The United States has taken an inward turn along with its new administration. The planned leadership of the EU and USA in managing globalisation with the help of the TTIP agreement has been replaced by uncertainty. On the other hand, there will be another change of power some day, and the US public opinion is that one half of the most important allies of the USA come from the EU. The co-operation between the EU and USA will continue, and we should be prepared to resume TTIP negotiations once the power changes again in the USA. China has already openly declared its willingness to assume a leading position in the world. It is possible for the EU to co-operate with the Asian giant, for example, in climate and trade issues, but the views concerning democracy and fundamental rights are far apart. Of the EU states, Finland is the second most dependent on China in terms of added value in exports. The planned free trade agreement between China and the EU is worth considering, but no negotiations can be initiated unless they lead, among other things, to the abolition of distortions of competition and the ratification of the ILO Core Conventions. The EU’s external borders are challenged by the situation in Turkey, the Middle East and Africa. There is a particular link between Finland and Turkey: during Finland’s EU presidency in 1999, Turkey was approved as an EU candidate state at the EU Council’s meeting in Helsinki. It appears that, during Finland's future EU presidency in 2019, Turkey will be as far away from the EU membership as it was in 1999. No stability in the Middle East is in sight in the near future. In Africa, the population is anticipated to grow by more than 100,000 persons per day. Many of them will view Europe as the beacon of opportunities and a land of dreams. The refugee wave due to the Syrian war might have been just an overture for the future. The African issue was brought up during the presidential election in Finland. The fundamental question is whether the EU will grow from being an incoherent group of states into a strong player with world-class influence. It has already succeeded in doing so, for example, in the context of climate and trade policies and in development co-operation. The EU is under great pressure to become a global actor with broad and strong influence. To hinder this development by prioritising short-term national interests would inevitably mean that all EU member states lose their position as world-class players.
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The fundamental question is whether the EU will grow from being an incoherent group of states into a strong player with world-class influence.