7%inFebruary.Total ttototalloanin1Q13. hsof2013improvedsignificantlycomparedtosameperiod butnottooworryingjustyet. rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot eciateinApril.

15


Privateconsumptiondroppedslig higherthanayearago

Chart1.15– CompositePrivateConsumptionI (2000=100) CAGR

3.2%

111.2

117.8

126.2 121.9 124.2

130.6

134.2 127.2

03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1

Note:(*)seasonallyadjusted Source: Bank of Thailand


ghtlyfromFebruarybutstill

Index* MonthlyAverage 160.0

147.0

155.0

139.2

11-Avg 12-Avg

150.0

2013

2012 145.0

140.0

MͲoͲM Ͳ1.1%

135.0

YͲoͲY

1.4% 130.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

16 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Mostconsumptionexpenditures yearevenwithadipinMarch Chart1.16a– YͲonͲYchange First3monthsof2013vs 2012,percent

99

PassengerCar(Unit) 21.4

CommercialCar(Unit) Realimportofconsumergoods(2000 prices,US$)

10.4

NGV(kg.)*

9.7

RealVAT(2000prices,baht)

7.8

Motocycle(Unit)

7.4

LPG(litre)*

6.3

Diesel(litre)

6.0

Benzene&Gasohol(litre)

5.8

HHelectricity(kilowatt/hour)

2.9

Note:(*)figuresare1Ͳmonthdelayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


grewimpressivelysofarthis

Chart1.16b– MͲonͲMchange MarvsFeb2013,percent

9.9

9.7 0.8 -7.2 0.3 -3.7 -2.0 2.3 2.4 3.3 3.1

17 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


PrivateInvestmentstillgrowingt March Chart1.17– PrivateInvestmentIndex (2000=100)

CAGR

6.9%

172.1 174.9 175.3 155.8

192.9

183.3 160.8

133.2

03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1

Source: Bank of Thailand


hisyear,evenwithadipin

MonthlyAverage 300.0

2013 250.0

2012 242.0 200.0

210.1

11-Avg 12-Avg

150.0

100.0

MͲoͲM Ͳ0.7%

YͲoͲY

3.4% 50.0

0.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

18 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Allkeyprivateinvestmentexpend farthisyear Chart1.18a– YͲonͲYchange First3monthsof2013vs 2012,percent

Domesticcommercialcar sales(unit)

52

DomesticMachinerysales* (2000prices,Baht)

27.7

14.9

DomesticCementsales(ton)

ImportofCapitalGoods (2000prices,Baht)

ConstructionAreapermitted (sqm)

9.0

2.7

Note:(*)figuresare1Ͳmonthdelayed Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


ditureshadimpressivegrowthso

Chart1.18b– MͲonͲMchange MarvsFeb2013,percent

2.8

4.9

-0.3

1.7

-1.8

1.7

19 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Propertyindicatorshavelargelyb

Chart1.19a– YͲonͲYchange First2monthsof2013vs thoseof2012,percent

32

Valueoflandtransaction

10.7

Condounitregistered

1.5

Constr.Areainmunicipal

Newhousingunit

-38.6

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


beenpositivesofarthisyear

Chart1.19b– MͲonͲMchange FebvsJan2013,percent

2.8

-0.8

-67.6

1.9

39.1

20 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin4Q/2012,grew18.9%y growthforthewholeyearof2012 Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,the • ArecoveryinManufacturingandA • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporthasrecovered,whileImport • MonetaryandFiscalpoliciesaresti • Businessesweremoreoptimistic,I • BOTandFiscalPolicyOfficerevised between4.4Ͳ5.3%for2013and4.6

• Unemploymentratedecreasedto0 countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• Headlineinflationdroppedto2.4% levelbyhistoricalandinternationa • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban system’sNPLdecreasedaspercent • Budgetdeficitforthefirst3month lastyear.Publicdebtisincreasingb • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBcontinuedtoappre




yͲoͲy,amassivelevel,thankstolastyearlowbase;whilethe was6.4%,higherthantheconsensusprojections. hegrowthwasdrivenbyallkeyexpenditures egrowthwasdrivenbytheresurgenceofManufacturing AgricultureproductioninMarch ntcontinuetheirstronggrowth,evenwithadipinMarch tgrewless.Touristarrivalsgrewstrongly. illproͲgrowth,butlesssothisyear ndustriesmorepessimisticandConsumerslesspessimistic duptheirgrowthprojections;consensusprojectionisnow 6Ͳ5.0%for2014

0.62%inFebruary,averylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

%inApril,whileCoreinflationdroppedto1.2%,aratherlow lstandards nk’scapitalratiodroppedslightlyto15.7%inFebruary.Total ttototalloanin1Q13. hsof2013improvedsignificantlycomparedtosameperiod butnottooworryingjustyet. rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot eciateinApril.

21


Exporthasincreasedslightlyinth byMetalandAutomotive

Chart5.05a– YTDannualchangeinExportin First3monthsof2013vs thatof2012,percent Totalexport Metal Opticalinstru Automotive Chemicals Electrical PetroͲchemical Othermanufacturing Toiletries Machinery Furniture Electronics Aircrafts Agriculture Apparels Forestry Jewellery Footware Agroproducts Photoinstru Petroleum Mining Fishery Otherexport ReͲexports

0.4 50.4 15.2 12.5 11.7 9.3 7.9 2.6 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -2.3 -3.5 -3.9 -4.6 -5.3 -5.6 -9.7 -19.3 -20.5 -80.0 -99.8

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


hefirst3months,drivenmainly Baht Chart5.05b– Sectoralcontributions Contributionstototalexportgrowth Totalexport Metal Automotive Electrical Chemicals PetroͲchemical Opticalinstru Othermanufacturing Machinery Toiletries Furniture Aircrafts Electronics ReͲexports Footware Forestry Agriculture Photoinstru Apparels Jewellery Mining Fishery Petroleum Agroproducts Otherexport

0.4 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.7 -2.6

22 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


DecreaseinexporttoNAFTA,Jap ofthisyear Chart5.07a– Exportbycountry PercentoftotalexportinTHBterm

᪛ 7.1 (Trilli

100% =

᪛ 5.9

᪛ 5.2

᪛ 6.1

᪛ 6.7

MiddleEast

5.4

5.7

5.0

4.7

5.1

EU

13.2

11.9

11.3

10.9

9.5

11.3

10.3

10.5

10.7

10.2

11.7

11.1

11.3

12.7

12.2 18.4

18.1

17.4

18.1

21.0

21.0

Japan NAFTA Restof theworld

16.6

EastAsia exͲJapan

18.3

20.1

20.4

ASEAN

22.5

21.3

23.0

24.3

24.7

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


anandROWinthefirst3months

Chart5.07b– ChangeinExport InTHBterm,First3monthsof2013vs 2012

ion)

EastAsiaexJapan

2.8%

EU

2.8%

ASEAN

2.0%

MiddleEast

1.5%

NAFTA

-0.4%

Japan

-2.1%

Restoftheworld

-4.2%

23 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Othersimporthasgainedmoresh

Chart5.08– Importbyeconomicclassificatio PercentoftotalimportinBahtterm Ѯ 6.0

Ѯ 4.6

Ѯ 5.9

Others

8.0

7.8

10.2

Capitalgoods

19.3

22.3

20.9

Intermediate– NonͲFuel

44.8

43.0

44.0

IntermediateͲ Fuel

20.7

18.6

17.4

Consumer goods

7.1

8.3

7.5

08FY

09FY

10FY

100% =

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


harethisyear

n

4

Y

Ѯ 7.0

Ѯ 7.7

12.4

10.9

21.3

24.6

Ѯ 2.0

(Trillion)

16.5

23.3

40.0

37.6

18.9

19.1

17.4

7.5

7.8

7.9

11FY

12FY

13/3MO

35.0

24 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Othersimporthascontributedm 2013

Chart5.09a– YTDannualchangeinImportin First3monthsof2013vs 2012,percent

4.8

Totalimport

43.0

Others

Consumergoods

6.4

Capitalgoods

3.5

IntermediateͲNonfuel

-1.4

IntermediateͲFuel

-6.2

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


osttoimportgrowthsofarin

nBaht Chart5.09b– Sectoralcontributions Contributionstototalimportgrowth

4.8

Totalimport

5.2

Others

0.8

Capitalgoods

0.5

Consumergoods

IntermediateͲNonfuel

IntermediateͲFuel

-0.5

-1.2

25 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CumulativeFDIinthefirst2mont sameperiodlastyear Chart5.14– ForeignDirectInvestment MillionUSD 11,331

9,460

9,112 8,547 7,778

4,853

06FY

07FY

(*) Preliminary figures

Source: BOT

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY


thsof2013isstilllowerthanthe

MonthlycumulativeFDI* 10,000 9,000

2012 8,000

8,617

12FY

7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000

2013

0

J

F M A M J

J

A S O N D

26 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


BOI’snetapplicationforthefirst slightlylessthantheaverageann

Chart5.15– BOInetapplicationofforeigndi BillionBaht

CAGR

21.5%

396 351 297 236

08FY

09FY

10FY

Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%)

Source: Board of Investment

11FY


3monthsof2013grew18%, nualgrowthoverthepast5years

irectinvestment*

648

18%

158

134

12FY

2012/3M

2013/3M

27 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Japanhasbeenthebiggestsource

Chart5.16– BOInetapplicationofFDI*break Percentoftotal

Others

17%

USA

10%

ANIEs

12%

3% 6% 6%

ASEAN

12%

17%

Europe

27%

23%

44%

Japan

22%

09FY Note: (*) Foreign investment (foreign equity>=10%) (**) ANIEs: Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea

Source: Board of Investment; CTE analysis

10FY


eofFDIforThailand

kdownbycountrygroup

11% 27%

4% 10%

2% 7% 8%

7% 10%

5% 3% 15% 14% 7%

7%

49%

11FY

58%

55%

12FY

2013/3M 28 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Touristarrivalsincreased19%int

Chart5.18– InternationalTouristArrivals Millionvisits

CAGR

8.4%

15.9 13.8 10.8

11.7

14.5

14.1

11.5

10.0

03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 10FY Source: Department of Tourism


thefirst3monthsof2013

Monthlycumulative 25.0

22.3 19.2

Y 11FY 12FY

20.0

2012

15.0

10.0

5.0

2013 0.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D

29 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Chinaaccountedforhalfoftheto farthisyear Chart5.19a InternationalTouristArrivals bycountryofnationality Percentoftotal Restof world

14.3

15.3

15.6

14.7

13.9

Americas

6.2

6.0

5.3

5.0

4.8

26.5

25.2

Europe

27.3

East Asia

28.7

27.9

52.1

50.0

51.2

53.8

56.1

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

Source: Department of Tourism; CTE analysis


otalincreaseintouristarrivalsso

Chart5.19b 10HighestChangeinInternationalTouristArrivals bycountryofnationality First3monthsof2013vs 2012,Thousands

542.4

China 120.6

Russia Japan Korea

%of totalchange

73.8 57.9

50% 11% 7% 5%

Singapore

39.7

4%

HongKong

39.3

4%

India

38.4

4%

Indonesia

33.9

3%

Taiwan

29.5

3%

Germany

27.5

3%

30 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin4Q/2012,grew18.9%y growthforthewholeyearof2012 Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,the • ArecoveryinManufacturingandA • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporthasrecovered,whileImport • MonetaryandFiscalpoliciesaresti • Businessesweremoreoptimistic,I • BOTandFiscalPolicyOfficerevised between4.4Ͳ5.3%for2013and4.6

• Unemploymentratedecreasedto0 countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• Headlineinflationdroppedto2.4% levelbyhistoricalandinternationa • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban system’sNPLdecreasedaspercent • Budgetdeficitforthefirst3month lastyear.Publicdebtisincreasingb • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBcontinuedtoappre




yͲoͲy,amassivelevel,thankstolastyearlowbase;whilethe was6.4%,higherthantheconsensusprojections. hegrowthwasdrivenbyallkeyexpenditures egrowthwasdrivenbytheresurgenceofManufacturing AgricultureproductioninMarch ntcontinuetheirstronggrowth,evenwithadipinMarch tgrewless.Touristarrivalsgrewstrongly. illproͲgrowth,butlesssothisyear ndustriesmorepessimisticandConsumerslesspessimistic duptheirgrowthprojections;consensusprojectionisnow 6Ͳ5.0%for2014

0.62%inFebruary,averylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

%inApril,whileCoreinflationdroppedto1.2%,aratherlow lstandards nk’scapitalratiodroppedslightlyto15.7%inFebruary.Total ttototalloanin1Q13. hsof2013improvedsignificantlycomparedtosameperiod butnottooworryingjustyet. rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot eciateinApril.

31


Nochangeinkeyinterestratesin

Chart3.01a– BOT’spolicyrate 3.10% 3.00% 2.90% 2.80% 2.70% May-12

2.60% Apr-13

Chart3.01c– Savingdepositrate* 10.00% 7.50% 5.00% Max

2.50%

Min May-12

0.00% Apr-13

Note:(*)AllCommercialBanksregisteredinThailand,excludingforeignbra

Source: Bank of Thailand


nApril

Chart3.01b– BIBORovernightrate 3.10% 3.00% 2.90% 2.80% 2.70% 2.60% Apr-13

May-12

Chart3.01d– CommercialbankMLR* Max

10.00% 7.50%

Min

5.00% 2.50%

May-12

anches

0.00% Apr-13

32 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Almost20%decreaseinfiscalexp 2013

Chart – Monthly cumulative Fiscal expenditure Billion Baht 3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

2013 0

J

F

M

Source:BankofThailand;CTEanalysis

A

M

J


penditureinthefirst3monthsof

2012

J

A

S

O

N

D

33

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin4Q/2012,grew18.9%y growthforthewholeyearof2012 Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,the • ArecoveryinManufacturingandA • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporthasrecovered,whileImport • MonetaryandFiscalpoliciesaresti • Businessesweremoreoptimistic,I • BOTandFiscalPolicyOfficerevised between4.4Ͳ5.3%for2013and4.6

• Unemploymentratedecreasedto0 countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• Headlineinflationdroppedto2.4% levelbyhistoricalandinternationa • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban system’sNPLdecreasedaspercent • Budgetdeficitforthefirst3month lastyear.Publicdebtisincreasingb • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBcontinuedtoappre




yͲoͲy,amassivelevel,thankstolastyearlowbase;whilethe was6.4%,higherthantheconsensusprojections. hegrowthwasdrivenbyallkeyexpenditures egrowthwasdrivenbytheresurgenceofManufacturing AgricultureproductioninMarch ntcontinuetheirstronggrowth,evenwithadipinMarch tgrewless.Touristarrivalsgrewstrongly. illproͲgrowth,butlesssothisyear ndustriesmorepessimisticandConsumerslesspessimistic duptheirgrowthprojections;consensusprojectionisnow 6Ͳ5.0%for2014

0.62%inFebruary,averylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

%inApril,whileCoreinflationdroppedto1.2%,aratherlow lstandards nk’scapitalratiodroppedslightlyto15.7%inFebruary.Total ttototalloanin1Q13. hsof2013improvedsignificantlycomparedtosameperiod butnottooworryingjustyet. rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot eciateinApril.

34


Businessesweremoreoptimistic pessimisticinMarch Chart1.21a– BusinessSentimentIndex* 100

Better 52.1

52.0

50.6

51.1

51.2

54.4

50

Worse

0 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13

Note:(*)Belowistheinterpretationoftheindex: Index=50indicatesthatbusinesssentimentremainsstable Index>50indicatesthatbusinesssentimenthasimproved Index<50indicatesthatbusinesssentimenthasworsened Source: Bank of Thailand, The Federation of Thai Industries


whileIndustriesweremore

Chart1.21bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; ThaiIndustriesSentimentIndex** 200

Better

100

93.0

95.2

98.8

97.3

95.5

93.5

Worse

0 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13

Note:(*)Belowistheinterpretationoftheindex: Index=100indicatesthatindustriessentimentremainsstable Index>100indicatesthatindustriessentimenthasimproved Index<100indicatesthatindustriessentimenthasworsened

35 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Consumerswereoptimisticonfut onjobandoverallinMarch Chart1.20aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; ConsumerConfidenceIndex 200

Better

100

Onfutureincom

Worse

0 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12 Sep-12

Note:(*)Theindexrangesfrom0to200 100meansconsumerconfidenceisequaltothoseofthepriorm Over100meansconsumerconfidenceisbetterthanthoseofth Under100meansconsumerconfidenceisworsethanthoseoft

Source: The Center for Economic and Business Forecasting, UTC


tureincomeandlesspessimistic

me

Onjob Overall

Oct-12

Nov-12 Dec-12

month hepriormonth thepriormonth

CC

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

36 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin4Q/2012,grew18.9%y growthforthewholeyearof2012 Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,the • ArecoveryinManufacturingandA • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporthasrecovered,whileImport • MonetaryandFiscalpoliciesaresti • Businessesweremoreoptimistic,I • BOTandFiscalPolicyOfficerevised between4.4Ͳ5.3%for2013and4.6

• Unemploymentratedecreasedto0 countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• Headlineinflationdroppedto2.4% levelbyhistoricalandinternationa • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban system’sNPLdecreasedaspercent • Budgetdeficitforthefirst3month lastyear.Publicdebtisincreasingb • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBcontinuedtoappre




yͲoͲy,amassivelevel,thankstolastyearlowbase;whilethe was6.4%,higherthantheconsensusprojections. hegrowthwasdrivenbyallkeyexpenditures egrowthwasdrivenbytheresurgenceofManufacturing AgricultureproductioninMarch ntcontinuetheirstronggrowth,evenwithadipinMarch tgrewless.Touristarrivalsgrewstrongly. illproͲgrowth,butlesssothisyear ndustriesmorepessimisticandConsumerslesspessimistic duptheirgrowthprojections;consensusprojectionisnow 6Ͳ5.0%for2014

0.62%inFebruary,averylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

%inApril,whileCoreinflationdroppedto1.2%,aratherlow lstandards nk’scapitalratiodroppedslightlyto15.7%inFebruary.Total ttototalloanin1Q13. hsof2013improvedsignificantlycomparedtosameperiod butnottooworryingjustyet. rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot eciateinApril.

37


BOTandFiscalPolicyOfficerevise for2013inApril Chart1.03aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; RealGDPgrowthprojections For2013,Annualpercentagechange 6.00

FPO NESDB

5.50

5.00

BOT 4.50

The Economist poll

4.00

3.50

3.00 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13

Forecast as of, month ending

Source: NESDB, Fiscal Policy Office, Bank of Thailand, The Econo


eduptheirgrowthprojections

omist

Chart1.03bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; RealGDPgrowthprojections For2014,Annualpercentagechange 6.00

5.50

BOT

The Economist poll

5.00

4.50

4.00

3.50

3.00 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13

Forecast as of, month ending 38 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;sgrowthprojectionsare majoreconomies

Chart1.04aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; RealGDPgrowthprojections 2013,Annual%change,asofApril27th 2013 China 6.5

India

6.3

Indonesia 4.6

Malaysia

4.4

Thailand

4.0

Pakistan Brazil

3.2

Taiwan

3.2

HongKong

3.1

SouthKorea

2.9

Russia

2.8 2.6

Australia

2.3

Singapore

2.1

US Japan EuroArea -0.5

Source: The Economist

1.3


erelativelyhighcomparedto

Chart1.04bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; RealGDPgrowthprojections 2014,Annual%change,asofApril27th 2013 8.4

7.8 7.2 6.1 5.3 4.6 4.7 3.7 4.0 4.2 3.8 3.4 3.1 3.7 2.7 1.3 0.9 39 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin4Q/2012,grew18.9%y growthforthewholeyearof2012 Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,the • ArecoveryinManufacturingandA • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporthasrecovered,whileImport • MonetaryandFiscalpoliciesaresti • Businessesweremoreoptimistic,I • BOTandFiscalPolicyOfficerevised between4.4Ͳ5.3%for2013and4.6

• Unemploymentratedecreasedto0 countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• Headlineinflationdroppedto2.4% levelbyhistoricalandinternationa • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban system’sNPLdecreasedaspercent • Budgetdeficitforthefirst3month lastyear.Publicdebtisincreasingb • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBcontinuedtoappre




yͲoͲy,amassivelevel,thankstolastyearlowbase;whilethe was6.4%,higherthantheconsensusprojections. hegrowthwasdrivenbyallkeyexpenditures egrowthwasdrivenbytheresurgenceofManufacturing AgricultureproductioninMarch ntcontinuetheirstronggrowth,evenwithadipinMarch tgrewless.Touristarrivalsgrewstrongly. illproͲgrowth,butlesssothisyear ndustriesmorepessimisticandConsumerslesspessimistic duptheirgrowthprojections;consensusprojectionisnow 6Ͳ5.0%for2014

0.62%inFebruary,averylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

%inApril,whileCoreinflationdroppedto1.2%,aratherlow lstandards nk’scapitalratiodroppedslightlyto15.7%inFebruary.Total ttototalloanin1Q13. hsof2013improvedsignificantlycomparedtosameperiod butnottooworryingjustyet. rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot eciateinApril.

40


Unemploymentratedecreasedto

Chart2.08â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Unemploymentrate Percent

2.16

2.07 1.83 1.51

1.49 1.38

1.38

1.04

03-Avg 04-Avg 05-Avg 06-Avg 07-Avg 08-Avg 09-Avg 10-Avg 1

Source: National Statistical Office, Bank of Thailand


o0.62%inFebruary

MonthlyAverage 1.20

1.00

0.80

2012 0.60

2013

0.40

0.68

0.66

11-Avg 12-Avg

0.20

0.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

41 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailand’sunemploymentrateis leadingeconomies Chart2.09– Unemploymentrate Latest,percent ThailandͲFeb SingaporeͲQ4 MalaysiaͲFeb

0.6 1.8 3.0

HongKongͲMar

3.5

SouthKoreaͲMar

3.5

ChinaͲQ4

4.1

TaiwanͲMar

4.2

JapanͲFeb

4.3

BrazilͲFeb AustraliaͲMar RussiaͲMar PakistanͲ2011 IndonesiaͲQ3 USͲMar IndiaͲ2012 EuroAreaͲFeb Source: The Economist


lowestcomparingtoother

5.6 5.6 5.7 6.0 6.1 7.6 9.9 12.0

42 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin4Q/2012,grew18.9%y growthforthewholeyearof2012 Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,the • ArecoveryinManufacturingandA • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporthasrecovered,whileImport • MonetaryandFiscalpoliciesaresti • Businessesweremoreoptimistic,I • BOTandFiscalPolicyOfficerevised between4.4Ͳ5.3%for2013and4.6

• Unemploymentratedecreasedto0 countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• Headlineinflationdroppedto2.4% levelbyhistoricalandinternationa • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban system’sNPLdecreasedaspercent • Budgetdeficitforthefirst3month lastyear.Publicdebtisincreasingb • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBcontinuedtoappre




yͲoͲy,amassivelevel,thankstolastyearlowbase;whilethe was6.4%,higherthantheconsensusprojections. hegrowthwasdrivenbyallkeyexpenditures egrowthwasdrivenbytheresurgenceofManufacturing AgricultureproductioninMarch ntcontinuetheirstronggrowth,evenwithadipinMarch tgrewless.Touristarrivalsgrewstrongly. illproͲgrowth,butlesssothisyear ndustriesmorepessimisticandConsumerslesspessimistic duptheirgrowthprojections;consensusprojectionisnow 6Ͳ5.0%for2014

0.62%inFebruary,averylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

%inApril,whileCoreinflationdroppedto1.2%,aratherlow lstandards nk’scapitalratiodroppedslightlyto15.7%inFebruary.Total ttototalloanin1Q13. hsof2013improvedsignificantlycomparedtosameperiod butnottooworryingjustyet. rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot eciateinApril.

43


Overallimprovementinincomed foronlyinBangkok Chart2.01â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Thailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;sGINIcoefficient 0.55

Overall 0.50

South

0.45

0.40

0.35

0.30

'88

'90

'92

'94

'96

'98

Note: (*) The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality of a distribution o It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1 Here, 0 corresponds to perfect income equality (i.e. everyone has and 1 corresponds to perfect income inequality (i.e. one person Therefore, the lower the ratio the better the income distribution

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB


distributioninThailand,except

NorthEast North Central Bangkok

'00

'02

'04

'06

'07

'09

'11

of income.

the same income) n has all the income, while everyone else has zero income). n.

44

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Slightimprovementofincomedis topandthebottom20% Chart2.02â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Quintilebyincome Percentoftotalincome

Top20% Bottom20%

11.9

13.3

14.9

14.1

13.5

Top20%

54.4

57.0

59.0

57.2

56.5

Second20%

20.6

19.5

18.9

19.7

19.9

Third20%

12.4

11.7

11.1

11.7

11.8

Forth20%

8.1

7.5

7.4

7.6

Bottom20%

4.6

4.3

7.1 4.0

4.1

4.2

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

Source: National Statistics Office, NESDB

5

1


stributionwhencomparedthe

13.1

14.6

13.4

12.2

14.4

12.8

11.8

11.1

56.1

57.5

56.0

54.7

56.0

54.6

54.1

54.2

19.8

19.8

20.1

20.3

20.2

20.5

20.4

19.5

12.0

11.5

12.1

12.5

12.2

12.6

12.7

12.8

7.8

7.7

8.0

7.7

8.0

8.3

8.6

4.3

7.3 4.0

4.2

4.5

3.9

4.3

4.6

4.9

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2007

2009

2011 45

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


DatafromWorldBanksuggeststh ThailandisnotasbadasinMalay Chart2.03â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Incomeequalityintheworld

Ratiooftheshareofnationalincomegoingtotherichest20% Latest,selectedcountries Honduras Bolivia Comoros SouthAfrica Namibia Brazil Colombia Guatemala Seychelles CentralAfricanRepublic Paraguay Panama Zambia CostaRica ElSalvador Swaziland Chile Peru Qatar Ecuador Nigeria Venezuela,RB Mexico Malaysia DominicanRepublic

2 26. 25.3 21.8 20.6 20.1 19.6 18.8 18.0 17.3 17.1 16.6 14.5 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.3 12.5 12.2 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.3

Source: The World Bank; CTE analysis


hatincomeequalityproblemin ysiaorChina

%totheshareofthepoorest20%

29.7 27.8 .7

Argentina Kenya China Philippines Turkey RussianFederation Thailand Iran,IslamicRep. SriLanka Bhutan Maldives Lithuania Malawi Mongolia Cambodia LaoPDR Vietnam Indonesia Nepal India Bangladesh Egypt,ArabRep. Pakistan Afghanistan SlovakRepublic

11.3 11.0 9.6 8.3 7.9 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.6

46

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin4Q/2012,grew18.9%y growthforthewholeyearof2012 Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,the • ArecoveryinManufacturingandA • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporthasrecovered,whileImport • MonetaryandFiscalpoliciesaresti • Businessesweremoreoptimistic,I • BOTandFiscalPolicyOfficerevised between4.4Ͳ5.3%for2013and4.6

• Unemploymentratedecreasedto0 countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• Headlineinflationdroppedto2.4% levelbyhistoricalandinternationa • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban system’sNPLdecreasedaspercent • Budgetdeficitforthefirst3month lastyear.Publicdebtisincreasingb • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBcontinuedtoappre




yͲoͲy,amassivelevel,thankstolastyearlowbase;whilethe was6.4%,higherthantheconsensusprojections. hegrowthwasdrivenbyallkeyexpenditures egrowthwasdrivenbytheresurgenceofManufacturing AgricultureproductioninMarch ntcontinuetheirstronggrowth,evenwithadipinMarch tgrewless.Touristarrivalsgrewstrongly. illproͲgrowth,butlesssothisyear ndustriesmorepessimisticandConsumerslesspessimistic duptheirgrowthprojections;consensusprojectionisnow 6Ͳ5.0%for2014

0.62%inFebruary,averylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

%inApril,whileCoreinflationdroppedto1.2%,aratherlow lstandards nk’scapitalratiodroppedslightlyto15.7%inFebruary.Total ttototalloanin1Q13. hsof2013improvedsignificantlycomparedtosameperiod butnottooworryingjustyet. rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot eciateinApril.

47


ExceptforonlyBangkok,poverty havedeclinedoverthelastdecad Chart2.04a

Chart2.04b

ThailandPovertyLine

Numberofpoorpe

Baht/month/person

Million

3,500

25

3,000 20 2,500 15

2,000

1,500

10

1,000 5 500

0

0 '01

'03

'05

'07

'09

Legendcolor:

'11

Overall

'01

'03

Bangkok

'05

Centr

Note: Before 2006, poverty survey was normally conducted every 2 years. For the mi

Source: NESDB


headcountandpovertyrate de Chart2.04c

eople

PercentofPoorpeople Percentageoftotalpopulation 60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% '07

ral

'09

North

'11

'01

'03

NorthEast

South

'05

'07

ssing year, we use the average value between the prior and later years

'09

'11

48

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


ManycountriesinAsiaandespec oftheirpopulationsearninglesst

Chart2.05â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Povertyintheworld,selectedco

Povertyheadcountratioat$2aday(PPP)(%ofpopulation),L Congo,Dem.Rep. Madagascar Nigeria Ethiopia Bangladesh TimorͲLeste India

6

LaoPDR 60.2

Pakistan

57.3

Nepal

53.3

Cambodia 46.1

Indonesia

43.4

Vietnam

41.5

Philippines 31.3

SouthAfrica China

29.8

Bhutan

29.8

SriLanka

29.1

Iraq Colombia Source: The World Bank

21.4 15.8


ciallyASEAN,stillhavemajority than$2.00aday

ountries

Latest 95.2 92.6 84.5 77.6 76.5 72.8 68.7

66.0

15.4

Egypt,ArabRep. Venezuela,RB

12.9

Peru

12.7 10.8

Brazil

8.0

Iran,IslamicRep. Mexico

5.2

Thailand

4.6

Turkey

4.2

Chile

2.7

Malaysia

2.3

Argentina

1.9

Romania

1.7

Bulgaria

0.4

Hungary

0.4

Montenegro

0.3

Poland

0.2

SlovakRepublic

0.1

Slovenia

0.1

Croatia

0.1

RussianFederation

0.1

49

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


AnaverageThaiisslightlypoorer morethanthreetimesricherthan

Chart2.06â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNIpercapita,selectedcountrie 2011,Atlasmethod(currentUS$) Norway(1) Qatar(2) Luxembourg(3) Switzerland(4) Denmark(5) Sweden(6) Netherlands(7) US(8) Finland(9) Austria(10) Belgium(11) Canada(12) Japan(13) Germany(14) Singapore(15) France(16) UAE(17) Ireland(18) UK(19) Italy(20) HongKong(21) Iceland(22) Spain(23) Israel(24) Greece(25)

Source: The World Bank

60,390 53,230 49,730 48,450 48,420 48,300 46,160 45,560 45,180 43,980 42,930 42,420 40,760 38,580 37,780 35,330 35,160 35,020 30,990 28,930 25,030


rthananaverageChinesebut nanaverageIndian

es

()=Worldrank 88,890 80,440 78,130

76,380

CzechRepublic(29) Hungary(36) Brazil(46) Turkey(47) Argentina(49) Mexico(51) Malaysia(53) SouthAfrica(65) Colombia(69) China(78) Thailand(83) Ecuador(85) Ukraine(100) Indonesia(103) Iraq(108) Egypt(109) SriLanka(110) Philippines(113) Bhutan(115) India(122) Vietnam(124) Nigeria(127) LaoPDR(130) Cambodia(139) Bangladesh(142)

18,520 12,730 10,720 10,410 9,740 9,240 8,420 6,960 6,110 4,930 4,420 4,140 3,120 2,940 2,640 2,600 2,580 2,210 2,070 1,410 1,260 1,200 1,130 830 770 50

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


UsingPurchasingPowerParity,Th to81st,withGNIpercapitaalmos

Chart2.07â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GNIpercapita,selectedcountrie 2011,PPP(currentinternational$) Qatar(1) Luxembourg(2) Norway(3) Singapore(4) Switzerland(5) HongKong(6) US(7) UAE(8) Netherlands(9) Sweden(10) Austria(11) Denmark(12) Germany(13) Canada(14) Belgium(15) Australia(16) Finland(17) UK(18) France(19) Japan(20) Ireland(21) Italy(22) Spain(23) Iceland(24) Korea,Rep.(25)

Source: The World Bank

64,260 61,460 59,380 52,570 52,350 48,820 47,890 43,140 42,200 42,050 41,900 40,230 39,660 39,190 38,110 37,670 36,010 35,910 35,330 34,180 32,400 31,400 31,020 30,370


hailandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;srankimprovedslightly stthesameasChina

es

()=Worldrank 86,440

Israel(26) Greece(30) SaudiArabia(31) CzechRepublic(33) Russia(36) Croatia(40) Turkey(44) Malaysia(47) Mexico(48) Mauritius(55) Brazil(63) SouthAfrica(68) China(80) Thailand(81) Bhutan(92) SriLanka(93) Indonesia(102) Philippines(106) India(112) Vietnam(116) LaoPDR(119) Cambodia(126) Bangladesh(132) Nepal(145) Ethiopia(150)

27,110 25,100 24,700 24,370 20,560 18,760 16,940 15,650 15,390 14,330 11,420 10,710 8,390 8,360 5,570 5,520 4,500 4,140 3,590 3,250 2,580 2,230 1,940 1,260 1,110 51

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Increasingtrendinhouseholdinc debtserviceyearhasreducedfro Chart2.10aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthlyincomeperhousehold Average,Baht

14,963

2004

17,787

18,660

2006

2007

20,903

2009

23,236

2011

Chart2.10bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Monthlyexpenditureperhouseh Average,Baht

12,297

2004

14,311

14,500

2006

2007

16,205

2009

Source: National Statistic Office survey; CTE analysis

17,403

2011


come,expenditureanddebt,but omtherecentpeakin2004

hold

Chart2.10c– Debtperhousehold Average,Baht

104,571

2004

116,585

116,681

2006

2007

134,699

134,900

2009

2011

Chart2.10d– Debtserviceyear* 3.3 2.8 2.3

2.4 1.9

2004

2006

2007

2009

2011

Note: (*) Avg. debt / (annual income – annual expenditure)

52

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin4Q/2012,grew18.9%y growthforthewholeyearof2012 Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,the • ArecoveryinManufacturingandA • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporthasrecovered,whileImport • MonetaryandFiscalpoliciesaresti • Businessesweremoreoptimistic,I • BOTandFiscalPolicyOfficerevised between4.4Ͳ5.3%for2013and4.6

• Unemploymentratedecreasedto0 countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• Headlineinflationdroppedto2.4% levelbyhistoricalandinternationa • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban system’sNPLdecreasedaspercent • Budgetdeficitforthefirst3month lastyear.Publicdebtisincreasingb • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBcontinuedtoappre




yͲoͲy,amassivelevel,thankstolastyearlowbase;whilethe was6.4%,higherthantheconsensusprojections. hegrowthwasdrivenbyallkeyexpenditures egrowthwasdrivenbytheresurgenceofManufacturing AgricultureproductioninMarch ntcontinuetheirstronggrowth,evenwithadipinMarch tgrewless.Touristarrivalsgrewstrongly. illproͲgrowth,butlesssothisyear ndustriesmorepessimisticandConsumerslesspessimistic duptheirgrowthprojections;consensusprojectionisnow 6Ͳ5.0%for2014

0.62%inFebruary,averylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

%inApril,whileCoreinflationdroppedto1.2%,aratherlow lstandards nk’scapitalratiodroppedslightlyto15.7%inFebruary.Total ttototalloanin1Q13. hsof2013improvedsignificantlycomparedtosameperiod butnottooworryingjustyet. rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot eciateinApril.

53


BothHeadlineandCoreinflation

Chart3.07a– YͲoͲYchangeinCPI Percent 4.00% 3.50%

Headline

3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50%

Core*

1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Nov-12 Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

Note: (*) exclude raw food and energy

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis


ndecreasedagaininApril

Chart3.07b– YͲoͲYchangeinCPIbyproduct April2013,percent 13.1

Veg&fruit 7.5

Tobacco&alcohol

6.2

Meat Energy

3.1

Housing&furnishing

3.1

Eggs&milk

3.1 2.1

Preparedfoodathome

1.6

Nonalcoholicbeverage Foodawayfromhome

1.1

Medicalcare

1.0

Rice

0.7

Apparelandfootware

0.7

Recreation&Education

0.6

Seasoning

0.5

Transport&Commu

-0.1

54 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailand’sinflationisratheronth economies Chart3.08– ConsumerPriceIndex Annualpercentagechange

Latest

IndiaͲMar RussiaͲMar PakistanͲMar BrazilͲMar

5

IndonesiaͲMar HongKongͲMar

3.6

SingaporeͲMar

3.5

AustraliaͲQ1

2.5

ThailandͲApr

2.4 2.1

ChinaͲMar EuroAreaͲMar

1.7

MalaysiaͲMar

1.6

USͲMar

1.5

TaiwanͲMar

1.4

SouthKoreaͲMar

1.3

JapanͲFeb Note: (*) The Economist Poll Source: The Economist

-0.6


helowsidecomparedtoother

2013* 10.4

9.4

7.0

6.3

6.6

7.2 6.3

6.6

5.7

5.9 4.3 3.8 2.6 3.1 4.3 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.5 2.3 0.1

55 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


DeeperdeflationforProducerpri

Chart3.09a– YͲoͲYchangeinPPI Percent 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Nov-12 Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

Source: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices; CTE analysis


icelevelinApril

Chart3.09b– YͲoͲYchangeinPPIbyproduct April2013,percent Livestocks Fishing Food Metal Mechinery Leather&footware Transportequip NonͲmetallicmineral Crop Wood Pulp&paper Forestry Forestry Textile -0.3 Chemical -0.6 Basicmetals -4.1 Othermanugoods -5.6 Petroluemproducts -9.8 Rubber&plastic -12.3 Energy -13.0

24.3 20.4 4.4 3.0 2.5 2.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0

56 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin4Q/2012,grew18.9%y growthforthewholeyearof2012 Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,the • ArecoveryinManufacturingandA • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporthasrecovered,whileImport • MonetaryandFiscalpoliciesaresti • Businessesweremoreoptimistic,I • BOTandFiscalPolicyOfficerevised between4.4Ͳ5.3%for2013and4.6

• Unemploymentratedecreasedto0 countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• Headlineinflationdroppedto2.4% levelbyhistoricalandinternationa • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban system’sNPLdecreasedaspercent • Budgetdeficitforthefirst3month lastyear.Publicdebtisincreasingb • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBcontinuedtoappre




yͲoͲy,amassivelevel,thankstolastyearlowbase;whilethe was6.4%,higherthantheconsensusprojections. hegrowthwasdrivenbyallkeyexpenditures egrowthwasdrivenbytheresurgenceofManufacturing AgricultureproductioninMarch ntcontinuetheirstronggrowth,evenwithadipinMarch tgrewless.Touristarrivalsgrewstrongly. illproͲgrowth,butlesssothisyear ndustriesmorepessimisticandConsumerslesspessimistic duptheirgrowthprojections;consensusprojectionisnow 6Ͳ5.0%for2014

0.62%inFebruary,averylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

%inApril,whileCoreinflationdroppedto1.2%,aratherlow lstandards nk’scapitalratiodroppedslightlyto15.7%inFebruary.Total ttototalloanin1Q13. hsof2013improvedsignificantlycomparedtosameperiod butnottooworryingjustyet. rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot eciateinApril.

57


Banksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;capitalratiodroppedto15 consideredhighbyhistoricalstan Chart3.04â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Capitalratioofallcommercialba %ofriskassets,atyearend

15.8%

16.1%

14.9% 13.4%

13.3%

1 14.0%

13.9%

12.4%

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Note:(*)AllCommercialBanksregisteredinThailand,excludingforeignbra

Source: Bank of Thailand


5.7%inFebruarybutstill ndard

nks* MonthEnd 16.5%

16.2%

14.8%

16.0%

2013

15.5%

2012

15.0%

14.5%

2011

anches

2012

14.0%

J F M A M J J A S O N D

58 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


GrossNPLincreasedinamountbu totalloaninthefirstquarterthis

Chart3.03a– TotalFinancialInstitutions’Gros BillionBaht

477

05YE

445

06YE

458

07YE

401

08YE

380

09YE

317

10Y

Chart3.03b– TotalFinancialInstitutions’Gros PercentageofTotalLoans 8.16%

7.47%

7.31% 5.29%

4.85%

3.60

05YE

06YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

07YE

08YE

09YE

10Y


utdecreasedaspercentageof year

ssNPLsOutstanding

7

YE

270

256

11YE

12YE

257

2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3

ssNPLsOutstanding

0%

YE

2.75%

11YE

2.26%

12YE

2.18%

2013/Q1 2013/Q2 2013/Q3 59 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Bank’sloancontinuedtoincrease tightenedinFebruary Chart3.02a– CommercialBanks’Loan THBbillion 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Au

Chart3.02b– CommercialBanks’Loan/Depos Percent 100% 95% 90.2%

92.8%

92.4%

91.9%

Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12

Jul-12

91.7%

9

90% 85% Mar-12

Source: Bank of Thailand

A


ewhileliquidityinthesystem

MͲoͲM

1.1% YͲoͲY

14.3%

ug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

93.1%

93.1%

Feb-13

it*ratio

90.8%

91.4%

Aug-12 Sep-12

91.1%

92.2%

Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13

93.9%

Feb-13

60 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailandisoneofthemanycoun rates Chart3.05– Realinterestrates Percent,asofApr27th 2013

3MriskͲfreeinterestrates 9.6

Pakistan India

7.7

Brazil

7.5

Russia

7.4 4.9

Indonesia

3.9

China Australia

3.1

Malaysia

3.1 2.8

SouthKorea

2.5

Thailand Taiwan

0.9

HongKong

0.5

Singapore

0.3

US

0.3

EuroArea

0.2

Japan

0.2

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist


trieswithnegativerealinterest

=

Expected2013inflation*

Realinterestrates

7.2

2.4 9.4

-1.7

6.3

1.2

6.3

1.1

5.7

-0.8

4.3

-0.4

2.6

0.5

2.2

0.9

2.3

0.5

3.1

-0.6

1.5

-0.6 4.3 3.8

1.9 1.7 0.1

-3.8 -3.5 -1.6 -1.5 0.1

61

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


SETincreasedinAprildespitenet Chart3.06aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; MonthlyperformanceofSETindex Percentchangefrompriormonth,atmonthend

5.1%

5.9% 4.6%

1.9% Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

1.3%

2.4%

Mar-13

Apr-13

Chart3.06bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Cumulativenetforeignfundflow SET&MAI,BillionBaht,Monthend 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 -20.0

E

J-13

F-13 M-13 A-13 M-13 J-13

J-13

A-13 S-13 O-13 N-13 D-13

Source: SET, The Economist; CTE analysis


tforeignfundoutflow Chart3.06câ&#x20AC;&#x201C; ChangesinceDec31st2012 Percent,asofApr27th 2013 33.2%

Japan(Nikkei225) 16.1%

Indonesia(JSX) US(DJIA)

12.0%

Thailand(SET)

11.6%

Pakistan(KSE)

11.1%

US(S&P500)

10.7%

UK(FTSE100)

9.1%

Australia(AllOrd.)

9.0%

US(NAScomp)

8.3%

China(SSEB,$terms)

6.2%

France(CAC40)

5.5%

Singapore(STI)

4.9%

Taiwan(TWI)

4.2% 3.3%

EuroArea(FTSEEuro100)

1.9%

Germany(DAX)

1.1%

Malaysia(KLSE) India(BSE)

-1.3%

HK(HangSeng) -2.1% China(SSEA) -2.3% SKorea(KOSPI) -3.1%

62 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin4Q/2012,grew18.9%y growthforthewholeyearof2012 Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,the • ArecoveryinManufacturingandA • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporthasrecovered,whileImport • MonetaryandFiscalpoliciesaresti • Businessesweremoreoptimistic,I • BOTandFiscalPolicyOfficerevised between4.4Ͳ5.3%for2013and4.6

• Unemploymentratedecreasedto0 countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• Headlineinflationdroppedto2.4% levelbyhistoricalandinternationa • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban system’sNPLdecreasedaspercent • Budgetdeficitforthefirst3month lastyear.Publicdebtisincreasingb • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBcontinuedtoappre




yͲoͲy,amassivelevel,thankstolastyearlowbase;whilethe was6.4%,higherthantheconsensusprojections. hegrowthwasdrivenbyallkeyexpenditures egrowthwasdrivenbytheresurgenceofManufacturing AgricultureproductioninMarch ntcontinuetheirstronggrowth,evenwithadipinMarch tgrewless.Touristarrivalsgrewstrongly. illproͲgrowth,butlesssothisyear ndustriesmorepessimisticandConsumerslesspessimistic duptheirgrowthprojections;consensusprojectionisnow 6Ͳ5.0%for2014

0.62%inFebruary,averylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

%inApril,whileCoreinflationdroppedto1.2%,aratherlow lstandards nk’scapitalratiodroppedslightlyto15.7%inFebruary.Total ttototalloanin1Q13. hsof2013improvedsignificantlycomparedtosameperiod butnottooworryingjustyet. rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot eciateinApril.

63


Hugegovernmentbudgetdeficitr slightlybetterthanin2009

Chart4.1â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Governmentbudgetandcashbala Percent

Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp

1.4% 0.3% 0.4%

1.1%

0.0% 0.1% -0.5%-0.6%

-1.7 -2.0%

03FY

04FY

05FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

06FY

07FY


relativetoGDPin2012,only

anceaspercentageofnominalGDP

plus)

-0.3% -0.7%

-1.1%-1.1%

-1.3%

7% -2.6% -3.6% -4.0% -4.4%

08FY

09FY

-4.1%

10FY

11FY

12FY 64

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Budgetdeficitforthefirst3mont significantlycomparedtosamep Chart4.2â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Governmentbudgetbalance BillionBaht

1

Revenue 1,013

1,109

16

0

Budget balance -996

-1,109

1,241

-36

-1,277

1,390

1,455

1,498

-174

-100

-1,629

-1,598

1,484

110 -364

-1,280

Expenditure

-1,849

-1

03FY 04FY 05FY 06FY 07FY 08FY 09FY 1 Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


thsof2013improved eriodlastyear

Monthlycumulative Budgetbalance 0.0 ,751

1,902

2,079 -50.0

2013

-100.0 -150.0

-75

-28 -410

-200.0

2012

-250.0 -300.0

1,825

-1,930

-350.0 -2,489

-400.0 -450.0

0FY 11FY 12FY

J F M A M J J A S O N D

65 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Apartfrom2010and2011,there betweenbudgetandcashbalance Chart4.3â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Governmentcashbalance BillionBaht

Budget cash balance Overall Cash balance (including non-budgetary deficit/ surp

110 16 24

0

88

8 -36 -45

-1 -144 -174

03FY

04FY

05FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

06FY

07FY


werenotmuchdifferences e

plus)

-28

-75

00 -96

-130

-137

-110

-264

-364 -401

-410 -466

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

'13/3mo

66 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailandbudgetdeficitin2013is GDP

Chart4.4â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GovernmentBudgetbalanceaspe 2013*,percent SouthKorea HongKong Singapore Russia Australia Indonesia Taiwan China Brazil EuroArea Thailand Malaysia India

-

US

-5. -6.4

Pakistan Japan Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist

-8.9


expectedtobearound2.9%of

ercentageofGDP 2.6 2.3 0.7 -0.5 -1.0 -1.6 -1.7 -2.0 -2.7 -2.8 -2.9 -4.2

-5.1 4

67 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


AslightincreaseinPublicdebtso

Chart4.5aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; CompositionofPublicdebt THBTrillion 6.0

5.0

4.0

Publicdebtfrom StateEnterprises

3.0 BondtoCompensateFIDF'sLoss &Prefundingdebt 2.0

1.0 DirectGovernmentdebt 0.0 2009 10%

2010

2011

2012

Feb-13

8%

8%

7%

7%

Source: Public Debt Management Office

Ext as


ofarin2013

Chart4.5bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; CompositionofPublicdebt AspercentageofnominalGDP 50% 45% 40%

Publicdebtfrom StateEnterprises

35% 30% 25%

BondtoCompensateFIDF'sLoss &Prefundingdebt

20% 15% 10%

DirectGovernmentdebt

5% 0%

2009

ternaldebt percentoftotal

2010

2011

2012

Feb-13

68 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Thailand’spublicdebtisnothigh standard Chart4.6– Publicdebtintheworld PercentageofGDP,2012orlatest 1Japan 2Zimbabwe 3Greece 6Lebanon 8Italy 9Portugal 10Iceland 12Ireland 14Singapore 15Belgium 18France 19UnitedKingdom 20Egypt 21Canada 22Spain 25Hungary 27Germany 28SriLanka 31Malta 33Israel 35UnitedStates 37Morocco 39Netherlands 41Croatia 43Bhutan

219 203 161 128 126 120 119 118 107 101 89 89 85 84 83 81 81 79 77 74 74 72 69 66 64

Source: CIA fact book; Public Debt Management Office for Thailand’s dat


comparedtointernational

9

ta

Intâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;l rule ofthumb <60%of GDP 52Bahrain 53Malaysia 54Brazil 58Switzerland 60India 61Philippines 64Venezuela 66Vietnam 67Laos 74Denmark 76Thailand 79CzechRepublic 81SouthAfrica 84NewZealand 85Argentina 87Turkey 92Taiwan 95China 100Mexico 106Korea,South 109Bangladesh 113HongKong 119Australia 121Indonesia 139Russia

56 56 55 52 52 51 49 48 48 45 44 44 43 42 42 40 39 39 35 34 32 30 27 25 11

69

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


CONTENT

Executivesummary

Growth

Income distribution

Stability

• RealGDPin4Q/2012,grew18.9%y growthforthewholeyearof2012 Ͳ Ontheexpenditureside,th Ͳ Ontheproductionside,the • ArecoveryinManufacturingandA • Privateconsumptionandinvestme • Exporthasrecovered,whileImport • MonetaryandFiscalpoliciesaresti • Businessesweremoreoptimistic,I • BOTandFiscalPolicyOfficerevised between4.4Ͳ5.3%for2013and4.6

• Unemploymentratedecreasedto0 countries • Thailand’sIncomedistributionisam improvementoverthepasttwode • ExceptforonlyBangkok,povertyh decade

• Headlineinflationdroppedto2.4% levelbyhistoricalandinternationa • Bankingsystemisquitestable.Ban system’sNPLdecreasedaspercent • Budgetdeficitforthefirst3month lastyear.Publicdebtisincreasingb • BalanceofPaymentsofarthisyear dangerous.THBcontinuedtoappre




yͲoͲy,amassivelevel,thankstolastyearlowbase;whilethe was6.4%,higherthantheconsensusprojections. hegrowthwasdrivenbyallkeyexpenditures egrowthwasdrivenbytheresurgenceofManufacturing AgricultureproductioninMarch ntcontinuetheirstronggrowth,evenwithadipinMarch tgrewless.Touristarrivalsgrewstrongly. illproͲgrowth,butlesssothisyear ndustriesmorepessimisticandConsumerslesspessimistic duptheirgrowthprojections;consensusprojectionisnow 6Ͳ5.0%for2014

0.62%inFebruary,averylowlevelcomparedtoother

mongtheworstinAsiabuttherehasbeenoverall ecades,exceptforonlyinBangkok eadcountandpovertyratehavedeclinedoverthelast

%inApril,whileCoreinflationdroppedto1.2%,aratherlow lstandards nk’scapitalratiodroppedslightlyto15.7%inFebruary.Total ttototalloanin1Q13. hsof2013improvedsignificantlycomparedtosameperiod butnottooworryingjustyet. rispositive.Externaldebthasbeenincreasingbutstillnot eciateinApril.

70


PositiveBalanceofPaymentsint largelytonetserviceincome

Chart5.01â&#x20AC;&#x201C; BalanceofPaymentdecompositio BillionUSD

31.3 24.7

24.1

1.2 08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis

5.3 12FY

2.6 13/3mo


hefirst3monthsof2013due TradeBalance(F.O.B)

on

32.6

29.8

17.3

17.0

8.3 -0.2

08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13/3mo

Netserviceincome&transfer 1.5

+

-15.2

-10.7

08FY

09FY

-19.7

10FY

-11.1

-5.6

11FY

12FY

13/3mo

NetCapitalMovement+errorsandomissions 22.5

21.3 2.2

2.5

1.3

12FY

13/3mo

-4.7 08FY

09FY

10FY

11FY

71 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


StrongAsianexportenginesrefle surplus Chart5.02– CurrentAccountbalance As%of2013GDP* SingaporeͲQ4

1

TaiwanͲQ4 5.9%

MalaysiaͲQ4

4.5%

SouthKoreaͲFeb RussiaͲQ1

1.9%

ChinaͲQ1

1.9%

ThailandͲQ4

1.6%

EuroAreaͲFeb

1.6%

JapanͲFeb

0.9%

HongKongͲQ4

0.7%

PakistanͲQ1 IndonesiaͲQ4

-0.9% -2.1%

USͲQ4

-2.8%

BrazilͲMar

-3.0%

AustraliaͲQ4 IndiaͲQ4

-3.8% -4.3%

Note: (*) The Economist Poll

Source: The Economist; actual figures for Thailand from Bank of T


ectinginhugecurrentaccount

Last12months,USDBillion 51.4

19.5%

49.6

1.0%

Thailand and NESDB

19.5 48.6 63.5 193.1 2.7 173.2 53.8 2.9 -2.7 -24.2 -475.0 -67.0 -56.5 -93.4

72 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Negativetradebalancesofarin2 export Chart5.03â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Tradebalance*decomposition BillionBaht

593

257

-111 -263

-275

-647 8FY

9FY

10FY

11FY

12FY

13/3MO

Note: (*) Not equal to the one in Balance of Payment decomposition due to few (**) Excluding Electricity and aircraft export, adjustment for Balance of p (***) Excluding Electricity and military import, adjustment for Balance of p

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


2013asimportgrewfasterthan

Export**

5,851

6,113

6,708

7,091

5,195

1,700 8FY

Ͳ

9FY

10FY

11FY

12FY 13/3MO

Import***

6,983

5,962

7,739

5,857 4,602 1,963

8FY

9FY

w adjustments ayment and exchange rate conversion payment and exchange rate conversion

10FY

11FY

12FY 13/3MO

73 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Externaldebtlevelincreasedinb terms Chart5.10a– ExternalDebtLevel BillionUSD 160 120 80 40 0 03YE

04YE

05YE

06YE

07Y

Chart5.10b– ExternalDebtas%ofGDP

40.3%

40.9%

03YE

04YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

37.0%

38.5%

05YE

06YE

35.4%

07YE


bothabsoluteandrelativetoGDP

YE

%

E

08YE

09YE

31.4%

28.8%

08YE

09YE

10YE

11YE

35.2%

33.7%

10YE

11YE

12/4Q

38.9%

12/4Q

74 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


MorepublicdebtandmorelongͲ compositionin2012 Chart5.11a– Externaldebtbreakdown Privatevs Public Private Public = General Government and Monetary Authorities

4%

96%

08YE

8%

92%

09YE

Source: Bank of Thailand

13%

15%

20%

87%

85%

80%

10YE

11YE

12/4Q


termdebtinexternaldebt

Chart5.11b– Externaldebtbreakdown LongͲTermvs ShortͲTerm Long term Short term

44%

44%

56%

56%

08YE

09YE

50%

50%

10YE

46%

45%

54%

55%

11YE

12/4Q

75 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


Capabilitytorepayexternaldebt concernasdebtserviceratioislo Chart5.12aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Internationalreserves As%ofSTexternaldebt 418% 372% 340%

330%

299% 257%

07YE

08YE

09YE

10YE

11YE

12/4Q

Note: (*) Debt service payment / Export of goods and services

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


deterioratedbutnotyeta owandreservesathealthylevel Chart5.12bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Debtserviceratio* Percent

10.3%

7.7%

07FY

08FY

7.3%

09FY

3.7%

3.8%

4.0%

10FY

11FY

12/4Q

76 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


NetInternationalreservesdecrea stillconsideredexcessive Chart5.13aâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Internationalreserveslevel* Attheendofperiod,BillionUSD

54.4

55.9

2004

2005

106.5

118.0

2007

2008

73.9

2006

Chart5.13bâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; Internationalreservesasnumbe

9.1 6.9

2004

5.7

2005

6.9

2006

2007

7.9

2008

Note: (*) Including Net Forward position (**) For the last period using average monthly import value during

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


asedslightlysofarthisyearbut

191.7

206.4

205.8

201.5

2011

2012

Mar-13

10.0

9.6

2012

Mar-13

154.1

0

8

2009

2010

erofmonthsofimport** 13.8

12.6 10.8

8

2009

the last 12 months

2010

2011

77 www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


THBappreciatedanother1.7%in

Chart5.17a– NominalEffectiveExchangeRate 2007=100

114.0

Bahtappreciates

112.0

110.0

108.0

106.0

MͲoͲM

1.7%

Bahtdepreciates Apr-12

Jul-12

Oct-12

104.0

102.0

100.0

YͲoͲY

98.0

10.0%

96.0

Jan-13

94.0 Apr-13

Note: (*) Positive numbers mean the Baht has been depreciated against those currencies, the opposite applies to negative numbers USD = US$, GBP = Pound Sterling, EUR = Euro, JPY = Yen (per 100), CNY = Yuan Renminbi, SGD = Singapore $, MYR = Malaysia Ringgit, PHP = Philippines Peso, IDR = Indonesia Rupiah (per 1,000), INR = India Rupee, KRW = Korea Won, TWD = Taiwan $, VND = Vietnam Dong, MXN = Mexico Peso, AUD = Australia $

Source: Bank of Thailand; CTE analysis


April

e

0

Chart5.17b– YͲoͲYchangeinFXrate* Percentagechangeinavg.sellingrateasofApril30th 2013 1.4

MXNͲ2.4129 PHPͲ0.7254

-2.0

0

KRWͲ0.0267

-2.2

0

CNYͲ4.8315

-2.5

0

SGDͲ24.0009

-4.3

MYRͲ9.8281

-4.4

USDͲ29.4578

-4.6

0

0

0

0

TWDͲ0.9997

-5.4

AUDͲ30.6345

-5.5

EURͲ38.6646

-5.7

VNDͲ0.0014

-6.7

INRͲ0.5822

-7.2 -9.2

GBPͲ45.7317

-11.8

IDRͲ3.1805 JPYͲ30.2487

-21.8

Bahtappreciates

Bahtdepreciates 78

www.ChartingThailandEconomy.com


130430 Eng emag