SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT : MODELING FUTURE GROWTH SCENARIOS Aiko Nakano (MIT), Julia Sokol (MIT)
new development
6.2%
total annual savings accounting for climate change
138
buildings
[15]
1,027,525 sqm of floor area
MIT Campus [Cambridge, MA]
[2890]
case study
campus buildings color coded by EUI [kWh/sqm]
FRAMEWORK TO FORECAST URBAN ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS WITH THE GOAL OF NET-ZERO CARBON DEVELOPMENT
NET-ZERO GROWTH
“
Proposed MIT Kendall Development Scenario in 2050
CLIMATE CHANGE
Average Monthly Temperature
Heating 300
Cooling
200 2014
2020
2030
2040
Temperature [C]
scenario prediction using Climate Change World Weather File Generator [1] developed by the University of Southampton, creating
Energy Consumption [GWh]
The goal of net-zero growth is to combat the negative effects of carbon emissions due to global warming. Because Boston is a heating dominated city, the energy consumption for heating will decrease while that for cooling will increase. The goal is to mitigate the rise in cooling demand.
Effects of Climate Change on Average Temperature Effects of Climate Change on MIT Heating & Cooling Loads
Average Annual Temperature
30
13.6 12.4 11.4
20
10
2050 1
2
3
4
5 6 7 2014 2020
8 9 2050
SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT Modeling Future Growth Scenarios | Aiko Nakano + Julia Sokol | Clean Energy Education + Empowerment, Women in Clean Energy Symposium Poster Competition | September 16-17, 2014
10
11
12 2014 2020 2050
METHODOLOGY
PILOT STUDY APPLICATION
1
DATA COLLECTION
Dorms
Leased
Measured energy data Measured hourly weather data
Construction Assembly
Building Occupancy Schedule
2
FACADE
thickness [m]
1
SIMULATION INPUTS
Sand Gravel Stone Agg Concrete
0.2
0.5
Expanded Polystyrene Extruded
0.049
Sat
Sun
Gypsum Plaster Board
0.016
GROUND FLOOR
thickness [m]
Sat
Sun
Sand Gravel Stone Agg Concrete
0.15
0
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
B1. Weekly Classroom Equipment
1
0.5
0
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
B2. Weekly Classroom Occupancy
Measured vs Simulated EUI MIT Building Groups
Measured vs Simulated EUI Academic Buildings
3
program templates applied
Measured EUI
CALIBRATION
[2]
when needed
i)²
]
1.2
0.8
0.8
0.4
0.4
Dorms
0.0 0.0 0.4 Simulated EUI
yi = measured data y i=
0.8
1.2
0.0
0.4 Simulated EUI
0.0 1.2
0.8
Academic Building: Monthly Measured vs Simulated EUI Monthly Energy Consumption [GWh]
CVRMSE= 100 * [ (yi NMBE= 100 * [ (yi i
1.2
Measured EUI
Mon
50
Meas. Simu.
40
Cooling Heating
30 20 10
Electricity
0 1
4
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2020
SCENARIOS SIMULATION
Total Annual Savings after 4 Phases
2030
-3.5%
Total Annual Savings Accounting for Climate Change
-6.2%
2040 Clean energy installation 2050
5
developed as a way to allow
RESULTS VIEWER simulation results. Results
The current approach focuses on targeting net-zero carbon by renewable energy installations, which is generally more costly and resource-intensive. This framework is planned to be expanded to incorporate more detailed district-scale energy analysis, including various distributed generation sources. Additionally, a process to automate the calibration of the energy model to measured data is being explored.
MIT + Kendall Energy Mix Over Time Grid
Annual Energy Consumption (GWh)
FUTURE WORK
MIT Cogen Plant
PV
Geothermal
1,000 800 600
We would like to thank our teammates Manos Saratsis and Denise Rivas as well as instructors Christoph Reinhart, Carlos Cerezo, Timur Dogan, and Tarek Rakha in the course Modeling Urban Energy Flows. We would also like to thank Peter Cooper and the MIT Department of Facilities for providing us with campus-related data and the Center for Complex Engineering Systems [CCES] for supporting this project.
REFERENCES
400 200
2014
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
2020
2030
2040
2050
[1] Belcher SE, Hacker JN, Powell DS. Constructing design weather data for future climates. Building Services Engineering Research and Technology 2005; 26 (1): 49-61. [2] ASHRAE Guideline 14-2002, Measurement of Energy and Demand Savings. ASHRAE, Inc: Atlanta, 2002.
SUSTAINABLE URBAN DEVELOPMENT Modeling Future Growth Scenarios | Aiko Nakano + Julia Sokol | Clean Energy Education + Empowerment, Women in Clean Energy Symposium Poster Competition | September 16-17, 2014