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agri Bedryfskonferensie/Commodity and Corporate Conference

Case studies confirm positive involvement The majority of Agri SAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s members and affiliates are either actively involved in farmer development or acted as development consultants to farmers. The following case studies indicate the type of projects that are undertaken. For a comprehensive list of transformation activities see p 35.

Cotton SA Cotton SA currently provides training and PHQWRUVKLSWRIDUPHUV7KHVHIDUPHUV organised themselves into 18 co-operatives LQ1NRPD]LLQ0SXPDODQJD1NRPD]LLV a very hot area and the soil quality is not suitable for crop cultivation. It is, however, perfect for cotton cultivation. ,QWKHILQDQFLDO\HDUWKH department of rural development and land UHIRUP '5'/5 FRQWULEXWHG5PLOOLRQ DQG&RWWRQ6$5PLOOLRQWRWKLVSURMHFW ,QKDRIODQGZDVFXOWLYDWHG of which 1 460 ha was planted by hand. With the assistance of Cotton SAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s team, DQDYHUDJH\LHOGRINJSHUKDZDV produced which resulted in a gross income of R16.4 million or R5 936.80 per ha.

Hamlet Hlomendlini (Agri SA), Karabo Takadi (Absa) and Dr Requier Wait (Agri SA)

Pieter de Jager (Afrilogic), Henri Minnaar (Agrimentor) and Gerhard Schutte (RPO)

The Nkomazi area is about 11 000 ha in size, so there is ample opportunity for expansion and development. However, this is subject to the availability of funds for more agricultural implements, installing proper irrigation systems and further training. Cotton SA plans to build a processing plant in the area to bring the market closer, so to speak, and create even more employment opportunities.

National Wool Growers Association (NWGA) The NWGA organises and provides training and mentorship to small-scale sheep DQGZRROIDUPHUV'XULQJWKH financial year these farmers produced NJZRROZKLFKZHUHYDOXHGDW

Maximilian Berger (German Embassy) and Jack Vera (Netherlands Embassy)

Chris Krone (Dried Fruit Techical Services) and Warren Bam (SATGI)

5,QNJ ZLWKDYDOXHRI5ZHUH produced. The significant increase in production and income can largely be attributed to the training and mentorship provided by NWGA. The introduction of a ram-exchange programme improved the genetics of flocks and subsequently increased wool production. A socio-economic impact study FRQGXFWHGE\'DYH7DSVRQLQRI NWGAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s project found that within the relevant communities Â&#x2021; WKHQXPEHURIKRXVHKROGVZLWKFKLOGUHQ going to bed hungry has declined from LQWRLQDQG appears set to continue downwards; Â&#x2021; WKHQXPEHURIKRXVHKROGVZLWKVDYLQJV DFFRXQWVKDVLQFUHDVHGIURPLQ WRLQDQGVHHPVVHWWR continue upwards; and the number of households that could afford school fees KDYHLQFUHDVHGIURPLQWR LQ Although substantial amounts of money are already spent on this project, there is room for development. The NWGAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s current capacity only allows it to assist 330 wool producing communities involving close to 10 000 individual producers per year. However, there are currently about ZRROSURGXFLQJFRPPXQLWLHV PRUH than 40 000 individuals) country-wide. >>> page 39

Brett Naidoo (Lion Pride) and Marzaan Polidorou (NAHF)

Jaco Minnaar (Grain SA), Pietman Roos (Agri SA), and Derek Matthews (Grain SA) agri$35,/Â&#x2021;0(,0$<Âś bladsy/page

agri Nuus/News

Expropriation without compensation â&#x20AC;&#x201C; the first consultation: 1DWLRQDO/DQG'LDORJXH)RUXPDQG0DUFK ANNELIZE CROSBY, HEAD: LAND L AFFAIRS, S AGRI SA

3DUOLDPHQWUHVROYHGRQ)HEUXDU\WRVWDUWDSURFHVVZKHUHE\WKH&RQVWLWXWLRQDO5HYLHZ&RPPLWWHHZDV mandated to consider whether an amendment to the property clause in the Constitution was necessary and desirable to speed up land reform.


he first meeting of the Constitutional Review Committee took place on 0DUFK7KHFKDLUSHUVRQV of the Review Committee felt that it was necessary to prepare members of the committee for the task by ensuring that they have a full understanding of all legislation, proposed legislation, research and current views on expropriation of land without compensation. For this purpose, the committee joined IRUFHVZLWKWKH1HOVRQ0DQGHOD)RXQGDWLRQ the Gordonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Institute of Business Studies, and the In-Transformation Initiative to engage LQVWDNHKROGHUFRQVXOWDWLRQVRQDQG 0DUFK7KLVVRFDOOHG1DWLRQDO/DQG Dialogue with a cross-section of opinion makers in the arena of land reform was a first engagement in the public consultation process. The committee will also undertake SURYLQFLDOKHDULQJVGXULQJ0D\DQG-XQH which will culminate in parliamentary hearings in July. All interested parties will have the opportunity to also submit written submissions to the Review Committee.

The motion The EFF proposed the following motion: â&#x20AC;&#x153;The House:  QRWHVWKDW6RXWK$IULFDKDVDXQLTXH history of brutal dispossession of land from black people by the settler colonial white minority;  IXUWKHUQRWHVWKDWODQGGLVSRVVHVVLRQOHIW an indelible mark on the social, political and economic landscape of the country, and has helped design a society based on exploitation of black people and sustenance of white domination;  DFNQRZOHGJHVWKDWWKH$IULFDQPDMRULW\ ZDVRQO\FRQILQHGWRRIWKHODQGLQ 6RXWK$IULFDZKLOHZKLWHVRZQHGDW the end of the apartheid regime in 1994;  IXUWKHUDFNQRZOHGJHVWKDWWKHFXUUHQW land reform programme has been fraught with difficulties since its inception in 1994, and that the pace of land reform KDVEHHQVORZZLWKRQO\RIWKHODQG transferred back to black people since 1994;

 DFNQRZOHGJHVWKDWWKHUHFHQWODQGDXGLW claims that black people own less than RIUXUDOODQGDQGOHVVWKDQRI urban land;  UHFRJQLVHVWKDWDWWKHFHQWUHRIWKH present crisis regarding the resolution RIWKHODQGTXHVWLRQLVVHFWLRQRI the Constitution, the â&#x20AC;&#x153;property clauseâ&#x20AC;?, which protects private property rights, and requires the State to pay compensation when expropriating land in the public interest and for a public purpose;  IXUWKHUUHFRJQLVHVWKDWWKLVSURSHUW\FODXVH makes it practically impossible for those dispossessed of their land to get justice for injustices perpetrated against them;  QRWHVWKDWLQKLV6WDWHRIWKH1DWLRQ Address, President Cyril Ramaphosa made a commitment that Government would embark on a radical land reform programme that entails expropriation of land without compensation;  IXUWKHUQRWHVWKDWDQ\DPHQGPHQW to the Constitution to allow for land >>> page 43

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<<< page 41 expropriation without compensation must go through a parliamentary process as Parliament is the only institution that can amend the Constitution; and  HVWDEOLVKHVDQ ad hoc committee, in WHUPVRI5XOHWKHFRPPLWWHHWR D UHYLHZDQGDPHQGVHFWLRQRIWKH Constitution to make it possible for the state to expropriate land in the public interest without compensation, and in the process conduct public hearings to get the views of ordinary South Africans, policy-makers, civil society organisations and academics, about the necessity of, and mechanisms for expropriating land without compensation; E SURSRVHWKHQHFHVVDU\FRQVWLWXWLRQDO amendments with regard to the kind of future land tenure regime needed, taking into account the necessity of the State being a custodian of all South African land; F FRQVLVWVRIPHPEHUVDVIROORZV$1& '$())DQGRWKHUSDUWLHV G H[HUFLVHWKRVHSRZHUVLQ5XOHWKDW may assist it in carrying out its task; and H UHSRUWWRWKH$VVHPEO\E\QRODWHUWKDQ 0D\ The ANC proposed substantial amendments to the original EFF motion. The ANC amendments provide for a proper consultation process and built in the â&#x20AC;&#x153;caveatsâ&#x20AC;? regarding agricultural production and food security. The ANC amended wording also clearly states that the Constitution should be reviewed â&#x20AC;&#x153;where necessaryâ&#x20AC;?. There is no mention in the ANC motion of state custodianship of land. The ANC amendments to the motion entailed the following: â&#x20AC;&#x153;That paragraph 6 of the motion be amended as follows: 1. Recognises that the current policy instruments, including the willing buyer willing seller policy, and other provisions RIVHFWLRQRIWKH&RQVWLWXWLRQPD\EH hindering effective land reform.â&#x20AC;? 'HOHWHSDUDJUDSKRIWKHPRWLRQDV SULQWHGRQWKH2UGHU3DSHU 3. Substitute paragraph 8 of the motion with the following: â&#x20AC;&#x153;notes that in his State of the Nation Address, President Cyril Ramaphosa, in recognising the original sin of land dispossession, made a commitment that Government would continue the land reform programme that entails expropriation of land without compensation, making use of all mechanisms at the disposal of the State, implemented in a manner that increases agricultural production, improves food security and ensures that the land is returned to those from whom it was taken under colonialism and apartheid and

agri Nuus/News undertake a process of consultation to determine the modalities of the governing party resolution.â&#x20AC;? 4. Amend paragraph 10 as follows: â&#x20AC;&#x153;with the concurrence of the National Council of Provincesinstructs the Constitutional Review Committee to â&#x20AC;&#x201C; in sub-paragraph D EHIRUHWKHZRUGV´WRPDNHÂľWRLQVHUW ´UHYLHZVHFWLRQRIWKH&RQVWLWXWLRQDQG other clauses where necessaryâ&#x20AC;?;  LQVXESDUDJUDSK E DIWHUWKHZRUG â&#x20AC;&#x153;amendmentsâ&#x20AC;? to insert â&#x20AC;&#x153;where applicableâ&#x20AC;? and delete all the words after â&#x20AC;&#x153;neededâ&#x20AC;?;  GHOHWHVXESDUDJUDSKV F DQG G LQVXE SDUDJUDSK H WRWKHGDWHIRUUHSRUWLQJWR WKH$VVHPEO\WR´$XJXVWÂľ

The dialogue of 27 and 28 March 7KHZRUNVKRSWKDWWRRNSODFHRQDQG 0DUFKDWWKH*RUGRQ,QVWLWXWHRI%XVLQHVV Studies in Johannesburg was attended by amongst others the minister of mineral UHVRXUFHV*ZHGH0DQWDVKHWKHGHSXW\ minister of public works, Jeremy Cronin, the minister of rural development and land UHIRUP0DLWH1NRDQD0DVKDEDQHWKH director general of rural development and land reform, Leona Archery, other senior government officials, a number of prominent large-scale farmers and organisations such DV$JUL6$$JEL]%DVDWKH1HOVRQ0DQGHOD Foundation, the FW de Klerk Foundation, Lamosa, a number of judges, academics and WKHPHGLD0HPEHUVRIWKH&RQVWLWXWLRQDO Review Committee and more particularly the FRFKDLUSHUVRQV9LQFHQW6PLWKDQG0DWKROH 0RWVHJDDOVRDWWHQGHGWKHZRUNVKRSDQG facilitated an engagement on the last day where they requested that those in attendance express their views on the question as to ZKHWKHUVHFWLRQZDVDQLPSHGLPHQWWR land reform. 2YHUDOOWKHGHEDWHVDWWKHZRUNVKRSZHUH robust, informed, stimulating and productive. The view that the property clause is not an impediment to land reform and that the constitution need not be amended was widely held. 7KHDUJXPHQWWKDWVHFWLRQKDVQRW\HW been tested in court, was persuasive in this regard. It was in this context that the minister of rural development and land reform said that she was planning to bring a test case on the interpretation of â&#x20AC;&#x153;just and equitable compensationâ&#x20AC;? to the courts. Agri SA will use such an opportunity to also put our views on the interpretation of VHFWLRQWRWKHFRXUW,QIDFW$JUL6$KDV already put arguments on this important matter before the Supreme Court of Appeal LQWKHFDVHRI8\VY0VL]D,QWKLVPDWWHUWKH court held that arbitrary deductions from the compensation amount were not allowed.

Any deduction will have to be justified and quantified. Recurring themes of the workshop were the need to restore the dignity of people who were dispossessed, the need to speedily address the real impediments to land reform, the need for a land audit recognised by all, the optimal use of state land, public-private partnerships, issues of post-settlement support and the financing of land reform. An opinion was expressed that land reform policies and laws needed to be aligned with the Constitution and that those needed to be amended, not the other way around. There was huge support for this view. Afasa held the view that they supported expropriation without compensation, because members of district land reform committees were told that there was no money for land acquisition. They also said that they would give guidance on what were the specific cases for expropriation without compensation. Deputy minister Jeremy Cronin had the following to say: â&#x20AC;&#x153;The EFF position is that all land should be expropriated without compensation. That is not the ANC position. What is important is that the EFF wanted a quick ad hoc committee in Parliament to deal with this matter. The ANC made sure that the correct procedure was followed. The Review CRPPLWWHHZLOOFRQVLGHUZKHWKHUVHFWLRQ We need to investigate needs to be amended. W ZKDWKDSSHQHGLQWKH0DOD0DODFDVH 0DUNHWYDOXHLVRQO\RQHIDFWRUWREHWDNHQ into consideration. You start with market value and can then adjust the compensation either upwards or downwards. The consideration is just and equitable. The final arbitrators as to what is just and equitable are the courts. This section has not been tested in the courts. Section LVQRWDQREVWDFOHEXWDPDQGDWHIRU transformation. We can consider expropriating without W compensation, but we will need a law of general application to stipulate the circumstances under which this may be done. A possible draft wording for such an amendment to the Expropriation Bill can read as follows: â&#x20AC;?In cases of expropriation in the public interest, the state may withhold compensation where the property is: a) an abandoned building; b) unutilised land; c) property held unproductively and purely for speculation purposes; d) under-utilised property held by public entities; e) land actively farmed by labour tenants with an absentee title holder. â&#x20AC;? Ronald Lamola, a former ANC Youth League leader, said that the ANC wanted a rational >>> page 45 agri$35,/Â&#x2021;0(,0$<Âś bladsy/page


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Agri SAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Corporate Chamber in conversation about expropriation 0HPEHUVRI$JUL6$·V&RUSRUDWH&KDPEHUKDGEUHDNIDVWZLWKH[&RQVWLWXWLRQDOMXGJH$QWRQLH*LOGHQKX\VLQ 0DUFK-XGJH*LOGHQKX\VLVUHJDUGHGDQH[SHUWRQH[SURSULDWLRQ+HDQVZHUHG$JUL6$·VTXHVWLRQV Question 1: Is expropriation without compensation possible in terms of the Constitution? Answer: Yes, but only in specific circumstances. Question 2: Can the Constitution be amended and, if so, how? Answer: Yes, by a two thirds majority in WKH1DWLRQDO$VVHPEO\DQGVL[  RIQLQH  SURYLQFHVLQWKH&RXQFLORI3URYLQFHV $PDMRULW\LVQRWUHTXLUHG Question 3: What does the Constitution currently stipulate regarding expropriation? Subsections 25(2) and (3) deal with expropriation. $QVZHU7KHZRUGLQJRIVXEVHFWLRQ   namely that compensation must reflect an equitable balance between the public

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interest and the interests of those who are affected, is derived verbatim from the German constitution. Expropriation is a public liability and must be borne by the community as a whole and not only by the person whose property is taken. It would be unfair to encumber one owner more than another. Equitability in respect of a public liability is a principle adopted by French, German and American law. If we in South Africa were to deviate from this, we will be acting contrary to the position in many other countries. 0RVWFRXQWULHV·FRQVWLWXWLRQVUHTXLUH compensation, whether full compensation 'HQPDUN1RUZD\5XVVLD.HQ\DWKH Seychelles and Lesotho), fair compensation ZKHUHDEDODQFLQJWHVWDSSOLHV 86$ Poland, Japan, Egypt, Namibia, the Congo

DQG0R]DPELTXH HTXLWDEOHFRPSHQVDWLRQ )UDQFH5ZDQGD0DGDJDVFDUDQG Tanzania) or adequate compensation %RWVZDQD0DOWD8JDQGDDQG=DPELD ,I South Africa were to scrap the equitability principle, we will be out of pace with most African countries. Weighing up interests could sometimes result in no compensation being paid. An example of this is Greece where land held by a convent was expropriated without compensation and given to the people who worked it. In Scotland, land owned by the nobility and worked by crofters was expropriated without compensation and given to the crofters. Expropriation without compensation is possible in South Africa. For example, where a businessman bribes a chieftain in a trust area to give him land and then evicts >>> page 45

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No such thing as level playing fields for agriculture: Cape Town surrenders day zero predictions J JANSE R IE, HEAD OFF NATURAL RESOURCES, RAB S AGRI SA

Farming in South Africa is generally tough, but it has never been harder or riskier to be in the agricultural business than it is today. Amidst the ongoing drought in the W Western Cape, the ruling party in the province does away with its Day Zero predictions for the City of Cape Town, leaving the agricultural community seething.


armers in the south-western part of the country are currently experiencing one of the greatest droughts in history. The consequences which, by itself, will be nearly devastating in Western Cape as well as large parts of the W the Northern Cape and Eastern Cape. The impacts of the current drought will directly be felt throughout South Africa in the form of, amongst other things, food price inflation in respect of certain commodities, including fruit, vegetables, wheat and red meat. Indirectly, the effects of the loss of foreign revenue from exports and job-losses will be felt both regionally and throughout the country. Even if the W Western Cape is blessed with normal rainfall during the coming winter months, the effects of the current drought are anticipated to carry through well into the next couple of years. The primary agricultural sector will require enormous capital investment in replacing uprooted or destroyed orchards and vineyards, rebuilding herds of livestock and the rehabilitation of both cultivated and grazing fields. The recovery of the regional agricultural sector may take years, even under best forecast scenarios. 2Q)HEUXDU\WKH1DWLRQDO 'LVDVWHU0DQDJHPHQW&HQWUH 1'0&  declared the ongoing drought in the Western W Cape, Eastern Cape and Northern Cape Provinces a National Disaster. The provincial government in the W Western Cape as well as Agri SA had been calling for such a GHFODUDWLRQVLQFH7KHGHFODUDWLRQRI a National Disaster in terms of the National 'LVDVWHU0DQDJHPHQW$FWRI '0$ LV a very serious matter and falls just short of a declaration of a State of Emergency in terms RIVHFWLRQRIWKH&RQVWLWXWLRQ,WHQWDLOV that the minister of cooperative governance DQGWUDGLWLRQDODIIDLUV'U=ZHOL0NKL]HPD\ in consultation with other cabinet ministers LQFOXGLQJWKHPLQLVWHURIDJULFXOWXUH forestry and fisheries), make regulations and authorise the issuing of directions concerning, amongst other things. Â&#x2021; WKHUHOHDVHRIDQ\DYDLODEOHUHVRXUFHVRI the national government; Â&#x2021; VWHSVWRDOOHYLDWHFRQWDLQDQGPLQLPLVH agri$35,/Â&#x2021;0(,0$<Âś bladsy/page


the effects of the disaster; Â&#x2021; VWHSVWKDWPD\EHQHFHVVDU\WRSUHYHQWDQ escalation of the disaster; and Â&#x2021; WKHIDFLOLWDWLRQRIUHVSRQVHDQGSRVW disaster recovery and rehabilitation. 7KH1DWLRQDO$JULFXOWXUDO0DUNHWLQJ&RXQFLO 1$0& ZKLFKDGYLVHVWKHPLQLVWHURI agriculture, forestry and fisheries, has brought together a group of stakeholders, including Agri SA, to deal with the devastating effects that the drought has had on the agricultural sector and to come up with a smart drought disaster management plan. This process is currently underway and will deal with the current and future effects of the drought as they unfold. Western Cape The current drought in the W will only be regarded as having been broken should the provinceâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s water supply system UHFRYHUWRDERYHDWZKLFKWLPHWKH severe water restrictions currently in place PD\EHOLIWHG 7KLVSRVLWLRQPD\EHUHYLVLWHG LQ1RYHPEHU $OVRLQWHUPVRIWKH current national water restrictions for the %UHHGH*RXULW]HQ%HUJ2OLIDQWV&DWFKPHQW 0DQDJHPHQW$UHDVWKHUHJLRQDOKHDGRI the department of water and sanitation has

Janse Rabie

been directed not to release any water from the system dams where agricultural bulk water user associations, irrigation boards or individual water users have depleted their curtailed seasonal bulk volumes. The provinceâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s agricultural sector agreed to abide by these measures and to assist government as much as possible.

Different playing fields Against this backdrop, it appears curious that the leader of the governing Democratic $OOLDQFHSDUW\LQWKH:HVWHUQ&DSH0PXVL 0DLPDQHRQ0DUFKDQQRXQFHGWKDWWKH predicted Day Zero scenario for the City of Cape Town may be avoided during the current year. The Day Zero scenario was used as a planning and communications tool by the City of Cape Town as an indication as to when the cityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s water supply was expected to fail because of the ongoing drought plaguing the city. While it may have focussed some Capetoniansâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; attention on the severity of the prevailing drought, this Doomsday prediction had previously been questioned by various water-sector role-players, including the agricultural sector. >>> page 65

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Is somergraanboere gereed vir beter produksietoestande? JOHAN VAN DEN BERG, SSANTAM LANDBO L U

'LHVRPHUVHLVRHQKHWZHHUEHNOHPWRRQGDWGLHDNNXUDDWKHLGYDQUHsQYDOYRRUVSHOOLQJVYHHOWHZHQVH oorlaat om goeie besluite slegs op klimaatsvoorspellings te neem. Ander inligting moet ook in ag geneem word om besluitneming te verbeter. Die beskikbaarheid van grondwater haal byvoorbeeld â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n klomp risiko uit besluitneming indien dit saam met voorspellings gebruik word. Dit is ook belangrik om eerder na scenarioâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s te kyk van wat die potensiaal is vir â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n seisoen en byvoorbeeld â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n swak, gemiddelde en goeie scenario op te stel met reĂŤnvalvoorspellings en beskikbare grondwater tesame. So byvoorbeeld sal â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n scenario vir â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n El Ninovoorspelling asook swak grondwatertoestande baie swakker wees as die scenario met â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n El Nino-voorspelling en goeie grondwatertoestande voor planttyd.


erder speel graanpryse en insetkoste ook â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n rol want dit verlaag of verhoog die gelykbreekpunt en dus die risiko. Die ingesteldheid van die boer teenoor risiko speel ook â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n rol van hoe daar op â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n spesifieke scenario gereageer kan/moet word. â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n Boer met min reserwes/ bates kan nie dieselfde kans vat as â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n boer wat self â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n gedeelte van die risiko kan dra met bates/kontant nie.

Langtermynbeplanning Dit is uiters belangrik om â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n langtermynsiening in te neem ten opsigte van die winsgewendheid en volhoubaarheid van â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n spesifieke bedryfstak. Sentiment in boerdery is nie â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n besigheidsbeginsel nie! Daar is â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n paar vrae wat die produsent JUDDQYHHHQVRYRRUWV PRHWEHDQWZRRUG om â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n langtermynstrategie op te stel: Â&#x2021; :DWLVP\SURGXNVLHULVLNR"%\YRRUEHHOG in hoeveel jare kan ek ten minste x-ton mielies per hektaar stroop teen â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n sekere pryssiening? In die westelike produksiegebiede kan daar ten minste in 3 uit 10 jare swak tot baie swak opbrengste realiseer afhangende van die grondfisiese eienskappe soos waterhouvermoĂŤ of teenwoordigheid van vlak watertafels. In ongeveer 3 uit 10 jare kan rekordopbrengste gestroop word maar dan is prys weer â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n risiko. In ongeveer 4 uit 10 jare kan gemiddelde opbrengste gestroop word maar as dit volg op â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n rekordoesjaar is prys â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n risiko en indien dit nĂĄ â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n jaar of paar jare van swak opbrengste kom, kan die prys positief wees. Daar moet dus beplan word om in heelwat jare Ăłf swak opbrengste en/Ăłf swak pryse te kry. Â&#x2021; ,VGLHSURGXNVLHHHQKHLGHNRQRPLHV JURRWJHQRHJ"0HWNOHLQHUZLQVWHPRHW daar groter omset wees. Â&#x2021; 'LHRSHHQYROJLQJYDQGURsVHLVRHQH Die aard van reĂŤnval is dat daar dikwels periodes van meer as drie agtereenvolgende jare is met swak produksietoestande. Kan dit oorleef

word? Daarteenoor moet goeie produksieseisoene nie as die â&#x20AC;&#x153;normaalâ&#x20AC;? beskou word en net daarvolgens beplan word nie.

Langtermyn-klimaatsvooruitsigte Daar is verskillende tydskale vir beplanning. In die geskiedenis is daar baie voorbeelde van â&#x20AC;&#x153;klimaatsveranderingâ&#x20AC;? wat oor tydperke van dekades tot miljoene jare geskied het. Vir beplanningsdoeleindes is dit egter belangrik om oor â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n tydskaal van enkele jare tot dekades te beplan.

Westelike produksiegebiede Jaarlikse reĂŤnvaltotale neig om â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n mate van siklisiteit te hĂŞ, dit wil sĂŞ daar is opeenvolgende jare van natter en opeenvolgende jare van droĂŤr toestande. So byvoorbeeld was daar vir Noordwes droĂŤ seisoene of ondergemiddelde reĂŤnvaltoestande vanaf WRW MDDU YDQDI WRW MDDU DVRRNZHHUYDQDI WRW MDDU 1DWWHU SHULRGHVKHWJHORRSYDQDIWRW  MDDU WRW MDDU YDQDIWRW MDDU DVRRNYDQDIWRW MDDU 5HsQYDOYHUVSUHLGLQJRRUPDDQGH het egter soms produksietoestande positief of negatief beĂŻnvloed binne hierdie nat en droĂŤ periodes. NĂĄ ten minste vyf jare van ondergemiddelde reĂŤnval is die kanse nou goed dat daar in die volgende seisoene beter reĂŤnvaltoestande verwag kan word en dus in â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n natter siklus inbeweeg kan word. Dit word ondersteun deur die sogenaamde sonvleksiklus wat naby aan die draaipunt is van afnemende aktiwiteit om in stygende aktiwiteit in te beweeg. Die meeste groot droogtes het voorgekom in die 5 tot 6 jaar van afnemende aktiwiteit en beter reĂŤnval in die periode van stygende aktiwiteit ZDDULQRQVELQQHGLHYROJHQGHMDDUJDDQ inbeweeg). Versteurings deur El NiĂąo/La 1LxDGLH,QGLHVH2VHDDQPHWWURSLHVH siklone en ander faktore kan egter enkele jare in hierdie siklus beĂŻnvloed.

Oostelike produksiegebiede Die siklus lyk bietjie anders vir byvoorEHHOG0SXPDODQJD+LHULVHHUVWHQVÂśQ tendens dat reĂŤnval besig is om af te neem oor die langtermyn en lyk dit asof veral droĂŤr siklusse meer intens en langer word. So byvoorbeeld was daar â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n periode van ongeveer vyf jaar met ondergemiddelde UHsQYDOYDQDIWRWZHHU YDQDIWRW MDDU YDQDI WRW MDDU HQWRHÂśQ LQWHQVHHQODQJSHULRGHYDQMDDUYDQDI WRW9DQDIWRW KHWRQGHUJHPLGGHOGHUHsQYDOZHHU begin voorkom. Die dinamika in die oostelike produksiegebiede is egter bietjie anders as LQGLHZHVWHOLNHGHOH2QGHUJHPLGGHOGH reĂŤnval in die oostelike produksiegebiede kan dikwels meer positief as negatief wees aangesien te veel reĂŤn en te min hitteeenhede dikwels â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n groter beperkende faktor is as ondergemiddelde reĂŤnval. Daar moet onthou word dat die langtermyngemiddelde UHsQYDOYLU0SXPDODQJD3URYLQVLHLVRQJHYHHU PPSHUMDDUHQDVGDDURQJHYHHU minder reĂŤnval voorkom is dit nog steeds ongeveer 600 mm per jaar. Wat is die moontlike implikasies van â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n W scenario van beter reĂŤnvaltoestande in die weste en swakker reĂŤnvaltoestande in die ooste asook ander bydraende faktore? Â&#x2021; ,QWHUQDVLRQDDOKHWYHUEHWHUGH graanproduksietegnologie gesorg dat groot voorrade opgebou is. Dit plaas â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;n demper op internasionale graanpryse. Â&#x2021; ,Q6XLG$IULNDKHWWHJQRORJLHGLHVHOIGH tendens gevolg en kan met klein oppervlaktes groot volumes geproduseer word. Verbeterde reĂŤnvaltoestande in die weste en effens minder reĂŤn en meer hitte-eenhede in die ooste in die volgende seisoene kan surplusproduksie tot nuwe vlakke voer. Â&#x2021; 9LUGLHLQGLYLGXHOHSURGXVHQWKRXGLWÂśQ groot risiko in want nou moet hy baie kompeterend wees om meer te produseer om lae pryse se effek te neutraliseer. Daar moet gejaag word na rekordopbrengste >>> bladsy 85 agri$35,/Â&#x2021;0(,0$<Âś bladsy/page


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