The Rise of Green Travel 2023-2028

Fast forward five years to 2028: what might a journey, e.g., from New Zealand to Los Angeles for the 2028 Summer Olympics, look like? In particular, where will aviation be on the road to net zero, and what differences will passengers notice?

On long-haul flights, things won’t be much different than they are today. The supply of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) will have increased with a number of new facilities coming on stream between now and 2028. Additionally, with more emphasis being put on the sustainable cabin, passengers can expect to see a greener passenger experience, including amenity kits made from sustainable materials and the phasing out of single-use plastics.

However, a more noticeable difference will be in shorter regional aviation.

eVTOLs (electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft) manufactured by the likes of Archer and Joby will already have entered commercial service in 2025, even though their use initially will be limited. Notwithstanding variations in technology, these aircraft can be expected to carry anywhere from two to six passengers up to a range of 100-200 miles on a single charge. They will be followed by other ‘air taxi’ companies such as Eve, Vertical Aerospace and Supernal.

With most of these eVTOL companies concentrating operations in the LA area, it is not far-fetched to imagine that billions of TV viewers worldwide will see them flying over the skies of Southern California during the 2028 Summer Olympics.

Similarly, smaller regional routes will start to be run with electric, hybrid-electric or hydrogen-electric aircraft. For example, 2028 is the year in which the Heart Aerospace ES-30 regional aircraft is due to fly commercially for airlines such as United Airlines and Air Canada.

By that year, ZeroAvia should have also reached certification for the ZA600 and ZA2000 hydrogen-electric powertrains, the latter of which can be used on < 80-seat regional aircraft.

This short-haul aviation revolution will offer communities economic and environmental benefits, as low- or zero-carbon aircraft are significantly cheaper to operate than existing regional aircraft. In the US, instead of 30+ large airports accounting for the vast majority of flights as is the case now, 5000+ underutilised public airports could come back to life.

FLYING FROM HAMILTON, NEW ZEALAND TO LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA IN JULY 2028

THE BOOKING PROCESS

First of all, consumer perceptions around aviation and climate change will inevitably have an impact on the booking process.

Opinion polls have consistently shown high levels of concern about climate change, especially in Europe, North America, and the Asia-Pacific region. In 2022 they also showed growing awareness about aviation’s contribution to global warming.

It’s a reasonable assumption that this trend will only accelerate, especially given the high likelihood of further extreme weather events between now and 2028.

As a result, by 2028 we may start to see those perceptions about climate change and air travel start to translate into action, where travellers actively choose the least carbon intensive way of flying.

United Airlines, when launching its new $100 million Sustainable Aviation Fuel fund in February 2023, announced that it would be guiding passengers to the least polluting options in the United app booking path. By 2028, we expect that to be a common feature of almost all airline apps.

Furthermore, we may see booking sites use “green coding” to ensure that the code requires the fewest processor instructions and takes up as little memory space as possible to reduce energy consumption.

The couple in question subscribes to the idea put forward by the ICCT's Dan Rutherford, of ‘Fly Like a Nerd’ - New (Newer Aircraft), Economy, Regular (medium-sized aircraft, not giant planes like A380s) and Direct.

And here, there are direct routes available for them. Air New Zealand started flying direct between Auckland and Los Angeles in 2022 with a Boeing 777 and Delta in 2023 with an A350-900. Airbus claims that the latter aircraft offers 25% less fuel burn and CO2 emissions per seat. So we will assume that our couple takes one of these two direct routes available.

THE CONNECTING FLIGHT

First of all, the couple needs to get to New Zealand’s main international airport in Auckland. In 2022 and 2023, Air New Zealand brought a number of next-generation aircraft companies on board with its “Mission Next Generation Aircraft” programme, which include Eviation, BETA, Heart Aerospace, Embraer, ATR and Universal Hydrogen.

Let’s assume that the couple takes an Eviation Alice, the nine-seater commuter aircraft due to come into service in 2027. They turn up in Hamilton, where Alice services to Auckland are running with Air New Zealand every half hour.

The very distinctive looking all-electric Alice aircraft offers the couple SkyView panoramic windows with individually controlled electrochromatic shades and seats with a 32-inch pitch. When the Points Guy took a look at a prototype of the cabin in 2021, he complimented the sidemounted wireless smartphone chargers, the touch-enabled reading lights and the 1-1 configuration. The couple's first short flight will be comfortable, low-noise and zero-emissions – a perfect start to the long journey ahead.

Source: Eviation

Source: Eviation

AT THE AIRPORT

The couple arrives at Auckland International Airport (AKL). By 2028, AKL will be well on the way to achieving its 2030 Net Zero goal. Some of the steps the airport has been taking to achieve its goal have been using electricity generated from a mix of on- and off-site renewable generation (target date 2024), phasing out the use of natural gas in the terminal through the replacement of natural gas boilers with electric alternatives and electrifying the vehicle fleet.

AKL also has a goal to reduce Scope 3 emissions. This includes providing an

electric aircraft charging infrastructure, and supplying ground power units (GPUs) and pre-conditioned air (PCA) at all international gates so aircraft can connect to New Zealand’s low carbon electricity supply instead of burning jet fuel while at the gate.

If flying in a premium cabin, the couple may decide to visit a lounge. Lounges themselves are increasingly having an eye on sustainability. For example, the new Skyteam lounge in Sydney, Australia, has been built with an eye on sustainability including eliminating single-use plastics and water conservation features.

Source: Auckland Airport

THE EXPERIENCE ON BOARD

In 2028, our couple flying to LA is unlikely to find single-use plastics on board the flight. Air New Zealand, for example, ran trials about their removal as early as 2021 Meanwhile, Delta, the other airline flying direct between LAX and AKL, started the plastic removals process even earlier, in 2018.

In addition to single-use plastics not being part of the flight experience, the couple is likely to benefit from in-flight items made with sustainability in mind. For instance, in 2022, Delta debuted Mexican artisanmade amenity kits from “Someone, Somewhere.” By eliminating five single-use plastic items such as zippers

and packaging, these amenity kits help reduce Delta’s annual plastic use by up to 90,000 pounds. Plus, the traditional loom techniques and artisanal production processes also eliminate waste.

On the overnight Delta flight from Auckland to Los Angeles, the couple will also be using blankets made from more than 100 recycled bottles. Meanwhile, the seat itself might be made from eLeather, a fusion of many small scrap pieces of real leather glued together to form one large homogenous material, making it much lighter yet stronger while reusing old materials.

Source: Air New Zealand

Source: Delta Airlines

THE FINAL LEG FROM LAX TO LONG BEACH

Arriving at LAX, the aircraft is serviced using electric ground vehicles. Then, when getting off the aircraft, the couple doesn’t find any single-use plastic bottles on sale in the airport stores after LAX banned their sale in 2023. Many airlines by 2028 may in fact give non plastic reusable bottles to passengers to keep, especially in premium cabins.

The couple clears immigration and customs. In late 2022, US customs agents were trialling a facial recognition system at Orlando International Airport. It’s likely that by 2028, this technology will have found its way to LAX.

The couple then goes to the Vertiport to catch their eVTOL to Long Beach. At the Vertiport, they have two options – a flight with Archer’s Midnight aircraft or Joby’s eVTOL. Both are all electric, with the electricity from the Vertiport being 100% renewable.

By 2028, we expect to see these final leg eVTOL services offered as part of an airline ticket. Through its links with United, Archer is likely to be integrated with Star Alliance Airlines like Air New Zealand; meanwhile, Joby has Delta on board as an investor and partner. Each eVTOL will be able to take our couple, plus two other passengers and all of their luggage.

The couple finally arrives in Long Beach, the Olympic venue for seven sports, including handball, sailing, rowing and the triathlon. Here they take advantage of LA’s new transit infrastructure, which includes electric buses and a new light rail line.

Meanwhile they stay in a hotel that has pledged to become carbon neutral by 2030, increasingly receives power from solar panels on the roof, has phased out single use plastics, and sources locally grown and produced food where possible to cut down on food miles.

THE PATH AHEAD AIRCRAFT FOR SUSTAINABLE

Over the next five years, we can expect to see significant milestones in aviation’s journey to net-zero being met. Here are some of the key events we can look forward to:

The first-ever transatlantic flight using 100% Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) takes place from London to New York with Virgin Atlantic.

Volocopter’s "Connect" eVTOL stages demonstration flights at the Paris Olympics.

Ampaire’s “Eco Caravan”, a converted hybrid-electric Cessna Grand Caravan, enters service.

ZeroAvia’s ZA600 hydrogenelectric powertrain is certified for use in small (<19-seat) regional aircraft.

Archer Aviation starts its first airport-to-downtown urban air mobility (UAM) network with United Airlines in New York.

eVTOLs from Joby and Vertical Aerospace enter commercial service.

ATR’s regional turboprops certified to run on 100% Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF).

Universal Hydrogen and Connect Airlines introduce hydrogen-powered regional aircraft to North America.

SAF production ramps up. Large-scale SAF facilities that come on stream include the NEXT Biorefinery in Oregon (United Airlines is an investor), the Velocys Bayou Fuels (has contracts with IAG and Southwest Airlines) and the DG Fuels plant in Louisiana (Air France - KLM is a major customer).

Electra’s eSTOL aircraft certified for commercial flight.

Air New Zealand’s “Mission Next Generation Aircraft” starts commercial demonstrator flights.

Australian regional airline Rex debuts first retrofitted Saab 340 aircraft using hydrogen-electric powertrains.

Embraer's Eve launches its 4-seat electric flying taxi.

Dubai’s vertiports open, acting as the centre of an eVTOL network covering the UAE.

ZeroAvia’s ZA2000 hydrogen-electric powertrain is certified for use in 40-80 seat regional aircraft.

The all-electric ‘Alice’ aircraft from Eviation enters service.

ICAO’s ‘CORSIA’ scheme becomes mandatory.

Heart’s ES-30 hybridelectric regional aircraft in service for airline customers, including Air Canada, United Airlines and SAS.

Hyundai-owned Supernal debuts its eVTOLs.

The Los Angeles 2028 Olympics sees eVTOLs used on a large scale in front of a global audience.

Battery technology takes a leap forward as NASA and Nissan unveil solid-state batteries.

First test flights of the NASA - Boeing Sustainable Flight Demonstrator project.

THE RISE OF eVTOLs

One of the many things that springs to mind when people think of Los Angeles is freeways crammed with traffic. By 2028 that will change. According to Los Angeles Metropolitan Transportation Authority Olympics Task Force Director Kasey Shuda, changing LA’s car culture is “the only way we will survive the 2028 Olympic and Paralympic Games.”

As well as major investments in light rail and LA’s Metro system, one of the ways that traffic will be taken off the roads is via eVTOLs, or electric take-off and landing vehicles.

The eVTOL market is expected to be worth $1.75 billion by 2028, with a number of eVTOL companies focused on the greater LA region, including Archer, Joby, Wisk and the German company Volocopter.

There are a number of reasons for LA becoming a “battleground for eVTOLs”; not only is it a large urban region, but Los

Angeles also has an existing infrastructure of helicopter landing points. It also has a lot of parking lots and space on top of tall buildings that could be used for these so-called Vertiports that would allow such aircraft to land and take off. Volocopter, in fact, intends to fly its two-seater Volocity eVTOL as early as the 2024 Paris Olympics, but this will almost certainly be used only for demonstration and select media flights.

By 2028, the Volocopter VoloRegion, which can take four passengers and one pilot, should be in the air. The VoloRegion will then join other four-seat eVTOLs, such as Archer’s Midnight aircraft and the first eVTOLs from Joby and from (Hyundaiowned) Supernal over the LA skies.

Archer, in particular, is already scoping out a Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) to Hollywood route on behalf of investor and partner United Airlines. Meanwhile, Joby has Delta on board as an investor and so is likely to offer transfers to and from Delta’s LAX hub.

As a result, LA2028 is set to become the eVTOL games.

With the event having a global TV audience of billions, people around the world will see these new aircraft transporting passengers – including journalists who will tell viewers

Source: Archer Aerospace

Source: Volocopter and readers about the experience, often even live-streaming it – making the concept seem much more familiar, yet also aspirational and exciting. It could become the trigger to make eVTOL use more desirable on a wider scale.

The picture painted by Archer Founder and CEO Adam Goldstein in his Sustainability in the Air podcast interview is of a future where aircraft like Archer’s Midnight eVTOL operate like “air gondolas” where a steady stream of air taxis transport passengers between airports and cities and within urban areas – you just turn up and get on the next one.

This democratisation of eVTOLs will also be driven by pricing. The expectation is that, eventually, prices will be as competitive as ride-sharing services, especially as advances in battery technology further reduce costs.

THE RISE OF REGIONAL AVIATION

By 2028, we will see the start of a regional aviation renaissance as short-range electric and hydrogen aircraft begin to enter service. Cheap, low-noise and low-pollution point-to-point regional and commuter flights will disrupt the current hub and spoke model, with many smaller airports coming back to life or even seeing commercial air travel for the first time.

During the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, flying medium- or long-haul will look much as it does right now as the world’s major airlines will still be receiving deliveries of the kind of aircraft that are in service at the moment, such as the Airbus A321, A350 or Boeing 787 Dreamliner. For example, United Airlines’ recent giant aircraft order from Boeing will see those aircraft being delivered until 2032.

Where we can expect to see big changes, however, is in the regional air mobility market. In addition to the eVTOLs we talked about in the previous section, by 2028, next-generation low- or zero-carbon regional aircraft will be flying in our skies.

For example, 2028 is the year that Heart Aerospace’s ES-30 is due to come into service. At the time of writing, investors, partners and customers include United

Airlines, Air Canada, Air New Zealand and SAS – to name just a few. By 2028, ZeroAvia should also have successfully completed certification for both its ZA600 and ZA2000 hydrogen-electric powertrains, meaning that they will be used in regional aircraft of up to 80 seats. Meanwhile, very small (9-19 seat) electric and hybrid-electric aircraft due to be flying on commuter routes by 2028 include the Eviation Alice and Electra’s eSTOL (electric short take-off and landing) aircraft.

CHEAPER, CLEANER, QUIETER

In addition to offering environmental benefits, this next generation of regional and commuter aircraft could potentially be transformative for the communities they serve, and result in a regional air mobility revolution. Their introduction will reverse the trend of many smaller regional airports losing commercial air services due to regional turboprop fleets being relatively expensive to operate.

By comparison, electric, hybrid-electric and hydrogen-electric aircraft offer significant savings. ZeroAvia, for instance, estimates that its hydrogen-electric powertrains offer 60% lower powertrain operating costs compared to turbines, making it not only much more economical to fly point to point but also relieving pressure on crowded hubs.

As well as pollution and operating costs, these aircraft will be much quieter, removing another common friction point

with communities situated near airports. To give one example, electric aircraft engine maker magniX has carried out tests on an ‘eBeaver’, a modified DHC-2 Beaver Seaplane. It found that the sound emitted decreased at least 100x on average, compared to the standard Beaver during all phases of flight.

In its Regional Air Mobility Report, NASA summarised what all this will mean, concluding that “the local airport you may not even know existed will soon be a catalyst for change in how you travel.” Instead of being expensive, noisy and polluting, flying short distances could end up being the greenest form of travel by the end of the decade, turning the received wisdom about short-haul aviation and the environment on its head.

Source: Heart Aerospace

OVERCOMING BATTERY LIMITATIONS BY 2028

Battery issues have previously held back the developments of electric aircraft. So let’s look at the advances in battery technology by 2028 that will make Regional Air Mobility (RAM) possible.

In a July 2022 paper on electric aviation, the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) concluded that (as things stood at the time of writing) an electric aircraft could probably carry nine passengers for a distance of 140km.

The ICCT did, however, account for an improvement in the technology, saying that nearly doubling the battery-specific energy would allow a 90-seat aircraft to fly for 280 km. This goal looks to be in sight. For example, Cuberg is developing a lithium metal battery with electric aviation in mind that offers energy densities some 70% higher than conventional NMC lithium-ion batteries of today.

Meanwhile, NASA is working on a solid-state battery project called SABERS. Instead of being lithium based, this battery is made primarily from sulphur and selenium. In October 2022, NASA said that the initial results had exceeded expectations. According to Rocco Viggiano, principal investigator for SABERS, “not only does this design eliminate 30 to 40 per cent of the battery’s weight, but it also allows us to double or even triple the energy it can store, far exceeding the capabilities of lithium-ion batteries that are considered to be state of the art.”

Cuberg expects to start production in 2026. Meanwhile, auto giant Nissan has partnered with NASA on the solid-state battery development, expecting them to be ready in 2028. As a result, by 2028, one of the biggest technology hurdles to net-zero short regional and commuter aviation will have – to a large part – been overcome.

Source: Electra

Source: Cuberg

THE RISE OF GREEN AIRPORTS

Right now, Edmonton Airport (YEG) in Canada is building a 627-acre, 120-megawatt solar farm on the west side of YEG’s lands. When completed, Airport City Solar is slated to be the largest airport solar farm in the world and could theoretically generate enough electricity to power every flight departing from YEG (assuming the technology was available to power larger aircraft). There would then be enough power leftover to run the entire fleet of ground service vehicles and provide airport heating throughout the Canadian winter.

Airport Solar City may be the biggest, but it is only one of a number of airport solar projects worldwide.

For example, the Dubai International Airport is leveraging the United Arab Emirates' natural resource, sunlight. The airport is presently entering its fourth year since installing a solar farm of 15,000 photovoltaic panels on top of the building at Terminal 2 – the biggest of its kind in the Middle East – which reduces the airport’s total energy costs by 29%.

Meanwhile the new Terminal One at JFK will be powered by its own microgrid and the largest solar array in New York City. By 2026 the terminal will be partially open, with a full opening scheduled for 2030.

In 2028, such airport renewable projects will both help charge electric aircraft and power the airport themselves. And not only larger airports will have these kinds of capabilities. More companies are stepping in to build microgrids for much smaller airports.

For example, BETA, which we featured in our 2022 Urban Air Mobility report, offers what might be described as an electric airport in a box-type setup, which consists of a series of shipping containers added together that has everything from an eVTOL landing pad, a control centre and lounge, a battery energy storage unit, and even sleeping quarters for the crew.

BETA also offers the ‘charge cube’ for charging aircraft and plans to have 150 publicly accessible electric chargers online by 2025.

Meanwhile, Clear Skies in the USA works with general aviation and regional airports to place solar panels on the aircraft hangars or within the airport estate – which is a smaller version of what’s happening in Edmonton. Clear Skies says that the end goal is to have an airport run 99% of the power produced via its own microgrid. Clear Skies then installs chargers which can be used for passenger electric cars, ground service equipment and vehicles and, of course, electric aircraft. By 2028 expect to see a lot of airports take advantage of this kind of infrastructure

THE GREEN AIRPORT INFRASTRUCTURE

In addition to microgrids, sustainable construction and infrastructure will feature more prominently in airport buildings and designs. For example, The new King Salman International Airport in Riyadh, which is scheduled to open in 2030, will not only be powered 100% by renewable energy, but it will also aim for LEED Platinum certification. Meanwhile, the new Terminal Two at Kempegowda International Airport in Bengaluru (India) aims to embody India’s ‘sustainable technology vision’ using 100% renewable energy sources. The majority of the building has also been made from engineered bamboo, which is considered to emit no carbon. In terms of water management, rainwater harvesting will result in 1.6 million litres of water being supplied to the Terminal every day. Beyond the Terminal itself, the airport has switched to more energy efficient LED lighting on the airfield.

We are also seeing airports experiment with sustainable concrete. For example, Indianapolis International Airport (IND) in 2022 worked with Canadian company Carbon Cure to lay a runway where the concrete has recycled CO2 injected into it. Once injected, the CO2 undergoes

mineralization and is subsequently stored permanently.

According to the airport, the amount of CO2 sequestered is equivalent to planting 1.2 million trees.

The other element we are seeing incorporated into airport design, which we expect to become much more commonplace by 2028, is a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions through the way airports taxi and land.

For instance, Salt Lake City International Airport (SLC) has a new pier layout concourse design, which SLC says allows for newer, larger and more efficient aircraft and also eliminates aircraft bottlenecks and congestion.

In addition to greenhouse gas reduction thanks to more efficient taxiing procedures, there’s also a tangible benefit to passengers in fewer delays – an excellent example of how a sustainability initiative can also improve the passenger experience. In 2023 this kind of sustainable airport infrastructure is still in the experimental phase. By 2028 it will be commonplace.

Source: BETA

THE RISE OF SUSTAINABLE CABIN

In October 2022, APEX (the Airline Passenger Experience Association) announced that in 2023 it would be launching a ‘green rating’ for airline suppliers to cover everything from passenger blankets to catering supplies. By 2028, the APEX green rating programme will be in its sixth year and will have become an established leader in guiding airlines to actively choose suppliers who demonstrate sustainability.

Even though in-flight sustainability is a small part of the aviation sustainability puzzle, it is an increasingly important one from the passenger experience point of view because it is what the passenger sees and experiences. If a flight is powered by SAF, the experience is the same as if

Source: Red Sea Farms

it’s powered by fossil fuels; however, if recycled or non-plastic products are used on board, the passenger notices.

Locally grown produce from the airline’s home country using food grown by high environmental standards will also be more common in airline meals. Examples are food from Emirates’ Vertical Farms in Dubai and SAUDIA’s in-flight menus using food grown by Red Sea Farms, which enables commercial farming using lower energy and zero freshwater sustainable climate control.

In 2028, passengers could also find their amenity kits being made out of material that is already being used on an experimental basis, such as ‘banana-tex’ –textile fabrics made from banana plants.

Source: Banatex

Listen to more insights on our podcast

Within this report we’ve been talking about a number of sustainable aviation milestones that we can expect to see between now and 2028.

Many of the mentioned innovators in this report have been featured in the Sustainability in the Air podcast, the world’s first podcast dedicated to sustainable aviation. It is hosted by Shashank Nigam, CEO of SimpliFlying, bestselling author of SOAR, worked with over 100+ airlines and airports since 2008 on building brand trust.

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Listen and subscribe to the podcast here:

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Guests on previous seasons of the podcast have included Heart Aerospace CEO Anders Forslund, ZeroAvia CEO Val Miftakhov and Archer Aviation CEO Adam Goldstein.

Over the past fifteen years, SimpliFlying has worked with over 100 airlines and airports worldwide to build trust in travel.

We now focus on helping the industry navigate the biggest challenge it has faced so far – the need to decarbonise and reach net zero by 2050.

Here are just some of the ways we can help you in this journey: