SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT : MODELING FUTURE GROWTH SCENARIOS Aiko Nakano (MIT), Julia Sokol (MIT)

new development

6.2%

total annual savings accounting for climate change

138

buildings

[15]

1,027,525 sqm of floor area

MIT Campus [Cambridge, MA]

[2890]

case study

campus buildings color coded by EUI [kWh/sqm]

FRAMEWORK TO FORECAST URBAN ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS WITH THE GOAL OF NET-ZERO CARBON DEVELOPMENT

NET-ZERO GROWTH

“

Proposed MIT Kendall Development Scenario in 2050

CLIMATE CHANGE

Average Monthly Temperature

Heating 300

Cooling

200 2014

2020

2030

2040

Temperature [C]

scenario prediction using Climate Change World Weather File Generator [1] developed by the University of Southampton, creating

Energy Consumption [GWh]

The goal of net-zero growth is to combat the negative effects of carbon emissions due to global warming. Because Boston is a heating dominated city, the energy consumption for heating will decrease while that for cooling will increase. The goal is to mitigate the rise in cooling demand.

Effects of Climate Change on Average Temperature Effects of Climate Change on MIT Heating & Cooling Loads

Average Annual Temperature

30

13.6 12.4 11.4

20

10

2050 1

2

3

4

5 6 7 2014 2020

8 9 2050

SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT Modeling Future Growth Scenarios | Aiko Nakano + Julia Sokol | Clean Energy Education + Empowerment, Women in Clean Energy Symposium Poster Competition | September 16-17, 2014

10

11

12 2014 2020 2050

METHODOLOGY

PILOT STUDY APPLICATION

1

DATA COLLECTION

Dorms

Leased

Measured energy data Measured hourly weather data

Construction Assembly

Building Occupancy Schedule

2

FACADE

thickness [m]

1

SIMULATION INPUTS

Sand Gravel Stone Agg Concrete

0.2

0.5

Expanded Polystyrene Extruded

0.049

Sat

Sun

Gypsum Plaster Board

0.016

GROUND FLOOR

thickness [m]

Sat

Sun

Sand Gravel Stone Agg Concrete

0.15

0

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

B1. Weekly Classroom Equipment

1

0.5

0

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

B2. Weekly Classroom Occupancy

Measured vs Simulated EUI MIT Building Groups

Measured vs Simulated EUI Academic Buildings

3

program templates applied

Measured EUI

CALIBRATION

[2]

when needed

i)²

]

1.2

0.8

0.8

0.4

0.4

Dorms

0.0 0.0 0.4 Simulated EUI

yi = measured data y i=

0.8

1.2

0.0

0.4 Simulated EUI

0.0 1.2

0.8

Academic Building: Monthly Measured vs Simulated EUI Monthly Energy Consumption [GWh]

CVRMSE= 100 * [ (yi NMBE= 100 * [ (yi i

1.2

Measured EUI

Mon

50

Meas. Simu.

40

Cooling Heating

30 20 10

Electricity

0 1

4

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2020

SCENARIOS SIMULATION

Total Annual Savings after 4 Phases

2030

-3.5%

Total Annual Savings Accounting for Climate Change

-6.2%

2040 Clean energy installation 2050

5

developed as a way to allow

RESULTS VIEWER simulation results. Results

The current approach focuses on targeting net-zero carbon by renewable energy installations, which is generally more costly and resource-intensive. This framework is planned to be expanded to incorporate more detailed district-scale energy analysis, including various distributed generation sources. Additionally, a process to automate the calibration of the energy model to measured data is being explored.

MIT + Kendall Energy Mix Over Time Grid

Annual Energy Consumption (GWh)

FUTURE WORK

MIT Cogen Plant

PV

Geothermal

1,000 800 600

We would like to thank our teammates Manos Saratsis and Denise Rivas as well as instructors Christoph Reinhart, Carlos Cerezo, Timur Dogan, and Tarek Rakha in the course Modeling Urban Energy Flows. We would also like to thank Peter Cooper and the MIT Department of Facilities for providing us with campus-related data and the Center for Complex Engineering Systems [CCES] for supporting this project.

REFERENCES

400 200

2014

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

2020

2030

2040

2050

[1] Belcher SE, Hacker JN, Powell DS. Constructing design weather data for future climates. Building Services Engineering Research and Technology 2005; 26 (1): 49-61. [2] ASHRAE Guideline 14-2002, Measurement of Energy and Demand Savings. ASHRAE, Inc: Atlanta, 2002.

SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT Modeling Future Growth Scenarios | Aiko Nakano + Julia Sokol | Clean Energy Education + Empowerment, Women in Clean Energy Symposium Poster Competition | September 16-17, 2014