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CANADIAN BANKER

WILL NEW MORTGAGE RULES ADDRESS

AFFORDABILITY CONCERNS?

NOVEMBER 2016 ISSUE

RFi GROUP INSIGHT Page 08

ECONOMY & REGULATION

PAYMENTS & TECHNOLOGY

SME & COMMERCIAL

12 Canada added 67,000 jobs in September

16 Apple Pay now available at Desjardins

18 SMEs struggling to get financing


HOSTED BY

SUPPORTED BY

Wednesday 16 November 2016 I St Andrew’s Club & Conference Centre, Toronto Today it is crucial to remain on the crest of the wave of payment transformation. How do you keep up with the evolution and revolution of payments? Now in its second year, this forum will discuss these and other topics including the key trends, changes in customer behaviours as well as sharing case studies and best practice. The forum will also provide an excellent platform to network with peers. Speakers include: Robin Stewart Managing Director – Payment Card Services, BMO

Hisham Salama Vice President – Emerging Payment & Innovation, TD Bank

Alex Sion Co-Founder, Moven

Alan Wunsche Co-founder, Blockchain Canada

Gerald Cossette Director, FINTRAC, Government of Canada

Visit www.canadianpaymentsforum.com to see the full agenda and register For more information, contact Angelo Papadimitrios on +1 416 644 5088 or apapadimitrios@rfigroup.com


CONTENTS NOVEMBER 2016

08 RFi GROUP INSIGHT Will new mortgage rules address affordability concerns?

14

SAVINGS & BORROWING The British Colombia government reduces max charge on payday loans

18 SME & COMMERCIAL SMEs struggling to get financing

12 ECONOMY & REGULATION Canada added 67,000 jobs in September

16 PAYMENTS & TECHNOLOGY Apple pay now available at Desjardins

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#RFiGroupDailyStats BASED ON RFi GROUP'S LINKEDIN PAGE (DAILY STATS FROM 1 OCT 2016 - 31 OCT 2016)

TOP 10 OCTOBER STATISTICS

35% The biggest driver of savings account switching in the UAE is customer service (35%)

In Singapore, the biggest driver of main bank status is the proximity of ATMs (43%)

41%

In Australia, only 24% of those with an iPhone 6 or newer are highly likely to use Apple Pay

41% of Australian smartphone owners are using Facebook messenger services at least once a week


32%

87%

A stable family life (32%) is the most important financial goal in Thailand

of Japanese SMEs still use cash for their expenses

41% 41% of SMEs in Hong Kong make online payments at least once a week

In Indonesia, the biggest driver of frequent credit card use is the ease of making repayments (43%)

NT

15%

T

PAS

CURR E

In New Zealand, 15% of banking customers currently hold a personal loan, and 31% have held one in the past

31%

10% of mortgage applications in New Zealand in the last year were conducted online


RFi GROUP EXPLAINS:

D I G I TA L D I S R U P T I O N H O W T H E US A D I F F E RS TO OT H E R G LO B A L M A R K E TS

3X

USAGE OF FINTECH IS 3 TIMES HIGHER THAN OTHER DEVELOPED MARKETS

USAGE OF ALTERNATIVE LENDING IS 5 TIMES HIGHER COMPARED TO OTHER DEVELOPED MARKETS

5X

Whatever your role within the payments ecosytem be sure to keep across the new wave of offerings - do not get left behind!

FINTECHS

A LT E R N AT I V E L E N D I N G

Among the mass affluent segment, usage of fintechs is more than double compared to any other developed market at 14%

Appetite to use an alternative lender is highest among the emerging affluent and mass affluent segments

1 in 4 mass affluent consumers would strongly consider a new banking product with a fintech twice as likely compared to other developed markets

Usage of alternative lending by the emerging affluent segment is 13 times higher

Usage is higher among millenials - 1 in 3 mass affluent millenials use a fintech

1 in 7 mature millenials (25-34) are likely to use an alternative lender - more than twice that of any other segment

* based on 30,000 consumer surveys across 15 markets in July/August 2016

LEARN HOW RFi GROUP HELPS OUR CLIENTS Contact us: Jaime Cabrera, Commercial Director - North & Latin America

Ryan Yuzon, General Manager - United States

T: +1 416 640 7126 | E: jcabrera@rfigroup.com

T: +1 415 315 1690 | E: ryuzon@rfigroup.com

Jonathan Withers, Sales Director - EMEA T: +44 203 862 2158 | jwithers@rfigroup.com

Eleanor Page, Global Commercial Director T: +61 2 9126 2620 | E: epage@rfigroup.com

w w w. r f i g r o u p . c o m


Welcome to the November edition of the Canadian Banker, a newsletter designed to give you an update on news and trends within the Canadian retail and commercial banking market, contextualized by RFi Group data. This edition examines the initial effects on the financial sector of the new mortgage rules that came into effect on October 17th. Although it will be a matter of time before the impacts can be seen, various predictions can be made, particularly through understanding consumer sentiment in the housing market. The payments industry has seen some exciting innovations this month. NanoPay tests their digital currency platform with retailors and Ask the Doctor announces its acceptance of bitcoin for its medical advice service. The CEO’s of both NanoPay and Ask the Doctor will be sharing their case studies, alongside some other fantastic speakers, at the Canadian Payments Innovation Forum, taking place on Wednesday 16th November at St. Andrews Club in Toronto. If you are interested in attending, or would like any further information, please feel free to get in contact. I hope you enjoy the issue.

Cyrielle Chiron General Manager - North America & Latin America RFi Group +61 1 416 644 8524 I cchiron@rfigroup.com


RFi GROUP INSIGHT

WILL NEW MORTGAGE RULES ADDRESS

AFFORDABILITY CONCERNS? BY ROBERT JORDAN

N

ew Canadian mortgage rules, which came into effect on October 17, are aimed at limiting foreign money in Canadian real estate to ensure that borrowers can take on mortgages they can afford. Through expanding stress testing for all insured mortgages, the hope is to reduce the level of risk involved. For example, home owners now have to show that they can afford their mortgage not only at the rate in their mortgage agreement

08 RFi MEDIA

but also at the Bank of Canada’s five-year fixed posted mortgage rate. As of September 28, the posted rate was 4.6%. The impact will be substantial, based on comments from lenders. The Bank of Canada estimated that more than 20% of all insured mortgages were contracted by households that have loan-to-income ratios of more than 450%. Until now, with interest rates at all-time lows, it has been possible for first-time buyers to qualify for large loans, even with modest


RFi GROUP INSIGHT

PLANNING HOME OWNERSHIP

53%

55%

70%

81%

82%

100%

31%

29%

0% 18 - 24

25 - 34

35 - 44

45 - 54

55 - 64

13%

7% 0%

10%

6%

1%

6%

5%

10%

6%

20%

22%

3%

9%

14%

29%

39%

50%

65 +

I am planning to buy a property to live in the next 12 months

I am planning to buy an investment property in the next 12 months

I am planning to buy a property but am not in a financial situation to do so in the next 12 months

I do not see myself buying a property in Canada for the seeable future

Source: RFi Group

incomes. However, others feel the new rules will place home ownership out of reach of first time buyers as they must, in effect, be able to qualify for their home loan using a higher interest rate than they will actually be paying on their mortgage. Foreign buyers will also be affected by a renewed drive to enforce existing rules. Sellers will need to prove that the home they sell is their primary residence to avoid capital gains tax exemption abuse. The stated goals of these rule changes are - according to Finance Minister Bill Morneau - to help middle class families who see prices “climbing often out of their reach”. RFi Group data suggests that affordability is a key issue. Canadians state that ‘owning their own home’ is the second most important financial priority, following a comfortable retirement. For potential first time home buyers, 62% said they did not see themselves buying a home in the foreseeable future. Those 18 to 24 were most likely to want to buy, but felt their financial situation would not allow it in the next 12 months. The new rules follow on the heels of a 15% tax on foreign home buyers set by the British Columbia provincial government in August. Average prices for homes sold in Vancouver fell by 19% from July to August. This is the largest CANADIAN BANKER 09


RFi GROUP INSIGHT

SENTIMENT FOR CANADIAN ECONOMY

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 18 - 24

25 - 34

35 - 44

45 - 54

Positive

55 - 64

Neutral

65 - 74

65 - 74

65 - 74

Negative

Source: RFi Group

RFi Group data suggests that consumer sentiment is already shaky; 50% of Canadians are concerned about the performance of the Canadian economy over the next 12 months, and only 19% have a positive outlook.

10 RFi MEDIA

ever intra-monthly drop — and this was before the new tougher federal mortgage rules came into effect. There is much discussion and little agreement on the effect the new federal mortgage rules will have on house prices and the wider economy. Even Finance Minister Bill Morneau says it is “impossible to say with absolute clarity” what the impacts of the new mortgage rules will be. RFi Group data suggests that consumer sentiment is already shaky; 50% of Canadians are concerned about the performance of the Canadian economy over the next 12 months, and only 19% have a positive outlook. Those under 35 have the most negative sentiment towards the Canadian economy. What can banks do to help Canadians realize their home ownership dreams? Whilst many Canadians wanting home ownership see it as out of their reach, they are also starting to save more. RFi Group data shows that 44% of under 35’s plan to save more in the next 12 months. The new mortgage rules will also mean many buyers will need to have a larger down payment, therefore banks can look to help these savers by offering savings products tailored to preparing for a mortgage down payment, such as Tax-Free Savings Accounts (TFSA) and Retirement Savings Plans (RSP). Interestingly, RFi Group data shows that those under 35 are less likely to own RRSPs, so this could be a potential new opportunity for banks to help their customers achieve home ownership.


RFi GROUP INSIGHT

PLANNING HOME OWNERSHIP

58% 58% 61%

42%

Tax-Free Savings Account (TSFA)

18 - 24

Retirement Savings Plan (RSP)

25 - 34

35 - 44

Retirement Income Fund (RIF)

45 - 54

5% 4% 11%

1% 4% 4% 3% 0% 0% 2%

0%

13%

8% 13%

0% 5% 5% 5%

20%

12%

13%

22%

22%

40%

36%

35%

48%

55%

60%

46% 48% 52% 52% 59%

80%

70%

100%

Education Savings Plan (ESP)

55 - 64

65 +

Disability Savings Plan (DSP)

Total

Source: RFi Group

CANADIAN BANKER 11


ECONOMIC & REGULATION

ECONOMIC AND REGULATION BY THANH VAN NGUYEN

CANADA ADDED 67,000 JOBS IN SEPTEMBER Canada added 67,000 jobs in September, the highest rate since 2012. According to Statistics Canada’s monthly labour force survey, the unemployment rate has remained unchanged at 7%, as the increase was heavy reliant upon part-time work and selfemployment. As Vincent Ferrao at the Labour Division of Statistics Canada said, “If you can’t find work, you create your own work.” Self-employment, both in part-time and full- time employment grew by 50,000 new jobs. Scotiabank’s Vice-President Derek Holt highlighted the importance of self-employment positions to the economy, but also stated that “sudden shifts in this category always raise suspicions about a self-reporting bias.”

12 RFi MEDIA

...the unemployment rate has remained unchanged at 7%, as the increase was heavy reliant upon parttime work and selfemployment.


ECONOMIC & REGULATION

50% of Canadian consumers are concerned about the country’s economic outlook, with almost 1 in 5 being very concerned.

IMF TRIMS CANADA’S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

BANK OF CANADA SUPPORTS THE GOVERNMENT’S MEASURES TO RESTRAIN THE HOUSING MARKET

Canada’s economic outlook was strengthened after the GDP rise in June and July, the strongest two month run for GDP growth in nearly five years. The growth was driven by continued recovery in oil production and petroleum product manufacturing, suggesting that the Canadian economy had overcome the worst. However, the IMF has now trimmed its projected economic growth by 0.2%, from the previous projections set in July of 1.4%. The IMF believes that the country’s economy will be “held back by the severe impact of wildfires in Alberta on oil output in the second quarter,” among other factors. Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Carolyn Wilkins acknowledged that Canada is still “going through important and complex adjustments,” referring to the domestic and international events that have affected the economy and undermined confidence over the past years. According to RFi Group data, 50% of Canadian consumers are concerned about the country’s economic outlook, with almost 1 in 5 being very concerned.

Bank of Canada is supporting the Trudeau government’s efforts to hinder the country’s debt-fuelled housing market. Senior Deputy Governor, Wilkins, believes that the newly announced measures to cool down the housing market (as discussed in this month’s insight piece) will “help mitigate risks to the financial system posed by household imbalances”. The Bank of Canada has long warned that interest rates could increase and that that Canadians should ensure they would still be able to afford their loan if the interest rates were to go up. The Bank of Canada has predicted that prices could fall by 5%, while home sales could drop as much as 10%. Analysts therefore forecast a hit to bank earnings and to the Canadian economy, as most of the growth generated has been from the housing market in the recent years. Although the economy is expected to have a slow growth of about 1.2% this year, Stuart Kraft, Strategist at National Bank Financial, stated that the new regulations could push the growth rate even lower to below 1%.

HOW CONCERNED ARE YOU ABOUT THE CANADIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AFFECTING YOU OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?

Not concerned at all

6%

13%

31%

1

2

31%

3

4

19%

Very concerned

5

Source: RFi Group Canadian Retail and Priority Banking Council 16 H1

CANADIAN BANKER 13


SAVINGS & BORROWING

SAVINGS & BORROWING BY CELINE ØDEGAARD

THE BRITISH COLOMBIA GOVERNMENT REDUCES MAXIMUM CHARGE ON PAYDAY LOANS The British Colombia government has announced a new set of regulations that will make the local borrowing rate for high-cost, short-term loans, the secondlowest in the country. The regulations, starting January 1st 2017, will mean that the maximum allowable charge for a payday loan will drop from $23 to $17 for every $100 borrowed. Charges for payday loans in British Columbia were as high as $30 for every $100 borrowed prior to 2009, and the Ministry of Public Safety and Solicitor General are now seeking to further protect the consumers who rely on payday loans. According to RFi Group data, 9 in 10 Canadians are concerned about their financial situation and almost 1 in 2 are likely to borrow less in the next 12 months.

OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS HOW LIKELY ARE YOU TO CHANGE THE AMOUNT YOU:

100%

6% 21%

48%

50%

60%

45% 19%

40% Save

Less

Borrow

The same

More

Source: RFi Group Canadian Retail and Priority Banking Council 16 H1

14 RFi MEDIA

First-time homebuyers who no longer qualify for an insured mortgage under the new regulations may tap into alternative funding sources in order to qualify for a conventional mortgage.


SAVINGS & BORROWING

NEW MORTGAGE REGULATION COULD CREATE A SHIFT TOWARDS SHADOW BANKING

RETIREMENT PLANS MUST BE ADJUSTED TO THE CONTINUING LOW INTEREST RATES

Some analysts believe that the new stricter regulations on mortgages might spur growth in the shadow banking market. Cannaccord Genuity analyst Gabriel Dechaine stated that “the government may simply be creating a different set of problems”. By introducing stricter regulations, borrowers might turn to operators outside the tight regulatory environment of the banks, whom already account for 10% of Canada’s housing credit. Prospective home buyers may also be left with no choice but to loan from alternative lenders, as they would no longer pass the strict stress testing. Dechaine predicts that “first-time homebuyers who no longer qualify for an insured mortgage under the new regulations may tap into alternative funding sources in order to qualify for a conventional (i.e. 20% down payment) mortgage.”

The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Stephen Poloz, has warned that Canadians must be ready to adjust their retirement plans to the continuing low interest rate. Poloz gave no indication that the interest rate, which has remained unchanged at 0.5% since the summer of 2015, will be going up anytime soon. Lower-for-longer interest rates are making it more difficult for Canadians to finance retirement through savings, and the central bank Head said that this could mean that many Canadians would need to put aside more funds, work longer than planned or change their investment plans. Brian DePratto, an economist at TD Bank also said that he believes the Bank of Canada is unlikely to increase interest rates until early 2019. According to RFi Group Canada Priority and Retail data, 1 in 5 Canadians are saying they are likely to save less over the next 12 months, which might be explained by the continuing low interest rate, which discourages consumers to save. CANADIAN BANKER 15


PAYMENTS & TECHNOLOGY

PAYMENTS & TECHNOLOGY BY MANISHA NOBEEN

APPLE PAY NOW AVAILABLE AT DESJARDINS Apple’s expansion continues with Desjardins the latest bank to accept Apple Pay. Desjardins customers are now able to use Apple Pay on their Visa credit cards, prepaid cards or Interac debit cards, with MasterCard to be supported in 2017. According to RFi Group, while 10% of Canadians have used a mobile wallet to make an in-store purchase, take up of Apple Pay has been slow with just 3% of Canadians having used Apple Pay.

Overall mobile wallet usage in Canada:

10%

Apple Pay usage in Canada:

3% Source: RFi Group Canadian Payments Council 16 H1

16 RFi MEDIA

Desjardins customers are now able to use Apple Pay on their Visa credit cards, prepaid cards or Interac debit cards, with MasterCard soon to be supported in 2017.


PAYMENTS & TECHNOLOGY

TORONTO START-UP TO DEVELOP CASHLESS FUTURE NanoPay, in partnership with Royal Canadian Mint, are testing their digital currency, ‘Mint Chip’, before launching it across Canada sometime next year. NanoPay selected 13 local retailers, including pubs, florists and cake shops, to test and help improve the digital currency platform. Feedback from one MintChipenabled retailer included the ability to add a tip or split a bill on their app. Simon Keogh, chief marketing officer of NanoPay, believes the service offers benefits to both merchants, providing them with cheaper payment processing, and consumers, who will be offered rewards.

MEDICAL ASSISTANCE PAID FOR VIA BITCOIN Canadian start-up company, ‘Ask The Doctor,’ an online medical advice service, has announced its acceptance of bitcoin currency to help further protect its patient privacy. According to the press release, users can pay for medical advice via bitcoin, which will allow them to keep healthcare related expenses hidden from their bank or credit card company. CEO of Ask The Doctor, Prakash Chand stated that the exposure of seeking medical advice visible on a card statement is a privacy concern and ‘while it does take some extra effort to complete anonymity using bitcoin, it’s certainly a large improvement over a credit card’. Ask The Doctor also plans on launching the bitcoin payment option on their mobile platform. CANADIAN BANKER 17


SME & COMMERCIAL

SME & COMMERCIAL BY KALLIA MANIKA

SMES STRUGGLING TO GET FINANCING A newly released report by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) examined SMEs access to bank financing between 2012 to 2015 and concluded that smaller businesses are finding it more challenging than larger ones to access capital. As result, small companies, whom are often in the most need of financing, end up relying on personal funds to support their businesses when they get rejected for loans. Indeed, the rejection rate for businesses with up to 5 employees is 22.3%, whereas for those with 50 to 499 employees, the rejection rate falls to 3.7%. “Small businesses face considerable barriers based on their size when they apply for bank financing,” Dan Kelly, CFIB President, stated. “While there has been much buzz about fintech and online lending in general, what small business owners want most from their bank is a personal relationship based on mutual understanding.” RFi Group data reveals that nearly 1 in 3 SMEs rely on bank loans to address their financing needs.

HOW DO YOU CURRENTLY ADDRESS THE FINANCING NEEDS OF YOUR BUSINESS? By number of employees? 1-5 Employees

Total

16% 8%

7%

11%

20%

18%

40%

14%

60%

29%

57%

80%

23%

RFi Group data reveals that nearly 1 in 3 rely on bank loans to address their financing needs.

51+ Employees

0% Loan from business banking institution

Loan from personal banking institution

Alternative lender

Source: RFi Group Canadian SME Banking and Payments Council 16 H2

18 RFi MEDIA


SME & COMMERCIAL

SCOTIABANK LAUNCHES ACCOUNT WITH A FULLY ONLINE ONBOARDING PROCESS FOR SMES In July, Scotiabank launched a personal chequing and savings account that can be opened online in less than 5 minutes. Now the bank is offering SMEs the same opportunity, with on-boarding taking less than 20 minutes for a new business account. “Our new online account opening experience for small business owners is easy to use, intuitive and fast. We engaged existing and potential customers throughout the design and build of this market-leading capability and are delighted with the outcome,” Laurent Mareschal, Senior Vice President of Small Business Banking at Scotiabank, stated. “We know that for small business owners, wherever they bank today, business is personal, and time is incredibly important. Rapid online account opening is another way that Scotiabank is committed to helping these important and primary drivers of the Canadian economy to bank whenever, and wherever they need to.”

TAX CREDIT FOR INVESTMENTS IN SMALL COMPANIES Alberta’s provincial government is introducing a 30% tax credit to those who invest in small businesses between now and 2019, according to Deron Bilous, the Economic Development Minister. This is an attempt to reinforce 4,400 new jobs as well as increase Alberta’s GDP by up to $500 million. “This tax credit puts the onus on investors to make the final decision on risk and efficiency, while keeping their money in Alberta and putting it toward growth-oriented firms,” Justin Smith, the Director of Policy, Research and Government Relations with the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, stated. The budget for the tax credit will be $90 million for three years and will be available for investments in proprietary technology research, development or commercialization, interactive digital media development, video postproduction, digital animation, and tourism.

CANADIAN BANKER 19


ABOUT RFi GROUP

RFi Group is a global intelligence and digital media provider focusing exclusively on financial services. We specialise in data and information gathering, customer based insight generation and business decision support for the world’s leading financial service providers. Our aim is to combine global intelligence and local knowledge to provide insightful, valuable and actionable recommendations, with a core focus on the provision of exceptional client service. OUR BRANDS

Covering 43 key global markets with regional offices in San Francisco, Toronto, London, Singapore, Hong Kong and Sydney, RFi Group consistently provides clients with tailored advice and independent intelligence relevant to their specific markets and business needs. EXCLUSIVE FOCUS ON BANKING AND FINANCE RFi Group’s expertise and deep understanding of the banking and finance sector delivers high-value outcomes. Our areas of expertise include: Retail Banking Mortgages Transaction Accounts Savings Accounts Consumer Lending Cards and Payments

For any advertisement enquiries, please contact your regional RFi office or email your enquiry to agrisaffe@rfigroup.com For more information, visit: www.rfigroup.com www.globalretailbanker.com

20 RFi MEDIA

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Our markets include Australia, Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Kuwait, Lebanon, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sri Lanka, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, UAE, UK, Uruguay, USA and Vietnam.

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UK RETAIL BANKER 21


RFi Group is a global intelligence and media provider focused exclusively on financial services. We specialise in data and information gathering, customer based insight generation and business decision support for the world’s leading financial service providers.

Our aim is to combine global intelligence and local knowledge to provide insightful, valuable and actionable recommendations, with a core focus on the provision of exceptional client service. Covering 40 key global markets with regional offices in San Francisco, Toronto, London, Hong Kong, Singapore and Sydney, RFi Group consistently provides clients with tailored advice and independent intelligence relevant to their specific markets and business needs. RFi Group delivers business intelligence via both proprietary and syndicated research programs.

Our syndicated research is delivered via our Financial Councils model. Upcoming North American Financial Council research includes: 2016 H2 Canadian Retail Banking Council – Coming soon 2016 H2 Canadian Payments Council – Coming soon 2016 H2 Canadian SME Banking & Payments Council – Results out now 2016 H2 Canadian Commercial Banking Council – Results out now 2016 H2 USA Priority & Retail Banking Council – Coming soon 2016 H2 Canadian Merchant Acquiring Council – Results out now 2016 H2 Canadian Insurance Council – Results out now 2016 H2 Canadian Digital Banking Council – Coming soon 2016 H2 Canadian SME Digital Banking Council – Coming soon

Find out how you can access RFi Group’s latest business intelligence Please contact Jaime Cabrera for further information Jaime Cabrera Commercial Director – Americas RFi Group jcabrera@rfigroup.com T: +1 416 644 8524

Profile for Adelle Grisaffe

Canadian Retail Banker - November 2016  

Canadian Retail Banker - November 2016