Page 48

No 70

48

analyses

Serbian economy

Six percent firms plan to enlarge their business Currently every third firm does not pay off the salaries to their employees, and only six percent firms plan to enlarge their business. Taking into consideration this the businesses expect this year to be as hard as 2009 when the hit of the crisis was the strongest

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he eurozone slowly enters the recession, which will obviously influence Serbia, too. The forecasts of the businesses have been the worst for two years now and it proves the data of a survey published in the Macroeconomic Analysis and Trends (MAT). Therefore, the businesses expect a drop in sale in the following three months, a risk growth in business, high level of non-liquidity as well as the lack of imported raw materials. It is obvious that the economic trends in Serbia are not encouraging because there is a drop in the industrial production and a growth of prices of products and inputs. In 2012 the Serbian economy records falling down in the processing industry. The bad forecasts are expected in the inflow of the foreign investments, it has been said at the Belgrade Institute of Economics.

Business climate stagnation Not only has the business climate changed for a few last years, but it seems to stands still for a certain period of time. None of the European countries is less competitive than Serbia. In addition, Serbia will have negative balance of the inflows and outflows with foreign countries. The coordinator of the projects being carried out by the Institute of Economics Stojan Stamenković estimates that minus in the current balance will be

near 2.5 billion euro, which must be covered by foreign direct investments and the remittances. He adds that in 2011 the inflow of the FDI amounted to 1.6 billion euro, such similar investments is needed this year too. The foreign direct investments amounted to five percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), which is the minimum we have to sustain in the following few years. If it does not happen, the level of the foreign currency reserves will fall down and it will effect the value of the dinar currency and increase the inflation. There are two risks which might provoke disorder of the fiscal discipline in 2012, and they are that the deficit of the state budget could go beyond the projected figure and overrun the limit of the public debt of 45 percent of the GDP by the end of first half of this year. I think that the inflows in the budget are overestimated, particularly when it comes to the inflows from the value added tax, points out Stamenković. He also said that in the following three years Serbia could expect to have negative balance of the long-term outflow of capital because of higher paying back of the foreign loans. Stamenković also said that the relation of the principal and interest rate is near 35 percent, while according to the EU standards this limit amounts to 25 percent. He estimates that such high rate could be longer than two-three years and because of that it is possible to www.pks.rs

have deficit in the credit balance. Stamenković highlights that the reforms must not wait to be carried out. As a best example for it might serve the fact that currently there are over 150 agencies, while the biggest number of these agencies in one European country does not exceed 22. Stojan Stamenković estimates that the Regulation on limiting the margins for certain food products is retrograde and it could increase the reserves and shrink the offer of products in the retail stores. Therefore, it is bureaucratic and not market measure. The measures of this kind have never solved a problem.

Stable exportation, stable production The vice-president of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Serbia Vidosava Džagić emphasises that the stable production growth is impossible without a stable growth of exportation. She adds that the instability of the foreign rate is a challenge for the businesses. The businesses need stable foreign exchange rate so as to plan the production. More than a half of the firms emphasises the non-liquidity as their main problem, which also increases the prices of petrol and its derivates. The increase of the employment rate will not happen as long as we do not have a stable economic growth, says Vidosava Džagić.

Časopis KORAK februar 2012 - broj 70  

Elektronsko izdanje časopisa Korak, koji obrađuje najvažnije aktivnosti Privredne komore Srbije i bavi se temama bitnim za privredni ambijen...

Časopis KORAK februar 2012 - broj 70  

Elektronsko izdanje časopisa Korak, koji obrađuje najvažnije aktivnosti Privredne komore Srbije i bavi se temama bitnim za privredni ambijen...

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